Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - LNG prices are oscillating downward, while US gas prices are high. The core variable for US gas prices is the weather, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5 dollars/MMBTU and non - heating season prices in 2026 expected to range from 3.0 - 3.5 dollars/MMBTU. LNG prices are still supported by uncertain winter temperatures, with TTF expected to weakly oscillate around 10 dollars/MMBTU in January and showing a long - term downward trend [5][6]. - Recommended strategies include staying on the sidelines for single - side trading, conducting TTF positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling TTF call options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Foreword Summary a. Market Review - European TTF futures' December contract settled at 29.18 euros/MWh, breaking below 30 euros/MWh for the first time since May last year. Northeast Asian JKM also declined, reaching around 10.6 dollars/MMBTU in February. US HH futures rose significantly, with the HH2512 contract settling at 4.424 dollars/MMBTU. In November, global LNG demand was weak, and JKM and TTF oscillated downward throughout the month. US production continued to grow, with inventories at a 5 - year high, and entered the de - stocking cycle early due to cold weather in early November. Demand increased slightly, and liquefaction demand rose further in the first half of the month and then stabilized, with strong bullish sentiment [5][11]. b. Market Outlook - In the US, production will remain high, and export demand is at a high level and expected to stay high until new capacity comes online in Q1 2026, further boosting export demand. The core variable is the weather. Assuming normal winter temperatures in the US, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5 dollars/MMBTU, and non - heating season prices in 2026 are expected to range from 3.0 - 3.5 dollars/MMBTU. For LNG, due to uncertain winter temperatures, prices still have some support. Currently, institutions expect European and Asian temperatures to be close to historical averages. In the short term, TTF in January is expected to weakly oscillate around 10 dollars/MMBTU, with a long - term downward trend. If the winter is warm, prices may drop to 8 dollars/MMBTU in winter; if it is cold, the upside for prices is limited, and the near - end is stronger than the far - end [6]. c. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Conduct TTF positive spreads. - Options: Sell TTF call options [7] 2. Fundamental Situation a. Market Review - Similar to the market review in the foreword, European TTF, Northeast Asian JKM, and US HH futures had different price trends in November. Global LNG prices declined, and the low inventory level in Europe did not cause supply concerns due to high inventories in China, Japan, and South Korea, weak demand in Northeast Asia, and strong US LNG supply. US production increased, inventories were at a 5 - year high, domestic demand rose slightly, and liquefaction demand showed a certain trend [11]. b. US Market Fundamental - As of the week ending November 21, the net withdrawal of US natural gas inventories was 11 billion cubic feet, compared with 2 billion cubic feet in the same period last year. The total natural gas inventory was 3935 billion cubic feet, 160 billion cubic feet (+4.2%) higher than the five - year average and 32 billion cubic feet (+1%) lower than last year. - Supply: Bloomberg showed that the average daily dry natural gas production in the US in November was about 111.3 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 2.6 billion cubic feet/day (+2.4%) from the previous month and 8.9 billion cubic feet/day (+8.7%) year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the average daily dry gas production was about 107.7 billion cubic feet/day, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 billion cubic feet/day (+5.1%). - Demand: In November, the average daily domestic consumption of natural gas in the US was about 83.8 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 4.3 billion cubic feet/day (+5.4%) compared with last year. From January to November 2025, the average daily domestic consumption was 80.8 billion cubic feet/day, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 billion cubic feet/day (+2.7%). Among them, the average daily demand for LNG export project liquefaction in November was 17.5 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 4.3 billion cubic feet/day (+32.6%) year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the average daily liquefaction demand was 15.2 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 2.7 billion cubic feet/day (+22%) compared with the same period last year. The Plaquemines project reached 4 billion cubic feet/day in late November. Industrial consumption increased by 18% year - on - year in November, power generation consumption decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and residential and commercial consumption increased by 11.5% year - on - year [14][15]. c. International LNG Market Fundamental - In November, Europe's natural gas inventory decreased at a normal pace. As of November 26, European natural gas inventory was about 882 TWH, with an inventory level of 77.2%, much lower than 87% in 2024 and 88% of the five - year average. In 2025, Europe's supply structure changed significantly, with a large increase in LNG imports, especially from the US. In November, Europe's natural gas imports were about 965 million cubic meters/day, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and LNG imports accounted for 44%, compared with only 31.2% in the same period last year. - From January to September 2025, China's domestic natural gas production was 194.7 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Imports were 130 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. Among them, pipeline gas imports were 63.589 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and LNG imports were 47.44 million tons (about 66.4 billion cubic meters), a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%. Apparent consumption was 319.5 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of only 0.7%. Inventories in China, Japan, and South Korea were high, and Northeast Asian demand was dragged down by high inventories