1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - After continuous increases, the probability of market fluctuations is high. The A-share market has shown resilience recently. Although short - term volatility of the market may intensify after continuous index increases, the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11] - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, confirming the policy's support for the capital market [10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Politburo meeting aimed to enhance the capital market's attractiveness; overseas stock trading income is taxable; A - share margin trading balance is close to 2 trillion yuan; the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation [10] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; June consumption growth was 4.8%; industrial added - value growth was 6.8%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year; July exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% [10] - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: 10Y treasury and credit bond rates declined, and credit spreads narrowed. Liquidity became looser at the beginning of the month [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term IM discount; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3573.21, up 3.74%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 11009.77, up 5.20%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14] - **Futures Market**: All major index futures contracts showed increases, such as IF contracts with increases ranging from 3.47% to 4.17% [15] 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June consumption growth slowed to 4.8%; exports maintained resilience; investment growth declined to 2.8% [36][39][42] - **Corporate Earnings**: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth of non - financial A - share listed companies slightly declined but was still higher than Q3 2024, and the operating net cash flow improved [45] 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: 10Y treasury and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rates declined [48] - **Credit Environment**: In June 2025, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, with government bonds and corporate short - term loans being the main contributors [59] 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, 146.21 billion shares of new equity - biased funds were established, and the net margin purchase was 326.43 billion yuan [65][69] - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 50.67 billion yuan, and there was 1 IPO approval [72] 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.49, CSI 300 was 13.33, CSI 500 was 30.58, and CSI 1000 was 42.19 [76] - **P/B Ratio (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.27, CSI 300 was 1.41, CSI 500 was 2.06, and CSI 1000 was 2.34 [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lithium carbonate is gradually diverging from the trend of active varieties. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the expected adjustment of large - scale mineral supply has a significant impact on the market. In the past two days, under the influence of news from Jiangxi mines, bullish sentiment has dominated the market. Currently, most of the news from the mining end cannot be verified, and the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. Recently, the sentiment fluctuations brought by the news have been frequent, and the uncertainty of capital game is relatively high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry points according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Data**: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an increase of 11.5% in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [12] - **Supply**: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. The domestic lithium carbonate production returned to a high level. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12] - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [12] - **Inventory**: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [12] - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Trend**: On August 8, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 69,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.45% and an 11.5% increase in the past month. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 76,960 yuan, with a weekly increase of 11.2% [20] - **Market Features**: The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings increased [23] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,910 yuan [26] 3.3 Supply End - **Domestic Production**: On August 7, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate by SMM was 19,556 tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous week. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, and the operating rates of lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lakes rebounded. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a 40.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - **Production by Source**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a 73.8% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a 21.0% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons in July, with a 15.6% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons in July, with a 17.4% cumulative increase in the first seven months year - on - year [34][37] - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate was exported from Chile to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [40] 3.4 Demand End - **Consumption Structure**: The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The future growth point of lithium salt consumption still relies on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powder, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5% [44] - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 26.2% year - on - year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase from the previous year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase from the previous year [47][50] - **Battery Production and Installation**: In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase from the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% cumulative increase year - on - year. In June, the installation volume of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installation volume of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% cumulative increase year - on - year [53] - **Cathode Material Production**: In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. In August, the month - on - month increase in the production of cathode materials is expected to be slightly larger [56] 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: On August 7, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,418 tons, a 692 - ton (0.5%) increase from the previous week. With the recovery of supply, continuous inventory reduction has not occurred. On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 16,443 tons, and about 10,900 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered in August [63] - **Other Inventory Features**: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush [66] 3.6 Cost End - **Ore Price**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 8, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 750 - 820 US dollars per ton, a 5.37% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July, and the process of resource - end clearance was postponed [74] - **Lithium Concentrate Imports**: In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% cumulative decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, with the continuous fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and the stainless - steel market was also boosted, starting a small upward trend, reaching the high point after the