Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market shows intensified multi - empty gaming. SC crude oil may continue to be weaker than the external market in the short term, and international oil prices (WTI/Brent) are expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. If geopolitical conflicts do not escalate, oil prices may decline further [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 9, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped from 490.5 yuan/barrel to 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.57%. WTI and Brent prices remained flat. The SC - Brent spread narrowed from 2.53 dollars/barrel to 1.52 dollars/barrel (a 39.92% decline), and the SC - WTI spread fell from 6.31 dollars/barrel to 5.3 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased from 11.5 yuan/barrel to 4.0 yuan/barrel (a 65.22% decline), indicating increased short - term spot - end pressure [2] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: Supply - side: Geopolitical disturbances persist, but supply increase expectations are strengthened. Malaysia plans to increase production, Norway will continue exploration, and Iraq sets different OSPs. Demand - side: Short - term demand is suppressed by the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and potential EU sanctions. Inventory - side: US commercial crude oil inventory accumulates counter - seasonally, and Mexican low - price export expectations reflect long - term supply - demand looseness. Domestic fuel oil warehouse receipts show differentiation [3] - **Price Trend Judgment**: The crude oil market has intensified multi - empty gaming. Support factors include geopolitical risks and potential EU sanctions, while suppression factors include non - OPEC production increase plans, US inventory accumulation, etc. SC crude oil may be weaker in the short term, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent change. Spot prices of various crude oils also have different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI change. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, etc., also show fluctuations. US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic reserve inventory increase, while the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decline slightly [6] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures, spot, and paper - cargo prices of fuel oil change. Spreads such as Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads also change. Inventory data of US distillates are provided [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: Geopolitical conflicts add uncertainty to crude oil supply. Malaysia plans to increase production, Norway will continue exploration, and Iraq sets different OSPs. Mexico receives funds and has production and price expectations [8][9] - **Demand**: Turkey signs a natural gas purchase agreement, and an Italian company's joint - venture may supply gas to Asian countries [10] - **Inventory**: US API inventory data and domestic fuel oil warehouse receipt changes are reported [11] - **Market Information**: Spot gold and WTI crude oil open flat. Crude - oil - related futures prices fluctuate. There are legislative proposals in the US, potential EU sanctions on Russia, and no adjustment in domestic refined oil prices. Mexican expected export prices are given [12][13] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Various data charts are provided, including WTI and Brent price and spread charts, US crude oil production charts, refinery operating rate charts, inventory charts, and fuel - oil - related price and spread charts [15][17][19][21][22][24][28][30][34][35][37][41][42][44][48][49][51][54][58][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, but the upward pressure is becoming more apparent. Supply - side copper ore is abundant, but policy disturbances in recycled copper add cost support. Demand - side weakness in household appliances and photovoltaic demand suppresses restocking momentum. Macroeconomic factors, such as the U.S. non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, create a mixed impact on risk assets. Future price trends depend on the spot purchasing and restocking strength of domestic electrolytic copper and the outcome of the September interest rate meeting [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract was 79,650 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 370 yuan from September 5. The premium of premium copper decreased from 285 yuan/ton on September 2 to 190 yuan/ton on September 8, and that of flat - water copper dropped from 75 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The LME spot discount continued to widen, with the 0 - 3 month discount expanding from 67.16 dollars/ton on September 2 to 68.04 dollars/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 8, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 155,825 tons, and the destocking speed slowed in the past two weeks. LME inventory on September 8 was 18,926 tons, a slight decrease of 1 ton during the week, remaining in a low - level oscillation. COMEX inventory increased by 434 short tons to 305,779 short tons, and the rising overseas hidden inventory pressured copper prices [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate supply remained loose. In August, China's copper ore imports increased by 7.2% year - on - year to 2.759 million physical tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August increased by 7.9% year - on - year. However, the import volume of refined copper decreased by 11.46% month - on - month to 425,000 tons. The adjustment of recycled copper policy led to an increase in the processing cost of brass strips, and the processing fee was raised to 1,500 yuan/ton [3] - **Demand Side**: The