Tong Hui Qi Huo

Search documents
原油、燃料油日报:原油库存骤降叠加区域价差走阔,短线维持高位博弈-20250619
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 08:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil market is in a game period between rapid inventory depletion and weakening marginal demand. Short - term supply is tight, but refinery demand is weakening. The oil price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and SC crude oil may be stronger than the external market, but risks such as inventory inflection points and the return of geopolitical risk premiums should be vigilant [4]. - The supply - demand pattern shows regional differentiation characteristics. Supply - side disturbance factors are intensifying, and demand shows uneven performance. Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential intervention of the United States may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 18, the price of SC crude oil futures rose 5.3% to 552.7 yuan/barrel, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 9.2%. WTI and Brent oil prices remained horizontally consolidated. The cross - market spread changed significantly, and the premium of the Chinese market expanded rapidly, which may be related to shipping premiums and RMB exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 1.147 billion barrels in a single week, and Cushing inventories decreased by 995,000 barrels, the largest single - week destocking since April. However, refinery processing demand showed signs of weakness, with a sharp reduction in crude oil imports and a decline in equipment utilization rates, reflecting weak terminal consumption [2]. - The supply - demand pattern is regionally differentiated. On the supply side, Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea remained unchanged. On the demand side, Japan's crude oil imports increased year - on - year in May, but the demand for refined oil products in the United States was weak [3]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are the key support, but the potential escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may trigger U.S. intervention, which may suppress the upward space of oil prices [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC crude oil rose 5.3%, WTI fell 0.85%, and Brent fell 1.44%. Spot prices of various types of crude oil showed different degrees of change, and the spreads between different types of crude oil also changed significantly [6]. - Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.65%, Cushing inventories decreased by 4.2%, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 0.06%. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 1.17%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 2.11% [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 2.65%, LU rose 3.02%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose 0.58%. Spot prices of various types of fuel oil generally increased, and the spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil also increased [7]. - Inventory: The inventory data of some regions and types of fuel oil showed different trends, and the inventories of some types of fuel oil in the United States were not updated [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - The EIA's put - into - production crude oil volume and crude oil imports in the United States from June 6 - 13 decreased compared with the previous period. Qatar raised the premium of Al - Shaheen crude oil, and the export volume of CPC Blend oil in the Black Sea in July remained unchanged. Iran may maintain export resilience [8][9]. Demand - The utilization rate of U.S. refinery equipment from June 6 - 13 was lower than expected, and the production of refined oil and gasoline decreased compared with the previous period, indicating weak demand in North America [9]. Inventory - U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and total crude oil inventories decreased, while refined oil and gasoline inventories increased less than expected [10]. Market Information - Crude - related futures contracts rose, and the market is trading on Middle East geopolitical situations. If the United States is involved in the Israel - Iran conflict, the dollar may fall, and oil prices may also decline [11]. - The price of hot - rolled coil steel stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the short - term price may fall after a small increase [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [13][15][17]
苯乙烯日报-20250612
