1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the expectation of supply increase and the arrival of the terminal seasonal off - season, downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and there is a certain expectation of polyester load reduction. The supply - demand weakening expectation is strong. It is expected that PTA will continue to be weak in the short term, and the TA9 - 1 spread will continue to decline [6]. - MEG: The domestic production of ethylene glycol has a slight increase, the overseas device load decreases, and there is an expectation of reduced imports. However, the downstream polyester demand declines, and the supply - demand structure has no obvious positive support. It is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. Although the spot supply of PX was tight during the week, the large decline in costs dragged down the PX price. As of July 4, the closing price of Asian PX was 840 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared with June 27 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The planned maintenance of some PX devices was implemented, resulting in a slight decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization was 84.4%, a decrease of 2.01% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization of Asian PX was 73.48%, a decrease of 1.1% [20]. - **Price Spread**: As of July 4, the PX - naphtha price spread was 260.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton compared with June 27. Due to insufficient positive support in the fundamentals and weak demand expectations, the price spread declined from a high level [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the recovery of Hengli Petrochemical and Yisheng New Materials, the weaving load has been decreasing since the traditional off - season. The performance of polyester was not ideal, and the capacity utilization decreased. In addition, there were new device commissioning plans in July, and the expectation of supply - demand contradiction deterioration was strong, which hindered the purchasing enthusiasm and led to a significant weakening of the basis. As of July 4, the PTA spot price was 4835 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 101 [26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The unexpected load reduction of Yisheng Hainan limited the increase in PTA capacity utilization. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. In July, Helen Petrochemical planned to be put into production, and Hengli had a maintenance plan. It was expected that the PTA capacity utilization would fluctuate slightly [29]. - **Processing Fee**: With the arrival of the traditional off - season at the terminal, the demand - side support was insufficient, and the supply side recovered. Under the expectation of supply - demand deterioration, the PTA processing fee dropped significantly this week. Next week, there was still an expectation of supply increase, and with the approaching of new device commissioning, it was expected that the PTA processing fee would decline slightly [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, although the maintenance of upstream PX was acceptable, new PTA devices were planned to be put into production, and polyester production cuts were implemented. The PTA supply - demand margin weakened, and the balance sheet was expected to accumulate inventory [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the geopolitical situation was alleviated, ethylene glycol prices fell and then rebounded from the bottom due to the news of Saudi device shutdown. As of July 4, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4361 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4390 yuan/ton [39]. - **Domestic Production**: The total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol was 59.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. In July, with the restart of maintenance enterprises, domestic production was expected to increase. In terms of imports, although the devices in Malaysia and Iran restarted, the Saudi device shutdown led to a slight increase in overall supply [42]. - **Import Volume**: As of July 3, the total port inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 542,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with June 30 and an increase of 36,300 tons compared with June 26. As of July 9, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 84,300 tons [45]. - **Processing Profit**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, but the import arrival was expected to decrease. During the traditional demand off - season, the downstream polyester load continued to decline. As of July 4, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 93.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.09 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 19.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170.73 yuan/ton compared with last week [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester was 88.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Although the load of some filament enterprises increased during the week, the large - scale production cut of Yisheng Hainan's device led to a slight decline in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [52]. - **Polyester Output**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and the large cash - flow pressure of polyester, it is expected that the monthly output of polyester will decline significantly [54]. - **Inventory of Filament Factories**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament increased by 1.28% compared with the previous period, mainly due to the output increase brought by the restart of previously maintained devices. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber decreased by 0.30% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was stable [59]. - **Inventory of Polyester Products**: Due to poor demand performance, the factory sales data remained sluggish, and the finished product inventory gradually increased [60]. - **Polyester Cash - Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and manufacturers successively carried out price promotions during the week. The transaction center decreased month - on - month, and the cash - flow of most models was compressed [64]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of July 3, the operating load of the weaving industry was 58.09%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.32 days, a decrease of 0.74 days compared with last week. The current textile market is cautiously bearish, and downstream orders have insufficient sustainability [69]. 3.5 Summary of the Fundamental Situation of the Polyester Industrial Chain - **Cost End**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. The large decline in costs dragged down the PX price [71]. - **Supply End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of PTA increased slightly, while the total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol decreased slightly [71]. - **Demand End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester decreased, and the operating load of the weaving industry declined. Terminal consumption was weak, and downstream orders had insufficient sustainability [71]. - **Inventory**: The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China increased [71].

