| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/11/6 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/29 2025/11/4 | | 2025/11/5 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 2025/10/29 2025/11/4 | | 2025/11/5 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | 1138.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | FG05合约 | 1279.0 | 1239.0 | 1231.0 | -48.0 | -8.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1126.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | FG01合约 | 1127.0 | 1105.0 | 1097.0 | -30.0 | -8.0 | | 沙河5mm ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Iron Ore - Newman powder: price 774, daily change -1, weekly change -28, import profit -27.67 [1] - PB powder: price 781, daily change -1, weekly change -24, import profit -18.45 [1] - Macfarlane powder: price 778, daily change -1, weekly change -24, import profit 7.20 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price 733, daily change -1, weekly change -26, import profit -2.81 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: price 737, daily change -8, weekly change -27, import profit -2.25 [1] - Super special powder: price 687, daily change 0, weekly change -28, import profit -5.77 [1] - Carajás powder: price 893, daily change -1, weekly change -33, import profit 2.08 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder: price 821, daily change -1, weekly change -22, import profit -2.04 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price 783, daily change -1, weekly change -23 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price 788, daily change -1, weekly change -23 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: price 888, daily change -2, weekly change -30 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price 722, daily change -1, weekly change -26 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 890, daily change 0, weekly change -28 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price 768, daily change -1, weekly change -24, import profit 10.80 [1] - KUMBA powder: price 840, daily change -1, weekly change -24 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price 622, daily change 0, weekly change -28 [1] - Atlas powder: price 732, daily change -8, weekly change -27 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 1008, daily change -13, weekly change -30 [1] Group 4: Summary of Exchange Contracts - i2601: price 776.0, daily change 0.5, weekly change -28.5, monthly spread -42.0 [1] - i2605: price 754.0, daily change -2.0, weekly change -27.5, monthly spread 22.0 [1] - i2609: price 734.0, daily change -1.5, weekly change -26.0, monthly spread 20.0 [1] - FE01: price 100.61, daily change -1.32, weekly change -2.06, monthly spread -4.32 [1] - FE05: price 98.38, daily change -1.20, weekly change -2.19, monthly spread 2.23 [1] - FE09: price 96.29, daily change -1.21, weekly change -2.29, monthly spread 2.09 [1]

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, while a smaller difference means the opposite [2] Group 2: Volatility Data Visualization - There are charts showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as silver, gold, soybean meal, corn, etc [3] Group 3: Quantile Ranking of Volatility - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [4] - There are rankings of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different options, such as 300 - stock index with a quantile of 0.89, 50ETF with a quantile of 0.49, etc [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices maintained a volatile trend. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC+ members confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Although short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, the pressure on crude oil supply release is relatively high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining a high total production, crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.75, and DUBAI decreased by $0.76. Among refined products, NYMEX RBOB increased by $0.67, and NYMEX HO increased by $3.93. For other related products, SC decreased by 4.40 yuan, and Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $2.57 [3][12] b. Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels, with the previous value being - 4.02 million barrels. BP's CEO stated that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand. TotalEnergies' CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no investment shortage in the oil market. The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the top priority is to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve. Brazil's National Petroleum Agency reported that the country's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [3][4] c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease compared to the same period last year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels. From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic main refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both main and local refineries decreased [4][5] d. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices were volatile. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela drove up oil prices. On Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a production increase in December. According to data, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and the average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased, and refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Despite short - term geopolitical risks, the pressure on crude oil supply release is high, and crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5]

