1. Spot Market - Newman powder price is 794, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -26, and the import profit is 15.88 [1] - PB powder price is 804, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -24 [1] - Macfarlane powder price is 797, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -33, and the import profit is 44.08 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 757, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -24, and the import profit is 55.89 [1] - Mixed powder price is 743, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -22, and the import profit is 18.32 [1] - Super special powder price is 677, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -28, and the import profit is 6.07 [1] - Carajás powder price is 879, with a daily change of -26 and a weekly change of -41, and the import profit is -13.27 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 835, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -30, and the import profit is 14.44 [1] - IOC6 price is 768, with a daily change of -6 and a weekly change of -24 [1] - SSFG price is 773, with a daily change of -6 and a weekly change of -24 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 879, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -32 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 746, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -24 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 883, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -28 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 791, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -24, and the import profit is 64.65 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 863, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of -24 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 612, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -28 [1] - Atlas powder price is 738, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -22 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 971, with a daily change of -6 and a weekly change of -11 [1] 2. Futures Market - i2701 contract price is 762.5, with a daily change of -44.0 and a weekly change of -101.5, and the monthly spread is 14.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 794.0, with a daily change of -18.0 and a weekly change of -28.5, and the monthly spread is -31.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 776.5, with a daily change of -17.0 and a weekly change of -25.5, and the monthly spread is 17.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 106.92, with a daily change of -0.47 and a weekly change of -1.42, and the monthly spread is -2.17 [1] - FE05 contract price is 106.03, with a daily change of -0.71 and a weekly change of -1.11, and the monthly spread is 0.89 [1] - FE09 contract price is 104.75, with a daily change of -0.60 and a weekly change of -0.44, and the monthly spread is 1.28 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and exceeding the 1.7% reported in the same period last year [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to decline by 3% to 105 million tons, while the soybean crush volume is expected to increase to 60 million tons. Total soybean supply is expected to rise by 5% to 183.79 million tons, while demand is expected to fall by 1%. The ending inventory of soybean meal is expected to surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with the daily average export volume increasing by 145% compared to the same period last year [1]. - China's edible vegetable oil imports in December were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year [1]. 3) Section Summaries Overnight Market Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of last Thursday, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than last year's 1.7%. Mato Grosso led the progress, while Parana lagged due to cold and cloudy weather [1]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports and Crush**: In 2026, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to drop 3% to 105 million tons, while the crush volume will increase to 60 million tons. Total supply will rise 5% to 183.79 million tons, and demand will fall 1% to 168.42 million tons. The output of soybean meal is expected to increase by 2% to 47.4 million tons, and the export volume will increase by 6% to 24.7 million tons. The ending inventory of soybean meal will surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons. The output of soybean oil will increase by 3% to 11.7 million tons, exports will fall by 19% to 1.1 million tons, and domestic consumption will increase by 3% [1]. - **Brazilian January Soybean Exports**: Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with a daily average of 118,850.67 tons, a 145% increase compared to January last year [1]. - **China's Vegetable Oil Imports**: In December, China's edible vegetable oil imports were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year. December soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, up 23.6% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 350,000 tons, up 22.5% year - on - year. December palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.57 million tons, up 8.2% year - on - year. December rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 220,000 tons, up 2.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.13 million tons, up 13.1% year - on - year [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 13 to January 19, 2026 are provided [1].

