1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The total steel inventory has turned to accumulation, but hot - rolled steel is still de - stocking. Seasonal factors have weakened the demand for building materials, and steel exports have declined in January. Although there is cost support, the weakening demand also limits the upward space of steel prices. [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.04 million tons (+2.82), and that of hot - rolled coil was 305.51 million tons (+1). The daily average hot - metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 229.5 million tons (+2.07), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel plants was 34.8% (-0.8). The profit of electric - arc furnace steel has declined, and the long - process steel profit remains profitable with an increase in hot - metal output. [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 174.96 million tons (-25.48), and that for hot - rolled coil was 308.34 million tons (-2.43). Building material demand has seasonally declined, while hot - rolled coil demand is affected by pre - holiday restocking in the manufacturing industry but shows a decline in apparent demand due to a rapid drop in exports in January. Domestic project investment has insufficient growth, the real estate market is still weak, but the manufacturing industry shows some positive trends, and the auto industry maintains strong growth. [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.83 million tons in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.77 million tons. [4] - **Outlook and Strategy**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with a short - term correction. It is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and hold the short position of the ratio between hot - rolled coil and coking coal. It is advisable to wait and see for options. [7][9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Price**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan (+10), and in Beijing was 3170 yuan (+20). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+10), and in Tianjin was 3190 yuan (+10). [13] - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric - arc furnace was - 44.58 yuan (-16.3), and the off - peak electricity profit was 120 yuan (-16). [32] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International Trade**: Mexico imposed preliminary anti - dumping duties on hollow profiles from China and the US, and Vietnam made a positive final ruling on the sunset review of cold - rolled carbon steel coils from China. [34] - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. [34] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations. [34] - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 2.60%. Real estate development investment was - 15.9%, manufacturing investment was +1.9%, and infrastructure investment was +0.13%. [39] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 229.5 million tons (+2.07), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel plants was 34.8% (-0.8). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.04 million tons (+2.82), and that of hot - rolled coil was 305.51 million tons (+1). [56][61] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 174.96 million tons (-5.5% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, - 25.48 million tons month - on - month), and that for hot - rolled coil was 308.34 million tons (-1.7% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, - 2.43 million tons month - on - month). Building material demand has declined, and hot - rolled coil exports may decline in January. [64][76] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 858.0 | 839.0 | 19.0 | I01-I05 | 45.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | | DCE05 | 813.0 | 828.0 | -15.0 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 23.5 | -2.5 | | DCE09 | 792.0 | 804.5 | -12.5 | I09-I01 | -66.0 | -34.5 | -31.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 828 | 809 | 19 | 899 | 52 | 63 | 87 | | 纽曼粉 | 830 | 811 | 19 | 908 | 61 | 72 | 95 | | 麦克粉 | 834 | 812 | 22 | 920 | 73 | 84 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and considering the significant decline in commodities today, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate, with support from high processing costs and potential upward drive from rising foreign sugar prices, but facing sales pressure during the peak domestic sugar - pressing season and global sugar production increase expectations [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,290, down 3 (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 15,167 (down 3,837) and an open interest of 76,794 (up 909); SR01 closed at 5,300, down 7 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 657 (down 439) and an open interest of 8,782 (down 649); SR05 closed at 5,279, down 2 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 218,370 (down 13,539) and an open interest of 429,678 (down 10,268) [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions vary, with prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an being 5,390, 5,230, 5,660, 5,370, 5,530, 5,545, and 5,810 respectively. The price changes in Kunming, Wuhan, and Nanning are 10, and the price change in Bayuquan is 5,530. The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Rizhao, and Xi'an are 111, - 49, 381, 91, 266, and 531 respectively [3] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread is - 21 (up 5), SR09 - SR05 spread is 11 (down 1), and SR09 - SR01 spread is - 10 (up 4) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.04, and a freight of 32.75, the in - quota price is 4,032, the out - of - quota price is 5,123, the spread with Liuzhou is 267, the spread with Rizhao is 422, and the spread with the futures market is 177. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price is 4,078, the out - of - quota price is 5,182, the spread with Liuzhou is 208, the spread with Rizhao is 363, and the spread with the futures market is 118 [3] 2. Market Judgment - **Important Information** - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 7, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons (25.35%) compared to the same period last year. The sugar content in cane was 11.54%, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. The sugar - producing rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 0.5673 million tons (27.03%) compared to the same period last year [5] - As of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44 (previously 42), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5823 million tons (previously 1.417 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 0.1653 million tons (11.66%) [5] - The Indian government announced a 1.5 - million - ton sugar export quota for the 2025 - 26 sugar - crushing season. If a sugar factory does not want to export according to the quota, it can abandon the quota before March 31, 2026. The government will review the export performance of sugar