Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: On Thursday, the underlying assets showed a volatile upward trend. The Shanghai 50ETF representing large - cap stocks fluctuated sideways after a冲高回落 and closed above the intraday moving average, with the buying and selling forces basically balanced. The CSI 1000 representing small - cap stocks rebounded after hitting the bottom and closed near the intraday moving average, also with balanced buying and selling forces. The Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF had the largest intraday increase of 1.11%, while the CSI 1000 had the smallest increase of 0.22%. The rapid back - and - forth movement of the market on Thursday indicates market resilience and the presence of a supporting force, which is fundamentally different from the market situation before September last year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a rapid recovery on Wednesday, the yields of spot bonds at various tenors retreated on Thursday morning. This was due to large - scale net withdrawals during the quarter - end and the fact that yields reached the previous intensive lock - in area after the rapid recovery, leading to many short - term profit - taking trades. However, the overall retracement of spot bonds was not significant. There were still no substantial positive or negative factors throughout the day. The main cause of market fluctuations was institutional concentrated profit - taking due to the overly steep yield recovery slope. Currently, all factors are still favorable for the bond market, but the short - term market odds are insufficient, making institutional behavior more short - term and more sensitive to both positive and negative news, which amplifies the two - way intraday market fluctuations [4]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The market is in a wide - range oscillation, and the short - term style is suitable for IH [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: For allocation, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being; for trading, one can do band trading [5]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 0.21%, the futures of the Shanghai 50 index main contract rose 0.46%, the futures of the CSI 500 index main contract rose 0.22%, and the futures of the CSI 1000 index main contract rose 0.01% [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.12%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [10]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index is below the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The T continuous main contract closed above the 5 - day moving average [11]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/27 | CSI 300 Continuous Main | 3,904.60 | 0.21 | 56,873 | 156,732 | | 2025/03/27 | Shanghai 50 Continuous Main | 2,690.60 | 0.46 | 30,381 | 55,492 | | 2025/03/27 | CSI 500 Continuous Main | 5,922.20 | 0.22 | 52,431 | 75,832 | | 2025/03/27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Main | 6,143.40 | 0.01 | 151,417 | 167,954 | | 2025/03/27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 107.89 | - 0.01 | 65,109 | 172,454 | | 2025/03/27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 105.64 | - 0.04 | 42,270 | 155,661 | | 2025/03/27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 116.32 | - 0.12 | 104,678 | 99,307 | | 2025/03/27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 102.43 | - 0.01 | 28,220 | 94,551 | [13]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 3 月 27 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5129 元/吨（+11），常州市场价 4920 元/吨（0），主力基差-209 元/吨（-11），广州市场价 5050 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4970 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4-5 月检存有春检预期，内需季节性恢复，出口以价换量持稳状 态，目前估值中性，预计 PVC 反弹空间有限，关注宏观和黑色板块带动。 后期关注新增投产进度、春检落地情况、下游复工以及出口情况等，政 策端关注国内货币、财政、能耗等政策情况，以及美联储降息、特朗普 政策变化等。 ◆ 烧碱： 近日盘面相对弱势，主要是 05 终点预期转弱，多头接货成本高压制，液 氯价格上涨对烧碱形成压制。3 月 27 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for profit - taking and waiting [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to fluctuate; iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to add long positions on dips; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,300 - 21,000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly; gold and silver are expected to fluctuate [1][11][13][15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC is expected to fluctuate; soda ash recommends holding short positions in call options; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate; urea and methanol are recommended for range - bound operations [1][20][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are recommended to hedge on rallies for the near - term contracts and short on rallies for the far - term contracts; corn is recommended to go long on dips; soybean meal is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [1][28][30][31]. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international trade situations. For example, the macro - financial market is influenced by central bank policies and market sentiment; the black building materials market is affected by production, consumption, and international trade policies; the non - ferrous metals market is related to supply disruptions and demand expectations; the energy and chemical market is affected by supply - demand balances and cost factors; the cotton and textile industry chain is influenced by global supply - demand forecasts; and the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by production, consumption, and trade policies [5][7][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On Thursday, the underlying assets showed a fluctuating upward trend. The Shanghai 50ETF and the CSI 1000 had different intraday performances, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF having the largest intraday increase. The market shows resilience, and it is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a rapid recovery on Wednesday, the yields of spot bonds rebounded on Thursday morning. The main reasons were large - scale net withdrawals during the quarter - end and the fact that yields reached the previous intensive lock - in area. There are no substantial positive or negative factors, and the market is mainly affected by institutional profit - taking. It is recommended to take profits and wait [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The production and apparent consumption of rebar increased slightly, and the destocking speed accelerated. The macro - policy is in line with expectations, but the economic data from January to February is weak. The static valuation is at a neutral level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,130 - 3,300 [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The iron ore production increased, but the demand expectation is pessimistic. The发改委 mentioned the regulation of crude steel production, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has been alleviated. The price of coking coal may stabilize, and the price center of coke may gradually stabilize. Attention should be paid to factors such as blast furnace复产, import volume, and policy expectations [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US tariff policy and smelter maintenance affect the market. The downstream receiving willingness is weak, but the domestic inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and add on dips [11]. - **Aluminum**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The inventory has decreased. Affected by tariffs and policies, the aluminum price may have a callback. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,300 - 21,000 [13]. - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - policies and nickel ore regulations, the supply of refined nickel is high, and the downstream stainless steel is weak. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: The downstream trading is weak, and the supply of tin ore is tight. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The supply is expected to increase marginally. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not to chase the high. The reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract is 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, economic data, and tariff policies, the market's expectation of an early interest - rate cut has increased. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase the high [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market, and the supply pressure is large. There is a spring - maintenance expectation from April to May, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to factors such as new production, maintenance, and downstream recovery [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The recent market is weak. The inventory is high, and the price of liquid chlorine suppresses the caustic - soda price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as delivery volume, non - aluminum demand, and inventory destocking [22]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is stable. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. The price has increased, but it is not recommended to chase the high. The reference range for the 05 contract is 1,720 - 1,900 [23]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a medium - high level, and the demand is supported. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2,500 - 2,650. Attention should be paid to factors such as the macro - environment, production - device maintenance, and olefin start - up [23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased, and the spot market is weak. Although the demand has improved, the supply increase is fast, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [24]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA's global cotton supply - demand forecast, the supply and demand have both increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market consumption is not strong, and it is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Apples**: The main apple - producing areas have stable transactions, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the apple price will fluctuate strongly [25]. - **PTA**: Affected by the international oil price and supply - demand factors, the PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,700 - 5,000 [27]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is postponed, and the near - term contracts are relatively strong. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [28][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply and demand have both increased, and the price is in a low - level shock. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 05 contract and short on rallies for the 08 and 09 contracts [30]. - **Corn**: The short - term spot price has support, and the medium - long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 05 contract and pay attention to the 5 - 7 positive spread opportunity [31]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory and supply. In the long - term, the import cost is expected to increase, and the price has support. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term, hold short positions in call options for the 07 contract, and go long lightly on dips for the m2509 contract [33]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, the domestic oil market shows a differentiated trend. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strong. In the medium - term, the oil price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see for the 05 contracts of palm oil and soybean oil, pay attention to the 9,300 pressure level for rapeseed oil, and consider the strategy of expanding the spread for the 09 contracts of rapeseed oil and other oils [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the long - term due to strong demand and tight supply, but may experience short - term corrections. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [1]. - Aluminum prices may have room for correction, and it is advisable to gradually go long as the price drops, while paying attention to market sentiment [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short at high prices [5]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not to chase high prices, while continuously monitoring the recovery of downstream demand [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE copper contract 05 dropped 1.03% to 81,560 yuan/ton. The US tariff measure on imported cars and parts is expected to suppress metal demand, causing the copper price to fall at night. The spread between Comex and LME has narrowed to around $1,400/ton. High copper prices have curbed downstream consumption, and the overall demand growth is limited. Although the long - term demand logic remains, short - term factors may lead to price corrections [1]. Aluminum - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract 05 rose 0.56% to 20,815 yuan/ton. The overall supply of ore is gradually improving, and the price is declining. Some alumina enterprises have cut production due to cost losses. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the demand side shows an increase in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. However, due to tariff policies, the aluminum price may still have room for correction [2][3]. Nickel - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract 05 dropped 0.05% to 130,030 yuan/ton. Macro factors increase the risk of stagflation in the US. Policy changes in the nickel ore market have an impact on prices, but the support may weaken. The supply of refined nickel remains high, and the downstream stainless steel market is weak, suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. Tin - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE tin contract 05 rose 0.82% to 281,390 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production decreased slightly in February, and the import of tin concentrates decreased year - on - year. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. However, the supply is expected to increase marginally, leading to greater price fluctuations [6]. Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Spot copper market trading is inactive, with holders maintaining high prices, and terminal demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [7]. - Aluminum: The spot aluminum market has a lukewarm trading atmosphere, with holders selling actively at high prices, and downstream procurement being weak [8]. - Alumina: The demand for spot alumina at low prices has decreased, and downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are cautious, resulting in low - level trading [9]. - Zinc: The spot zinc market has light trading, with holders insisting on high prices and downstream procurement being cautious [10][11]. - Lead: The spot lead market has relatively stable transactions, with downstream businesses purchasing according to needs [12][13]. - Nickel: The overall activity in the spot nickel market is low, with most participants remaining on the sidelines [14][15]. - Tin: The downstream of the spot tin market maintains rigid - need procurement [16]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead and tin futures warehouse receipts increased [18]. - LME: Copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, while tin and nickel inventories increased [18].

棉纺策略日报 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 棉纺团队 研究员： 洪润霞 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 ...

◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹 3260，环比前一日下跌 10 元/吨，基差 52（-9），钢联统计口径，螺纹钢产量、表观消费均小 幅回升，去库速度略有加快，另外五大材去库顺畅，短期铁水产量仍有 回升空间，盘面原料价格走强。宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合 预期，不过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改 善，国外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税，据媒体报道，特朗普计划推出 的对等关税措施可能比外界预期的要温和。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹 钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本，高于电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，静态 估值处于中性水平；驱动方面，国内政策已经明朗、旺季需求强度仍处 于验证期、关税影响有待继续观察，预计价格震荡运行为主，短期 RB2505 关注【3130-3300】。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 黑色产业日报 简要观点 周四，铁矿期货价格震荡偏强，铁水产量持续上升，带动盘面上涨。现货 方面，青岛港 PB 粉 788 元/湿吨（+8）。普氏 62%指数 104.55 美元/ 吨（+1.25），月均 102.36 美元/吨。PBF 基差 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-03-28 公司资质 日度观点 ◆生猪： 3 月 28 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.4 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-14.9 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.3-14.7 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.2-15.8 元 /公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。月底月初企业控量操作，但 肥标价差收窄，价格涨高后二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终 端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压，不过猪价跌至 14 元/公斤 附近，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入 库，均支撑价格，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注二育和屠宰冻品 入库介入情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 二季度供应同比增加，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱 格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧，向成本回归，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻 品入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，接近均衡 区间上限，供应压力仍 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹 3270，环比前一日下跌 10 元/吨，基差 61（+1），昨日钢谷、找钢-兰格统计口径，螺纹钢表 观消费均出现了环比下滑，市场开始担忧需求见顶，继续关注周四钢联 供需数据。宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合预期，不过 1-2 月经 济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善，国外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税，据媒体报道，特朗普计划推出的对等关税措施可能 比外界预期的要温和。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉 平电成本，高于电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，静态估值处于中性水平； 驱动方面，国内政策已经明朗、旺季需求强度仍处于验证期、关税影响 有待继续观察，预计价格震荡运行为主，短期 RB2505 关注【3130- 3300】。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 张佩云 咨询电话：027-65777100 从业编号：F03090752 投资咨询编号：Z0019837 联系人 周三，铁矿期货价格震荡运行，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for profit - taking and waiting [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate, with iron ore showing a slightly weaker trend [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for buying on dips, aluminum for buying on dips in a stepped manner, nickel for waiting and watching or short - selling on rallies, tin for taking partial profits on previous long positions, and silver and gold for building positions on dips [1][12][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is for range - bound operation; soda ash recommends holding short positions in call options; and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][20][22][25][27]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate, apples to strengthen with fluctuations, and PTA to fluctuate weakly [1][26][27]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs have strong support in the near - term and are recommended for short - selling on rallies in the far - term, corn is recommended for buying on dips, soymeal is recommended for cautious long - positions in the short - term and long - positions in the far - term, and oils are for range - bound operation [1][28][32][34][35]. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as A - share earnings announcements, Trump's tariff policies, and Fed's interest - rate decisions. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external policy impacts [5][12][18]. - In the short term, most products are in a state of fluctuation, and investors need to pay attention to market sentiment, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. In the long term, factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, and trade policies will continue to affect product prices [7][24][39]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With A - shares entering the earnings announcement period and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy on April 2, market risk appetite may fluctuate. IC and IM may offer better entry opportunities after a moderate correction [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: There is a lack of short - term negative news in the bond market, and bulls are dominant. However, pay attention to the profit - taking pressure caused by overly consistent market expectations [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the peak of demand, and the impact of policies and tariffs needs further observation. The short - term range for RB2505 is [3130 - 3300] [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by steel production restrictions and macro - economic factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually alleviated, and the price may stabilize. The coke market's supply - demand contradiction has also eased, but the rebound space depends on terminal demand and steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price may fluctuate at a high level. Although there is a risk of a high - level correction, it is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand situation is complex. With the impact of policies and tariffs, the price may have room for correction. It is recommended to buy on dips in a stepped manner [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand changes, it is recommended to wait and watch or short - sell on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is expected to increase marginally, and the demand may be supported by the recovery of the semiconductor industry. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions [16]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and Trump's tariff policy, it is recommended to build positions on dips [18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. Although there are expectations of spring maintenance and seasonal recovery in demand, the rebound space is limited [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The current inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Urea**: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. The price may be under pressure in the medium term [23][24]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a medium - high level, and the demand has some support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the demand has improved, the supply has increased rapidly, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [25]. - **PTA**: It follows the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The short - term is affected by factors such as the restart of maintenance devices and the slowdown of inventory accumulation [27]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market consumption is not strong, but the acceptance of low prices is high, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Apples**: The出库 is good, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to strengthen with fluctuations [26]. - **PTA**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and is in the range of 4700 - 5000 [27]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is postponed, and the long - term supply is abundant. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply and demand increase simultaneously, and the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hedge on rallies in the near - term and short - sell in the far - term [31][32]. - **Corn**: The short - term lacks new positive drivers, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to buy on dips [32]. - **Soymeal**: The short - term is affected by South American bumper harvests and shows a weak trend, while the long - term price has support. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and long - position lightly in the long - term [34]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, the trends are further differentiated, and in the medium - term, there is a high possibility of a downward trend. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to the pressure level for rapeseed oil, and conduct arbitrage operations [35][39][40].