Zheng Xin Qi Huo

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向下有政策托市,向上缺乏明显驱动
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:46
向下有政策托市 向上缺乏明显驱动 正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-16 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重小幅下降、标肥价差明显走低、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | | | | 近期,上市猪企5月销售数据陆续出炉。从21家上市猪企的出栏量来看,13家企业环比下降,合计减 | | | 供应 | 少超30万头。这也是2025年以来,上市猪企合计出栏量连续2个月环比下降。不过同比来看,仍以增 | 偏空 | | | 量为主。5月下旬以来,多家头部猪企都接到了相关部门通知,要求降低出栏体重,因此6月或提升 | | | | 出栏量以降低出栏均重。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅上升,屠宰利润小幅上升,鲜效率持续下降,冻品库存小幅上升处于近4年历史同 期低位。 | | | | 6月11日中央储备库进行今年以来首次真正意义的国产冻猪肉收储,此前5次收储都属于等量轮储, | | | 需求 | 此次承储企业需在8月10日前保质保量完成入库。此次启动猪肉收储与前期限制母猪产能扩张、降低 | 偏多 | | | ...
豆粕周报:美国生柴政策利好,美豆及连粕震荡走高-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:45
Report Overview - Report Title: "US Biodiesel Policy Benefits, US Soybeans and Dalian Soybean Meal Fluctuate Higher" [1] - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Report Author: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Group [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The June USDA report had a neutral impact, but the biodiesel policy stimulated short - term US soybeans to fluctuate strongly. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, and the spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose. Currently, downstream提货 is strong, and the spot shows fluctuations. In the fourth quarter, as oil mills start procurement, the rising Brazilian soybean premium will push up the import cost of Dalian soybean meal. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, which supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, continue to buy soybean meal 09 at low prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report was neutral, with no adjustments to new - crop US soybeans and old - crop South American soybeans. The market focused on US soybean exports and new - crop growth. Last week, US soybean export net sales were 11.9 tons, in line with expectations but down significantly from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - producing areas put pressure on US soybeans. However, the US biodiesel policy increased the blending volume in the next two years, boosting US soybeans [6]. - In China, 13.92 million tons of soybeans were imported in May. The large arrival of soybeans supported the oil mills' operating rate to return to normal, resulting in a loose spot supply of soybean meal. Meanwhile, strong downstream transactions and pick - ups supported the spot price. Oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories entered an accumulation cycle, with soybean inventory at 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, and soybean meal inventory at 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 13, CBOT soybeans closed at 1068.50 cents per bushel, up 10.50 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.99%. M2509 soybean meal closed at 3041 yuan per ton, up 31 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.03% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and slightly higher temperatures in US soybean - producing areas. As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations; the planting rate was 90%, lower than the expected 91% [13][21]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 61,000 tons, down from 194,000 tons in the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 58,000 tons, up from 4,000 tons in the previous week [13][25]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of June 12, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 95%, up from 91% last week [13][28]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in June 2025 are 14.08 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [34]. Supply - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), a total of 39 ships, about 2.535 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][37]. Demand - In the 24th week (June 7 - 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than the estimate. In the same week, soybean meal transactions increased to 1.7385 million tons, and pick - ups increased to 973,800 tons [13][42]. Inventory - In the 23rd week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.70% increase. The soybean meal inventory increased to 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week, a 28.36% increase [13][45]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking items such as soybean meal basis (Jiangsu), oil - meal ratio, soybean meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][50][53].
