Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In December, terminal consumption weakens, export of downstream products declines month-on-month, and production schedules of components, batteries, and silicon wafers are reduced. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in December will be around 52GW, equivalent to a polysilicon demand of 104,000 tons. On the supply side, the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises in December changes little, and the monthly output is expected to be 112,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory continuing to accumulate [4][40]. - In November, the sharp decline in silicon wafer and battery prices restricts the possibility of polysilicon spot price increase. However, polysilicon manufacturers implement sales restrictions well and the inventory is concentrated, so it is also difficult for the spot price to decline in December. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in December. The storage platform has not been launched yet, and its launch will be a major positive factor, but it is difficult to see a trend - upward movement under the current situation. The pattern of a small number of new warehouse receipts will continue in December, and the futures market is expected to maintain a BACK structure. The polysilicon futures price in December is expected to fluctuate, with the near - month contract reference range of (52,000, 60,000) and the far - month contract reference range of (50,000, 58,000) [5][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface Summary - The report is the polysilicon December report released on November 28, 2025, with the theme of "Range - bound, pay attention to the launch rhythm of the platform company" [3] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, polysilicon futures showed a volatile trend without breaking through the October price range. In the early part of November, the market mainly speculated on the launch of the storage platform, but the launch time of the platform company was later than expected, so the futures price was weak. At the end of November, due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the market started to trade on the logic of insufficient warehouse receipts for the 2512 contract, leading to a sharp rebound in the futures price and a deep BACK structure in the monthly spread [9] 2.2 Demand: Polysilicon demand decreases month - on - month in December - **Component production schedule reduction**: In October 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 12.6GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% and a month - on - month increase of 30.4%. From January to October, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.48%. In October, the export volume of photovoltaic components was 18.77GW, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6%. In December, the terminal demand for photovoltaic components decreases month - on - month compared with November, and the enterprise order volume is poor. The production schedule of domestic photovoltaic components in December is expected to be 42GW, a decrease of 4GW month - on - month [13] - **Battery and silicon wafer production schedules follow component reduction**: In the second half of the year, the export demand for photovoltaic batteries is strong, with a year - on - year increase of over 60%. The growth mainly comes from Turkey and Indonesia, but the growth in Turkey has limited sustainability due to the implementation of battery import tax on September 17, and the increase in Indonesia is mostly from re - export trade. In December, due to the reduction of component production schedule and low inventory in the battery link, the photovoltaic battery production schedule is expected to decrease to around 48GW. In November, silicon wafer prices declined. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in December will decrease to 52GW. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese silicon wafers was 48.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 35.1%, and the cumulative export amount was 210 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 37.2% [21] 2.3 Supply: Polysilicon production schedule is reduced in December - As of the end of November, there were 11 polysilicon enterprises in production. Tongwei Co., Ltd. reduced production in its Yunnan base and shut down its Sichuan base in November. Xinjiang Daqo New Energy increased production in its Zhunbei base in October, and the supply may be reflected in November. GCL Technology reduced production by nearly 4,000 tons in October and may continue to slightly reduce production in December. It is expected that the monthly output of polysilicon in December will be 112,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with November [31] 2.4 Inventory: The high - inventory pattern of polysilicon remains unchanged - According to the production schedule data, the supply and demand of polysilicon were balanced in November. The spot market transaction of polysilicon in November improved compared with October, and large - order transactions occurred between upstream and downstream leading enterprises before the Chengdu Photovoltaic Conference, with the price remaining the same as in October. Currently, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises is 271,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with October. The non - standard inventory of spot - futures traders is 15,000 - 20,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt volume is about 27,000 tons. The downstream inventory is about 160,000 tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is concentrated in a few manufacturers, which have certain price - support ability in the spot market [32] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.1 Fundamental Outlook - In December, terminal consumption weakens, export of downstream products declines month - on - month, and production schedules of components, batteries, and silicon wafers are reduced. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in December will be 52GW, equivalent to a polysilicon demand of 104,000 tons. On the supply side, the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises in December changes little, and the monthly output is expected to be 112,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory continuing to accumulate [40] 3.2 Trading Logic Analysis - In November, the sharp decline in silicon wafer and battery prices restricts the possibility of polysilicon spot price increase. However, polysilicon manufacturers implement sales restrictions well and the inventory is concentrated, so it is also difficult for the spot price to decline in December. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in December. The storage platform has not been launched yet, and its launch will be a major positive factor, but it is difficult to see a trend - upward movement under the current situation. The pattern of a small number of new warehouse receipts will continue in December, and the futures market is expected to maintain a BACK structure. The polysilicon futures price in December is expected to fluctuate, with the near - month contract reference range of (52,000, 60,000) and the far - month contract reference range of (50,000, 58,000) [5][41] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side trading**: Range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying - **Arbitrage**: Positive arbitrage - **Options**: None recommended [7][42]

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 14 | | 免责声明 | | 15 | 芳烃板块研发报告 纯苯苯乙烯产业链 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 纯苯供需弱势 苯乙烯库存有待去化 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 15 页 芳烃板块研发报告 纯苯苯乙烯产业链 12 月报 第二部分 基本面情况 第 3 页 共 15 页 2025 年 11 月 28 日 图 1：纯苯价格 单位：元/吨，美元/吨 图 2：纯苯外盘价格 单位：美元/吨 55 65 75 85 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 25/1/1 25/2/1 25/3/1 25/4/1 25/5/1 25/6/1 25/7/1 25/8/1 25/9/1 25/10/1 25/11/1 纯苯华东市场价 纯苯华北市场价 布油收盘价（右） 600 700 800 900 1000 25/1/1 25/2/1 25/3/1 25/4/1 25/5/1 25/6/1 25/7/1 25/8/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak sentiment in the bond market persists, and it is waiting for the negative factors to materialize. The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. However, the current situation of the fundamentals and the capital market does not support a trend - like rebound in yields, so the bond market trend remains uncertain [6][70]. - Although the rumors of strict public - offering sales regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations, preventive adjustments help release potential risks in advance, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent unilateral trend of the bond market [6][70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors such as interest rate cuts, inflation, or real - estate policies [6][70][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In November, the bond market did not continue the previous month's recovery trend. Near the end of the month, rumors of the upcoming implementation of public - offering sales regulations resurfaced, and market sentiment quickly weakened. As of the mid - day on November 28, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL decreased by 0.12%, 0.25%, 0.48%, and 1.68% respectively within the month. As of the close on November 27, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.6325%, 1.6068%, 1.6707%, and 1.7541% respectively [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The weakening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year and the improvement in inflation expectations continue to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend is still uncertain with few high - certainty opportunities [6]. - With the public - offering sales regulations still undecided, the market at the end of the month is more dominated by investor behavior and sentiment. The rumors of strict regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations. However, preventive adjustments help release potential risks, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [6]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Lightly bet on short - term rebounds, and a better window for going long may appear after the negative factors materialize [7]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [7]. - Options: No recommendations [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Logic Analysis 3.2.1 "Weak Reality" Continues, Focus on Potential Expectation Gaps - In October, major domestic macro - economic indicators generally weakened. In terms of demand, in the investment sector, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 12.2%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was - 1.62%, a new low for the year. In the consumption sector, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% [10]. - In the foreign trade sector, in October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The decline in export growth was related to the high base in the same period last year and the intensification of Sino - US trade disputes. The weakening of import growth reflected the weak domestic demand [11]. - On the production side, although there was still resilience, the year - on - year growth rate also declined. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%, a new low for the year [11]. - The bond market has not fully priced in the weak fundamentals because it is not difficult to achieve the annual economic growth target, and the decline in indicators may be temporary. However, the continuous weakening of some domestic demand indicators since the second half of the year may indicate that the multiplier effect of previous policies is not obvious, and the self - repair ability of the domestic economy is weak. Geopolitical factors also cannot be ignored [12][15]. 3.2.2 Prices Continue to Recover, Inflation Expectations Are Optimistic - Price indicators continued to recover. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI were both 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of core CPI both increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of PPI were - 2.1% and 0.1% respectively, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the month - on - month growth rate turned positive for the first time this year [21]. - The current recovery of CPI is driven by structural factors, and there may still be deflationary pressure. The high - frequency data shows that the upward momentum of industrial product prices is not strong, and price recovery may require demand - side policy support. Multiple factors may lead to the GDP deflator turning positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [22][35]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and an Inflection Point in M1 Appears - In October, financial data was mediocre. New RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 280 billion yuan. The balance of loans increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [36]. - The slowdown in credit expansion affected deposit creation. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, showing an inflection point [39][41]. - Weak financial data is favorable for the bond market, but the market has already priced in the weakness to a certain extent. The probability of the central bank increasing monetary policy due to weak financial data is not high. In November, the loan situation may improve, and the social financing scale may be supported, but the year - on - year growth rate of some financial indicators such as M1 may continue to slow down [49]. 3.2.4 The Central Bank's Support Remains, but It's Difficult for Fund Prices to Decline - In November, the market's capital supply and demand were generally balanced. As of November 27, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3740% and 1.4685% respectively, up 3.68bp and 1.06bp from the previous month. The central bank's attitude towards maintaining liquidity is unchanged, and the reverse - repurchase operation shows a peak - shaving and valley - filling characteristic, and the pace of "long - term money" injection is stable [55]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report of the central bank continues to have a relatively loose tone, but the expectation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts within the year has further decreased. It is difficult for fund prices to decline, which restricts the decline of Treasury bond yields, especially short - term yields. The report may also imply that the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is around 2.25% [65][67]. 3.2.5 The Public - Offering New Regulations Are Uncertain, and Incremental Information Is Mostly Negative - In mid - to late November, some investors may have briefly speculated on the central bank's Treasury bond trading information in November, causing the TF and T contracts to perform relatively strongly. However, near the end of the month, rumors of public - offering sales regulations suppressed bond market sentiment. Incremental information such as potential mortgage interest subsidy policies, Sino - US leader phone calls, and rumors of the central bank's bond purchases falling short of expectations are relatively negative [68]. - If the mortgage interest subsidy policy is implemented next year with a large subsidy amount and wide coverage, it will be negative for the bond market in the long - term, but the short - term impact may be mainly on sentiment [68]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend remains uncertain. The public - offering sales regulations are uncertain, and short - term fluctuations are intensified, but there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [70][71]. - In terms of operations, after the sharp decline in Treasury bond futures at the end of the month, short - term unilateral trading can moderately bet on oversold rebounds. In the long - term, it is reasonable to allocate some long positions in Treasury bond futures to hedge against macro - expectation gaps. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1677 (+12/+0.72%) [3] - Spot market: Factory - gate prices increased, and trading was stable. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1589 - 1610 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized 1560 - 1580 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 28, the daily urea production was 20.34 tons, the same as the previous workday and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a 0.06% increase from 84.04% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory - gate price was weakly stable. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory. Orders were scarce, and the factory - gate price was expected to be weakly stable [5] - Henan: Market sentiment was weak. The factory - gate price followed the increase, but trading volume decreased. It was expected to operate weakly [5] - Areas around the delivery area: The factory - gate price was firm. Demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. The factory - gate price was expected to remain stable [5] - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, increasing daily production to around 20.4 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, increasing the impact of international prices on the domestic market. Demand from compound fertilizer plants declined, and inventory was high. Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.33 tons to around 1.36 million tons [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Coal Daily Report - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Qualification Number: F3068848 [5] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017786 [5] - Contact Information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - On November 28, port market quotations continued to decline, with increased willingness of traders to sell, and the mainstream price range further moved down. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 820 - 825 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 720 - 725 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 620 - 625 yuan/ton in the port market. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2]. Group 3: Important Information - From January to October this year, national railways累计 sent 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Supply - The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 27, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply tended to be loose. However, in late November, the coal output in major producing areas was running at a low level, and the supply tightened [4]. Import - China's procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on China's demand [4]. Demand - This week, the demand was mediocre. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement performance was average, and there was still no improvement in India's procurement demand. Power plant loads were maintained between 60 - 70%, and the operation was relatively stable. Downstream power plants mainly relied on long - term agreement coal to replenish inventory, with limited demand for market coal. Non - power industries purchased on demand and had a significantly lower acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Inventory - Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 30 trains. The port inventory was generally stable. As of November 28, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory depletion, while inland power plants had a neutral inventory [4]. Price Forecast - Currently, the port FOB price is weakly回调. The pit - mouth safety supervision has been lifted, the coal mine operating rate has increased, production has risen, and the demand for chemical coal is okay, so the pit - mouth price has weakly declined. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since September, the rubber sector has been oscillating within a range, with the bottom rising but struggling to break previous highs, making it difficult to disprove both long and short positions [6]. - In the natural rubber market, the El Niño index was still on an upward trend as of early October, while the Southern Oscillation Index showed signs of stabilization in August. Attention is focused on whether the data early in November will show a clear turning - point [6]. - Thailand's floods in late November have drawn market attention. The weekly average production - weighted rainfall of 39.01mm reached a new high since March 2011, with a short - term impact on supply similar to that driving the sharp rise in late 2016 [6]. - Currently, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant. From April to September, the total apparent consumption of butadiene rubber was 744,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of +21.6%, the highest since January 2021, contributing to the BR - RU spread widening to 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. - After the concentrated cancellation of RU contract warehouse receipts in 2024, the total inventory dropped below 80,000 tons, the lowest since 2012. A warehouse receipt level of 100,000 tons may be a dividing line between bear and bull markets, and the RU contract with domestic WF as the underlying asset has met one of the conditions for a trend reversal [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (Energy Center) has revised the regulations of the 20 - rubber futures, preparing for the introduction of African rubber. The future announced premium or discount will determine whether the NR pricing remains unchanged or moves downward [7]. - Downstream and macro data are positive. Monetary liquidity is abundant, whether observed from the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, or the domestic M1 - M2 gap. Although the domestic stock market has declined, its 20% year - on - year increase is significantly stronger than that of the rubber sector. Tire consumption is relatively stable, with industry power consumption, tire production, operating rates, and inventory mostly on par with last year. It may take time for macro expectations to be reflected in the rubber sector [7]. - The fundamentals are relatively strong [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Supply 3.1.1 Climate - **ENSO (El Niño, Southern Oscillation Composite Index)**: Analyzed the impact of the ENSO index on the RU single - side, including index changes and leading relationships [18][20][22]. - **El Niño**: Studied its influence on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, with corresponding index analyses and leading - time relationships [26][32]. - **Southern Oscillation**: Examined its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, along with index analyses and leading - time relationships [37][41]. 3.1.2 Commodity Valuation - **Crude Oil and Gold**: Analyzed the prices of crude oil and gold and their index - based impacts on the RU single - side, the BR - RU spread, and the smoke - sheet - RU spread [47][49][59]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: Studied the price of Brent crude oil and its index - based impact on the BR - RU spread [54]. - **Gold**: Analyzed the price of gold and its index - based impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [59]. 3.2 Micro Supply 3.2.1 Global Data - **Absolute Price**: Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, previous - month, and previous - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of the ANRPC natural rubber industry and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [69][74]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, its impacts on the RU single - side, the smoke - sheet - RU spread, and the BR - RU spread; also analyzed glue and cup - rubber prices, related spreads, and their impacts on the BR - RU spread; and examined the export of smoked - sheet rubber and its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [80][95][121]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. 