Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: As of July 14, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 36.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.1% [5]. - Fundamentals: Driven by anti - involution and meeting expectations, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, and zinc prices have rebounded and then fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the increasing production situation at the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [5]. - Strategy: In the short and medium term, the short - term sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, but there seems to be no clear expectation that can reverse the supply - demand situation, and it has little to do with the fundamentals of zinc. Consider laying out short positions in SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - The macro situation shows different probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions in July and September. The fundamentals indicate a shift in the zinc supply - demand balance towards surplus, and the strategy suggests shorting SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Part 2: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of a marginally looser zinc ore supply remains unchanged [7]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports has boosted processing fees. As of July 11, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $66.48/ton, and that for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton, with both having been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [19]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [24]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [26]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be noted [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approaches, social inventories of zinc have slightly increased [31]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of July 11, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.36/ton. As the off - season approaches, the domestic spot premium has declined [34]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 4, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 20,595 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The US has extended the tariff exemption period for various countries until August 1st. The impact of US tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and there is a risk of emotional shocks similar to the situation in 2018. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and there are strong expectations for macro - policies before the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - The real - estate sales are seasonally declining at a low level, and the service industry is experiencing structural differentiation and a decline due to high summer temperatures. The manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, and there may be a decline in the third quarter. The PPI deteriorated significantly in June, and domestic anti - involution policies are expected to reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a recovery in prices [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally neutral, with marginal tightening. Overseas liquidity is also tightening marginally. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from an oversold position. The domestic stock market will receive south - flowing return funds, but there is an outflow from passive ETF shares. IPO and other equity financing are increasing, and margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, while the pressure of share unlocks is decreasing marginally [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a relatively high level in the historical range. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad has further declined, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the broad - based index market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then decline. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures after a sharp rise this week. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, and short IF and IH on rallies, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of long IM and short IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: A - shares led the rise last week, while US stocks led the decline. The ranking of index increases is: ChiNext Index > German stock market > Shenzhen Component Index > FTSE Europe > Hang Seng Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Nikkei 225 > NASDAQ Index. Specific increases include: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [8][9]. - **Industry Performance**: The comprehensive finance industry led the rise, while the automobile industry led the decline [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.56%, 0.46%, 0.56%, and 0.67% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.08%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.22% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF and IM narrowing slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.1%, 0.17%, 0.15%, and 0.33% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major index futures converging significantly, especially for IM [21]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: Margin trading funds flowed in 20.78 billion yuan last week, reaching 1.87 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.25%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3065.57 billion yuan, an increase of 39.88 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 1988.43 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.09 billion shares from the previous week [24]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first two weeks of July, equity financing was 19.42 billion yuan, with 3 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 3.98 billion yuan, private placement was 15.44 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.45 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing increased marginally. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 39.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.58 billion yuan from the previous week [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 652.2 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 425.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection in June, with a total of 300 billion yuan injected and 182 billion yuan expired. The overall liquidity supply is neutral, with marginal tightening [30]. - **Monetary Demand**: The net monetary demand from national debt, local debt, and other bonds was 193.14 billion yuan, 152.2 billion yuan, and 405.57 billion yuan respectively last week. The total net monetary demand from the bond market was 750.91 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market remained high [33]. - **Fund Price**: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 4.9bp, 4.3bp, and 2bp respectively to 1.47%, 1.4%, and 1.33%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 4.1bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks rebounded by 3.6bp to 1.63%. The overall fund price rebounded slightly [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds changed by 2.2bp, 3.5bp, and 4.