碳酸锂周报20250616:多空存分歧,碳酸锂窄幅震荡-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 656 tons week - on - week to 18,100 tons. There is an incremental expectation for non - integrated supply in June due to the reduction in lithium ore costs. In May, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 38%. The domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,117 tons week - on - week to 133,500 tons, with smelters and other sectors having a slight inventory build - up, and the overall inventory remaining at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still large [5][6]. - In June, downstream demand was basically flat month - on - month. The production schedule of the power sector declined, while there was a certain behavior of rush - exporting for energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. In May, the sales volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.9% [6]. - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate was basically flat week - on - week, while the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 3.4% week - on - week. Overseas mines had a strong sentiment of price support, but downstream lithium salt plants had low willingness to take delivery [6]. - Considering the decrease in imported lithium carbonate, it is expected that the supply and demand will be in a tight balance or there will be a slight inventory reduction in June, but the medium - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. The high inventory exerts a certain suppression on lithium prices, but further downward movement is likely to trigger supply disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the trends at the mine end [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Side - **Lithium Spodumene Import Volume in April Increased Slightly Month - on - Month**: From January to April, China imported 2.315 million tons of lithium spodumene. In April, the import volume was 622,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 1.179 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 50.9%; 343,000 tons from South Africa, accounting for 14.3%; and 315,000 tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 13.6% [10]. - **The Decline of Lithium Concentrate Slowed Down**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate was basically flat week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 3.4% week - on - week. Overseas mines on the spodumene side had a strong sentiment of price support, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Some traders were eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [13]. - **Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production in June May Slightly Increase Month - on - Month**: In May, the total production of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 2% month - on - month and increased by 15% year - on - year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month - on - month respectively, while the production from lepidolite and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month - on - month respectively. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production will slightly increase month - on - month in June as the profitability of subcontractors has recovered and the production of the salt - lake sector has increased with the warming weather [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate Import Volume and Its Changes**: From January to April, China imported 78,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, in May, the scale of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [20]. - **Spot Prices Were Basically Flat Week - on - Week**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan per ton, basically flat week - on - week. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt plants were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan per ton, also basically flat week - on - week [21]. Demand Side - **The Global New - Energy Vehicle Market Started Well**: The new - energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. In the first quarter of 2025, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 4.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Among them, the sales volume in Europe was 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 22%; in North America, 500,000, a year - on - year increase of 16%; and in China, 2.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The markets in China and Europe had strong growth, while the growth rate in the United States declined due to political factors [26]. - **The Production of Power Batteries Maintained a High Growth Rate**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. From January to April, the cumulative production was 444.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 67.1%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.7%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of power batteries was 303.9 GWh, accounting for 75.2% of the total sales volume, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.8%; the cumulative sales volume of other batteries was 100.0 GWh, accounting for 24.8% of the total sales volume, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 157.8% [36]. - **The Year - on - Year Increase of Domestic Mobile Phone Shipments Was Slight**: In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment volume of the domestic smartphone market was 71.6 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production volume of electronic computer units in the first quarter was 85.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, showing positive growth for two consecutive quarters, which was driven by the upgrading of the entire industrial chain under the impetus of technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [41]. - **The Energy - Storage Installation in May Maintained a High Growth Rate**: According to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink, in May this year, the newly commissioned installed capacity of new - energy storage projects in China totaled 6.32 GW/15.85 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 193%/228%. The "531" rush - installation contributed a certain increment. The joint release of the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New - Energy Storage" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration clarified that "new - energy projects should not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of the compulsory energy - storage installation, the energy - storage installation ratio will decrease, which may affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [46]. - **The Downstream Production Schedule in June Increased Slightly Month - on - Month**: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton compared with last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand in June may increase slightly month - on - month. The production schedule at the power end declined, and there was a certain behavior of rush - exporting for energy - storage cells [52]. Other Indicators - **The Cost of Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Was Inverted**: Recently, as the price of lithium concentrate stabilized, the production cost of lithium salt plants increased slightly. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 70,242 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 779 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene have fallen into losses. The theoretical production profit was - 9,442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 679 yuan per ton [49]. - **The Basis Widened This Week**: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was 710, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate was 59,940 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract widened. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week, at 1,600 yuan per ton [55]. - **The Spread Between Contracts Narrowed**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - month and near - month contracts was negative. The spread between the first - month and near - month contracts was - 40, an increase of 340 compared with last week, and the spreads between different contracts narrowed [59].
正信期货棕榈油周报20250616:美生柴及地缘扰动再起,油脂板块整体转强-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:41
上周CBOT豆油涨停收官;内盘三大油脂先抑后扬,均创逾一个半月高点。 PPT模板:www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材:www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景:www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表:www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载:www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程: www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载:www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载:www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载:www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载:www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛:www.1ppt.cn PPT课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/yin gyu/ 美术课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/meis hu/ 科学课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/kex ...
