1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons in 2025 [2] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) anticipates that India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year, with total edible oil imports remaining at 16 million tons in the 2024/25 season ending in October [2] - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year [2] - Night - time trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a decline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than the expected 71%. With possible high - temperature stress in the southwest and improved export prospects, US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, due to the push for soybean meal substitution and a loose supply, Dalian soybean meal futures are weak in the short term [2] - Night - time trading of rapeseed and palm oil showed a slight decline, while soybean oil fluctuated strongly. Positive fundamentals in Indonesia and expected growth in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will support palm oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, with biofuel policies, the central price of edible oils is expected to rise slowly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8166 for soybean oil, 9104 for palm oil, 9492 for rapeseed oil, 3025 for soybean meal, 2671 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 92, 110, 36, - 70, - 78, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 1.22%, - 3.15%, - 2.26%, - 2.84%, and 0.29% [1] - For spreads, the current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 were 52, 44, 53, - 938, 1326, and 388 respectively, compared to previous values of 44, 20, 53, - 920, 1382, and 462 [1] - For ratio - spreads, the current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 were - 34, 270, 343, 1.13, 2.70, and 5141 respectively, compared to previous values of - 21, 314, 337, 1.12, 2.61, and 4979 [1] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4244 (Malaysian ringgit/ton) for BMD palm oil, 1025 (cents/bushel) for CBOT soybeans, 56 (cents/pound) for CBOT US soybean oil, and 283 (US dollars/ton) for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were 48, 3, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 0.24%, 0.86%, and - 0.84% [1] Domestic Spot Market - The current spot prices of domestic products were 8280 and 8330 for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, 9150 and 9050 for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, 9540 and 9460 for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, with percentage changes of 0.61%, 0.85%, 0.55%, 0.56%, - 0.42%, and - 0.42% respectively [1] - The current spot prices of other products were 2870 and 2890 for Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, 2570 and 2560 for Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, 7600 and 7550 for Linyi and Anyang peanuts, with percentage changes of - 2.05%, - 1.70%, - 3.38%, - 3.40%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - The current spot spreads were - 670 for the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, 1350 for the difference between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and 240 for the difference between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal, compared to previous values of - 670, 1310, and 239 respectively [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month products were - 311 for Malaysian palm oil, - 235 for US Gulf soybeans, - 62 for Brazilian soybeans, 93 for US West soybeans, 696 for Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and 369 for Canadian rapeseeds, compared to previous values of - 297, - 207, - 13, 129, 657, and 402 respectively [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts were 21,695 for soybean oil, 334 for palm oil, 3,487 for rapeseed oil, 40,714 for soybean meal, 0 for rapeseed meal, and 0 for peanuts, compared to previous values of 21,695, 854, 3,487, 41,446, 0, and 0 respectively [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are strengthening. The market's risk aversion demand has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st. The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. Although the impact of the US tariff policy on economic data is smaller than expected, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is showing strength due to the boost from industrial products. In the near term, there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 are 790.16, 795.02, 9431.00, and 9462.00 respectively. The price increases are 7.66, 8.30, 65.00, and 50.00, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.53%. The trading volumes are 25775, 31505, 85020, and 101074 respectively, and the open interests are 42972, 104970, 117554, and 220226 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 780, 790.91, and 9368.00 respectively. The price increases are 3, 7.83, and 142.00, with corresponding increases of 0.39%, 1.00%, and 1.54%. The price of London Silver is 39.27 with an increase of 0.37 and an increase rate of 0.95% [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 28,857 kg and 1,199,046 kg respectively, with a decrease of 5,420.00 kg in silver inventory. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 37,488,075 and 497,984,759 respectively, with increases of 295,931.68 and 339196 respectively [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.3550, 6309.62, 4.35, 68.67, and 7.1705 respectively. The changes are - 0.49%, 0.06%, - 0.68%, 0.01%, and - 0.01% respectively [2]. 3.5 Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The CFTC speculative net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 respectively [2]. 3.6 Macroeconomic News - **Trade Agreements**: US President Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero - tariff. Indonesia will remove 99% of its tariff barriers against the US, and all Indonesian products exported to the US will be subject to a 19% tariff. Indonesia will also supply key minerals to the US and sign major agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase Boeing aircraft, US agricultural products, and US energy [3]. - **Fed - related News**: Trump said that Fed Chairman Powell is about to leave office, and he believes that the interest rate is too high and should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more. The Trump administration has pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, and are expected to reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He also supports Powell to complete his term and calls for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions. A US congressman has accused Powell of perjury regarding the Fed building renovation and called for criminal charges [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20250723 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Li Ye - Qualification Number: F0285557 - Transaction Advisory Number: Z0002369 - Email: liye@sywgqh.com.cn - Phone: 021 - 50586241 Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are expectations of improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Price Trend**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Short - term price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Downstream demand in the domestic market is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,670 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,898 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 68.