1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of the Fed's loose monetary policy, there is still support on the sentiment side. Copper prices may rise further, but the upward resistance has increased due to factors such as higher - than - expected long - term copper concentrate processing fees and weak year - end consumption [3]. - For aluminum, the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level, and with overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices. However, weak downstream consumption creates pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term [5]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. - For zinc, the shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. - For tin, although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - For nickel, although the excess pressure of nickel is still large, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position, and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and position changes [18]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21]. - For stainless steel, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost and supply disruptions, while demand is relatively unstable and delivery pressure creates upper - limit suppression. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB broke through 7. Affected by supply - side disturbance news, copper prices remained strong. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed up to 97,680 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with Monday, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.7 to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the transaction was light. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: With the support of the Fed's loose monetary policy sentiment, the copper mine supply remains in a tense pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply. However, the long - term benchmark of copper concentrate processing fees is slightly higher than expected, and year - end consumption is weak. The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to run in the range of 95,500 - 98,800 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase, but sentiment remained warm. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.25% to 22,275 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 653,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 24,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased by 4,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum bars rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was light. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream consumption remained weak at the end of the year [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum inventory has rebounded, overseas aluminum inventory has declined oscillatingly, and the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level. With overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices, while weak downstream consumption creates pressure. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to run in the range of 22,150 - 22,400 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 17,311 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 91,100 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons [6][7]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the processing fee of lead concentrate has remained flat, and the operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased. The inventory of waste batteries has declined marginally, the operating rate of recycled lead has declined marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained basically stable. The supply of domestic lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.70% to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 196,800 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,080 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 80 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 10 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 75 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons [9]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of domestic zinc ore will ease marginally. LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc month - spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to decline, the spot basis has increased, but the month - spread remains low. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 25, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 335,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of tin ingot smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. In Yunnan, the smelting cost was restricted by low processing fees, and year - end consumption was weak. In Jiangxi, the supply of recycled raw materials was insufficient. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. In November, the output of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased by 0.69% compared with October, supported by orders from emerging fields. However, high tin prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the spot transaction was light this week [10][11]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to run in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, nickel prices fell and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 1,254,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 6,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 51.07 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines CIF was reported at 52.7 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 892 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Currently, the excess pressure of nickel is still large, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to tax cobalt elements, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to run in the range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to run in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,645 yuan, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 114,700 - 117,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 150 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 112,500 - 114,000 yuan. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 123,520 yuan, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,150 yuan. The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons (- 0.6%) from last week, including a decrease of 239 tons in the upstream and 413 tons in the downstream and other links [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Jiuxiaowo lithium mine project is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. On Thursday, some long - positions took the initiative to stop profits in the morning, and the market was boosted by the news that Tianqi Lithium changed the spot pricing method at noon. Although there are occasional disturbances in the off - season concerns, the optimistic demand expectation cannot be falsified, and the long - position trend in the futures market has not ended. The position of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and capital games dominate the market. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The LC2605 contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on December 25, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,612 yuan/ton during the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 619,700 lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 16 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB fell 1 US dollar/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 63 yuan. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Thursday were reported at 161,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged at 66 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is strengthened. The overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% (- 85) on the day, with a unilateral position of 194,500 lots, a decrease of 5,017 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 290 (+ 35), and the Wuxi basis was - 190 (+ 35). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 905 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,100 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 48,495 tons, a decrease of 12,106 tons from the previous day. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%, including 631,700 tons of 300 - series inventory, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [23]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Indonesian government plans to set the nickel ore production target in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) at about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. Although the implementation details are not clear, this news has boosted the Shanghai nickel price and the stainless steel market. However, the actual spot market transaction is still light, and traders are cautious in quoting and mainly wait and see. In the short term, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound, but if the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, it may still drive prices up quickly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply situation has slightly improved, but the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level in December. The port inventory build - up will continue, and there is a risk of further price rebounds due to potential increased overhauls [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The U.S. Department of Energy postponed data release due to the Christmas holiday. INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.02%, to 442.