6月USDA影响偏多,短期郑棉仍处震荡
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. The June USDA report had a bullish impact on the market as it lowered the expected harvested area and yield per unit of US cotton, reducing the expected production to 14 million bales and the ending stocks by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. However, the net sales of US cotton exports last week were only 96,300 bales, a significant decrease from the previous week. Coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US cotton - growing regions recently, US cotton prices were under pressure. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, US cotton prices fluctuated weakly [6]. - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory was continuously being depleted, and the import of cotton was relatively low. Meanwhile, the downstream demand was in the off - season. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, there was little improvement in cotton prices. Currently, the sowing of new - season cotton in Xinjiang was completed, and the weather in the growing regions was normal, with cotton growing well. - Strategy: With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices will continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the sowing of new cotton is completed, and the weather in the growing regions is favorable. At the same time, the commercial inventory is continuously being depleted, and cotton imports are relatively low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, cotton prices will basically remain stable. Waiting for new market guidance, Zhengzhou cotton futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 13, the ICE US cotton 07 contract closed at 67.90 cents per pound, down 0.424 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.35%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, up 135 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.01% [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton Sowing**: As of the week of June 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 49%, the same as the previous week, compared with 56% in the same period last year. The planting rate was 76%, up from 66% the previous week, compared with 79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The squaring rate was 12%, up from 8% the previous week, compared with 13% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 12% [12][16]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton exports were 60,000 bales, down from 110,000 bales the previous week; the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 36,000 bales, down from 39,000 bales the previous week [12][20]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. The operating rate of spinning mills decreased significantly. Spinning mills had limited orders, with the operating rate of small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas dropping to 50% - 60%, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills remained stable at 80% - 90% [12][23]. - **Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of the week of June 12, the inventory of cotton in mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.3 days of consumption. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The operating rate of downstream fabric mills decreased significantly, and raw material procurement slowed down. The raw material inventory of spinning mills showed an accumulating trend, with the inventory of some large mills in Xinjiang being about 35 - 40 days, and that of inland enterprises being about 15 - 25 days [12][27]. - **Domestic Cotton Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.098 million tons, a decrease of 111,200 tons (a decline of 3.47%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 2.2064 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,600 tons (a decline of 4.19%), and the commercial cotton inventory in the inland areas was 448,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.19% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 443,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentioned the tracking of cotton basis, 9 - 1 spread of cotton, cotton - yarn spread, and domestic - foreign cotton spread, but did not provide specific data [34][35].
正信期货鸡蛋周报2025-6-16:现货反弹为时尚早-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:35
正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格持续下降, 淘鸡日龄持续下降,大小码价差小幅上升,鸡苗价格持 | 偏空 | | | 续下降。 | | | | 近十年统计结果显示,有6次梅雨季现货价格低点出现在7月上旬,3次出现在6月下旬,所以6-7 | | | | 月出现低点的概率较大。通常7-8月现货出现上涨,主要因为梅雨季淘鸡加速、高温天气导致产 | | | | 蛋率下降、中秋节前备货需求增加的影响。但目前淘鸡相对蛋价处于历史同期高位,7月20日入 | | | | 伏之前产蛋率也不会快速下滑,节前备货还未到启动的时候,所以季节性反弹还为时尚早。 | | | 需求 | 本周主销区销量小幅下降,主产区发货量基本持平,流通库存和生产环节库存小幅上升。 | 偏空 | | | 根据气象部门最新预测,今年南方梅雨季节时间长、降雨量大,鸡蛋质量面临较大挑战,或导致 | | | | 今年6月份需求低于往年同期。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走低,明显低于综合成本,处于近4年同期最低水平。 蛋鸡行业经过连 ...
纸浆:下游需求改善不佳,浆价弱势运行为主
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The port inventory of pulp shows a cumulative trend, the supply pressure continues to intensify, the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, the pulp consumption in the base paper market fails to effectively recover, paper mills mainly digest raw material inventories, and the operating rate remains at a low level. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5110 - 5290 this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the market price of pulp spot was narrowly sorted. The prices of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp in Shandong area generally declined, with coniferous pulp silver star, kelip, and beimu down 0.81%, 0.80%, and 0.78% respectively; broad - leaf pulp goldfish, alpine down 0.49% and 1.20% respectively. The prices of natural color pulp and bamboo pulp also decreased slightly, with natural color pulp Venus down 2.91% and southwest bamboo pulp down 3.19% [8][11]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 first rose and then fell last week, closing at 5198 yuan/ton, down 0.50% for the week, with weighted trading volume and open interest increasing [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than the futures price, the basis discount continued to narrow slightly, with a discount of 858 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton narrower than last week [18]. - **Log Futures Price Review**: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a wide - range shock last week, closing at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.13% week - on - week, with trading volume increasing and open interest decreasing [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%. It is expected that the domestic broad - leaf pulp production will be about 21.2 tons and the chemimechanical pulp production will be about 19.8 tons this week [4][22]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Last week, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.5%, a week - on - week increase of 3.6%; the domestic chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In May 2025, the domestic pulp production was 199.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%; the wood pulp production was 165.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [29]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization Rate**: In May 2025, the domestic broad - leaf pulp capacity utilization rate was 77.9%, a month - on - month increase of 8.68%; the chemimechanical pulp capacity utilization rate was 84.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit**: In May 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 660.9 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.77%; the production profit of chemimechanical pulp was - 418 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 192.55 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 301.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% and a year - on - year increase of 6.95%; the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 1555 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6% [39]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the offset paper production was 20.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [43]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the whiteboard paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, the white cardboard remained flat, the corrugated paper production capacity utilization rate continued to rise, and the boxboard paper decreased [46][49]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the tissue paper price remained stable, the cultural paper decreased slightly, the whiteboard paper decreased slightly, the white cardboard remained stable, the boxboard paper remained stable, and the corrugated paper decreased slightly [50][53][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization Rate**: In May 2025, the tissue paper and white cardboard capacity utilization rates decreased month - on - month, the offset paper slightly increased, the copperplate paper decreased, and the domestic pulp actual consumption slightly decreased [60][63][66]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the domestic port inventory showed a cumulative trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 218.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Among them, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port continued to accumulate inventory, and Tianjin Port reduced inventory [67][69]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 24.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong area increased slightly [71].
