金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 理 | 从业资格号： F3074095 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | 金融期权 2025-12-17 （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率下降至历史均值偏下水平。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 金融期权策略早报概要： 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is not overly pessimistic. Fed's policy and domestic economic work conference set a positive tone. Different metals have different price trends based on supply - demand and other factors. For short - term trading, it is recommended to be cautious and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: US November non - farm data was better than expected, unemployment data was worse than expected, and the US dollar index declined. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.57% to $11,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,830 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 to 166,600 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 to 46,000 tons [3] - **策略观点**: Fed's bond - buying makes liquidity expectations marginally loose, and the domestic central economic work conference has a positive policy tone. The copper ore supply is tight, the refined copper supply is expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate is stable. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the SHFE copper main contract operating range of 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at $11,500 - 11,800/ton [4] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026. LME aluminum closed up 0.26% to $2,882/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,825 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 625,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 77,000 tons. Global aluminum inventories are at a relatively low level [6] - **策略观点**: Global aluminum inventories are decreasing, with support from overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies. Although there are some negative factors, if inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices may rise after adjustment. The SHFE aluminum main contract operating range is 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is at $2,850 - 2,910/ton [7] Lead - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 1.07% to 16,840 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 82,500 lots. LME lead 3S fell by $27 to $1,944/ton, and the total position was 180,500 lots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 80 tons to 23,700 tons [9] - **策略观点**: Lead ore inventory is basically stable, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, and that of secondary lead is rising. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is rising. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide range in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.74% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 207,500 lots. LME zinc 3S fell by $91 to $3,063/ton, and the total position was 236,000 lots. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 2,500 tons to 125,700 tons [11] - **策略观点**: The visible inventory of zinc ore is decreasing, and the TC of zinc concentrate is declining. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is decreasing, and the LME zinc inventory is slowly increasing. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains. The Fed's policy stimulus is limited before March 18 next year [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 320,620 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined in the off - season, and the high tin price suppresses downstream purchasing willingness. The national main social inventory of tin ingots increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons last week [13] - **策略观点**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, due to low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is at $39,000 - 43,000/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron weakened [16] - **策略观点**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. The price of refined nickel has dropped significantly, and the premium of refined nickel has reached the support level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is at $13,000 - 15,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 97,569 yuan, up 1.35%. The LC2605 contract closed at 100,600 yuan, down 0.46% [20] - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate market opened high and closed low. There are differences in the market regarding supply release and demand realization. The probability of a weak adjustment in the lithium price range is relatively high. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 2,606 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position decreased by 6,000 to 606,000 lots. The Shandong spot price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 2,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,400 tons to 246,200 tons [23] - **策略观点**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is复产. The alumina smelting capacity is in excess, and the inventory is increasing. However, the current price is close to most manufacturers' cost lines, and the probability of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,320 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,018 tons. The social inventory increased to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**: The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The raw material price has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is in a tight balance, and prices fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 29,000 lots, and the trading volume was 5,700 lots. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly to 48,800 tons [29] - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply - side disruptions, providing support for prices. However, demand is unstable, and there is交割 pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-17 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3081 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.227%）。当日注册仓单 57057 吨, 环比增加 15157 吨。主力合约持仓量为 161.5142 万手，环比减少 12524 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3246 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 13 元/吨（0.402%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak US non - farm employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range of the main Shanghai silver contract being 13918 - 15000 yuan/kilogram. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude as the silver price has risen significantly during the previous rumor of Hassett's nomination [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.14% to 974.22 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.24% to 14731.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4334.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 63.81 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.21 [2] - The key US economic data announced yesterday was comprehensively lower than expected, which supported the short - term prices of gold and silver as the market traded on the further easing of the Fed's subsequent monetary policy [2] - The number of new non - farm employment in the US in November was 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the new non - farm employment data in October recorded a decline of 105,000 [2] 3.2 Employment Data Analysis - From the non - farm employment data in October and November, the construction industry supported employment in commodity production, while healthcare was almost the only support for new employment in the service industry. Government employment was greatly disturbed by the government shutdown. The overall employment pattern was weak in terms of sub - items, which was in line with Powell's statement that the labor market was at risk [3] - In the construction industry, the number of new employment was 28,000 in November, a decrease of 1,000 in October, and an increase of 25,000 in September, making it the largest new item in commodity production in the past three months. In contrast, the manufacturing industry's employment performance was poor [3] - In service employment, the new employment in finance and information recorded negative values for two consecutive months. The employment in the travel and accommodation industry before Christmas still decreased by 12,000 in November. The healthcare industry could play a supporting role, with more than 50,000 new employees for three consecutive months and 65,000 in November [3] - Government employment was greatly disturbed. The government shutdown in October led to a decrease of 157,000 in employment, and there was a slight decrease of 4,000 in November [3] 3.3 Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was 4332.20 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 0.05%; the trading volume was 206,500 lots, an increase of 2.44%; the position was 432,900 lots, a decrease of 8.27%; the inventory was 1119 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The closing price of LBMA gold was 4324.20 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the