unexpected tariff fermentation in early April. However, it is still in the traditional off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The effect of steel mill production cuts on improving the supply - demand contradiction is limited. [11][12] - Policy incentives have stimulated the speculative demand of traders, accelerating inventory digestion. Since downstream inventories are at a low level, market sentiment has improved, consumer enterprises' willingness to replenish inventories has increased, and steel mills' order acceptance in August is good. [11][12] - Looking forward to August, with the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the overall pessimism in the industrial chain has eased. The stocking demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" may be released in advance, and the upstream and downstream may form a virtuous cycle, with steel mills' profits expected to recover. Additionally, the 90 - day postponement of the effective time for the resumption of Sino - US tariffs may boost stainless - steel exports and relieve the pressure on domestic sales. [11][12] - Overall, the market still needs to further observe whether terminal consumption has truly recovered and whether the situation of "insufficient effective demand" can be improved. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Changes**: On August 8, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. [11][16] - **Supply**: In June, the estimated production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the production of 300 - series cold - rolled steel was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. [11][30] - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June alone, the commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4%. [11][40][43] - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1063 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel this week were 213,100 tons, 657,600 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 37,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.18%, and the unloading volume was 99,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.24%. [11][50][53] - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 106 yuan/nickel. [11][60] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: On August 8, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Thursday afternoon was 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton. [11][16] - **Market Quotations and Positions**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 250 yuan (+1) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 150 yuan (+51) over the main contract. The open interest on the futures market was 235,870 lots, a month - on - month increase of 15.68%. [20] - **Spread**: The spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was reported at - 50 (+0), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was reported at - 80 (+20). [23] 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. The crude steel production in July was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48%. [27] - **300 - Series Production**: In June, the estimated production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the production of 300 - series cold - rolled steel was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. [30] - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In June, the estimated monthly production of stainless steel in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons in June, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72%. [33] - **Export Situation**: In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year. [36] 3.4 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June alone, the commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. [40] - **Home Appliances and Fuel Processing**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4%. [43] - **Other Industries**: In June, the production of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. The automobile sales volume in June was 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. [46] 3.5 Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1063 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. [50] - **Series Inventory and Port - Related Quantities**: This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 213,100 tons, 657,600 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 37,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.18%, and the unloading volume was 99,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.24%. [53] 3.6 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In June, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. [57] - **Ferronickel**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 106 yuan/nickel. [60] - **Chromium - Related**: This week, the price of chrome ore was quoted at 55 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 7,900 yuan/50 - base tons, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons from last week. In June, the production of high - carbon ferrochrome was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53%. [63] - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 687 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is - 5%. [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that going long on rubber is better than going short in the medium term [11][14]. Core Viewpoints - Mid - term view: The rubber price is more favorable for going long than short. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016, and the rubber price is in the bottom - building stage due to a significant decline, which has curbed supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11][13]. - Short - term view: The overall rise and fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies drive the rubber price. Although the rubber price dropped significantly on August 2, 2025, the outlook for the rubber price is not pessimistic [15]. - Market logic: Bulls focus on the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements in the second half of the year. Bears base their view on the current weak demand and the expected negative impact of the US tariff policy on demand [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025, rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - positive factor. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that the rubber price had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pull - back. On August 1, 2025, the rubber price gave back most of its gains [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, and conduct repeated band operations [15]. - Market information: The full - steel tire operating rate of tire factories is 61% (-0.08%), with high full - steel tire inventory. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.35 (-0.73) million tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting a decrease and others an increase. There is a market expectation of a small - scale rubber storage plan [15]. 2. Cost End - Thailand: The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [55]. - China: The cost of Hainan full - latex is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and vice versa [55]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - Seasonal pattern: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year [28]. - Market demand: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [33]. - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [39][44][51]. 4. Profit and Ratio - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The movement of black commodities and rubber shows a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 5. Demand End - Tire operating rate: The full - steel tire operating rate is 61% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate data shows no special values [58][60]. - Mid - stream demand: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future [65][68]. 