煤焦周度报告20250616:供应端有所缩减,盘面下跌节奏放缓-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:34
供应端有所缩减,盘面下跌节奏放缓 煤焦周度报告 20250616 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员:杨辉 投资咨询证号:Z0019319 Email:yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面略有反弹,短期下跌节奏放缓;现货暂稳,仍有第四轮降价预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工下滑,供应端略有收紧 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑,钢厂控制原料到货;投机情绪偏弱,出口利润维持正值,建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库,总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩,焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水,9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周中美和谈带来市场情绪短暂改善,周初双焦小幅反弹,但和谈未有超预期协议达成,加之美方对钢制家电加征关税,而钢材需求也进一步走弱,盘 面反弹乏力再度走弱,整体震荡走势。截至周五收盘,焦炭09合约跌0.44%至1349.5,焦煤09合约跌0.58%至774.5。焦炭方面,受环保、检 ...
现货走强后偏弱调整,期货或重回震荡区
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Spot peanuts are expected to maintain a high - level and slightly weak adjustment in the short term, and the futures price may return to the oscillation area. The strategy should mainly treat it as range - bound. Pay attention to the price performance at both ends of the 8000 - 8500 range for the 10 - contract [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Main View - This week, peanut prices in various producing areas reached a high and then slightly declined. Traders in Henan and Northeast China were cautious in high - price purchases, and the trading volume was light. The domestic market demand was flat, and the consumption progress of goods was slow. The arrival volume of imported peanuts decreased significantly compared with the same period. Oil mills were in the process of ending purchases, and the peanut oil market would end steadily. Domestic demand has not recovered, and there is a lack of trading volume to support price increases. However, due to the decreasing supply at the grass - roots level in producing areas and low inventory levels, prices are also difficult to fall sharply in the short term [6]. 2. Market Review - **2.1 This month**: The peanut weighted index briefly broke through the range, but the buyer's power was weak, and attention should be paid to the trading volume when the price pulls back. The price of the oilseed sector remained in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the direction of the breakthrough [8]. - **2.2 2510 contract**: The upward price increase of the 10 - main contract slowed down, and attention should be paid to the price pull - back situation [11]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Oil mill inventory and operating rate**: The weekly inventory of peanut oil was 40,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of oil mills was 8.42%, a decrease of about 3.1% compared with the previous week [14]. - **3.2 Peanut general price (Baisha)**: The prices in the main producing areas of Northeast and Henan continued to be strong and then slowed down in their upward trend [18]. - **3.3 Peanut oil price trend**: The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week was 14,950 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [21]. - **3.4 Peanut meal price trend**: The price of peanut meal was weakly oscillating this week, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal were oscillating upwards [25]. - **3.5 Imported peanut quantity and price**: There were few imported peanuts. The supply of Sudanese refined peanuts was limited, and no new peanuts had arrived at the port. The import price was rising strongly. The procurement of Senegalese peanuts was limited [29]. - **3.6 Market price index compared with last month**: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price was mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price was relatively stable [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - **4.1 Basis spread**: No specific analysis content was provided, only the data range of the basis spread was given [35].