and sluggish industrial activities. - BNEF predicted that global LNG supply in December would reach 41.4 million tons, while demand would be 40.1 million tons. The growth in supply this year mainly came from increased US exports. In December, supply increased again due to Qatar's production recovery and the early start of new capacity in Canada. On the demand side, as temperatures dropped, Northeast Asian demand would start to recover. It was expected that the demand in China and South Korea would increase significantly compared with the low level in 2025, while Japan's demand growth was expected to be moderate due to the expected warm weather [25][26]. d. Future Outlook - US market: Production will remain high, and export demand will stay high until new capacity comes online in Q1 2026. The core variable is on the demand side. EIA predicts a 2.6% increase in US electricity demand in 2026, and gas - fired power demand may continue to decline in 2026 due to high HH prices. Industrial demand is expected to remain strong, and residential and commercial demand fluctuates with temperature. Currently, EIA and NOAA both expect a relatively warm winter, and EIA predicts a 5% year - on - year decrease in winter demand from 2025 - 2026. The inventory level after winter will determine the US gas price center in the non - heating season next year. Assuming normal winter temperatures in the US, non - heating season prices in 2026 are expected to range from 3.0 - 3.5 dollars/MMBTU. If it is warm, prices may drop below 3.0 dollars/MMBTU; if it is a cold winter, prices may reach 4.0 dollars/MMBTU or higher. - International LNG market: In the short term, if the December temperature in Europe and Asia is close to the historical average as expected, prices will decline further, and the far - end will face greater downward pressure. If December is warm and the whole winter is expected to be warm, the market situation from winter 2023 - 2024 may repeat, with prices dropping from December until reaching around 8 dollars/MMBTU at the end of winter. If it is cold, prices can get some support, but due to the expected growth in future LNG supply, the upside for prices is limited. Therefore, considering the high certainty of far - end price decline and the influence of weather factors on the near - end, one can consider shorting the spread between the near - end and far - end of TTF. In the long term, China's domestic production will continue to grow, and Russian pipeline gas is being transported above the contract volume, while industrial demand is unlikely to recover. Next year, more Chinese buyers will start to execute long - term contracts, and the volume of executed long - term contracts far exceeds LNG import demand, so buyers need lower prices to trigger purchasing. New demand growth in Asia will mainly come from emerging countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with an expected increase of 10.77 million tons in 2026 according to ICIS. In Europe, due to weak Asian demand and increasing US exports, low inventories may no longer be a concern, and long - term LNG prices face significant upward pressure. One can short JKM or TTF when prices rise due to sudden factors and consider long - term rolling sales of TTF call options [44][45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of eggs is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend, while the February and March contracts can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5][32] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated weakly. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.7 - 2.8 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 2.9 - 3.09 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The laying hens in the supply side were still at a high level but had eased compared to before. November was the off - season for egg consumption, so the overall egg price performance was average [4] 1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. In December, the demand for eggs will enter the peak season. Affected by seasonality, egg prices may rebound, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract has the expectation of Spring Festival stocking, but it has already given a certain premium, so it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The January contract will be range - bound, and the February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices. Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 3 - 3.2 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract fluctuated within a range. The demand in November was average, and the spot price changed little. On the one hand, the demand was less than in previous years; on the other hand, the current laying hen inventory was still at a high level, and the market was worried about future egg prices, so the futures price fluctuated weakly [10] 2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side**: In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. In November, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (a low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.29% (a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 15.95% (a medium - high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in November was about 91.94%, remaining stable and is expected to maintain the current level as the weather gets colder. In October, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan/feather, the same as last month. Recently, due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the breeding profit was in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased. From November 21st, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.21 million, a 3.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 492 days, one day less than the previous week [11][13] - **Demand Side**: The demand in November was average, and the seasonal peak season was less prosperous than in previous years. Although the recent demand has recovered, it is still at a medium - low level in the same period over the years. As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7472 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week. From January to October 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 44121.69 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In October, the absolute value of catering revenue was 51.