1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue to adjust in the short - term but are likely to be bullish in the long - term, with a short - term high - level wide - range shock. It is recommended to exit long positions on rallies and replenish after a pullback. The price reference range is 79,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may have room for correction, and it is recommended to go long in batches as the price pulls back. Attention should be paid to inventory data [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility. It is recommended to build positions on dips, with the reference operating range for the SHFE 05 contract being 280,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Metals 3.1.1 Copper - As of April 2, the SHFE copper main 05 contract closed down 0.01% at 79,890 yuan/ton. US tariff policies and supply - side events have affected prices. The domestic spot market has weak demand, and social inventories are slightly decreasing. The copper market in the US may face arbitrage pressure, and prices may continue to adjust. In the short - term, prices may stop falling and stabilize, and in the long - term, they are likely to rise [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - As of April 2, the SHFE aluminum main 05 contract closed down 0.24% at 20,435 yuan/ton. The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and prices are falling. Alumina production capacity has decreased, and inventories have increased. Multiple alumina enterprises have cut production. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, and inventories have decreased. Aluminum prices may have room for correction [2][3]. 3.1.3 Nickel - As of April 2, the SHFE nickel main 05 contract closed up 0.61% at 129,460 yuan/ton. The US economic situation has increased stagflation risks. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise, while refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel production is high. The price of nickel sulfate is strong, but demand is limited. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4][5]. 3.1.4 Tin - As of April 2, the SHFE tin main 05 contract closed up 3.89% at 297,590 yuan/ton. The recent price increase is due to the shortage of spot supply caused by the earthquake in Myanmar. Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventories are at a medium level. Prices are expected to be more volatile [6]. 3.2 Spot Transaction Summary 3.2.1 Copper - The domestic spot copper price slightly increased. The spot market had low pick - up volume, and downstream buyers were cautious. The overall stocking volume was mediocre [7]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - The spot aluminum price was stable in some regions and decreased in others. The spot market had average transactions. Sellers mainly sold goods before the festival, and the downstream had limited replenishment demand [8]. 3.2.3 Alumina - The alumina price decreased in various regions. The spot market had weak transactions, and downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers continued to suppress prices and purchase less [9]. 3.2.4 Zinc - The spot zinc price decreased. The terminal buying sentiment was low, and demand was limited [10][12]. 3.2.5 Lead - The spot lead price decreased. The downstream maintained a rigid demand for transactions, and the market atmosphere was relatively stable [12][13]. 3.2.6 Nickel - The spot nickel price was flat. The market maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the overall activity was not high [14][15]. 3.2.7 Tin - The spot tin price increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious and maintained a wait - and - see attitude [16][17]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased, while tin futures warehouse receipts increased. LME copper, tin, lead, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, and nickel inventory remained unchanged [19].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆国债： 止盈观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 震荡运行 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： 多单逢高离场，回调企稳补多 | | | ◆铝： 震荡运行，主力合约参考运行区间 | 20300-21000 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆黄金： 逢低建仓，追高谨慎 | | | ◆白银： 逢低建仓，追高谨慎 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡。 | | | ◆纯碱： 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱： 震荡 | | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡运行 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡走强 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | | ◆玉米： 逢低做多 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Stock Index**: The White House announced that tariffs would take effect after April 2, Carney warned of Canadian counter - measures, Mexico sought to retain exemptions in the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and the EU was ready to retaliate. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time this year, and the price index reached a new high since June 2022. The US labor market slowed moderately, with February JOLTS job openings falling short of expectations. With tariff disturbances approaching and the earnings season, the stock index may be under pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wednesday's treasury bond issuance will bring some pressure to market expectations, but it's unlikely that the issuance rate will be significantly higher than the secondary - market rate. Overseas tariff issues are highly concerned, and the US is set to announce a reciprocal tariff list early on the 3rd. Due to many uncertainties, it's unwise to make radical unilateral investment operations before relevant news is confirmed. The market is expected to oscillate within a relatively narrow range in the coming period [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index may oscillate weakly under pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 rose 