1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the urea industry is neutral, with various aspects such as supply, demand, policy, etc., also rated as neutral, indicating a balanced outlook in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, summer maintenance is recovering, and production has stabilized, being higher than the historical average. Although the Indian tender price is high, China has not participated. The compound fertilizer operating rate has slightly declined, the progress of autumn fertilizer is slow, and industrial demand is tepid. Overall, short - term domestic supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3]. - The current monthly spread is low, and opportunities for the spread to strengthen can be considered when it is at a low level [3]. - There is no news of further liberalization of exports for now [3]. - Supply has stabilized while demand remains weak. Traders are adopting a wait - and - see attitude, spot trading is weak, and prices are falling, but the situation of low - price orders has improved recently [3]. - Enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Some enterprises have reduced their order - receiving prices under pressure [3]. - International prices remain high, and potential export profits are still at an absolute high. India's tender price exceeds $530 per ton, but China has not directly participated, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policy changes [3]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer in compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, and the operating rate has begun to decline. Attention should be paid to the growth progress of autumn fertilizer demand in September. The price of melamine has rebounded significantly, but demand is still significantly weak, and the sustainability of the price increase remains to be observed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - This week, the supply - demand situation of urea remained relatively loose. Some enterprises completed maintenance, and production stabilized. Supply was significantly higher than the same period last year, agricultural demand decreased significantly, the compound fertilizer operating rate stopped increasing, and exports were not further liberalized. Indian tender prices were as high as $530 per ton, but China did not participate. Enterprise inventories increased again, forcing enterprises to lower prices. A few low - price enterprises saw an improvement in order - receiving, and the recent decline may be limited [10]. - Ammonium chloride prices remained stable, and the operating rate changed little recently. The demand side mainly executed previous orders. Affected by the weakening of urea prices, market purchasing power was weak, and most traders were waiting and watching [14]. - The ammonium sulfate market had few transactions, and the current supply - demand relationship was still relatively loose. The operating rate of the caprolactam plant increased to 93.48%. With the preliminary reduction of the Shanxi Yangmei plant, the subsequent operating rate may be slightly reduced. After several rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' product profits recovered, and the operating rate increased slightly. Overall, ammonium sulfate supply was slightly stronger [14]. - Current export profits continue to remain high, but there is still no news of new export quota releases, and potential export demand cannot be freely released [33]. Operating Rate - Coal - based profits are still good. The operating rate during summer maintenance remains relatively low but is still at a high level over the years. According to Longzhong Information statistics, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, some enterprises plan to stop production, and the overall operating rate will not change much [43]. Inventory - This week, enterprise inventories slightly increased. Domestic demand entered the off - season, and the compound fertilizer operating rate was also blocked from rising. Enterprises had relatively difficulty in receiving orders [54]. - This week, port inventories slightly decreased, with little change. Large - granular urea at Yantai Port left the port successively. There was a small amount of large - granular urea being shipped to Longkou Port, Jinzhou Port, and Rizhao Port, and small - granular urea was shipped to Longkou Port, Qinhuangdao Port, and Zhenjiang Port. Most ports had both departure and arrival of goods [54]. Profit - Coal prices have continued to rise slightly, increasing the cost of coal - based urea production [63]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea production has almost disappeared [78]. Export - Exports currently remain in the same state as before, with no news of further liberalization. After domestic prices weakened, potential export profits still remained extremely high. Although domestic supply and demand are relatively loose, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand caused by export policy changes [83]. Domestic Demand - Urea prices weakened, while phosphate and potash fertilizer prices were relatively firm. The overall cost of compound fertilizer changed little. The arrival of autumn wheat fertilizer in Henan and other places was slow, and it is expected to have large - scale shipments in September. Attention should be paid to changes in autumn fertilizer demand [94]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer sales was slow, and the output of compound fertilizer slightly decreased [97]. - The price of melamine rebounded significantly, mainly due to an increase in enterprise maintenance. The operating rate has decreased significantly recently. As of August 14, the melamine capacity utilization rate was around 44.25%, and some enterprises still have device maintenance plans from September to October. However, there are