Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - **Strategy**: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - **Strategy**: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - **Strategy**: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of overseas medium - term monetary policy trends, the Fed's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion will lead to a continuously strong performance of precious metals prices. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15519 - 18000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.23% to 1010.30 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.54% to 17211.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4505.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 71.88 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.93 [2] - The recently announced US employment data for the week exceeded expectations, suppressing the short - term prices of gold and silver. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000. After the data was announced, the prices of gold and silver rose briefly and then fell [2] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, but it was significantly affected by medical insurance prices. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating that the economic data did not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of price levels [3] 3.3 Fed Chairmanship and Interest Rate Expectations - Trump clearly stated that "those who oppose him will never get the position of Fed Chair", which strengthened the market's expectation of a dovish new Fed Chair and the pricing of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts. The CME interest rate monitor shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July 2026 FOMC meetings [3] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's CFTC - reported weekly open interest increased 8.91% to 471,100 lots, and inventory remained unchanged at 1,125 tons. LBMA gold's closing price rose 0.63% to 4449.40 US dollars/ounce. SHFE gold's closing price rose 0.04% to 1014.68 yuan/gram, trading volume increased 29.19% to 491,200 lots, and open interest decreased 3.00% to 359,800 lots. The precipitation of funds decreased 2.96% to 58.418 billion yuan. AuT + D's trading volume decreased 10.36% to 55.63 tons, and open interest increased 2.36% to 229.72 tons [5] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's CFTC - reported weekly open interest decreased 1.19% to 152,900 lots, and inventory increased 0.10% to 14,039 tons. LBMA silver's closing price rose 0.75% to 69.74 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver's closing price rose 7.10% to 17,609.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume increased 38.32% to 3,301,300 lots, and open interest increased 3.06% to 819,200 lots. The precipitation of funds increased 10.38% to 38.949 billion yuan. AgT + D's trading volume increased 23.70% to 1010.78 tons, and open interest decreased 3.02% to 3184.882 tons [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there are still pressures in the future due to high imports and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies [3]. - For urea, the market continues to oscillate higher. The demand has improved in the short term, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently having a neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended. It is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong domestic supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, the load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market performance: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.68%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 2.00 yuan/ton, or 0.08%, to 2,480.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 14.00 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, to 3,014.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory data: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.70 million barrels to 6.27 million barrels, a 10.08% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 2.29 million barrels, a 14.25% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 10.38 million barrels, an 8.95% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.10 million barrels to 18.94 million barrels, a 10.00% decline [1]. Methanol - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively, while Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 2,172 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 24 yuan [2]. - Strategy: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port inventory will decline, but there are future pressures. The fundamentals have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Hubei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1,735 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: The market oscillates higher. The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand has improved, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Rubber - Market performance: Bulls believe in factors such as limited production growth due to weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, the seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the off - season demand, and the possible under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,000 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,000 tons, a 2.8% increase. The total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 494,200 (+94,000) tons [9][10]. - Strategy: A neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended, and it is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market performance: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4,781 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,480 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (-7) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.4%, a 2.1% decline from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decline. The factory inventory was 329,000 tons (-16,000), and the social inventory was 1.057 million tons (-3,000) [12]. - Strategy: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, and in the medium term, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products on the demand side was 40.60%, a 1.67% decline [16]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,408 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 112 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 17,200 tons to 487,800 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 35,600 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decline [19]. - Strategy: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 120 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 537,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 90,000 tons to 198,300 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 67,500 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decline [21]. - Strategy: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX - Market performance: The PX03 contract fell 8 yuan to 7,294 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 901 dollars. The basis was 24 yuan (+43), and the 3 - 5 spread was 16 yuan (-4). The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period; the Asian load was 78.9%, a 0.4% decline. Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, and some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. In mid - and early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons [24]. - Strategy: The load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. PTA - Market performance: The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan to 5,094 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan to 5,015 yuan. The basis was - 19 yuan (-2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 78 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom load decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 2.15 million tons, a 19,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee rose 17 yuan to 309 yuan [26]. - Strategy: The supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The EG05 contract rose 195 yuan to 3,818 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 3,573 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (-8), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan (+19). The ethylene glycol load was 72%, a 2% increase. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure was 12,000 tons on December 23. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 995 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1,064 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan [28]. - Strategy: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 农产品早报 2025-12-25 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收涨，受逢低买盘支撑，上方也面临美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期压力。周三国内豆粕 现货稳定，成交尚可，提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.06 万吨，上周压榨大豆 212.06 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.23 环比上升 0.1 天，上周港口大豆大幅去库 50 万吨，不过豆粕库存因压 榨量较大有所升高，豆粕库存同比增加约 55 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也处于正常水平，不过阿根廷最大主 产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不 足以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all experiencing such a market condition [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has dropped to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, in addition to the above two strategies, an arbitrage strategy of long synthetic futures and short futures can also be constructed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,919.98, up 2.61 points or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 8,069 billion yuan and an increase of 171 billion yuan in trading volume [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,368.99, up 36.26 points or 0.27%, with a trading volume of 10,930 billion yuan and an increase of 208 billion yuan in trading volume [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,027.52, up 7.29 points or 0.24%, with a trading volume of 1,105 billion yuan and an increase of 37 billion yuan in trading volume [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,620.73, up 9.11 points or 0.20%, with a trading volume of 4,331 billion yuan and a decrease of 151 billion yuan in trading volume [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,256.79, up 1.13 points or 0.02%, with a trading volume of 3,286 billion yuan and an increase of 14 billion yuan in trading volume [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,392.42, down 15.93 points or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 3,972 billion yuan and an increase of 160 billion yuan in trading volume [4]. 3.2 Option - Underlying ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.098, up 0.006 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 722.71 million shares and an increase of 717.27 million shares, and a trading volume of 22.41 billion yuan and an increase of 5.59 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.740, up 0.010 or 0.21%, with a trading volume of 808.34 million shares and an increase of 799.97 million shares, and a trading volume of 38.33 billion yuan and a decrease of 1.24 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 7.374, up 0.006 or 0.08%, with a trading volume of 185.06 million shares and an increase of 182.24 million shares, and a trading volume of 13.65 billion yuan and a decrease of 7.12 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.410, up 0.005 or 0.36%, with a trading volume of 2,114.00 million shares and an increase of 2,087.48 million shares, and a trading volume of 29.86 billion yuan and a decrease of 7.29 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 88.08 million contracts, an increase of 15.23 million contracts; the open interest was 130.40 million contracts, an increase of 4.81 million contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.92, an increase of 0.13; the open - interest PCR was 1.02, an increase of 0.05 [6]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 101.59 million contracts, a decrease of 0.29 million contracts; the open interest was 129.89 million contracts, an increase of 3.28 million contracts; the trading volume PCR was 0.92, an increase of 0.03; the open - interest PCR was 1.10, an increase of 0.07 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure point of the Shanghai 50 ETF is 3.20, and the support point is 3.00 [8]. - The pressure point of the Shanghai 300 ETF is 4.80, and the support point is 4.60 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 50 ETF option is 11.04%, the weighted implied volatility is 12.32%, a decrease of 1.21%, and the annual average is 15.99% [11]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 300 ETF option is 13.20%, the weighted implied volatility is 13.87%, a decrease of 1.38%, and the annual average is 16.60% [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Different sectors are recommended with corresponding option strategies [13]. - For the Shanghai 50 ETF in the financial stock sector, a seller - neutral combination strategy can be constructed to obtain time - value income, and a spot long - covered call strategy can also be adopted [14]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF in the large - cap blue - chip stock sector, a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options can be constructed, and a spot long - covered call strategy can also be used [14].