0.08%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 fell 0.11%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 rose 0.66%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04% [9]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakly oscillating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating trend [10]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Main Continuation | 3859.60 | 0.08 | 40892 | 150013 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Main Continuation | 2661.80 | - 0.11 | 20983 | 50237 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Main Continuation | 5850.60 | 0.66 | 42101 | 68724 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Main Continuation | 6064.20 | 0.39 | 117820 | 159238 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 107.76 | - 0.08 | 56787 | 175280 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 105.57 | - 0.04 | 39077 | 155058 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 116.21 | 0.15 | 100609 | 102436 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 102.35 | - 0.04 | 29815 | 96496 | [12]

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-03-31 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 豆粕：供应逐步转松，价格承压下行 02 油脂：供应改善预期下，期价上方承压 目 录 豆粕：供应逐步转松，价格承压下行 01 01 豆粕：供应逐步转松，价格承压下行 ◆ 期现端：截至2025年3月28日，美豆05合约报价1022.25分/蒲，周度下跌2.75美分；华东豆粕现货报价3050元/吨，月度下跌540元/吨；连盘豆粕 05合约收盘于2823元/吨，月度下跌109元/吨；基差报价05+230元/吨，月度下跌440元/吨。月度巴西大豆上市、多边贸易关系担忧压制美盘表现， 成本支撑以及美国生柴政策影响，美豆在1000美分/蒲附近触底反弹，整体美豆价格震荡偏弱运行；国内豆粕受库存去库不及预期以及后期供需边际 转松影响价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：3月USDA大豆供需报告显示，美豆单产维持至50.7美分/蒲，结转库存维持3.8亿蒲，符合市场预期。25/26年度3月美豆种植面积市场预估 在8300万吨，市 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 1 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约下跌 0.1%至 79820 元/吨。美关 税政策对市场的影响延续。特朗普对铜征税预期，导致全球大量精炼铜 运抵美国，非美供应减少，叠加智利 Altonorte 炼厂突发不可抗力事件， 刺激铜价大幅攀高。随后美宣布对进口汽车加征关税，市场担忧贸易壁 垒将加剧输入型通胀压力，而全球经济亦将受损，美元借势走强，铜价 承压回落。国内现货市场：下游畏高，采购需求疲弱，现货升水亦承压 走跌，但由于市场到货依旧不多，社库维持小幅去库趋势，部分持货商 仍存挺价惜售情绪。宏观因素继续搅动全球供需格局，美国大量铜到岸， 美铜市场或面临套利压力，全球铜价或延续调整势头。下周临近清明假 期，铜价回调或带动下游一定的补库需求，沪铜有止跌企稳的可能。传 统消费旺季即将来临，而铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面临较大的原 料保供和保本压力，排产仍有降低的可能性，铜价整体仍易涨难跌，短 期或高位宽幅震荡运行。技术上看，沪铜主力合约 3 波上行形态完整， 有短期见顶回调迹象，建议多单逢高离场，待回调企稳补仓。铜价参考 区间 79000-81500。 ◆ 铝： 截至 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格探底回升，杭州中天螺纹 3230，环比前一日上涨 20 元/吨，基差 60（+9），期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近遇支撑，跟 随原料价格反弹。产业方面，钢联统计口径，上周螺纹钢产量、表观消费 均小幅回升，去库速度略有加快，另外五大材去库顺畅，短期铁水产量 仍有回升空间；宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合预期，不过 1-2 月 经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善，国外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉 谷电成本附近，静态估值处于中性偏低水平；驱动方面，上半年需求峰 值仍处于验证期、关税影响及国内应对措施有待继续观察，预计价格震 荡运行为主。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，铁矿期货价格震荡偏强。主要受焦炭现货提涨、巴西关税小作文 和国内螺纹成交火爆等多方面因素影响。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 788 元/湿吨（+14）。普氏 62%指数 104.10 美元/吨（+0.25），月均 104.10 美元/吨。PBF 基差 42 元/吨（-4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term prices of various products in the feed and breeding industry have different trends, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, and consumption seasons. Strategies for different varieties are given based on these trends [1][2][4][7][8] - There are both upward and downward pressures on the prices of different products, and investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each product [1][2][4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Live Pigs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.8 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 14.2 - 14.7 yuan/kg; and in Guangdong, it was stable at 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supported by factors like industry profits, low - position entry of second - round fattening, and holiday demand, but also pressured by cautious second - round fattening at high prices, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. Prices will oscillate around 14 yuan/kg [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: From March to September 2024, supply will increase due to the continuous slow growth of fertile sows from May to November 2024 and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the risk of price decline intensifies. The long - term price is also under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: In the short term, supply pressure is postponed. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For contracts 05, 07, and 09, pay attention to their respective pressure levels and sell out - of - the - money call options [1] 2. Eggs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing, it was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and holiday - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: High - profit - driven high - level replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025 will lead to an increase in new - laying hens in the second quarter, and the supply increase in the second half of the year is difficult to reverse [2] - **Strategy**: For contract 05, wait and see; for contracts 08 and 09, take a bearish view, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2] 3. Oils Palm Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the national palm oil price rose by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 9610 - 9850 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in March, exports increased slightly, and the inventory may have reached an inflection point. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the inventory has decreased to 36.87 tons [4] - **Long - term Outlook**: After April, the production in the origin will increase, and the demand will weaken after the festival. The price may decline from the high level [4] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of palm oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound. The domestic soybean oil price changed by 10 - 90 yuan/ton to 8150 - 8320 yuan/ton [3][4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Influenced by factors such as the potential increase in biodiesel blending, lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, and large - scale Brazilian soybean listing, the price will oscillate in a range [5] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply pressure will be large from April to May, and the inventory reduction ability will be limited [5] - **Strategy**: Contract 05 of soybean oil runs in the 7700 - 8200 range in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy [7] Rapeseed Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the domestic rapeseed oil price rose 90 yuan/ton to 9360 - 9680 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, the price is relatively strong [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: After the second quarter, due to factors such as reduced Canadian rapeseed planting area and inventory reduction, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [6] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of rapeseed oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean 05 contract rose 19.5 cents to 1034.25 cents/bushel, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2804 yuan/ton [7] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by factors such as Brazilian soybean harvest pressure, domestic inventory reduction falling short of expectations, and increased supply in the future, the price trend is weak [7] - **Long - term Outlook**: Import cost increase and possible reduction in US soybean planting area will provide support for the price [7] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 and 07 are weak in the short term, short on rallies; for m2509, build long positions at low prices [7] 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the new - corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2160 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Short - term Outlook**: There is selling pressure in the short term, but there is also support from factors such as trade - end price support and downstream replenishment demand [8] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply - demand situation will tighten, but the price increase space is limited due to factors such as substitutes [8] - **Strategy**: Take a generally stable - to - bullish attitude. For contract 05, look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks; pay attention to 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 calendar spreads [9] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybean active contract rose 18.75 cents to 1032.75 cents/bushel; soybean meal main contract fell 47 yuan/ton to 2804 yuan/ton; and other varieties also had corresponding price changes [10]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - PVC is expected to experience low - level, weak oscillations due to factors such as weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory. The price is likely to face pressure around 5200 yuan/ton [2]. - For caustic soda, the upward drive of the futures market is insufficient, but the downward movement is also cautious. Attention should be paid to factors like inventory and alumina production [3]. - Urea prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction. Although supply remains abundant, the smooth inventory reduction process drives up the average price [4][6]. - Methanol prices are expected to move within a range of 2500 - 2650 yuan/ton, with both domestic and port inventories decreasing, but the high price has limited downstream acceptance [7]. Summary by Product PVC - **Prices**: On April 1, the PVC main 05 - contract closed at 5099 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market and export restrictions. Supply is under pressure with new investment plans and high - level caustic soda production. Currently, maintenance is limited, and export is stable through price cuts [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention on new production, spring maintenance, downstream resumption, and policies [2]. Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On April 1, the caustic soda main SH05 - contract closed at 2515 yuan/ton (+3), and there were price adjustments in the Shandong market [3]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [3]. - **Outlook**: The upward drive is limited, but the downward movement is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and alumina production [3]. Urea - **Prices**: The main contract rose 3.27% to close at 1929 yuan/ton, with different spot prices in different regions [4]. - **Supply**: The national urea operating rate was 84.83%, and the daily output decreased slightly to 19.4 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and industrial demand was stable. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 210,000 tons, and the port inventory was basically unchanged [4][6]. - **Outlook**: Supply remains abundant, but inventory reduction supports price increases. Attention should be paid to factors such as equipment maintenance, compound fertilizer production, and export policies [6]. Methanol - **Prices**: The main contract fell 0.76% to close at 2486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market decreased by 52 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 84.06%, and the weekly output was 1.8268 billion tons [7]. - **Demand**: The methanol - to - olefin operating rate decreased, and traditional demand did not improve significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: Both enterprise and port inventories decreased. The enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, and the port inventory was 773,800 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to move within a range, with attention on factors such as the macro - environment, equipment maintenance, and international crude oil prices [7].