still no signs of substantial recovery on the demand side. The output of panel furniture is weak, and the demand for melamine impregnated paper grows slowly. The sustainability of the subsequent melamine price increase still depends on demand changes [108]. Raw Materials - Recently, coal demand has remained high, supply has slightly decreased, and prices have continued to rise slightly. Due to the increase in new energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the relatively high inventory of power plants, the upward space for coal prices remains to be observed [142]. - The supply - demand situation of synthetic ammonia has recently weakened significantly. After the completion of maintenance in the north, production has increased significantly again, while downstream demand remains tepid. Ammonia enterprises' inventory pressure has rapidly increased, and prices are under pressure to decline [151]. Futures and Basis - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than the historical average, and enterprises have a strong willingness to deliver goods [181]. Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, and surplus of urea from September 2024 to December 2025. In the recent period, the export volume of compound fertilizer has increased significantly, slightly increasing the demand for compound fertilizer [185][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel have changed relatively little, but the expectation of oversupply remains. Nickel prices are temporarily fluctuating in line with macro - sentiment. This week, the price of nickel ore has slightly declined, the arrival volume of nickel ore has increased, and domestic port inventories are showing a tendency to accumulate. On the smelting side, the production of refined nickel is running smoothly, the loss of ferronickel plants has narrowed, and the supply remains at a low level [3]. - In the short term, the supply of tin is relatively sufficient, and the market recovery is mainly supported by macro - news. The supply of nickel ore in the third quarter is expected to be relatively abundant, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may be weak. The price of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore has rebounded in the first half of August, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of NPI has continued to rise this week, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel sulfate remains tight [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: As of August 11, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content decreased by 0, 1, and 1 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week, reaching 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton. The domestic trade nickel ore prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively to 24.8 and 52.3 US dollars per wet ton as of August 8. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang decreased by 0.5 US dollars per wet ton to 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively last week. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan per nickel point to 919 yuan per nickel point as of August 11, a 0.55% increase [3][27]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. As of August 12, the LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 492 tons to 211,700 tons, a 0.23% increase. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,086 tons to 40,600 tons, a 2.75% increase [3][41]. - **Profitability**: As of August 12, the cash - cost production profit margin of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 percentage points to - 9.8% [3]. Tin - **Monthly Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly balance sheet for tin from January to December 2025, including data on total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, year - on - year supply and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year supply and consumption changes [4]. Refined Nickel - **Device Operation**: As of August 12, 2025, domestic electrolytic nickel plants in regions such as Gansu, Xinjiang, and Jilin are operating stably, while some plants in Zhejiang are operating at reduced loads or are temporarily shut down [36]. - **Production and Trade**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly exports decreased by 27.41% to 10,100 tons, and imports decreased by 3.0% to 17,000 tons [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 12, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 230 tons to 20,700 tons, a 1.10% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 492 tons to 211,700 tons, a 0.23% increase. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,086 tons to 40,600 tons, a 2.75% increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 70 US dollars per ton to 13,095 US dollars per ton, a 0.54% increase. The production profit margins of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 3.7 and 2.2 percentage points respectively to 2.3% and - 4.7% [46]. Nickel Sulfate - **Device Operation**: Nickel sulfate plants in regions such as Jilin, Gansu, and Guangdong are operating stably, while some plants in Guangxi, Tianjin, and Jiangxi are operating at reduced loads or are shut down [52][56]. - **Production and Trade**: As of July 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. As of June 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly imports decreased by 27.35% to 13,300 tons, and exports increased by 3.66% to 782.1 tons [55]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the spot cost of nickel salts has increased, and nickel salt plants are continuing to hold prices. As of August 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate decreased by 1.1, 0.9, 0.7, and 0.7 percentage points respectively to - 2.1%, - 5.2%, 3.3%, and - 3% [60]. Ferronickel - **Device Operation**: Ferronickel plants