Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December, on the supply side, previously shut - down coal - based plants will resume operations, and new production capacities will be released, but gas - based plants will start to shut down for maintenance. Domestic supply will remain stable at a high level, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. On the demand side, agricultural demand will be generally stable. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and spring fertilizer production will be advanced. Winter storage will continue in the Northeast, and some enterprises will stock up at low prices. With the fourth batch of export quotas released, attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders. Overall, urea prices in December are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5][98]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the domestic urea supply will be high and stable, and the demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [6][98]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In November, the ex - factory prices of domestic urea in major regions fluctuated. The daily production of domestic urea increased to over 200,000 tons, with sufficient overall supply. The impact of exports on the domestic market gradually faded, and the market returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The overall demand was stable, and the ex - factory prices of urea in major regions fluctuated between 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and ended the month at around 1570 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][11]. - The main futures contract of urea fluctuated widely, with the center slightly moving up. In the first half of November, it was affected by the fourth batch of quotas and rebounded continuously, reaching a maximum of 1679 yuan/ton. In the second half, it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals and declined weakly. By the end of the month, the 2601 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. (2) Supply Analysis - New Production Mostly Concentrated in the Second Half of the Year - From January to November 2025, 450,000 tons of new domestic urea plants were put into production. In November, 70,000 tons of new plants were expected to be put into operation. By the end of the year, the total domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach about 8.26 million tons [31][33]. - From January to October, the cumulative domestic urea production reached 5.906 million tons, a significant increase of 430,000 tons or 7.86% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the production in November will be 615,000 tons, and the total production from January to November will reach 6.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 471,000 tons or 7.85% [35]. - In December, coal prices are expected to decline first and then rise. As coal prices fluctuate and urea spot prices rebound, coal - based production profits will slightly expand. The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate [39][46][52]. (3) Export - Related Factors - India's urea import demand may decrease in 2025, but the reduction will be limited. The fourth batch of export quotas has been released, and it is estimated that there will still be about 600,000 tons of exports from November to December [58][63]. (4) Demand Improvement in December - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [69]. - In December, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is not expected to have significant highlights. The capacity utilization rate of China's melamine in the 48th week of 2025 (November 21 - 27) was 60.80% on average, down 1.40 percentage points from the previous week [75][77]. - In December, compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production. Agricultural top - dressing still has some demand, but it is limited. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and the production of spring fertilizer will be advanced. Winter storage in the Northeast will continue to support the prices of large - granular urea [84][90][92]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply will be stable at a high level, and demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [98]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [98].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply has increased more than expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of refinery device changes on supply. The low-sulfur supply gap disturbance has subsided, and the expected low-sulfur output has significantly increased. The low-sulfur winter power generation demand currently has no driving force [4]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain stable and weak in the fourth quarter. Although Russian energy facilities have been attacked, the overall high-sulfur export volume has not been significantly affected. The near - term high - sulfur export from Mexico has significantly rebounded. The fuel feed demand has weakened month - on - month [4]. - For trading strategies, both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are in a weak and volatile state. It is not recommended to go long for now. The low - sulfur cracking has weakened, and the high - sulfur cracking remains stable at a low level. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for options [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply has increased more than expected. The resumption of oilfield operations and exports in South Sudan has eliminated the supply gap disturbance. Refinery device changes in various regions, such as the early and extended maintenance of Dangote refinery's RFCC device and the delay of primary processing device maintenance, are affecting supply. The low - sulfur winter power generation demand lacks driving force [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is expected to remain stable and weak in the fourth quarter. Russian high - sulfur exports are slightly affected by the attacks, and Mexican high - sulfur exports have rebounded. The fuel feed demand has weakened due to the expected early issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral trading: Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are in a weak and volatile state, and it is not recommended to go long [5]. - Arbitrage: Low - sulfur cracking has weakened, and high - sulfur cracking remains stable at a low level [5]. - Options: Take a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: Energy facilities have been continuously attacked, but the overall high - sulfur export volume has not been significantly affected. Some refineries have been damaged, and the export volume has slightly decreased month - on - month. The EU is planning the 20th round of sanctions against Russia [8][9]. - Mexico: The near - term high - sulfur export has significantly rebounded. The Tula coking unit has been put into operation, and the Olmeca refinery has frequently adjusted its maintenance plan. The high - sulfur output is expected to gradually decrease [13]. - Middle East: The US sanctions against Iran continue. After the demand subsides, the high - sulfur export has increased. Iraq plans to supply more than 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [18][19]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feed demand: The expected early issuance of crude oil quotas in 2026 has weakened the high - sulfur feed demand. The actual logistics arrival volume has not increased significantly in the context of the fourth - quarter crude oil quota gap [23][24]. - Marine fuel demand: It provides stable support, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [28]. - Power generation demand: It has completely subsided, especially in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [31]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Pan - Singapore region: The expected excess supply is gradually decreasing with the increase in RFCC device operation rates. The return of the Malaysian Rapid refinery's RFCC device has been delayed, and the Indonesian Balikpapan refinery is planning to expand its gasoline production [34][36]. - Sudan: The low - sulfur crude oil supply was briefly interrupted and then resumed. The low - sulfur crude oil has been redirected to the Pan - Singapore region [37][38]. - Nigeria: The low - sulfur export supply has increased more than expected. The Dangote refinery has adjusted its device maintenance plan, and the low - sulfur export is expected to increase significantly in December [39][41]. - Middle East: The return of the Al - Zour refinery's devices has been delayed, and there is still a short - term supply gap [42][44]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driver. The marine fuel demand is stable, and the power generation economy is inferior to that of natural gas [45]. 3.2.5 China's Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - The bonded low - sulfur export quota in the fourth quarter has tightened. The overall quota in 2025 has slightly decreased compared to 2024. The quota usage rate as of October is about 81%, and the remaining quota in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight but still sufficient [50]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Fuel Oil Spot - There are charts showing the price trends of Brent crude oil, HSFO380, LSFO, and their spreads with Brent crude oil [54][55][57]. 3.3.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Cross - Region and Cross - Period Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as ARA Brent Crack, Singapore high - sulfur M1 - M2, and HSFO380 spot discounts [60][61][63]. 3.3.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Cross - Region and Cross - Variety Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as Singapore LSFO - GO, LSFO M1 - M2, and Singapore low - sulfur spot discounts [67][68]. 3.3.4 Natural Gas - Fuel Oil Price Ratio - The report provides data on the equal - calorific - value price ratio of various fuels, including Singapore 380, Singapore 180, Singapore 0.5%, JKM, GO10ppm ARA, and TTF [70][71]. 3.3.5 Cross - Region Freight Reference - There are charts showing freight rates from Russia to Singapore, Rotterdam to Singapore, etc. [73][74]. 3.3.6 Singapore Bunkering Spreads - There are charts showing spreads such as Singapore HSFO Exwharf - MOPS and Singapore LSFO Exwharf - MOPS [76][77]. 3.3.7 Fuel Oil Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US [79][80][81]. 3.3.8 Northwest Europe Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of gasoline, diesel, and refined oil in ARA [86][87]. 3.3.9 US Gulf Inventory Structure - There are charts showing the inventory trends of gasoline, diesel, Cushing crude oil, and commercial crude oil in the US [89][90].

| X | | --- | | 11 | | --- | | 免责声明 | 能化板块研发报告 供需双弱持续 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月上旬油价震荡维持，沥青成本端较 10 月初有所上升，在现货价 格经历大幅下跌后，炼厂利润回落至近五年同期偏低水平，沥青现货价格企 稳。油价宽幅波动过程中，沥青价格弹性明显偏弱，偏弱震荡。11 月下旬， 油价在过剩预期下承压下行，沥青成本端无上行驱动，原料贴水回落显著。 沥青供需继续走弱，月末供应大幅下降，需求同样降至历史同期低位水平， 低库存对现货价格存在一定支撑。 【市场展望】 短期油价大幅走弱，叠加原料贴水处于低位，沥青成本端支撑有限，但 还需关注美国与委内局势的发展。低供应和低库存对现货价格存在一定支 撑，沥青跌幅弱于原油，炼厂利润小幅回升，现货估值偏高，盘面预计窄幅 震荡。中期来看，市场对于明年的需求暂无乐观预期，等待冬储成本落地， 沥青波动率明显弱于原油，主力合约 BU2601 运行区间预计 2950~3100 元/吨。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：窄幅震荡。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：BU2601 合约卖出虚值看涨期权。 风险提示：美国与委内局势的发展 ...