煤矿逐步复产，盘面反弹受阻 煤焦周度报告 20250707 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面延续反弹，但基本面有所走弱，涨势恐难持续；现货暂稳 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工延续小幅下滑，供应尚未恢复 | | | 需求 | 铁水转而下滑，钢厂后续补库力度或减弱；投机情绪偏好，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 下游补库，上游、港口去库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周初煤矿复产消息传来，双焦走弱；周三、周四受反内卷提振大幅拉涨；周五市场情绪有所回落，加之铁水回落，双焦再度走弱；整体维持震荡走势。 截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨1.6%至1433，焦煤09合约涨0.66%至839.5。焦炭方面，焦化厂因环保、部分检修等，供应未完全恢 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250707 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For aluminum in the inter - period strategy, domestic demand has entered the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods are starting to accumulate inventory, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching, so there is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in the inter - period reverse arbitrage of aluminum by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety strategy of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental output this year. While aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper decreased by 0.27% (from 9879 to 9852), LME aluminum increased by 0.10% (from 2595 to 2597.5), LME zinc decreased by 1.55% (from 2778.5 to 2735.5), LME lead increased by 0.76% (from 2041.5 to 2057), LME nickel increased by 0.46% (from 15190 to 15260), LME tin increased by 0.61% (from 33565 to 33770). SHFE copper decreased by 0.24% (from 79920 to 79730), SHFE aluminum increased by 0.27% (from 20580 to 20635), SHFE zinc remained unchanged (at 22410), SHFE lead increased by 0.99% (from 17125 to 17295), SHFE nickel increased by 1.49% (from 120480 to 122270), and SHFE tin decreased by 0.60% (from 268870 to 267250) [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral positions of most non - ferrous metals are at relatively low levels in recent years. The unilateral positions of aluminum and lead increased by 3.0% and 4.3% respectively this week, while those of zinc, nickel, and tin decreased by 2.8%, 7.3%, and 7.2% respectively. Except for tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From June 27, 2025, to July 4, 2025, LME copper inventory increased by 4.38% (from 91275 to 95275), LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.42% (from 345200 to 363925), LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.79% (from 119225 to 112325), LME lead inventory decreased by 3.71% (from 273425 to 263275), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.89% (from 204294 to 202470), and LME tin inventory decreased by 2.99% (from 2175 to 2110) [27]. - **Profit**: For copper, the processing fee increased slightly this week, and smelters had a loss of 2592 yuan/ton, with the loss narrowing slightly compared to last week. For aluminum, the theoretical smelting cost this week was 18348 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit decreased slightly to 2402 yuan/ton. For zinc, the import processing fee increased slightly this week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic mines was 1112 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of July 4, 2025, the copper basis was 790 (compared to 420 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.99%, a one - year basis quantile of 92.98%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.12%. The aluminum basis was 115 (compared to 360 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.56%, a one - year basis quantile of 80.79%, and a three - year basis quantile of 76.03%. The zinc basis was 80 (compared to 280 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.36%, a one - year basis quantile of 35.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.78%. The lead basis was - 35 (compared to 135 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of - 0.20%, a one - year basis quantile of 33.26%, and a three - year basis quantile of 36.43%. The nickel basis was 1590 (compared to 2060 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 1.30%, a one - year basis quantile of 77.07%, and a three - year basis quantile of 42.70%. The tin basis was 570 (compared to 1340 on June 27), with a basis premium rate of 0.21%, a one - year basis quantile of 59.71%, and a three - year basis quantile of 56.47% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. The spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract of copper was - 260, a decrease of 100 compared to last week; that of aluminum was - 180, an increase of 20 compared to last week; that of zinc was - 30, an increase of 50 compared to last week; that of lead was 55, an increase of 5 compared to last week; that of nickel was 120, a decrease of 40 compared to last week; and that of tin was 260, a decrease of 60 compared to last week [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of basic metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.14 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.12 for nickel, and 1.10 for tin. This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 155 and 46 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [79]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences for various non - ferrous metal combinations, including copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, etc., as well as their corresponding quantiles [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption this week brings uncertainty. The impact of tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and it's necessary to guard against the negative emotional impact of Trump's extreme pressure. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and the market expects positive signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - In the medium - term, real estate sales are seasonally rising at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and seasonally warming up in summer. Consumption is boosted by fiscal subsidies, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export is ending, with a possible decline in the third quarter. Domestic anti - involution policies may reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a rebound in prices [4]. - Domestically, liquidity is generally loose, while overseas, it is marginally tightening. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from oversold levels. The domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but the pressure of share unlocks remains [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral to high level, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The stock market may rise in an oscillating manner in the third quarter. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures after sharp declines due to tariff policy shocks this week. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: Last week, US stocks led the rise, and the Hang Seng Technology Index led the decline. The performance order is Nasdaq > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > Shanghai Composite Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > German Stock Market > Nikkei 225 > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Technology [8]. - **Industry Performance**: Steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline. The order is Steel > Bank > Building Materials > Medicine... > Transportation > Comprehensive > Computer > Comprehensive Finance [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.22%, 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.05% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH significantly narrowing. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.05%, - 0.23%, - 0.27%, and - 0.31% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.05%, - 0.31%, - 0.44%, and - 0.48% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly widening [15][16]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 19.71 billion yuan, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 302.83 billion yuan, an increase of 13.89 billion yuan from last week, and the share was 199.171 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.48 billion shares from last week [25]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first week of July, equity financing was 3.67 billion yuan, with 1 company. Among them, IPO financing was 640 million yuan, private placement was 0 yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.03 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing declined significantly. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 90.83 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at the second - highest level this year [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 202.75 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase of 65.22 billion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. After the end of the quarter, the open - market operations recovered liquidity. MLF had a net injection for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral [30]. - **Money Demand**: Last week, the net money demand for national debt was 19.993 billion yuan, for local debt was 4.361 billion yuan, and for other bonds was 34.787 billion yuan. The total net money demand in the bond market was 59.141 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [33]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 27.4bp, - 9.9bp, and - 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.31%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 5.9bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 8.1bp to 1.59%. The overall fund price was oscillating at a low level [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yield curve flattened. The central bank's liquidity recovery in the open market made the short - end stronger, and the credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 4th, the US 10 - year bond rate increased by 6.0bp to 4.35%, the inflation expectation increased by 4.0bp to 2.33%, and the real interest rate increased by 2.00bp to 2.02%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 6.40bp to - 270.78bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 3rd, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally recovered to 3.329 million square meters, but was still at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales seasonally declined to the lowest level in the past seven years. The overall real estate market sales were weak, and more incremental policies were expected [46]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of July 4th, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, with a daily average of 83.58 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 32.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021. The service industry's economic activity seasonally recovered in summer. The Baidu Hundred - City Traffic Congestion Delay Index remained flat compared to last week, at a neutral level in the past three years [50]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate declined across the board. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased by 0.54%, that of asphalt increased by 0.2%, that of cement clinker enterprises decreased by 6.7%, and that of coke enterprises decreased by 0.18%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.45% compared to last week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: Both goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels. The number of civil aviation flights for summer tourism consumption increased strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, with limited growth, and there was a risk of a second seasonal decline from July to August [57]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks continued. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, it was necessary to guard against the risk of a second decline due to renewed trade frictions after the expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption [60]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US May non - farm payrolls report slightly exceeded expectations, but the structure implied a cooling signal. The US non - farm employment showed certain resilience, and the service industry PMI rebounded unexpectedly. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2025 was reduced to 2 times, with a cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 4.7% [62][66]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium last week was 3.35%, a 0.06% decrease from last week, at the 68.8% percentile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.24%, a 0.21% decrease from last week, at the 24.3% percentile, indicating a low level of foreign - capital attractiveness. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 79.9%, 72.9%, 78.2%, and 60.3% percentiles in the past five years respectively, and the attractiveness of each index's valuation decreased marginally [69][74]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal rules, the stock market is in a seasonally oscillating and rising period with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. In general, the market is likely to rise in July. Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on pullbacks, short - term shorting on sharp rises of IF and IH, and medium - term long - term on sharp declines. This week, the market is greatly disturbed by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. If there are negative impacts, pay attention to going long on the growth style on sharp declines [77]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week's financial calendar includes China's June CPI and PPI data, and attention should be paid to whether prices have stabilized and rebounded. Overseas markets should focus on the US Treasury auctions and the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy negotiations with other countries [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The spot steel prices fluctuated slightly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. The supply from blast furnaces increased, but the output from electric arc furnaces decreased. The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, and the inventory of plates increased significantly. The demand for building materials weakened seasonally, and both domestic and external demand for plates declined month - on - month. The profit of steel mills expanded due to coke price cuts. The basis narrowed significantly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit. Overall, in June, the blast furnace operation continued to rise, hot metal production recovered slightly, and electric arc furnaces continued to cut production. Considering the pressure of declining demand for finished products in July and August, a medium - term short - selling strategy is maintained. Hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. Iron Ore - The spot iron ore prices dropped significantly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. Global shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources at ports also increased. Hot metal production remained at a high level and is expected to maintain its resilience. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices fluctuated downward. There is no trading space in the futures price spread, but attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01. In June, the supply was abundant, and demand was strong. Affected by the improvement in the coal fundamentals, the ore price rebounded strongly. However, considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further price increases is low. A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained, and attention should be paid to opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In June, the price of rebar was in a low - level oscillation, with the rebar 10 - contract futures price rising by 48 to 3009 and the hot - rolled coil futures price rising by 53 to 3129. In the spot market, the Shanghai rebar price was 3090 (down 40), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3200 (up 40). The hot - rolled coil was significantly stronger than rebar, mainly due to seasonal factors [8]. 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production remained at a high level. As of June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82% (unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71 percentage points year - on - year), the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83% (up 0.04 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.70 percentage points year - on - year), and the daily average hot metal output was 242.29 tons (up 0.11 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 tons year - on - year). The output of building materials decreased, with the long - process rebar output dropping by 80,000 tons. The electric arc furnace supply decreased significantly. As of the end of June, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.5% (down 0.04 percentage points from the previous month and up 3.13 percentage points year - on - year) [11][19]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by nearly 300,000 tons month - on - month in June, and was 140,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The actual terminal demand, represented by the national concrete shipment, decreased by 10% month - on - month. The speculative demand decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month, but there was a slight increase at the end of the month. For hot - rolled coils, the apparent demand was basically flat compared with May. Domestic demand was weak, with the off - season characteristics of the automobile industry being obvious and the demand for household appliances declining year - on - year. The external demand for plates was weak [25][28]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of blast furnace steelmaking continued to increase, mainly due to two rounds of coke price cuts. The profit of rebar in Tangshan expanded by 80, approaching 230, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was similar. The loss of electric arc furnace steelmaking expanded, mainly due to the relatively high price of scrap steel [32]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, as of June 30, the social inventory decreased by 310,000 tons month - on - month, and the mill inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down, but the inventory accumulation period had not yet arrived. For hot - rolled coils, the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons, and the mill inventory increased by 30,000 tons. It entered the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory pressure was gradually emerging [35][39]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed significantly. The basis of rebar narrowed by 74 from the end of May to June 27, and the basis of hot - rolled coils narrowed by 5. The previously recommended reverse arbitrage positions were all closed at a profit, and there were no obvious short - term trading opportunities [42]. 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - In June, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar remained inverted, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 6 to - 10. Considering the upcoming seasonal off - season, the inversion may deepen [45]. 