| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/04 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/28 | 2230 | 2230 | 2400 | 2370 | 45 | 0 291 | 2850 | 2900 | 312 | 15 | | 2025/08/29 | 2230 | 2220 | 2394 | 2370 | 29 | 15 276 | 2850 | 2900 | 304 | 15 | | 2025/09/01 | 2230 | 2230 | 2388 | 2380 | 37 | 15 285 | 2850 | 2900 | 305 | 15 | | 2025/09/02 | - | 2230 | 2388 | 2390 | 30 | 25 294 | 285 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to increase for the sixth consecutive month due to production exceeding exports, although demand is recovering. The inventory is estimated to reach 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean planting area is expected to expand by 1.5%, which is considered "limited" compared to the historical average increase of 3.5%. However, with stable average yield, Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [1]. - The 2025/26 rapeseed production in EU 27 + UK is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 3.5% increase from last year. Favorable weather conditions have improved the growth and harvest prospects [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **Malaysia Palm Oil**: The estimated median of nine traders, planters, and analysts shows that the palm oil inventory is likely to reach the highest level since December 2023 at 2.2 million tons, with an increase of 4.06% from July. The production in August is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July. Exports are expected to grow by 10.7% to 1.45 million tons. The lower price of crude palm oil compared to soybean oil has encouraged Indian buyers to increase purchases before the upcoming festival season. The MPOB will release monthly supply - demand data on September 10 [1]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The Dutch Rabobank reports that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area will expand by 1.5%, less than the historical average. Assuming stable average yield, Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans, while the 2024/25 production was 169.7 million tons [1]. - **EU 27 + UK Rapeseed**: A research institution's report shows that the 2025/26 rapeseed production in EU 27 + UK is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous estimate. The mild winter and cool spring have improved crop growth, and the rainfall before the sowing season is expected to increase soil moisture [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 28 to September 3, 2025 are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [2]. Oilseeds and Oils Futures Spreads - No specific content is provided in the given text [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [3] Group 2: Main Contract Data - BR Main Contract Closing Price on September 3: 11,885, with a weekly increase of 175 [4] - BR Main Contract Position on September 3: 28,944, a daily decrease of 2,339 and a weekly decrease of 10,968 [4] - BR Main Contract Trading Volume on September 3: 105,069, a daily increase of 1,944 and a weekly increase of 10,070 [4] - BR Warehouse Receipt Quantity on September 3: 12,540, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 70 [4] - BR Virtual - Real Ratio on September 3: 11.54, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4] Group 3: Basis and Spread Data - BR Basis and Spread: The 8 - 9 month spread on September 3 was 250, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly decrease of 25; the 9 - 10 month spread was 0, a daily decrease of 80 and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - BR Different Types of Basis: For example, the butadiene - styrene basis on September 3 was 515, a daily decrease of 115 and a weekly decrease of 175 [4] Group 4: Spot Price Data - BR Spot Price: Shandong market price on September 3 was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100; Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, unchanged [4] - BD Spot Price: Shandong market price on September 3 was 9,600, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 100; Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500, unchanged [4] Group 5: Processing and Import - Export Profit Data - BR Processing and Import - Export Profits: Spot processing profit on September 3 was - 92, a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly decrease of 2; import profit was - 86,225, a daily decrease of 119 and a weekly increase of 381 [4] - BD Processing and Import - Export Profits: Carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data on September 3 was N/A; butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was 236, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 30; import profit was 416, a daily increase of 14 and a weekly increase of 125 [4] Group 6: Downstream Profit Data - BR Downstream Profits: ABS production profit data on September 3 was N/A; SBS (791 - H) production profit was unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 125 [4] Group 7: Inter - Variety and Intra - Variety Spread Data - Inter - Variety Spread: For example, the Thai mixed - BR spread on September 3 was 3,000, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - Intra - Variety Spread: The BR standard - non - standard price spread on September 3 was 250, unchanged [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The burning season is gradually ending, but demand remains weak. The cheapest delivery location is in East China, where supply is expected to be tight, demand to improve, and import costs to rise, leading to an overall stable and upward trend [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7) [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Price and Spread Changes - On September 3, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: South China LPG -20, East China LPG 0, Shandong LPG +20, propane CFR South China +2, propane CIF Japan +7, MB propane spot 0, CP forecast contract price +2, Shandong alkylated oil +20, and paper import profit -38, with the main basis -15 [1]. - The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI, CP monthly spreads fluctuate, MB monthly spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external spread fluctuates, PG - CP reaches 106, PG - FEI reaches 85, FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and closes [1]. - FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventories are being depleted, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and refinery inventories increase but are generally controllable [1]. - PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), with Wanhua