Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all experiencing this pattern [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has dropped to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - side seller strategy and a bull spread combination strategy of call options; for index options, in addition to the above two strategies, an arbitrage strategy of long synthetic futures and short futures can be constructed [3]. 3. Summary of Key Points by Category 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,867.92, down 0.55% with a trading volume of 764.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 145.3 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,112.09, down 1.10% with a trading volume of 1,008.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.4 billion yuan [4]. - Other important indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Option - related Data 3.2.1 Option - based ETF Market Overview - The closing prices of various ETFs, including the SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc., showed different degrees of decline, and their trading volumes and trading amounts also changed [5]. 3.2.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume and position PCR of different option varieties showed different trends, which can reflect the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [6]. 3.2.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8]. 3.2.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is analyzed, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc., and the differences between implied and historical volatilities are compared [11]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Sector Classification - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board, with specific option varieties corresponding to each sector [13]. 3.3.2 Option Strategies for Each Sector - For each sector, based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategies are proposed, including directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot long - side covered call strategies [14][15][16]. 3.4 Option Charts - Charts of various option varieties, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc., including price trends, volume and position distributions, and implied volatility trends, are provided to visually present the market conditions [17][31][45][63][79][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, they are trending upwards, and a neutral volatility strategy for sellers is recommended; for the black series, the market shows significant fluctuations, suitable for constructing a short - volatility combination strategy; for precious metals, they are rebounding, and a bull spread combination strategy is advisable [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different metal futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, copper (CU2601) has a latest price of 92,390, a decline of 180 (-0.19%), a trading volume of 18.34 million lots, and an open interest of 16.58 million lots with a decrease of 2.28 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.59 with a change of 0.21, and the open interest PCR is 0.80 with a change of - 0.09 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different options are analyzed. For example, the pressure point of copper is 94,000 and the support point is 90,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 16.98%, and the weighted implied volatility is 21.44% with a change of - 0.11 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy are advised [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. 3.3.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are proposed [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, a short - volatility strategy is recommended; for industrial silicon, a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are advised; for glass, a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [14][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios with a focus on sellers and using spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented, including details on their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 432, down 6 with a decline of 1.26%, trading volume of 3.30 million lots (down 0.33 million lots), and open interest of 3.18 million lots (up 0.37 million lots) [5]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) are used to analyze option - underlying market trends. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil is 0.72 (up 0.12), and the volume PCR is 0.79 (down 0.11), which helps describe the strength of the option - underlying market and potential turning points [6]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option - underlying assets are determined based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540, and the support point is 430 [7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 23.27%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.19% (down 3.17%) [8]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Crude Oil**: - Fundamental analysis shows stable and rising demand from US refineries, with little change in shale oil production during the recent price decline. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, and Libya's exports have recovered rapidly [9]. - Market analysis indicates a weak overall trend, with a sharp decline in October, followed by a rebound, and then a significant drop in December [9]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 540 and 430 respectively [9]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **LPG**: - Fundamental analysis shows a slight increase in warehouse receipts and port inventories, and the demand may weaken due to potential maintenance plans and current losses [11]. - Market analysis shows an overall downward and volatile trend, with a sharp drop in December [11]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is around the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4200 and 4000 respectively [11]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Methanol**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in inventory due to a decline in arrivals [11]. - Market analysis shows a weak overall trend, with a rebound and then a decline [11]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2300 and 2000 respectively [11]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decline in polyester load and an increase in port inventory [12]. - Market analysis shows a continuous weak and downward trend since August, with an accelerated decline in December [12]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is above the average and rising, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3800 and 3600 respectively [12]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **PVC**: - Fundamental analysis shows an increase in overall inventory [12]. - Market analysis shows a continuous downward trend since July, with a short - term rebound after an over - decline in December [12]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility has decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 6200 and 4100 respectively [12]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Rubber**: - Fundamental analysis shows normal demand for all - steel tires and weakening demand for semi - steel tires in the European market. There is a transformation from explicit to implicit inventory [13]. - Market analysis shows a weak and volatile trend [13]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is approaching the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 16000 and 15000 respectively [13]. - Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination for time - value and directional returns [13]. - **PTA**: - Fundamental analysis shows a low overall load and little change in domestic installations [13]. - Market analysis shows a weak trend with a slight rebound and then a decline [13]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4850 and 4600 respectively [13]. - Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination for time - value returns [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: - Fundamental analysis shows an increase in the average utilization rate of large - scale caustic soda enterprises [14]. - Market analysis shows a continuous downward trend since August [14]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is at a high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2320 and 2000 respectively [14]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in factory inventory [14]. - Market analysis shows a weak and volatile trend since mid - September [14]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 1300 and 1100 respectively [14]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread, a short - volatility combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Urea**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in enterprise inventory and an increase in port inventory [15]. - Market analysis shows a short - term weak trend, with a decline in December after a rebound [15]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is below the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1700 and 1640 respectively [15]. - Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products and soft commodities have their own specific trends. For example, sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is strongly consolidating, and corn and starch in the cereal category are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias. The strategy suggests constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For instance, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,098, with a decline of 51 and a drop rate of 1.23%, trading volume of 1.84 million hands (with a change of 0.59 million hands), and open interest of 5.60 million hands (with a change of 0.02 million hands) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different agricultural product options are presented. For soybean No.1, the volume PCR is 0.73 (with a change of - 0.01), and the open - interest PCR is 1.05 (with a change of - 0.02). These indicators can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,250, and the support level is 4,100. These levels are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options is provided. For soybean No.1, the at - the - money implied volatility is 12.33%, the weighted implied volatility is 15.05% (with a change of 1.33%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is 0.44 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation shows that the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in February 2026 has a weekly average increase, and the import cost has a weekly average decrease. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral call + put option selling portfolio strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average daily trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in major oil mills have increased. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral call + put option selling portfolio strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil price has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish call spread portfolio strategy, a bearish call + put option selling portfolio strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The price of peanuts in the circulation field has declined, and the market has a weak trend. The option strategy mainly focuses on a spot long - hedging strategy [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig**: The supply and demand of pigs have changed slightly. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish call + put option selling portfolio strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has decreased. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish call + put option selling portfolio strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The sales situation of apples in different regions varies. The option strategy includes constructing a bullish call + put option selling portfolio strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market price is stable, and the trading volume has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a wide - spread put option selling portfolio strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: ICE sugar futures are in a low - level consolidation. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish call + put option selling portfolio strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton production is expected to increase, and the market has a certain hedging pressure. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral call + put option selling portfolio strategy and a long collar strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.4 Cereal Options - **Corn**: The grain sales progress in major domestic production areas is advancing. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral call + put option selling portfolio strategy [13]. 3.6 Option Charts - For each agricultural product option (such as soybean No.1, soybean No.2, etc.), there are corresponding price trend charts, option volume and open - interest charts, option volume and open - interest PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and option pressure and support level charts, which visually display the market conditions and option factors of each product [16 - 342].