6. Supply End - Supply data: In May 2025, the rubber output was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The rubber export was 711.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.98% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24% [106][107]. - Supply situation: The supply data of major rubber - producing countries is generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The rubber import data has limited availability for analysis due to incomplete updates after the 2020 pandemic [72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, methanol prices rose and then fell. Affected by China's anti - involution policy, prices increased significantly in the short term, and option volatility also soared. After the sentiment of related commodities reached its peak, prices began to decline, and methanol returned to its weak fundamental situation, with prices dropping back to the pre - start level. Overall, the upside potential of prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation [12]. - The supply side shows that domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have gradually recovered to a high level, and subsequent imports will gradually increase. Port olefin devices have stopped, and the load has declined from a high level [12]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of traditional demand has decreased during the off - season, and the overall profit level is at a low level [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline significantly due to improved expectations and weakening reality. Coal prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits remain at a relatively high level. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved, but the absolute level is still not high. The price ratio of methanol to related varieties is at a medium - high level, and the valuation of methanol is still on the high side [12]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory continued to rise in July due to increased imports and stopped port devices. Inland inventory has been maintained at a year - on - year low level due to maintenance and olefin procurement [12]. - The market logic is that as the sentiment of the overall commodity market cools down, methanol returns to its own fundamentals. The weak downstream demand combined with the relatively high valuation of methanol itself puts downward pressure on prices. Domestic production is likely to increase marginally in the future, and port inventory is accumulating faster due to increased import unloading speed and stopped port MTO devices. Inland areas are under less pressure due to olefin procurement. Currently, the valuation of methanol is still high, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are under pressure. Unilateral prices are greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment, and methanol can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector. The strategy is to pay attention to short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, methanol prices first rose and then fell. Affected by policies, prices increased sharply in the short term, and option volatility also increased. After the peak of commodity sentiment, prices returned to the weak fundamental level [12]. - **Supply**: Domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have recovered to a high level, and imports will increase [12]. - **Demand**: Traditional demand operating rates are low during the off - season, and overall profits are low [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The 9 - 1 spread has declined significantly. Coal prices have rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits are high. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved but are still not high. Methanol valuation is relatively high [12]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory has increased, while inland inventory is at a low level [12]. - **Market Logic**: As commodity sentiment cools, methanol returns to its fundamentals. Weak demand and high valuation put pressure on prices. Future supply is likely to increase, and port inventory is accumulating faster [12]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: The reality is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There has been a decline in volume and open interest, accompanied by price drops [24]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a year - on - year high [36]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to increased arrivals and stopped downstream port devices, port inventory is accumulating faster [39]. - **Regional Inventory**: Inland inventory is at a year - on - year low level due to olefin procurement [42]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: Newly added capacity in 2025 is 7.45 million tons, mainly in the northwest region [50]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Domestic production and operating rates have shown certain trends, and overseas operating rates have recovered to a high level [52][54]. - **Imports**: Import volume and its sources are presented, and the arrival volume has increased [59][70]. - **International Price Difference**: The import profit and price differences between China and other regions are analyzed [74]. - **Regional Price Difference**: Port prices have weakened, while inland prices are relatively strong [77]. - **Domestic Freight**: The freight rates of methanol transportation are shown [84]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: Consumption and inventory data are presented [88]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have rebounded [91]. - **PP Production Profits**: The production profits of different PP production processes are analyzed [94]. - **MTO - Related Spreads**: Various spreads related to MTO are presented [97]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Downstream raw material inventory is at a high level [111]. - **Related Variety Price Ratio**: The valuation of methanol is relatively high compared to related varieties [114]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of methanol options are presented [118]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis are provided [124][126].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering August, the estimated production of refined copper in China is expected to decline, and imports are also expected to increase after the implementation of US copper tariffs. However, the tight supply of scrap copper is expected to alleviate the surplus to some extent. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and inventories face continued pressure to increase. At the macro - level, the marginal impact of the implementation of US counter - tariffs is not significant. With the expectation of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is acceptable. The strong performance of the domestic equity market, combined with the expectation of anti - involution policies, also provides support on the sentiment side. Overall, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US tariffs puts pressure on copper prices, while the expectations of a Fed rate cut and anti - involution policies still support prices, and copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Monthly Key Points Summary - **Supply**: In the first half of the year, the production of major overseas copper mining enterprises was lower than expected, and the supply of copper concentrates remained tight. Domestic refined copper production continued to grow, but it is expected to decline starting from August [9]. - **Demand**: In July, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow at a relatively high rate. In August, with the base increasing, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline. The manufacturing prosperity overseas is differentiated, and short - term demand expectations are neutral [9]. - **Imports and Exports**: In July, the import loss of SHFE copper narrowed, and the imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased. It is estimated that the import volume will further increase in August [9]. - **Inventory**: In July, the inventory of SHFE decreased, while the inventories of LME, COMEX, and the bonded area increased. It is estimated that there will be some inventory accumulation pressure both at home and abroad in August [9]. - **Summary**: Copper prices may trade in a range. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper is 76,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is 9,400 - 9,900 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long on volatility after sideways movement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In July, copper prices oscillated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 2.29%, and the LME 3M copper contract fell 2.74%. Before the implementation of US copper tariffs and counter - tariffs, the market weakened. The US copper tariffs not meeting expectations caused US copper to soar and then plummet, and SHFE copper and LME copper traded weakly. The US dollar index rose 3.34%, and the offshore RMB depreciated 0.75% [17]. - **Spreads between Markets**: In July, there were more deliveries of LME copper, the spot supply was loose, and the monthly spread weakened. SHFE copper outperformed LME copper. Currently, the spot import of SHFE copper only incurs a small loss. The US 232 investigation on copper was finalized, and on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper products. The tariff exceeding expectations caused US copper to rise significantly relative to LME copper, but the market only priced in about 30% of the tariff at most. On July 30, the US disclosed the details of copper product tariffs, which were significantly lower than expected. Only semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivative products were included, and cathode copper was not taxed. US copper fell significantly relative to LME copper, and the US copper arbitrage window was basically closed [20]. - **Inventory & Basis**: As of early August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 523,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons from the end of June. The total inventory has moved out of the relatively low level, but there are still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounts for a high proportion, about 45%). The copper inventory in China rebounded this month, with the exchange inventory at about 73,000 tons and the off - exchange social inventory at about 60,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased month - on - month, with an absolute amount of about 75,000 tons. LME copper inventory increased and rebounded to over 140,000 tons in early August, and the inventory has continued to increase recently. The total inventory of COMEX copper is about 234,000 tons. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed the Cash/3M from a premium to a discount, with a discount of over 60 US dollars/ton in early August. With no significant increase in Chinese imports and a tight supply of scrap copper, the spot remained tight, and the basis was relatively firm, reported at over 100 yuan/ton in early August [23][26]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of July, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 13.1%. However, long positions were reduced as the tariff implementation time approached, and the bullish sentiment of funds decreased marginally. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased, and the market was generally cautious before and after the tariff implementation. In August, the impact on market sentiment mainly comes from the Fed's monetary policy expectations, inventory changes, and trade situations [29]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mines**: The total output of 15 large and medium - sized copper mining enterprises was about 3.003 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, with a continued low growth rate. The output increase mainly came from BHP, Zijin Mining, MMG, Vale, CMOC, and Rio Tinto, while the decrease mainly came from Freeport, Anglo American, Teck Resources, and First Quantum Minerals. Rio Tinto's production guidance was raised this quarter, while Glencore and Teck Resources' production guidance was lowered. In June, the copper mine output in Chile decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in the output of the Escondida copper mine. Recently, the El Teniente mine under the state - owned Codelco in Chile had an accident and stopped production, resulting in significant disturbances in the mine - end supply [34]. - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In July, the domestic production of refined copper increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month as the smelter operating rate remained high. In August, there are still few maintenance activities at copper smelters, but due to the tight supply of raw materials, the output is expected to decline slightly. There will be more maintenance of domestic copper smelters in September, and the output is expected to decline further [43]. - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In July, the average spread between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,220 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises oscillated, and the marginal substitution of refined copper changed little. In August, the supply of scrap copper remained tight, the refined - scrap spread remained low, and the substitution of electrolytic copper from the consumption side is expected to decrease [46]. - **Demand - China**: Assuming exports were flat or slightly increased in July, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.4%. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to July was about 9.395 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China declined in July, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal weakening of manufacturing prosperity [49]. - **Demand - Overseas**: In July, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. The eurozone and India had relatively strong prosperity, while the US and Japan had relatively weak prosperity. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month in May 2025 but increased year - on - year, with a consumption growth of about 3.6% from January to May [67]. 4. Macro Analysis - In July, the US unemployment rate rose, and the non - farm data was below expectations. The inflation data in the US stabilized and rose slightly in June. Despite the strong resilience of US economic data, under political pressure, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 BP with a probability of over 90% at the September FOMC meeting [71]. - In July, the US dollar index rebounded and is currently in a stage of oscillating and rebounding. The 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is weak, providing a slightly bearish indication for copper prices [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, sentiment continues to significantly impact the market. Short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can choose appropriate times for hedging. The markets are currently in a state of disorderly and wide - range fluctuations. Although the current high - frequency data shows some resilience in demand, there is a risk of marginal weakening of demand in the future for both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state introduces relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week and 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closes at 6064 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week and 440 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 76 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.25%, at a neutral historical level. The calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 246 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 226 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 446 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6066 yuan/ton, Ningxia 6026 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6346 yuan/ton. Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output is 19.58 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 4.80% lower than the same period last year. In July 2025, the output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July was 32.51 tons or 5.39% lower than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 221.18 tons, up 10.12 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.39% lower than the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 54.85 tons, down 0.75 tons from last week, still at a high level [14] - Strategy: Due to the current wide - range and irregular market fluctuations, investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can still participate at appropriate times [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week and 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 (SM509) closes at 6064 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week and 440 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 76 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.25%, at a neutral historical level [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 246 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton from last week and down 15 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is - 226 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton from last week and up 122 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Guangxi's is - 446 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from last week and up 114 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [25] - Cost: As of August 7, 2025, the main production area's electricity price remains stable. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia (excluding depreciation) is 6066 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 335 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 6026 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 228 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Guangxi's is 6346 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week and up 286 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [30] - Manganese ore import: In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1446 tons, a cumulative increase of 48.52 tons or 3.47% [33] - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 2, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 438.5 tons, down 11 tons from the previous period [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output is 19.58 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 4.80% lower than the same period last year. In July 2025, the output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July was 32.51 tons or 5.39% lower than the same period last year [44] - Demand: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.52 tons, up 0.15 tons from last week. The weekly output of rebar is 221.18 tons, up 10.12 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.39% lower than the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. In June 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and down 842 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber was 509 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 772 tons or 1.49% [61] 3.5 Inventory - Explicit inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 54.85 tons, down 0.75 tons from last week, still at a high level. Among them, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises under Steel Union's caliber is 16.15 tons, down 0.25 tons from the previous period [69][72] - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days from the previous month, and the steel mill inventory available days decreased significantly, at a historical low [75] 3.6 Graphical Trend - In July, the manganese silicon futures price continued the oscillating rebound trend since June. After the middle of the month, the price accelerated upwards and then entered a disorderly wide - range oscillation stage, with a monthly amplitude of 848 yuan/ton or 15.18% and a final increase of 330 yuan/ton or 5.84%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. The daily K - line is loose and disorderly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the support around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton, and the resistance around the previous high of 6436 yuan/ton (for the weighted index). It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [80] Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: The daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 47.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.92 tons or 5.80%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.25 tons or 10.11%. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.90 tons, down 0.17 tons from the previous period, and the inventory level remains at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 650 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 contract (SF509) closes at 5834 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton from last week and up 564 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 166 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.77%, at a relatively high historical level. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 43 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week and up 397 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 637 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas remains basically stable. Steel Union's weekly ferrosilicon output is 10.91 tons, up 0.47 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 0.17% higher than the same period last year. In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output is 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July is 0.56 tons or 0.18% lower than the same period last year [94] - Strategy: Due to the wide - range and irregular market fluctuations, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. In the future, ferrosilicon and the entire black sector may face a marginal weakening of demand. Pay attention to changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state introduces relevant demand - supporting measures [95] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 650 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures主力 contract (SF509) closes at 5834 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan/ton from last week and up 564 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the basis is 166 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.77%, at a relatively high historical level [100] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and up 227 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 43 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week and up 397 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and up 637 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [105] - Cost: As of August 7, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remains stable. The calculated production cost in the main production areas remains basically stable. The cost in Inner Mongolia is 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and up 123 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Ningxia's is 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and down 97 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; Qinghai's is 5265 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week and down 337 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [111] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, Steel Union's weekly ferrosilicon output is 10.91 tons, up 0.47 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 0.17% higher than the same period last year. In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output is 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to July is 0.56 tons or 0.18% lower than the same period last year [116] - Demand: As of August 7, 2025, the daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons from last week, and the cumulative weekly output is about 3.12% higher than the same period last year. In June 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and down 842 tons from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 509 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 772 tons or 1.49%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 47.