Phase II under maintenance and Quanzhou Guoheng restarting at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. Alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0) [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda -55, Wuzhongda -65, and Donghua +440 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: After the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load remained stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. With increasing unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester start - up rate, and healthy inventory, the near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to opportunities of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2]. - **MEG**: Near - end domestic oil - based production increased, coal - based start - up rate declined slightly, overall load rose, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, downstream stocking increased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, port inventory is expected to continue to decline, but in the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The valuation is greatly affected by the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [6]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The start - up rate increased slightly, sales decreased cyclically, and inventory remained stable. The start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished - product inventory increased. The short - term start - up rate is expected to remain high, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Styrene**: The prices of related raw materials and products changed, and the domestic profit of styrene fluctuated [10]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: Crude oil price decreased by 1.5, naphtha increased by 4, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 3, PTA domestic spot decreased by 20, and PTA processing spread decreased by 7 [2]. - **Device Changes**: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Taihua restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device is planned for maintenance [2]. - **Weekly View**: After TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load was stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. TA unexpected maintenance increased, polyester start - up continued to rise, and raw material PX supply gradually recovered. The near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to improve [2]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 2, MEG inner - market price decreased by 33, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 33 [6]. - **Device Changes**: A 150,000 - ton MEG device of Xinjiang Tianying restarted, and a 300,000 - ton device of Shaanxi Weihua was under maintenance [6]. - **Weekly View**: Domestic oil - based production increased, coal - based start - up rate declined slightly, overall load rose, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, downstream stocking increased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, port inventory is expected to continue to decline, but in the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, short - fiber profit increased by 15, and pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 20 [6]. - **Device Changes**: None mentioned. - **Weekly View**: The start - up rate increased slightly, sales decreased cyclically, and inventory remained stable. The start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished - product inventory increased. The short - term start - up rate is expected to remain high, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of RU main contract increased by 125 [6]. - **Key Indicators Changes**: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 85, and the processing profit of Thai standard rubber remained unchanged [6]. - **Daily View**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene price remained unchanged, pure - benzene CFR China decreased by 14, and styrene CFR China decreased by 15 [10]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene decreased to - 431, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 110 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. It mainly contains data on various iron ore varieties, including their latest prices, daily and weekly changes, import profits, and futures contract information. 3. Content Summary by Category Iron Ore Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ores**: Newman powder is priced at 771 with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly increase of 4; PB powder is at 775, up 6 daily and 5 weekly; Mac powder is 760, rising 5 daily and 3 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 740, down 1 daily and unchanged weekly; mainstream mixed powder is 712, up 5 daily and 4 weekly; Super Special powder is 676, up 6 daily and 16 weekly; Carajás powder is 887, up 8 daily and 8 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is 802, unchanged daily and down 5 weekly; Brazilian coarse ore IOC6 is 780, up 6 daily and 2 weekly; Brazilian coarse ore SSFG is 785, up 6 daily and 2 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 897, up 7 daily and 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 729, down 1 daily and unchanged weekly; Karara concentrate is 897, up 7 daily and 10 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 745, up 6 daily and 5 weekly; KUMBA powder is 834, up 6 daily and 5 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 621, up 6 daily and 16 weekly; Atlas powder is 707, up 5 daily and 4 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 986, up 4 daily and 3 weekly [1]. Iron Ore Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 777.0, up 5.5 daily and 1.5 weekly; i2605 is 754.5, up 4.5 daily and 1.0 weekly; i2509 is 813.0, up 11.0 daily and 16.5 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 99.22, down 3.30 daily and 2.38 weekly; FE05 is 96.81, down 3.28 daily and 2.38 weekly; FE09 is 102.55, down 0.95 daily and up 0.22 weekly [1]. Spread Information - **DCE Contract Spreads**: The monthly spread of i2601 is 36.0, with the latest value at 38.7, down 3.3 daily and 0.4 weekly; for i2605, it's 22.5, with 61.2, down 2.3 daily and up 0.1 weekly; for i2509, it's -58.5, with 2.7, down 8.8 daily and 15.4 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contract Spreads**: The spread of FE01 is 3.33, with -28.0, down 0.3 daily and up 17.1 weekly; for FE05, it's 2.41, with -30.1, up 1.0 daily and 18.0 weekly; for FE09, it's -5.74, with -24.3, down 6.3 daily and up 6.1 weekly [1].

