Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black industries including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][3][4] Rebar Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 139 (-16) [1] - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The demand seasonally weakens over time. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Rebar production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there may be a slight inventory build - up later [1] - **Price Forecast**: The current rebar futures price has fallen close to the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. There is a low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term, and the supply - demand has turned loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1] Iron Ore Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton (-6), the Platts 62% index was 95.20 dollars/ton (-0.90), and the PBF basis was 61 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - **Supply - Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The continuous price reduction of coal in the raw material end has maintained steel production, so iron ore is relatively strong. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] - **Price Forecast**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news, with little impact from fundamentals. Technically, the long - short forces are not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Coking Coal Analysis - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have reduced production due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable. The online auction of Mongolian coking coal has failed continuously, and the downstream procurement is still cautious [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price cuts of coke, the market pessimism has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills have weak procurement enthusiasm, and the demand for coking coal is insufficient [3] - **Price Forecast**: The supply - demand of the coking coal market remains loose. The short - term price center may continue to move down, and it is necessary to focus on the improvement of coke demand, import coal price fluctuations, and coal mine inventory depletion [3] Coke Analysis - **Supply**: Although coke enterprises are under shipment pressure and inventory is accumulating, most still have some profit margins, and the supply reduction is limited. After the third price cut, some enterprises may adjust production, and supply is expected to shrink [4] - **Demand**: The steel market is in the off - season, terminal demand is difficult to improve, iron ore production growth is weak, and the demand for coke is limited [4] - **Price Forecast**: The coke market fundamentals are loose, and the short - term price may continue to be weak. It is necessary to focus on steel terminal demand, coke enterprise profit changes, and coking coal price transmission [4] Industry News - On June 9, local time, Chinese and US officials held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London [7] - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 10.2% [7] - Baowu Steel's ex - factory prices in July are expected to remain flat [7] - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [7] - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and treasury bonds are recommended for bottom - up allocation and are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; aluminum is recommended for short - selling with a light position; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][10] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to fluctuate weakly; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner; apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360]; soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips; oils are recommended for short - selling on rallies [1][39] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - factors. It points out that different futures markets show different trends due to factors such as economic data, policy changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations. For example, the stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", while the bond market is in a path of sentiment repair. In the commodity market, some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, and some are influenced by external factors such as tariffs and international trade relations [1][5] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: The A - share market showed a differentiated performance on Monday. The CSI 1000 index futures were the most active, while the trading volume of the SSE 50 was low. The market presents a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", and the overall trend is expected to be fluctuating with an upward bias [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market sentiment continued to recover on Monday. Although the intraday market fluctuated, the bulls were dominant. Positive factors are resonating, but the trade talks may boost risk appetite, and the interest rate decline may have some reasonable pull - backs [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The fundamental supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the decline in demand and the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies [7] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated on Monday. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly affected by macro - news. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is recommended to observe [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price center may continue to move down. The coke market's fundamentals are also loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The impact of tariffs on copper prices has increased again, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range. Although the supply is high, the low inventory and supply disruptions still support the price, but the weakening downstream consumption restricts the upward space [10] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply in Guinea is disturbed, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as the decline in downstream demand and the increase in tariffs, the short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [12] - **Nickel**: The nickel market has a pattern of high cost and oversupply in the medium - long term. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, but the downstream consumption is affected by tariffs. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tariff policies, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC has a pattern of weak demand and high supply. Although the inventory has decreased recently, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has a situation of strong current situation and weak expectation. In June, there are many overhauls, but the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to focus on factors such as alumina production and inventory [22] - **Styrene**: The styrene market has a pattern of high valuation and loose supply - demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, focusing on factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of limited raw material price decline space and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on macro - news [25] - **Urea**: The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production and urea inventory [28] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a pattern of high supply and limited demand support. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as macro - changes and olefin plant operations [30] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market has a pattern of increasing supply pressure and entering the traditional off - season of demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as downstream demand and domestic policies [31] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak downstream demand. The 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but due to the warming of Sino - US relations, the cotton price is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner [35] - **Apples**: The apple market has a stable price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range due to low inventory [36] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [39] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a pattern of sufficient supply and seasonal weakening of demand. The short - term price support is weak, and different contracts have different trading strategies [40] - **Corn**: The corn market has a pattern of short - term supply - demand game and long - term tightening of supply - demand. It is recommended to operate within a high - level range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by US soybean weather and import costs. The short - term price is restricted by supply increase, while the long - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43] - **Oils**: The oil market has a pattern of mixed long - and short - term factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and rebound from the third quarter. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio [49]