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market widened slightly from 115 to 126, and the spot spread widened from 30 to 110. It is expected that there is limited room for further widening, and there are no obvious trend - trading opportunities [48]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In June, the iron ore price rebounded from a low level. The futures price rose by 13.5 to 715.5, while the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped by 28 to 707 yuan/ton [53]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipment in June was 3.4566 billion tons, an increase of 247 million tons compared with May and 72 million tons compared with June last year. The weekly average shipment from Australia was 2.0517 billion tons (up 199 million tons from May and 8 million tons from June last year), and that from Brazil was 820 million tons (up 27 million tons from May and 19 million tons from June last year). The arrival of iron ore at ports also increased. The weekly average arrival in June was 2.6547 billion tons, an increase of 170 million tons compared with May and 143 million tons compared with June last year [56][59][62]. 2.3 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the blast furnace operation rate oscillated and increased in June. It is expected that the average daily hot metal production in July will remain at around 2.4 million tons, and the daily consumption is expected to increase accordingly. In terms of speculative demand, the monthly average daily iron ore trading volume at ports decreased slightly from 940,000 tons last month to about 920,000 tons [65][68]. 2.4 Inventory - As of June 27, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.43356 billion tons, a decrease of 70 million tons compared with the previous month, 1.177 billion tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1.113 billion tons compared with the same period last year. The steel mill inventory decreased. As of June 30, the steel mill ore powder inventory was 8.847 billion tons, a decrease of 53 million tons compared with the previous month's average [71][74]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping prices from Australia and Brazil to Qingdao first rose and then fell in June. Geopolitical factors affected the downstream restocking rhythm, and the freight rates decreased significantly after the conflict eased [77]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore futures narrowed from 35.5 to 25.5, and there was no obvious trading value. The basis of the 09 contract narrowed significantly from 53 to 8. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01 [80][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, corn prices showed a volatile trend. The USDA supply - demand report in June had a limited impact on US corn, being neutral, while the planting area report significantly increased the planned planting area of US corn. Combined with the fast sowing speed of the new - season US corn and favorable weather in the production areas, the price of US corn was under pressure and trended weakly. In China, the continuous wheat harvest in June led to low wheat prices, triggering the state - reserve minimum purchase price, and many local reserves started to enter the market to buy wheat, supporting the wheat price. Corn was in the off - season period, with fewer shipments from traders, low vehicle arrivals at Shandong processing enterprises, and firm spot prices in Northeast China [6]. - In terms of demand, feed enterprises had relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of breeding demand restricted restocking, so feed enterprises purchased as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry was entering the off - season, with low processing profits [6]. - Strategy: US corn will continue to decline to find the bottom. The entry of reserves into the market to buy wheat supports the firm wheat price. In the short term, the shipments of domestic corn traders are gradually decreasing, but the market is worried about the state - reserve corn selling, so the short - term corn price may fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, as grain sources are gradually transferred to channels, channel dealers hold back supplies, port inventories continue to be consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, supporting the bullish expectation for corn. However, domestic corn will still face the situation of traders selling in the later period, and it is expected that the corn price will decline from its high at the end of the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - As of June 30, CBOT07 corn closed at 409.00 cents per bushel, down 14.00 points from the previous month's close, a monthly decline of 3.31%. C2509 corn closed at 2,378 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, a monthly increase of 0.81% [11]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Balance Sheet - US Corn - In the 2024/25 season, US corn exports increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion bushels. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased by 50 million bushels to 17.21 billion bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels [12][13]. 3.2.2. Foreign - US Corn Growth - As of the week ending June 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72%, 72% in the previous week, and 69% in the same period last year. The emergence rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, 96% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 98%. The silking rate was 4%, the same as in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 3%. As of the week ending June 24, about 16% of the US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 6% in the same period last year [16]. 3.2.3. Foreign - US Corn Exports - As of the week ending June 19, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 741,000 tons, down from 904,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of corn in the 2025/2026 season were 306,000 tons, up from 155,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales of US corn this season reached 54.7585 million tons, accounting for 81.35% of the June USDA report's estimate [19]. 3.2.4. Domestic Supply - Imported Corn - In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn and corn flour, a year - on - year decrease of 81.6%. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of corn and corn flour were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93.7% [24]. 3.2.5. Domestic Demand - Feed Enterprises - With the low - running pig price, pig farming was near the break - even point, and downstream feed was purchased as needed. As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, down 0.48 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [27]. 