中国成品油周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 ◼ 市场概况： 供应端，本周全国炼厂开工70.6%，环比下行1.2%，主营炼厂继续降负，上海石化开始检修，镇海炼化检修结束。独立炼厂开工持续上行，金诚 石化全厂检修结束后负荷答复回升，鑫海石化一次装置开始检修。主营汽柴油产量均继续下行，地炼汽柴产量均继续上行。柴汽比上行0.01至 1.43。需求端，本本周市场情绪偏悲观，市场参与者采购积极性下降，汽柴油车单和船单成交情况均有所下滑，汽柴产销率下滑，均未达产销平 衡。库存，商业库存汽柴油继续去库。汽油1023万吨，环比-18万吨（-1.8%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand is at a low level, and iron ore prices are under pressure at high levels [1] 3. Summary by Directory Second Part: Iron Ore Market Data Review - The report presents multiple graphs including the 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different iron ore products, spreads between steel mill cash profits and high - medium - low grade iron ore, and basis differences between the optimal delivery product and different contracts [9][13][16][17] Third Part: Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - Import quantity graphs of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India are shown, as well as global shipment volume graphs of major iron ore producers like VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG [23][26][28][30] - A table shows the incremental changes in global seaborne iron ore supply from 2020 - 2026E for major suppliers. For example, in 2025E compared to 2024, FMG's supply is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and in 2026E compared to 2025E, it is expected to increase by another 5 million tons [43] - Domestic refined iron powder production graphs for different regions in China are presented, including national, North China, Northeast China, and East China [50][52] - **Demand Side** - Graphs related to downstream demand are shown, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate (excluding electricity), 247 steel mill hot metal production, domestic steel demand, construction steel demand, manufacturing steel demand, overseas iron ore consumption, global iron ore consumption, overseas steel demand, and global total steel demand [60][65][67][76][78] - Inventory graphs are presented, including import iron ore port total inventory, import iron ore trade ore total inventory, import iron ore total inventory, and the entire industrial chain iron element total inventory [86][88] Fourth Part: Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content provided in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for steel is supported, and the volatility of steel prices is relatively low [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Price and Basis**: The report presents various price and basis seasonality charts for Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot-rolled coil, including spot prices, 01 contract basis, 01 - 05 contract spreads, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar in the main contract [8][9][14]. - **Production**: It shows statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production from the National Bureau of Statistics, 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, and 89 independent electric arc furnace capacity utilization [28][30]. - **Imports and Exports**: Charts display the import quantities of steel and billets, as well as the monthly export values of steel and billets. Additionally, it presents the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot-rolled coils [36][62][64]. - **Demand and Inventory**: There are charts on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and the billet inventory in the Tangshan area. It also shows the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production [42][44][57][59]. - **Scrap Addition Ratio**: The scrap addition ratio and the proportion of five major steel products to hot metal are presented [40]. 3.2 December Market Outlook - **Profitability**: Charts show the cash profits of East China electric arc furnaces (flat electricity) and North China long-process rebar, as well as the weekly production of rebar and hot-rolled coil [68][69]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It includes charts on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities, month-on-month growth of commercial housing sales area, new housing construction area, housing completion area, and real estate development funds [73][81][83][92]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Charts display the issuance amount of local government special bonds, the loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year-on-year growth of infrastructure fixed asset investment, and the month-on-month growth of cement direct supply for infrastructure and cement delivery for housing construction and civil use [103][108][110]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: It presents the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial enterprise profits and its manufacturing sub - items, month-on-month growth of industrial added value and its sub - items, industrial enterprise finished product inventory and its year-on-year growth, and finished product turnover days [116][118][119]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: Charts show China's monthly automobile production, year-on-year growth of civil steel ship production, monthly output of excavators, monthly output of metal containers, year-on-year growth of refrigerator production, and year-on-year growth of air conditioner production [133][135][137].