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [20] - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [20] - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In November, the corn price was 2309 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3076 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2539 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.79 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. As of November 21st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [22] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On November 24th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 126.65. The vegetable price has risen significantly recently but is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of November 24th, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.04 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [27] 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to strengthen, but since it has already given a certain premium, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The February and March contracts are post - Spring Festival contracts. If the supply side pressure does not improve significantly and the demand is average, short - selling at high prices can be considered [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November 2025, peanut imports remained low, prices in Northeast and Henan rose slightly, and the price difference between general peanuts and oil - grade peanuts widened. The downstream demand was still weak, but the profit of peanut oil mills continued to increase. Affected by the warehouse - receipt game, the 01 peanut contract on the futures market rebounded significantly [3]. - In December, peanuts will be listed successively. Farmers in the Northeast are still reluctant to sell, so the price will remain strong. The supply of oil - grade peanuts is sufficient, and oil mills will continue to lower the purchase price. The price difference between oil - grade and general peanuts will remain large. The 01 peanut contract has limited upside space above 8,200 yuan/ton [4]. - The new - season peanut production is higher than last year, with lower planting costs. The supply of oil - grade peanuts is abundant, and the profit of oil mills is at a new high this year. It is expected that oil mills will increase their purchases in December, and the price of oil - grade peanuts will fluctuate at the bottom [51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Peanut Situation and Market Review - Global peanut production is increasing, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. In 2025, the global peanut production is expected to be 51.78 million tons according to FAS data, and 51.74 million tons according to the latest USDA data. China's production is about 19 million tons, India's is 7.35 million tons, etc. In 2024, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.28 million tons, accounting for 37.6%, and the import volume was 4.26 million tons, accounting for 9.4%. Due to lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, the import volume is much lower than last year [7]. 3.2 Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Price Increase in Henan and Northeast Peanuts - Due to the strong reluctance of traders and farmers in the Northeast to sell, the spot price of Northeast peanuts has risen, driving up the price in Henan. In December, a large number of peanuts will be listed, but due to the low current price and the low purchase price of oil mills, the downward space for peanut prices is limited [14]. 3.2.2 Significantly Reduced Imported Peanuts Year - on - Year, with Relatively High Imported Peanut Prices - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of peanut kernels was 198,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69%. The cumulative export of peanut kernels was 129,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The cumulative import of peanut oil from January to October 2025 was 334,000 tons, 53% higher than last year. It is expected that the peanut import volume in December will still be low, and the peanut oil import in November will remain stable [22]. 3.2.3 Good Profits of Peanut Oil Mills, but Low Peanut Inventory in Mills - As of November 21, the operating rate of peanut oil mills was 16.61%, and the peanut inventory was 54,000 tons, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year. As of November 28, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills was 376 yuan/ton. In December, the supply of oil - grade peanuts will be sufficient, the price will remain low, the operating rate of oil mills will increase, and the peanut inventory will also increase [31]. - In November, the price of peanut oil was relatively weak, and the inventory continued to rise. The price of peanut meal remained stable. It is expected that the peanut oil inventory will continue to rise in December, and the price will remain stable, while the peanut meal price will also be relatively stable [37]. 3.2.4 Decreased New - Season Peanut Planting Costs, Higher Production than Last Year - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year. Although there was a partial reduction in production in Henan and other places, the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. The planting cost excluding land rent was generally between 600 - 800 yuan/ton, and the seed cost decreased slightly. The price difference between oil - grade and general peanuts widened [48]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Outlook**: In December, a large number of peanuts will be listed, and oil mills will increase their purchases. The price of oil - grade peanuts will fluctuate at the bottom, and the price difference between oil - grade and general peanuts will remain high. The 01 peanut contract has limited upside space above 8,200 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan/ton, while the 05 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [51]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Short the 01 and 03 peanut contracts on rallies [6][53]. - **Arbitrage**: Try a reverse spread on the 1 - 5 peanut contracts with a light position [6][53]. - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - C - 8300 option when the peanut futures price rallies [6][53].