3.2.6. Domestic Demand - Corn Starch Processing Enterprises - Recently, both enterprises that completed maintenance and those with new maintenance were observed. The regional operating rates of corn starch showed different trends, and the overall industry operating rate declined slightly. As of June 27, the corn processing volume of starch enterprises in June was 2.182 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 825,000 tons (27.44%) and a year - on - year decrease of 289,000 tons (11.70%) [30]. 3.2.7. Domestic Demand - Processing Enterprises' Inventory - As of June 25, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 4.567 million tons, a decrease of 0.54% [32]. 3.2.8. Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.804 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,000 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports in that week was 338,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic - trade corn inventory was 1.133 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 3,000 tons, the same as the previous week; the imported sorghum was 468,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons from the previous week; and the imported barley was 293,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week [36]. 3.3. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [40][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This month, cotton prices fluctuated and rose. The June USDA report was bullish, but the planting area report and growth conditions were bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate monthly [6]. - In the domestic market, the decrease in cotton imports and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory led to a relatively fast de - stocking speed, supporting the futures market to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand remained weak, and the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton is expected to keep Zhengzhou cotton prices bottoming out at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report raised this year's exports, reducing the ending inventory by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales; it also lowered the next - year's harvested area and yield, with the new - year's production decreasing by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales and the ending inventory decreasing by 400,000 bales to 4.3 million bales [6]. - As of June in the U.S., cotton sowing was completed. The USDA expected the 2025 U.S. cotton area to be 10.12 million acres, higher than expected. The weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the cotton quality rate remained at a normal level. Meanwhile, the net export sales of U.S. cotton this month were relatively low [6]. - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory was continuously consumed, and imported cotton was scarce. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and under the situation of weak supply and demand, cotton prices were hard to improve [6]. - The new - season cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture was acceptable. Domestic surveys showed that the national cotton area in 2025 was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 30, ICE Cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly increase of 0.34%. CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 points from the opening, with a monthly decrease of 3.50% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Balance Sheet**: For the 2025/26 season, the expected harvested area was 8.19 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 acres; the expected yield per acre was 820 pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 12 pounds; the expected ending inventory was 4.3 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 900,000 bales [12][14]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Sowing Progress**: As of the week of June 22, the sowing rate was 92%, the previous week was 85%, the same period last year was 93%, and the five - year average was 95%. The cotton quality rate was 47%, the previous week was 48%, and the same period last year was 56% [12][17]. - **External Market - U.S. Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 19, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 27,000 bales, compared with 83,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 9.94 million bales, accounting for 86.43% of the June USDA report [12][21]. - **Domestic Demand - Spinning Mills**: As of June 26, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. New orders for spinning mills were few, and orders generally lasted about 15 days [25]. - **Domestic Spinning Mill Inventory**: As of the week of June 26, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.2 days of storage. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% [28]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 111,600 tons (a decrease of 3.73%). As of June 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.00% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 412,000 tons [31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking There is no specific content provided for spread tracking other than the data sources and spread types.

7月基本面料再度转弱， 双焦反弹恐难持续 煤焦月度报告 20250701 正信期货研究院 黑色小组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 6月期货低位反弹，7月恐再走弱；现货第三轮、第四轮提降落地，7月已有两轮提涨预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企因环保压力，供应有所下滑 | | | 需求 | 铁水先降后增，维持高位，后续预计下滑速率较慢；投机情绪有所好转，出口利润小幅回升，建材成交维持低位 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库为主，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 吨焦盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润回落 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水扩大，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 焦炭方面，四轮提降落地，原料煤企稳部分反弹，焦企盈利压缩，供应维持小幅缩减状态。铁水微增，部分钢厂开始恢复正 常采购节奏，多数刚需采购；部分投机需求进场分流货源。 | | | 价格 供应 | 6月期货低位反弹，7月恐再走弱；现货走弱为主，近期部分煤种小幅反弹 6月产地煤矿停 ...

