Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: January 30, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [9] Key Data Summary BR Futures - Closing price of BR main contract on January 29: 13,390, up 125 from the previous day and 460 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on January 29: 68,184, down 8,156 from the previous day and 59,192 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on January 29: 468,486, down 46,446 from the previous day but up 111,808 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 29: 28,320, up 100 from the previous day and 1,400 from the previous week [4] - Virtual - to - physical ratio on January 29: 12.04, down 1 from the previous day and 12 from the previous week [4] Basis and Spread - Butadiene rubber (BR) basis: - Cis - butadiene basis on January 29: - 440, down 125 from the previous day and 210 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on January 29: - 190, down 125 from the previous day and 60 from the previous week [4] - Month - to - month spreads: - 02 - 03 spread on January 29: - 90, down 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 29: - 25, down 15 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - Cross - commodity spreads: - RU - BR spread on January 29: 3,300, up 205 from the previous day but down 82 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR spread on January 29: 140, up 140 from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [4] Spot Prices - BR spot prices: - Shandong market price on January 29: 12,950, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 from the previous week [4] - Transfar market price on January 29: 12,900, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 29: 13,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on January 29: 1,520, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on January 29: 1,785, unchanged from the previous day and up 35 from the previous week [4] - Butadiene spot prices: - Shandong market price on January 29: 10,650, up 125 from the previous day and down 350 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 29: 10,550, up 100 from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 29: 10,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4] - CFR China on January 29: 1,270, unchanged from the previous day and up 90 from the previous week [4] Profit Margins - BR profit margins: - Spot processing profit on January 29: - 113, down 128 from the previous day but up 607 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on January 29: 286, up 15 from the previous day and 299 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on January 29: 497, down 14 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [4] - Butadiene profit margins: - Carbon - four extraction profit: data for January 29 is N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 29: 1,918, up 28 from the previous day and down 192 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on January 29: 431, up 112 from the previous day and down 820 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on January 29: - 993, up 459 from the previous day and 2,329 from the previous week [4] - Other product profit margins: - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 29: 588, unchanged from the previous day and up 388 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit on January 29: - 1,315, down 97 from the previous day and up 72 from the previous week [4] - SBS production profit on January 29: - 1,175, unchanged from the previous day and up 285 from the previous week [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo - rush and price - support stories in March, the market is likely to remain stable in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward potential depends on capital behavior. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, focusing on the more certain far - month contract 2610 affected by the off - season and policies. Be cautious with the 2604 contract unless there is significant premium. The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. For the 06 and 08 contracts, their valuations are hard to anchor, currently within a reasonable range and highly affected by geopolitics, so operate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Price and Volume**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.09% change, volume of 432, and a decrease of 374 in open interest. The EC2604 contract closed at 1249.7 with a 1.68% increase, volume of 27481, and a decrease of 477 in open interest. The EC2606 contract closed at 1576.0 with a 5.55% increase, volume of 1532, and an increase of 1704 in open interest. The EC2608 contract closed at 1645.4 with a 5.42% increase, volume of 1154, and an increase of 117 in open interest. The EC2610 contract closed at 1151.2 with a 1.42% increase, volume of 2032, and an increase of 211 in open interest [2] - **Month - spread**: The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 467.8, with a day - on - day decrease of 22.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 111.6. The EC2504 - 2606 month - spread was - 326.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 62.