active Shanghai gold contract was 971.42 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.19%; the trading volume was 388,800 lots, a decrease of 32.31%; the position was 343,000 lots, a decrease of 2.35%; the inventory was 91.30 tons, unchanged. The precipitation funds were 5.3304 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.52%. The closing price of AuT + D was 964.67 yuan, a decrease of 1.27%; the trading volume was 69.96 tons, a decrease of 10.06%; the position was 218.85 tons, an increase of 1.06% [6] - **Silver**: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was 63.80 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 0.52%; the position was 144,500 lots, a decrease of 5.71%; the inventory was 14116 tons, a decrease of 0.16%. The closing price of LBMA silver was 62.98 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 1.39%. The closing price of the active Shanghai silver contract was 14,666.00 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.86%; the trading volume was 2,697,600 lots, a decrease of 31.64%; the position was 755,900 lots, a decrease of 2.29%; the inventory was 890.72 tons, an increase of 3.84%. The precipitation funds were 2.9934 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.13%. The closing price of AgT + D was 14,649.00 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%; the trading volume was 1064.44 tons, an increase of 15.82%; the position was 3727.118 tons, a decrease of 2.45% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is some uncertainty in the market at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline, while being vigilant against redemption risks [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level; aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment; zinc may give back some gains; lead is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range; nickel is recommended to wait and see; tin is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range; alumina is recommended to wait and see; stainless steel is recommended to wait and see; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][13][16][17][19][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly; glass is expected to oscillate narrowly; soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, attention should be paid to the cost - push factors and the direction of the black sector; industrial silicon is expected to run weakly; and polysilicon should pay attention to the pressure at the 60,000 - yuan mark [31][34][36][37][40][42][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral short - term operation is recommended; for crude oil, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for methanol, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for urea, it is recommended to go long at low prices; for pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year; for PVC, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance; for PTA, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for p - xylene, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for polyethylene, it is recommended to shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies; and for polypropylene, it may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [52][54][55][57][59][62][64][66][68][70][72]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts; for eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts; for soybean and rapeseed meal, it is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended; for sugar, a short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended; and for cotton, it is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [75][77][80][82][85][87]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The top priority for next year is to expand domestic demand, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. Morgan Stanley predicts a copper supply gap of 260,000 tons in 2025 and 600,000 tons in 2026. The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2]. - **Strategy**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 16, the Ministry of Commerce imposed anti - dumping measures on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the mechanism for expanding domestic demand. The central bank conducted a net injection of 18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - demand repair and rebound, and vigilance against redemption risks [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.14% to 974.22 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.24% to 14,731 yuan/kg. The weak US non - farm payroll data supported the prices of gold and silver in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US non - farm data affected the dollar index, and copper prices oscillated. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium changed. The import loss of domestic copper spot narrowed [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract ranging from 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M from 11,500 - 11,800 dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026, and aluminum prices oscillated upward. Global aluminum inventory continued to decline [12]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract ranging from 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M from 2,850 - 2,910 dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell. Zinc ore inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The Lun zinc had a large - scale warehouse delivery on December 16 [14][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell. Lead ore inventory was basically flat, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices were weak. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices fell slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the Shanghai nickel price ranging from 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M from 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi faced problems such as low processing fees and insufficient raw material supply. The demand was affected by high prices, and inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract ranging from 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin from 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose. The market is divided on supply release and demand fulfillment [22]. - **Strategy**: Lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract ranging from 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The Guinea ore price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract AO2601 ranging from 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the market is in a tight - balance state and lacks a clear direction [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was low [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and demand pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed slightly. The rebar production decreased, and the inventory declined. The hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and the inventory removal was difficult. Export license management will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom and may gradually digest the policy impact [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. The iron water output decreased [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is balanced [38]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore and electricity price changes [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The production decline was limited, and the demand was weak. Polysilicon prices rose. The production is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is high [41][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the 60,000 - yuan mark [42][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. The inventory was low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views on the market [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Neutral short - term operation, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories increased [53]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and test the OPEC's export - price support willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. The port inventory decreased, but the import is expected to be high, and the olefin plant has maintenance expectations [55]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The demand improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Go long on urea at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low, and the inventory situation is different [58]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, the demand was weak, and the cost was stable [60]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was expected to improve, but the inventory continued to rise [63]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decline in the off - season [65]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The production load changed, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly [67]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell. The upstream production decreased, the inventory was high, and the downstream demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The upstream production increased, the inventory situation was complex, and the downstream demand oscillated seasonally [71]. - **Strategy**: It may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated slightly. Some regions had different trends in sales [74]. - **Strategy**: Short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The US soybean sales were slow, and the South American production was expected to be high. The domestic inventory was high [78][79]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the export was poor. The soybean planting progress in Brazil was good, and the US soybean oil inventory increased [81]. - **Strategy**: Short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. The production in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the domestic import profit window is open [83][84]. - **Strategy**: A short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices fluctuated. The downstream开机率 was stable, and the global cotton production was adjusted [86]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [2][3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [5][6] - For urea, the supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [8][9][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [11][12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13][14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [16][17] - For polyethylene, the valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22][23] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25][26] - For PTA, the processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [27][28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [30][31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.51%, at 430.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures such as high - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed inventory accumulation in various types of oil [2] - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract rose by 55 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 131 yuan [5] - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas declined, and the overall basis was reported at 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose by 1 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated and consolidated. The exchange's RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views from the long and short sides. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises had different changes, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [11] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose by 84 yuan to 4399 yuan, and the spot price and basis had corresponding changes. The overall operating rate and downstream operating rate declined, and the inventory increased [12] - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13][14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets had different changes, and indicators such as the basis, profit, and inventory also had corresponding changes [16] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polyethylene declined, and the spot price also declined. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate declined [19] - **Strategy View**: The valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polypropylene rose, and the spot price declined. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [22] - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, and inventory had corresponding changes [25] - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, inventory, and processing fee had corresponding changes [27] - **Strategy View**: The processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [28][29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose, and indicators such as the basis, supply - side load, downstream load, inventory, and profit had corresponding changes [30] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range as the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season, providing some support [2][3]. - For oils, the recent data is bearish. Although palm oil production has exceeded expectations this year, the situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [5][7]. - Regarding sugar, the estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. - In the case of cotton, the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [13][14]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. - As for pigs, the spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume but good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, domestic soybeans and soybean meal both destocked, but the inventory is still high year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine main producing areas are expected to have more rainfall, and the global soybeans' annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still high [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space needs greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Ship - shipping agency data indicates a 15.89% - 16.37% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of December. As of November 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory reached a seven - month high. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell due to poor palm oil export data and high - frequency production [5]. - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, and poor export data has suppressed the market. However, the situation of inventory accumulation may reverse. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices in various regions also declined. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, and Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 crushing season but may decrease in the 2026/27 season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports has decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy**: The estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices first rose and then fell. The spot price index increased, and the basis widened. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate remained flat week - on - week, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year. The global cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 year has been slightly adjusted [13]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. Supply was stable, market sales improved slightly, and demand increased. Short - term egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas showing a slight upward trend [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly. Most farmers may still be on the sidelines, and the price trend varies by region [20]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [21].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Metal Option Strategy Morning Report" dated December 17, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers [2] - For the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, construct a short - volatility combination strategy [2] - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread combination strategy [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - It shows the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different metal options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the option underlying are presented [5] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of different metal options [6] 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metals 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and also a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] 3.3.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy; for glass, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils fluctuating weakly, oils and agricultural by - products maintaining a sideways trend, soft commodity sugar fluctuating slightly, cotton consolidating strongly, and grains such as corn and starch consolidating narrowly on the long side. [2] - The strategy is to construct an options portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. [3] 3.2 Options Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open - interest change, trading - volume PCR, volume - PCR change, open - interest PCR, and open - interest - PCR change of various agricultural product options, which are used to describe the strength of the options underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. [4] 3.3 Options Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various agricultural product options are determined from the exercise prices of the maximum open - interest call and put options. [5] 3.4 Options Factor - Implied Volatility - The report presents the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted - implied - volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various agricultural product options. [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean Options**: - Fundamental analysis: Brazilian soybean planting is nearly complete, with the CNF premium rising and import cost falling. The soybean market has shown a weak upward trend with pressure above. [7] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is