报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国稳定币监管立法落地，中国工业经济韧性凸显 美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简 称《天才法案》），标志着美国稳定币监管立法进入实施阶段。 美国众议院 17 日以 308 票赞成、122 票反对的结果，通过了这一法案，该法案旨在为"锚 定"美元的稳定币制定监管框架。国内方面今年上半年工业和信息化领域主要 经济指标总量和增速稳步提升，规上工业增加值同比增长 6.4%，在一季度良好 开局的基础上展现出较强韧性，制造业增加值占 GDP 比重达到 25.7%，基本保 持稳定。下一步，多项政策举措将筑牢工业经济基本盘、持续培育发展动能。 其中，工业和信息化部将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点 行业稳增长工作方案；会同相关部门完善支持新型工业化的金融政策，纵深推 进产融合作；在政策、人才、资金、市场等方面持续优化企业发展环境。 重点品种：黄金、钢材、股指 钢材：当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水仍处高位缓慢回落的情况下，钢材 供应端压力逐步体现。钢材库存延续去化，钢材出口虽面临关税和反倾销影响， 但钢坯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading session, with the T2509 contract down 0.09% and little change in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed movements, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US 10Y Treasury bond yields declined, German 10Y yields rose, and Japanese 10Y yields fell. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures, but the "anti - involution" policy drives some commodity prices to strengthen, increasing the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, for TS2509, the closing price was 102.434, down 0.006 (-0.01%); for TS2512, it was 102.498, down 0.004 (0.00%); for TF2509, 105.990, down 0.055 (-0.05%); for TF2512, 106.050, down 0.065 (-0.06%); for T2509, 108.790, down 0.095 (-0.09%); for T2512, 108.860, down 0.080 (-0.07%); for TL2509, 120.46, down 0.270 (-0.22%); for TL2512, 120.3, down 0.260 (-0.22%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: Open interest for TS2509 was 113080 (down 174), TS2512 was 8999 (down 110), TF2509 was 157810 (up 943), TF2512 was 37446 (up 721), T2509 was 192316 (down 630), T2512 was 37438 (up 270), TL2509 was 115390 (down 1221), TL2512 was 32595 (up 128). Trading volumes were 22678 for TS2509, 1786 for TS2512, 44183 for TF2509, 2983 for TF2512, 51738 for T2509, 5384 for T2512, 72268 for TL2509, and 5564 for TL2512 [2] - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread for TS was -0.064 (previous value -0.062), TF was -0.060 (previous value -0.070), T was -0.070 (previous value -0.055), and TL was 0.160 (previous value 0.170) [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of active CTD bonds for each contract was between 1.3735% - 1.8005%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed movements. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.75bp to 1.67%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.02bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: US 10Y Treasury bond yields fell 3bp, German 10Y yields rose 1bp, and Japanese 10Y yields fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 18, the central bank conducted 1875 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 1028 billion yuan. This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 2000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits [3] - **LPR**: The latest LPR will be announced on July 21, and it is widely expected to remain unchanged [3] - **Trade and Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to US and Canadian trade - related measures, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' rights [3] - **Hydropower Project**: The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [3] - **Fed**: Fed Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged the Fed to cut rates. The US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On July 18, most money market interest rates showed mixed movements, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields declined across the board, mainly due to Waller's dovish remarks and the decline in inflation expectations [3] Comment and Strategy - The central bank's supportive monetary policy supports Treasury bond futures prices, but the "anti - involution" policy boosts commodity prices, increasing the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

Report Overview - The report is the "20250721 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report", focusing on the market conditions of copper and zinc, and also presenting domestic market basis data and LME spot premium/discount data [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market - Weekend night - session copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2] - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] Zinc Market - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed higher. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] Domestic Market Basis Data - Copper basis is 115 yuan/ton, aluminum basis is 120 yuan/ton, zinc basis is - 15 yuan/ton, nickel basis is - 1750 yuan/ton, lead basis is - 195 yuan/ton, and tin basis is 760 yuan/ton [2][3] LME Spot Premium/Discount Data - Copper LME spot premium/discount is - 53.76 dollars/ton, aluminum is - 0.78 dollars/ton, zinc is 4.75 dollars/ton, nickel is - 194.43 dollars/ton, lead is - 24.20 dollars/ton, and tin is 44.00 dollars/ton [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic supply glut will still pressure the upside space of protein meal, but it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short - term due to import cost support. For oils and fats, the fundamentals have limited changes, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties were 8072, 8796, etc. with corresponding price changes and percentage changes. For example, soybean oil rose 30 with a 0.37% increase, and palm oil rose 74 with a 0.85% increase. There were also changes in spreads and ratios. [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures such as BMD palm oil were 4158, with price changes and percentage changes. For example, BMD palm oil rose 49 with a 1.19% increase. [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices of domestic products like Tianjin first - grade soybean oil were 8230, with corresponding percentage changes. For example, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil rose 0.24%. There were also data on spot basis and spot spreads. [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 417, - 248, etc., with changes compared to the previous values. [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, etc. were 22,131, 854, etc., with changes compared to the previous values. [1] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 3.5% compared to the same period last month according to ITS data. The Canadian rapeseed crop had different excellent - good rates in different provinces. [2] Comments and Strategies - **Protein Meal**: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, reducing the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, and Indonesia will purchase 4.5 billion US dollars of US agricultural products. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations is expected to increase, and the US soybean price is supported by the biodiesel policy. The domestic supply is loose, but the continuous meal is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [2] - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report this month was neutral to bearish, but the high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports increased sharply, especially palm oil imports which increased by 60% in June. Palm oil prices are expected to be supported, and the overall oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares are considered to have a high investment cost - performance ratio. Specifically, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the increase ranging from 22.20 to 36.40. The trading volume of IF next - quarter contracts was the highest at 59,958.00, and the position of IF current - month contracts decreased by 23,303.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts also rose, with an increase of 17.80 - 28.80. The trading volume of IH next - quarter contracts was 35,272.00, and the position of IH current - month contracts decreased by 12,236.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased, with an increase of 8.60 - 28.80. The trading volume of IC next - quarter contracts was 41,183.00, and the position of IC current - month contracts decreased by 19,812.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts went up, with an increase of 9.60 - 32.00. The trading volume of IM next - quarter contracts was 104,691.00, and the position of IM current - month contracts decreased by 28,897.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all changed compared to the previous values [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all rose, with the SSE 50 having the highest increase of 0.74%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the raw materials industry had the highest increase of 2.73%, while the information technology industry decreased by 0.33% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different terms changed compared to the previous two days' values [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.50% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.33%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Indexes all decreased [1] 3.5 Macro Information - 16 central enterprises signed 75 industrial project investment agreements with the Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total investment of 317.537 billion yuan, focusing on key areas such as clean energy and infrastructure [2] - In the first half of 2025, the main economic indicators in the industrial and information technology fields showed steady growth, and multiple policy measures will be taken to strengthen the industrial economy [2] - 9 provinces have released their H1 GDP data, with 4 provinces in central China outperforming the national average, and Hubei having the highest growth rate of 6.2% [2] - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, with a pre - happy ratio of about 43.77%, and the performance was quite differentiated [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 3rd China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo closed in Beijing, with over 1200 exhibitors and more than 210,000 on - site and online visitors, a 5% increase from the previous session, and over 6000 cooperation agreements and intentions signed [2] - In H1 2025, the Beijing real estate market showed an upward trend, but the market heat was uneven, with some high - quality properties having high sales and others having low sales [2] - Hong Kong will implement a stablecoin regulatory system on August 1, aiming to promote the digitalization of payment infrastructure and asset markets [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to fluctuate while silver shows relative strength. The US retail sales monthly rate increased by 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. There were rumors that Trump considered firing Powell, which he later denied, but the Trump administration tried to influence market expectations through potential new Fed chair candidates. The US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year in June, the largest increase this year, cooling short - term rate - cut expectations. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for major trading countries, but there is a risk of the final tariff threat being partially realized. With good economic data recently, the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded. Although the impact of the tariff policy shown by US data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is boosted by industrial products and shows relative strength. Recently, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Precious Metals Futures**: For gold futures, the current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.60 and 779.14 respectively, with price increases of 0.64 and 0.76, and price increase rates of 0.08% and 0.10%. For silver futures, the current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9246.00 and 9292.00 respectively, with price increases of 106.00 and price increase rates of 1.16% and 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract are also provided [2]. - **Related Indices and Assets**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. Spot Market - **Precious Metals Spot**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London gold, and London silver are given, along with their price changes and price change rates. The price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.28 with a decline rate of - 0.17%, London gold decreased by 1.24 with a decline rate of - 0.16%, and London silver increased by 0.28 with an increase rate of 0.75% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai gold/London gold, and Shanghai silver/London silver are provided, as well as their previous values [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, etc. are given. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms, the silver inventory increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 493,426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Derivatives - The current positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators' net positions in gold and silver are provided. The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF positions both increased by 1.00 ton to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position in gold decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macroeconomic News - The US Treasury Secretary Bentsen privately advised Trump not to fire Fed Chairman Powell, warning of economic, political, and legal consequences. Trump said he didn't need anyone to explain the pros and cons. Ukraine has invited Russia to hold a new round of negotiations this week, with the negotiation date to be determined, and Istanbul will be the location for the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, which may alleviate some concerns about the decline in consumer spending. The confidence of Americans in the economy and their financial situation has recently improved [1]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new real - estate development model and promoting urban renewal [1]. - In the short term, the steel price is expected to continue its oscillatory and slightly upward trend due to factors such as cost increases and policy expectations [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares are considered to have high investment value, with different indices having different characteristics and potential returns [3]. - The freight rate of European container shipping lines is in a state of oscillation, and the subsequent upward space may depend on the August freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Main News - **International News**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" for significant legislative reforms in cryptocurrency regulation, which will be submitted to President Trump for signing [6]. - **Domestic News**: Central state - owned enterprises' economic operations were generally stable from January to June, with a value - added of 5.2 trillion yuan. They are expected to shift to innovation - driven growth [7]. - **Industry News**: From 2020 to 2024, the industrialization rate of enterprise invention patents increased from 44.9% to 53.3% [8]. b. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the European STOXX 50 rose 0.96% [9]. c. Morning Comment on Key Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices and the previous trading - day's stock index rose. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - to - long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's monetary policy supports bond prices, but market risk preferences may increase bond price volatility [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.04% at night. US oil demand and inventory data showed certain trends, and OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.13%. The start - up load of domestic methanol plants decreased, inventory increased, and it was expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a weak consolidation state. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the price is affected by cost and market sentiment [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. Both are in the inventory digestion stage, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory digestion process [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to oscillate. Good economic data in the US cooled the expectation of early interest - rate cuts, and the long - term driving force of gold still exists [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely [20][21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be adjusted, demand is growing, and inventory has increased. The price may oscillate [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, and the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly upward [23]. - **Steel**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant. The short - term steel price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly upward [2][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal has recovered, and the market is in a positive feedback state. The focus is on policy expectations [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal was oscillatory and slightly upward at night. Trade agreements and export sales boosted the market, and the domestic supply is abundant [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil is strong, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillatory [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **European Container Shipping Lines**: The EC index was oscillatory. The 10 - contract fell 4.28%. The market is still speculating on the peak - season freight rate space, and attention should be paid to the August freight rates [4][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The US - Indonesia trade agreement reduced the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, with Indonesia planning to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products. There were also sales of US soybeans to unknown destinations, and the US soybean biodiesel policy supported prices. However, the domestic supply - side pressure limited the upside, and the domestic continuous meal was expected to maintain a strong and volatile short - term trend [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The MPOB report was neutral - bearish, but high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports changed significantly, with a 60% month - on - month increase in palm oil imports in June. With strong demand, palm oil prices were expected to be supported, and the overall oil market was expected to remain in a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties had different changes. For example, the closing price of soybean oil futures was 8072, up 30 with a 0.37% increase; palm oil was 8796, up 74 with a 0.85% increase; and rapeseed oil was 9440, down 30 with a - 3.15% decrease. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [2]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4158 ringgit/ton, up 49 with a 1.19% increase; CBOT soybeans were 1027 cents/bushel, up 8 with a 0.74% increase; CBOT US soybean oil was 56 cents/pound, up 1 with a 2.71% increase; and CBOT US soybean meal was 284 dollars/ton, up 1 with a 0.21% increase [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices also had different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 8230, with a 0.00% change; Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 8240, with a 0.24% increase; and the spot price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil was 8870, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Spot Spreads and Basis**: There were corresponding changes in spot spreads and basis. For example, the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remained at - 570, and the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 158 [2]. Industry Information - **Palm Oil Industry**: Indonesia increased the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40%. Malaysia's August reference price for crude palm oil was significantly higher than that in July, and the export tax increased from 8.5% to 9% [3]. - **Protein Meal Industry**: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement to reduce the soybean tariff, and Indonesia planned to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products, which boosted the market's confidence in US soybean exports [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver continue to fluctuate. The better - than - expected US economic data has cooled the expectation of the Fed's early interest rate cut, causing the US dollar to stabilize and putting pressure on gold and silver. The impact of the US tariff policy is currently smaller than feared, but the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of large - scale bills in the US further boosts the expectation of fiscal deficit. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance, and the risk of Trump's threats being realized needs to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: For gold futures, the closing prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.36 and 778.76 respectively, with increases of 0.40 and 0.38, and the increase rates are both 0.05%. For silver futures, the closing prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9178.00 and 9224.00 respectively, with increases of 38.00, and the increase rates are 0.42% and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 47780 and 43343 respectively, and the trading volumes of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market and Related Ratios**: The price of London gold has decreased by 1.28, with a decrease rate of - 0.17%. The price of London silver has decreased by 1.24, with a decrease rate of - 0.16%. The ratio of gold to silver (spot) is 84.50, and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.18 [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. The inventory of COMEX gold has increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and the inventory of COMEX silver has decreased by 493426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Macro News - **US Legislative Actions**: The US House of Representatives has passed the "Genius Act" to reform the regulation of cryptocurrencies, which will be submitted to President Trump for signature. It has also passed the "Clarity Act" to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, which will be submitted to the Senate for review [3]. - **Japan - US Trade**: In June, Japan's auto exports to the US decreased by 26.7% year - on - year, and its total exports to the US decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.71 trillion yen, with a widening decline [3]. - **US Employment and Retail Sales**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.1%, mainly driven by auto sales [3][4]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The US retail sales growth rate far exceeded expectations. The expectation of the Fed's early interest rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized, putting pressure on gold and silver. The long - term drivers of gold still exist, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is relatively strong due to industrial support [5]. - **Risk Factors**: The risk of Trump's tariff threats being realized needs to be vigilant, and the subsequent impact of the US tariff policy may gradually increase [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and mixed factors of stable downstream demand in power and positive growth in auto production and sales, while slowdown in home appliance output growth and weak real estate [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, market expects improved concentrate supply and possible recovery in smelting supply, with mixed downstream demand factors similar to copper [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry growing, auto production and sales positive, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,840 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,678 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 58.71 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,000 tons, and the daily change was 10,525 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,738 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,350 tons, and the daily change was 2,750 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.28 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 423,525 tons, and the daily change was 6,550 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,370 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 197.77 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 207,288 tons, and the daily change was 708 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 205 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.85 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 269,225 tons, and the daily change was - 1,850 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,070 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 33.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,035 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2]