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 51.7 [2] - **Spot Indicators**: The spot (European route) indicator "ટરનાટ" on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a - 4.86% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European route) on January 23, 2026, was 1595 dollars/TEU, a - 4.83% change from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK opened at 2450 ( - 300 compared to the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. In Week 6, MSK opened at 2050 ( - 400 compared to the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February Week 7 - 9 ( - 100 compared to the previous period), lower than market expectations [4] Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready. US President Trump said that Hamas seemed to be about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Big Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: January 30, 2026 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Bond Market - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies vary, with the US at 4.233, the UK at 4.510, France at 3.418, etc [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield is 3.561, the UK's is 3.706, and Germany's is 2.078 [3]. 2.2 Exchange Rate Market - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real is 5.190, against the South African rand is 15.738, etc [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB is at 6.952, the off - shore RMB is at 6.945, and the RMB central parity rate is 6.977 [3]. 2.3 Stock Market - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 is at 6969.010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 49071.560, and the Nasdaq is at 23685.120 [3]. 2.4 Credit Bond Index - The euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index is at 267.857, and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index is at 413.160 [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - **Closing Prices**: The A - share index closes at 4157.98, the CSI 300 at 4753.87, the SSE 50 at 3110.91, etc [4]. - **Price Changes (%)**: The A - share index rises 0.16%, the CSI 300 rises 0.76%, the SSE 50 rises 1.65%, while the ChiNext falls 0.57% and the CSI 500 falls 0.97% [4]. 3.2 Valuation - **PE (TTM)**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 is 14.31, the SSE 50 is 11.82, the CSI 500 is 38.58, etc [4]. - **Quarter - on - Quarter Changes**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 has a 0.11 quarter - on - quarter change, the SSE 50 has 0.15, and the CSI 500 has - 0.37 [4]. 3.3 Risk Premium - **1/PE - 10 - year Interest Rate**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 is - 0.64, and that of the German DAX is 2.46 [4]. - **Quarter - on - Quarter Changes**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 has a 0.02 quarter - on - quarter change, and the German DAX has 0.12 [4]. 3.4 Fund Flows - **Latest Values**: The net fund outflow of A - shares is - 952.92, the main board is - 653.65, and the ChiNext is - 134.31 [4]. - **Average of the Past 5 Days**: The average net fund outflow of A - shares in the past 5 days is - 1146.55, the main board is - 874.95, and the ChiNext is - 205.36 [4]. 4. Transaction Amount and Basis 4.1 Transaction Amount - **Latest Values**: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 32300.08, the CSI 300 is 9179.66, and the SSE 50 is 2948.88 [5]. - **Quarter - on - Quarter Changes**: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has a 2645.98 quarter - on - quarter change, the CSI 300 has 885.52, and the SSE 50 has 422.65 [5]. 4.2 Basis of Main Contracts - **Basis**: The basis of IF is 30.13, IH is 19.49, and IC is - 0.24 [5]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratio of IF is 0.63%, IH is 0.63%, and IC is - 0.00% [5]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The T2303 closes at 108.25, TF2303 at 105.88, T2306 at 108.26, and TF2306 at 105.91 [5]. - **Price Changes (%)**: T2303 rises 0.04%, T2306 rises 0.06%, while TF2303 has no change and TF2306 has a - 0.00% change [5]. 6. Capital Interest Rate - **Interest Rates**: R001 is 1.4381%, R007 is 1.6245%, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5910% [5]. - **Daily Changes (BP)**: R001 has a - 17.00 BP daily change, R007 has a 1.00 BP change, and SHIBOR - 3M has no change [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, different regions have varying prices and price changes. For example, the latest price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100. The price of the main contract is 5736, with a daily change of 104 and a weekly change of 126 [1]. - For silicon manganese, the closing price of the main contract on CZCE, the basis in different regions, and the price differences between different grades and regions are presented. For example, the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract on CZCE shows different trends from 2022 - 2026 [6]. Supply - The production volume and capacity utilization rate of silicon iron in 136 Chinese enterprises (monthly and weekly), and the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) are provided. For example, the monthly production volume of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises shows different trends from 2022 - 2026 [4][6]. - The production volume and procurement volume of silicon iron and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also included. For example, the monthly procurement volume of FeSi75 - B silicon iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group shows different trends from 2022 - 2026 [4]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese in China are presented, such as the estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China, the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons) [4][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in different regions (weekly), the total number of silicon iron and silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), and the inventory average available days in different regions [5][7]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, such