around the historical average; the open - interest PCR indicates a sideways market; the pressure level is 4200, and the support level is 4000. [7] - Strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option selling portfolio; build a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [7] - **Soybean Meal Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The average daily trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in major oil mills have increased, and the basis has risen. The market has shown an oversold rebound. [9] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is slightly below the historical average; the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market; the pressure level is 3100, and the support level is 2900. [9] - Strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option selling portfolio; build a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [9] - **Palm Oil Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The domestic palm oil market price has fallen, with light trading volume and slightly increased inventory. The Malaysian palm oil market is weak. [9] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is below the historical average; the open - interest PCR indicates a sideways market; the pressure level is 9000, and the support level is 8200. [9] - Strategy: Construct a bearish call spread; build a short - biased call + put option selling portfolio; build a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [9] - **Peanut Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The price of peanuts has fallen, and the shipping speed in production areas is slow. [10] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level; the open - interest PCR indicates pressure above; the pressure level is 9000, and the support level is 7700. [10] - Strategy: Build a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [10] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Live Pig Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased after the temperature drop. The market has been in a weak downward trend. [10] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is at the historical average; the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market; the pressure level is 13000, and the support level is 11000. [10] - Strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option selling portfolio; build a covered call strategy for spot. [10] - **Egg Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of laying hens has decreased, and the market has shown a weak upward trend with pressure. [11] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is at a high level; the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market; the pressure level is 3150, and the support level is 3100. [11] - Strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option selling portfolio. [11] - **Apple Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The sales in Shaanxi production areas are slow. The market has shown a continuous upward and high - level consolidation trend. [11] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is above the historical average; the open - interest PCR indicates support below; the pressure level is 10600, and the support level is 8500. [11] - Strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option selling portfolio; build a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [11] - **Jujube Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The jujube market price is stable, and the trading volume has increased in the off - season. The market has been in a weak downward trend. [12] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is above the historical average; the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market; the pressure level is 9800, and the support level is 9000. [12] - Strategy: Construct a short - biased wide - straddle option selling portfolio; build a covered call strategy for spot hedging. [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar Options**: - Fundamental analysis: ICE sugar futures have been fluctuating at a low level. The good rainfall in Brazil and the high sugar - production rate in India have suppressed the market. [12] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is at a low historical level; the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market; the pressure level is 5500, and the support level is 5400. [12] - Strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option selling portfolio; build a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [12] - **Cotton Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The national cotton production is expected to increase, and there is still some hedging pressure in the market. The market has shown a short - term upward trend that is blocked and then falls. [13] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is at a low level; the open - interest PCR indicates a weak market; the pressure level is 14000, and the support level is 13400. [13] - Strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option selling portfolio; build a long collar strategy for spot. [13] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn Options**: - Fundamental analysis: The grain - selling progress in major domestic production areas has advanced, but the terminal consumption expectation is not optimistic. The market has shown a rebound trend with support below. [13] - Options factor analysis: The implied volatility is at a low historical level; the open - interest PCR indicates a strengthening market; the pressure level is 2140, and the support level is 2000. [13] - Strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option selling portfolio. [13] - **Starch Options**: - No detailed analysis of fundamentals and options factors is provided. [314 - 328] - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided. [314 - 328] 3.5.5 Log Options - No detailed analysis of fundamentals, options factors, and strategies is provided. [329 - 347]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on energy and chemical options, covering energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and other related sectors [4]. - It provides strategies such as constructing option combinations mainly for sellers and spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [4]. Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, and others [5]. Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data for different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [6]. Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [7]. Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of each option variety are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and historical volatility differences [8]. Group 4: Option Strategies and Recommendations Crude Oil Options - Fundamental analysis shows that US refinery demand has stabilized and recovered, and OPEC's short - term supply is flat [9]. - The market trend has been weak recently. Option strategies include constructing bearish spread combinations, selling call + put option combinations, and long collar strategies for spot hedging [9]. LPG Options - The warehouse receipt volume has increased slightly, and the market shows a weakening trend. Strategies include bearish spread combinations, selling bearish call + put option combinations, and long collar strategies [10][11]. Methanol Options - Inventory has decreased, and the market is in a weak state. Strategies include bearish spread combinations, selling bearish call + put option combinations, and long collar strategies [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol Options - Polyester load has declined, and the market is weak. Strategies include bearish spread combinations, short - volatility strategies, and long collar strategies [12]. PVC Options - Inventory has increased, and the market is bearish. Strategies include bearish spread combinations and long collar strategies [12]. Rubber Options - Tire factory开工率 and demand have changed, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. Strategies include selling neutral call + put option combinations [13]. PTA Options - PTA load is low, and the market shows a slight decline after a rebound. Strategies include selling neutral call + put option combinations [13]. Caustic Soda Options - The capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the market is bearish. Strategies include bearish spread combinations and long collar strategies [14]. Soda Ash Options - Factory inventory has decreased, and the market is in a low - level weak shock state. Strategies include bearish spread combinations, short - volatility combinations, and long collar strategies [14]. Urea Options - Enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market is short - term weak. Strategies include selling neutral call + put option combinations and long collar strategies [15]. Group 5: Option Charts - The report includes price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts for various option varieties such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol [17][35][54].