in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. As of July 31, the national main - region ferronickel inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons, a 0.55% increase [70][76]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 12, the cash - cost production profit margin of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 percentage points to - 9.8% [76]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the stainless - steel futures main contract ss2509 increased by 1.13%. As of August 12, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi increased by 250 yuan per ton to 13,250 yuan per ton, a 1.92% increase [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 1.1063 million tons, a 0.44% decrease. As of August 12, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,075 tons to 103,900 tons, a 1.05% increase [82]. - **Production and Trade**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.59% to 3.2298 million tons. As of June 2025, China's stainless - steel monthly imports decreased by 12.48% to 109,500 tons, and exports decreased by 10.63% to 390,000 tons [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 22 yuan per ton to 13,026 yuan per ton, a 0.16% decrease. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 2.02 percentage points to - 1.46% [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the palm oil industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The under - expected palm oil production in both Malaysia and Indonesia has supported the price increase of palm oil, but attention should be paid to whether the export demand can sustain the current price [4] - As of August 8, 2025, South American soybean prices strengthened on a weekly basis, while those in the US Gulf were weak, and rapeseed prices in many regions declined [7] - As of August 8, 2025, Argentine soybean oil prices dropped by over $50/ton on a weekly basis, and US Gulf soybean oil prices fell by $41/ton, while Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices rose slightly [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side Information - In July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month to 1.812417 million tons, lower than the institutional estimate of 1.83 million tons. Exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons, higher than the estimate of 1.3 million tons. End - of - July inventory reached 2.11 million tons, lower than the estimate of 2.23 - 2.25 million tons [3] - In July, rainfall in many parts of Malaysia was lower than normal, and the oil extraction rate of palm fruit decreased instead of increasing [3] Price Information - The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $10/ton, compared with $51.5/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $124.4/ton [19] - The price difference between Indian port soybean oil and crude palm oil was $28/ton, lower than $67/ton the previous week. The price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $18/ton, compared with $115/ton the previous week. The price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $23/ton, compared with $54/ton the previous week [24] Purchase and Demand Information - There were no reports of palm oil purchases last week [26] - Last week, domestic buyers purchased 3000 tons each of Dubai rapeseed oil for the October/November shipment, and there were rumors that domestic oil mills purchased rapeseed for the September shipment [33] - Last week, far - month soybean oil transactions remained high, especially against the backdrop of domestic non - procurement of US soybeans [127] Profit and Margin Information - Subsidies decreased, and processing and blending losses increased [120] - European RME prices weakened, but European rapeseed oil prices declined more, and RME processing profit remained at the average level [123] - Palm oil and rapeseed oil basis were stable, while soybean oil basis weakened again [131] Balance Sheet Information - The report provides monthly balance sheets for various oils, including overall oils, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, covering data from 2024 to 2025, showing information on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, end - inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [146]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore has recovered, the demand remains high, and although the downstream profits have weakened slightly, they are still at a high level. Iron ore may continue to fluctuate. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short - term, and the basis of the 09 contract has declined slightly with a weaker basis rate. The short - term demand for iron ore still shows resilience, and the inventory has increased overall. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbuba powder has declined; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores is stable. [5] 3.2 Weekly Review Supply - Globally, the shipping volume has declined again. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have weakened significantly, while the shipments from non - mainstream regions have stabilized and rebounded. The arrival volume has generally increased. According to Reuters, on August 4, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 5760 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Australia was 2235 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 2.05%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Brazil was 1408 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 40.