3.3 Trade Circulation 3.3.1 Global Data - **Balance Sheets of Six Major Southeast Asian Producing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2 Overseas Data - **International Trade**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Japanese Rubber Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Malaysian Natural Rubber Retail Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Southeast Asian Standard - Rubber Processing Profit**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Overseas Rubber and Plastic Machinery**: Not elaborated in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that methanol will mainly continue its oscillatory trend. The international device operating rate has declined, with some Iranian devices shutting down due to gas restrictions, causing a slight disturbance to imports. The domestic supply is abundant, with high domestic operating rates and stable coal - based profits. The downstream demand is stable, and although there are some fluctuations in the market, the impact on methanol futures is weakening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market showed a strong oscillation, closing at 2135 (+18/+0.85%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 1980 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2170 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - based methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price has rebounded, the import positive spread has continued to widen, the external operating rate has increased at a high level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 125 tons in November and continues to tender at a discounted price [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices running stably and some operating at partial loads [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The port is destocking due to less arrivals this week, while the inland market has abundant supplies [4]. Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Stop profit on short positions [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The fundamentals of apples this year are relatively strong due to factors such as decreased apple production, low expected apple storage volume, small fruit size, poor quality, low excellent fruit rate, high purchase price, low warehouse receipt production rate, high warehouse receipt cost, and concerns about long - term preservation [4][31][33] - Although the apple market is strong, considering the significant increase in apple futures prices, there is a short - term divergence in the market. The upward space for the January contract and the May contract is expected to be limited [33] Summary by Directory Part 1: Preface Summary Market Review - In November, the main continuous price of apple futures was volatile, and the price center shifted up from the previous range of 9,000 - 9,300 yuan/ton to the range of 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton. The main reason was the low apple storage volume and high cost of making apple warehouse receipts [3][10] - In November, the price of new - season Fuji apples in Shaanxi was relatively stable, and the market transaction was good. The opening price of 70 semi - commercial paper - bagged Fuji in Luochuan, Shaanxi was around 3.85 yuan/jin, then rose to 4.15 yuan/jin, 0.4 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The trading price of 80 and above first - and second - grade sources of paper - bagged Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was maintained at around 3.75 yuan/jin, basically the same as the same period last year [10] Market Outlook - The apple fundamentals this year are strong, with decreased production, low expected storage volume, small fruit size, poor quality, and concerns about long - term preservation [4] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the apple trend is slightly strong, but considering the current high price, the upward space for the January contract is relatively limited - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] Part 2: Fundamental Situation Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, including the price trends of apple futures and spot apples in November [10] Cold Storage Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 7.6675 million tons, a decrease of 64,100 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 795,000 tons (9.4%). The cold - storage inventory in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased year - on - year, while that in Shanxi and Liaoning increased. The current national cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years, only higher than that in 2018/19 [12][13] - Apple storage is basically over, and it is expected that the cold - storage inventory will decrease significantly in December and January during the pre - Spring Festival holiday consumption period [13] New - Season Apple Listing and Demand - In November, the market mainly consumed fresh apples, so the cold - storage apple shipping speed was very slow. It is expected that the cold - storage apple shipping speed will be slow in early December. The holiday consumption for the Spring Festival may also start late - In November, the demand for apples in the Guangzhou wholesale market was average. The average daily arrival volume was lower than that of last year and the year before. In December, the cold - storage apple shipment volume and market demand are expected to increase seasonally, but may still be lower than last year [21] Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 17%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 684,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. In November, the export volume is expected to increase seasonally but still be lower than last year - Apple imports: In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 3,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 111,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.1%. In November, the import volume is expected to remain low [26] Substitute Situation - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits: In November, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits increased slightly. It is expected to continue to rise slightly in December, which will support the apple price - The average wholesale price of tangerines: In November, the price of tangerines dropped significantly. In December, the overall fruit price is expected to be slightly strong, but the price of tangerines may still be relatively weak [29] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the