| | | | X | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 高硫弱势维持，低硫供应预期增长 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月高硫燃料油市场价格进一步下跌，中东供应增长同时中美进料需 求支撑减弱。新加坡高硫现货贴水在多供应和低成交价下持续下行，11 月 下旬现货贴水下跌至-6 美金/吨，较 10 月末下行约 4 美金/吨；高硫裂解也 较 10 月末下行约 2.8 美金/桶至-8 美金/桶左右水平。 11 月低硫燃料油供应缺口预期驱动由强转弱。上旬 Al-Zour 装置停产 同时 Dangote 汽油装置回归同时南苏丹低硫重质原油出口也受阻，低硫供 应缺口预期增长。下旬，南苏丹低硫原料出口恢复迅速，同时 Dangote 炼 厂汽油装置检修提前至 12 月初且检修期延长，低硫供应缺口预期减弱，低 硫现货贴水回落至 0 值以下水平。 【市场展望】 【策略推荐】 1.单边：偏弱震荡，观望。 2.套利：低硫近月价差关注逢高反套机会。低硫裂解转弱，高硫裂解弱势震荡。 3.期权：无。 风险提示：制裁政策变化、原油配额下发节奏、低硫炼厂负荷变化。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：吴晓蓉 邮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It offers insights into market trends, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting that most markets will experience volatile trends in the short term, with specific market conditions varying [7][9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is characterized by continuous rallies followed by pullbacks, indicating resistance to upward movement. Trading volume is insufficient, and investors are cautious. The index is expected to remain range-bound, waiting for a clear direction. Recommended strategies include reducing positions and waiting on the sidelines, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash-and-carry arbitrage, and using a straddle strategy for options [17][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the recovery momentum is weak. Although the central bank's reverse repurchase operations indicate a slightly supportive stance, the market is still affected by investor behavior and sentiment. Short-term trading strategies suggest lightly betting on rebounds and paying attention to potential cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities [21][22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean market shows a pattern of high yields, with limited upside potential. Domestic soybean meal has significant losses in crushing profit, and future supply is uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal, and adopt a sell wide-straddle strategy for options [24][25][26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing, high production costs provide some support. It is advisable to consider short-term long positions at low prices, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [26][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The high-frequency data of palm oil shows an expected increase in production and weak exports, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oil market, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short-term long and short trading at low and high prices or wait and see [30][31][32]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The U.S. corn market is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term. The supply of domestic corn is relatively tight, and the spot price is strong. It is suggested to short the 01 contract at high prices, wait for the 05 and 07 contracts to pull back, and conduct 01 corn and starch spread narrowing arbitrage [33][34][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall supply pressure remains, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a sell wide-straddle strategy for options [37][38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, but the supply of oil peanuts is abundant, limiting the upside potential of the futures price. It is advisable to short the 01 contract at high prices, conduct 15 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk601-P-7600 options [40][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the January contract at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options [42][43][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is weak, and the apple price is stable. The inventory is increasing, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus fruits. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [47][48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton is entering the market in large quantities, and the supply is increasing, but the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [51][52][53]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is range - bound, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The overall supply and demand of the steel market are relatively balanced, and the cost provides some support. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude for the overall trend and conduct long hot - rolled coil and short rebar spread trading when the spread is low [56][57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment is weak, and the downstream procurement is inactive. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, but the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions and close out the coking coal 1/5 reverse arbitrage [58][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic steel is weak in the medium term. The ore price is expected to be volatile and weak at high levels. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices [62][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Under the trend of production cuts, the price is oscillating at the bottom. The fundamentals and cost of silicon iron and manganese silicon are relatively stable, and the overall valuation is not high. It is recommended to expect bottom - range oscillations and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The scenario of a December interest rate cut has become the baseline again, and gold and silver are expected to maintain a strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and buy out - of - the - money call options [68][69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The listing of platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has driven global market resonance. Platinum is expected to have more upside potential, while palladium is expected to follow platinum's trend but with weaker upward momentum. Recommended strategies include a long - buying approach, long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and a call collar option strategy [73][74][75]. - **Copper**: The expectation of a U.S. interest rate cut has increased, providing support for copper prices. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in 2026. It is recommended to hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton [75][76][78]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been implemented, and the pressure on alumina remains high. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [80][82][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, and the aluminum price fluctuates with the sector. The fundamentals support a relatively strong medium - term price. It is recommended to follow the external market's volatility and wait and see for other strategies [85][86][87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The raw material cost is high, and the demand is differentiated. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price's volatility and wait and see for other strategies [89][90][91]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply may decrease, and the export volume is uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions and be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds [92][93]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of smelting cost support. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost line and wait and see for other strategies [94][96]. - **Nickel**: Production cuts stimulate the nickel price to rebound, but inventory suppresses the upside. The price is in a downward trend. It is recommended to take a short - selling position and sell out - of - the - money call options [97][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the raw material's rebound. The price is restricted by inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - selling position [99][100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is range - bound, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in a timely manner, conduct Si2601, Si2602 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and sell put options [101][102][105]. - **Polysilicon**: The price may rise and then fall in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell when the price rises again and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to buy on a full - scale long - term correction [106][107]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Short - term driving factors are limited, and the oil price remains volatile [16]. - **Asphalt**: The spot market still faces pressure, and the futures price is weakly volatile [16]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase [16]. - **PX & PTA**: The current situation is weak, but the future expectation is strong [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Domestic demand is seasonally declining [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventory is high [16]. - **Propylene**: Supply pressure remains high, and inventory is at a high level [16]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory growth rate of domestic large - scale enterprises has slowed down [16]. - **PVC**: The price has a weak rebound [16]. - **Methanol**: Short - term support comes from gas restrictions in Iran [16]. - **Urea**: The spot price has increased, but trading volume has weakened [16]. - **Pulp**: High inventory suppresses the pulp price [16]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations on log imports [16]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply pressure remains high, and the market has limited rebound momentum [16]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The year - on - year growth rate of tire operating rates has slowed down [16]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: BD gross profit has reached a new low, while BR gross profit has reached a new high [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stockpiling, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3282, up 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3553, up 4; JD09 closed at 3944, up 22. The 01 - 05 spread was - 271, up 53; the 05 - 09 spread was - 391, down 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 35 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.07, unchanged. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.25, down 0.00. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.34, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The main producing area average price was 2.94 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main selling area average price was 3.12 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Prices in different regions had a mix of increases and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2325 yuan/ton, up 8; the average price of bean meal was 3088 yuan/ton, unchanged; the laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, up 0.01 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per feather was - 0.99 yuan, up 1.39 from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The main producing area average price increased slightly, and the main selling area average price remained stable. The national mainstream prices had a mix of increases and stability, with egg prices continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and normal sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The estimated inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chicken Seedling and Culled Chicken Data**: In October, the monthly output of chicken seedlings from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. In the week of November 21, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage and Option Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Coal Daily Report, dated November 27, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao, with从业资格号 F3068848 and investment consulting资格证号 Z0017786 [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] - Data Source: Galaxy Futures [6] Group 2: Market Review - On November 27, the port market showed a weak downward trend, with the price ranges of major coal types generally moving down and the trading atmosphere being cold [2] - The quoted prices of 5500 - kcal, 5000 - kcal, and 4500 - kcal coal in different regions are provided, including ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports [2] Group 3: Important News - From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, setting a record high for the same period; the average daily loading was 186,000 wagons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis Supply - The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 26, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, and the domestic supply is becoming more abundant [4] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on China's demand [4] Demand - This week, the demand performance is mediocre. China's procurement demand has weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement is average, and India's procurement demand has not improved [4] - The recent cold snap has significantly affected power demand, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has increased significantly. In the next 10 days, cold air activities will be frequent, and the heating power demand is expected to further increase, with the daily consumption of downstream power plants likely to continue rising [4] Inventory - Railway transportation has returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30 trains. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 26, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period [4] - The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, while the inventory of inland power plants is at a medium level [4] Overall Situation - In late November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin are stable, with a daily average output of around 4.2 million tons, and the supply is tightening [4] - The inventory of power plants is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, the procurement intensity of coastal power plants has weakened, the port inflow is high, the outflow is low, and the port inventory has increased rapidly [4] - Currently, the temperature across the country is relatively high, the daily consumption of power plants is hovering at a low level, and the coal consumption is average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants is lower than that of the same period, and they continue to make rigid - demand purchases. The port FOB price has weakly corrected [4] - After the safety supervision at the mine mouth is lifted, the coal mine operating rate increases, the output increases, the demand for chemical coal is acceptable, and the mine - mouth price has weakly declined. It is expected that the coal price will be weak in the short term [4]