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. [6][27] Demand - The iron water production has decreased slightly, with the 247 - sample daily average iron water production decreasing by 0.49 tons week - on - week to 240.32 tons, and the average daily iron water production in August being about 241 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased. The weekly production of five major steel products has slightly increased, the profit of finished products has slightly decreased, the demand for rebar has rebounded, and the consumption of hot - rolled coils has declined. [6][106][132] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 620 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ores is 65.48%. The total inventory of imported ores in steel mills has increased by 1.24 thousand tons, the on - site inventory has increased by 23.8 thousand tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventories has decreased by 22.7 thousand tons. The available days of imported ores have decreased by 1 day to 20 days. The inventory of rebar has slightly increased, the inventory of billets has continued to rise, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has rebounded. [6][150][159] Price - The spot trading volume of iron ore has increased slightly, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 09 contract is about 0.4%, the basis has decreased slightly, and the basis rate has weakened. The prices of various iron ore varieties have shown different trends, and the import profits of mainstream varieties have declined oscillatingly. [6][125][181] 3.3 Weather - The precipitation in Brazil is scarce, and the overall precipitation has increased slightly. [7][8] 3.4 Balance Sheet - According to the recent shipping and arrival situation of iron ore, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered. The total supply, consumption, surplus volume, and cumulative year - on - year changes of iron ore from September 2024 to December 2025 are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in August 2025, the total supply is 13167, the total consumption is 12261, and the surplus volume is 906. [186][187]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - Guinea's rainy season supports ore prices and alumina costs, but the oversupply in the fundamentals suppresses prices. Without a new round of strong policy stimulus, it is difficult for prices to break upward. Short - term sentiment - driven funds may support the futures price. In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core range of near - month contracts at 3050 - 3300 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Directory Spot - National spot prices are supported by futures and have stabilized. As of Monday this week, the average price of three networks in Shanxi was 3257 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 3238 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the average price of three networks in Guizhou increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions remained unchanged week - on - week [14]. - As of last Friday, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. After considering the small exchange - rate fluctuations, the cost of importing Western Australian alumina to northern ports in China was equivalent to 3356 yuan/ton [14]. - As of last Friday, the import profit and loss of alumina was - 103.05 yuan/ton. The Nanshan Bintan project in Indonesia started production in July, increasing overseas supply pressure. Alumina is expected to remain in a net - export state, but the volume has shrunk significantly [3][14]. Futures - Last week, the futures price of the main alumina contract first rose and then fell. The main alumina contract opened at 3162 yuan/ton last Monday and closed at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly change of - 1.92% and a volatility of 0.75%. The highest point during the week was 3253 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3130 yuan/ton [18]. - The futures market is shifting from structure C to structure B, and the far - month contract has formed a C - type structure [18]. Cost - In terms of costs, they are basically the same as last week, with the fully - taxed costs in various regions currently running at around 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [25]. - As of last Friday, the average CIF price of imported Guinea ore was 73.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the average CIF price of imported Australian ore was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also unchanged week - on - week. The rainy season in Guinea supports the CAPE - type shipping fee at around 23 US dollars/ton, making it difficult for ore prices to fall in the short term [25]. - In the caustic soda market, the supply of caustic soda has increased, but the price of 50% caustic soda has rebounded, driving the 32% caustic soda price to stabilize temporarily. The caustic soda price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25]. Supply - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.851 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.22%. The operating capacity of alumina was 95.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons or 0.63%. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a record high, exceeding 95 million tons for the first time. Coupled with a sharp decrease in net exports, the weekly surplus has been rising [3][32]. - There is a new production - capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has room to reach a new historical peak [32]. Inventory - Alumina has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and has fallen within the historical range for two consecutive weeks. As of last Friday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of on - site, in - transit, raw - material, and port inventories) according to the Steel Union's statistics was 4.144 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.062 million tons, with the inventory - accumulation rate being the highest in the past month [3][37]. - Special attention should be paid to the on - site inventory of alumina plants. It was previously predicted that the tightness of the spot market was easing, and there was an