有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/18 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 2025/12/16 -375 3947 115035 45784 -1413.46 -104.22 42.0 48.0 -9.52 166600 64400 2025/12/17 -330 4353 115035 44877 - -196.60 44.0 50.0 - 166925 64450 变化 45 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on December 17, 2025, was 5506.00 [4] - The closing prices of the main contract from December 11 - 17, 2025, were 5586.00, 5534.00, 5572.00, 5468.00, and 5506.00 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 2.75938%, -0.93090%, 0.68666%, -1.86648%, and 0.69495% compared to the previous day [4] - The Shandong Yinxing basis and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis on December 17, 2025, were both 34 [4] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion was 16.13, for Canadian Lion was -360.55, and for Chilean Yinxing was 52.78. The corresponding port dollar prices were 780, 730, and 680, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6300, 5525, and 5540 respectively [5] Group 3: Pulp Price and Index Information - From December 11 - 17, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemi - mechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [5] - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and life paper (life index) prices showed little change from December 12 - 17, 2025. The life index changed from 846 to 850 and then back to 846 [5] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and life paper changed from December 12 - 17, 2025. The life paper profit margin changed from 1.6602% to 2.0354%, 2.9505%, and then 2.8389%, with a change of -0.1116 [5] Group 4: Pulp Price Difference Information - From December 11 - 17, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemi - mechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp changed. For example, the softwood - hardwood price difference decreased from 900 to 875 [5]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2025/12/11 | 328.55 | 375.86 | -8.95 | 609.75 | -233.89 | 22.88 | 47.31 | | 2025/12/12 | 328.74 | 376.62 | -8.97 | 608.68 | -232.06 | 22.87 | 47.88 | | 2025/12/15 | 320.55 | 375.22 | -9.66 | 602.86 | -227.64 | 22.59 | 54.67 | | 2025/12/16 | 316. ...

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Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on December 18, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2]. 1. Futures Market 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Changes - EC2512 closed at 1632.0 with a 0.03% increase, EC2602 at 1699.8 with a 0.77% increase, EC2604 at 1124.1 with a 1.02% increase, EC2606 at 1283.7 with a 0.49% decrease, EC2608 at 1448.1 with a 0.98% decrease, and EC2610 at 1045.2 with a 0.38% increase [2]. 1.2 Futures Contract Positions and Changes - The positions of EC2512 decreased by 348 to 2218, EC2602 decreased by 12 to 31971, EC2604 decreased by 869 to 19059, EC2606 increased by 1 to 2306, EC2608 decreased by 26 to 1325, and EC2610 increased by 84 to 4795 [2]. 1.3 Futures Month - spreads - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 507.9, down 10.9 from the previous day and 83.2 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous day and 112.7 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 was 55.7, up 1.6 from the previous day and 29.5 week - on - week [2]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Indexes - The SCFI (European line) was 1538 US dollars/TEU on December 12, 2025, up 9.86% from the previous period; CCFI was 1470.55 points, up 1.59%; NCFI was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% [2]. 2.2 European Line Spot Quotes - In Week 51, MSK opened at 2400 (up 200 from the previous period), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars; in Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (down 100). In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively. MSC opened at 2864 US dollars (up 200), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4]. 3. Market Analysis and Suggestions 3.1 Overall Market Trend - There has been no obvious trending market recently, and the futures market has fluctuated widely around the news of MSK's cabin opening [2]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - After the 02 contract, the market depends on the spot trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of the freight rate in January. Historically, the freight rate peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase [2]. 3.3 Trading Suggestions - Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, the downside space for the 04 contract is small, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot or recovers the basis. For the far - month contracts, a positive spread trading strategy can be considered, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [2][3]. 4. Related News - On December 17, the head of Mossad claimed that Iran still desired to build nuclear weapons, increasing the possibility of further conflict between the two countries [5].

10，成交尚可 玻璃产销：沙河79，湖北79，华东98，华南104 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/16 2025/12/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/16 2025/12/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1110.0 | 1140.0 | 1140.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1158.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1100.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1094.0 | 1133.0 | 1127.0 | 33.0 | -6.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1218.0 ...

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | 2025/12/12 | 5460 | 5370 | 5295 | 246 | 139 | 318 | 2101 | | 2025/12/15 | 5450 | 5360 | 5295 | 243 | 177 | 356 | 2101 | | 2025/12/16 | 5420 | 5340 | 5260 | 287 | 188 | 367 | 2101 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 研究中心农产品团队 2025 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a rebound in both port and inland markets, a slight strengthening of the basis, slow unloading, and a continuous two - week inventory drawdown at ports with a large floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory build - up later. It was difficult to reduce imports from December to January, and the futures contract 01 offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is recommended to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical sectors are reducing inventory, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is volatile, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on contract 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of contract 01 is maintained at - 270, and the ex - works basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. The static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the thermal coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price fluctuated between 2092 - 2123, and the daily change on the 16th was - 3 compared to the previous day. The Northwest discounted - to - futures price decreased from 2580 to 2555 on the 16th, with a daily change of - 18 [2]. - **Key Information**: Iranian plants' shutdown, port and inland market rebound, basis strengthening, slow unloading, port inventory drawdown, and expected future inventory build - up. The futures contract 01 offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 745 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6530 to 6460, with a daily change of - 20 on the 16th compared to the previous day. The East China LD price decreased from 8500 to 8250 [7]. - **Key Information**: Neutral inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies, upstream and coal - chemical inventory reduction, stable social inventory, neutral downstream inventory. Stable overseas markets, import profit around - 200, weakening LD, and recent decrease in domestic linear production [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6050 to 6030 on the 16th. The East China PP price fluctuated between 6085 - 6220, and the daily change on the 16th was - 60 compared to the previous day [7]. - **Key Information**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory reduction, neutral non - standard price spread, good export performance, PDH profit around - 400, stable powder production start - up rate, and expected slight increase in subsequent supply [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2550 to 2450 on the 16th. The calcium carbide - based East China PVC price increased from 4310 to 4470, with a daily change of 50 on the 16th compared to the previous day [7]. - **Key Information**: Stable basis, seasonal weakening of downstream operating rates, mid - upstream inventory accumulation, seasonal overhauls in Northwest plants, and attention to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined, with a rapid weakening of global supply and demand. On - land and on - water inventories increased significantly, and the Dubai monthly spread further weakened. Geopolitically, the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations continued. There were rumors that Russia had found more ways to export crude oil. The CPC No. 3 berth was expected to resume on the 17th. Global gasoline and diesel cracks declined, US refinery operations recovered to over 94%, and domestic refinery operations fluctuated. The fundamental surplus intensified. If there were no new geopolitical changes, the surplus in the first quarter would be close to that during the pandemic, and short - term monthly spreads and absolute prices should be short - allocated [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From December 10 - 16, 2025, WTI decreased by $1.55, BRENT decreased by $1.64, and DUBAI decreased by $0.71. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 6.00, and domestic diesel decreasing by 6.00 [3] 3.2 News - Trump ordered a "full and complete blockade" of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, which marked an escalation of pressure on Maduro. A sanctioned tanker was seized by the US near the Venezuelan coast last week. The discount of Venezuelan Merey crude oil has widened to $21 per barrel lower than Brent crude oil, compared to $14 - 15 per barrel last week [3][4] 3.3 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 12 was - 932.2 barrels (expected - 219.7 barrels, previous - 477.9 barrels). Other inventory data for gasoline, refined oil, etc. are also provided for different time intervals [4]