weak demand continued. In August, the operating rate of copper strips only increased by 0.25 percentage points month - on - month to 65.87%, 1.05 percentage points lower than market expectations. Weak orders in household appliances, photovoltaics and high copper prices suppressed procurement. The SMM survey showed that the operating rate of copper strips in September is expected to only slightly rise to 65.94% [4] - **Inventory Side**: The pressure of domestic visible inventory emerged. On September 8, the SMM copper inventory in major domestic regions increased by 0.63 million tons to 14.69 million tons due to concentrated arrival of imported goods. Although SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, the decline rate narrowed to 1.35%, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the next two weeks. LME inventory remained at a historical low, but marginal destocking stagnated, and the pressure of hidden inventory in overseas markets shifted to visible inventory [5] c. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, but the upward pressure is increasing. Supply - side cost support and demand - side weakness, along with mixed macro - factors, affect copper prices. Attention should be paid to domestic spot restocking and the September interest rate meeting results [6][7] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On September 8, the price of SMM 1 copper was 80,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 5. The premium of premium copper decreased by 70 yuan to 190 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper dropped by 10 yuan to 60 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened by 13 dollars/ton to - 81 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan from September 5, while the LME price was 9,907 dollars/ton, an increase of 42 dollars from September 5. LME inventory decreased by 1 ton to 18,926 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 155,825 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 434 short tons to 305,779 short tons [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - As of September 8, SMM copper inventory in major domestic regions increased by 0.63 million tons to 14.69 million tons due to concentrated arrival of imported goods, and inventory is expected to increase slightly. In August, China imported 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 11.458% month - on - month decrease. China imported 2.759 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates in August, a 7.2% year - on - year increase [9] - The adjustment of recycled copper policy led to an increase in the production cost of brass strip enterprises, and the processing fee in Jiangxi has risen to around 1,500 yuan/ton. In August, the operating rate of SMM copper strip enterprises was 65.87%, a 0.25 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but 1.05 percentage points lower than expected, affected by weak demand, high copper prices, and policy - related supply issues [10] 4. Price Trend Judgment - Considering supply increase, weak demand and macro - factors, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, ranging between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [37]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The repair space of PX and TA is constrained by cost drag and weak demand [1]. - The PTA and PX markets face challenges from supply - side pressures, weak demand, and potential inventory accumulation, while the polyester industry is expected to maintain a weak - balance pattern [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 8, 2025, the PX主力合约 closed at 6762.0 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 177.0 yuan/ton; the PTA主力合约 closed at 4690.0 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, with a basis of - 100.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The supply of PX and PTA is under pressure, with high - level operating rates and postponed maintenance plans. The falling crude oil prices weaken the cost support for PX and may suppress PTA production profits [2]. - The terminal textile demand has not shown a trend improvement. The polyester industry's开工 rate increase is limited, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain. PTA factory inventory pressure may gradually build up [3]. Polyester - On September 8, 2025, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6358.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6450.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The cost support from upstream raw materials is weakening, while the terminal restocking demand has marginally improved but remains below the peak - season threshold. There is a structural inventory contradiction, with short - fiber inventory much lower than that of long - filament products [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The主力合约 price increased by 0.71%, the成交 decreased by 11.65%, and the持仓 increased by 3.00%. The Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged, and the South Korean FOB increased by 0.37% [5]. - PTA: The主力合约 price increased by 0.39%, the成交 increased by 19.47%, and the持仓 increased by 0.41%. The Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA基差 decreased by 21.95% [5]. - Short - fiber: The主力合约 price increased by 0.38%, the成交 decreased by 17.57%, and the持仓 increased by 1.74%. The spot price in the East China market increased by 0.23% [4][5]. - Other products: The prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, and polyester chips remained unchanged, while the prices of some others like polyester bottle - chips increased slightly [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 8, Trump announced the final candidates for the Fed Chair, and the US Senate Republicans planned to modify rules to speed up the confirmation of Fed governors. Trump exempted metals like gold, tungsten, and uranium from global tariffs, and the PBOC continued to increase its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month [7]. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On September 8, the total trading volume at the Light Textile City was 676.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19.52% [8]. 4. Appendix: Inference Process - PX prices may be under pressure due to falling crude oil costs and sufficient supply. PTA may face supply - side pressure, and although demand has rebounded in the short term, inventory pressure may limit price increases [35][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the futures price of lithium carbonate may shift to a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The supply side has structural support due to lithium mine shutdown events and process substitution, but the peak - season expectations on the demand side have not been fully realized, and the decline in spot prices restricts the basis repair space. The market may switch to a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, and attention should be paid to the material declaration progress of Jiangxi lithium mines [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose slightly from 74,260 yuan/ton on September 5th to 74,800 yuan/ton on September 8th, with a gain of 0.73%. The basis weakened further from 440 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton. The trading volume shrank by 2.45% to 782,387 lots, and the market activity decreased. The position of the main contract increased slightly by 135 lots to 364,137 lots, and both long and short sides showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 66.41%, but the supply structure was significantly differentiated. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced by spodumene process increased to over 60%, while that of lepidolite process decreased to 15%. The shutdown event of lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi continued to ferment, which might disrupt regional supply in the future, but it was not reflected in the capacity utilization rate data yet [2] - **Demand side**: The new energy vehicle industry chain entered the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 9% month - on - month, and the wholesale volume increased by 23% year - on - year. However, the cathode material segment showed differentiation. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate continued to decline to 33,895 yuan/ton, while the price of ternary materials increased slightly. The acceptance of high - price raw materials by downstream was still limited. The price of the cell segment was mainly stable, with the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells rising significantly by 5.04% due to raw material cost, but other types of cells had small fluctuations [2] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued the downward trend, decreasing by 1,044 tons week - on - week to 140,092 tons, falling for four consecutive weeks, indicating a slight alleviation of the supply - demand contradiction [2] c. Market Summary - The lithium carbonate futures price may turn to a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. The market may switch to a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, and attention should be paid to the material declaration progress of Jiangxi lithium mines [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose from 74,260 yuan/ton on September 5th to 74,800 yuan/ton on September 8th, with a gain of 0.73%. The basis decreased from 440 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 168.18%. The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.04%, and the trading volume decreased by 2.45%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.27%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.10%, while the price of ternary materials increased slightly. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 5.04%, and other types of cells had small fluctuations [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On September 8th, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 160 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The market presented a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand in September, with the demand growth rate being faster, and it was expected to experience a stage of supply shortage [6] b. Downstream Consumption - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale volume was 1.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9% [7] c. Industry News - The spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to be strong. Affected by the deferral policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China would still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price had an upward momentum. Since August 10th, the shutdown of Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jiaxiawo mining area has affected the entire industrial chain [8][9] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contracts and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources from iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [11][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices may maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with SC performing stronger than foreign markets. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the actual implementation rate of the OPEC+ compensation plan and whether India's import bottlenecks can be alleviated. If geopolitical risks intensify, oil prices may break through the current oscillation range [5] - International oil prices (WTI and Brent) may remain stable due to the offset between OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical factors, while the rising price and expanding spread of SC crude oil may be affected by domestic policies, exchange rates, or strong Asian market demand [65] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 8, the SC crude oil main contract was at 490.5 yuan/barrel, up 1.76% from the previous five days, showing a "V - shaped" oscillation within the week. The SC - Brent spread widened from 1.86 dollars/barrel to 3.1 dollars/barrel, a 66.67% increase. The WTI - Brent spread remained unchanged at 3.7 dollars/barrel [2] - Fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased significantly (by 15,000 tons), suggesting increased refinery start - up demand. SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at 5.721 million barrels, indicating stable delivery storage capacity but tight near - term supply [3] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: OPEC+ compensation production cuts are ongoing, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia needing to make up a total capacity gap of 4.779 million barrels per day by 2026. Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in October. The EU may impose new sanctions on Russia, and there are port restrictions in Spain [4] - **Demand**: India's short - term demand growth is limited by logistics bottlenecks. China's gasoline and diesel demand is in a plateau, but the demand for naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel supports refinery start - up. India's refinery capacity expansion plan will drive long - term demand, but high current inventories suppress short - term purchases [4] - **Inventory**: US and OECD commercial crude oil inventories have not been updated. The decline in fuel oil warehouse receipts may reflect refinery restocking. China's strategic petroleum reserve filling rate remains high, indirectly suppressing commercial inventory fluctuations [4] c. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with SC performing stronger than foreign markets. The SC - Brent premium may continue, while WTI is restricted by abundant North American supply. In the medium term, the actual implementation rate of the OPEC+ compensation plan and the alleviation of India's import bottlenecks need attention [5] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.76% to 490.5 yuan/barrel, WTI fell 0.26% to 61.81 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.87% to 66.24 dollars/barrel [7] - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, Brent rose 2.00%, Oman rose 0.12%, etc [7] - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all increased, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread soared 270.97% [7] - Other assets: The US dollar index fell 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.21%, etc [7] - Inventory: US commercial crude oil, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased to varying degrees [7] - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly start - up rate decreased 0.32%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased 0.07% [7] b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.29% to 2,767 yuan/ton, LU rose 0.18% to 3,398 yuan/ton, etc [8] - Spot prices: IF0380 in Singapore rose 1.79%, IF0380 in Rotterdam fell 5.03%, etc [8] - Paper prices: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) fell 0.14%, high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) rose 0.01% [8] - Spreads: Singapore's high - low sulfur spread was not updated, China's high - low sulfur spread fell 0.32%, etc [8] - Platts prices: Platts (380CST) fell 3.06%, Platts (180CST) fell 4.20% [8] - Inventory: Data on US distillates were not fully updated [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - OPEC+ requires some countries to compensate for over - production, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia having compensation plans. The compensation period is extended to 2026 [9][10] - India continues to purchase Russian crude oil, but logistics bottlenecks hinder procurement. India plans to increase refinery capacity by 25% in the next year [10] - Spain bans some fuel oil tankers supplying Israel from entering its ports [10] - OPEC+ will increase production from October, but at a slower pace [11] b. Demand - India will be the main driver of global oil demand growth in the next 10 years and is diversifying its crude oil supply [12] - China's gasoline and diesel demand has entered a stable period, and the growth in fuel demand comes from naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel [12] c. Inventory - India's high inventories lead to a slight decline in purchases [13] - On September 8, SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 15,000 tons [13] - China's strategic petroleum reserve filling rate is expected to remain at a similar level in 2026 as in 2025 [13] d. Market Information - Saudi Arabia raises the official selling prices of Arab Light crude oil to the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia in October [14] - The EU is considering new sanctions against Russia to target its banking and oil trade [14] - The refined oil market may be very tight in 2026, with profit margins potentially increasing significantly [14] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, etc [15][17][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene market remains under pressure, but the cost side shows some resilience due to a slight rebound in oil prices. In the short term, it maintains a weak oscillating pattern, and the medium - to - long - term trend depends on whether the oil price can continue to rebound and the realization of import increments [2] - The styrene market rebounds briefly, with the short - term focus returning to the 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton range. However, in the medium term, the pressure remains. It mainly oscillates within a range, and the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure brought by inventory realization [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On September 8, the styrene main contract closed down 0.42% at 7077 yuan/ton, with a basis of 38 (+20 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.60% at 6013 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On September 8, Brent crude oil closed at $61.9 per barrel (-$1.6 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $65.5 per barrel (-$1.5 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5820 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a 9.8% increase; pure benzene port inventory was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), an 8.0% increase [2] - **Supply**: Styrene will have device maintenance in September, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly output of styrene is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2] - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S vary. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 52.5% (-5.8%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-1.8%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 61.0% (+1.1%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Although it gets some cost support after a technical rebound, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [2] - **Styrene**: The short - term price rebounds, but the medium - term pressure remains, and the supply - demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as upstream oil and naphtha, have different degrees of decline or increase from September 5 to September 8 [5] - **Output and Inventory**: From August 29 to September 5, the output of styrene and pure benzene in China increased slightly, and the inventory of styrene and pure benzene also increased [6] - **Operating Rate**: From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased, and the operating rates of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed differently [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposes high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity forms a pattern with East China as the core and coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][11][21]

需求端：聚酯工厂及江浙织机负荷分别稳定于89.42%和63.43%，终端需求 缺乏增量信号，聚酯环节维持刚性采购模式，未能对乙二醇形成向上拉 动。 乙二醇港口累库压制盘面，关注国内装置检修情况 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇期货主力合约价格微幅下跌0.14%至4349元/吨， 呈现震荡偏弱格局，而华东现货价格小幅上涨5元至4500元/吨，基差从145 元/吨扩大至151元/吨，反映现货市场略强于期货。近月价差方面，1-5价 差反弹2元至-30元/吨，远月价差则走弱，5-9价差下滑3元至-10元/吨，暗 示市场对中期供应压力仍存担忧。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量增加4646手至29.7万手，但成交量大幅收缩 22.99%至12.5万手，显示在价格波动收窄后市场活跃度下降，资金观望情 绪升温。 供给端：乙二醇总体开工率提升0.5个百分点至71.38%，主要来自煤制装置 负荷回升（+1.3%至66.74%），油制开工率持 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The supply - demand game between PX and PTA continues, and attention should be paid to the support of peak - season expectations [1] - The terminal demand has significantly recovered, and with the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - season expectations, the operating rates of downstream weaving and polyester have room for further increase, which will rigidly support the demand for PTA and then be transmitted to the PX segment [2] - The raw material cost has collapsed, and the inventory of polyester products is differentiated. The industrial chain is still under short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the elastic opportunities brought by the low inventory of POY and the sustainability of traditional peak - season demand [4] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On September 5th, the PX main contract closed at 6,714.0 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 7.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,672.0 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 52.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 5th, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.88 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on September 5th, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 840.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 630.8 million meters [2] - On the supply side, the recent operating rate of PX plants is at a high level, and the expectation of new domestic PX production capacity is increasing, so the supply pressure is gradually accumulating, which may suppress the price. The PTA plant load has increased and the restarted production capacity has increased, but some plants may reduce their loads due to low processing fees. The short - term supply pressure may weaken marginally, but it will still be relatively loose in the medium term [2] - On the demand side, the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City has risen to 840 million meters (the 15 - day average has increased by 33% compared with the previous value), the terminal demand has significantly recovered. With the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - season expectations, the operating rates of downstream weaving and polyester have room for further increase, which will rigidly support the demand for PTA and then be transmitted to the PX segment [2] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory has slightly accumulated compared with the previous period, but the current inventory level is still within the controllable range, and the rigid pick - up of polyester is stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected that the inventory pressure will have limited impact on the price. However, the subsequent inventory accumulation risk under high supply elasticity needs to be vigilant [3] Polyester - On September 5th, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,334.