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 122,075 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Short - term price may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,854 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 4.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 118,225 tons with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,652 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.88 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,425 tons with a daily increase of 3,725 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,550 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 570 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,530 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 207.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 207,876 tons with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 185 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,015 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 25.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 264,925 tons with a daily decrease of 3,475 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 33,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 85.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,885 tons with a daily decrease of 50 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report covers various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping [1][9][11] - It analyzes market performance, price trends, and influencing factors for different commodities and financial instruments [2][3][9] - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies, central bank actions, and economic data are considered [2][9][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The Chinese foreign exchange market shows resilience despite complex external situations [1] - Gold and silver may continue to be strong due to market risk aversion and long - term drivers [2][14] - Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC production, US inventory data, and trade tensions [3][11] - Steel prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand balance and cost factors [4][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Main News - **International News**: Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, including tariff adjustments and market access [5] - **Domestic News**: At the end of Q2, RMB real estate loan balances increased, while personal housing loan balances decreased slightly [6] - **Industry News**: Russia maintains its forecast for grain production and expects significant grain exports [7] 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - Various outer - market indices and commodities showed different price changes on July 22 compared to July 21, including gains in the S&P 500, London gold, and losses in ICE Brent crude [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties **Financial** - **Stock Index**: A - shares are considered to have high investment value in the medium - to - long term, with different indices having different characteristics [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Long - term treasury bond prices are falling, and market funds are relatively stable. External policies and economic data affect the market [10] **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling, affected by OPEC production increases, US inventory changes, and trade tensions [3][11] - **Methanol**: Short - term prices are expected to be bullish due to changes in production load and inventory [12] - **Rubber**: Prices may slowly rise due to supply - side factors, while demand - side support is weak [13] **Metal** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are likely to remain strong, but there are risks of Trump's tariff threats being realized [2][14] - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [15] - **Zinc**: Prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to factors like US tariffs and production [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term prices may be strong, but there is no basis for medium - term reversal [17] **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: Prices may be strong in the short term due to demand support and supply - demand imbalances in the medium term [19] - **Steel**: Prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand and cost factors [4][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may rise further in the short term but are likely to peak after late August [21] **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, affected by US soybean conditions and domestic supply [22] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be supported, and the overall market is expected to be in a volatile pattern [23] **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a weak state, and the peak of the seasonal peak season may be approaching [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [2] - From a medium - and long - term perspective, A - shares have a relatively high investment cost - performance. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4118.80, 4109.80, 4076.20, and 4047.60 respectively, with increases of 43.60, 45.40, 44.60, and 45.40. The trading volumes were 29517.00, 69503.00, 14593.00, and 3790.00, and the open interests were 47302.00, 162828.00, 52902.00, and 4515.00, with increases of 4202.00, 9997.00, 1211.00, and 982.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2794.80, 2796.80, 2798.60, and 2798.80 respectively, with increases of 23.20, 25.00, 24.00, and 22.60. The trading volumes were 15532.00, 37371.00, 5645.00, and 1250.00, and the open interests were 21381.00, 65052.00, 14218.00, and 1127.00, with increases of 2695.00, 5322.00, 844.00, and 90.