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.92 tons or 5.80%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.25 tons or 10.11% [125] 3.5 Inventory - Explicit inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.90 tons, down 0.17 tons from the previous period, and the inventory level remains at a high level in the same period [139] - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon in steel mills is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days from the previous month, and the steel mill raw material inventory decreased significantly, at a historical low [142] 3.6 Graphical Trend - In July, the ferrosilicon futures price continued the oscillating rebound trend since June. After the middle of the month, the price accelerated upwards and then entered a disorderly wide - range oscillation stage, with a monthly amplitude of 1112 yuan/ton or 21.27% and a final increase of 420 yuan/ton or 7.85%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. The daily K - line is loose and disorderly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the support around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton, and the resistance around the previous high of 6340 yuan/ton (for the weighted index). It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times [148]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The strong pattern of oils is difficult to change in the short - term due to factors such as the low inventory of oils in the same period over the years, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand, and the potential insufficiency of palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia. However, the upside space is limited by factors like the annual - level oil production increase expectation, high near - term palm oil production, and uncertain RVO rules. Palm oil is expected to be range - bound, with a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, rapeseed oil fluctuated, while palm oil and soybean oil rose. The net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils oscillated near historical highs. Malaysian palm oil may have slightly increased its inventory in July due to rising production and declining exports. Ex - market rapeseed prices entered a range - bound pattern after a high - level correction. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened [11]. - **International Oils**: The USDA July report estimated an increase of about 1.5 million tons in US industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season. Canadian rapeseed farmers' shipments decreased, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade pressured rapeseed prices. India may start a replenishment process, supporting palm oil export demand [11]. - **Domestic Oils**: In July, soybean oil had good sales, while palm oil sales were weak. The total domestic oil inventory was about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, palm oil export willingness will increase, and rapeseed oil will gradually reduce its inventory [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. No specific arbitrage strategy is recommended [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of different contracts and the seasonal basis, which helps analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][24][27] 3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [30][31][32][33] - **Palm - growing Region Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - growing regions, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [35][37] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [43] - **Individual Oil Inventory and Profit**: Charts present the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the spot average crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [46][48][49][51] 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [54] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: Charts display the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [57] 6. Demand Side - **Oils Transaction**: Charts show the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [60] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts present the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, zinc prices fluctuated upward. However, the domestic zinc industry data is weak, with zinc ore inventories increasing and downstream consumption weakening. Overseas, the market has lowered expectations for subsequent monetary easing, and LME zinc inventories have decreased, but the contango has shown a downward trend. Domestic black commodity sentiment has also declined. Overall, the previous factors supporting zinc prices have weakened, and the risk of a subsequent decline in zinc prices has increased [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: As of August 7, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.03% at 22,585 yuan/ton, with total positions decreasing by 59,000 to 209,700 lots. LME zinc 3S closed up 2.66% at $2,815.5/ton, with total positions decreasing by 15,500 to 192,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,510 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons, and SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $79/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 263,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 56.77%, 48.24%, and 56.13% respectively [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: Zinc ore inventories continued to accumulate, and TC increased rapidly. SMM estimated that domestic refined zinc production in August 2025 would be 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons. Downstream operating rates declined significantly last week, and short - term zinc consumption weakened. The risk of a decline in zinc prices is expected to rise [11]. 2. Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.68% and a month - on - month increase of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.0% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.5% [27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% and a month - on - month increase of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [33]. - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.77%, with raw material inventories of 13,000 tons and finished product inventories of 344,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloys was 48.24%, with raw material inventories of 9,000 tons and finished product inventories of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.13%, with raw material inventories of 2,000 tons and finished product inventories of 6,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.7% [42]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [56]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons. SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long positions of the top 20 in SHFE zinc declined rapidly. The net long positions of investment funds in LME zinc increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bearish [70].