as the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (yuan/ton), the profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (yuan/ton), and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron (yuan) [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View - Not explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder was priced at 795, up 10 daily and 4 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.9; PB powder was at 799, up 10 daily and 4 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 851.1; Mac powder was at 793, up 10 daily and unchanged weekly, with a discounted futures price of 866.1; Jinbuba powder was at 752, up 10 daily and 4 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 845.2; Mixed powder was at 730, up 6 daily and 2 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 868.2; Super special powder was at 682, up 12 daily and 10 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 903.0; Roy Hill powder was at 786, up 10 daily and 4 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 865.1 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend was at 830, up 10 daily and 4 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 837.4; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 763, up 10 daily and 4 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 837.0; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 768, up 10 daily and 4 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 880, up 10 daily and 8 weekly; 61% Indian powder was at 741, up 10 daily and 4 weekly; Karara concentrate was at 885, up 10 daily and 9 weekly; KUMBA powder was at 858, up 10 daily and 4 weekly; 57% Indian powder was at 617, up 12 daily and 10 weekly; Atlas powder was at 725, up 6 daily and 2 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate was at 982, up 6 daily and 6 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 869.0 [1]. Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2701 was at 765.5, up 13.0 daily and 8.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 13.5 and a change in inter - monthly spread of - 2.2 daily and 2.3 weekly; i2605 was at 798.5, up 15.5 daily and 12.0 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 33.0 and a change in inter - monthly spread of - 4.7 daily and - 1.2 weekly; i2609 was at 779.0, up 14.5 daily and 9.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 19.5 and a change in inter - monthly spread of - 3.7 daily and 1.3 weekly [1]. - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 was at 105.50, down 0.20 daily and up 0.11 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 3.40 and a change in inter - monthly spread of - 3.0 daily and 0.4 weekly; FE05 was at 103.07, down 0.63 daily and 0.22 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.43 and a change in inter - monthly spread of - 0.1 daily and 1.9 weekly; FE09 was at 102.10, down 0.35 daily and up 0.03 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 0.97 and a change in inter - monthly spread of - 2.3 daily and - 1.0 weekly [1].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 698.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 -67.0 25省终端可用天数 17.8 -0.2 -2.2 -3.1 0.2 秦皇岛5000 613.0 2.0 7.0 22.0 -57.0 25省终端供煤 620.7 0.4 12.2 -19.3 -2.1 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2340.0 -22.0 -126.0 -368.0 -17.2 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 -40.0 北方锚地船舶 106.0 6.0 34.0 33.0 53.0 大同5500 555.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 -75.0 北方港调入量 130.5 -32.8 -0.4 0.0 16.8 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -92.0 北方港吞吐量 167.4 5.2 0.2 20.9 96.8 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 638.5 -22.0 -39.9 21.1 162.1 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/30 金十数据1月30日讯，伊朗总统府29日发表声明说，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬当天表示，如果美国寻求谈判与真正的外交， 就必须停止挑衅和制造紧张的行动。佩泽希齐扬当天下午分别与卡塔尔埃米尔塔米姆、巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹通电话，就 美国破坏稳定的行动所引发地区紧张局势交换意见。他在通话中感谢卡塔尔和巴基斯坦给予支持，并表示希望伊斯兰国 家之间的团结合作进一步加强和深化。 ·特朗普宣布国家紧急状态 并对向古巴输油的国家加征关税 美国白宫：特朗普签署行政命令，宣布进入国家紧急状态，并建立一项程序，对向古巴出售或以其他方式提供石油的国 家的商品征收关税。 ·委内瑞拉证实委美将重启商业航班 金十数据1月30日讯，委内瑞拉总统府29日发布消息，证实委内瑞拉同美国将恢复商业航空往来。消息说，委美之间的 商业航空空域将"立即重启"，这是委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯和美国总统特朗普通话的结果。当天早些时候，特朗普在 内阁会议上说，他已指示美国交通部长达菲和包括军方在内的所有相关人员在"29日结束前"开放委内瑞拉空域，以便美 国公民很快能够前往该国。美国航空公司方面随后说，计划在政府批准和安 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/30 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/23 | 2185 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2218 | 2109 | | 2026/01/26 | 2189 | 2271 | 2057 | 2250 | 2218 | 2109 | | 2026/01/27 | 2189 | 2271 | 2061 | 2246 | 2218 | 2109 | | 2026/01/28 | 2191 | 2271 | 2061 | 2245 | 2218 | 2107 | | 2026/01/29 | 2191 | 2270 | 2061 | 2244 | 2218 | 2108 | | 环比 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 105125 13820 7.40 三月 109400 13914 7.41 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.88 1825.50 现货出口 4722.22 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 25290 3440 7.35 三月 26010 3462 4.90 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.28 -3182.91 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24860 3276 7.59 三月 25655 3300 7.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.29 -2318.30 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 142750 18503 7.71 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -450.01 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16750 1998 8.39 三月 17255 2046 12.39 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.53 ...

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