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 15.00 yuan/ton, or 0.61%, to 2489.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.33%, to 3016.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 35 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 2.5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2162 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 23 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 30 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities generally rose, and rubber prices increased significantly. Rubber winter - storage buying demand is a bullish factor. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire inventory increased. As of December 14, 2025, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons, or 2.6%. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed. [9][10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 24 yuan to 4757 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 277 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of caustic soda was 715 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%; the calcium - carbide method was 77.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Factory inventory was 329,000 tons (down 16,000 tons), and social inventory was 1.057 million tons (down 3,000 tons) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5315 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5434 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton (widened by 27 yuan/ton). The spot price of styrene rose 25 yuan/ton to 6625 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active styrene contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 6638 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 13 yuan/ton (weakened by 15 yuan/ton). The BZN spread was 127.75 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton), the non - integrated EB device profit was - 198.35 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton (narrowed by 19 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 139,300 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6390 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6325 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton (strengthened by 68 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 458,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,200 tons; the trader inventory was 32,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 16 yuan/ton (strengthened by 12 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The production enterprise inventory was 533,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the trader inventory was 187,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons; the port inventory was 68,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 64 yuan to 7358 yuan, the PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 901 US dollars, and the basis was 24 yuan (up 43 yuan) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was 4 yuan (down 12 yuan). The PX load: China's load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous month; Asia's load was 78.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. In terms of devices, Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, a 260,000 - ton device of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 200,000 - ton device of Idemitsu was restarting. The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of December, an increase of 8,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 361 US dollars (up 7 US dollars), South Korea's PX - MX was 154 US dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (down 1 US dollar) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 58 yuan to 5152 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 5050 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (up 6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan (up 16 yuan). The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 19 was 2.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market rose 16 yuan to 325 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract was unchanged at 3818 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 3653 yuan, the basis was - 8 yuan (up 5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 73 yuan (down 11 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 72.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on December 24 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 969 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1052 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan. The cost of ethylene was unchanged at 745 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell

文字早评 2025/12/26 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部回应是否会放松对美稀土磁体出口的限制：积极促进、便利合规贸易； 2、据证券时报，四家头部硅片企业今日联合大幅上调报价，业内普遍反馈，本次硅片涨价主要是上游 硅料涨幅较大所致； 3、国家烟草专卖局：推动电子烟市场供需平衡 切实防范化解市场无序竞争风险； 4、芯片：美光财报会披露，洁净室已成解决 HBM 产能问题的核心，计划将 2026 年洁净室建厂资本支出 翻倍。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.23%/-0.52%/-0.69%/-1.74%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.17%/-0.73%/-1.22%/-3.71%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.43%/-1.40%/-2.12%/-5.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/0.00%/0.04%/-0.16%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 112.510 ，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Driven by the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, gold and silver prices have continued to rise strongly, hitting new historical highs. Silver has benefited more from the Fed's loose expectations, with a significantly higher increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to 61.6 [2]. - The economic data released recently do not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level. The market has strengthened the expectation of a dovish new Fed chairman and the pricing of the subsequent interest - rate cut amplitude. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year [3]. - From the perspective of the overseas medium - term monetary policy trend, as the Fed cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet simultaneously, gold and silver prices will continue to perform strongly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.07% to 1019.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.50% to 18131.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4530.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 73.35 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.95 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4% [3]. 3.3 Data Changes - For gold, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract decreased by 0.21%, the trading volume decreased by 37.91%, the position increased by 8.91%, and the inventory remained unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.71%. The closing price of SHFE gold's active contract decreased by 0.58%, the trading volume decreased by 37.41%, the position decreased by 0.89%, the inventory remained unchanged, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 1.47%. The closing price of AuT + D decreased by 0.42%, the trading volume decreased by 48.02%, and the position increased by 2.11% [6]. - For silver, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract increased by 0.37%, the position decreased by 1.19%, and the inventory increased by 0.10%. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 0.75%. The closing price of SHFE silver's active contract decreased by 1.20%, the trading volume increased by 1.64%, the position decreased by 3.60%, the inventory decreased by 3.35%, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 4.76%. The closing price of AgT + D decreased by 1.69%, the trading volume decreased by 50.32%, and the position decreased by 1.74% [6]. 3.4 Market Expectations - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year, as shown by the CME interest - rate observer [3]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing in this way [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - side seller strategy and a bull spread combination strategy of call options; for stock index options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - side seller strategy, a bull spread combination strategy of call options, and an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,940.95, up 20.97 (0.53%), with a trading volume of 773.