文字早评 2025/12/16 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、《福建省促进两岸标准共通条例》出台 明年 1 月 1 日起施行； 2、意法半导体：到 2027 年或向 SpaceX 交付 100 亿枚芯片； 3、我国首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型产品获得准入许可； 4、沐曦股份：公司股票将于 12 月 17 日在科创板上市。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.53%/-1.12%/-2.05%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.03%/-0.75%/-2.43%/-5.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-1.01%/-3.23%/-6.58%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.11%/-0.28%/-0.34%/-0.79%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL 主力合约收于 111.530 ，环比变化-0.84%；T 主力合约收于 107.870 ，环比变 化-0.11%；TF 主力合约收于 105.7 ...

【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3074 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.457%）。当日注册仓单 41900 吨, 环比减少 1197 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.7666 万手，环比增加 20609 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3233 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 4724 吨。主力合约持仓量为 122.4554 万手，环比增加 34067 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-12-16 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪偏弱，受出口政策扰动影响，成材价格承压回落。从基本面看，螺纹钢本周产量明 显下降，库存延续去化，供需结构相对平衡，整体表现中性偏稳；热轧卷板产量继续下滑，表观需求小幅 回落，库存去化难度加大，本周厂库已出现阶段性累积。 ...

张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色金属日报 2025-12-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 贵金属走强带动情绪面回暖，铜价冲高，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.16%至 11686 美元/吨，沪铜主力合 约收至 92480 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 25 至 165875 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 升贴水下滑。 国内电解铜社会库存小幅增加，保税区库存较上周四小幅减少，上期所日度仓单增加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export - price support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 0.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.09% decline, at 436.50 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels, diesel increased by 0.34 million barrels, fuel oil increased by 0.69 million barrels, naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels, and aviation kerosene increased by 0.74 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while those in Henan and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2074 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was 32 yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there is still pressure in the future. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shanxi decreased, while those in Shandong and Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1629 yuan/ton, with a basis of 61 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market is oscillating higher. With improved demand and expected seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation has improved. There is support from export policies and costs, and it's recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. As of December 12, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 95 yuan to 4315 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 increased by 80 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream operating rate was 48.9%, a 0.2% decline. Factory inventory increased by 1.8 tons, and social inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Strategy View**: The industry has low comprehensive profits, but high supply and weak domestic demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price rose. Upstream operating rate decreased, and Jiangsu port inventory increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It's possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract rose 71 yuan/ton to 6557 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventory increased, and trader inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract rose 125 yuan/ton to 6254 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. Upstream operating rate increased. Production enterprise and trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [24]. - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 24 yuan to 6810 yuan. PX CFR rose 2 dollars. China's PX load decreased slightly, and Asia's increased slightly. Some overseas devices restarted, and some were under maintenance. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. Import volume decreased year - on - year, and inventory increased month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4628 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 10 yuan. PTA load remained unchanged, and some devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly. The spot and futures processing fees decreased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to increase and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 24 yuan to 3651 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 43 yuan. The supply - side load decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance. The downstream load decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to improve but the inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [33].

农产品早报 2025-12-16 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收跌，市场继续交易美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期。周一国内豆粕现货小幅回落 10 元/ 吨，豆粕成交一般、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上升 0.64 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，同比仍处高位。 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，重点关注其 1 到 3 月天 气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显 ...

贵金属日报 2025-12-16 贵金属研究 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.18 %，报 975.52 元/克，沪银涨 0.71 %，报 14815.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4334.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 64.13 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.18%，美元指数报 98.29 ； 继周末特朗普更加青睐提名前任理事凯文沃什作为新任联储主席的表态传出后。昨日关于美联 储人选的消息再出变数，CNBC 报道称特朗普核心团队成员对于哈塞特的候选人资格提出反对， 理由是哈塞特与特朗普本人的关系过于密切。而在多位联储主席潜在候选人中，哈塞特最为鸽 派，因此他提名可能性的下降令贵金属价格短线承压。 联储超预期的鸽派表态令白银价格表现强势，但议息会议短期的利多出尽也意味着白银本身的 涨势已进入加速阶段：回顾历史上的行情走势，国际银价往往在宽松货币政策周期中表现强势。 本次议息会议的宽松表态在超预期的同时，也显示了明 ...