Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, causing a wait - and - see attitude in the market. Spot prices at ports are weakening, pulling down the futures prices. However, due to limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp decline. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the background of increased production and lower costs, and may turn around when domestic consumption improves or farmers are reluctant to sell [2]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. High inventory and low downstream demand pressure prices. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [2]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. Uncertainty in Brazil's sugar production remains. Domestically, following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving and lower processing sugar prices, there is pressure on the futures [2]. - **Cotton**: The market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. - **Eggs**: Reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand, high supply, and high cold - storage egg inventory suppress egg prices. Although there is a recent spot price rebound, it is still restricted, and the progress of culling laying hens is slowed [6]. - **Apples**: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the final production after the bag - removing season [9]. - **Pigs**: The market is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year and seasonal support this year, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Near - term contracts are adjusting for premium, and far - term contracts still have a slight premium expectation, waiting for spot price verification [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions were stable or slightly decreased, and starch prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, trade profit, and import profit of corn changed, and the processing profit of starch was negative [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve corn auctions had a slight improvement in trading volume. New - season corn listing and market sentiment affected prices. Starch producers may sell at lower prices to clear inventory [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, spot prices in some regions were relatively stable, and the basis and import profit changed. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [2][13]. - **Market Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil and domestic imported sugar arrivals affected the market [2]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton decreased. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn and the 32S spinning profit changed [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is waiting for demand to pick up [3]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, egg prices in some production areas were stable or increased slightly, and the basis increased. The prices of substitute products changed slightly [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Reduced stocking demand and high inventory affected prices, and the recent spot price rebound was restricted [6]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, the spot prices of Shandong apples were stable, and the national inventory decreased. The basis of different contracts changed [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: Production in different regions has different situations, and consumption is in the off - season [9]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, pig prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy expectations and seasonal factors co - exist with mid - term supply pressure [9].

| 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/05 | 2980 | 2590 | 8640 | 9470 | 9960 | | 2025/09/08 | 2980 | 2580 | 8600 | 9410 | 10030 | | 2025/09/09 | 2970 | 2590 | 8600 | 9420 | 10050 | | 2025/09/10 | 2960 | 2590 | 8520 | 9170 | 10030 | | 2025/09/11 | 2970 | 2610 | 8510 | 9260 | 10050 | 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/12 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 9月4日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增62.25万吨 USDA出口销售报告显示，9月4日止当周，美国2025/2026年度（9月1日开始）大豆出口销售净增54.11万吨，从 2024/2025年度结转而来的销售总计76.7万吨。 截至8月31日的出口装船为40.66万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The start - up of PTA devices has rebounded slightly, polyester load has increased, inventory has continued to decline, basis has weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fees have declined. PX domestic start - up is stable, overseas devices are restarted, PXN has weakened month - on - month. Although TA inventory continues to decline, its structure and efficiency are still weakening. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and subsequent new production, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - month. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level, and PX supply is gradually recovering. One can pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [1]. - MEG: Recently, domestic oil - based production has increased the load, coal - based start - up has slightly declined, the overall load has decreased, overseas maintenance has increased. At the beginning of the week, port inventory continued to decline, and the arrival of goods within the week has rebounded. Downstream inventory levels have decreased, and the basis has strengthened month - on - month. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - month due to the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices. The pattern is not bad, and the profit level is also considerable. It is expected to fluctuate in a relatively wide range. One should pay attention to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [8]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Recently, the start - up of Xin凤鸣, Times Hollow, and Zhongtai has increased, and the start - up rate has reached 93.9%. Sales have weakened month - on - month, and inventory has remained stable month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has slightly increased, raw material inventory has rebounded, and finished product inventory has continued to accumulate, with weak efficiency. In the future, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end may slow down after the accumulation of finished product inventory. It is expected that the start - up will remain high under the good spot efficiency of staple fiber, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Natural Rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable at an absolute level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device have been restarted [1]. - **Market Data**: From September 5th to 11th, 2025, the price of PTA internal - market spot fluctuated, the PX processing difference changed slightly, and the polyester production and sales rate also had certain fluctuations [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device, Inner Mongolia Jianyuan's 260,000 - ton device, and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device have been under maintenance [8]. - **Market Data**: From September 5th to 11th, 2025, the prices of MEG in various markets such as the East China market, far - month market, and coal - based market have changed to different degrees, and the profit and load have also shown corresponding changes [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Recently, Xin凤鸣, Times Hollow, and Zhongtai have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has reached 93.9% [8]. - **Market Data**: From September 5th to 11th, 2025, the prices of various types of staple fibers and related products such as pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn have changed to different degrees, and the load and profit have also shown corresponding changes [8]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From September 5th to 11th, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber such as Shanghai full - latex, Shanghai 3L, and Thai cup rubber have changed to different degrees, and the price difference and processing profit have also shown corresponding changes [8]. Other Chemical Products - **Ethylene, Pure Benzene, Styrene, etc.**: From September 5th to 11th, 2025, the prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), styrene (East China), etc. have changed to different degrees, and the production profits of related products such as ABS, EPS, and PS have also shown corresponding changes [8].

沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/12 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/09/05 2226 2060 2254 2281 2321 原点 2285 2025/09/08 2231 2326 2066 2261 2285 2025/09/09 2237 2331 2071 2269 2025/09/10 2238 2331 2070 2266 2285 2025/09/115 咨 2241 ~ 2330 原占 2071 2267 版 2285 环比 3 -1 1 1 0 长流程日耗 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品因H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 短 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Market - On September 11, the closing price of the main contract was 11,652, down 65 from the previous day and 155 from the previous week; the open interest was 22,243, down 1,100 from the previous day and 4,371 from the previous week; the trading volume was 62,200, down 2,019 from the previous day and 68,304 from the previous week [3] - The warrant quantity was 13,670, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,130 from the previous week; the long - short ratio was 8.14, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 from the previous week [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber was 15 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week; the basis of butadiene rubber (two major oil companies) was 245, up 65 from the previous day and down 45 from the previous week [3] - The 8 - 9 month spread was 0 from the previous day and down 240 from the previous week; the 9 - 10 month spread was 65 from the previous day and up 175 from the previous week [3] Price and Profit - The Shandong market price was 11,750, down 50 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,550, down 150 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,515, unchanged from the previous day and up 15 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3] - The spot processing profit was - 115, up 27 from the previous day and down 48 from the previous week; the on - screen processing profit was - 210, up 12 from the previous day and down 53 from the previous week [3] - The import profit was - 84,515, down 46 from the previous day and up 1,591 from the previous week; the export profit was - 82, up 43 from the previous day and 224 from the previous week [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price was 9,475, down 75 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,275, down 75 from the previous day and 75 from the previous week [3] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,250, down 100 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; CFR China was 1,095, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3] Processing and Profit - The carbon four extraction profit data was not available; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 111, down 75 from the previous day and 75 from the previous week [3] - The import profit was 314, down 75 from the previous day and 63 from the previous week; the export profit was - 920, up 65 from the previous day and 234 from the previous week [3] Group 4: Downstream Product Profit Data - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 210, up 12 from the previous day and down 53 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 1,038, unchanged from the previous day and down 88 from the previous week [3] - The ABS production profit was - 94, unchanged from the previous day and down 82 from the previous week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 755, down 300 from the previous day and 195 from the previous week [3] Group 5: Spread Data Inter - variety Spread - The RU - BR spread was - 6,338, up 1,025 from the previous day and 4,316 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 9,623, up 1,005 from the previous day and 4,256 from the previous week [3] - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,250, up 50 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week [3] Intra - variety Spread - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 250, up 30 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints explicitly stated in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on September 11 were 3463, 3383, 3450, 3413, and 3382 respectively, with daily changes of 13, 13, 30, 14, and 8, and weekly changes of -87, -71, -85, -73, and -73 [4]. - The trading volume on September 11 was 268,488, a daily increase of 45,671 and a weekly increase of 24,191. The open interest was 443,831, a daily increase of 7,774 and a weekly decrease of 49,369. The futures inventory was 26,490, a daily decrease of 400 and a weekly decrease of 3,300 [4]. Spot Market - On September 11, the market prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China were 3540, 3640, 3500, 3650, and 3850 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, -20, 0, and -20, and the weekly changes were -10, -60, -30, 0, and -20 [4]. - The price differences between Shandong - East China, Shandong - Northeast, and East China - South China on September 11 were -100, -310, and 140 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 20, and 20, and weekly changes of 50, 10, and -30 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis in Shandong, East China, and South China on September 11 were 77, 177, and 37 respectively, with daily changes of -13, -13, and -33, and weekly changes of 77, 27, and 57 [4]. - The calendar spreads of 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, and 12 - 03 on September 11 were 2, -67, 37, and 28 respectively, with daily changes of -5, -17, 16, and 6, and weekly changes of -2, 14, -12, and 0 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt - Brent crack spread on September 11 was 32, a daily decrease of 57 and a weekly decrease of 31. The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -39, a daily decrease of 52 and a weekly