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.9 billion yuan, and a PE of 16.46 [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,486.42, up 117.43 (0.88%), with a trading volume of 1106.3 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4 billion yuan, and a PE of 31.16 [3]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,025.18, down 2.34 (- 0.08%), with a trading volume of 91.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.2 billion yuan, and a PE of 11.78 [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,634.06, up 13.32 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 406.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.8 billion yuan, and a PE of 14.11 [3]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,352.04, up 95.25 (1.31%), with a trading volume of 331.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4 billion yuan, and a PE of 33.37 [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,506.38, up 113.96 (1.54%), with a trading volume of 406.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1 billion yuan, and a PE of 45.83 [3]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.099, up 0.001 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 6.6204 million shares, an increase of 6.5481 million shares, and a trading value of 2.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.191 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.757, up 0.017 (0.36%), with a trading volume of 5.3343 million shares, an increase of 5.2535 million shares, and a trading value of 2.531 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.302 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 7.470, up 0.096 (1.30%), with a trading volume of 3.5037 million shares, an increase of 3.4852 million shares, and a trading value of 2.611 billion yuan, an increase of 1.246 billion yuan [4]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.423, up 0.013 (0.92%), with a trading volume of 20.6799 million shares, an increase of 20.4685 million shares, and a trading value of 2.927 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.059 billion yuan [4]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.378, up 0.013 (0.95%), with a trading volume of 6.2588 million shares, an increase of 6.1892 million shares, and a trading value of 0.858 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.095 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.832, up 0.020 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 1.1571 million shares, an increase of 1.1332 million shares, and a trading value of 0.558 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.594 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.950, up 0.043 (1.48%), with a trading volume of 1.1667 million shares, an increase of 1.1590 million shares, and a trading value of 0.343 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0118 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.478, up 0.010 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 0.9761 million shares, an increase of 0.9682 million shares, and a trading value of 0.338 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0063 billion yuan [4]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.212, up 0.027 (0.85%), with a trading volume of 7.8286 million shares, an increase of 7.7340 million shares, and a trading value of 2.505 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.51 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 788,200 contracts, a decrease of 92,600 contracts; the position was 1,281,300 contracts, a decrease of 22,700 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.76, a decrease of 0.16; the position PCR was 1.02, a decrease of 0.01 [5]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 894,700 contracts, a decrease of 121,200 contracts; the position was 1,311,300 contracts, an increase of 12,400 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.83, a decrease of 0.09; the position PCR was 1.10, unchanged [5]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,435,500 contracts, an increase of 258,900 contracts; the position was 1,196,300 contracts, a decrease of 7,800 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.31; the position PCR was 1.33, an increase of 0.12 [5]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,185,800 contracts, a decrease of 92,800 contracts; the position was 2,395,700 contracts, an increase of 8,400 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.66, a decrease of 0.06; the position PCR was 0.94, an increase of 0.02 [5]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 256,100 contracts, a decrease of 5,900 contracts; the position was 640,100 contracts, an increase of 300 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.68, a decrease of 0.19; the position PCR was 0.95, unchanged [5]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 350,700 contracts, an increase of 96,200 contracts; the position was 336,100 contracts, a decrease of 6,600 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.94, an increase of 0.03; the position PCR was 1.04, an increase of 0.03 [5]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 434,300 contracts, an increase of 134,400 contracts; the position was 418,100 contracts, an increase of 9,200 contracts; the volume PCR was 1.20, an increase of 0.12; the position PCR was 1.18, an increase of 0.14 [5]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume was 43,400 contracts, a decrease of 44,900 contracts; the position was 123,200 contracts, a decrease of 1,100 contracts; the volume PCR was 1.03, a decrease of 0.36; the position PCR was 1.40, a decrease of 0.08 [5]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume was 1,763,900 contracts, a decrease of 305,000 contracts; the position was 1,854,200 contracts, a decrease of 89,300 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.78, a decrease of 0.29; the position PCR was 1.50, an increase of 0.11 [5]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the trading volume was 22,500 contracts, an increase of 1,600 contracts; the position was 47,500 contracts, an increase of 2,300 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.49, a decrease of 0.24; the position PCR was 0.65, a decrease of 0.01 [5]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the trading volume was 94,600 contracts, an increase of 20,000 contracts; the position was 154,400 contracts, an increase of 7,500 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.55, a decrease of 0.09; the position PCR was 0.68, a decrease of 0.01 [5]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume was 248,400 contracts, an increase of 91,200 contracts; the position was 251,600 contracts, an increase of 5,700 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.64, a decrease of 0.13; the position PCR was 0.99, an increase of 0.05 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure Points and Support Points - For the Shanghai 50 ETF, the pressure point was 3.10, with an offset of - 0.10; the support point was 3.00, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 56,894, and the maximum put position was 52,007 [7]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF, the pressure point was 4.80, with an offset of 0; the support point was 4.60, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 67,750, and the maximum put position was 71,553 [7]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF, the pressure point was 7.50, with an offset of 0.25; the support point was 7.25, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 60,932, and the maximum put position was 89,703 [7]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the pressure point was 1.40, with an offset of 0; the support point was 1.40, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 78,670, and the maximum put position was 82,504 [7]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the pressure point was 1.50, with an offset of 0; the support point was 1.25, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 21,257, and the maximum put position was 16,418 [7]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF, the pressure point was 4.90, with an offset of 0; the support point was 4.80, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 10,781, and the maximum put position was 8,352 [7]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF, the pressure point was 2.90, with an offset of 0; the support point was 2.90, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 9,793, and the maximum put position was 8,231 [7]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF, the pressure point was 3.60, with an offset of 0; the support point was 3.40, with an offset of 0.20; the maximum call position was 2,861, and the maximum put position was 2,702 [7]. - For the ChiNext ETF, the pressure point was 3.20, with an offset of 0; the support point was 3.10, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 