长江期货白糖周报 关税加征扰动市场，糖价高位震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-7 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 白糖周度观点 1 整体观点：国际糖市，国际糖市，ICE期价涨跌互现，目前北半球主产区产量已成定局，受巴西库 存偏低，3月底印度2024/25榨季累计产糖同比减少影响，叠加巴西中南部新榨季生产或推迟，短 期贸易流偏紧，对国际糖价的支撑仍存，后市市场关注重心逐渐转向南半球，巴西主产区降雨缓 解了部分市场供给担忧，后期重点关注巴西天气状况及开榨进度情况。近期美国关税加征引发的 担忧影响，市场波动加剧，情绪较为谨慎。国内方面，国内食糖和糖浆、白砂糖预混粉进口同比 回落数据影响，对糖价形成一定支撑，叠加国产糖即将进入纯销期，产区3月产销数据陆续公布， 销糖进度或同比加快，工业库存同比有所下降，产区现货报价相对坚挺，预计短期国内糖价将 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 清明期间，受关税风波影响，外盘大跌，铁矿掉期跌幅近 4%，周一钢价 大概率跳空低开。就钢材而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国 对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较 大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中 对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期 钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲击。近日全美爆发大规模反特朗普 示威，美国对等关税政策是否会按期落地仍需观察，另外国内除了关税 反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策也需要进一步观察。短期来看， 一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一方面钢材实际需求承压，预计节后钢价 偏弱运行，需要警惕大幅下跌风险。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 上周连铁宽幅震荡，美国对全球加征关税，全球贸易摩擦加剧。供给方 面，澳洲巴西发运持续回升。由于前期强势发运，近日国内铁矿到港量 有明显上升，随着疏港下降，本周铁矿港口库存略有上升，累库预期提 升。国产矿方面，开工率回升，铁精粉产量小幅增长，矿企库存有所增 加。需求方面，钢厂复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price has a high risk of decline due to strong supply and weak demand. For eggs, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, but the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is increasing. For oils, the domestic oils are expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a possible overall downward trend in the second quarter and a rebound in the third quarter. For soybean meal, the price before July is less directly affected, but the price is expected to be strong after September. For corn, the short - term price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the medium - to - long - term price has upward momentum but limited upside space [1][2][8][10]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Price**: During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price fluctuated narrowly. On April 7, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg respectively [1]. - **Influence of Tariffs**: China's 34% counter - tariff on all US imports since April 10, 2025, has limited direct impact on the domestic pig market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for slaughter. The low - price entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening is good, and the low slaughter inventory also supports the price. However, the price is under pressure above. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is increasing, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The supply pressure in the long - term is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures are at a discount, and the short - term supply pressure is postponed. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on 07 and 09 contracts [1]. Eggs - **Price**: On April 7, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.95 yuan/jin, and in Beijing was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, but the increase in old - hen culling and festival - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of old - hen culling or molting on the phased supply [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 05 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, they should be treated as bearish in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and culling [2]. Oils - **Price Changes**: On April 4, the US soybean oil main 5 - month contract fell 2.85% to 45.72 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main 6 - month contract fell 3.59% to 4329 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 100 - 120 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price fell 110 - 160 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact. The Malaysian palm oil production increase in March is greater than the export increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is likely to decline [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending volume, the overall fundamentals are bearish. The domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The price may first fall and then rise in the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian relations affect the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will decrease after May. The price is expected to rebound in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - **Strategy**: For the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, be cautious about chasing up. For the spread of 09 rapeseed - soybean oil, stop profit and exit [8]. Soybean Meal - **Price Changes**: On April 4, the US soybean 05 contract fell 34.75 cents/bu to 977.25 cents/bu. The spot price rose due to tariff sentiment [8]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: In the short - term, the impact on soybean meal before July is limited, but the price bottom will rise. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong after September [8]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing long on the 05 and 07 contracts on Monday. Hold the long positions on the 09 contract and go long on dips if not held. Do reverse spreads on the 7 - 9 spread and positive spreads on the 9 - 1 spread [8]. Corn - **Price**: On April 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2170 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2220 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2324 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the spot price has some pressure, but there is also support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Treat the general direction as moderately strong. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract and pay attention to the 2250 support level [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [11].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-04-07 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝周报 01 周度观点 整体矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降25万吨至9105万吨，氧化铝库存周度环比增加2万吨至339 万吨。氧化铝厂检修减产继续增加，当前减产产能已达200万吨，预计4月中旬减产规模可能达到500万吨左右。山东某150万吨氢 氧化铝项目逐步贡献氧化铝产量；广西地区某氧化铝厂二期第一条100万吨产线逐步贡献氧化铝产量，第二条100万吨产线近期或 将陆续产出成品；北方某大型氧化铝二期第一条160万吨产线近期已陆续有投料进展。电解铝运行产能4404.4万吨，周度环比持平。 中铝青海产能扩建升级项目逐步启槽，贡献产能净增量10万吨，贵州安顺仍在复产。去年底因成本或检修原因减产的四川铝企积极 复产中，广元弘昌晟预计4-5月满产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.85%至62.58%。库存方面，周内 铝锭、铝棒社库去化。美 ...