decrease of 28 [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries and Ma Rui - type refineries on September 11 were 416 and 702 respectively, with daily changes of -43 and -46, and weekly changes of -19 and -23. The import profits from South Korea - East China and Singapore - South China were -101 and -940 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -18, and weekly changes of -49 and -21 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on September 11 was 67.5, a daily increase of 1.1 and a weekly increase of 0.5. The market prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in Shandong on September 11 were 7557, 6478, and 3575 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 8, and 0, and weekly changes of 4, 8, and 40 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The market is trading on the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Inland regions will have seasonal stocking demand and increased stocking from the new Lianhong plant, but continuous reverse flow from ports will impact inland prices. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to resume operations in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will lower inland valuations. With average valuations and inventory and weak drivers, it's advisable to wait before bottom - fishing. Import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance should be monitored [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. International prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. In September, the number of maintenance activities is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Prices in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are currently average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis for the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [8] 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2255 to 2302, and the South China spot price increased from 2250 to 2290. Other regional prices also showed certain changes. The import profit remained at 323, and the main contract basis and MTO profit on the disk remained relatively stable [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 840. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD remained stable. The import profit remained around - 180 - 190, and the main futures price decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the warehouse receipts increased by 887 [6] PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6590 to 6500 and then increased to 6650. The Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP and North China PP prices showed minor fluctuations. The export profit remained around - 15, and the main futures price decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 64 [8] PVC - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2300 to 2400 and then remained stable. The Shandong caustic soda price increased from 882 to 902 and then decreased to 897. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and the Northwest, and ethylene - based PVC in East China remained relatively stable. The import price (CFR China) remained at 700, and other profit and basis data remained stable [8]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/11 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/04 | 3200 | 3210 | 3250 | 3200 | 3260 | 3240 | | 2025/09/05 | 3200 | 3260 | 3300 | 3240 | 3300 | 3290 | | 2025/09/08 | 3200 | 3260 | 3260 | 3240 | 3300 | 3240 | | 2025/09/09 | 3200 | 3260 | 3260 | 3240 | 3300 | 3300 | | 2025/09/10 | 3160 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3300 | 3260 | | 变化 | -40 | -50 | 0 | -30 | 0 | -40 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels of oil per month until August 2026, worsening the fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet. Brent and WTI crude oil spreads weakened, while the Dubai near - month spread strengthened. Refining margins in Europe and the US increased significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Globally, oil product inventories increased slightly. The fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring crude oil spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fall to a central range of $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on Iran and Russia's production cuts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 4 to 10, 2025, WTI prices increased by $1.04, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.91. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, HO - BRT, etc., also showed corresponding changes. For domestic data, SC increased by 3.40, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 68.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Israel's attack and US pressure on the EU pushed up oil prices. The reaction of Qatar is crucial. Meanwhile, the risk of Russian supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks and Western sanctions also supported oil prices. Russia's crude oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [3] 3. Regional Fundamentals - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 4. EIA Report - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.97% year - on - year [14]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/11 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | -53.55 | 55.68 | -11.13% 高炉开工率 | 85.79 | | -4.23 | -4.30 | 3.41% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1725.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 75.00 | -4.43% 铁水日均产量 | 228.84 | | -11.29 | -11.48 | 2.80% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 55.00 | -10.03% 盘面05 | 1726 | -18.00 | 57.50 | -136.50 | -5.79% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | 55.00 | -9.81% 盘面09 | 1512. ...