专题报告 2025-12-29 多晶硅：风控措施密集，情绪溢价压缩 报告要点： 综合来看，多晶硅期货当前正处于从情绪驱动向基本面定价切换的阶段。广期所的强力风控有 效抑制了非理性交易，为价格回归产业逻辑创造了条件。产业层面，减产与提价的尝试正在重 塑价格体系，但其可持续性仍取决于终端的接受度与企业减产的执行力度。在强监管环境下， 期货价格走势更可能围绕现货成交价格展开波动。若现货成交持续修复，期货价格或在现货上 方维持有限升水；若现货端再度转弱，期货价格亦有较高回落风险。总体而言，期货市场将从 "讲故事"阶段回到"算账"阶段，波动中枢由预期主导转向现实回归。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材研究 | 多晶硅 12 月中旬，多晶硅期货盘面在较短时间内快速拉升，加权合约一度突破 6.2 万元/吨整数关口， 近月合约最高站上 6.3 万元/吨。对比现货端，多晶硅现货价格虽有小幅回升，但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand is still weak, and the fundamentals of hot-rolled coils are under pressure. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and its marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The supply of iron ore has decreased in the latest period, the demand has remained stable, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. With the late Spring Festival in 2026, there is some room for replenishment demand. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has become more positive, but the capital's interest in the black sector has declined. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound in the black sector at low levels, especially in the alloy sector. The future market of manganese and silicon ferroalloys is mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - The supply of industrial silicon has slightly increased, and the demand support has weakened, with the possibility of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. - Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the sentiment of the polysilicon futures market has cooled. The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease further. The price of the upstream raw materials is supported by the price increase in the industrial chain, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. - The glass market is in the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The supply of soda ash is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1815 tons to 60442 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 47415 lots to 1.534424 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3160 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Last Friday, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate in the bottom range. This week, the rebar production slightly increased, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory was at a five - year low [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104588 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 6522 lots to 1.23239 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand slightly increased, the inventory continued to decrease, and the inventory contradiction was marginally alleviated. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.58% (+4.50). The open interest increased by 13627 lots to 580700 lots. The weighted open interest was 941200 lots. The price of PB fines in Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.53% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output remained stable. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's inventory of imported ore increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. Manganese and Silicon Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.10% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, equivalent to the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 34 yuan/ton or +0.58% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push factors from manganese ore [11]. Silicon Ferro - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of silicon ferro (SF603) closed down 0.35% at 5672 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 36 yuan/ton or +0.64% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand structure of silicon ferro remains basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and supply - contraction factors due to losses [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8880 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.51% (+45). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6205 lots to 402891 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 320 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production in the southwest has reached a low level, while the operating rate in Xinjiang has increased. The demand from polysilicon has weakened, and the demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 58955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.97% (-1805). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 19718 lots to 193125 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon and N - type dense material remained unchanged, and the average price of N - type re - feed material increased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis was - 6555 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the market sentiment has cooled. The production is expected to decrease further. The price increase in the industrial chain supports the raw material price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1047 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 0.10% (-1). The prices of large - sized glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 65000 cases (+0.11%) to 58.623 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 25732 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 29724 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market has entered the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, unchanged from the previous day. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 60800 tons (-4.06%) to 1.4385 million tons, including a decrease of 68700 tons in heavy - soda inventory and an increase of 7900 tons in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 20353 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23163 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the price is expected to build a bottom while oscillating. Buying on dips is recommended [9] - For rubber, a neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] - For polypropylene, there is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.27% decline, at 441.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories decreased [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 40 yuan [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased. The main futures contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. Buying on dips is recommended [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose significantly. There are different views among bulls and bears. The start - up load of domestic tire enterprises showed different trends, and social inventory increased [11][12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, with a fast - in - and - out approach. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 75 yuan to 4832 yuan. The overall start - up rate decreased slightly, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased. Supply - side start - up rate increased, and port inventory increased. Demand - side start - up rate decreased [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low, with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene is recommended [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 75 yuan/ton to 6465 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. Buying the LL5 - 9 spread on dips is recommended [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 26 yuan/ton to 6292 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, production and trader inventories decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a supply surplus in the cost side. With high inventory pressure and weak supply - demand, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [25] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 198 yuan to 7556 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. PTA load decreased, and import volume increased [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term correction risks should be noted [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 128 yuan to 5280 yuan. The PTA load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. There are opportunities for long - term buying on dips, but short - term over - expectation correction risks should be noted [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 28 yuan to 3846 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [31] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has high overall load, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium term, valuation compression is expected without further production cuts [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. - For palm oil, the Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. - For sugar, international sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. - For cotton, the market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. - For eggs, the spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. - For pigs, short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans opened higher and then fell. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from last week's 1.8404 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.45 days last week, up 0.22 days [2]. - Forecasts show more rain in major Brazilian soybean - growing areas in the next two weeks, while rainfall in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, remains low [2]. 策略观点 - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. Palm Oil 行情资讯 - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December. Ship - loading data indicates mixed trends in exports [4]. - India's vegetable oil imports decreased by about 11% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year in November [4]. - Indonesia plans to fine palm oil growers and miners $8.5 billion for forest encroachment [4]. - Last Friday, domestic oils continued to rebound, with better Malaysian palm oil export data and Indonesia's fine plan being positive factors, but high production and low exports limited the market [4]. 策略观点 - The Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. Sugar 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The May contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% [8]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [9]. - In November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production [9]. - As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons [9]. 策略观点 - International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. Cotton 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose with increased positions. The May contract closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton or 1.96% [12]. - In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons [12]. - As of December 26, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and down 6.7 percentage points from the five - year average [12]. - The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [12]. 策略观点 - The market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. Eggs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable or rising. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, while that in Guantao remained at 2.82 yuan/jin. Egg prices may rebound slightly recently but may fall after the New Year's Day [15]. 策略观点 - The spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. Pigs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose significantly. The average price in Henan increased by 0.56 yuan to 12.42 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.67 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. Pig prices are expected to be stable or rising today [18]. 策略观点 - Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19].

农产品期权 2025-12-26 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

金融期权 2025-12-26 金融期权策略早报 | | 理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李立勤 李仁君 | 高级投研经 产业服务岗 | 从业资格号：F3074095 从业资格号： F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 电话：0755-23375255 | 邮箱： lilq@wkqh.cn 邮箱： lirj@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率下降至历史均值偏下水平。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Date - The report is dated December 26, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy [2] - For the black metals maintaining a large - amplitude volatile market, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2] - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread portfolio strategy [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Futures Market Overview - The table presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various metal futures contracts [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open - interest PCR of different metal options are provided, along with their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call option holdings, and maximum put option holdings of different metal options are given, helping to identify potential price barriers and supports [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied - volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 5. Option Strategies and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for silicon iron, construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot hedging - related strategy [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector, including analysis of underlying asset market conditions, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 445, with a price increase of 2 and a percentage increase of 0.38%. Its trading volume is 4.59 million lots, a decrease of 1.99 million lots, and the open interest is 3.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.19 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - Open Interest PCR**: This factor is used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset market and the turning point of the underlying asset market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.73, with a change of 0.10, and the open interest PCR is 0.77, with a change of - 0.01 [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 400 [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: Includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.115%, the weighted implied volatility is 27.68%, with a change of 0.37% [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The total US crude oil inventory decreased by 1.025 million barrels (- 0.12%) to 837 million barrels, while the strategic crude oil inventory increased by 249,000 barrels (+ 0.06%) to 412 million barrels. The market showed a weak trend overall [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540, and the support level was 430 [8]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and adjust the position dynamically to keep the delta of the position short; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The total LPG supply decreased by 52,000 tons to 1.1946 million tons last week. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate to 75%. The market showed a bearish trend with resistance above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300, and the support level was 4000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy to obtain directional returns; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The MTO operating rate decreased by 0.71 percentage points to 89.49%. The market showed a weak trend with resistance above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuated around the historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300, and the support level was 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The inventory in the East China main port increased by 25,000 tons to 844,000 tons, indicating a continuous oversupply situation. The market showed a weak bearish trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated above the average level, with an increasing volatility. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level was 3800, and the support level was 3600 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The factory inventory of PVC was 344,000 tons (+18,000 tons), and the social inventory was 517,000 tons (- 12,000 tons). The market showed a weak trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PVC options decreased to a level below the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening trend. The pressure level was 5000, and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons. The market showed a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options gradually returned to a level around the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak overall market. The pressure level dropped significantly to 17,000, and the support level was 14,000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The PX plant operating rate remained high, and the new production capacity was expected to be put into operation. The PTA plant inventory continued to accumulate. The market showed a short - term strong trend after a rebound from oversold conditions [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a relatively low average level. The open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong PTA market recently. The pressure level was 4750, and the support level was 4400 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bullish call spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a decrease of 1.5% week - on - week. The market showed a weak bearish trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuated at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market recently. The pressure level was 2320, and the support level was 2000 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The production cost of the ammonia - soda process decreased, and the production cost of the combined - soda process in East China also decreased. The market showed a low - level weak consolidation trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuated at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1300, and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Urea**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The supply - demand difference increased by 14.16% week - on - week, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 54,500 tons. The market showed a short - term weak trend with resistance above [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated at a relatively low historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1700, and the support level was 1640 [14]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The prices of finished products are under short - term pressure due to export license management policies but are expected to gradually digest policy disturbances. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and the macro level is in a policy observation period [3]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. The decline in hot metal production has reduced marginal pressure. The late Spring Festival in 2026 has postponed the restocking time, and the low inventory of steel mills provides restocking demand expectations. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the market macro - sentiment fluctuations have temporarily ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and possible emergencies in the manganese ore market [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. The supply decline depends on the production rhythm in the northwest. The demand from polysilicon weakens, and the demand from silicone is relatively stable in the short term. The price is expected to follow the market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - For polysilicon, the production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is still unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2057 tons to 58627 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 15590 lots to 1.581839 million lots. In the spot market, the rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 295 tons to 104588 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 9350 lots to 1.238912 million lots. In the spot market, the hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanghai it was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production increased slightly this week, apparent demand declined, and the inventory level was at a five - year low. For hot - rolled coils, production continued to decline, apparent demand strengthened slightly, inventory continued to decrease, and inventory contradictions were marginally alleviated. Beijing's relaxation of housing purchase policies may have a demonstration effect on other first - tier cities and help digest real - estate inventory. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 778.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00). The open interest increased by 13387 lots to 567100 lots, and the weighted open interest was 932500 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.96 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.59% [4]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, while those from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot - metal production was stable at 226.58 tons. The profitability of steel mills improved. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still at a five - year low. Iron ore prices are expected to mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On December 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fluctuated, closing up 0.24% at 5846 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 64 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.64% at 5692 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 8 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment fluctuations have ended, and the black chain index has rebounded. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and supply has declined due to losses. Future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, manganese ore cost - push for manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon supply contraction due to losses [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8835 yuan/ton, down 0.28% (- 25). The weighted open interest decreased by 1468 lots to 396686 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 365 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% (+ 2460). The weighted open interest increased by 2097 lots to 212843 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were unchanged. The basis was - 8410 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for polysilicon futures contracts from December 29, 2025 [13][14][15]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The short - term price rebounds to fill the gap and fluctuates strongly. Supply decline depends on the northwest production rhythm, and polysilicon demand support weakens. The price is expected to follow market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. - Polysilicon: Production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Although the upper - middle reaches are raising prices, the futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: The glass main contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.95% (+ 20). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan (unchanged), and in Central China it was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57% (331000 cases). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 13175 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13150 short positions [18]. - Soda ash: The soda ash main contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.77% (+ 9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan (unchanged). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57% (5000 tons), with heavy - soda inventory down 18800 tons and light - soda inventory up 23800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11632 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13318 short positions [20]. b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a supply - demand relaxation pattern. In the short term, the market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation [19]. - Soda ash: Downstream demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. The price decline space is limited due to corporate losses. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [21].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 农产品早报 2025-12-26 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 蛋白粕 【行情资讯】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆因假期休市。周四国内豆粕现货稳定，成交一般，提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂 大豆压榨量为 213.06 万吨，上周压榨大豆 212.06 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.23 环比上升 0.1 天，上 周港口大豆大幅去库 50 万吨，不过豆粕库存因压榨量较大有所升高，豆粕库存同比增加约 55 万吨。 杨泽元 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也处于正常水平，不过阿根廷最大主 产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不 足以产生 CBOT ...