Report Summary 1. Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds**: Yields vary among major economies. For example, the US is at 4.224%, the UK at 4.400%, and China at 1.836% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds**: The US 2 - year bond yield is 3.588%, and the Chinese 1 - year yield is 1.230% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.371, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate is 6.970 [1] - **Stock Indices**: Different major economies' stock indices have various values. The S&P 500 is at 6940.010, and the Shanghai Composite Index is at 4101.913 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - shares closed at 4101.91 with a - 0.26% change, and the CSI 500 rose 0.11% to 8232.67 [2] - **Valuation**: PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 is 27.72 with a - 0.01% change, and the German DAX is 19.63 with a - 0.04% change [2] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 is - 0.62 with a - 0.05% change, and the German DAX is 2.26 with a - 0.01% change [2] - **Fund Flows**: A - shares had a net outflow of 1311.65, and the 5 - day average was - 930.52 [2] 3. Transaction Data - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 30262.32, with a 1207.36 increase [3] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: IF had a basis of - 8.67 and a - 0.18% change, IH had a basis of 4.64 and a 0.15% change [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: T2303 closed at 108.07 with a 0.03% increase, and TF2306 closed at 105.84 with a 0.08% increase [3] 5. Money Market - **Funding Rates**: R001 was 1.3734% with an 18 - BP decrease, and SHIBOR - 3M was 1.6000% with no change [3]

授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息 中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1430.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -109.23 | -11.18% 高炉开工率 | 85.48 | | -0.56 | 0.55 | 1.47% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -110.00 | 7.69% 铁水日均产量 | 228.01 | | -1.49 | 1.46 | 1.57% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1625.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -90.00 | -9.22% 盘面05 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Iran has restored internet and text messaging services. Trump's stance has become more rational, but the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global onshore oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, and the total waterborne inventory is decreasing month - on - month but higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose. The WTI and Brent markets are decoupled. European refinery profits are facing downward pressure due to rising crude oil prices. The absolute price center in the first quarter is expected to remain high. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Syrian government forces have occupied the Conoco gas field, the largest Omar oil field in the east, and two oil fields in the north. - In Iran, the armed forces' chief of staff said that hostile forces were distorting facts through the media. The supreme leader, Khamenei, said the US incited the domestic unrest in Iran, and Trump was guilty. Iran has restored text messaging and will gradually restore internet connectivity. - The US military is increasing its defensive and offensive capabilities in the Middle East in case Trump orders an attack on Iran. - The head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency visited the US to discuss the Iran situation. Trump and Netanyahu had two phone calls in two days to discuss the Iran situation, and Putin offered to mediate between Israel and Iran. [3][4][5] Inventory - In the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, an increase of 0.81%. - The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.14%. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.05%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day from the previous week. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending January 9 was 8.977 million barrels, with an expected value of 3.565 million barrels and a previous value of 7.702 million barrels. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was - 29,000 barrels, with an expected value of 512,000 barrels and a previous value of 5.594 million barrels. [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1. Basis and Spread - The daily change of Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) is 11, and the weekly change is 0. The value on 1/15 is -7 [4][12]. - The daily change of East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) is 1, and the weekly change is -10. The value on 1/15 is 1 [4][12]. - The daily change of South China basis (Foshan warehouse) is 1, and the weekly change is -10. The value on 1/15 is -37 [4][12]. - The daily change of 01 - 03 is 1, and the weekly change is -11. The value on 1/15 is -68 [4][12]. - The daily change of 02 - 03 is -6, and the weekly change is -6. The value on 1/15 is -21 [4][12]. - The daily change of 03 - 06 is -1, and the weekly change is -2. The value on 1/15 is -7 [4][12]. 3.2. BU Main Contract (02) - The daily change of the BU main contract (02) price is -1, and the weekly change is 10. The price on 1/15 is 3167 [4][12]. - The daily change of trading volume is -59540, and the weekly change is -95562. The trading volume on 1/15 is 240295 [4][12]. - The daily change of open interest is -3970, and the weekly change is -33549. The open interest on 1/15 is 427132 [4][12]. - The daily change of the contract is 1270, and the weekly change is 750. The contract value on 1/15 is 16910 [4][12]. 3.3. Price of Relevant Entities - The price of Brent crude oil on 12/17 is 59.7, on 1/12 is 63.3, and on 1/14 is 66.5 [4][12]. - The price of Jingbo on 12/17 is 2950, on 1/12 is 3110, and on 1/15 is 3130, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 20 [4][12]. - The price of Shandong (non - Jingbo) on 12/17 is 2830, on 1/12 is 3070, and on 1/15 is 3080, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 10 [4][12]. - The price of Zhenjiang warehouse remains 3170 from 1/12 to 1/15, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. - The price of Foshan warehouse remains 3130 from 1/12 to 1/15, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt Maru profit on 12/17 is 405, on 1/12 is 409, and on 1/13 is 310, and on 1/14 is 279 [4][12].