| | | | 利多显性化，市场维持高位震荡 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 铜市场综述 | | 3 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 3 | | 【市场展望】 | | 3 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 3 | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 4 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 4 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 4 | | 第二部分 | 降息不确定性增加 | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 铜矿扰动增加，供应紧张的情况难以缓解 8 | | 一、 | 铜精矿供应增量骤降 | 8 | | 二、 | | 再生加工企业开工下滑，废铜供应紧张阶段性缓解 10 | | 三、 | | 原料供应不足向冶炼端传导加速 11 | | 第三部分 | 消费面分析 | 13 | | 一、 | | 传统消费增速明显下滑 13 | | 二、 | 汽车消费韧性凸显 | 16 | | 三、 | 风光发电超预期增长 | 19 | | 四、 | 锂电铜箔爆发式增长 | 22 | | 五、 | 消费总结 | 23 | | 第四部分 | 供需平衡表 | 23 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 12 月报 2025 年 11 ...

| 第二部分 月行情复盘 | 11 | 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一、股票市场——先抑后扬，再创新高 | | | 3 | | | 二、股指期货——贴水周期性扩大，成交持仓下降 | | | 4 | | | 第三部分 后市展望及投资策略 | | 7 | | | | 一、科技股将再成焦点 | | 7 | | | | 二、日历效应与年末资金 | | 9 | | | | 三、后市策略 | | 10 | | | | 免责声明 | | | | 11 | 股指期货研发报告 股指期货 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 四千关口需要整固 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1.单边：高位震荡，波动操作。 2.套利：多 IM\IC 主力合约+空 ETF。 3.期权：双买策略。 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期、美股人工智能泡沫破灭，资金面变化。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：孙锋 电 话：021-65789277 邮 箱： sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F0211891 投资咨询资格证号：F0000 ...

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, on the supply side, with the peak - winter coal - using season approaching, coal prices are expected to remain firm. Northwest CTO continues external procurement, methanol auction prices are strong, coal - to - methanol profits will be maintained, and domestic methanol operating rates will reach new highs. In terms of imports, Iranian plants are stable, and the import volume in December is expected to increase to 1.6 million tons, with slow destocking of port inventories. On the demand side, there is no incremental demand in December. New MTO plants are to be put into operation at the end of the year, but limited by compressed profits, some port MTO plants will resume. Traditional demand capacity continues to expand, but there are few bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [4][96]. - High inventory pressure persists, but as Iran starts gas rationing and some plants shut down, methanol is oscillating to build a bottom [5][96]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the supply is relatively abundant with high domestic operating rates and expected import increase. Demand has no significant growth [4][96]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [5][9][96]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In November 2025, domestic mainstream methanol spot prices declined. Macroeconomic factors such as US economic data, tariff contradictions, and domestic policies affected the market. With the return to fundamentals and high port inventories, methanol futures declined more [10][11]. - On the supply side, domestic coal demand decreased in November, but inland methanol prices were firm. Coal - to - methanol profits shrank slightly but remained high. Domestic supply was loose, especially in the northwest. In the port area, MTO plant operating rates were stable. International plant operating rates were high and stable, and Iranian shipping speed increased in November, with an expected import volume of 1.65 million tons in December [14][19][21]. - The average prices in different regions declined month - on - month. International methanol operating rates were stable in November, with some plant changes. US supply was high, and overall demand was weak, leading to a weak methanol price [23][25][27]. 3.2.2 Supply Analysis - From 2024 to 2027, the new methanol plant commissioning enters a contraction cycle. In 2024, China's methanol capacity increased by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 75 million tons. The actual new capacity in 2024 was 3 million tons. In 2025, the capacity is expected to increase by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 85 million tons, and the actual new capacity (for sale) is 1.9 million tons [30][38]. - In November 2024, new domestic methanol plant commissioning was limited, with various production processes involved. In December 2025, the new commissioning pressure remains small [33][38]. - In November, coal prices fluctuated slightly, methanol prices declined, and coal - to - methanol profits narrowed but remained high. It is expected to remain high in December [40]. - Coal - to - methanol profits are high, and the operating rates are at a high level. As of the end of November, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.25%, and the northwest operating load was 85.76%. The coal - single - methanol operating rate was 97.15%. From January to October 2025, domestic methanol production increased significantly [43][47]. - In December, coal prices are expected to be stable and firm. With the return of overhauled plants, the overall operating rate will increase slightly, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable [49][52]. 