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5150 | 0 | -20 | 5450 | 主力合约 | 5510 | -16 | -54 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 0 | 30 | 5600 | 01合约 | 5510 | -16 | -54 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5200 | -20 | 0 | 5530 | 05合约 | 5584 | -20 | -58 | | | 陕西#72 | 5120 | 0 | -30 | 5420 | 09合约 | 5682 | -8 | -26 | | | 陕西#75 | 5750 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -60 | 16 | 34 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏# ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views - Overall, in the context of continued tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, maintain a strategy of buying on dips for copper; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term due to good domestic apparent demand and potential overseas supply disruptions; for zinc, with poor domestic fundamentals but potential supply reduction at the end of the year, suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between December and February; for nickel and stainless steel, due to weak fundamentals and potential policy support in Indonesia, look for short - selling opportunities; for lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in lead prices and suggest cautious operation; for tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the medium - to - long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations in the short - term and cycle - bottom oscillations in the medium - to - long - term; for lithium carbonate, the price may change in the medium - to - long - term if certain demand conditions are met [1][2][3][7][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market行情受关税谈判进展主导，中美谈判后铜价回落测试10日均线支撑 [1] - 下游开工回落，高价下维持刚需接货，库存小幅去化略超预期，关注废铜政策对精废替代的影响 [1] - 听闻部分矿山在1.1w美金价位入场保值，伦铜近期可能有中等量级交仓到货，短期情绪或转冷静 [1] - 维持回调买入思路，关注伦铜1.03w美金附近支撑，可考虑卖1.03w以下看跌期权或逐步建立虚拟库存 [1] Aluminum - 国内表需好，铝水比例高，铝锭与铝材去库，海外供给有停产扰动推动价格上行 [1] - 中美经贸关系好转，美联储降息后停止缩表，需求边际好转 [1] - 低库存下长期以逢低持有为主 [1] Zinc - 本周锌价震荡上行，供应端国产和进口TC加速下滑，四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走紧，11月火烧云锌锭投产但增量兑现待考察 [2] - 需求端内需季节性疲软，海外欧洲需求一般，部分炼厂生产有阻力，国内社库震荡，海外LME库存去化，出口窗口打开 [2] - 国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端有阶段性减量，价格重心难深跌，短期单边建议观望，关注反套和12 - 02月差正套机会 [2] Nickel - 供应端纯镍产量高位维持，需求端整体偏弱，升水平稳，库存端国内外持续累库，短期基本面偏弱 [3] - 印尼矿端扰动持续，政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [3] Stainless Steel - 供应端钢厂10月排产环比小幅增加，需求端以刚需为主，成本方面镍铁、铬铁价格维持，库存高位维持 [7] - 印尼政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [7] Lead - 本周铅下游减产致铅价下跌，供应侧报废量同比偏弱，再生利润恢复激励复产但进度慢，精矿开工增加但供应紧张 [8] - 需求侧电池开工率下滑，成品库存高，需求有走弱预期，精废价差变化，再生复产出料 [8] - 预计下周内外铅价在17200 - 17500区间窄幅震荡，建议观望再生复产和仓单增加情况谨慎操作 [8] Tin - 本周锡价震荡，供应端矿端加工费低位，云锡检修结束，海外佤邦产出有分歧，印尼短期部分停产 [10] - 需求端高价下由刚性支撑，下游接单心理价位提高，海外LME库存低位震荡恢复 [10] - 国内基本面短期供需双弱，短期跟随宏观情绪，若宏观有系统性风险锡价下行空间大，中长期贴近成本线逢低持有 [10] Industrial Silicon - 本周新疆头部企业开工稳定，后续川滇开工数量将减少，枯水期供给环比下滑，但Q4供需处于平衡偏宽松状态，月度累库约3万吨 [11] - 短期价格预计震荡运行，中长期价格走势预计以季节性边际成本为锚的周期底部震荡为主 [11] Lithium Carbonate - 本周五受江西矿山复产传闻影响价格快速回落，原料端海外矿端挺价，市场可流通精矿现货偏紧 [11] - 锂盐端企业惜售，市场低价货源少，期现商难补库，下游在价格上行时观望，回调后买盘增强 [11] - 基差调整有限，成交集中在01 - 400至01 + 0元区间，若储能需求高景气且动力需求稳定，中长期格局转变时点可能在未来1 - 2年出现 [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the China - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Daily Changes in Civil Gas and Ether - After Carbon Four**: On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4315 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (-5). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (+20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 76 (+90), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 96 (+18). FEI was 503 (-15) and CP was 471 (-11) dollars/ton [1] - **IPG Main Contract Data**: The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), South China 4400 (-5), and Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 hands (+1778) [1] - **External Market and Related Price Data**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI monthly spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Industry Conditions - **Profit and Inventory**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1] - **Operating Rate and Equipment Status**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhu will undergo maintenance, while Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 4.086, UK 4.424, France 3.437, Germany 2.653, Italy 3.399, Spain 3.158, Switzerland 0.087, Greece 3.275, Japan 1.664, Brazil 6.102, China 1.793, South Korea 3.086, Australia 4.350, New Zealand 4.101 [2] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 3.577, UK 3.778, Germany 1.994, Japan 0.936, Italy 2.170, South Korea 2.661, Australia 3.616 [2] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.401, South Africa zar 17.512, South Korean won 1440.400, Thai baht 