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year policy - bank bonds changed by 3.2bp, 4.7bp, and 3.7bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to flatten, and the credit spread between treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 11th, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield changed by 8.0bp to 4.43%, the inflation expectation changed by 4.0bp to 2.37%, and the real interest rate changed by 4.0bp to 2.06%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 5.76bp to - 276.54bp, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly by 0.12% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real - Estate Demand**: As of July 10th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.549 million square meters, a significant seasonal decline from 3.329 million square meters in the previous week. The second - hand housing sales also declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real - estate market sales are generally at a low level, and the financial market expects the introduction of urban renewal policies [45]. - **Service Industry Activities**: As of July 11th, the average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities was 83.91 million, a 0.5% decrease from the same period last year but a 25.2% increase from 2021. The congestion delay index in 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week. The service industry economic activities are approaching a natural growth and stable level [48]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry showed a mixed trend. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 0.39%, that of asphalt changed by 1%, that of cement clinker enterprises changed by 0.73%, and that of coke enterprises changed by - 0.3%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased significantly by 0.67% from the previous week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods and passenger flows are at a relatively high level, with strong growth in the postal express and civil aviation sectors. However, the highway and railway transportation are relatively weak, and there is a risk of a seasonal decline in July - August [57]. - **Import and Export**: The logic of the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is coming to an end, and the port cargo throughput and container throughput have declined significantly. There is a risk of a second decline after the end of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in July - August [60]. - **Overseas**: The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes are still hawkish. Most officials support a rate cut in September due to concerns about the impact of tariffs. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025, with a rate cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the rate cut times are expected to be in September and December [62]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.27%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week, and was at the 65.4% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 4.07%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous week, and was at the 22.4% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are at the 81.1%, 73.9%, 82.9%, and 65.7% quantiles respectively in the past five years, and the attractiveness of the valuations decreased marginally [64][69]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal patterns, the stock market is in a period of seasonal oscillation and growth with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There is a risk of the market reaching a peak and adjusting in the middle and late July. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on dips and shorting IF and IH on rallies [72]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week, China will release data on June's currency and real economy. Overseas markets should pay attention to the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the Fed's economic situation beige book, which will affect the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate path [75].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. On the cost side, the U.S. soybean planting area report had a neutral impact, and the quarterly inventory report had a bearish impact. The market focus shifted to the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas, as well as export and crushing demand. Currently, the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and as of July 1st, the drought in U.S. soybean - producing areas dropped to 8%. Additionally, U.S. soybean demand is performing well. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans were 701,400 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous period. The U.S. Senate passed the 45Z tax bill, and the biodiesel policy is favorable for crushing demand, with U.S. soybean oil performing strongly. With these mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuated upwards. - In China, recently, the arrival of soybeans at ports has been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal levels, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. At the same time, the downstream restocking has weakened recently, putting pressure on the spot price of soybean meal. Moreover, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of oil mills have entered an accumulation cycle. Among them, the soybean inventory is 6.66 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons compared to last week; the soybean - meal inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of 180,000 tons compared to last week. - Strategy: With mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuate upwards. From May to July in China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level in the same period, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, the downstream restocking has weakened, and the spot price fluctuates weakly. In the medium - to - long term, the reduction in the U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed. The subsequent market will focus on weather speculation, and the Sino - U.S. tariff issue will continue to ferment. It is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. 3) Summary by Directory Main Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The cost - side factors of U.S. soybeans are mixed, with the market focusing on weather, export, and crushing demand. In China, the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and downstream restocking has weakened. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as the reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, weather speculation, and Sino - U.S. tariffs need to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Market Review - As of July 4th, the CBOT soybean closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 23 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 2.24%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan per ton, up 8 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.27% [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - side**: The weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas will have sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the next two weeks. As of June 29th, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 seasons increased compared to the previous week. Brazil's soybean export in June is estimated to be 13.93 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the Brazilian real continues to appreciate, and the near - month soybean premium has gradually increased [12][24][30]. - **Supply**: In the 26th week of 2025 (June 21st - June 27th), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 2.73 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the 27th week (June 28th - July 4th), the actual soybean - crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than the estimate. The soybean - meal transaction volume increased to 828,700 tons, an increase of 18.23%, and the提货 volume increased to 938,400 tons, a decrease of 4.10% [12][33][35]. - **Inventory**: In the 26th week of 2025, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of major domestic oil mills increased, while the unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons compared to last week, an increase of 4.37% and 17.68% year - on - year. The soybean - meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons compared to last week, an increase of 35.90% and a decrease of 34.32% year - on - year [42]. Spread Tracking The report mentions data sources for spread - tracking indicators such as the soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, the oil - to - meal ratio, the soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and the soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread, but no specific spread - tracking data is provided [45][47][50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for the US biodiesel hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Last week, rapeseed and palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of soybean oil moved down again. The passing of the 43Z Act has realized short - term benefits, and the US biodiesel policy hearing will be held on the 8th - 9th. The US has launched a new round of tariff wars globally, increasing macro - risks. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 1 - 5% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in June, a 4 - 12% increase in exports, and a slight 0.24% decrease in end - of - month inventory. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. In the US, the soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. In China, the spot trading of soybean oil is average, and there is restocking of palm oil. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with 4 new palm oil purchase contracts added in July in late June. The inventories of soybean and palm oil have increased to 960,000 tons and 540,000 tons respectively. The rebound space of CBOT soybeans is limited. In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 61% to nearly 1 million tons. Institutions expect an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, a reverse - seasonal decline in production, and a halt in inventory growth in June. Coupled with the short - term benefits of US biodiesel, BMD crude palm oil has reached the 4000 mark again. The export of Canadian rapeseed is strong, with annual exports exceeding 9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 50%. The supply of old - crop rapeseed remains tight, and the producing areas of rapeseed continue to be strong [7]. - In operation, the short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been digested. The market is waiting for the hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Coupled with the resurgence of global tariff disputes, the upward trend of rapeseed and palm oil has slowed down. For long - term unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. The spread between September rapeseed and palm oil is in the range of 1100 - 1200, and the strategy of expanding the spread should be held cautiously [8] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for relevant events. The market situation of various oils at home and abroad is analyzed, including production, inventory, and trading volume. Strategies are proposed based on the above analysis [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, domestic and foreign palm oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil all stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of Dalian soybean oil moved down [10]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: The 45Z tax credit act has been passed, realizing short - term benefits for US biodiesel, and the market is waiting for the hearing on the 8th - 9th. The US has restarted a tariff war globally [13]. - **US Soybeans**: The area affected by drought in US soybeans has further shrunk, and the good - to - excellent rate remains at 66%. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 140 cents per bushel [13]. - **Palm Oil**: Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil production in June decreased by 1 - 5%, exports increased by 4 - 12%, and end - of - month inventory decreased slightly by 0.24%. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. Institutions estimate that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, a nearly 11 - month high [13]. - **Import and Crushing**: In late June, 4 new palm oil purchase contracts for July were added. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with an increase in arrivals. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate. The rapeseed crushing rate has continued to decline to a low of 40,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has stopped decreasing [13]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the soybean oil inventory has accumulated for 9 consecutive weeks to 960,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory has dropped below 800,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 100,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory has increased significantly to 540,000 tons, completely out of the low - inventory range. The accumulation of soybean and palm oil inventories has led to an increase in the total inventory of the three major oils to 2.18 million tons, compared with 1.77 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - **Spot**: Last week, the spot prices of oils fluctuated as a whole. As of July 4th, the price of soybean oil was 8135 yuan per ton, a 1.15% decrease from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8635 yuan per ton, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9783 yuan per ton, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [13]. - **Demand**: Last week, the overall spot trading volume of oils decreased. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 32,200 tons, compared with 77,700 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2432 tons, compared with 7766 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 4000 tons in the previous week [13]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not provided in the content