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 11:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in crude oil prices has driven the upward movement of styrene, but pure benzene remains relatively weak. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene has slightly eased, and the market shows a structure of stronger near - term contracts and weaker far - term contracts. In the long - term, styrene prices may be dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene [1][4]. - For pure benzene, with the restart of previously shut - down units, supply will further increase in June, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state. Attention should be paid to whether the blending oil demand will bring marginal changes to the supply - demand pattern [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On June 11, the main styrene contract closed up 0.37% at 7349 yuan/ton, with a basis of 411 yuan/ton (+67 yuan/ton). The closing price of the main Brent crude oil contract was 65.0 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 66.9 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6040 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.1 million tons (+2.0 million tons), a 12.2% month - on - month increase; Jiangsu port inventory was 8.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 19.4% month - on - month increase, indicating that styrene has started to accumulate inventory [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance units are expected to gradually resume operation in mid - to - late June, with an expected increase in supply. Currently, the weekly styrene output has increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 33.1 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 72.3% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products vary. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 46.4% (-12.3%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 64.0% (+1.70%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 59.2% (-2.6%) [2][3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by the restart of previously shut - down units, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene have continued to rise, driving an increase in supply - side output. Overall, the downstream demand for pure benzene is basically the same as last week, and the supply - demand gap has significantly narrowed within the week. In the future, as some maintenance units gradually resume operation, supply will further increase, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state in June [3]. - **Styrene**: On the supply side, the units are gradually resuming operation, and the current peak of styrene maintenance is basically over, with a steady increase in subsequent supply. On the demand side, the comprehensive demand for 3S products has significantly declined. As 3S enters the seasonal demand off - season, the demand support for styrene depends on the commissioning of several new PS and ABS units in the third quarter. The inventory in East China ports has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The spot market and the basis in late June continue to weaken under the expectation of increased supply, but there is still a certain price difference with late July [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices**: On June 11, the price of the styrene futures continuous contract increased by 0.04% to 7349 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7886 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 19.48% to 411 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 0.41% to 6040 yuan/ton, the price of pure benzene (South Korea FOB) increased by 0.28% to 724.5 dollars/ton, the price of pure benzene (US FOB) remained unchanged at 790.5 dollars/ton, and the price of pure benzene (China CFR) decreased by 0.13% to 742.5 dollars/ton [5]. - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: From May 30 to June 6, China's styrene output increased by 0.40% to 33.1 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 5.93% to 42.5 million tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 19.44% to 8.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory increased by 12.16% to 19.1 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 1.40% to 14.5 million tons [6]. - **Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 6, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 0.30% to 72.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 1.59% to 86.9%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 3.80% to 78.8%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased by 4.61% to 65.8%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 12.25% to 46.4%, the ABS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.70% to 64.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.60% to 59.2% [7]. III. Industry News - Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that China and the US have reached a consensus on the trade framework and will report to the leaders. - The Russian Ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon. - The US travel ban on citizens from 12 countries has come into effect [8]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM imported pure benzene costs vs. domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][14][15][18][19][21][24][25][26].
原油、燃料油日报:地缘溢价对冲需求疲态,油价冲击阶段性高位-20250612
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 08:58
地缘溢价对冲需求疲态,油价冲击阶段性高位 一、日度市场总结 国际原油期货价格呈现区域分化走势。6月11日SC原油结算价小幅回落 0.35%至478.1元/桶,日内呈现冲高回落态势;WTI与Brent价格则维持在 64.74和66.6美元/桶的横盘格局。值得关注的是跨区价差出现明显调整, SC-Brent价差由前一日的+0.16美元急转至-0.07美元,SC-WTI价差也收窄 0.23美元至1.79美元,显示出亚洲市场供应相对宽松的短期格局。但近远 月价差走强,SC连续-连三价差扩大至9.8元/桶的月内高点,反映现货端存 在支撑。 地缘政治风险溢价再度注入市场,成为当前主导供给预期的核心变量。中 东局势方面,美国撤离驻中东人员导致伊核协议谈判不确定性加剧,伊朗 原油重返市场的时间表再次延后,据市场测算潜在供应增量约130万桶/日 的风险敞口仍然存在。同时乌克兰对俄罗斯石油设置30美元价格上限的呼 吁虽缺乏操作路径,但侧面印证当前60-70美元区间的价格水平对俄罗斯财 政压力有限,OPEC+挺价意愿难见松动。库存数据指向分化特征,欧洲地区 通过持续削减俄油进口重构供应链,德国官方数据显示对俄贸易量锐减95% 背景 ...