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,435.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 101.0 yuan/ton [4] - On the supply side, the futures prices of PX and PTA have continuously declined. PX has weakened from 6,994 yuan/ton on August 26th to 6,714 yuan/ton on September 5th, and PTA has also dropped from 4,870 yuan/ton to 4,672 yuan/ton, reflecting the supply - loosening pressure on the raw material side. On the demand side, the MA15 of the trading volume of the Light Textile City has steadily climbed from 514.93 million meters on August 26th to 630.8 million meters on September 5th, and the signal of marginal improvement in demand is clear [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory days of polyester DTY and FDY are 29.7/26.4 days respectively, significantly higher than the five - year average of 28.4/22.2 days. The inventory of polyester short - fiber is 6.97 days, also exceeding the average of 4.96 days, indicating the inventory accumulation pressure of mid - and downstream products. However, the inventory of polyester POY is 17.4 days, lower than the average of 20.4 days, showing a prominent structural contradiction. Overall, the collapse of raw material costs and the differentiated inventory of polyester products mean that the industrial chain is still under short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the elastic opportunities brought by the low inventory of POY and the sustainability of traditional peak - season demand [4] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring PX - On September 5th, 2025, the main - contract price of PX futures was 6,714 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous day; the main - contract trading volume was 184,301 lots, down 30.92%; the main - contract position was 149,368 lots, down 1.44%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 828 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 806 US dollars/ton, up 0.25%. The PX basis was - 129 yuan/ton, down 577.78% [5] PTA - On September 5th, 2025, the main - contract price of PTA futures was 4,672 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day; the main - contract trading volume was 615,241 lots, down 36.83%; the main - contract position was 1,036,165 lots, up 4.02%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The PTA basis was - 82 yuan/ton, down 127.78%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 5 - 9 spread was 176 yuan/ton, up 51.72%; the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, down 75.00%. The PTA import profit was - 812.57 yuan/ton, down 3.95% [5] Short - fiber - On September 5th, 2025, the main - contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,334 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day; the main - contract trading volume was 192,663 lots, down 6.10%; the main - contract position was 185,144 lots, up 8.47%. The mainstream spot price in the East China market was 6,435 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The PF basis was 101 yuan/ton, down 15.83%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 29.17%; the 5 - 9 spread was 194 yuan/ton, down 11.01%; the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 yuan/ton, down 3.28% [5] Other products - On September 5th, 2025, the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.67 US dollars/barrel, down 1.81%; the price of the US crude oil main contract was 61.97 US dollars/barrel, down 2.16%; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of ethylene glycol was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 1.12%; the price of polyester chips was 5,745 yuan/ton, down 2.13%; the price of polyester bottle chips was 5,820 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the price of polyester POY was 6,860 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of polyester DTY was 8,040 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the price of polyester FDY was 7,135 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [5] Processing spreads - On September 5th, 2025, the processing spread of naphtha was 100.04 US dollars/ton, up 18.67%; that of PX was 235.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; that of PTA was 113.87 yuan/ton, down 21.27%; that of polyester chips was - 36.95 yuan/ton, down 146.68%; that of polyester bottle chips was - 411.95 yuan/ton, up 8.63%; that of polyester short - fiber was 28.05 yuan/ton, down 76.46%; that of polyester POY was 178.05 yuan/ton, down 14.87%; that of polyester DTY was 8.05 yuan/ton, down 12.02%; that of polyester FDY was - 46.95 yuan/ton, down 14.93% [6] Light Textile City trading volume - On September 5th, 2025, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 840 million meters, up 9.8% from the previous day; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 654 million meters; the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 188 million meters [6] Industrial chain load rates - On September 5th, 2025, the load rate of PTA factories was 75.86%, unchanged; that of polyester factories was 89.42%, unchanged; that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, unchanged [6] Inventory days - From August 28th to September 4th, 2025, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased from 6.86 days to 6.97 days, up 1.60%; that of polyester POY increased from 15.3 days to 17.4 days, up 13.73%; that of polyester FDY increased from 24 days to 26.4 days, up 10.00%; that of polyester DTY increased from 28.6 days to 29.7 days, up 3.85% [6] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic dynamics - On September 5th, 2025, nominee Milan did not recommend handing over the control of the Federal Reserve to the president; the US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Cook over a