饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 3 月 27 日辽宁现货 14.3-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-14.9 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.4-16 元/ 公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。月底月初企业控量操作，但肥 标价差收窄，价格涨高后二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端 消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压，不过猪价跌至 14 元/公斤附 近，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入库， 均支撑价格，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注二育和屠宰冻品入库 介入情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性 能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，二季 度供应同比增加，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局 下，猪价下跌风险加剧，向成本回归，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入 库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，接近均衡区间 上限，供应压力仍大，远期价格承压。策略上，期货贴水反映弱势预期，短 期供应压力后 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - As A-shares are about to enter the earnings report period and there is uncertainty regarding the implementation of Trump's tariff policy on April 2, market risk appetite may experience periodic fluctuations. Although there may be short-term corrections, this will not change the long-term development trend of the market. IC and IM may offer better entry opportunities after moderate corrections [1]. - Recently, the bond market lacks negative factors, while there are relatively more positive news. In the short term, attention should be paid to the profit-taking pressure that may result from overly consistent market expectations. However, before clear fundamental signals emerge, overall, the bulls still hold the upper hand [3]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - The stock index is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [4]. Group 4: Market Review - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 Index fell 0.26%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 Index fell 0.50%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 Index rose 0.10%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.42% [6]. - The 10-year main contract rose 0.27%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.18%, the 30-year main contract rose 0.63%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.09% [9]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is below the 5-day moving average [7]. - The T continuous contract closed above the 5-day moving average [10]. Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/26 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,891.80 | -0.26 | 45,817 | 154,083 | | 2025/03/26 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,676.00 | -0.50 | 22,285 | 50,488 | | 2025/03/26 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,895.80 | 0.10 | 46,238 | 71,729 | | 2025/03/26 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,129.40 | 0.42 | 123,686 | 155,502 | | 2025/03/26 | 10-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.00 | 0.27 | 68,604 | 175,285 | | 2025/03/26 | 5-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.73 | 0.18 | 50,567 | 153,356 | | 2025/03/26 | 30-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.77 | 0.63 | 102,815 | 100,975 | | 2025/03/26 | 2-year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.09 | 37,430 | 95,653 | [12]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：区间震荡 全球新年度产量目前预期波动幅度较小，国内供应并不特别宽裕，或有 略微紧张趋向，目前最大的变数是在国内宏观刺激政策的落地，国内经 济提振消费是否变好，中美贸易壁垒对出口担忧形成博弈，特朗普上台， 美国对华关税再度增加，累计加征 20%关税，不利于出口，影响经济， 后续关税影响存在长期性和不确定性，市场谨慎心态或持续，国内进入 金三银四传统消费旺季，冲淡了下游对原料的备货信心，前期国内 3 月两会召开，市场信心有所提振，短中期底部空间有限，后市来看，美 联储在利率政策上面是否存在变数，总体市场担忧仍存，总体在供需偏 紧基本面及中美关税加征背景下，期价维持区间震荡运行，等待反弹机 会。企业在风险管理策略方面，采取合适的期货和期权策略进行规避风 险。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡调整 现货方面，PTA 现货价格+45 在 4905 元/吨，现货基差+7 在 05 合于 贴水 5 元，成本端有支撑，现货供应稳定，主港交割及仓单报盘 05 平 水-贴水 5、10-15，递盘 05 贴水 10 附近，4 月中下主港交割报 05 升 水 10-15，递盘 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 报道称特朗普考虑出台"两步走"关税计划。抢在"4 月 2 日"前，英国、 印度考虑降低对美税收，"讨好"特朗普。股指成交量下滑，市场流动性与 风偏回落，股指或震荡运行，IF 震荡偏强，IM 震荡偏弱。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 周二，市场围绕资金面呈现窄幅震荡。从驱动市场的因素来看，季末前的供 给问题已被市场逐步消化，同时当前处于数据发布的真空期，且权益市场在 下月初关税落地之前难以形成单边上涨的趋势，这些因素总体上对债市较为 有利。然而，今年以来，资金利率中枢一直是投资者心中的一道障碍，使得 短期利率无法打开下行的空间，并限制了市场对长期利率的预期。资金方面 的不确定性导致市场从之前的乐观状态转变为相对审慎的态度，债券收益率 可能继续在相对较窄的区间内波动。 ◆ 策略建议： 止盈观望。 2025-03-26 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 联系人： 彭博 咨询电话：(027) 65777169 从业编号：F3080600 1 / 8 研究咨询部 股指 ◆ 市场回顾： 研究员： 张志恒 ...

