油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/03 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： SGS：马来西亚11月棕榈油出口量环比减少39.21% 船货检验机构SGS发布的数据显示，马来西亚2025年11月棕榈油产品出口量为779,392吨，较上月的1,282,036吨减 少39.21%。 印度11月棕榈油进口增加，因豆油及葵花籽油购买量下降 五家经销商表示，印度11月份棕榈油进口量略有上升，原因是价格下跌促使炼油商增加购买棕榈油，同时减少购买 更昂贵的豆油和葵花籽油。 据经销商估计，11月份棕榈油进口量环比增长4.6%，至63万吨。与此同时，据经销商估计，豆油进口量下降12%， 至40万吨，葵花籽油进口量下降44%，至14.5万吨，为两年低点。 数据显示，由于豆油和葵花籽油进口减少，印度11月份食用油进口总量较上月下滑11.5%，至118万吨，为七个月低 点。 主要食用油进口商PatanjaliFoodsLtd副总裁AashishAcharya称，印度买家正在增加近一个月船期的棕榈油的购买 量，因为棕榈油比竞争对手豆油每吨便宜近100美元。他表示："12月份，棕榈油进口量可能进一步上升至75万吨。" 据经销商估计， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report date: December 3, 2025 [3] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Data Futures Data - BR main contract (12): Price on December 2 was 10,685, with a daily change of 375 and a weekly change of 325 [4] - Open interest: On December 2, it was 45,603, a daily decrease of 3,201 and a weekly decrease of 17,427 [4] - Trading volume: On December 2, it was 171,287, a daily increase of 47,471 and a weekly increase of 42,191 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity: On December 2, it was 15,490, a daily decrease of 350 and a weekly increase of 110 [4] - Virtual - to - physical ratio: On December 2, it was 14.72, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] Basis and Spread Data - Butadiene rubber (BR) basis: - 275 on December 2, a daily decrease of 225 [4] - Styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) basis: - 275 on December 2, a weekly decrease of 175 [4] - 12 - 01 spread: - 25 on December 2, a weekly decrease of 25 [4] - 01 - 02 spread: - 15 on December 2, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4] - RU - BR spread: 4675 on December 2, a daily decrease of 265 and a weekly decrease of 160 [4] - NR - BR spread: 1545 on December 2, a daily decrease of 315 and a weekly decrease of 260 [4] Spot and Price - related Data - Shandong market price: 10,500 on December 2, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - Transfar market price: 10,400 on December 2, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price: 10,600 on December 2, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: 1325, no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: 1600, no daily or weekly change [4] Profit Data - Spot processing profit: 110 on December 2, a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 181 [4] - Import profit: - 592 on December 2, a daily increase of 100 [4] - Export profit: 1600 on December 2, a daily decrease of 87 and a weekly decrease of 107 [4] Group 3: Other Product Data SBR Data - Shandong market price: 7500 on December 2, a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 275 [4] - Jiangsu market price: 7250 on December 2, a daily increase of 225 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price: 7100, no daily or weekly change [4] - CFR China: 820, no daily change and a weekly increase of 20 [4] - Ethylene cracking profit: Data not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit: - 1564 on December 2, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 225 [4] - Import profit: 547 on December 2, a daily increase of 225 and a weekly increase of 77 [4] - Export profit: - 1154 on December 2, a daily decrease of 196 and a weekly decrease of 418 [4] - SBR production profit: 1563 on December 2, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] BD - Related Profit Data - C4 extraction profit: Data not available [4] - ABS production profit: Data not available [4] - SBS production profit: - 302, no daily or weekly change [4]

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焦煤日报 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 沙河驿进口主焦 A11，V26，S0.7，G80，Y15，CSR60 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏中挥发 1900/1/4 免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/12/03 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/11/26 | 3210 | 3270 | 3250 | 3260 | 3480 | 3360 | | 2025/11/27 | 3210 | 3220 | 3210 | 3250 | 3480 | 3360 | | 2025/11/28 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3250 | 3510 | 3390 | | 2025/12/01 | 3250 | 3310 | 3290 | 3310 | 3560 | 3430 | | 2025/12/02 | 3250 | 3320 | 3300 | 3310 | 3560 | 3440 | | 变化 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market Information - Different varieties of iron ore have different price changes. For example, Newman powder is priced at 794, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2 [1]. - Import profits also vary by variety. For instance, the import profit of Newman powder is -13.57 [1]. - Domestic ore, such as Tangshan iron concentrate powder, is priced at 1013, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1 [1]. Group 4: Summary of Futures Market Information - For exchange contracts, i2601 is priced at 800.5, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly increase of 6.5 [1]. - The monthly spreads and their changes are also presented. For example, the monthly spread of i2601 is -49.0, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 5.4 [1]. - The prices and changes of foreign exchange contracts like FE01 are also included. FE01 is priced at 103.57, with a daily increase of 1.37 and a weekly increase of 1.74 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, maintain high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high, far - month production is limited, PX pattern is good, focus on buying low for positive spread and expanding processing fees opportunities [2] - For MEG, supply reduction and high polyester operation may slow down inventory accumulation, coal - made profit is low, valuation compression space is limited, focus on short - term selling put options; long - term pattern is weak due to new device launch and warehouse receipt pressure [4] - For polyester staple fiber, short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export, but long - term pattern may weaken as downstream enters off - season and new devices are approaching, current processing fee is neutral, focus on warehouse receipt situation [4] - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping, strategy is to wait and see [4] PTA - PTA spot average daily trading basis for 2601 is - 34, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarts [2] - Near - end TA device restarts, operation rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, spot processing fee weakens; PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, isomerization benefit is stable, US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread shrinks [2] MEG - MEG spot basis for 01 is around - 2, Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts [4] - Near - end domestic coal - chemical devices restart, operation rate rises, overseas devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of the week with low arrival forecast, basis weakens, coal - made profit improves slightly [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - Spot price is around 6347, market basis for 01 is around - 100, no device maintenance information [4] - Near - end device operation is stable, operation rate is 97.5%, sales improve slightly, inventory decreases. Downstream yarn operation rate is stable, raw material inventory decreases and finished product inventory increases, profit is maintained [4] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - There are daily and weekly changes in various prices such as spot prices of Thai standard and mixed rubber, Shanghai full - latex, etc. [4] - There are also changes in spreads and processing profits, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 41,400 [4] Styrene - There are daily changes in prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and its downstream products such as PS, ABS [7] - There are also changes in Asian spreads and domestic profits of styrene, EPS, PS, ABS [7]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/03 | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/11/26 | 5615 | 5470 | 5480 | 236 | 268 | 448 | 7876 | | 2025/11/27 | 3086 | 5470 | 5455 | -2317 | - | - | 258 | | 2025/11/28 | 5615 | 5470 | 5455 | 215 | 248 | 428 | 183 | | 2025/12/01 | 5585 | 5470 | 5425 | 180 | 349 | 529 | 183 | | 2025/12/02 | 5565 | 5470 | 5415 | 183 | 267 | 446 | - | | 变化 | -20 | 0 | -10 | 3 | -82 | -83 | - | 【行情分析】： 白糖：短期郑糖受进口配额 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is weighted by the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Chart - The chart shows the IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300股指, 50ETF, 1000股指, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means high current implied volatility, and a low quantile means low [5] - The document presents the implied volatility quantile rankings and historical volatility quantile rankings of different varieties such as PTA, 50ETF, 300股指, etc [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The explosion at the CPC core berth over the weekend led to an interruption in exports on the 28th and 29th, which is expected to impact short - term crude oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, and the crude oil calendar spread is expected to rebound. However, the specific impact assessment still depends on whether the attacks continue. - The market expects OPEC to maintain the decision to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Global on - land inventories have increased, while the total on - land and water inventories have slightly decreased. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories have increased, as have gasoline and diesel inventories, while diesel inventories in Singapore and ARA have significantly decreased. - Recently, the refinery operations in Europe and the United States have been boosted, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have entered specific details. In the short term, the European diesel crack spread has declined significantly due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still provide support. It is expected that there is still room for the gasoline - diesel price spread to repair downward. - In the fourth quarter, the Brent price range is $55 - 65 per barrel. The short - term valuation deviation is not high, and a high - selling strategy is maintained. Recently, attention should be paid to whether the CPC oil export interruption continues, and the short - term Brent calendar spread is likely to strengthen [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: From November 25 to December 1, 2025, WTI increased by $0.77, BRENT increased by $0.79, and DUBAI decreased by $0.67. Other related spreads and differentials also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Domestic Products**: From November 25 to December 1, 2025, OMAN increased by $0.52, domestic gasoline decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and domestic diesel decreased by 44 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Products**: There were also changes in the prices and spreads of Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, and other products during this period [3]. 3.2 News - **Demand for Russian Oil**: The CEO of VTB Bank stated that the global demand for Russian oil is strong, and customers including India will find ways to purchase Russian oil [3]. - **Shipping Incidents**: A third oil tanker related to Russia exploded at sea. The "Mersin" tanker's engine room was flooded, but the hull was stable, the crew was safe, and no pollution accident occurred [3]. - **OPEC+ Production Decision**: Energy research company Rystad Energy analyzed that OPEC+'s decision to maintain stable oil production is likely to be affected by geopolitical uncertainties involving Russia and Venezuela. The organization is closely monitoring the peace talks to end the Ukraine conflict and the escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, both of which may pose risks to global oil supply [4]. - **Pipeline Loading**: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium announced that a docking point has resumed crude oil loading [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **U.S. Inventories**: - API data for the week ending November 21 showed a decrease of 1.859 million barrels in crude oil inventories, an increase of 0.539 million barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of 0.753 million barrels in refined oil inventories compared to the previous period. - EIA data for the week ending November 21 showed a decrease of 560,000 barrels per day in U.S. crude oil exports, a decrease of 20,000 barrels in domestic crude oil production, an increase of 2.774 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves (a 0.65% increase), a 0.05% decrease in the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products compared to the same period last year, an increase of 498,000 barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory (a 0.12% increase), and an increase of 486,000 barrels per day in commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Inventories**: From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a 1.75% decrease, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a 4.25% decrease. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [6]. - **Fujairah Inventories**: As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels. Light distillate inventories decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [6].