market outlook in the preface summary, emphasizing the strong apple fundamentals this year [31][33] Market Analysis - Although the apple market is strong, due to the significant increase in futures prices, there is a short - term divergence in the market. The upward space for the January contract and the May contract is expected to be limited [33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - International soybean new - crop supply is improving, while domestic soybean meal supply faces significant pressure [2]. - The subsequent price of US soybeans is mainly influenced by the weather in South American producing areas. The new - crop supply increase of international soybeans mainly comes from Brazil, and the international soybean price may be more affected by the growth of Brazilian soybeans [4]. - Domestic soybean meal is currently in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with a possible slight improvement in inventory pressure, but the driving effect on the market may be limited. There is significant uncertainty in future supply and demand [4]. - The future of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly affected by demand. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the price of soybean meal rises, rapeseed meal may have some upward potential [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary Market Review - US soybeans showed a high - level oscillation in November. They rose due to improved export prospects and a downward adjustment of crop yield in the early stage, and then entered an oscillation and adjustment phase [3]. - The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated at a high level, influenced by cost - side changes and domestic supply [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market oscillated. It rose in the early stage due to uncertain rapeseed supply but declined later because of average demand and high granular rapeseed meal inventory [3]. Market Outlook - The subsequent price of US soybeans is mainly affected by the weather in South American producing areas. The new - crop supply increase of international soybeans mainly comes from Brazil [4]. - Domestic soybean meal is currently in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with a possible slight improvement in inventory pressure and limited upward potential for the market [4]. - The future of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly affected by demand. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the price of soybean meal rises, rapeseed meal may have some upward potential [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: As weather influence increases, it is recommended to buy long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal on dips [6][57]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to buy long positions in M35 on dips [6][57]. - Options: It is recommended to buy a bull call spread [6][57]. 2. International Soybean Fundamental Situation US Soybeans: Slight Improvement in Exports and Inventory Pressure - The monthly supply - demand report in November was generally bullish, with a downward adjustment of yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre and a downward adjustment of export estimates to 1.635 billion bushels [8]. - By November 16, the US soybean harvest progress reached 95%. Since November, the weather in US producing areas has been relatively dry. Exports and crushing have improved significantly [8]. - From November 18 - 24, US private exporters exported 1.707 million tons of soybeans to China. In October, the estimated US soybean crushing volume was about 227.647 million bushels [9]. Brazil: Limited Pressure on Old - crop and Loose Supply - demand for New - crop - The Brazilian monthly supply - demand report mainly adjusted new - crop data, with a slight downward revision of new - crop output to 177.602 million tons, an increase in exports to 112.108 million tons, and an increase in ending inventory [20]. - The pressure on old - crop soybeans is expected to be normal. In November, the estimated export volume was about 4.4 million tons, and the cumulative export is expected to reach 109 million tons [21]. - As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was about 78%, lower than the historical average. Dry weather has slowed down sowing, but the impact on growth is expected to be limited [26]. Argentina: Reduced Pressure on Old - crop Supply and Commencement of New - crop Sowing - In October, the soybean crushing volume in Argentina was about 4.3 million tons, and the export volume was 1.6 million tons. The pressure on old - crop supply is expected to decrease [30]. - From April to October, the domestic soybean selling progress was about 65%. The remaining sellable quantity is estimated to be 17.5 million tons, with a monthly average consumption of about 3.5 million tons from November to March next year [30]. - In November, Argentine soybean exports are expected to decline, and the export price has risen. The crushing profit has continued to decline, and the crushing volume is expected to decrease [31]. 3. Domestic Meal Fundamental Situation Soybean Meal: Improved Spot Market but Persistent Supply Pressure - In October, the soybean crushing volume and soybean meal pick - up volume reached record highs, driven by high domestic soybean inventory, good market demand, and normal crushing profit [35]. - In November, the domestic crushing volume was lower than expected but still at a high level. The soybean meal market maintained strong pick - up momentum, but there was obvious inventory accumulation pressure [36]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis declined by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in most regions compared to the end of last month. Both spot and basis trading volumes increased significantly [36]. Soybean Meal: Expected Decline in Crushing Volume and Gradual Reduction of Inventory - The balance sheet predicts that domestic soybean meal inventory will gradually decline in the coming months due to a significant reduction in supply caused by losses in crushing