3.2.3 December Import Forecast - From January to November 2025, China is expected to import about 12.83 million tons of methanol. As of November, Iranian shipping exceeded 1.16 million tons, and non - Iranian transshipment exceeded 600,000 tons. The import volume in December is expected to exceed 1.6 million tons [56][58]. - In 2024, international new capacity slowed down, with new projects mainly in the US and Malaysia. In 2025, international new capacity is still large, especially in Iran, where 4.95 million tons of new capacity are planned [62][64]. - Currently, some Iranian plants are shut down, and the daily output has decreased. The import volume in December is expected to be 1.6 million tons. High - level imports and stable MTO demand lead to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. As of the end of November, the total port inventory was 1.47 million tons [67][69][72]. 3.2.4 Limited Demand Increment in December and Little Macro - level Change - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In November, trade and geopolitical conflicts affected the domestic macro - environment, and the Fed's interest - rate cut timing is worthy of attention. In October, China's economic output remained stable, but the manufacturing PMI declined [76][77]. - In November, there was no new MTO plant commissioning. In the second half of 2025, 1.45 million tons of new MTO plants are expected to be commissioned, but some are postponed. Some MTO plants face elimination pressure due to profit and industrial - structure issues [83][87]. - In December, traditional downstream demand is unlikely to increase. The fundamentals of traditional downstream sectors are differentiated, with formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF having stable increments, and acetic acid, BDO, and DMC having more new increments. Some industries' operating rates are affected by weak demand [93]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply is abundant, and demand has no significant growth [96]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [96].

农产品板块研发报告 油脂缺乏利多驱动 短期或继续底部震荡 第一部分 前言概要 | | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | | | 二、马棕 11 | 月存增产预期，印尼关税下调一档 4 | | | 三、印度完成本年度采购，新年度或将增加棕榈油进口 | | 8 | | 四、美豆采购进度不快，国内油脂库存仍偏高 | | 11 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | | 免责声明 | | 16 | 【行情回顾】 11 月，油脂分化比较明显，其中棕榈油跌幅较大，豆油走出倒 V，而 菜油探底后震荡上涨。11 月中上旬棕榈油空头情绪较浓，棕榈油被空配以 及技术性打压，棕榈油下跌较多，而菜油受通关政策影响出现超跌反弹以及 加拿大计划推进生柴等，菜油震荡上涨。11 月中下旬受美国生柴消息扰动 以及马棕高频数据利空等，油脂波动加大，之后棕榈油在快速下跌后开始反 弹，而菜油在澳菜籽逐渐到港以及放 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The market sentiment of coking coal and coke is weak, waiting for new drivers [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price Charts**: There are multiple price charts including those for coking coal主力合约, coke主力合约, coking coal price index, medium - sulfur primary coking coal price, Mongolian 5 clean coal, Mongolian 5 raw coal, coking coal basis, high - quality low - volatile Australian coal CFR price and import profit, coke price index, quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price, coke export FOB price, and quasi - first - grade coke arrival price [10][13][22][26]. - **Production Charts**: Charts show national and Shanxi's raw coal production, national and Shanxi's coking clean coal production, coking coal mine capacity utilization, and coking coal mine raw coal inventory [40][42][46]. - **Import Data**: In October 2025, the total monthly import of coking coal was 1059000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%, but a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The cumulative import from January to October 2025 was 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Different countries had different import trends. For example, Mongolia's monthly import decreased by 10.6% month - on - month but increased by 36.4% year - on - year, while the US had no imports in October 2025 compared to 134000 tons in October 2024. There are also charts for import volume from various countries and the proportion of imported coking coal [49][53][65]. - **Import Clearance**: There are charts showing the import clearance of Mongolian coal at Gants Mod, Ceke, Mandula ports, and the total of three ports [67][68][72][74]. - **Export Data**: There are charts for the total export volume of coke and export volume to Indonesia, India, Malaysia [80][82][84][86]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Charts display the capacity utilization and daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization, iron water daily