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6183.20, 6129.40, 6001.20, and 5888.20 respectively, with increases of 72.60, 69.60, 68.80, and 70.80. The trading volumes were 26660.00, 49010.00, 12904.00, and 4002.00, and the open interests were 54215.00, 108997.00, 56846.00, and 5268.00, with changes of 1591.00, 2193.00, - 123.00, and 874.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6590.00, 6515.40, 6331.00, and 6172.80 respectively, with increases of 44.80, 42.80, 42.60, and 44.40. The trading volumes were 39378.00, 118700.00, 26255.00, and 7964.00, and the open interests were 62728.00, 178632.00, 77150.00, and 9821.00, with changes of 367.00, - 302.00, - 1405.00, and 1357.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 9.00, 2.00, - 53.80, and - 74.60 respectively, compared with previous values of - 9.80, 0.20, - 51.00, and - 72.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4118.96, 2792.18, 6213.41, and 6637.10 respectively, with increases of 0.82, 0.72, 0.85, and 0.38. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 257.60, 68.31, 246.21, and 301.66, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 4508.74, 1293.95, 3136.62, and 3959.15 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, energy, raw materials, and industry had relatively high growth rates of 3.97%, 2.64%, and 2.38% respectively, while real - estate finance and information technology had declines of - 0.57% and - 0.06% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to CSI 300 were - 0.16, - 9.16, - 42.76, and - 71.36 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 11.01, - 20.81, - 52.01, and - 77.21 [1] - **SSE 50 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to SSE 50 were 2.62, 4.62, 6.42, and 6.62 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 1.24, - 1.04, 2.36, and 2.56 [1] - **CSI 500 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to CSI 500 were - 30.21, - 84.01, - 212.21, and - 325.21 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 54.71, - 105.71, - 231.91, and - 344.91 [1] - **CSI 1000 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to CSI 1000 were - 47.10, - 121.70, - 306.10, and - 464.30 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 76.66, - 149.06, - 335.46, and - 493.46 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic Major Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3581.86, 11099.83, 6881.54, and 2310.86 respectively, with increases of 0.62%, 0.84%, 0.58%, and 0.61% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 25130.03, 39774.92, 6309.62, and 24041.90 respectively, with changes of 0.54%, - 0.11%, 0.06%, and - 1.09% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Policy in Shenzhen**: Since the issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen, Deepening Reform and Innovation, and Expanding Opening - up", relevant departments in Shenzhen have strengthened communication with central ministries. A series of reform results, including "the return of Hong Kong - listed Greater Bay Area enterprises to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for listing", are expected to be implemented within this year [2] - **Real - Estate Loans**: At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] - **US Trade Agreements**: The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and Indonesia will cancel 99% of tariff barriers on US goods [2] - **Rural Highway Regulations**: The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Data Industry**: As of the first half of this year, the National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities, built 524 data sets, and served 163 large models. In the second half of the year, it plans to layout and build a number of data industry cluster pilot areas [2] - **Shipbuilding Industry**: In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new order volume, and order backlog accounted for 51.7%, 68.3%, and 64.9% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tons, and 47.2%, 64.0%, and 57.6% in terms of compensated gross tons respectively [2] - **Telecom Industry**: In the first half of the year, the cumulative telecom business revenue reached 9055 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1%. The user scale of 5G, gigabit networks, and the Internet of Things continued to expand [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2509 contract down 0.03% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, while those in the US, Germany, and Japan declined. The central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan, and the market capital was relatively stable. Given the complex external environment, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the price fluctuations of Treasury bond futures may increase in the short term due to the rise in market risk appetite [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts TS2509, TS2512, TF2509, TF2512, T2509, T2512, TL2509, and TL2512 all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.45%. Open interest for some contracts increased (e.g., TF2509, T2509, TL2512), while others decreased (e.g., TS2509, TF2512). Trading volumes varied across contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts changed compared to the previous values, with some widening and some narrowing [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the active CTD bonds of each Treasury bond futures contract was between 1.1176% and 1.6478%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - SHIBOR7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates decreased by 1.7bp, 0.95bp, and 0.9bp respectively, while SHIBOR overnight, DR001, and FR001 also decreased, and GC001 increased slightly [2] Spot Market - **China's Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of China's key - term Treasury bonds, including 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y, generally increased, with the 10Y yield rising 0.92bp to 1.68%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.74bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 6bp, 5bp, and 3.3bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads varied [2] Macro and Industry Information - **Macro News**: The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. China's July LPR remained unchanged, and the market expects a further decline in the second half of the year. There are important diplomatic events and new regulations such as the "Housing Rental Regulations" [3] - **Industry Information**: Most money - market interest rates declined. US Treasury bond yields decreased across the board, mainly driven by the rise in the European Treasury bond market and increased concerns about US - EU trade negotiations [3] - **Comments and Strategies**: Long - end Treasury bonds fell significantly, and the central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal. The market capital was stable. With a complex external environment, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and short - term price fluctuations of Treasury bond futures may increase [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices testing smelting output, and the mixed factors of stable downstream demand in China (positive growth in power and auto industries, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real estate). Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and the expected improvement in concentrate supply and possible recovery of smelting supply this year, along with mixed downstream demand (positive growth in auto and stable growth in infrastructure, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real estate). Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Information Copper - Night - time copper prices closed flat. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,700 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 160 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,867 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 66.96 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 122,175 tons, and the daily change was 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 1.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 119,100 tons, and the daily change was - 2,375 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 90 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,641 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.18 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 430,700 tons, and the daily change was 3,500 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,550 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,010 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,510 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 205.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 207,576 tons, and the daily change was 294 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 185 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,015 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 25.97 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 268,400 tons, and the daily change was - 2,550 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,675 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 53.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,935 tons, and the daily change was - 100 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have strengthened. Market risk aversion has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled due to the rebound in US CPI. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of Trump's tariff threats being realized. Gold has long - term driving forces but is hesitant to rise at high prices, while silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue their relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 779.32 and 783.66 respectively, with daily increases of 5.36 (0.69%) and 5.28 (0.68%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9242.00 and 9290.00 respectively, with daily increases of 102.00 (1.12%) and 104.00 (1.13%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 53205 and 97403, and the trading volumes are 47780 and 43343 respectively. The positions of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 141275 and 210744, and the trading volumes are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are - 8.40 and - 12.74, and those of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are - 119.00 and - 167.00 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 770.92 and 770.84 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.28 (- 0.17%) and - 1.24 (- 0.16%). The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.85, with a change of - 7.135 (- 0.21%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9123.00, with a change of 14.00 (0.15%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.14, with a change of 0.28 (0.75%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506 and沪银2512 - 沪银2506 are 4.34 and 48 respectively. The current value of the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 84.50, and the current values of the Shanghai - to - London gold and silver ratios are 7.18 and 7.44 respectively [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold are 28,872 kg and 37,143,884 respectively, with changes of 0 and an increase of 346,352.72 compared to the previous day. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver are 1,217,085 kg and 496,688,541 respectively, with changes of an increase of 4,296.00 kg and a decrease of 493426 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with daily increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous day. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of an increase of 481 and a decrease of 1451 [2]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Japan's Political Situation**: In Japan's 27th Senate election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to serve, while the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party Noda Yoshihiko said he would consider a no - confidence motion against the cabinet if Ishiba remained in office [3]. - **US Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The Trump administration's "Great and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next ten years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, and the Trump administration is trying to influence market expectations through new Fed chair candidates [3]. - **Trade Issues**: The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool." Trump's tariff negotiation stance has hardened as the August 1st deadline approaches. Trump has postponed the new trade tariff deadline, but there is a risk of the tariff threat being realized [3]. - **EU's New Policy**: The EU Commission is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, which may affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year [3].

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比 | | --- | --- | | | 上月同期增加6.19%。2、马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚7月1-20日的棕榈油出口量 | | 行业 | 环比减少7.31%。3、Saveraa International：截至2025年7月15日，印度港口植物油总库存量已 | | | 攀升至855679公吨，较6月30日的722918公吨，在短短半个月内激增18%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡下行，美国与印度尼西亚达成贸易协议，将大豆关税从32%降至19%，协 | | | 议中包含印尼采购45亿美元美国农产品（涵盖大豆、玉米和棉花）。作为美国大豆第五大进口 | | | 国，印尼此举有力提振了市场对未来美豆出口需求的信心。同时近期民间出口商向未知目的地销 | | | 售12万吨美国大豆，市场对于中美贸易关系改善预期增加。叠加美豆生柴政策下，需求仍将给美 | | | 豆价格提供支撑，美豆期价出现回升。国内供应宽松格局仍将施压上方空间，短期受进口成本支 | | | 撑预计连 ...