Group 1: Spot Market Information - Newman powder price is 780, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 0, and the import profit is -3.64 [1] - PB powder price is 783, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 0, and the import profit is -16.24 [1] - Macfarlane powder price is 777, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 4, and the import profit is 25.46 [1] - Jimbobara powder price is 736, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 0, and the import profit is 23.54 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 725, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 4, and the import profit is -0.47 [1] - Super special powder price is 670, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 2, and the import profit is -13.29 [1] - Carajás powder price is 864, with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of -1, and the import profit is -30.88 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 814, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 0, and the import profit is -9.27 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 770, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 0, and the import profit is 16.54 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 969, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -14 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Information - i2601 contract price is 783.5, with a daily change of 6.5 and a weekly change of 3.5, and the monthly spread is -44.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 761.0, with a daily change of 8.0 and a weekly change of 3.5, and the monthly spread is 22.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 739.5, with a daily change of 8.0 and a weekly change of 6.0, and the monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 101.53, with a daily change of -0.45 and a weekly change of -0.53, and the monthly spread is -4.08 [1] - FE05 contract price is 99.48, with a daily change of -0.24 and a weekly change of -0.10, and the monthly spread is 2.05 [1] - FE09 contract price is 97.45, with a daily change of -0.11 and a weekly change of 0.05, and the monthly spread is 2.03 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil, with soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil ending inventories of 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.4% and a 9.4% increase compared to the average of last year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil produced, and the ending inventories of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, increasing by 6.4% year - on - year and 9.4% compared to the average of last year [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 10 - 16, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Protein Meal Basis - No information provided [3] Oil and Fat Futures Spread - No information provided [6] Oil and Fat Basis - No information provided [8]

Group 1: General Information - The report is the Scrap Steel Morning Report by the Black Team of the Research Center on December 17, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Price Data - The scrap steel prices in different regions from December 10 to December 16, 2025 are as follows: In the East China region, the prices were 2182 on December 10, 2173 on December 11, 2168 on December 12, 2167 on December 15, and 2169 on December 16; In the North China region, the prices were 2253 on December 10, 2251 on December 11, 2248 on December 12, 2251 on December 15, and 2252 on December 16; In the Central region, the prices were 2031 on December 10, 2031 on December 11, 2030 on December 12, 2033 on December 15, and 2034 on December 16; In the South China region, the prices were 2208 on December 10, 2208 on December 11, 2206 on December 12, 2217 on December 15, and 2221 on December 16; In the Northeast region, the prices were 2215 from December 10 to December 16; In the Southwest region, the prices were 2088 on December 10, 2087 on December 11, 2084 on December 12, 2084 on December 15, and 2085 on December 16 [3] - The环比 (month - on - month) changes are 2 in East China, 1 in North China, 1 in the Central region, 4 in South China, 0 in the Northeast region, and 1 in the Southwest region [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, the spot price is expected to remain strong as the channel inventory is at a neutral - low level despite the decline in spot quotes. Long - term, if downstream consumption weakens seasonally and middlemen release hoarded grains, the price may decline [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends [2]. - **Sugar**: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. - **Cotton**: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. - **Eggs**: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. - **Apples**: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. - **Pigs**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while the price in Jinzhou decreased by 30, and the price in Shekou decreased by 10. The basis changed by - 22, and the trade profit increased by 20 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the spot price is expected to be strong as the channel inventory is not over - stocked. Long - term, the price may decline if downstream demand weakens and middlemen release hoarded grains [1]. Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, and the price in Weifang decreased by 20. The basis increased by 11, and the processing profit remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm is the key [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, and the basis increased by 44. The import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 11, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2101 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 265. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 27, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 26 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02. The basis increased, and the prices of substitutes such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained relatively stable [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national cold - storage inventory data shows a decrease compared to last year [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Henan Kaifeng remained at 11.43. The basis decreased by 45 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The Middle East has a tight supply of LPG, and prices are unlikely to fall significantly in winter. The domestic market is expected to be weak in the short - term, with attention on the subsequent PDH operation under high - cost conditions and the situation of factory - warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Basis - In the civil gas segment, prices in East China were 4408 (-5), Shandong 4440 (-20), and South China 4460 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4570 (+20). The lowest delivery area was East China, with a basis of 198 and a daily change of (+5). The 01 - 02 monthly spread was 155 (+1), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 212 (+18). As of 21:00, FEI was 506 (-6) and CP was 503 (+0) dollars/ton [4] - The PG futures price dropped due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 monthly spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865). Domestic civil gas prices declined, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4419 [4] External and Internal Market Relationships - The external paper market first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP monthly spreads strengthened, while the MB monthly spread weakened; the oil - gas ratio declined. The internal - external relationship weakened, with PG - CP at 71 (-28) and PG - FEI at 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium for propane in East China was 85 (-7), and the FOB premiums for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively. Freight rates increased slightly [4] Profit and Operation - The spot and futures profits of PDH weakened; the alkylation unit's performance deteriorated; the MTBE profit fluctuated. The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external sales increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The chemical demand had poor profit but strong operating rates, with the PDH operating rate at 72.87% (+2.65 pct) [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Coal Prices**: The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5500 is 741.0, with a daily change of 0.6, a weekly change of 10.0, and a monthly change of 23.0; Qinhuangdao 5000 is 638.0, with a daily change of -9.0, a weekly change of -30.0, and a monthly change of -41.0; Onezhou Port 5500 is 835.0, with a daily change of -5.0, a weekly change of -15.0, and a monthly change of -50.0; Ordos 5500 is 505.0, with a daily change of -5.0, a weekly change of -85.0, and a monthly change of 20.0; Datong 5500 and Yulin 6000 are 712.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of -10.0, and a monthly change of -20.0; Yulin 6200 is 755.0, with a daily change of -5.0, a weekly change of -10.0, and a monthly change of 5.0 [1]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The 25 - province terminal available days are 22.7 days, with a daily change of 4.6, a weekly change of -99.0, and a monthly change of -67.0; the 25 - province terminal coal supply is 575.1, with a daily change of -33.4, a weekly change of -64.9; the 25 - province terminal inventory is 13438.5, with a daily change of 618.0, a weekly change of 1921.0, and a monthly change of 66.0; the 5 - province terminal daily consumption is 359.1, with a daily change of -135.8, a weekly change of -59.7 [1]. - **Port - related Data**: The northern port inventory is 2799.0, with a daily change of 65.0, a weekly change of 405.0; the northern port调入量 is -25.3; the northern port throughput is 135.1, with a daily change of -15.5, a weekly change of -24.8; the northern anchor - berth ships are 52.0, with a daily change of 20, a weekly change of -24.0 [1]. - **Shipping Index**: The CBCFI shipping index is 643.2, with a daily change of 23.8; the shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (4 - 5DWT) is 606.3, with a daily change of 15.9, a weekly change of -36.9, and a monthly change of -39.7 [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [3] Report Content BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) Futures Market - On December 16, the BR main contract (12) was at 10,930, up 85 from the previous day and 355 for the week [4]. - Open interest reached 101,056, an increase of 3,013 from the previous day and 20,510 for the week [4]. - Trading volume was 140,807, a decrease of 69,256 from the previous day but an increase of 13,815 for the week [4]. - Warehouse receipt quantity remained at 19,180, with no change from the previous day and an increase of 160 for the week [4]. - The long - short ratio was 26.34, up 1 from the previous day and 5 for the week [4]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 180, down 85 from the previous day and 125 for the week [4]. - The butadiene basis was 270, down 85 from the previous day and 175 for the week [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was - 25, up 5 from the previous day and down 10 for the week [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was - 25, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 for the week [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,240, down 115 from the previous day and 370 for the week [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,455, down 60 from the previous day and 210 for the week [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 10,750, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 for the week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,650, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 for the week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,700, up 100 from the previous day and 100 for the week [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,350, up 25 from the previous day and 25 for the week [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and for the week [4]. Profit - Spot processing profit was 543, up 92 from the previous day but down 259 for the week [4]. - Import profit was - 503, down 199 from the previous day but up 26 for the week [4]. - Export profit was 1,280, unchanged from the previous day and down 199 for the week [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 7,850, down 90 from the previous day and up 450 for the week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 7,625 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,550, unchanged from the previous day and up 350 for the week [4]. - CFR China was 870, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 for the week [4]. Profit - Ethylene cracking profit was N/A [4]. - C4 extraction profit was N/A [4]. - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,259, up 375 [4]. - Import profit was 547, up 25 from the previous day and 311 for the week [4]. - Export profit was - 1,287, down 22 from the previous day and up 226 for the week [4]. Production Profit - Styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,288, up 100 from the previous day and down 163 for the week [4]. - ABS production profit was N/A [4]. - SBS production profit was - 465, unchanged from the previous day and down 45 for the week [4]

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16775 1896 8.87 三月 16855 1944 11.88 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 406.32 跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/17 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -520 -470 -470 -560 理论价差 564 1026 1498 1969 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -355 -340 -320 -340 理论价差 220 346 472 598 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -10 35 80 120 理论价差 220 342 463 584 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -115 -105 -70 -35 理论价差 210 316 421 527 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -1900 -1700 -1370 -1140 锡 5-1 价差 1290 理论价差 6602 期现套利跟踪 2025/12/17 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 765 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/17 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | | | | MISCLABO METAL FAEST | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11/14 | 指标 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | | -27 | | 12/10 -40 | 12/12 -42 | | 12/15 -53 | 12/16 16 | 日度变化 69 | 博 | | 华东基差(镇江库) | | | 113 | | 100 | 18 | | 17 | 86 | રત | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | | | ਰੇਤੇ | | 20 | -32 | | -33 | 36 | રત | | | 基差&月差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | -39 | 01-03 | | -45 | | -36 | | | -30 | -52 | 5 | | | -26 | 02-03 | | | | -18 | -18 | | -19 | -22 | -3 | | | ...