正信期货铜月报202506 投资咨询号:Z0016959 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 内容要点 宏观层面：6月铜价继续横盘整理，价格缺少方向，博弈也并不激烈，波动率继续回落。需求季节性转 淡尚未完全体现，但关税问题的再发酵，对于悬而未决的铜市场来说通过贸易套利和库存转移再度支撑 起了铜价，尤其是月底LME铜现货升贴水走势异常，出现了自2021年逼仓式的高升水，宏观层面并未有 新驱动产生，美国"硬数据"尚可，但美联储按兵不动，唯一变化在于特朗普提前物色下一任美联储主 席，引发市场对降息的乐观预期。关注7月的美国就业数据变化和关税谈判进展是宏观预期驱动可能出 现变化的地方。 产业基本面：年中长单谈判以0美元落地，冶炼厂长单盈利能力大幅受挫，当前国内产量维持高位， 硫酸与副产品利润勉强弥补亏损，但利润结构极不健康。需求一端来看，国内淡季逐渐加深，现货升水 高位回落，但受内外价差影响，国内出口量增多导致累库预期不强，基本面能给到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The results of the second Sino-US meeting were not significant. The US initiated new home appliance tariff policies and restrictions on key chip equipment. With the 90-day exemption period for various countries ending soon, there is a risk of tariffs impacting the market again in the next two weeks. It's necessary to guard against Trump's potential extreme pressure, similar to the situation in 2018. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and potential macroeconomic positives from the Politburo meeting in late June - July should be watched [4]. - The real estate sales are seasonally recovering from a low level, but the peak season is not booming. The service industry shows structural differentiation and a slight decline from its high level. In May, production and investment in the real economy declined, while consumption took the lead with the boost of fiscal subsidies. The logic of manufacturing rush exports continues, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is marginally cooling, and prices are expected to oscillate upwards. Attention should be paid to whether fiscal policy will further support the economic center in the second half of the year [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity is also tending to be loose due to the Fed's dovish guidance and declining economic data. Financial conditions have significantly improved. Coupled with the expected rebound of the US dollar index, the domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, with inflows from passive ETFs and margin trading funds, while IPO and other equity financing and unlocking pressures remain [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a relatively high level in the historical neutral range. The stock - bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The pressure on the macro and industrial fundamentals is facing a marginal reversal, financial conditions are generally loose, and the valuations of broad - based index markets are generally not cheap. Coupled with the expected return of US tariff policy pressure, the stock market's upward path in the third quarter may be characterized by frequent setbacks, with an overall oscillatory upward trend. Policy - level macro expectations, excessive domestic liquidity, and the support of stable funds will support the lower limit of the stock market adjustment. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures during sharp declines in July. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: In the past month, A - shares led the global stock market rally, while European stocks led the decline. The performance order is: ChiNext > Dow Jones > Nikkei 225 > FTSE Emerging Markets > Hang Seng Tech > CSI 300 > German stocks > FTSE Europe. Specific index increases include: Shanghai Composite Index 2.29%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.37%, ChiNext Index 6.58%, etc. [8][9] - **Industry Performance**: In the past month, the comprehensive finance sector led the rise, while the food and beverage sector led the decline [12]. - **Futures Performance**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.48%, 0.53%, 0.91%, and 1.26% respectively, with significant narrowing of the discounts. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.16%, - 0.2%, 0.16%, and 0.16% respectively. The inter - period discount of IH increased slightly, while those of IF, IC, and IM narrowed slightly. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.08%, - 0.12%, 0.21%, and 0.35% respectively. The long - term discounts of IH and IF increased slightly, while those of IC and IM narrowed slightly [16][17] 2. Fund Flow - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: In June, margin trading funds flowed in 37.5 billion yuan, reaching 1.84 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.02% to 2.27%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds reached 3.0185 trillion yuan, exceeding 3 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of 68.35 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 199.594 billion shares, with a redemption of 7.92 billion shares from the previous month [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In June, equity financing was 541.96 billion yuan, with 6 companies involved. Among them, IPO financing was 8.73 billion yuan, private placement was 533.23 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 4.35 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing rebounded significantly to a high level. The market value of restricted - share unlockings (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, equity incentive, etc.) was 218.5 billion yuan, an increase of 109.98 billion yuan from the previous month, showing a continuous marginal increase and ranking second highest in the year [25] 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In June, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 5.298 trillion yuan, and reverse repurchase was issued at 6.3795 trillion yuan, with a net money injection of 1.0815 trillion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business was marginally loose at the end of the quarter. The MLF was issued at 300 billion yuan and matured at 182 billion yuan in June, with net issuance for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral and tending to be loose [27]. - **Money Demand**: In June, the issuance of national bonds was 1.5958 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 889.65 billion yuan, with a net money demand of 706.15 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds was 1.34898 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 484.32 billion yuan, with a net money demand of 864.65 billion yuan; the issuance of other bonds was 7.22604 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 6.6366 trillion yuan, with a net money demand of 589.43 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 10.17082 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 8.01058 trillion yuan, with a net money demand of 2.16023 trillion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market remained high, driven by the joint efforts of national bonds, local government bonds, and corporate debt financing [30]. - **Fund Price**: Last month, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 3.2bp, - 12.6bp, and - 10bp respectively, reaching 1.7%, 1.44%, and 1.37%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 0.7bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 3bp to 1.67%. The fund rate was significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly lower than the policy rate DR007 of 1.7%. The fund supply was loose, the debt financing demand was strong, but the real - economy financing was weak, and the fund price generally oscillated at a low level [33]. - **Term Structure**: Last month, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by - 2.3bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 5.6bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by - 10.3bp; the yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 2.