output, blast furnace start - up rate, and steel - mill profitability rate [89][94][95][97][99]. - **Inventory Data**: As of November 28, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (converted to clean coal) was 35.537 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 61620 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 289800 tons. The total coke inventory was 9.445 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14340 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52600 tons. There are also charts for various types of coking coal and coke inventories [100][104][107][111][113][117][119]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - No information provided regarding market outlook and strategy recommendation other than the section title.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken slightly compared to November, while the supply may decrease to around 390,000 tons. The market is in a tight balance with no obvious cost - side drivers. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of (8,500, 9,500). If there is a reduction in industrial silicon production in the Northwest due to environmental protection, the futures price may break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [4][5][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface - The report is the Industrial Silicon December Report 2025, with the view of range - bound fluctuations and attention to environmental protection in the Northwest [3]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, the industrial silicon futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply and demand were both weak, and the spot price generally showed an upward trend. In mid - November, affected by the silicone meeting, speculative funds entered the market, the intraday futures price rose by more than 5%, and Xinjiang silicon plants carried out large - scale hedging, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventories [9]. 2.2 Demand: Weaker in December - **DMC**: Since 2022, the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have supported the consumption of silicone materials. In 2025, the demand for silicone from the photovoltaic industry declined. After the new silicone monomer capacity was put into production in the second half of 2024, the industry became over - supplied. In November, silicone enterprises reached a consensus to cut production under certain conditions. Currently, the price increase is successful, and the December DMC operating rate is expected to be flat compared to November [16][17]. - **Polysilicon**: As of the end of November, some polysilicon enterprises had production adjustments. In December, the polysilicon operating rate will change little, and the monthly output is expected to be 112,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to November [19][20]. - **Aluminum alloy and exports**: Since September, the demand for aluminum alloy has increased. In December, the demand may weaken marginally, and the operating rate may decline slightly. In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased. The export volume in December is expected to be between that of September and October [22]. 2.3 Supply: Decrease in December - In November, the national industrial silicon production was 412,500 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons compared to October. In December, due to the increase in electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan, the number of operating furnaces may decrease by more than 20, and the production may decrease to around 390,000 tons. In the Northwest, the operating rate will change little without environmental protection pressure [25][27]. 2.4 Cost and Inventory - In November, the cost of industrial silicon in the Northwest increased slightly, and in December, the cost in the Southwest may increase by more than 600 yuan/ton. The current explicit inventory of industrial silicon is 960,000 tons. The inventory structure makes it easy for the futures and spot prices to rise in a positive cycle when there is bullish news, while a negative cycle requires a significant increase in factory inventories [32]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Supply - demand outlook**: In December, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken slightly, and the production may decrease to around 390,000 tons [44]. - **Trading logic**: The market is in a tight balance, with no obvious cost - side drivers. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of (8,500, 9,500), and may break through the upper limit if there is a production cut in the Northwest due to environmental protection [5][44]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Range operation, with the price reference of (8,500, 9,500) [6][44]. - **Arbitrage**: Long Si2601 and short Si2602 [6][44]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [6][44].