77,483, and the maximum put position was 68,255 [7]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the pressure point was 3,050, with an offset of - 50; the support point was 3,000, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 2,552, and the maximum put position was 2,127 [7]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the pressure point was 4,600, with an offset of 0; the support point was 4,600, with an offset of 100; the maximum call position was 10,751, and the maximum put position was 5,706 [7]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the pressure point was 7,500, with an offset of 0; the support point was 7,200, with an offset of 0; the maximum call position was 7,147, and the maximum put position was 7,722 [7]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 10.04%, the weighted implied volatility was 12.95%, an increase of 0.63%, the annual average was 15.99%, the call implied volatility was 13.15%, the put implied volatility was 12.67%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 12.03%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 0.92% [10]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 30.99%, the weighted implied volatility was 14.69%, an increase of 0.82%, the annual average was 16.61%, the call implied volatility was 14.66%, the put implied volatility was 14.73%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 13.40%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 1.29% [10]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 16.44%, the weighted implied volatility was 18.63%, an increase of 1.44%, the annual average was 20.38%, the call implied volatility was 18.37%, the put implied volatility was 18.93%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 17.09%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was 1.54% [10]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 47.69%, the weighted implied volatility was 25.38%, an increase of 0.70%, the annual average was 33.82%, the call implied volatility was 25.55%, the put implied volatility was 25.14%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 25.64%, and the implied - historical volatility difference was - 0.26% [10]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The sentiment is still supported under the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The copper ore supply remains in a tight pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply due to the expected US copper tariff. However, the benchmark of the long - term copper concentrate processing fee is slightly higher than expected, and the weak consumption at the end of the year increases the upward resistance of copper prices in the short term. It is recommended to view copper prices as a high - level oscillation. The operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract today is expected to be 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The overall aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and there are supply disturbances overseas, so aluminum prices are strongly supported. But the weak downstream consumption exerts pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the short term. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract today is expected to be 22,000 - 22,350 yuan/ton [5][6]. - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains flat. The operating rate of primary lead smelters increases. The inventory of waste batteries decreases marginally, and the operating rate of secondary lead decreases marginally. The supply of lead ingots in China tightens marginally, and the apparent inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and it is expected to run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8][9]. - The apparent inventory of zinc concentrate rises, and the TC of zinc concentrate stops falling and stabilizes. With the increase of the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of zinc ore in China will be marginally alleviated. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulates, and the LME zinc monthly spread returns to the Contango structure. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China continues to decline, and the spot basis rises, but the monthly spread remains low. Be vigilant about the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metal funds [10][11]. - Although the current tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited under the low downstream inventory. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with the change of market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12][13]. - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to the proposed tax on cobalt elements by the Indonesian government, the bearish sentiment in the market has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel prices is expected to be 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [15][16]. - The potential supply pressure in the short - term of lithium carbonate is eliminated, and the bullish sentiment in the market is strong. The long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. The trading of lithium carbonate is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. Pay attention to the changes in fundamentals and seat positions. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [19][20]. - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea gradually recovers, and the AXIS mine resumes production. The ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. But the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [22][23]. - The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 has pushed up the prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel. But the actual spot market transaction is still relatively light, and there is a lack of driving factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25][26]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disturbances. The price has strong support at the bottom, but the demand is relatively volatile and the delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. The price of cast aluminum alloy may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [28][29]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB continued to strengthen. The rise of precious metals and concerns about supply reduction drove up copper prices. LME copper closed up 0.65% at 12,133 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 95,020 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined. In China, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 52,000 tons, and the spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at 2,956 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,145 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted Shanghai aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 662,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 76,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods was lowered. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 170 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 521,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 1.36% at 17,221 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 91,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S rose 20 to 1,997.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 178,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 12,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,100 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 99,800 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 400 tons to 19,100 tons [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.62% at 23,243 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 201,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose 39 to 3,125.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 227,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,260 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 90 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was at par, and the Guangdong basis was - 5 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, and the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 99,000 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,800 tons. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 700 tons to 119,300 tons [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 24, 2025, the closing price of the main Shanghai tin contract was 341,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed a high - level stability but lacked upward momentum. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was 86.11%, basically the same as last week, and remained stable throughout the fourth quarter. The tin ore processing fee in this area was still at a historical low, restricting the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises continued to face a significant shortage of recycled raw materials. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. The production of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October, mainly supported by orders from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers. But the high tin price significantly suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading atmosphere was dull this week [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices first rose and then fell. The main Shanghai nickel contract closed at 128,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.79% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,771 yuan, an increase of 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4,100 yuan (+3.66%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.95%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 124,720 yuan, an increase of 3.62% from the previous day's closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2000 yuan [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 24, 2025, as of 3 pm, the alumina index rose 1.36% to 2618 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position decreased by 32,800 lots to 617,900 lots. The spot price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,635 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton over the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained unchanged at 309 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 161,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 66 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% (+170). The unilateral position increased by 12,611 lots to 199,500 lots. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and 304 scrap steel increased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained unchanged. The futures inventory decreased by 12,106 tons to 48,495 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 1.01% at 21,480 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 28,300 lots, and the trading volume was 12,200 lots. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,200 tons. The spread between the AL2602 and AD2602 contracts narrowed. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 100 tons to 47,300 tons [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. Affected by the export license management policy, the prices of finished products still face some short - term pressure, and the policy impact is expected to be gradually digested later. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro - level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range. The support at the lower level is relatively solid in the short term. After the rebound of the futures price, the basis has shrunk [5]. - The market sentiment of the black commodity chain has clearly warmed up. The future trends of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are mainly led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Also, the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply of ferrous alloys needs attention [8][9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest region [12]. - The futures price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to weak demand and limited capacity contraction [18]. - The soda ash market's rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.255%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 60684 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.597429 million lots, an increase of 17388 lots. The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.121%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 104293 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.229562 million lots, an increase of 31165 lots. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of hot - rolled coils has significantly declined, the apparent demand has weakened slightly, the inventory has continued to fall, but the inventory pressure is still relatively prominent. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 779.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The position changed by - 317 lots to 553,700 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 920,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.78 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period decreased month - on - month. The daily average pig iron production continued to decline. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Ferrous Alloys (Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese - Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 24, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM603) maintained an oscillation, closing up 0.17% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to cost - push from manganese ore and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5656 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Due to increasing production losses, some enterprises have shut down or switched production, leading to a supply decline and a certain rebound in the futures price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to supply contraction due to losses and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) was 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.91% (+80). The weighted contract position changed by - 2859 lots to 398,154 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, both with no change. The basis of the main contract was 340 yuan/ton for 553 and - 10 yuan/ton for 421 [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in the short term. The weekly production decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2605) was 58300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.56% (- 925). The weighted contract position changed by - 12830 lots to 210,746 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 5950 yuan/ton for the main contract. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has introduced position limits and added delivery warehouses [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon production in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton, up 1.95% (+20). The large - plate price in North China was 1020 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 28192 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31578 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is still weak, and the market is in a supply - demand loosening pattern. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton, up 0.77% (+9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 13051 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 14971 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical industry is divided into several categories including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. [9] - For each selected option variety, the report provides option strategies based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, aiming to enhance returns through strategies such as option combinations and spot hedging [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 443 with a decline of 0 and a decline rate of - 0.02%, and its trading volume is 6.58 million lots with a decrease of 1.40 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, volume PCR, and open interest PCR of various option varieties. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.63 with no change, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 with no change [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets of various option varieties are provided. For instance, the pressure point of crude oil options is 540 and the support point is 400 [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of each option variety. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 24.925%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.31% with a decrease of - 0.25% [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Crude Oil Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil inventories have different changes. The overall trend shows a weak market [8] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.70, pressure point is 540, and support point is 430 [8] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct bear spread of put options, sell call + put option combinations, and build long collar strategies for spot hedging [8] - **LPG Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, and the demand increased. The overall market shows a weak downward trend [10] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, open interest PCR is below 0.80, pressure point is 4300, and support point is 4000 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct bear spread of put options, sell call + put option combinations, and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [10] - **Methanol Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The开工 rate of related industries has different changes, and the market shows a weak trend after a rebound [10] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure point is 2300, and support point is 2000 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Sell