加菜系产品进口困难后可能的 替代来源分析 核心观点 线路二：加菜籽经由欧盟/阿联酋压榨后以菜系产品输入中国：2024 年 中国进口了 50 万吨阿联酋菜油、32 万吨阿联酋菜粕和 2 万吨欧菜油，理论 上存在增大从两国进口菜系产品的可能。不过这两国都面临各自的问题：阿 联酋菜籽进口量已经接近其 110 万吨的压榨产能上限，新建压榨厂又要时 间，所以其承接加菜籽的能力短期无法大幅增长。欧盟虽然菜籽产量和压榨 量极大，但需要首先满足本国需求后的剩余部分才能出口中国。 线路三：加大对俄罗斯菜系产品的进口：俄罗斯菜籽产量在近五年中快 速拉升至 500 万吨，2024/25 年度共出口 135 万吨菜油和 80 万吨菜粕。 2024 年中国共进口 109 万吨俄菜油，已成为国内菜油最大进口源。由于中 俄关系密切以及俄罗斯菜籽继续扩种，预计未来俄菜油依然会大量进入中 国。不过当前对中国出口需求已经占了俄罗斯菜油的绝大部分，而菜籽扩种 需要时间，所以短期继续增大出口的空间有限。 综上所述，在当前国内对加菜油/菜粕加征关税，对加菜籽反倾销调查也 在进行中的情况下，2025 年对加拿大菜系产品的进口预计将明显减少。而 以上替代 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Trump's announcement of national emergency, full - scale tariff collection, and setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" with higher tariffs on countries with large trade deficits against the US. Tariff disturbances and the earnings season may lead the market to focus more on fundamental realities, causing the stock index to face downward pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market strengthened on Wednesday due to improved liquidity and increased post - quarter - end allocation demand. Falling funding rates drove up short - and medium - term bonds, and signs of increased fund subscriptions and narrowing spreads of less - active bonds indicated the entry of allocation buyers. On Thursday, attention should be paid to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs. If the impact is more than expected, combined with banks' allocation demand, the market may accelerate; if the impact is mild, yields may decline in the short term, but the bond market environment remains favorable in the first half of April [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.07%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index fell 0.17%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index rose 0.24%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index rose 0.49% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakening trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The stock index may be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.26%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.86%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a strengthening trend [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3857.60 | - 0.07 | 37515 | 151868 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2656.20 | - 0.17 | 20568 | 51807 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5868.60 | 0.24 | 35926 | 68392 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6100.00 | 0.49 | 106534 | 161702 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.05 | 0.26 | 62618 | 181072 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.75 | 0.15 | 44032 | 158987 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 117.18 | 0.86 | 103374 | 107670 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.39 | 0.04 | 33901 | 98280 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and treasury bonds are recommended to take profits and wait and see [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and coking coal are expected to fluctuate, while iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high prices and replenish long positions after a callback; aluminum is expected to fluctuate within the range of 20300 - 21000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices; tin is expected to be strong; gold and silver are recommended to build positions at low prices and be cautious about chasing high prices [1][11] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is recommended for range - bound operations; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate weakly, apples are expected to strengthen, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][27] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are strongly supported in the near - term and recommended to be shorted at high prices in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short - term and go long lightly in the far - term; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [1][32] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as Trump's tariff policy, overseas shocks, and domestic policies affecting the markets of various industries [5][7][11] - Different industries have different supply - demand relationships and cost - profit situations, which lead to different investment strategies [7][11][21] - The markets of various industries are affected by both macro - factors and industry - specific factors, and investors need to pay attention to multiple factors [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to tariff disturbances and the market's focus on fundamentals during the earnings season, index futures may be under pressure [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market improved on Wednesday due to factors such as reduced issuance pressure, improved liquidity, and institutional behavior. The market may accelerate if there are significant overseas shocks, or the yield may correct in the short - term if the overseas impact is lower than expected [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price was narrowly fluctuating on Wednesday. Affected by the US tariff increase, it is expected to be under pressure. In the short - term, iron ore production may increase, and the demand peak in the first half of the year is still to be verified, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: The price was narrowly fluctuating on Wednesday. Trump's tariff policy may have a negative impact on iron ore swaps. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to fluctuate [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as supply restrictions in some areas, import changes, and increased demand from steel mills. The coke market has improved supply - demand, but there are concerns about downstream restocking. Both are expected to fluctuate [8][9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the US tariff policy and supply - demand changes, the price has fluctuated. Next week, the price correction may drive downstream restocking, and the price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range fluctuation [11] - **Aluminum**: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the production capacity of alumina has decreased. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the demand is rising. Affected by policies at home and abroad, the price may have a callback space, and it is recommended to go long in steps during the callback [13] - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - factors, nickel ore policies, and supply - demand in different sectors, the price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the US economic data, tariff policy, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices and be cautious about chasing high prices [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the supply is under pressure. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and attention should be paid to factors such as new production, spring maintenance, and downstream resumption [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, the demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory reduction and alumina production [24] - **Urea**: The supply has slightly decreased, the demand from compound fertilizer is stable, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short - term and then adjust upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as production reduction and compound fertilizer production [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the downstream demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream purchasing sentiment [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply and demand are expected to change slightly, and the market consumption is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate [27] - **Apples**: The market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen [28] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil and supply - demand, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [29] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the price is supported by factors such as festival demand, but in the long - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices [32][33] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and in the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contract and short at high prices for the far - term contract [34] - **Corn**: In the short - term, the spot price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and in the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [35] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, it is affected by South American harvest and high inventory, and the price is weak; in the long - term, the import cost may increase, and the price has support. It is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short - term and go long lightly in the far - term [36][37] - **Oils**: In the short - term, the prices of the three major oils are expected to be strong, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the prices may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to spread - trading strategies [40][44][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of live pigs will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg, with a high risk of decline in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand. For eggs, the short - term supply - demand pattern has marginally improved, but the supply pressure will increase in the long term. The short - term trend of the three major domestic oils is strong, but the increase is limited, and the price may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is weak, while the long - term price has strong support. The short - term price of corn is easy to rise but hard to fall, and the price will rise in the medium - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 3, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan and Guangdong, it remained stable. The short - term price is supported by factors such as cost control by large - scale farms, low - level entry of secondary fattening, and potential increase in demand during holidays. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - long term, the supply will increase from March to September 2024, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The strategy is to go short on rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 [1]. Eggs - On April 3, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing was 3.16 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and festival - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase in the second quarter due to high - profit - driven replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025. The strategy is to wait and see for contract 05, and take a bearish view on contracts 08 and 09 [2]. Oils - On April 2, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 2.22% to 4518 ringgit/ton. The prices of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased. For palm oil, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved in March, but the production also increased, and the inventory may rise from April. The short - term price of the Malaysian 06 contract will fluctuate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price may fall from a high level in the medium - long term. For soybean oil, the potential increase in biodiesel blending in the US is positive, but the new tariffs and large - scale Brazilian soybean harvest are negative. The domestic supply pressure will be large in the medium term. For rapeseed oil, the trade interruption between China and Canada will intensify the supply - demand tension in the medium - long term, and the price is expected to rebound after the second quarter. The strategy is to be cautious about chasing up the 05 contracts of the three oils and pay attention to the spread - widening strategy of the rapeseed - soybean 09 contract [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 2, the US soybean 05 contract fell 4.75 cents to 1029.5 cents/bu, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2820 yuan/ton. The new tariffs imposed by Trump have a negative impact on US soybeans. In the short term, the market is trading around the South American bumper harvest, and the price of US soybeans is weak. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal is not as expected, and the price is weak. In the long term, the import cost will increase, and the price has strong support. The strategy is to be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts in the short term and to go long on the m2509 contract at low prices [8]. Corn - On April 2, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the short term, the spot price has pressure due to farmers' selling and high port inventory, but it is supported by the bullish sentiment of traders and downstream replenishment demand. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes. The strategy is to take a bullish view, and look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks [9]. Futures Market Overview - On April 2, the prices of various futures and spot products showed different trends. For example, the US soybean 05 contract fell, while the prices of some domestic oils and eggs rose. The details of price changes for each variety are shown in the table [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of black - related commodities including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke. It is expected that these commodities will generally show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Wednesday, rebar futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis was 84 (+24). Due to the large - scale US tariff increase, prices are expected to face pressure today [1]. - Last week, rebar production and apparent consumption both slightly increased, and the speed of inventory reduction accelerated slightly. The inventory reduction of five major steel products was smooth, and there is still room for short - term hot metal production to rise [1]. - Domestic Two Sessions policy intensity basically met expectations, but economic data from January to February were still weak, with the real estate market in a continuous decline and infrastructure growth slightly improving [1]. - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices have fallen near the electric furnace valley electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a moderately low level. In terms of driving factors, the peak demand in the first half of the year is still in the verification period, and the impact of tariffs and domestic countermeasures need further observation. Prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Trump's tariff policy last night exceeded market expectations, and the RMB exchange rate was weak, which is expected to have a greater negative impact on iron ore swaps [1]. - The latest total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,647.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,630.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.50 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 237.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 million tons [1]. - The factors restricting the shipment of Australia and Brazil have subsided, and port inventories are facing upward pressure. The supply side is relatively strong. The blast furnace restart after the Spring Festival is nearly over, and subsequent production recovery is limited. It is expected that the growth rate of hot metal will slow down [1]. - Affected by the unexpected US tariff policy, there is a macro - level negative impact on ore prices. The market should pay attention to the 800 pressure level on the disk [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, some coal mines in the main production areas are restricted in production due to accidents and environmental protection factors. Coupled with the release of downstream replenishment demand, the supply of high - sulfur coal in the region has tightened, the trading atmosphere in the auction market has improved, and the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases [3]. - In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has decreased month - on - month due to weak demand. Although the supply of Australian long - term resources is stable, the domestic spot price is weak, and the cost - performance advantage is insufficient, so traders are cautious in taking delivery [3]. - In terms of demand, the accelerated restart of steel mills has driven the increase in hot metal production, and the demand for coking enterprises to replenish raw materials has gradually been released, but its sustainability needs to be tracked [3]. - In general, the coking coal market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The core contradiction in the current market lies in the game between high supply and demand sustainability. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement signal of finished product demand and the change in imported coal cost [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, the production of coking enterprises in the main production areas has remained stable, the previous inventory pressure has gradually eased, some enterprises have accelerated the shipment by improving logistics efficiency, and the factory inventory has continued to decline [4]. - Although the profit level of coking enterprises is limited after the previous price adjustment, the production rhythm has not significantly shrunk under the support of rigid demand [4]. - In terms of demand, with the progress of blast furnace restart, the stable increase in hot metal production has driven the release of rigid demand for coke [4]. - At the cost end, the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases, and the marginal cost of coke entering the furnace has increased, forming a bottom support for prices. However, under the background of coking - steel game, the lack of sustainability of downstream replenishment is still a concern [4]. - In general, the supply - demand pattern of coke has marginally improved, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the elasticity of hot metal production, the realization of finished product consumption, and the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal cost [4]. Economic News - On April 2, local time, US President Trump announced "reciprocal tariff" measures on trading partners, imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan [6]. - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to accelerate the construction of key - area markets, promote the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimize rules for futures variety listing, trading, and supervision, and develop trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. in an orderly manner [6]. - As of April 1, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 57.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [6]. - The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway started a 30 - day spring maintenance project on April 1 [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 37 anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations or rulings initiated by foreign countries against Chinese steel products, including stainless - steel sinks and hot - rolled carbon steel pipes [6].