政策预期升温 猪价偏强震荡 正信期货生猪周报 2025-7-7 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重持续下降、标肥价差小幅走低、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | | | | 长期来看，基于生猪基本面周期推演，判断2025年生猪养殖行业已进入压力期，猪价在压力期将面 | | | 供应 | 临下行压力。但今年政府对引导物价合理回升极为重视，5月下旬已启动生猪行业降重去产能，政策 | 偏多 | | | 调控的持续性可能缩短此次压力期持续的时间，减缓猪价下跌幅度。短期来看，仔猪供应和需求的 | | | | 领先指标显示，猪价在8月之前易涨难跌。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅增加，屠宰利润窄幅波动，鲜效率继续下降，冻品库存小幅上升处于近4年历史同 | | | 需求 | 期低位。 | 偏空 | | | 天气炎热叠加大中院校陆续放假均对猪肉消费有利空，下游消费难以承接猪价持续快速上涨，或对 | | | | 市场涨势形成一定牵制。 | | | 利润 | 自繁自养养殖利润处于盈亏平衡附近，猪粮比价处于近4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices continued to decline. The fundamentals of US corn remain bearish, but the export net sales met expectations, leading to a slightly stronger trend. In the domestic market, wheat prices are supported by reserve purchases, and corn spot prices are temporarily stable, but the continuous auction of imported corn has weakened the futures market. In the medium to long term, corn prices may rise first and then fall, with a supply - demand gap in the third quarter and large supply pressure in the fourth quarter [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Points - The US corn fundamentals are bearish, with the drought - affected area dropping to 12% as of July 1. The export net sales of 147,000 tons last week met expectations, and the price showed a slightly stronger trend. In the domestic market, wheat harvest is basically over, and reserve purchases support wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn has weakened the futures market. The current feed enterprise inventory is relatively abundant, and both the breeding and processing industries are in the off - season. In the long run, corn prices may rise first and then fall [6]. Market Review - As of July 4, the CBOT09 corn closed at 421.00 cents per bushel, up 9.75 points from last week, a weekly increase of 2.37%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,353 yuan per ton, down 31 points from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.30% [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **US Corn Weather**: There will be sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks [13]. - **US Corn Growth**: As of the week of June 29, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 73%, higher than the expected 70%, up from 70% the previous week and 67% in the same period last year. The silking rate was 8%, up from 4% the previous week, compared with 10% last year and a five - year average of 6%. As of the week of July 1, about 12% of the US corn - growing area was affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and 8% last year [13][21]. - **US Corn Export**: As of the week of June 26, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 533,000 tons, down from 741,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 940,000 tons, up from 306,000 tons the previous week [13][25]. - **Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises**: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, down 0.63 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [13][29]. - **Domestic Inventory - Processing Enterprises**: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1763 million tons of corn, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week. The corn processing volume of starch enterprises was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from last week. The weekly corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week, and the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from last week. As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [13][31][35]. - **Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,000 tons, and the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 300,000 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 505,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from last week; and the imported barley was 340,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from last week [13][37]. Spread Tracking No specific spread data analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - corn spread are mentioned [39][40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Spot prices are generally stable, and futures are mainly volatile. The peanut market in various regions continued to adjust weakly and steadily this week, with the price center sinking. The purchase of grassroots supplies has basically ended. The inventory level in the circulation link is not high, and the import volume of peanuts has decreased significantly year - on - year. New - season peanut planting area has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. Before the demand improves, peanut prices may remain weak, but inventory pressure is not large, and the price - holding psychology of holders will support the price decline. In the short term, spot prices are likely to fluctuate weakly within a range, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand. For futures, the medium - and short - term market should focus on the price performance at both ends of the range of 8000 - 8400, and the trend market may still need to wait [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - Spot prices are generally stable, futures are volatile. The peanut market is weak and stable, with the price center sinking. New - season peanut planting area increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. Before demand improves, prices may remain weak, but inventory pressure is small, and price - holding psychology supports the price. Short - term spot prices may fluctuate weakly, and long - term depends on weather and demand. For futures, focus on the 8000 - 8400 range [6]. 3.2 Market Review - **2.1 Overall Performance**: The rebound of peanuts this week was weak, and the callback of the oil and fat sector was stronger than that of peanuts. The peanut weighted index oscillated weakly back to near the lower edge of the range, while the oil and fat sector quickly broke through the upper edge of the range, and its price callback support was stronger than that of peanuts [7][9]. - **2.2 2510 Contract**: The upward movement of the peanut 2510 contract lacked momentum in terms of closing price and trading volume [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate**: The weekly inventory of peanut oil was 39,410 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate of oil mills was 4.74%, a decrease of about 2.0% compared with last week [16]. - **3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha)**: The domestic peanut market was weak, with the price center sinking. The purchase of grassroots supplies basically ended, and trading was light [20]. - **3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend**: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week was 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [24]. - **3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend**: Peanut meal prices oscillated weakly this week, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal oscillated strongly [28]. - **3.5 Imported Peanut Quantity and Price**: There were few imported peanuts. Sudanese refined peanuts were in short supply, and new peanuts had not