乙二醇日报:乙二醇库存小幅累积抑制反弹,或延续震荡偏弱走势-20250610
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:20
Group 1 - The investment rating of the ethylene glycol industry is not mentioned in the report [2][3] - The core view of the report is that the ethylene glycol industry currently shows a pattern of stable supply and weakening demand on the margin The upward movement of the futures price is restricted by the selling pressure from high inventory and cost losses, as well as the downward drag from weakening demand The inventory accumulation caused by high arrival volumes also limits the rebound space If the inventory continues to rise or crude oil prices weaken, the risk of a weakening and volatile market will increase [2][3] Group 2 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.31%) from the previous value, continuing the previous pattern of being slightly stronger in a volatile market The spot price in East China decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan (0.46%) [2] - In terms of spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton (an increase of 88.89%), the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton (an increase of 83.33%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 85.71%), indicating that the forward contracts are strengthening [2] - In terms of profit, oil - based production remained in a loss state (currently -92.01 US dollars/ton), coal - based production profit remained stable at -218 yuan/ton (no change), and losses in the natural gas - based production routes (including ethylene - based and methanol - based) continued to deepen (ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton), showing that the pressure on raw material costs has not eased [2] - On the supply side, the overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained flat at 54.36%, with the oil - based operating rate at 56.44% and the coal - based operating rate at 50.5% unchanged, indicating a stable domestic production rhythm without new capacity disturbances [2] - On the demand side, the load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locked at 63.43% [3] - On the inventory side, the inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.67 tons to 59.8 tons (an increase of 3.69%), the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons (a decrease of 5.22%), but the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons (an increase of 19.13%). Combined with the narrowing of the basis and the decline in spot prices, it shows that the increase in overseas shipments has led to a slight accumulation of inventory, and the decrease in Zhangjiagang's inventory indicates accelerated local out - shipments, but the overall supply - demand situation is becoming more relaxed [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan from June 6, 2025, with a daily increase of 0.31% The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 24,295 lots to 208,567 lots, a decrease of 10.43%, and the open interest increased by 4,022 lots to 284,769 lots, an increase of 1.43% [5] - The spot price in the East China market of MEG decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan (0.46%) The MEG basis decreased from 170 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan (7.65%) [5] - The 1 - 5 spread of MEG increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton, an increase of 88.89%; the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.33%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.71% [5] - The oil - based production profit remained at a loss of -92.01 US dollars/ton, the coal - based production profit remained at -218 yuan/ton with no change, the ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and the methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton [2][5] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, textile loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained unchanged [5] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.7 tons to 59.8 tons, an increase of 3.69%; the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons, a decrease of 5.22%; the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons, an increase of 19.13% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides 6 charts, including the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and the total inventory of the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]
聚酯链日报:需求疲软主导聚酯市场情绪,原油价格上涨难提振-20250610
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:19
手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 需求疲软主导聚酯市场情绪,原油价格上涨难提振 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 2. 聚酯 06月06日,短纤主力合约收6394.0元/吨,较前一交易日收涨0.66%。华东 市场现货价为6500.0元/吨,较前一交易日收涨20.0元/吨,基差为106.0 元/吨。 轻纺城成交量连续下滑,MA15值从831.33万米(5月30日)降至808.93万米 (6月6日),下降约2.7%,表明下游纺织需求疲软。库存端:截至6月5 日,涤纶短纤库存8.4天、涤纶长丝FDY库存21.6天、DTY库存28.4天、POY 库存16.5天。短期产业链偏弱运行,价格承压或持续下行,需求端收缩主 导市场。 1/10 二、产业链价格监测 06月09日,PX 主力合约收0.0元/吨,较前一交易日收涨0.24%,基差为0.0 元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨,与前一交易日持平,基差为0.0元/ 吨。 成本端,06月09日,WTI收64.7 ...