◆ 铜： 截至 3 月 25 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约上涨 1.17%至 81910 元/吨。美 关税政策对市场的影响延续，3 月 25 日晚间 Comex 铜期货价格飙升至 历史新高，交易员开始将美国总统特朗普可能对铜加征高额进口关税的 预期计入价格中，贸易商正将铜大量转运至美国。冶炼企业检修减产牵 动市场的神经，但暂无后续供给端的消息出来。随着铜价持续上涨，下 游接货意愿减弱，现货升水周尾有所承压。消费表现一般，但由于国内 部分冶炼厂仍积极出口，国内库存维持去库趋势，不过幅度有所放缓。 宏观因素搅动全球供需格局，未来几周预计将有 10 万-15 万吨精炼铜的 运抵美国，到时市场或面临套利压力。高铜价下国内市场需求释放仍显 迟缓，连续拉涨后铜价存在高位回调的风险，但传统消费旺季即将来临， 而铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面临较大的原料保供和保本压力，排 产仍有降低的可能性，铜价整体易涨难跌。技术上看，沪铜主力合约维 持上涨趋势，但存回调迹象。建议多单逢高减仓，不追高，回调补仓。 有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铝： 截至 3 月 25 日收盘，沪铝主力 05 合约上涨 0.02%至 20705 元/吨。整 体 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 3 月 26 日辽宁现货 14.3-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-14.9 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.4-16 元/ 公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。3 月生猪出栏增加，前期规模 企业出栏平缓，月底企业出栏或增加，目前肥标价差收窄，价格涨高后二次 育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏 损，猪价上方承压，但猪价跌至 14 元/公斤附近，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢 低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入库，均支撑价格，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注二育和屠宰冻品入库介入情况。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，二季度供应同比增加，叠加生 猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧， 向成本回归，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入库以及饲料价格波动对价 格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，接近均衡区间上限，供应压力仍大，远 期价格承压。策略上 ...

日度观点: ◆ PVC： 3 月 25 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5127 元/吨（-32），常州市场价 4920 元/吨（+20），主力基差-207 元/吨（+52），广州市场价 5060 元/吨（-30）， 杭州市场价 4970 元/吨（+20）；兰炭中料 675（-35）元/吨，乌海电石 2700（0）元/吨，乙烯 7300（0）元/吨。3 月 18 日，亚洲地区 PVC 4 月 船期预售报价环比小幅下调 20-40 美元/吨不等，中国台湾地区主要报价 CIF 印度环比下调 40 美元/吨在 700 美元/吨，CFR 中国大陆主港环比下 跌 25 美元/吨在 700 美元/吨，其他地区环比下调 20 美元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且 出口体量总体占比小（12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润 高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能 过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4-5 月检存有春检预期，内需季节性恢 复，出口以价换量持稳状态，目前估值中性，预计 PVC 反弹空间有限， 关注宏观和黑色板块带动。后期关注新增投产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to oscillate, and treasury bonds are recommended for timely profit - taking [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to oscillate; iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly; coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate at low levels [5][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a suggestion to reduce long positions on rallies and add on pullbacks; aluminum is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 20300 - 21000 for the main contract; nickel is recommended for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is expected to oscillate strongly; silver and gold are expected to oscillate [11][12][15][17][18][19]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; caustic soda is expected to oscillate; urea is recommended for interval operation; methanol is expected to oscillate; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [21][23][25][27][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; apples are expected to oscillate strongly; PTA is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to oscillate weakly; eggs are expected to have strong support in the near - term and be shorted on rallies in the far - term; corn is expected to oscillate strongly; soybean meal is recommended for interval operation; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [33][36][37][39][40]. Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including macro - financial, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton textile, and agricultural and livestock sectors. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply and demand, and international trade situations to provide investment strategies and market outlooks for each product [5][7][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to Trump's possible "two - step" tariff plan, the decline in trading volume, and the drop in market liquidity and risk appetite, index futures are expected to oscillate, with IF oscillating strongly and IM oscillating weakly [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although factors are favorable for the bond market, the central level of capital interest rates restricts the downward space of short - term bonds and the imagination space of long - term bonds. Bond yields may oscillate, and it is recommended to take profits in a timely manner [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With the policy basically in line with expectations, weak economic data, stable production, rising demand, and slow inventory reduction, rebar is expected to oscillate, with its price below the electric - arc furnace flat - rate cost and above the valley - rate cost and long - process cost [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by steel mill production restrictions and macro - economic sentiment, iron ore prices oscillated strongly on Monday. However, with pessimistic demand expectations and the possible implementation of steel production control policies, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply is stable, and demand is limited by the steel - coke game. Coke supply is high, and demand is affected by market sentiment and the low - inventory strategy of steel mills. Both are expected to oscillate at low levels [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the impact of US tariff policies and the slowdown in downstream demand, copper prices may face a high - level correction. However, due to the approaching traditional consumption season and the long - term demand logic, copper prices are generally easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to adjust positions [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of the ore end is improving, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Although demand is rising and inventory has turned around, affected by US tariffs, aluminum prices may still have room for correction, and it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Affected by policy changes in the nickel ore end and macro - economic factors, nickel prices may oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: Although the supply of tin ore is tight, the resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia may increase supply. The recovery of the semiconductor industry may support demand, and it is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, weak economic data, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies, the market's expectation of the Fed's early interest - rate cut has increased, and precious metals prices have continued to rise. It is recommended to build positions on dips [19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Affected by weak demand, high inventory, and new production plans, PVC is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as new production, spring maintenance, and downstream resumption [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Due to the weakening of end - point expectations, high inventory, and rising liquid chlorine prices, caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as inventory reduction and alumina production [24]. - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply, stable demand, and smooth inventory reduction, urea prices have risen. However, it is necessary to prevent price corrections, and the 05 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1720 - 1880 [25]. - **Methanol**: With high domestic production, sufficient supply, and a slight increase in downstream demand, methanol prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as production reduction and international crude oil prices [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Although demand has improved, supply has increased rapidly, and soda ash prices are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [28][29]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: According to the USDA report, the supply and demand of global cotton have increased slightly, and with weak market consumption, cotton is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Apples**: With good apple出库 and low inventory, apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly [31]. - **PTA**: Affected by the trend of crude oil prices, the restart of maintenance devices, and the high - level operation of downstream polyester, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly and follow the cost - end crude oil [31][32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With an increase in supply in March, limited terminal consumption, and support from breeding and slaughtering, pig prices are expected to oscillate around 14 yuan/kg in the short term. In the long term, supply will increase, and prices will be under pressure [35]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, egg supply and demand are increasing, and the market is oscillating at a low level. In the long term, supply will increase, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 05 contract and take a short - term view on the 08 and 09 contracts [37]. - **Corn**: With a decrease in selling pressure, high purchasing enthusiasm, and a decrease in new production and imports, corn prices are expected to be strong in the short term and may rise in the long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract [38][39]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, domestic supply and demand are tight, and prices are supported. In the medium term, prices may be weak due to the large arrival volume from South America. In the long term, prices may be easy to rise due to increased import costs and possible reduction in planting area, and it is recommended for interval operation and long - position layout [39][40]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the trends of soybean and palm oils are oscillating, and rapeseed oil is strong. In the medium term, prices may fall. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean and palm oil 05 contracts, pay attention to the pressure of rapeseed oil at 9300, and conduct arbitrage operations [45].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏强运行，杭州中天螺纹 3280，环比前一日 上涨 10 元/吨，基差 60（-6）。宏观方面，两会政策力度基本符合预期， 不过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善；产 业方面，螺纹钢产量持稳、需求继续回升，库存连续第三周去化，不过去 库速度并不快；海外方面，3 月 12 日，美国对进口钢铝征收 25%关税生 效，欧盟、印度等也开始提高贸易壁垒，继续关注 4 月 2 日对等关税， 据媒体报道，特朗普计划推出的对等关税措施可能比外界预期的要温和。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本，高于电炉谷 电成本与长流程成本，静态估值处于中性水平；驱动方面，国内政策已 经明朗、需求强度仍处于验证期，短期外需属于扰动因素，预计价格震 荡运行为主。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，铁矿期货价格震荡运行，主要受新疆钢厂开启粗钢限产，以及宏 观降息情绪利好影响。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 776 元/湿吨（-2）。普 氏 62%指数 102.55 美元/吨（-0.60），月均 102.17 美元/吨 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：区间震荡 全球新年度产量目前预期波动幅度较小，国内供应并不特别宽裕，或有 略微紧张趋向，目前最大的变数是在国内宏观刺激政策的落地，国内经 济提振消费是否变好，中美贸易壁垒对出口担忧形成博弈，特朗普上台， 美国对华关税再度增加，累计加征 20%关税，不利于出口，影响经济， 后续关税影响存在长期性和不确定性，市场谨慎心态或持续，国内进入 金三银四传统消费旺季，冲淡了下游对原料的备货信心，前期国内 3 月两会召开，市场信心有所提振，短中期底部空间有限，后市来看，美 联储在利率政策上面是否存在变数，总体市场担忧仍存，总体在供需偏 紧基本面及中美关税加征背景下，期价维持区间震荡运行，等待反弹机 会。企业在风险管理策略方面，采取合适的期货和期权策略进行规避风 险。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：低位调整 原油方面：美国计划进一步加强对伊朗的制裁,同时美国计划补充战略 储备，国际油价小幅反弹。现货方面：PTA 现货价格+25 在 4800 元/ 吨，现货基差+14 在 2505-10。PX 收 834.67 美元/吨，PTA 现货加工 区间参考 282.68 元/吨。开 ...