mortgage incident; the World Gold Council reported that gold ETFs attracted 5.5 billion US dollars in August, and although there was an outflow in Asia, it could not stop the buying in Europe and the US [7] - On September 4th, 2025, Bostic was worried about inflation and still thought it was appropriate to cut interest rates once this year; the Federal Reserve would hold a payment innovation conference on October 21st to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization; nominee Milan would maintain the independence of the FOMC if the nomination was confirmed; the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that economic activity was basically flat, and enterprises and households felt the impact of tariffs; Waller thought the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates at the next meeting and there might be multiple interest - rate cuts in the future, but the specific rhythm would depend on the data; the World Gold Council sought to launch digital gold to create a new model for precious - metal trading, settlement, and collateral; the Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level of gold deferred - delivery contracts [7] Supply - demand dynamics - demand - On September 5th, 2025, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 840.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 654.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 188.0 million meters [9] Group 5: Appendix - Big Model Reasoning Process - On the supply side, PX may become tight due to plant overhauls, and PTA supply is stable but there is a possibility of increased production [35][36] - On the demand side, the high operating rate of polyester and the increased demand in the Light Textile City are beneficial to PTA [35][36] - On the inventory side, PTA may face pressure, but the increasing demand may relieve the inventory [35][36]

李英杰 从业编号：F3040852 投资咨询：Z0010294 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 一、周报小结 碳酸锂减产去库预期基本兑现，9月或延续矿端预期定价 - 碳酸锂产业链周度数据报告 2025年09月08日 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 基本面简述： 1、锂矿：预期反复，甚至传出枧下窝复产可能。反内卷与市场情绪已经有所消退，但是矿端仍旧是市 场中重点关注的对象，过去一周矿端的预期波动仍旧较大，甚至传出枧下窝会在9月20日复产的消息，言之 凿凿却未见下文，后市随着9月30日这一关键时间节点临近，不排除预期波动放大的可能。 2、锂盐：复产预期略显疲惫，"反内卷"题材卷土重来。碳酸锂LC2511合约触碰9万点后，期价便一 路下滑，枧下窝停产这一边际变化基本消化后，市场中便不断传来盐厂续证、复产等利空消息，重新触碰7 万元关口后，江西盐厂复产这一题材便显露疲态，上周后半段，"反内卷"题材卷土重来，期价也终于开始 出现较强力度的反弹。 3、正极材料及锂电池：季节性旺季 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Expected to Rise but Didn't, Short - term Electrolytic Copper Pricing May Return to Fundamentals - Copper Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: September 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Copper price's interest - rate - cut trading may be over. Without new marginal changes, it may return to fundamentals, and the current price may be overvalued compared to the fundamentals of electrolytic copper. The support level can still underpin the copper price before the "recession narrative" begins. Attention should be paid to downstream buyers' acceptance of the current price and the Fed's stance in the September meeting [6] Weekly Summary - **Macroeconomics**: The non - farm payrolls data was in line with expectations. The dollar index remained strong after the data release due to pre - trading and concerns about European debt. Copper prices rose and then fell [4] - **Copper Concentrate**: Low growth at the mine end continued to suppress TC prices. As of September 8, the TC quote remained at - 41 dollars, unchanged from a week ago [4] - **Electrolytic Copper**: After the interest - rate - cut expectation was fulfilled, the price may return to fundamentals in the short term. The price failed to break through the long - term resistance level of 80,000 yuan. Without new marginal changes, the high price may suppress purchasing power, but the downside is limited before the recession narrative starts [4] - **Downstream Demand**: Inventory did not accumulate during the off - season. The upcoming peak season replenishment may strongly support the copper price [5] Group 3: Electrolytic Copper Market Price 1.1 Upstream Market Price - TC prices remained at a low level. The short - term rise in copper prices pushed up long - term demand expectations and further suppressed TC prices [4] 1.2 Spot and Futures Market Price - The expectation of interest - rate cuts pushed up the premium of warehouse receipts [15] 1.3 Overseas Position Data - The speculative atmosphere overseas increased significantly [21] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory 2.1 Upstream Supply - The growth rate of the supply side was limited [30] 2.2 Production and Inventory - The total production and operating rate of electrolytic copper showed certain trends. The cost and profit of production, as well as the weekly inventory, were also presented in the data [37][39][41] Group 5: Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption 3.1 Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield - The dollar index was unexpectedly strong after the non - farm payrolls data [44] 3.2 US Economic Data - The non - farm payrolls data in August was unexpectedly low, which further boosted the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Multiple economic indicators such as employment, market confidence, retail sales, and inventory were presented [53][54][55] 3.3 Chinese Economic Data - In July, the new loans turned negative. The PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Multiple economic indicators such as M1, M2, social financing, and consumer spending were presented [61][67] 3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data - The power grid and new energy sectors provided support. Data on monthly demand, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate were presented [74]