| | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/20 | | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.224 | 4.414 | 3.499 | 2.838 | 3.467 | 3.227 | 0.229 | 3.457 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.258 | - | 1.834 | - | 4.742 | 4.486 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.588 | 3.667 | 2.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 02 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. The 04 contract needs attention on the spot market and actual rush - shipping situation. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese New Year rush - shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of the 04 contract fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to pay attention to possible correction opportunities. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the 10 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuations of the 04 and 10 contracts are neutral with limited downward space [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602 closed at 1714.3 with a 0.22% increase, trading volume of 1999, and an open interest of 6439 with a decrease of 1139. EC2604 closed at 1132.2 with a 1.00% increase, trading volume of 30559, and an open interest of 41888 with a decrease of 744. EC2606 closed at 1318.0 with a 0.52% increase, trading volume of 2329, and an open interest of 4200 with an increase of 420. EC2608 closed at 1459.0 with a 0.45% decrease, trading volume of 121, and an open interest of 1366 with a decrease of 19. EC2610 closed at 1054.1 with a 0.09% decrease, trading volume of 1410, and an open interest of 8186 with an increase of 248 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2502 - 2604 was 582.1 compared to the previous day, with a day - on - day decrease of 7.4 and a week - on - week increase of 61.4. EC2504 - 2606 was - 185.8, with a day - on - day increase of 4.4 and a week - on - week increase of 28.0 [2] Spot Indexes - The SCHIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39, showing an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase from the period before the previous one. The SCFI (European route) index on January 16, 2026, was 1676 dollars/TEU, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 4, MSK opened the cabin at 2750 (a 100 increase from the previous period), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures. In Week 5, MSK opened the cabin at 2450 (a 300 decrease from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [3] Related News - On January 20, Iran stated that the internet would return to normal within the week, and the Iranian security forces' commander said that the government had fully restored order in all cities. Russia, Belarus, the EU, Norway, Poland, Thailand, Uzbekistan and other countries have successively stated that their leaders have been invited to join the Gaza "Peace Committee" [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, short - term upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation adjustment, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. - For MEG, the pattern is expected to remain weak under continuous new production, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, with limited inventory pressure and high operating rate. It has low - to - medium valuation and weak drivers, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - No clear overall view is provided for natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. - No clear overall view is provided for styrene and related products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Situation**: The downstream end - TA device maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester load decreases faster, the inventory accumulates, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee remains stable. PX domestic maintenance reduces the load, the overseas load continues to increase, PXN shrinks month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit weakens, and the isomerization benefit remains high. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia is weak [1]. - **Future Outlook**: With high PX profits, domestic production remains high and overseas start - up recovers. The de - stocking amplitude in the far - month is revised down. TA's own processing fee is acceptable, and it turns to inventory accumulation with the pre - holiday polyester maintenance plan. The short - term upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation adjustment, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. MEG - **Market Situation**: The domestic oil - based operation is stable in the near - term, the coal - based load increases, driving the overall load to increase slightly. After the arrival at the port recovers, the port inventory accumulates significantly at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast during the week remains high. The basis strengthens month - on - month, and the coal - based benefit remains stable [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Recently, under the stable benefits of the mainstream EG process, the reduction mainly comes from the MTO part. The absolute amount and sustainability need further observation. Overall, inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under continuous new production, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Situation**: The near - end device operates stably, the start - up rate remains at 97.6%, the production and sales improve month - on - month, the inventory accumulates slightly, and the spot processing fee weakens month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end decreases, the raw material inventory accumulates, the finished product inventory decreases, and the benefit improves month - on - month [1]. - **Future Outlook**: The downstream seasonality of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the operating rate remains high. It has low - to - medium valuation and weak drivers, and the overall contradiction is limited. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Market Situation**: There are daily and weekly changes in various rubber prices such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, and RMB - denominated mixed rubber, as well as changes in related spreads and processing profits. For example, the daily change of the RU main contract is - 150, and the weekly change is - 385 [1]. - **Future Outlook**: No clear future outlook is provided in the given content. Styrene and Related Products - **Market Situation**: There are daily changes in the prices of styrene - related products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) has a daily change of 170. The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also have daily changes, such as the daily change of PS domestic profit being - 100 [1][4]. - **Future Outlook**: No clear future outlook is provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a small inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil had a small inventory draw - down, and Fujairah residue oil had an inventory build - up. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy - oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur, the high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 338.39 to 336.42, a decrease of 4.64; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 393.07 to 385.25, a decrease of 4.33; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 11.61 to - 10.40, a change of - 0.31; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 634.60 to 636.65, an increase of 2.45; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 241.53 to - 251.40, a decrease of 6.78; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 21.98 to 23.36, an increase of 0.17; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 54.68 to 48.83, a decrease of 0.31 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During January 13 - 19, 2026, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 346.25 to 360.61, an increase of 3.77; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 353.19 to 365.42, an increase of 2.15; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 422.84 to 429.94, an increase of 3.49; for Singapore GO M1, it changed from 81.26 to 83.40, an increase of 1.89; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 8.90 to - 6.58, a change of 0.21; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 178.48 to - 187.22, a decrease of 10.50 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 344.30 to 359.26, an increase of 0.92; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 424.25 to 431.00, an increase of 1.63; the 380 basis changed from - 1.80 to - 1.45, an increase of 0.20; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 13.4 to 12.6, a decrease of 1.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 15.8 to 15.6, an increase of 0.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - Between January 13 and 19, 2026, for FU 01, the price changed from 2451 to 2478, a change of - 7; for FU 05, it changed from 2469 to 2526, an increase of 6; for FU 09, it changed from 2467 to 2500, an increase of 2; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from - 18 to - 48, a decrease of 13; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 2 to 26, an increase of 4; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from 16 to 22, an increase of 9 [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for LU 01, the price changed from 3112 to 3136, an increase of 48; for LU 05, it changed from 3063 to 3052, an increase of 11; for LU 09, it changed from 3081 to 3073, an increase of 17; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 49 to 84, an increase of 37; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 18 to - 21, a decrease of 6; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 31 to - 63, a decrease of 31 [3]

合成橡胶早报 jīs 研究中心能化团队 2026/1/20 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 12/18 | 1/13 | 1/15 | 1/16 | 1/19 | 日度变化 | 間度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 11040 | 12000 | 12190 | 11815 | 11605 | -210 | -395 | | | | 持つ量 | 101376 | 95318 | 99183 | 95647 | 94184 | -1463 | -1134 | | | 需面 | 成交量 | 127434 | 130171 | 150035 | 163121 | 114797 | -48324 | -15374 | | | | 仓単数量 | 20180 | 26330 | 26330 | 26330 | 26030 | -300 | -300 | | | | 虚实比 | 25.12 | 18.10 | 18.83 | 18.16 | 18.09 | 0 | 0 | | | | 顺 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 706.0 0.0 6.0 -26.0 -64.0 25省终端可用天数 20.1 0.0 0.1 -0.9 2.5 秦皇岛5000 620.0 0.0 9.0 -11.0 -60.0 25省终端供煤 598.9 8.5 -9.6 -41.2 -24.0 广州港5500 810.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -60.0 北方港库存 2593.0 -33.0 62.0 -218.0 266.0 鄂尔多斯5500 495.0 -10.0 -5.0 -10.0 -65.0 北方锚地船舶 115.0 11.0 -3.0 43.0 38.0 大同5500 550.0 -10.0 -5.0 -10.0 -90.0 北方港调入量 138.9 -23.0 -8.0 -21.1 -6.0 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -22.0 -72.0 北方港吞吐量 119.3 -51.5 29.5 2.3 -14.9 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 633.9 8.1 23.3 2 ...

