Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, with fundamental factors and geopolitical sanctions risks diverging. The US President Trump called on European countries to "stop buying" Russian oil again over the weekend. Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the sanctions pushed by the UK, France, and Germany. The EU's sanctions against Russia target the shadow fleet, Russian banks, and Russian oil buyers. Affected by drone attacks, Russia's refined oil exports dropped significantly, while its net crude oil exports remained high. Iran's crude oil exports did not decline. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with the absolute level similar to that in 2019, the highest in the past five years. In September's preliminary data, OPEC's net crude oil exports rebounded sharply. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased significantly. Global refinery profits were divided, with US refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery overall operations increasing, and European and American refinery operations decreasing. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous levels, and the fundamental situation will turn to the off - season. The medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia and Iran. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Goldman Sachs believes that it is "unlikely" for the EU to comprehensively ban the import of Russian oil because some member states such as Hungary and Slovakia are highly dependent on Russian oil supplies and "lack the motivation to support this measure." Even if implemented, the impact on the global supply - demand balance will be limited as it will only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global oil supply [3] - Trump promised Arab leaders not to allow Israel to annex the West Bank. About 700,000 Palestinians have evacuated from Gaza City to southern Gaza. Israel's southern city of Eilat was attacked by drones, and the Houthi armed forces confirmed the attack. The US Middle East envoy introduced Trump's 21 - point peace plan for the Middle East and Gaza and expected a breakthrough in the Gaza issue in the coming days [4] - A Russian refinery suspended oil processing after a drone attack on September 20. EU officials proposed to impose tariffs on Russian oil to bypass the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia. The measure is a trade measure, not a sanctions package, so it does not require full consensus to pass [4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of September 12, the US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From September 12 to 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic production of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories of both also increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries strengthened fluctuantly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5] - In the week of September 12, the US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels (a decrease of 2.19%), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase compared with the same period last year, and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels (an increase of 0.12%) [12] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels. The impact of geopolitical sanctions and fundamental factors diverged. In the medium - term, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and Iran. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3783.80 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Silver's latest price is 44.33 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1413.00 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1176.00 with a change of 0.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 63.41 with a change of 0.00 [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 9966.00 with a change of -1.00 [3] - The latest Dollar Index is 97.24 [3] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.18 [3] - The latest Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.35 [3] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 147.66 [3] - The latest US 10 - year TIPS is 1.75 [3] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16383.70 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1161.80 with a change of 12.76 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 996.85 with a change of -3.72 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15469.12 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1248.26 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: September 25, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The prices of asphalt futures contracts (BU10 - BU03) showed fluctuations from August 26 to September 24. For example, BU10 decreased from 3523 on August 26 to 3392 on September 24 [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume on September 24 was 242,519, a decrease of 37,956 compared to the previous period, while the open interest was 413,842, a decrease of 12,020 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Market prices in different regions had various changes. Shandong's market price dropped from 3540 to 3500, and East China's decreased from 3720 to 3560 [4]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between regions also changed. For instance, the difference between Shandong and East China increased from -180 to -60 [4]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis values of different regions and contracts showed different trends. For example, Shandong's basis (+80) decreased by 29 to 168 [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 11, 10 - 12) also changed. The 10 - 11 spread decreased by 11 to 16 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread was -11 on September 24, a significant change compared to previous values [4]. - **Profit**: Profits of different types of refineries and import profits also changed. For example, the asphalt - Marrow profit decreased by 59 to -77 [4]. Related Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Brent crude oil price increased from 66.6 on September 23 to 67.6 on September 24 [4]. - **Other Products**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in Shandong also had minor fluctuations [4][5].

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/25 | | | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 日变化 | | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 106.20 | -0.55 | 0.30 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 0 | -3 | | 845.5 | 104.05 | 0.15 | 0.50 | -36.56 | | | | PB粉 | 793 | -1 | -2 | | 841.5 | 106.80 | 0.10 | 0.55 | -18.08 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 783 | 0 | -1 | | 855.2 | 102.75 | 0.10 | 0.45 | -8.93 | | | | 金布巴 | 764 | -1 | -2 | | 858.1 | 99.95 | 0.10 | -0.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 10, the cargo receiving was still weak. After the market closed, MSK raised the post - holiday weekly freight rate to $1800 (+$400). Other shipping companies may follow suit before the holiday. However, the purpose of this price increase is to stabilize prices and encourage downstream shippers to book cabins before the holiday, not a real price increase. The 10 - contract can be shorted depending on the subsequent upward trend [1]. - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcements, high operation space for shipping companies to slow down and suspend voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the 12 - contract is not low, but funds may be more concentrated on this contract. It is recommended to take a long - allocation approach in the short term. The 02 - contract may have higher cost - effectiveness than the 12 - contract, and its settlement price may be higher due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February 17, 2026). The 04 - contract currently has a high valuation and is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term as an off - season contract, but its low liquidity may be easily disturbed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1114.4, 1696.5, 1588.1, 1261.0, and 1445.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.31%, 4.50%, 3.42%, 2.14%, and 1.69% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602, 10 - 12, and 02 - 04 were - 582.1, 108.4, - 582.1 (- 58.7), and 327.1 (+26.1) respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 10 - contract was around 95 points [1]. Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Changes**: From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the TEU index decreased by 8.06%, the SCH index decreased by 8.84%, the CCFI (European Line) index decreased by 4.31%, and the NCFI index decreased by 7.65% [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation increased from $1500 to $1570, PA Alliance's was $1550 - $1600, and OA Alliance's was $1600 - $1720 [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK's was $1400, PA's was $1300 - $1500 (YML's $1300 was the lowest of the year), and OA's was $1400 - $1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: MSK's opening quotation was $1800 (a week - on - week increase of $400), CMA's was $2520 (+$900), and HPL's was $2035 (+$600) [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently showed wide - range oscillations. The domestic FU showed an oscillating and slightly bullish trend in the short term. The low - sulfur cracking spread rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level compared to the same period. The month - spread was weakly sorted. The domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [3][4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by the reshaping of logistics and the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases have supported the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space, and the 380 cracking spread is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. - This week, the LU market remained weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas was in line with expectations, and the MF0.5 basis of the outer market oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, one can buy on dips to widen the domestic and foreign spreads of LU, and pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/22) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 383.35 | 386.97 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 434.21 | 427.29 | 3.12 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.64 | - 4.97 | 0.17 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 677.55 | 664.85 | 5.62 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 243.34 | - 237.56 | - 2.50 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.18 | 24.40 | - 0.91 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.86 | 40.32 | - 2.66 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 396.06 | 405.15 | 10.91 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 407.26 | 414.65 | 12.15 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 472.28 | 468.56 | 5.45 | | Singapore GO M1 | 88.34 | 88.66 | 2.00 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.97 | - 3.17 | 0.57 | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | - 181.44 | - 187.52 | - 9.35 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 397.47 | 406.82 | 11.62 | | FOB VLSFO | 472.07 | 466.07 | 4.92 | | 380 Basis | 0.60 | 1.45 | 0.45 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.5 | 6.9 | - 2.8 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.7 | 9.4 | - 0.5 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2798 | 2860 | 101 | | FU 05 | 2754 | 2808 | 90 | | FU 09 | 2698 | 2726 | 53 | | FU 01 - 05 | 44 | 52 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 56 | 82 | 37 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 100 | - 134 | - 48 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3385 | 3367 | 42 | | LU 05 | 3368 | 3347 | 45 | | LU 09 | 3322 | 3319 | 33 | | LU 01 - 05 | 17 | 20 | - 3 | | LU 05 - 09 | 46 | 28 | 12 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 63 | - 48 | - 9 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of devices, the de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, the long - term inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production has a slight reduction in load, coal - based production remains stable, and overseas devices have both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, the port may gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the device start - up rate has increased, production and sales have improved, and inventory has decreased. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the yarn end may slow down, but the start - up rate remains high due to good spot benefits, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its related products, the prices and production profits of relevant products have changed, and the start - up rates of some products such as EPS and ABS also show certain trends [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device reduced load, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased slightly, polyester load was basically stable, inventory increased slightly, the basis weakened, and spot processing fees were slightly repaired. PX domestic start - up rate decreased, overseas devices operated stably, PXN decreased month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced load, coal - based start - up remained stable, overseas devices had both maintenance and restart. Arrivals remained stable while shipments were dull, and port inventory increased slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, the basis weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio decreased [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their device loads, and the start - up rate increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Situation**: Production and sales improved month - on - month, inventory continued to decrease. At the demand end, the start - up rate of the yarn end remained stable, raw material stocking increased, and finished product inventory decreased month - on - month, but the benefits were weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber, showed certain fluctuations, and the price of Thai cup rubber was relatively stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national explicit inventory was stable [1]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and other products changed daily, and the production profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on September 25, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, etc., to help investors understand the price relationships and profit situations in different trading scenarios [1][4][5] 3) Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80025, the LME price was 9935, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.12, with a loss of 693.47, and a profit of 317.82 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21830, the LME price was 2941, and the ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a loss of 3318.32 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20680, the LME price was 2635, and the ratio was 7.85. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.40, with a loss of 1467.29 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120450, the LME price was 15121, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.20, with a loss of 2283.59 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16925, the LME price was 1960, and the ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.84, with a loss of 377.93 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 25, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 30, 10, 20, and 0 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 502, 901, 1310, and 1719 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 20, 35, 50, and 75, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 330, 449, and 567 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 20, 20, 35, and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 330, 445, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 25, 50, 35, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 316, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 720, 900, 1160, and 1400 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1360, and the theoretical spread was 5635 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.65, 3.86, 4.68, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.52, 3.90, 5.17, 0.90, 1.33, and 0.68 [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 75 and - 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 363 and 811 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 159 and 286 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 115 and 140, and the theoretical spreads were 168 and 281 [5]

Report Overview - The report is a scrap steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on September 25, 2025 [1] Price Data - The report provides scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from September 18 to September 24, 2025 [2] - The prices in East China were 2258 on September 18, remained the same on September 19, increased to 2261 on September 22, 2263 on September 23, and stayed at 2263 on September 24 [2] - In North China, the prices were 2332 on September 18, 2330 on September 19, 2333 on September 22, 2331 on September 23, and 2330 on September 24 with a -1 change in the环比 [2] - Central China's prices were 2081 from September 18 - 22, increased to 2083 on September 23 and remained the same on September 24 [2] - South China's prices were 2261 on September 18, 2259 on September 19, 2261 on September 22, 2262 on September 23 and 24 [2] - Northeast China's prices were 2290 on September 18 - 19, increased to 2293 on September 22 - 24 [2] - Southwest China's prices were 2170 on September 18, 2168 on September 19, 2170 on September 22, and 2171 on September 23 - 24 [2] - The环比 changes for all regions were 0 except for North China which was -1 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].