有色金属日报 2025-12-24 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币走强，美元指数偏弱，贵金属延续上涨，铜价创历史新高，昨日伦铜收涨 1.21%至 12055 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 94890 元/吨。LME 库存增加 825 至 158525 吨，注 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios with sellers as the main component, along with spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures have different price, trading volume, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 442, up 1 with a 0.14% increase, trading volume of 7.98 million lots (down 0.21 million lots), and open interest of 3.69 million lots (down 0.29 million lots) [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.63 (down 0.00), and the open interest PCR is 0.77 (up 0.03) [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 400 [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility of different option varieties varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 25.14%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.56% (up 0.24%) [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis: US crude oil inventories have different changes. The overall performance of crude oil is a weak market trend. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.70, pressure level is 540, and support level is 430. - Option strategies: Construct bearish option bear - spread strategy, short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] 3.5.2 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: Supply decreased, and demand increased. The market is a bearish oscillating market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is around the average, open interest PCR is below 0.80, pressure level is 4300, and support level is 4000. - Option strategies: Construct bearish option bear - spread strategy, short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Alcohols (Methanol) - Fundamental analysis: Demand changes may be limited in the short term. The market is a rebound - then - decline market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is around the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure level is 2300, and support level is 2000. - Option strategies: Construct short - biased call + put option combination strategy and long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Alcohols (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental analysis: Inventory pressure increases, indicating a supply - surplus situation. The market is a weak bearish market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is above the average and rising, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure level is 3800, and support level is 3600. - Option strategies: Construct bearish option bear - spread strategy, short volatility strategy, and long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefins (PVC) - Fundamental analysis: Inventory and production rates have changed. The market is a weak bearish market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has decreased to below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure level is 5000, and support level is 4300. - Option strategies: Construct long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.6 Rubber - Fundamental analysis: Inventory has increased. The market is a weak oscillating market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is approaching the average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure level is 16000, and support level is 15000. - Option strategies: Construct short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.7 Polyesters (PTA) - Fundamental analysis: Supply is becoming more abundant, and inventory is high. The market is a short - term strong rebound market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a low - average level, open interest PCR is around 0.80, pressure level is 4750, and support level is 4400. - Option strategies: Construct bullish option bull - spread strategy, short - bullish call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.8 Alkaline Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental analysis: Capacity utilization has decreased. The market is a weak bearish market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a high level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure level is 2320, and support level is 2000. - Option strategies: Construct bear - spread strategy and long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.9 Alkaline Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Fundamental analysis: Production costs and profits have changed. The market is a low - level weak oscillating market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, open interest PCR is below 0.50, pressure level is 1300, and support level is 1100. - Option strategies: Construct bear - spread strategy, short volatility combination strategy, and long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.10 Urea - Fundamental analysis: Supply - demand difference has increased, and inventory has decreased. The market is a short - term weak market. - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a low - historical average level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, pressure level is 1700, and support level is 1640. - Option strategies: Construct short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

农产品期权 2025-12-24 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they are trending upwards. - For the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - scale fluctuations. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested as they are rebounding and rising [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,890 | 980 | 1.04 | 13.88 | - 7.12 | 24.11 | - 0.57 | | Aluminum | 22,160 | 35 | 0.16 | 20.94 | - 4.45 | 30.18 | - 1.25 | | Zinc | 23,105 | 90 | 0.39 | 13.38 | - 0.06 | 9.31 | 0.25 | | Lead | 17,050 | 85 | 0.50 | 4.46 | - 0.46 | 5.81 | - 0.15 | | Nickel | 125,360 | 3,080 | 2.52 | 38.70 | 17.24 | 13.45 | 2.18 | | Tin | 336,110 | - 5,570 | - 1.63 | 22.86 | - 1.65 | 6.12 | 0.47 | | Alumina | 2,553 | 22 | 0.87 | 14.66 | 2.42 | 21.74 | - 0.38 | | Gold | 1,012.58 | 4.22 | 0.42 | 27.64 | - 0.24 | 19.99 | - 0.24 | | Silver | 16,961 | 674 | 4.14 | 123.02 | - 47.46 | 34.05 | - 0.09 | | Lithium Carbonate | 118,600 | 6,260 | 5.57 | 1.79 | - 0.89 | 3.49 | 0.09 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,735 | 115 | 1.33 | 3.86 | 2.10 | 8.93 | - 0.19 | | Polysilicon | 59,125 | - 655 | - 1.10 | 2.52 | - 0.82 | 2.89 | - 0.30 | | Rebar | 3,115 | - 19 | - 0.61 | 84.93 | 0.69 | 158.00 | - 1.19 | | Iron Ore | 787.50 | - 5.00 | - 0.63 | 0.64 | - 0.38 | 7.37 | - 0.04 | | Manganese Silicon | 5,804 | - 14 | - 0.24 | 1.73 | - 0.35 | 3.09 | - 0.27 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,520 | 20 | 0.36 | 4.38 | - 4.06 | 3.24 | - 0.28 | | Glass | 979 | 3 | 0.31 | 2.75 | - 0.88 | 4.25 | - 0.05 | [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR for different option varieties are presented, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option varieties are provided, which are derived from the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, are given for various option varieties [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a short - volatility seller option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Build a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Build a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals**: - **Silver**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Series**: - **Rebar**: Build a combination of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a combination of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Manganese Silicon**: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Build a bear spread combination of put options, a combination of selling short - volatility call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Build a bear spread combination of put options, a combination of selling short - volatility call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].