【行情分析】： 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/20 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/13 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 6 | 0 | 372 | 2750 | 2800 | 94 | -50 | | 2026/01/14 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 18 | 0 | 379 | 2750 | 2800 | 112 | -50 | | 2026/01/15 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | -5 | 10 | 383 | 2750 | 2800 | 90 | -70 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel on January 20, 2026 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 20, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100,975, LME spot price was 12,959, and the spot ratio was 7.74. The domestic March price was 101,360, LME March price was 12,892, and the March ratio was 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.90, with a profit of - 1653.61, and the spot export profit was 347.35 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24,420, LME spot price was 3,174, and the spot ratio was 7.69. The domestic March price was 24,490, LME March price was 3,216, and the March ratio was 5.35. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a profit of - 1992.94 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23,870, LME spot price was 3,165, and the spot ratio was 7.54. The domestic March price was 24,125, LME March price was 3,149, and the March ratio was 7.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a profit of - 2476.03 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 141,400, LME spot price was 17,759, and the spot ratio was 7.96. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.99, with a profit of 406.59 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,025, LME spot price was 2,000, and the spot ratio was 8.51. The domestic March price was 17,235, LME March price was 2,047, and the March ratio was 11.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52, with a profit of - 14.23 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 20, 2026, the spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract were 590, 770, 830, and 790 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 605, 1108, 1620, and 2132 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 225, - 185, - 160, and - 155 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 226, 359, 491, and 624 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 240, 275, 315, and 335 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 230, 362, 493, and 624 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 230, - 180, - 150, and - 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1180, 1450, 1670, and 1650 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 170, and the theoretical spread was 7994 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 300 and 290 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 498 and 1141 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 255 and 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 193 and 334 (also 190 and 367) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 390 and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 228 and 341 respectively [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 20, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (three - continuous) contracts were 4.14, 4.20, 5.88, 0.99, 1.40, and 0.70 respectively, and for the London (three - continuous) contracts were 4.02, 4.10, 6.29, 0.98, 1.53, and 0.64 respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central level [1]. - The internal and external valuations are relatively high; the external supply - demand pattern is expected to weaken, as the impact of fog in the US is expected to be small, and although the Middle East is tight in the short - term, it will be loose later; the combustion demand will end in February, and the PDH operation rate will decline [1]. - The domestic valuation is neutral, and the 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads are in reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts in the future [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Changes - From 2026/01/13 to 2026/01/19, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit and main basis all had different degrees of changes. The daily changes on 2026/01/19 were - 75, 0, 30, 1, 1, 1, 20, 0, - 79, 45 respectively [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Monday, the futures market dropped significantly. The 02 - 03 spread was 85 (+10), the 03 - 04 spread was - 256 (+3), and the 02 - 04 spread was - 171 (+13). At 10 p.m. on Monday, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 523 and 527 US dollars respectively, with small changes [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 250 (-58) [1]. - The prices of domestic gas increased. The price in Shandong was 4440 (+40), in East China was 4523 (+56), and in South China was 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50) [1]. - There were 5977 warehouse receipts (-241). The FEI and CP spreads increased, the MB spread decreased, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB [1]. - The PG - FEI spread was 73.6 (-11.9), and the PG - CP spread was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively [1]. - Freight rates increased. The rate from the US Gulf to Japan was 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (weekly +12) [1]. - PDH profits were significantly repaired but still poor. Port inventory decreased by 4.9%, ship arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external sales decreased by 0.19% [1]. - The PDH operation rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple device shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operation rate expected to continue to decline [1].

| | | 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/20 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/13 | 2182 | 2262 | 2045 | 2248 | 2214 | 2105 | | 2026/01/14 | 2183 | 2262 | 2050 | 2250 | 2216 | 2105 | | 2026/01/15 | 2185 | 2262 | 2051 | 2250 | 2216 | 2105 | | 2026/01/16 | 2186 | 2265 | 2054 | 2252 | 2217 | 2105 | | 2026/01/19 | 2186 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 环比 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专 ...