profit and limited imports of US soybeans [47]. - Although the crushing profit has slightly recovered, it remains significantly in the red, and the subsequent improvement space is limited. The supply pressure in Brazil is not obvious, and the export volume may decline further [48]. Rapeseed Meal: Low Inventory and Persistent Price Pressure - The domestic rapeseed meal market has remained stable this month, with no spot trading and limited trading volume of granular rapeseed meal [49]. - There is no new import of rapeseed this month, and the crushing volume is low. Only the inventory of granular rapeseed meal is relatively high [49]. - In the short - term, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to remain stable, but in the long - term, if there is no new import of rapeseed, the supply will tighten [49]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Future Outlook Comprehensive Analysis - International soybeans are expected to oscillate at a high level this month. There is still some pressure on US soybeans, but the supply in South America is relatively small. If the weather in Brazil improves, international soybeans may decline [55][57]. - Domestic soybean meal will remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. The price is mainly affected by the cost side and crushing profit. If the weather in Brazil does not improve, the price may rise [57]. - The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by soybean meal. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the fundamentals of soybean meal do not change significantly, rapeseed meal demand will remain weak, and prices will be under pressure [57]. Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: As weather influence increases, it is recommended to buy long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal on dips [6][57]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to buy long positions in M35 on dips [6][57]. - Options: It is recommended to buy a bull call spread [6][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase fell short of expectations, and the EC market fluctuated at a low level after a sharp rise and fall. The market has different views on the future freight rate levels, and the freight rate trend in December is relatively volatile [8][17][158]. - The delivery volume of new container ships in October continued to decline, and the container shipping market is expected to face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule arrangements and deployments [53]. - The impact of US tariffs continues to affect global trade. Weak demand led to a decline in exports in October. However, Sino - US tariff negotiations have achieved results, and the two sides have mutually adjusted tariff measures, which has released a signal of easing bilateral economic and trade relations [127][146]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Foreword Summary - **Market Review**: In December, the traditional peak season arrived, and shipping companies' long - term contract cargo improved. However, due to the average cargo - booking situation in the spot market in the first half of December, most shipping companies lowered their quotes. The actual freight rates were mostly between 2000 - 2400 US dollars/FEU, lower than the initial price increase target of 3100 - 3200 US dollars/FEU. The market still has different views on the December freight rates [3][158]. - **Market Outlook**: From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 262,300/272,200 TEU, and it will be 300,300 TEU in January 2026. The valuation center in December has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. The 02 contract is still given a partial discount based on the spread with the 12 contract, but the spread between 12 - 2 is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies still have price increase actions in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [4][158][159]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159]. 3.2 Market Review The mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase implementation fell short of expectations. In November, the EC market first rose sharply due to the digestion of price increase sentiment, then fell back as shipping companies lowered their spot quotes, and finally dropped significantly at the end of November due to the larger - than - expected price cut in December [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - **Differences in Cargo - Booking Situations in the Peak Season**: In November, the actual implementation of shipping companies' price increases was average, and the spot freight rates first rose slightly and then fell back. In December, although the long - term contract cargo improved, the spot cargo - booking situation was average, and some shipping companies lowered their quotes for the first half of December. The market still has different views on the freight rates in the second half of December and January [17]. - **Container New Ship Delivery Volume Continued to Decline in October**: In October, the global delivery of new container ships was 149,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.4%. The new order volume in October was 81,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 80.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.8%. It is expected that the container shipping market will face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year [53]. - **US Tariffs Affected Global Trade and Caused a Decline in Exports in October**: In October, China's exports were 305.35 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year and the impact of US tariffs on the global trade chain. Exports to the US continued to decline deeply, exports to the EU grew slowly, and exports to ASEAN maintained strong growth [127]. 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The freight rate trend in December is volatile, and the market has different views on the freight rates. The 12 - month valuation center has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [158][159]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159].