call + put option combinations and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory pressure increases, and the market shows a weak downward trend [11] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is above the average and rising, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure point is 3800, and support point is 3600 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct bear spread of put options, sell volatility strategies, and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [11] - **PVC Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory and开工 rate have changed, and the market is weak [11] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility decreases below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure point is 5000, and support point is 4300 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Use long collar strategies for spot hedging [11] - **Rubber Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the market shows a weak consolidation trend [12] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility gradually returns to the average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure point is 16000, and support point is 15000 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Sell call + put option combinations to maintain a neutral position [12] - **PTA Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the market shows a strong short - term trend after a rebound [12] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is around 0.80, pressure point is 4750, and support point is 4400 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct bull spread of call options, sell call + put option combinations, and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [12] - **Caustic Soda Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the market is weak [13] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a high level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure point is 2320, and support point is 2000 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct bear spread strategies, and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The cost and profit situation has changed, and the market shows a weak consolidation trend [13] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, open interest PCR is below 0.50, pressure point is 1300, and support point is 1100 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct bear spread strategies, sell volatility combinations, and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [13] - **Urea Options**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply - demand difference has increased, and the market shows a short - term weak trend [14] - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure point is 1700, and support point is 1640 [14] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Sell call + put option combinations to maintain a neutral position, and use long collar strategies for spot hedging [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards. For the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to large - scale fluctuations. For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 95,020, with a decrease of 240 and a decline rate of 0.25% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties. The volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying asset's market has a turning point, and the open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the underlying asset's market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options, the report determines the pressure and support levels of option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of copper is 96,000 and the support level is 84,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It provides information on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of each option variety [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the supply surplus in the refined copper market and the upward - trending market, strategies include constructing a call option bull spread combination for directional gains, a short - volatility seller's option combination for time - value gains, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors like production capacity constraints and strong demand, strategies include a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Considering the strong resistance in the spot market and the opening of the import window, strategies include a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Given factors such as supply disturbances and market trends, strategies include a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Due to slow复产 in mines and low production levels, strategies include a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Based on inventory and market trends, strategies include a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: With factors like increased ETF holdings and a rising market, strategies include a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. Black Series - **Rebar**: Considering the production capacity utilization rate and market trends, strategies include a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Based on inventory and market trends, strategies include a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, strategies include a short - volatility strategy. For industrial silicon, strategies include a put option bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy. For glass, strategies include a put option bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [14][15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and by - products maintain a volatile trend, soft commodities like sugar have small - scale fluctuations, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly by selling options, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The futures prices of various agricultural products have different changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,077, up 1 (0.02%); soybean meal (M2603) is 3,006, down 1 (- 0.03%); and egg (JD2602) is 2,947, up 66 (2.29%) [3]. - The trading volume and open interest of different varieties also vary. For instance, the trading volume of soybean meal (M2603) is 16.79 million lots, an increase of 3.16 million lots; the open interest of corn (C2603) is 98.67 million lots, a decrease of 0.07 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - The quantity and position PCR of different option varieties show different trends. For example, the quantity PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.65, down 0.28; the position PCR is 1.06, down 0.03 [4]. - Quantity PCR is mainly used to describe whether the underlying asset's market has a turning point, while position PCR is used to describe the strength of the underlying asset's market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are different. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000; the pressure level of soybean meal is 3,100, and the support level is 3,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.88%, and the weighted implied volatility is 11.60%, up 0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Oils and Oilseeds Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: The uncertainty of China's demand for US soybeans and the expected Brazilian harvest in early 2026 put pressure on the soybean market. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price of coastal 43% protein soybean meal has decreased. The market may continue to be under pressure, but the demand is expected to increase. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: High production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. The price may rise if there is a successful production cut in the first quarter. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The trading volume has increased, and the prices in different regions have different trends. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **By - product Options**: - **Pig**: The spot price has rebounded, and the futures curve has changed to a contango structure. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The存栏 of laying hens is expected to decrease. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The sales in different regions are different. The option strategy includes constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The market price is stable, and the trading volume has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar**: The new sugar - making season has increased production, but there are also factors such as import restrictions. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The inspection volume of new - season cotton has increased, and the downstream operating rate has decreased. The option strategy includes constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: The supply pressure may increase before the Spring Festival. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13].