upward trend in the on - site inventory of alumina plants. Although the current on - site inventory is still at a historical low, the loosening of spot prices indicates that the tightness of the spot market is still easing [37]. - According to both the Steel Union and ALD data, the raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has been decreasing continuously, indicating that the tightness of downstream demand has eased [37]. - However, in the current market, the bearish fundamental data should be viewed dialectically. Neither the increasing inventory - accumulation rate nor the continuously record - high operating capacity can be the sole basis for judging the market. In the short term, capital movements are the main factor [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Outlook**: Short - term outlook is bearish. In the first half of July, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil exceeded expectations, putting pressure on raw sugar. The profit margin for out - of - quota imports in China has been opened, and the arrival of imported sugar accelerated from July to August, pushing the reverse spread to the expected level. Attention should be paid to the positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets. The market is in a bottom - seeking process in the medium term [3]. - **Foreign Production**: The outlook for foreign production is bearish. The production of the 2025/2026 sugar season in Brazil is basically set at 41 million tons; the production in India in the 2024/2025 season was lower than expected, but there is an expected increase to 35 million tons in the 2025/2026 season; Thailand maintains a slight increase in production [3]. - **Domestic Production and Sales**: The domestic production and sales situation is bullish. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar production in China was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 8.9 million tons [3]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit situation is bearish. The profit margin for out - of - quota imports has been opened, and imports have increased since May. The imports are expected to peak in August and decline in September [3]. - **Overall Inventory**: The overall inventory situation is neutral - bullish. The national industrial inventory in June was 2.26 million tons, at a low level compared to the same period [3]. - **Ethanol - Gasoline Ratio**: The ethanol - gasoline ratio situation is neutral - bullish. The ethanol - gasoline ratio has slightly risen to 0.6768, with ethanol having a slight advantage and approaching the equilibrium point [3]. - **Raw - Refined Sugar Spread**: The raw - refined sugar spread is neutral. The raw - refined sugar spread is at $113 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Brazil Sugar Production Data - **July First - half Data**: In the first half of July, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.411 million tons or 14.77%; the sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 446,000 tons or 15.07%. The cumulative crushing volume was 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.217 million tons or 9.61%; the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.591 million tons or 9.22% [11]. - **Production Forecast**: IBGE forecasts that Brazil's sugarcane planting area in 2025 will be 9.1685 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% decrease from 2024; the production is estimated to be 693 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 1.9% decrease from 2024. StoneX predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/2026 sugar season will be reduced to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May prediction [16]. Brazil Ethanol Production - In the 2025/2026 sugar season as of the first half of July, the ethanol production was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 51 million liters or 2.36%. The cumulative ethanol production was 11.62 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.587 billion liters or 12.02%. The historically low ethanol production ratio and low inventory will continue to drive the convergence of the ethanol - to - sugar price and the sugar price, and the room for further reduction of the ethanol production ratio is very limited [19]. Brazil Sugar Export - As of the week ending July 30, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.5178 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 177,800 tons or 5%. Brazil entered the high - export window, and the sugar export volume in July 2024 was 3.7823 million tons [30]. Domestic Sugar Market - **Price Trend**: Although the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, the domestic spot price has been supported by the inventory structure and has only fluctuated in a narrow range in the first half of the year, but it has loosened under the impact of imported sugar. The domestic spot price has slightly declined, but the basis remains strong [49][65]. - **Import Situation**: The out - of - quota import window has been opened since late April, and the arrival of imported sugar has increased since May. It is expected that the domestic imports will reach 750,000 - 800,000 tons in July and slow down in August. The large - scale import of sugar may drive the implementation of the positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets [57]. - **Market Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has shifted to a reverse spread as expected with the increase in imported sugar, and the spread is expected to be near the end. In the future, attention should be paid to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets. From a unilateral perspective, the valuation range of raw sugar is clearer. The current price reflects the global high - yield expectation, suppressing the raw sugar price in the short term [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply has weakened again and demand has declined slightly, but downstream profits remain good. Before the downward trend in demand is established, iron ore may continue to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend [5]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has increased slightly; the premiums of mainstream medium and low-grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has increased [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - Reuters: On August 4, 2025, the 7-day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 3,881 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Australia was 2,243 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. The 7-day moving average shipping volume of Brazil was 943.1 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.96% [31]. - Steel Union: Global shipments decreased slightly last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports increased by 266.5 thousand tons [58][97]. - Domestic ore: The total output of domestic ore continued to increase [103]. Demand - Steel mills: The profitability rate of steel mills continued to increase, and the molten iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,200 tons [107]. - Port clearance: The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports last week was 302,710 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,440 tons [118]. - Transactions: The spot trading volume of iron ore declined from a high level, and the trading volume of forward contracts increased significantly [123]. - Consumption: The weekly output of the five major steel products was stable, the profits of finished products weakened, the demand for rebar decreased slightly, and the consumption of hot-rolled coils increased [128]. Inventory - Ports: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 1.4 million tons, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.35%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period [144]. - Steel mills: The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 1.269 million tons, the inventory in factories decreased by 460,000 tons, and the inventory in sea - floating and ports increased by 1.73 million tons. The available days of imported ore remained at 21 days [153]. Price - Spot: The spot trading volume of iron ore decreased, and the trading volume of forward contracts continued to increase. The basis rate of the 09 contract was about 0.6%, with a small change in the basis, close to parity, and a relatively low basis rate [9]. - Futures: The prices of futures and spot increased slightly, the basis was weak, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was volatile and strong [158]. - Premium: The premiums of mainstream medium and low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores increased [166]. - Sea - floating cost: The cost of mainstream powders decreased [172]. - Import profit: The import profits of mainstream varieties were volatile and strong [175]. - August MA index average: The average value of the MA index in July was 100, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 791 [7]. Balance Sheet - According to the recent iron ore shipment and arrival situation, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered [180].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short-term: NR is rated neutral, while RU is rated slightly bullish [4] - Medium to long-term: RU is rated slightly bearish, and NR is rated slightly bearish [4] - RU9-1 spread: Slightly bearish [4] - RU-NR spread: Neutral [4] - Production area weather: Neutral [4] - Thai supply: Neutral [4] - Domestic supply: Slightly bullish [4] - Tires: Neutral [4] - Dairy products: Neutral [4] - Social inventory: RU is slightly bullish, and NR is slightly bullish [4] - Futures inventory: RU is neutral, and NR is neutral [4] - Non-standard spread: Slightly bearish [4] Core Views - As of August 5, RU and NR prices declined; the RU-NR spread first narrowed and then widened; the spreads of RU09-01, NR continuous one - continuous two, and continuous two - continuous three widened [4] - RU: Spot offers adjusted downward following the market, with prices falling from highs (bearish). Continuous rainfall in domestic main production areas disrupted tapping operations, supporting rubber prices (bullish). Light-colored rubber inventories continued to decline (bullish). It is expected that RU prices will fluctuate with an upward bias this week [4] - NR: In Southeast Asian main production areas, local heavy rainfall limited raw material output, supporting the stabilization of latex prices (bullish). Exports of all-steel and semi-steel tires decreased (bearish), and the operating rate dropped significantly (bearish). End-of-month shipments led to a decline in finished product inventories. It is predicted that NR prices will fluctuate widely this week [4] Summary by Related Catalogs New Energy Vehicle Development and Tire Demand - By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles. By 2025, new energy vehicle sales will account for 20% of total new vehicle sales. The production and sales of new energy passenger and commercial vehicles will increase rapidly, with the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles rising from 8% to 18%, boosting tire matching demand [7] - Semi-steel tires: Benefit from the booming new energy vehicle sales and policy incentives (such as trade-ins), with good matching demand. All-steel tires: Mainly constrained by factors such as the sluggish real estate market, with long-term pressured demand. The replacement demand from 2020 - 2021 remains to be released [16] Inventory Status - As of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.35%. Bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40%; general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.47% [29] - The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.66%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01%, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85% [29] - In previous years, inventory reduction started from April - May, but this year, inventory increased from June - July and only started to decline slightly recently [29] - As of August 3, the social inventory of light-colored rubber was 455,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.82%. The social inventory of dark-colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.12% [4] Tire Operating Rate - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' all-steel tires was 61.