股指或震荡偏强，国债观 望为主 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周五沪深300股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，上证50股指主力合约期货跌0.09%，中证 500股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，中证1000股指主力合约期货跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：美国5月非农好于预期，特朗普仍呼吁降息1个百分点，指责鲍威尔让美国"损失惨重" ，并 称将很快公布下一任美联储主席人选。国务院副总理何立峰于6月8-13日访问英国，其间，与美方举行 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。中国商务部就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问：实施出口管制符合国际通 行做法，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行，股指或震荡偏强运行。 p 技术分析：K ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. economic data shows resilience recently, with the May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, the April inflation data below expectations, and the Fed maintaining policy independence. Gold prices are in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The strong employment data and existing inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September but has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Considering the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the market lowering the expected rate - cut amplitude, the price of U.S. gold slightly corrected. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3331 per ounce, up 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3390, and the lower support level is $3280 [6]. - The price of U.S. silver rose to catch up. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 9.2%, closing at $36.13 per ounce. The lower support level is $34.5, and the upper resistance level is $37 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained policy independence, the April inflation data was below expectations, and recent U.S. economic data showed resilience, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gold prices. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance, and Powell said that tariffs might have a lasting impact on inflation and that the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear before considering rate cuts. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected in April. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Due to the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data to be released on Wednesday [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators There is no specific text - based summary information provided in the content, only some data charts are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week | Economic Indicator | Announced Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. May non - farm payrolls change, seasonally adjusted (in millions) | 13.9 | 13 | 14.7 | | U.S. May unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | U.S. May ADP employment change (in millions) | 3.7 | 11 | 6.2 | | U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate revision (%) | - 6.3 | - | - 6.3 | [20] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls increased by 1.39 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. However, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, indicating an upward risk of inflation. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. After the release of the non - farm data, the market lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude, expecting the annual rate - cut to be less than 50 basis points [21]. - The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally reached the central bank's 2% target. Since last June, the ECB has cut rates eight times. Currently, the inflation rate in the eurozone is slightly below 2%, and ECB President Lagarde said the bank is in a "good position," leading investors to believe that even if the easing policy is not ended, rate cuts will pause [21]. - Representatives of the U.S. and the EU said that the bilateral trade negotiations are progressing rapidly. The new U.S. metal tariffs have disrupted the global economy again, increasing the urgency of the negotiations. U.S. President Trump's measure to double the import tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. On the same day, the U.S. asked its trading partners to submit "best offers" to avoid other punitive tariffs from taking effect in July [21]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 20,897.20 kg to 1,185,582.5 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 600 kg to 17,847 kg. - For silver, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 40,062.53 kg to 15,387,521.69 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 51,055 kg to 1,117,940 kg [12][26]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of June 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 191,433 contracts, an increase of 14,371 contracts from last week. - As of June 3, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 59,230 contracts, an increase of 8,616 contracts from last week [12][31]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (June 11) at 20:30, the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data will be released. - On Thursday (June 12) at 20:30, the U.S. May PPI year - on - year data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be announced. - On Friday (June 13) at 22:00, the preliminary value of the U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [33].

铜周报：基本面支撑，铜价仍存韧性 2025-6-9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 供给端：当前铜矿加工费处于历史低位，铜矿供应持续偏紧。截至6月6日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-43美元/吨，4月底以来进口铜精 矿粗炼费（TC）持续位于持稳于-43美元/吨左右。5月电解铜产量113.83万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加12.86%，国内精炼铜产量 稳定增加。 需求端：旺季过后下游需求转淡，截至6月5日，SMM电解铜制杆周度开工率环比下滑至74.87%，环比下滑1.03个百分点，铜价运 行依然坚挺，压制下游备货欲望。淡季来临市场预期悲观，下游铜管、铜板带开工率下滑，铜箔企业开工率小幅增长。 库存：截至6月6日，上海期货交易所铜库存10.74万吨，周环比1.52%。截止6月5日，国内铜社会库存14.88万吨，较节前5月29日 累库1.01万吨，环比 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure in the short - term and facing supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The egg market has a seasonal weakening in demand, and the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. The corn market has intensified supply - demand competition, with short - term price support and long - term upward drive but limited upside space [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the national spot price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.09 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan/kg; the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13460 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton; the 09 - contract basis was 630 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and the performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity has been reduced, the overall reduction is limited. In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high. The proportion of small pig slaughter decreased, and the proportion of large pig slaughter increased slightly. The average slaughter weight continued to decline [4]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume both declined. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand fell, and downstream demand was poor. The cold - storage market demand was dull, but the cold - storage inventory was low, and the enthusiasm for cold - storage warehousing might increase as the pig price continued to fall [4]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly piglet price dropped slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, the feed cost was low, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high, and the overall consumption is difficult to perform well. The pig price still has a risk of decline, but the entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening and low cold - storage inventory limits the decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure [4]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - The futures price is at a discount. In the short - term, it fluctuates at a low level. Wait for the price to rebound to the resistance level and then go short [4]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.83 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price of the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin; the main egg contract 2507 closed at 2859 yuan/500 kg, down 79 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 279 yuan/500 kg, up 79 yuan/500 kg. The egg price is expected to run weakly and stably in the future [5]. 3.2.2 Supply End - In June, the number of newly - opened laying hens was relatively high. The current market supply is still relatively sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, but the number of newly - opened laying hens may decrease in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.3 Demand End - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand for replenishment and cold - storage warehousing increased, which supported the egg price, but the demand for eggs decreased seasonally, and the substitution consumption had support [5]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the egg price has certain support, but the demand weakens seasonally, and the supply is still sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the supply pressure may be relieved in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - Temporarily wait and see for the 07 contract, be cautious about bottom - fishing; treat the 08 and 09 contracts bearishly, wait for the price to rebound and then go short; pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for the 10 contract [5]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the main corn contract 2507 closed at 2340 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; the main basis was - 30 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The corn price is expected to run narrowly in the future [6]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The listing of new wheat puts pressure on the corn price, and traders' willingness to sell corn increases, but the supply from the grass - roots level is basically over, and the inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of reduction, which supports the spot price [6]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the narrowing of the corn - wheat price difference makes downstream buyers prefer wheat, and the deep - processing industry is in a loss state, with limited demand growth [7]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the supply - demand competition in the corn market intensifies, and the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship tightens, and the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Treat the overall trend as stable and slightly strong. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level, and go long at the lower limit of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9].