OPEC实际供给增量不及预期,油价呈现偏强态势
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 10:57
OPEC实际供给增量不及预期,油价呈现偏强态势 一、日度市场总结 原油期货日度市场总结(2025年06月09日) 数据变化情况分析 今日原油市场数据显示,国内SC原油期货价格表现强 势,较前一交易日上涨8.2元/桶至474.3元/桶,涨幅1.76%,小幅走高,走 势呈温和上扬趋势(盘中从462.5元逐步攀升至474.3元)。相比之下,国 际基准原油价格维持稳定:WTI期货价格持平于64.77美元/桶,连续五日区 间震荡(波动区间63.34-64.77美元/桶);Brent期货价格同样无变化,报 66.65 美 元 / 桶 ( 区 间 65.61-66.65 美 元 ) 。 价 差 方 面 , SC-Brent 价 差 从-1.78美元/桶收窄至-0.63美元/桶,价差走强64.61%;SC-WTI价差从0.1 美元/桶扩大至1.25美元/桶,大幅走强1150%;而Brent-WTI价差持平于 1.88美元/桶,维持稳定。此外,SC连续-连3价差小幅上扬,从7.0元/桶升 至8.8元/桶,显示国内期货市场短期看涨情绪。 供需及库存分析(基于06月09日资讯) 供给端受OPEC+产量和政策主导, 资讯显示OPEC ...
苯乙烯日报:纯苯供增需减,苯乙烯跟随原油定价-20250610
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 09:17
库存:苯乙烯样本工厂库存 19.1 万吨(+2.0 万吨),环比上升 12.2%, 江苏港口库存 8.9 万吨(+1.4 万吨),环比上升 19.4%,苯乙烯开始累库。 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 星期二 纯苯供增需减,苯乙烯跟随原油定价 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 (1)基本面 价格:6 月 9 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 1.56%,报 7211 元/吨,基差 294 元 /吨(-63 元/吨); 成本:6 月 9 日布油主力合约收盘 64.6 美元/桶(+1.2 美元/桶),WTI 原油主力合约收盘 66.5 美元/桶(+1.2 美元/桶),华东纯苯现货报价 5915 元/吨(+75 元/吨)。 供应:苯乙烯检修装置将于 6 月中下旬逐渐回归,届时供应有增量预 期。目前,苯乙烯周产量环比回升 0.4%至 33.1 万吨(+0.1 万吨),工厂产能 利用率 72.3%(+0.3%)。 需求:下游 3S 开工率变化不一,其中 EPS 产能利用率 46.4%(- 12.3%),ABS 产能利用率 64.0%(+1.70%),PS 产能利用率 59.2%(-2 ...
通惠期货铜日报:铜高位震荡延续,供给支撑需求压制-20250609
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a situation of supply - demand imbalance. The supply side is supported by smelter shutdowns and copper concentrate shortages, while the demand side is significantly suppressed by the off - season. In the context of the game between long and short positions, price increases are restricted by weak demand, and price decreases are limited by cost support. Attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on the US dollar, US tariff policies, and the acceptance of current prices by domestic buyers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 6, 2025, the SHFE main contract closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, showing a slight upward trend. The LME 3 - month copper price was reported at 9,707.5 US dollars/ton, continuing the upward trend. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation, and the LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened to 93.15 US dollars/ton, indicating tight near - end supply [2]. - The LME open interest decreased by 1,146 lots to 283,000 lots, with a slight contraction in market trading activity. The SHFE copper inter - month spread BACK structure remained at around 100 yuan/ton, and the import loss widened to 1,600 yuan/ton, stimulating smelters to accelerate exports and increasing short - term liquidity pressure [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The shortage of copper concentrate has intensified, and domestic smelting capacity is being restored. The cathode copper output of Western Copper increased by 18% year - on - year to 67,400 tons, and the acceptance of the bonded mixed ore project at Tangshan Port may relieve long - term raw material pressure [3]. - The entire copper industry chain has entered the traditional off - season, with generally declining operating rates. The copper rod operating rate in June is expected to drop to 47.11%, and the enameled wire operating rate is expected to drop by 4.5 percentage points to 67.76%. The operating rates of wire and cable and copper strip also weakened. High copper prices have curbed downstream procurement, with demand mainly from rigid needs and long - term contracts. The demand for lithium - ion copper foil is relatively strong [3]. - LME inventory increased by 591 tons to 32,278 tons, COMEX inventory increased to 186,883 short tons, and overseas visible inventory accumulated marginally. SHFE inventory decreased by 5,600 tons to 132,400 tons, with continued but slowed destocking in China. The SMM national social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 149,000 tons compared with last week, showing initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper (premium copper) was 78,970 yuan/ton on June 6, 2025, up 0.65% from the previous day, and the premium decreased by 10% to 135 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 20% to 30 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 30 yuan/ton [6]. - The LME (0 - 3) basis was 70 US dollars/ton, down 25.02% from the previous day. The SHFE copper price was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, and the LME copper price was 9,671 US dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [6]. - LME inventory increased by 1.87% to 32,278 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 4.06% to 132,400 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.53% to 187,877 short tons [6]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][12].