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 5.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 5.2bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened significantly in June due to the central bank's liquidity injection in the open market, which led to a significant decline in the short - end. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the short - end [37]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: In June, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 14.0bp to 4.29%, the inflation expectation changed by - 3.0bp to 2.29%, and the real interest rate changed by - 11.0bp to 2.00%. Risk - asset prices rose due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by 5.0bp to 56.0bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 9.8bp to - 264.38bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.47%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate oscillated around the central level of the past three - year range [40] 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of June 26, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.928 million square meters, a seasonal increase from 2.021 million square meters of the previous week, but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 32.1%. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, with a slight month - on - month decrease, at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The high - frequency sales trends of new and second - hand housing in the real estate market diverged last month, with new housing recovering but second - hand housing falling back to a low level. Overall, the real estate market remained weak, and the pulse effect of the new real estate policies faded. The overall sales center of the real estate market returned to a low level, and more incremental policies were awaited for boosting [43] - **Service Industry Activity**: As of June 27, the weekly average daily passenger volume of the subway in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained at a high level, reaching 81.26 million person - times, an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period last year and 32.5% compared to the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry declined seasonally from a high level. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities rebounded compared to the previous week, at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [47] - **Manufacturing Tracking**: In June, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.14%, that of asphalt by 3.8%, that of cement clinker enterprises by 2.06%, and that of coke enterprises by - 2.31%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.24% compared to the previous month. Overall, the domestic demand trend in the manufacturing industry rebounded, while the external demand was weak [51] - **Cargo Flow**: Both cargo and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The postal express industry dominated by e - commerce and the civil aviation flight guarantee sector dominated by tourism consumption showed strong growth, with continuous weekly increases. The highway and railway transportation were relatively weak, with limited growth rates. Attention should be paid to the potential seasonal decline risk from July to August [56] - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush exports after the Sino - US trade talks continued to play out. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, the risk of a second decline after the end of the 90 - day exemption period and the resurgence of tariff frictions should be guarded against [59] - **Overseas Situation**: In May, the US PCE inflation rebounded slightly, with the core PCE reaching 2.68%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month. Structurally, it was mainly due to the significant rebound in the food and commodity sectors, which began to be affected by tariffs. The service and market - based sub - items rebounded slightly, and the decline of the energy sub - item narrowed, with the month - on - month growth rate returning to 0.2%. Assuming the tariff impact continues for the next three months with a 0.2% month - on - month growth rate, the annualized month - on - month rate is expected to rebound to 2.43%, still below the 2.5% level, providing data support for the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal during the Senate and House hearings. Coupled with the significant downward revision of the US GDP in the first quarter and the significant decline in residents' PCE income and consumption in May, the financial market began to optimistically revise its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market expects the number of interest - rate cuts in 2025 to increase to 3 times, with a cut range of about 50 - 75bp. The expected interest - rate cut times are in September, October, and December. The probability of an interest - rate cut in July rebounded to 18%, and the probability in September increased significantly. The terminal interest rate after the interest - rate cuts within the year is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75% [61][65] 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium in the past month was 3.41%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous month, at the 71.3% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.45%, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous month, at the 29.3% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low neutral level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 77.4%, 68.4%, 75.8%, and 59.1% quantiles of the past five years respectively, with relatively high valuation levels. The valuation quantiles changed by 8.8%, 14.9%, - 0.7%, and - 4.6% respectively compared to the previous month, indicating a marginal slight increase in the attractiveness of small - cap stocks and a marginal significant decrease in the attractiveness of large - cap stocks [68][73] - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market is in a period of seasonal oscillatory rise and structural differentiation in July. Growth stocks are relatively dominant in style, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. Generally, the stock market tends to rise in July. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM during corrections, short - term trading on IF and IH after sharp rises, and medium - term long - term trading on IF and IH after sharp declines [76]