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is an Energy and Chemical Daily report, with data sourced from Flush iFind, Baichuan Yingfu, Longzhong Information, and Zhuochuang Information [8] Group 2: PVC Analysis Current Situation - On April 2, the PVC main 05 contract closed at 5,072 yuan/ton (-27), with the Changzhou market price at 4,900 yuan/ton (0), the main basis at -172 yuan/ton (+27), the Guangzhou market price at 5,040 yuan/ton (-10), and the Hangzhou market price at 4,940 yuan/ton (-10). Lan charcoal medium material was 675 yuan/ton (0), Wuhai calcium carbide was 2,700 yuan/ton (0), and ethylene was 7,100 yuan/ton (0) [2] Core View - In the long term, PVC demand is continuously sluggish due to the drag of the real estate sector, exports are suppressed by anti - dumping and BIS certification, and the export volume accounts for a small proportion (about 12%). The supply side has many new investment plans, caustic soda profit is high, the start - up rate is continuously maintained at a high level, and inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure. With insufficient demand, over - capacity, and a loose supply - demand pattern, it is a short - side allocation. Currently, there are few maintenance operations. From mid - April, the number will increase month - on - month but be less year - on - year. Exports are in a stable state by trading at lower prices, and domestic demand is seasonally recovering. Valuation is neutral, fundamental driving force is limited, financial attributes are stronger than commodity attributes, and it fluctuates with the market. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention paid to the 5,200 pressure level [2] Key Points to Follow - New production progress, spring maintenance implementation, downstream resumption of work, export situation, domestic monetary, fiscal, and energy consumption policies, as well as Fed interest rate cuts and Trump's policy tariffs [2] Group 3: Caustic Soda Analysis Current Situation - On April 2, the caustic soda main SH05 contract closed at 2,511 yuan/ton (-4), the mainstream price in the Shandong market was 855 yuan/ton (0), equivalent to 2,672 yuan/ton (0) for 100% caustic soda, and liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50 yuan/ton (0). From April 1, a certain alumina manufacturer in Shandong reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 15 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 795 yuan/ton (equivalent to 2,484 yuan/ton for 100% caustic soda). As of March 27, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 489,000 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 6.37% and a year - on - year increase of 15.52% [3] Core View - Currently, inventory is high, the price of liquid chlorine is rising, there is an expectation of restored operation of maintenance devices, the start - up rate is maintained at a high level, the marginal profit of alumina production capacity is weakening, production cuts are increasing, non - aluminum demand has limited elasticity, and demand growth is limited, so there is insufficient upward driving force for the futures market. However, after the end of Ramadan in Indonesia, export orders are expected to improve, and there may be an expectation of a price drop for liquid chlorine in the later period. The futures market is also cautious about downward movement, showing a cautious and weak trend [3] Key Points to Follow - Weiquan's delivery volume and price, inventory reduction situation, and the production and start - up situation of alumina in the medium term [3] Group 4: Urea Analysis Current Situation - The urea main contract closed at 1,896 yuan/ton, the spot price in the Henan market was 1,959 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market was 1,954 yuan/ton. The operating load rate of urea plants in China decreased slightly, and the daily average output of urea dropped slightly to 194,000 tons. The anthracite market was generally quiet, and coal prices remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 54.56%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points from last week, and the compound fertilizer start - up rate was rising steadily. The compound fertilizer inventory was 598,600 tons, an increase of 39,700 tons from last week. Industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin were steadily progressing. Urea enterprise inventory was 805,000 tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from last week [4] Core View - Urea supply decreased slightly month - on - month, but the daily average output was still at a high level. The start - up of compound fertilizer was stable, and the inventory reduction rhythm of compound fertilizer products was temporarily stagnant. However, from mid - to late April to May, the compound fertilizer start - up rate will still be at a high level, which will support the demand for urea. It is expected that the urea price will decline slightly in the short term and may adjust upward later [4] Key Points to Follow - Urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, warehouse receipt situation, compound fertilizer start - up situation, export policy, and coal price fluctuations [4][6] Group 5: Methanol Analysis Current Situation - The methanol main contract fell 0.76% and closed at 2,486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market was 2,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants decreased slightly. Recently, a 600,000 - ton plant in the north is planned for maintenance, and some methanol plants in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Guanzhong have gradually resumed normal operation, with overall supply being loose. Coal prices declined, weakening cost support. The methanol - to - olefins start - up rate was 87.54%, a decrease of 1.79 percentage points from last week. Methanol enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from last week, and the current inventory of inland methanol enterprises is maintained at a low level. Methanol port inventory was 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from last week [7] Core View - The start - up rate of inland methanol is at a high level, and supply is loose. The start - up of downstream methanol - to - olefins decreased slightly, the methanol market trading was average, and the quotes of some manufacturers declined. Under the background of low inventory in inland and ports, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream purchasing sentiment [7] Key Points to Follow - Macroeconomic environment changes, methanol production plant reduction and maintenance situation, methanol - to - olefins start - up, and international crude oil prices [7]