碳酸锂周报:成本支撑减弱,锂价弱势震荡-20250609
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons week-on-week to 17,471 tons, with an increase in lithium spodumene production. Due to the reduction in lithium ore costs, there is an expectation of an increase in non-integrated supply in June. In May, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 0.97 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 38%. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 861 tons week-on-week to 132,400 tons, with inventory in smelters, downstream, and other sectors at 57,100 tons, 41,100 tons, and 34,200 tons respectively. Smelters and other sectors had a slight inventory build-up, and the overall inventory is at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years remains significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, downstream demand in June is basically flat month-on-month, with a decline in production scheduling in the power sector and some rush-to-export behavior in energy storage cells. The terminal market maintains a relatively fast growth rate. From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 726,000 units, with a retail penetration rate of 53.5% [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.7% week-on-week, and the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.8% week-on-week. The decline in lithium ore prices has slowed down. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to support prices, while some traders are eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [5]. - Strategy: After lithium prices fell to a low level, supply disruptions increased, but they are not enough to reverse the oversupply situation. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. High inventory exerts some pressure on lithium prices, but further downward movement is likely to trigger supply disruptions. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the ore end and downstream production scheduling [5]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports in April increased slightly month-on-month**: From January to April, China imported 2.315 million tons of lithium spodumene. In April, China imported 622,900 tons of lithium spodumene, a month-on-month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 1.179 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 50.9%; 343,000 tons from South Africa, accounting for 14.3%; and 315,000 tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 13.6% [9]. - **The decline in lithium concentrate prices has slowed down**: This week, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.7% week-on-week, and the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines on the lithium spodumene side have a strong sentiment to support prices, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Some traders are eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [12]. - **China's lithium carbonate production in June may increase slightly month-on-month**: According to SMM, the total production of lithium carbonate in May decreased by 2% month-on-month and increased by 15% year-on-year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month-on-month respectively, while the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month-on-month respectively. According to research, the profitability of subcontractors has improved, and the production of the salt lake side has increased with the warming of the weather. It is expected that China's lithium carbonate production will increase slightly month-on-month in June [16]. - **Lithium carbonate imports**: From January to April, China imported 78,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons from Argentina, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, the scale of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in May was 9,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [20]. - **Spot prices decreased month-on-month**: This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8%. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt factories were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This week, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 58,600 yuan per ton, a slight decrease from last week [21]. Demand Side - **The global new energy vehicle market started well**: The new energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. According to Rho Motion, in Q1 2025, global electric vehicle sales reached 4.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Among them, sales in Europe in Q1 were 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22%; sales in North America were 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%; and sales in China were 2.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The Chinese and European markets showed strong growth, while the growth rate in the US declined due to political factors [26]. - **The production of power batteries maintained a relatively high growth rate**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 0.03% and a year-on-year increase of 49.0%. From January to April, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 444.6 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 67.1%. From January to April, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China were 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 73.7%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 303.9 GWh, accounting for 75.2% of the total sales, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 56.8%; the cumulative sales of other batteries were 100.0 GWh, accounting for 24.8% of the total sales, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 157.8% [36]. - **China's mobile phone shipments increased slightly year-on-year**: In the first quarter of 2025, the shipments of China's smartphone market were 71.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production of electronic computer complete machines in China's first quarter was 85.322 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Behind this data is the upgrading of the entire industry chain driven by technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [41]. - **The mandatory energy storage allocation for new energy was cancelled**: In February, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 1.24 GW/2.89 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 153.5%. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to grow at a high speed year-on-year, with the total scale of energy storage systems and EPC reaching 4.6 GW/14.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49% in capacity scale. The "531" rush to install contributed a certain increment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New Energy Storage", clearly stating that "new energy projects shall not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, the energy storage allocation ratio will decrease, which may affect the annual demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [45]. - **Downstream production scheduling in June remained stable month-on-month**: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,470 yuan per ton, an increase of 240 yuan per ton from last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month-on-month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand in June was basically flat month-on-month, with a decline in production scheduling in the power sector and some rush-to-export behavior in energy storage cells [51]. Other Indicators - **Non-integrated lithium salt factories are operating at a loss**: Recently, with a slight decline in the price of lithium concentrate, the production cost of lithium salt factories has slightly decreased. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene is 69,464 yuan per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1,867 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene have fallen into a loss. The theoretical production profit of manufacturers processing with purchased lithium spodumene is -8,764 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,267 yuan per ton [48]. - **The basis has narrowed this week**: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -240, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This week, the closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate was 60,440 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract has narrowed. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat month-on-month, with a price difference of 1,600 yuan per ton [54]. - **The price difference between contracts has widened**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the price difference between the first continuous contract and the near-month contract was negative. The price difference between the first continuous contract and the near-month contract was -40, the same as last week, and the price differences between different contracts have widened [57].