聚酯链日报:缺乏有利因素推动,PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡-20250609
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:18
缺乏有利因素推动,PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月06日,PX 主力合约收6556.0元/吨,较前一交易日收涨0.24%,基差为 79.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨,较前一交易日收涨0.17%,基差 为228.0元/吨。 成本端,06月06日,布油主力合约收盘66.65美元/桶。WTI收64.77美元/ 桶。需求端,06月06日,轻纺城成交总量为754.0万米,15 日平均成交为 808.93万米。 目前PX开工率国内78%,亚洲69.4%,但青岛丽东100万吨PX装置计划6月负 荷提升至90%左右,浙石化歧化装置重启提负,辽阳石化短停的70万吨产能 5月26日重启,GS40万吨产能6月中重启等,PX供应将在6月有大量回归,随 后在7月陆续再度进入多套检修时间。PTA有新装置即将投产,供应压力逐 步回归,终端需求边际走弱,PTA价格可能继续承压。 2. 聚酯 二、 ...
聚酯开工继续下滑,需求走弱带动乙二醇盘面下行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 11:40
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue its low - level oscillation pattern. While cost support limits the downside price movement, high inventory and weak demand suppress price rebounds. Attention should be paid to the realization of coal - chemical production cuts and polyester restocking trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price and Trading Volume**: The main futures price of ethylene glycol has declined for three consecutive days to 4,240 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume shrank significantly by 34.6% to 233,000 lots, and positions decreased slightly by 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened to 4,385 yuan/ton, with the basis widening by 12 yuan to 150 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded by 60.9% to - 9 yuan/ton, but the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads were still under pressure [2]. - **Cost**: Oil - based production profit remained at a loss of 86.3 dollars/ton, coal - based production profit stayed at a deep loss of - 250 yuan/ton for five consecutive weeks, and methanol - based production profit deteriorated to a historical low of - 1,144 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 54.4%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 1.35 percentage points to 56.4% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load was stuck at 89.4%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.4%. East China main port inventory increased by 3.7% to 598,000 tons, reaching a four - week high, while Zhangjiagang inventory decreased slightly by 5.2% to 218,000 tons due to improved shipments [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.28% to 4,240 yuan/ton, and trading volume decreased by 34.58%. Positions decreased by 0.13%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.57% to 4,385 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8.7% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of ethylene glycol increased by 60.87% to - 9 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 50% to - 12 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 32.26% to 21 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: Oil - based production profit was at a loss of 86 dollars/ton, ethylene - based production profit was at a loss of 577 yuan/ton, methanol - based production profit was at a loss of 1,144 yuan/ton, and coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.83% to 54.4%, the oil - based operating rate increased by 1.35% to 56.4%, and the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged at 89.4% and 63.4% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: East China main port inventory increased by 3.69% to 598,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 5.22% to 218,000 tons, and arrivals increased by 19.13% to 137,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].