| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.398 | 105.875 | 105.870 | 108.415 | 108.185 | 116.16 | 115.93 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.462 | 102.416 | 105.885 | 105.865 | 108.410 | 108.190 | 116.13 | 115.9 | | | 涨跌 | -0.008 | -0.018 | -0.010 | 0.005 | 0.005 | -0.005 | 0.030 | 0.030 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 15th Five - Year Plan still focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be a long - term direction [2]. - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2]. - Near the end of the year, funds are relatively cautious, and the market style is more balanced compared to the third quarter. From the current trend, the market is still expected to maintain a long - term and slow - bull trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4614.00, 4600.40, 4572.40, and 4531.60 respectively, with declines of - 75.00, - 72.80, - 68.60, and - 65.60. The trading volumes were 22853.00, 67288.00, 14864.00, and 4984.00, and the open interest changes were - 424.00, 543.00, 3546.00, and 1709.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3034.00, 3030.40, 3025.80, and 3017.00, with declines of - 36.60, - 37.40, - 37.40, and - 39.40. The trading volumes were 9482.00, 32072.00, 5074.00, and 1605.00, and the open interest changes were - 824.00, 1112.00, 452.00, and 66.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7208.00, 7137.40, 6960.00, and 6762.00, with declines of - 111.40, - 113.40, - 109.20, and - 104.00. The trading volumes were 22554.00, 71699.00, 16437.00, and 5922.00, and the open interest changes were - 1650.00, 610.00, 1362.00, and 986.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7468.40, 7372.00, 7140.00, and 6913.40, with declines of - 81.80, - 90.80, - 91.80, and - 88.80. The trading volumes were 34335.00, 125074.00, 23113.00, and 10057.00, and the open interest changes were - 1680.00, - 1368.00, 2359.00, and 1746.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM next - month minus current - month contracts were - 13.60, - 3.60, - 70.60, and - 96.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 16.60, - 3.80, - 66.40, and - 87.60 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4628.14, 3038.43, 7235.46, and 7502.76, with declines of - 1.57%, - 1.15%, - 1.63%, and - 1.16% respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 192.09, 48.80, 205.86, and 271.97, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 4447.20, 1203.76, 3104.85, and 4062.93 respectively [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among CSI 300 industry indexes, energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption had declines of - 1.04%, - 2.09%, - 1.63%, and - 1.22% respectively. Main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology had declines of - 1.09%, - 0.83%, - 0.40%, and - 3.39% respectively. Telecommunication services and public utilities had declines of - 2.87% and - 0.71% respectively [1]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's spot - futures basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) minus the CSI 300 index were - 14.14, - 27.74, - 55.74, and - 96.54 respectively, compared to previous two - day values of - 8.47, - 25.07, - 56.27, and - 100.67 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's spot - futures basis values of IH contracts minus the SSE 50 index were - 4.43, - 8.03, - 12.63, and - 21.43 respectively, compared to previous two - day values of - 1.07, - 4.87, - 9.67, and - 14.07 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's spot - futures basis values of IC contracts minus the CSI 500 index were - 27.46, - 98.06, - 275.46, and - 473.46 respectively, compared to previous two - day values of - 19.89, - 86.29, - 267.89, and - 469.89 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's spot - futures basis values of IM contracts minus the CSI 1000 index were - 34.36, - 130.76, - 362.76, and - 589.36 respectively, compared to previous two - day values of - 24.58, - 112.18, - 344.58, and - 578.58 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4002.76, 13289.01, 8077.94, and 3134.32, with declines of - 0.39%, - 1.03%, - 1.31%, and - 1.40% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26696.41, 50911.76, 6846.61, and 24088.06, with increases of 0.18%, 1.26%, 0.21%, and 0.53% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - National People's Congress Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji will conduct an official friendly visit to New Zealand and Australia from November 19th to 25th [2]. - Han Wenxiu proposed to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, and accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [2]. - Hong Kong's economy is expected to achieve positive growth for the third consecutive year, and the economy is expected to continue growing next year [2]. - By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the balance of insurance funds' investment reached 37.46 trillion yuan, with the book balance of stocks at 3.62 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 50% compared to the end of last year. The third - quarter increase was 5524 billion yuan. Bank stocks remained the favorite of insurance funds, and industries such as steel, communication, and food and beverage were heavily increased in the third quarter, while power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and transportation were reduced [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - In the era of the stock housing market, the substitution effect of second - hand housing for new housing is increasing. From January to October, the online signing area of second - hand housing transactions in China increased by 4.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45% of the total transaction volume. In more than a dozen cities, the online signing area of second - hand housing transactions increased by more than 10% year - on - year [2]. - In 2025, the global clothing market size is expected to reach 1.84 trillion US dollars, accounting for 1.6% of the global GDP [2]. - In the third quarter, many large Wall Street hedge funds reduced their positions in the "Magnificent Seven" US stocks and increased their investments in application software, e - commerce, and payment fields. They also reduced their risk exposure to well - known enterprises in the healthcare and energy sectors [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Weekend night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. Suggest paying attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is generally high. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, it may fluctuate within a range. Suggest paying attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (CNY/ton) | Domestic Basis (CNY/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,820 | 25 | 10,846 | 3.88 | 136,175 | - 75 | | Aluminum | 21,750 | - 20 | 2,859 | - 28.05 | 553,200 | 9,125 | | Zinc | 22,370 | 15 | 3,015 | 175.85 | 37,800 | 1,925 | | Nickel | 117,240 | - 2,330 | 14,880 | - 194.13 | 251,970 | - 144 | | Lead | 17,445 | - 190 | 2,066 | - 23.09 | 223,975 | - 1,250 | | Tin | 292,000 | 5,330 | 36,860 | - 87.50 | 3,055 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily releasing. However, there are concerns about the January contract as the peak - demand season enters the second half, leading to a cooling market sentiment and mainly downward - trending futures. After continuous declines since November released short - selling pressure, the market may gradually stabilize [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6853, 6915, and 6956 respectively, with price increases of 35, 22, and 18, and percentage increases of 0.51%, 0.32%, and 0.26%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6474, 6575, and 6613 respectively, with price changes of - 6, - 2, and 1, and percentage changes of - 0.09%, - 0.03%, and 0.02% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 347525, 54367, and 707 respectively, and the open interests were 540755, 113633, and 2285 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 40847, 1248, and - 4. For PP, the trading volumes were 308865, 62940, and 1407 respectively, and the open interests were 622052, 154690, and 8990 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 6371, 7458, and 757 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 62, - 41, and 103 respectively, compared to previous values of - 75, - 45, and 120. For PP, the current spreads were - 101, - 38, and 139 respectively, compared to previous values of - 97, - 35, and 132 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2061 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 553 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6550, 6950 - 7450, and 6800 - 7050 respectively. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7400, 6250 - 6450, and 6400 - 6550 respectively [2] News - On Friday (November 14), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.09 per barrel, up $1.40 or 2.39% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.71 - $60.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.39 per barrel, up $1.38 or 2.19% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.36 - $64.87 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Some varieties have investment ratings, with corn, cotton, and others being "Bearish", while股指 (IM), 股指 (IC), etc. are "Bullish" [5] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government adheres to expanding domestic demand and promoting a more resilient market. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on technological self - reliance, and the technology sector is a long - term investment direction. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow into the domestic market. Some commodities have specific supply - demand situations and price trends [1][2] Summary by Section 1. Current Economic Situation and Policies - China's October economic data shows that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and from January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. The government is promoting consumption policies and implementing an active fiscal policy [1] 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed trends. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and the stock market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on technological self - reliance [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and the market funds are relatively loose. However, due to the weakening of economic data and the return of US bond yields, the short - term bond price has declined, but the current economic situation still provides some support for short - term treasury bond futures [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 1.38%. An attack on a port in Ukraine led to a suspension of oil exports, but the overall downward trend is hard to change as US oil demand is lower than last year and the number of drilling rigs is decreasing [3][14] - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading fell 2.21%. Coastal inventories are accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak [15] - **Rubber**: Supply pressure may increase as the rubber - tapping season progresses, but bad weather in producing areas may support prices. The short - term trend is expected to continue to rebound [16] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Downstream demand is stable, but there are concerns about the January contract. After the release of short - selling pressure, it may stabilize [17] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious [18] Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but smelting output is growing. An Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term [20] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate in a range. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [21] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke market showed a strong trend at night. Steel production and inventory data have changed, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [22] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean meal market was strongly volatile at night. The USDA report reduced the US soybean yield and inventory, but the market fell due to insufficient bullish factors. Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][23] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and rapeseed oils showed different trends. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, but the rapeseed oil market was boosted by supply concerns and a bio - fuel plan, leading to a short - term strong and volatile market [24] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - building stage, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The domestic sugar market follows the international trend but may be supported by the new - season cost [25][26] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is weak. As the cotton - picking season in Xinjiang nears the end, the supply pressure may lead to a downward price trend [27] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe market fell 1.16%. The SCFI European line price increased slightly, but the market is weak, and the year - end peak - season price increase is not as expected [28] 3. Daily News International News - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US President Trump's plan to distribute a $2000 "dividend" tariff subsidy to US citizens needs congressional approval [6] Domestic News - From January to October, the national second - hand housing transaction net - signing area increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the proportion of second - hand housing in the total transaction volume reached 45% [7] Industry News - From January to October, the national railway passenger volume reached 3.95 billion, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, setting a record high [8] 4. Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.05%, the European STOXX50 decreased by 0.90%, the FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 1.33%, the US dollar index increased by 0.11%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 1.87%, and other foreign market varieties also had corresponding price changes [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of short - term treasury bond futures [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends on the previous trading day. The T2512 contract rose 0.06% and its trading volume increased [2] - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates generally declined on the previous trading day. SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 2.8bp, DR007 rate dropped 3bp, and GC007 rate dropped 8.6bp [2] - The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined on the previous trading day. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.5bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 30.38bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield dropped 0.4bp [2] 3.4 Macro News and Strategy - The central bank conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 30, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [3] - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to the stability of the economic situation [3] - The new 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan and promote economic development [3] - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the target level [3] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, while US treasury bond yields rose collectively [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefins follow the trend of crude oil. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited. After a short - term rebound in the market, it may start to fluctuate in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6729, 6968, and 7030 respectively, with price drops of - 41, - 45, and - 39 compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 214616, 21528, and 268 respectively. The January - May, May - September, and September - January spreads were - 62, - 36, and 98 respectively, with changes from the previous values [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 7066, 6651, and 6721 respectively, with price drops of - 34, - 44, and - 33 compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 237497, 32465, and 619 respectively. The January - May, May - September, and September - January spreads were - 70, - 8, and 78 respectively, with changes from the previous values [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and (Semi -) Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221, 5940, 550, 5600, 6460, and 8700 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7000 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7200 - 7500 respectively; for PP, they were 6550 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, remaining the same as the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (October 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.57 per barrel, up $0.09 or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.00 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.12% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States agreed to strengthen cooperation in the economic and trade fields, it did not significantly boost the stock index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the RMB's appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the increase ranging from 62.40 to 68.60. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 74,172.00, and the holding volume of IF next - month contracts was 153,415.00. The holding volume of IF contracts generally decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 16.20 to 19.00. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 41,888.00, and the holding volume of IH next - month contracts was 66,853.00. The holding volume of IH contracts generally increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 20.20 to 28.40. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 82,049.00, and the holding volume of IC next - month contracts was 133,968.00. The holding volume of IC contracts generally decreased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 55.20 to 67.80. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 162,104.00, and the holding volume of IM next - month contracts was 190,757.00. The holding volume of IM contracts generally increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for different contracts were - 13.60 for IF, - 1.60 for IH, - 56.40 for IC, and - 74.00 for IM, all slightly different from the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.62%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 1.27%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.11%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and other industries showed different degrees of decline, while the main consumption industry increased slightly by 0.01% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts for the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.44%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.33%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 2.46%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.23%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.12% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The leaders of China and the United States agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade, energy and other fields, and promote people - to - people exchanges. The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, including the cancellation of some tariffs by the US. The A - share listed companies' third - quarter reports showed that the total revenue in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The tax - free shop policy will be improved starting from November 1 [2] 6. Industry Information - The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in the third quarter of 2025 was 3.07%. 21 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization were approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The pilot area for pension wealth management products will be expanded to the whole country. The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes fell. After the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The power equipment industry led the rise, and the communication electronics industry led the decline. The market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds are expected to flow in. The market style may shift towards value [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed higher at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets has increased. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to the different inventory situations at home and abroad, the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - time copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output is growing. Grid investment is growing, power source investment is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - Price trend: Likely to be strong [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - time zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations differ [2]. - Price trend: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 87,910 | - 90 | 10,930 | - 19.66 | 135,350 | 775 | | Aluminum | 21,230 | - 10 | 2,870 | - 0.99 | 462,750 | - 2,900 | | Zinc | 22,325 | - 75 | 3,045 | 132.96 | 35,200 | - 50 | | Nickel | 120,660 | - 1,710 | 15,250 | - 203.99 | 251,706 | 270 | | Lead | 17,360 | - 210 | 2,022 | - 35.12 | 224,875 | - 4,800 | | Tin | 283,040 | 1,500 | 35,720 | 10.02 | 2,830 | 130 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - asset is becoming more prominent, but it is adjusting after a rapid rise. Copper prices are likely to be supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages. The downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse. Market styles of stocks may become more balanced, and bonds are expected to maintain a good operation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Chief Comments - The European Central Bank keeps its three major interest rates unchanged. The US cancels a 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and suspends a 24% tariff for another year, among other trade - related concessions. Most domestic futures closed down at night [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded last night after a continuous decline. Although the Fed cut interest rates and ended QT, the driving factors weakened, leading to an adjustment after a rapid rise. Long - term, gold's status as a safe - asset is strengthening [2]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. Supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may cause a supply - demand gap, supporting prices in the long - run [3]. - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.24% at night. OPEC's supply increased in September, and the downward trend remains [3]. c. Daily Main News - **International News**: The eurozone's Q3 GDP had better - than - expected growth, but member states' performance diverged [6]. - **Domestic News**: The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, covering issues such as trade, investment, and TikTok [7]. - **Industry News**: 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in project investment [8]. d. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined. The US dollar index rose, ICE Brent crude oil fell slightly, and London gold and silver prices increased [10]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Although Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen economic cooperation, the stock index did not rise significantly. The market style may become more balanced [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's support for a loose monetary policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision affected the bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse as OPEC supply increased [14]. - **Methanol**: Market fluctuations intensified due to uncertainties, with inventory rising and potential large - scale imports [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, and demand support is limited. Weather may affect production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: They followed the crude oil trend. Demand was stable, and the market is likely to start oscillating after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the analysis in the key varieties section, with a long - term upward trend and short - term adjustment [19]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, with long - term price support [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply may increase, and the price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation, affected by steel demand and inventory [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well. The US soybean price is affected by trade negotiations, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [23]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production is expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure suppresses the short - term market [24]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [25]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation, supported by the purchase price [26]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment is affected by Sino - US trade policies. The price may have a chance to rise during the peak season [27].