factories after March 31, 2026, and may re - allocate unused quotas [7] - **Logical Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian cane is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.904 million tons, an increase of 0.543 million tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the over - expected increase may have a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar prices and the strong performance of commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range over the years. After the previous over - expected decline, the short - covering market has been repaired. The high processing cost of domestic sugar (most sugar factories in Guangxi have a cost of over 5,400 yuan/ton) supports the futures market. The upward trend of the US sugar price on the external market has an upward driving force for Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 2025/26 season, there is significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform [8] - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and considering the significant decline in commodities today, the sugar price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Arbitrage**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, white sugar basis for different contract months, and price spreads between different contracts [11][15][17]

Group 1: Report Overview - Issue date: January 8, 2026 [1] - Report type: Black Metal Daily, Ferroalloy Daily Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided Group 3: Core View - The overall market sentiment has cooled down, and both silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money straddle options, and expect short - term fluctuations for unilateral trading [6] Group 4: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5668, down 192 for the day and 82 for the week, with a trading volume of 276442 (down 52657) and an open interest of 245565 (down 12151) [3] - SM主力合约 closed at 5892, down 108 for the day and 50 for the week, with a trading volume of 275888 (down 41199) and an open interest of 264806 (down 19518) [3] Spot - Silicon ferroalloy spot prices in some regions increased by up to 20 yuan/ton, while manganese ferroalloy spot prices increased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton [3][5] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy basis and manganese ferroalloy basis showed different daily and weekly changes in different regions [3] - The SF - SM spread was - 224, down 84 for the day and 32 for the week [3] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port showed a slight increase, while the prices of semi - coke small materials remained stable [3][5] Group 5: Market Judgement Silicon Ferroalloy - Supply: There is an expectation of supply contraction in the future due to the rumored differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi [5] - Demand: Steel production has increased, but inventory accumulation may limit future blast furnace复产 [5] - Cost: The electricity price in the main production areas has been stable recently [5] - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations are expected as the event - driven factor has ended [5] Manganese Ferroalloy - Supply: Some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of the year, leading to a slight increase in supply [5] - Demand: Blast furnace复产 in January and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support raw material demand [5] - Cost: Manganese ore port inventory remains low, and port spot prices are strong [5] - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations are expected due to cost support [5] Group 6: Important Information - On the 8th, the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were reported, such as semi - carbonate Mn36.6%Fe4.6% at 36, Gabon block Mn47% at 43.5, etc [7] - US private sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, but was lower than expected [7] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, basis, costs, and profits of ferroalloys [8][11][14][16][17][20][22][25] - The production costs and profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy in different regions are presented [19][25]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" dated January 8, 2026, with the theme "Supply Improves, Prices Fall Overall" [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with a futures practice certificate number F3045719 and an investment consulting certificate number Z0015458. Contact email: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - Bean meal: Contract 01 closed at 3146, down 25; Contract 05 closed at 2782, down 29; Contract 09 closed at 2875, down 13. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao increased by 10 respectively [3] - Rapeseed meal: Contract 01 closed at 2590, down 87; Contract 05 closed at 2358, down 61; Contract 09 closed at 2419, down 46. Spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi increased by 51, 31, and 31 respectively [3] Monthly Spreads - Bean meal: 15 - spread increased by 4 to 364; 59 - spread decreased by 16 to -93; 91 - spread increased by 12 to -271 [3] - Rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 26 to 232; 59 - spread decreased by 15 to -61; 91 - spread increased by 41 to -171 [3] Cross - variety Futures Spreads - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread was 556, up from 494; Bean - rapeseed 09 spread was 456, up from 423. Oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.631, up from 2.583 [3] Spot Spreads - Bean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 9 to 592; Bean meal - sunflower meal spread decreased by 19 to 822; Rapeseed meal - sunflower meal spread decreased by 30 to 240 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market showed a decline. Although good exports provided some support, overall supply - demand was loose, putting pressure on prices. The domestic bean meal market declined due to market information, with cost support and concerns about future supply. Rapeseed meal also declined significantly, affected by bean meal and market information. The bean - rapeseed meal spread rose, and the monthly spreads of both bean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand situation, with limited price support from the balance sheet. Future prices will be affected by exports and crushing. In South America, Brazil's new - crop sowing progress is accelerating but still below the historical average. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest, and exports are likely to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but future crushing may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and exports and crushing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand situation. Oil mills' operating rates are high, supply is sufficient, and提货量 is increasing, with high inventory. Market transactions have decreased recently, and there is uncertainty about future supply. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% from last week and 19.48% year - on - year. Bean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% from last week and 71.18% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is weakening, oil mill operations have almost stopped, rapeseed supply is low, and there is still supply pressure. As of January 2, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, both unchanged from last week [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market may face pressure if supply remains high. Brazil's short - term weather is good, and the harvest is expected to progress smoothly, with potential bumper - harvest pressure. The international soybean market is still loose, and prices may face pressure. South American near - term supply may tighten, and market transactions have decreased, supporting prices. Domestic soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, but supply is uncertain. In the long - term, supply is loose, and prices face pressure. Rapeseed meal is mainly affected by macro factors, with average demand and significant supply - side changes. The bean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. The monthly spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be under pressure [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - selling is recommended - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the crushing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from February to July 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, bean meal price, soybean oil price, and changes in crushing profit [8]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7944 | (14) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8474 | | | | 8524 | 8344 | | 580 | 10 530 | 0 | 400 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8612 | 50 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8582 | | | | 8572 | 8742 | | -30 | 0 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 1 月 08 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2288 | 0 | 0.00% | 1,430 | -19.57% | 16,210 | -13.08% | | C2605 | | 2274 | 21 | 0.92% | 191,827 | 40.13% | 549,409 | 4.26% | | C2509 | | 2295 | 15 | 0.65% | 12,156 | 86.27% | 47,934 | 5.24% | | CS2601 | | 2486 | 1 | 0.04% | 0 | -100.00% | 2,400 | 0.00% | | CS2605 | | 2581 | 36 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The subsequent supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to continue to manifest, with the overall direction of the live pig spot price likely to decline, and the overall upside potential of pig prices is limited due to sufficient supply [3][4] - Live pig futures prices are under downward pressure. In the short - term, prices may be supported, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on prices is obvious, and the futures market will tend to decline [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, live pig prices across the country showed a volatile trend. The average spot price was 12.99 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [3] - The number of live pigs sold by large - scale enterprises has increased significantly. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs is generally average, and the secondary fattening has continued to enter the market, but the subsequent number of entrants may decrease. The slaughter weight of live pigs remains high, and the supply of large - weight pigs is relatively large [3] Futures Price - Live pig futures prices are under downward pressure. The recent slowdown in spot price increases and the recovery of slaughter have led to a decline in the futures market. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and prices may be supported, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure is obvious [4] Breeding and Slaughter - The price of piglets this week was 251 yuan, up 24 yuan from last week, and the price of sows was 1554 yuan, up 3 yuan from last week. The spot breeding profit has improved, with self - breeding and self - raising profit at - 34.59 yuan/head, up 95.52 yuan from the previous period, and the profit of purchasing piglets at - 48.35 yuan/head, up 114.45 yuan from the previous period [3] - The daily slaughter volume was 189,578 heads, a decrease of 1486 heads from yesterday. The price difference between different - sized pigs showed some changes, with the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the steel futures market showed a slight decline, and steel procurement was weak. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, and the molten iron output rose due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but hot-rolled coils were still being destocked, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the overall rebar inventory accumulating. Seasonal factors led to a further weakening of the apparent demand for construction steel, and the funds available to downstream construction sites declined. The demand for hot-rolled coils was slightly digested, but steel exports declined in January due to export license issues. On the raw material side, coal mine inventories decreased, and prices soared recently due to market news, driving up steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices. Therefore, steel prices remained volatile. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the futures market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3,290 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,180 yuan (+20 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coils at 3,320 yuan (+20 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coils at 3,220 yuan (+10 yuan) [4] Market Judgments Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: As the futures market corrected, long positions could take profits [6] - Arbitrage: It was recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold short positions on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It was recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects was 60.59%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 54.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The capital availability rate ended a two-week increase and started to decline, mainly due to new projects occupying some funds and the decline in payment collection for existing projects [9] - In December 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China were 76.5 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.19%. The monthly startup rate was 51.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 4.72 percentage points. For excavators, the average monthly working hours were 69.3 hours, and the monthly startup rate was 52.6% [10] Related Attachments - The report includes various charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins of rebar and hot-rolled coils, such as the summary prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, the basis of different contracts in Shanghai, the spreads between different contracts, and the profit margins of different contracts and production processes [15][17][19]