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-09 01 尿素：延续弱势 关注库存拐点 02 甲醇：利好驱动不足 或转弱运行 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：延续弱势 关注库存拐点 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：在尿素日产连续提升，农忙阶段性用肥空档期以及复合肥开工率下调的供需背景下，尿素价格大 幅回落。6月6日尿素2509合约收盘价1720元/吨，较上周下调53元/吨，降幅2.99%。尿素现货价格先涨后跌，河 南市场日均价1818元/吨，较上周下调10元/吨。基差：尿素期货价格弱势运行，主力基差表现走强，6月6日河南 市场主力基差98元/吨，较上周走强43元/吨。价差：尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，6月6日9-1价差51元/吨， 较上周缩小19元/吨，价差运行区间为30-100元/吨。 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market continues to oscillate overall under the influence of complex macro factors. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity changes, and inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Market Analysis Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Tariffs increase the impact on copper prices, and Sino - US presidential calls bring positive expectations. Although supply disturbances and low TC support copper prices, downstream consumption is weakening, and the upside and downside of copper prices are both limited [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading within 77500 - 79500 [3]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued weak oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Mining disturbances in Guinea have not directly affected the current abundant supply of bauxite, but the impact will be reflected in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, while downstream demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [3]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Range oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Macro factors are negative, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to remain abundant. Traditional peak consumption seasons have passed, and downstream demand is weakening. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading [3]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Weak oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the overall market consumption is poor. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading within 16200 - 17000 [3]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: Stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **Market View**: Macro factors are negative, but the cost of nickel is firm, and the downside is limited. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 118000 - 125000 yuan/ton [3]. Stainless Steel - **Trend Status**: Oscillated weakly [3]. - **Market View**: Entering the traditional off - season, downstream demand is only for rigid needs. The cost of stainless - steel enterprises is inverted, and social inventory is high. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - **Market View**: Raw material supply is tight, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. Although the supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, the impact of US tariff policies on downstream consumption needs attention. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the SHFE tin 07 contract is 255000 - 275000 yuan/ton [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - **Market View**: Production has increased, and inventory is high. Although the price has rebounded due to rising coal prices, it is expected to be weak under the pressure of production resumption in the southwest region [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Trend Status**: Weak oscillation at a low level [4]. - **Market View**: The polysilicon market has high risks [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Trend Status**: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - **Market View**: Supply has recovered, but downstream battery inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is not improving. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short when the price rebounds to a high level [4]. 2. Macro - economic Data - **China**: In May, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand; the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, and the service industry and comprehensive PMI showed slight changes [15][17]. - **US**: On June 4, the steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 50%; the May ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for three consecutive months; the May non - farm payrolls increased by 139000, the lowest since February [19][20][22]. - **Eurozone**: The May manufacturing PMI's contraction slowed down, and output increased for the third consecutive month [21]. 3. Market Data Tracking - **Copper**: Various inventory data, such as COMEX, LME, and Chinese bonded - area inventories, showed different trends in week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year comparisons [9]. - **Aluminum**: Data on 6063 aluminum rod inventory, port alumina and bauxite inventory, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory were tracked [55]. - **Zinc**: Data on global visible inventory, SHFE inventory, and zinc downstream product prices were tracked [70][73]. - **Lead**: Data on SHFE and LME lead inventory, and lead production and price data were tracked [84][91]. - **Nickel**: Data on LME and SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel - related product prices were tracked [100][112]. - **Tin**: Data on LME tin inventory, tin - related product prices, and smelting profit were tracked [129][131][125]. - **Industrial Silicon and Stainless Steel**: Their respective price trends and inventory data were tracked [136][137]

碳酸锂周报 供应有所修复，价格延续震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/6/9 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，5月产量环比增加1.9%至73020吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比增加615吨至16013吨，4月碳酸锂产量环比减少 9%至71652吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年4月中国锂矿石进口数量为62.3万吨，环比增加16.5%。其中从澳大利亚 进口29.8万吨，环比减少3%，自津巴布韦进口10.6万吨，环比增加82%，自尼日利亚进口8.9万吨，环比增加4%。4月碳酸锂进口量 为2.8万吨，环比增加56%，自智利进口碳酸锂2万吨，占比71%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 ...