32.550, Malaysian ringgit 4.197 [2] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore RMB 7.130, off - shore RMB 7.135, RMB central parity rate 7.089, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.983 [2] - Major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6771.550, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47085.240, Nasdaq 23348.640, Mexican stock index 62390.730, UK stock index 9714.960, France CAC 8067.530, Germany DAX 23949.110, Spanish stock index 16036.400, Japanese Nikkei 51497.200, Hang Seng Index 25952.400, Shanghai Composite Index 3960.186, Taiwan stock index 28116.560, South Korean stock index 4121.740, Indian stock index 8241.911, Thai stock index 1298.600, Malaysian stock index 1623.500, Australian stock index 9098.190, emerging - economy stock index 1393.380 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3960.19, CSI 300 4618.70, SSE 50 3012.97, ChiNext 3134.09, CSI 500 7210.83 [3] - Percentage changes: A - shares - 0.41%, CSI 300 - 0.75%, SSE 50 - 0.11%, ChiNext - 1.96%, CSI 500 - 1.67% [3] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 14.17, SSE 50 11.90, CSI 500 32.85, S&P 500 28.15, Germany DAX 19.81 [3] - Month - on - month changes: CSI 300 - 0.03, SSE 50 0.06, CSI 500 - 0.54, S&P 500 - 0.34, Germany DAX - 0.15 [3] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.53, Germany DAX 2.39 [3] - Month - on - month changes: S&P 500 0.07, Germany DAX 0.05 [3] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 1494.83, Main board - 996.44, ChiNext - 379.93, CSI 300 - 239.09 [3] - 5 - day averages: A - shares - 667.86, Main board - 481.75, ChiNext - 120.57, CSI 300 - 107.90 [3] Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19157.58, CSI 300 5051.78, SSE 50 1310.58, Small and medium - sized board 3848.70, ChiNext 4768.17 [4] - Month - on - month changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 1913.73, CSI 300 - 524.25, SSE 50 - 35.79, Small and medium - sized board - 310.45, ChiNext - 589.85 [4] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 29.70, IH - 4.77, IC - 116.23 [4] - Basis spreads: IF - 0.64%, IH - 0.16%, IC - 1.61% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 108.66, TF2303 106.03, T2306 108.40, TF2306 105.99 [4] - Percentage changes: T2303 - 0.02%, TF2303 - 0.02%, T2306 - 0.01%, TF2306 - 0.01% [4] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3621%, R007 1.4584%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5940% [4] - Daily changes: R001 - 10.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M - 1.00 BP [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on November 5, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Group 2: Futures Market Analysis Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1909.9 with a 3.14% increase, EC2602 at 1593.7 with a 0.09% increase, EC2604 at 1190.0 with a 0.47% increase, EC2606 at 1411.0 with a 0.75% increase, EC2608 at 1485.0 with a 0.10% increase, and EC2610 at 1135.0 with a 0.38% decrease [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504 spread was 719.9, up 52.6 from the previous day and 123.7 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 316.2, up 56.7 from the previous day and 112.8 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 spread was 403.7, down 4.1 from the previous day and up 10.9 week - on - week [2] Group 3: Spot Market Analysis Spot Indices - SCFI (European Line) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period; NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Quotes - In early November, PA's price dropped to $1700 - 1900, GEMIN to $2100 - 2200, and OA to $2250, with an average of about $2050 (equivalent to 1430 points on the disk) [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategies - The 12 - contract has multiple positive drivers but high valuation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - The 02 - contract's valuation is hard to anchor, and it is expected to follow the 12 - contract in the next month [3] - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract, and it is recommended to sell on rallies considering future supply pressure, off - season factors, and potential resumption of shipping [3] Group 5: News and Events - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement; on November 2, the Houthi armed forces said they would respond strongly to any Israeli aggression [5] - On November 4, the MSK price increase news and the price increase letters from HPL and MSC drove the main contract to strengthen significantly, and the far - month contracts were slightly driven up by the near - month contracts [2][3] - On November 5, MSC and HPL issued price increase letters for the second half of November, announcing price increases to $3000 and $3100 per FEU respectively [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - SP主力合约收盘价2025年11月4日为5288.00 较上一日跌0.33924% 折美元价650.56 山东银星基差212 江浙沪银星基差227 [3] - 以13%增值税计算 加拿大金狮CFR港口美元价780 山东地区人民币价6200 进口利润-145.57 雄狮CFR港口美元价730 山东地区人民币价5400 进口利润-543.29 智利银星CFR信用证90天港口美元价680 山东地区人民币价5500 进口利润-41.01 [4] - 2025年10月29日至11月4日 全国及山东地区针叶浆 阔叶浆 本色浆 化机浆均价无变化 文化用纸 包装纸 生活用纸价格指数无变化 但双胶 双铜 白卡利润率有变化 生活利润率无变化 [4] - 2025年11月4日针叶阔叶价差1250.00 针叶本色价差100 针叶化机价差1700 针叶废纸价差3924 [4]