arrived at the port. Import prices were stable, and the procurement of Senegalese supplies was limited [31]. - **3.6 Market Price Index Compared with Last Month**: In the wholesale market, peanut prices were mostly negotiated, and the overall transaction price was relatively stable [35]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - **4.1 Basis Spread**: The basis spread data of peanuts - Baisha is provided, but no specific analysis conclusion is given [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for the egg industry is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the de - capacity of laying hens is insufficient, and the egg - laying rate won't decline rapidly before entering the dog days. The Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is still early. The main sales area's sales decreased slightly this week, and the inventory in both production and circulation links fluctuated slightly. The stocking may be postponed due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival and slow de - capacity. The breeding profit continues to decline, and the egg basis decreased slightly this week. The near - far spread of egg futures is at a medium level, and the net short position of institutional investors in the main contract decreased but with high volatility. In the context of low overall commodity valuations and short - sellers leaving, macro funds may allocate more to domestic varieties. The pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength in egg futures is expected to continue, and 9 - 11, 9 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes analysis of spot prices (comparison between main production area and main sales area prices), egg basis (for each futures contract), egg spreads (among different futures contracts), and futures institutional net positions (such as the long - short difference and ratio of the August contract) [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects like laying hen inventory and its structure, chicken culling (price and average culling age), replenishment (price of commercial laying hen chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and the situation of large and small - sized eggs (price and seasonal spread) [15][17][20][22] Demand Analysis - Focuses on the shipment volume and sales volume (in main production and sales areas), inventory (in production and circulation links), and substitutes (price ratios with pork and vegetables) [25][28][31] Profit Analysis - Analyzes breeding profit (current and expected) and the egg - feed price ratio (including the balance point and seasonal chart) [34][35]

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：美国关税谈判大限将至，但与多数国家谈判陷入僵局，美国经济政策不确定性指数长期持续处于历史高位，美国 的逆全球化和贸易保护主义行为对全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，制造业、出口型企业股票和大宗商品等资产收益受损 ，在当前全球经济与地缘政治不稳定的环境下，贵金属作为一项战略性资产具备良好的抵御风险能力，贵金属等避险资产需 求上升，全球央行加仓黄金意愿更加强烈。 资金面：上周COMEX黄金和白银库存有所回落；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，近4 3 %的央行计划在未来一年内 增加自身黄金储备；全球主要白银ETF资金加速流入，白银较黄金资金关注度上升；上周对冲基金多头在黄金 上增持力度放缓。 策略：沪金价格长期看多，短期延续高位震荡，中期建议持多；沪银短期维持高位震荡，中期建议持多或急跌 震荡区间下沿做多。 风险提示：地缘政治冲突，美国货币与财政政策，关税贸易风险 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 宏观面：关注美国关税政策扰动 3 持仓分析：对冲基金更关注白银机会 4 其他要素 行情回顾 重点指标涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 重点数据指标 | 最新 | 一 期 | 上 一 | 期 | 周变化 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro aspect**: On July 3rd, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with an expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, expected to be 4.3%. After the release of non - farm data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in July dropped to single - digits [6]. - **Fundamental aspect**: The non - ferrous sector remained relatively strong. Last week, the zinc price fluctuated above 22,000. Processing fees continued to rise, and domestic smelter output was expected to increase. The supply of zinc ore was becoming more abundant cyclically. In 2025, several major zinc mines planned to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelter operating rates increased, and maintenance was postponed. Refined zinc output gradually recovered, and this trend was expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes might drag down the global economic growth rate, and there were concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if new trade agreements were quickly reached and the global economic growth rate remained resilient, there was no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, mainly maintaining the status quo. Whether the demand was estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tended to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [6]. - **Strategy aspect**: In the short and medium term, the rebound of the zinc price was mainly driven by the overall sentiment of the sector and commodities, with little change in its own fundamentals. The recent strength of non - ferrous metals was mainly due to regional premiums caused by tariffs, not an indication of the strengthening of the global manufacturing industry. Therefore, the sustainability of the zinc price rebound was expected to be limited, and it was advisable to consider shorting at high prices [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc concentrate output**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history and half of the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters might face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply remained unchanged [8]. - **Zinc concentrate imports and processing fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fees. As of July 4th, the processing fee for imported zinc ore was reported at $66.25/ton, and that for domestic zinc ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees had been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter profit estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits had been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined zinc output**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc output was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recovered, output was gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined zinc import profit and import volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The refined zinc import window was currently closed [21]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial consumption of refined zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [26]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 1**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction remained weak [28]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 2**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [31]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approached, social inventories of zinc increased slightly [33]. - **Spot premium/discount**: As of July 4th, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $21.64/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [36]. - **Exchange positions**: As of June 27th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 17,814 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [39].