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 3.94% [43] - As of July 31, the operating rate of Chinese tire companies' semi-steel tires was 74.45%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.42%. Some enterprises scheduled maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall operating rate. End-of-month shipments led to lower finished product inventories [45] Production Area Conditions - Precipitation was concentrated in Northeast China, with a minor impact. Attention should be paid to the situation after the ceasefire of the Thailand-Cambodia conflict [57] - In the Vietnamese production area, there was still local rainfall interference, but overall output showed a seasonal increase. In July 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports were 206,200 tons, an increase of 62,300 tons month-on-month, a 43.27% month-on-month increase, and a 10.82% year-on-year increase. From January - July, Vietnam's cumulative natural rubber exports were 903,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.95%. Tapping started in mid-April, and the peak production period is from July - November [65] - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions were normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, overseas main production areas would continue to increase supply, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons; among them, Thailand will increase by 1.2%, Indonesia will decrease by 9.8%, Malaysia will decrease by 4.2%, Vietnam will decrease by 1.3%, China will increase by 6%, India will increase by 5.6%, and other countries will increase by 3.5% [68] - In July, four typhoons landed in China, and the phased rainfall in the production areas affected the tapping rhythm. The China Meteorological Administration predicted that in August, 4 - 5 typhoons are expected to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, fewer than the normal period (5.6). 2 - 3 typhoons are expected to land or significantly affect China (2.3 landings in the normal period) [73] Price and Spread Conditions - As of August 5, the price of Shanghai Vietnam 3L was 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai state-owned whole milk was 14,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of Shanghai RSS3 was 19,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous week [93] - As of August 5, the RU-NR spread was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. With rainfall interference in Yunnan's main production area in China and the arrival of the peak production period in Southeast Asian main production areas, the spread is expected to continue to widen [4][106][107] - As of August 5, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract narrowed to -245 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the Thai mixed spot market, after the previous rubber price increase, arbitrage positions actively increased. During the period, the rubber price declined, and arbitrage positions were less willing to sell at low prices. The decline in the spot price was less than that of RU, and the basis narrowed month-on-month [123] - As of August 5, the RU09-01 spread was -915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The RU01-05 spread was -85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous one - continuous two spread was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. The NR continuous two - continuous three spread was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week [131]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Manganese Silicide: Core view - Neutral; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Bearish; Steel production - Bullish; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [3] - Ferrosilicon: Core view - Bearish; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Steel & Magnesium production - Neutral; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [4] Core Views - Manganese Silicide: This week, the market fluctuated after a rally. Supply increased, demand from the steel industry improved slightly, and the overall cost rose. The spot market had average trading volume, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts continued to decline [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The market fluctuated this week. The spot trading atmosphere was poor. Supply increased and was still in the process of resuming production. Demand from the steel industry increased slightly, while the production of magnesium decreased, and export volume remained weak. The cost was expected to rise in the long - term [4]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicide Manganese Ore - Port inventory totaled 438.5 million tons, with a significant differentiation between northern and southern regions. Tianjin Port's inventory decreased to 353.5 million tons, lower than last year's level, while Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 84.5 million tons, higher than last year's level [10]. - Jupiter announced the shipment price for manganese ore to China in September 2025. Port manganese ore prices declined slightly [15]. Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production of manganese silicide increased to 195,800 tons, with daily average production rising in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi [28]. Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises increased slightly to 125,200 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products increased to 869,210 tons, and the proportion of rebar increased [38]. Price - The spot market had average trading volume, and prices fluctuated with the market. The price in Inner Mongolia was around 5,820 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 5,950 yuan/ton. HeSteel's first inquiry price for the tender was 6,000 yuan/ton [49]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the immediate profit of manganese silicide was low. Although the profit improved in the short - term after the market rally, the overall price fluctuated greatly, and the continuous increase in chemical coke compressed the profit margin [54]. Month Spread - As of August 8, the September - January spread of manganese silicide was - 80 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period [61]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of manganese silicide warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387,000 tons, and the overall trend continued to decline [63]. Ferrosilicon Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production increased to 109,100 tons. The production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly, while that in Ningxia decreased slightly, and the production in Shaanxi remained unchanged [67]. Demand - The demand from steel mills increased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly higher than the historical average [70]. - The production of magnesium decreased slightly, and the export price of magnesium remained stable [78]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon worsened, but the overall profit was good. Only Shaanxi had significant losses, while Ningxia had relatively high profits [98]. Month Spread - As of August 7, the September - January spread of ferrosilicon was - 178 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period and was at a historically low level [100]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 107,300 tons, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level [103]. Supply - Demand Balance Forecast Manganese Silicide - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand showed fluctuations. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also changed over time [105]. Ferrosilicon - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand also fluctuated. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption changed over time [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Bearish [5] Core Views High-sulfur fuel oil - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day. Chevron has regained the license to produce oil in Venezuela, and the crude oil logistics from Venezuela to Asia has decreased. Currently, the high-sulfur supply in Asia is sufficient and inventories are accumulating. The bunker fuel加注 volume in Fujairah has weakened month-on-month. As the deadline for the agreement set by the US on Russia approaches, the high-sulfur price is relatively supported. Attention should be paid to the recent high-sulfur spot procurement and digestion, tariff sanctions, and crude oil quotas [4]. Low-sulfur fuel oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil price is weakening. In the short term, the low-sulfur fuel oil price is expected to fluctuate. The low-sulfur arrivals in Singapore reached a high in August, and the low-sulfur shipments from Kuwait are stable, with no obvious increase in low-sulfur supply. The low-sulfur market in China has sufficient supply, and demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. The domestic bunker fuel market is at a standstill. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak. Attention should be paid to the recent adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [5]. Summary by Category High-sulfur fuel oil - **裂差**: Under the influence of tariff sanctions, as the negotiation deadline between the US and Russia approaches, Russian oil exports are受阻, and the supply risk premium has increased. The high-sulfur crack spread is at a high level and has strengthened compared to last week [4]. - **价差**: The decline in international crude oil prices has dragged down the fuel oil price [4]. - **供应**: The global total shipments are expected to be loose, and the arrivals in Singapore are relatively high [4]. - **需求**: The power generation demand weakened after reaching its peak in August [4]. - **库存**: Inventories at the ports of Singapore and Zhoushan have significantly increased [4]. Low-sulfur fuel oil - **裂差**: Under the influence of tariff sanctions, as the negotiation deadline between the US and Russia approaches, Russian oil exports are受阻, and the supply risk premium has increased. The low-sulfur crack spread fluctuates slightly within the range of $10 - $12 per ton and has rebounded slightly compared to last week [5]. - **价差**: The spot spread of low-sulfur fuel oil is weak and under short-term pressure, and the spread between high and low-sulfur fuels has narrowed [5]. - **供应**: The global low-sulfur supply has not changed much. Dangote Refinery cancelled its maintenance in June, and the increase in Brazilian exports has remained stable. The low-sulfur exports from Al-Zour have recovered with the end of technical problem maintenance, and recent outbound shipments have remained at a high level. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak [5]. - **需求**: The low-sulfur power generation demand in summer has weakened, the bunker fuel demand remains stable, and downstream buyers take delivery based on rigid needs [5]. - **库存**: The arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in China have continued to rise to a historical high [5].