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/8/27 | 2025/9/2 | | 2025/9/3 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/8/27 | 2025/9/2 | | 2025/9/3 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1210.0 | 1170.0 | 1180.0 | -30.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1375.0 | 1347.0 | 1357.0 | -18.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1200.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1307.0 | 1267.0 | 1276.0 | -31.0 | 9.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1450.0 | 1320.0 | 1320.0 | -130.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1191.0 | 1152.0 | 1158.0 | -33.0 | 6.0 | | ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/04 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/08/28 2249 2286 2333 原点 2065 2266 2166 ~ 2287 2025/08/29 2251 2332 2065 2263 2165 2025/09/01 2286 2245 2320 2061 2251 2153 2142 2025/09/02 2231 2318 2058 2248 2281 2025/09/03 |容 2226 2318 2057 2248 2282 2139 - 临 A 环比 -5 0 -1 0 1 -3 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格 (不含税) 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 3,600元/吨 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 ◆ 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on the delivery warehouse, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread fluctuated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [3][4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess, and over - heated sentiment should be vigilant. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on the domestic heavy crude oil supply, providing some support for the Asian fuel oil valuation [4]. - This week, LU maintained a volatile trend, and the external MF0.5 basis began to rebound. Opportunities for the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil to widen in the fourth quarter could be focused on [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $8.64, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by $8.39, and other price - related indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Data**: The prices of Singapore 380cst M1 and other related fuel oil products also changed during the same period. For example, from August 28 to September 3, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $11.56, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $11.75 [1][9]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $6.17, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $6.40 [2]. - **Domestic FU Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the price of FU 01 decreased by 7, the price of FU 05 decreased by 10, and the price of FU 09 decreased by 8 [2]. - **Domestic LU Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the price of LU 01 decreased by 17, the price of LU 05 decreased by 10, and the price of LU 09 increased by 13 [3].

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2][10][18] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11][19] - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [3][11][19] Core Data Futures Data - **Contract Prices**: On September 2, the BU main contract was at 3551, up 17 from the previous day and 39 week - on - week. BU06 was at 3457, up 27 daily and 82 weekly. BU09 was at 3543, down 4 daily and 2 weekly. BU12 was at 3492, up 26 daily and 60 weekly. BU03 was at 3468, up 38 daily and 74 weekly [4][12][20]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume on September 2 was 349,892, up 12,718 from the previous day and 92,337 week - on - week. The open interest was 491,894, with a daily increase of 35,558 and a weekly increase of 80,407. The inventory was 29,790, unchanged from the previous day and down 11,500 week - on - week [4][12][20]. Spot Market Data - **Market Prices**: On September 2, the Shandong market price was 3540, up 30 from the previous day and 20 week - on - week. The East China market price was 3700, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 week - on - week. The South China market price was 3530, up 10 from the previous day and 50 week - on - week. The North China market price was 3650, up 10 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week. The Northeast market price was 3870, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 week - on - week [4][12][20]. - **Price Spreads**: The Shandong - East China spread was - 160, up 30 from the previous day and 40 week - on - week. The Shandong - Northeast spread was - 330, up 30 from the previous day and 30 week - on - week. The East China - South China spread was 170, down 10 from the previous day and 70 week - on - week [4][12][20]. Basis and Calendar Spread Data - **Basis**: The Shandong basis was - 11, up 19 from the previous day and down 19 week - on - week. The East China basis was 149, down 11 from the previous day and 59 week - on - week. The South China basis was - 21, down 1 from the previous day and up 11 week - on - week [4][12][20]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The 03 - 06 spread was 11, up 11 from the previous day and down 11 week - on - week. The 06 - 09 spread was - 86, up 31 from the previous day and 87 week - on - week. The 09 - 12 spread was 51, down 30 from the previous day and 62 week - on - week. The 12 - 03 spread was 24, down 12 from the previous day and 14 week - on - week [4][12][20]. Crack Spread and Profit Data - **Crack Spreads and Profits**: The asphalt Brent crack spread was - 8, up 28 from the previous day and down 11 week - on - week. The asphalt Ma Rui profit was - 75, up 25 from the previous day and down 11 week - on - week. The general refinery comprehensive profit was 361, up 21 from the previous day and down 55 week - on - week. The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 656, up 25 from the previous day and down 34 week - on - week [4][12][20]. - **Import Profits**: The import profit from South Korea to East China was - 52, up 75 from the previous day and 74 week - on - week. The import profit from Singapore to South China was - 919, up 86 from the previous day and 141 week - on - week [4][12][20]. Related Commodity Prices - **Brent Crude Oil**: On September 2, the price of Brent crude oil was 68.2, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.9 week - on - week [4][12][20]. - **Shandong Gasoline Price**: The Shandong gasoline market price on September 2 was 7525, up 8 from the previous day and down 93 week - on - week [4][12][20].