Report Overview - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][10] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [3][11] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11] Report Content Summary 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on January 15 was 12,190, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly increase of 175 compared to December 17 [4][12]. - The open interest on January 15 was 99,183, a daily decrease of 1,393 and a weekly increase of 72,844 [4][12]. - The trading volume on January 15 was 150,035, a daily decrease of 26,996 and a weekly increase of 48,814 [4][12]. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 26,330, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2,000 [4][12]. - The virtual - real ratio was 18.83, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 13 [4][12]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis was -190 on January 15, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 125 [4][12]. - The styrene - butadiene spread was 110 on January 15, a daily increase of 110 and a weekly decrease of 75 [4][12]. - The 02 - 03 spread was -60 on January 15, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 10 [4][12]. - The 03 - 04 spread was -35 on January 15, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4][12]. - The RU - BR spread was 3,802 on January 15, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 210 [4][12]. - The NR - BR spread was 660 on January 15, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 275 [4][12]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 12,000 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4][12]. - The Transfar market price was 11,950 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4][12]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,450 on January 15, with no daily change [4][12]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,675 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 40 [4][12]. Profit - The spot processing profit was -273 on January 15, a daily decrease of 77 and a weekly decrease of 384 [4][12]. - The import profit was 75 on January 15, a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 211 [4][12]. - The export profit was 603 on January 15, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly increase of 222 [4][12]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 9,875 on January 15, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 425 [4][12]. - The Jiangsu market price was 9,650 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 400 [4][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,550 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 450 [4][12]. - The CFR China price was 1,140 [4][12]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was -33 on January 15, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 9 [4][12]. - The carbon four extraction profit reached 2,648, with subsequent data unavailable [4][12]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 990 on January 15, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 400 [4][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron (FeSi), prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5320, Inner Mongolia 72 is 5320, and Shaanxi 75 is 5850 [1] - For silicon manganese (SiMn), the closing price of the main contract on CZCE, basis, spreads between regions and grades are presented, along with prices of related materials like chemical coke and manganese ore [6] Supply - For silicon iron, the monthly and weekly production of 136 Chinese enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are shown [4] - For silicon manganese, the weekly production in China, and the purchase volume and price of Hebei Steel Group are provided [6] Demand - For silicon iron, factors related to demand include the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel in China, as well as the purchase volume of Hebei Steel Group [4] - For silicon manganese, the demand in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's data), and the export volume are presented [7] Inventory - For silicon iron, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), CZCE's warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory available days in different regions are given [5] - For silicon manganese, CZCE's warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, total inventory, inventory available days in China, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China are shown [7] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, costs such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and profits including production cost, discount to the main contract profit, and export profit are presented [5] - For silicon manganese, profits in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North and South regions), and the discount to the main contract profit in Guangxi and Ningxia are provided [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from January 12 to January 16, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. For example, Beijing rebar price remained at 3190 from January 12 to January 15, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price changed from 3270 on January 12 to 3330 on January 16, with a 40 increase [1]. Production and Inventory No information provided. Basis and Spread No information provided.

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - No core view information is provided in the report. Group 3: Data Summary SP Main Contract - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 16, 2026, was 5362.00. From January 12 - 16, the closing prices were 5490.00, 5492.00, 5494.00, 5436.00, and 5362.00 respectively, with daily changes of -1.08108%, 0.03643%, 0.03642%, -1.05570%, and -1.36130% [3]. - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 687.74, 687.77, 688.33, 681.32, and 672.00 respectively [3]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 60, 58, 56, 79, and 48 respectively, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 70, 68, 66, 74, and 48 respectively [3]. Import Pulp Price and Profit - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 6300 and an import profit of 86.64; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 5410 and an import profit of - 309.55. For Chilean pulp, the CFR (90 - day letter of credit) price of Yinxing was 700 US dollars, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 5410 and an import profit of - 173.27. The previous day's exchange rate was 6.97 [4]. Pulp Average Price - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, unbleached pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong - area average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4]. Paper Index and Profit Margin - From January 13 - 16, 2026, the double - offset paper index, double - copper paper index, white - card paper index, and living paper index remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 867 respectively [4]. - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on January 13 were - 5.2171%, 5.3083%, - 9.6305%, and 4.9468% respectively. On January 16, they were - 5.0973%, 5.4250%, - 9.5497%, and 6.0607% respectively, with a change of 0 for double - offset and double - copper paper, 0 for white - card paper, and 0.8085 for living paper [4]. Pulp Price Spread - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 810, 810, 810, 785, and 720 respectively; the softwood - unbleached price spread was 150, 150, 150, 115, and 10 respectively; the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 1675, 1675, 1675, 1640, and 1535 respectively; the softwood - waste paper price spread was 3974, 3974, 3974, 3939, and 3834 respectively [4][5].