Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory with a target price of RMB 210.00, while the current price is RMB 176.39 [2]. Core Views - The company is entering the second phase of its revitalization program, focusing on stability and quality of earnings rather than aggressive growth targets. The strategy includes controlling the volume of certain products and expanding others to cover the entire price range [3][13]. - The baijiu industry is currently in a rebalancing phase, transitioning from government reliance to business and personal consumption, supported by recent consumer policies [12][13]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.1% in revenue and 45.5% in net profit from 2015 to 2023, securing a top-three position in the industry for revenue in 2024 [13]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin increased from 67.4% to 76.2% and net profit margin from 9.1% to 34.0% from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong profitability [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is reported at 35.2%, the highest among baijiu companies, showcasing robust financial health [14]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 37.9 billion, with net profit expected to reach RMB 12.8 billion, corresponding to an EPS of RMB 10.5 [15]. Market Strategy - The company aims to increase its revenue share from outside its home province to over 65% by 2025, focusing on high-end marketing strategies in key regions [4][14]. - The company plans to launch new products and enhance existing ones to drive growth in both domestic and provincial markets [4][14].

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-018 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利3.60元 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,219,964,222股为基数，每股派发现金红利 3.60元（含税），共计派发现金红利4,391,871,199.20元。 1. 发放年度：2024年年度 2. 分派对象： 三、 相关日期 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/4 | － | 2025/7/7 | 2025/7/7 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 29 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.02% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.89 percentage points [21]. - The report highlights that the price of Feitian Moutai has shown signs of stabilization, while the fundamentals of the liquor industry may accelerate to a bottom [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new channels and products in the consumer goods sector, particularly as beer and beverage consumption enters a peak season [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on demand, with the white liquor index down by 1.7% this week. The report anticipates a subdued performance in the second quarter [2][13]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies with strong risk resistance such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery [2][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is benefiting from warmer weather, which is expected to boost consumption. The report suggests monitoring alpha-type stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer for potential investment opportunities [14][15]. - The snack food sector is undergoing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in new products and channels, such as Weilong and Yanjinpuzi [16]. - In the seasoning industry, the report notes resilience in basic seasoning leaders and suggests focusing on policy developments that could impact the sector [17]. Frozen Food - The frozen food sector is stable during the off-season, with companies actively developing new products. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of Anjins Food as a significant event [18]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with potential policy catalysts aiding in supply-demand improvements by 2025 [19][20]. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies expected to maintain positive growth. The report recommends focusing on companies like Dongpeng Beverage that are accelerating national and platform expansion [20].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that liquor companies are keen on innovation, focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digital products. For instance, Luzhou Laojiao has developed a 28-degree Guojiao 1573 and is testing 16-degree and 6-degree variants [6][4] - The beverage sector is experiencing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. Companies are launching new products like functional drinks, electrolyte water, and sugar-free tea to meet these needs [6][4] - The snack industry is identified as a strong growth driver, catering to both emotional value and cost-effectiveness, with manufacturers introducing healthier options like konjac and quail eggs [6][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.35% this week, with notable stock performances including *ST Yanshi (+2.66%) and Yili Te (+1.30%) [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation in the liquor sector to meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has increased by 1.48% this week, with top performers like Jindawei (+17.54%) and Huanlejia (+13.91%) [6][8] - The report reiterates investment opportunities in beverages and snacks, driven by differentiated consumer demands and health trends [6][4] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their strong performance outlook [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on bottom opportunities in the liquor sector while pursuing growth in consumer goods. The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in high-end consumption scenarios, leading to a decline in demand. The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brands and distribution channels are likely to adapt and transform successfully [3][11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - From June 23 to June 27, the food and beverage index declined by 0.9%, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.8 percentage points. The health products (+3.6%), baked goods (+2.7%), and seasoning and fermentation products (+1.2%) sectors performed relatively well [11][13] Market Performance - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with the impact of the "ban on alcohol" still felt. The lack of high-end consumption scenarios has further depressed industry demand. The report anticipates increased pressure on liquor companies' performance in the second quarter due to sluggish terminal sales and high channel inventory levels [3][11][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies in the beverage sector. For instance, the price of imported barley fell by 4.3% year-on-year in May 2025, and the quantity imported dropped by 47.8% [31][33] Recommended Companies - The report recommends gradually increasing positions in liquor stocks at low valuations, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu. It also highlights opportunities in consumer goods companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [4][12][46]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% on June 27, with 18 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the metals and communications sectors, which rose by 2.17% and 1.79% respectively [2] - The banking and public utilities sectors saw the largest declines, down by 2.95% and 1.01% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 19.41 billion yuan, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The communications sector had the highest net inflow of 2.579 billion yuan, contributing to its 1.79% increase [2] - The electronics sector also saw a positive net inflow of 2.435 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92% [2] - In contrast, 23 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the computer sector leading at 6.630 billion yuan, followed by the defense and military sector with 2.891 billion yuan [2] Food and Beverage Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector declined by 0.80%, with a net capital outflow of 884 million yuan [3] - Out of 123 stocks in this sector, 57 rose while 60 fell [3] - Notably, 42 stocks had net capital inflows, with Sunshine Dairy leading at 69.11 million yuan, followed by Yili and Beingmate with inflows of 47.95 million yuan and 42.58 million yuan respectively [3] - Major outflows were seen in stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yanghe Brewery, with outflows of 675.12 million yuan, 64.08 million yuan, and 49.90 million yuan respectively [5] Food and Beverage Sector Capital Inflows - Top inflow stocks included: - Sunshine Dairy: +4.89%, 10.20% turnover, 69.11 million yuan inflow - Yili: -0.29%, 0.54% turnover, 47.95 million yuan inflow - Beingmate: +1.74%, 18.88% turnover, 42.58 million yuan inflow [4] Food and Beverage Sector Capital Outflows - Top outflow stocks included: - Kweichow Moutai: -1.19%, 0.30% turnover, -675.12 million yuan outflow - Shanxi Fenjiu: -1.78%, 0.45% turnover, -64.08 million yuan outflow - Yanghe Brewery: -1.40%, 0.57% turnover, -49.90 million yuan outflow [5]

Core Viewpoint - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a decline across various sectors, with banking stocks mostly in the red and significant drops in insurance, liquor, and semiconductor sectors [1][6]. Banking Sector - Most banking stocks experienced a decline, contributing to the overall negative performance of the index [1]. Insurance Sector - Major insurance companies like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance saw market capitalizations of 390.94 billion, 359.61 billion, and 1,045.27 billion respectively, with declines of -0.26 (-0.69%), -0.18 (-0.31%), and -0.16 (-1.78%) [3]. Liquor Industry - Key players in the liquor industry, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, reported market capitalizations of 1,778.15 billion, 217.75 billion, and 464.59 billion respectively, with price changes of -4.50 (-0.32%), -1.16 (-0.65%), and -0.04 (-0.03%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor companies such as Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon reported market capitalizations of 233.53 billion, 249.53 billion, and 326.76 billion respectively, with price changes of -1.01 (-0.23%), -12.76 (-2.09%), and -1.17 (-0.83%) [3]. Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, BYD and Great Wall Motors had market capitalizations of 282.79 billion and 1,834.50 billion respectively, with price changes of -3.57 (-1.06%) and +0.07 (+0.33%) [3]. Energy Sector - Companies in the energy sector, including China Shipping and Sinopec, reported market capitalizations of 686.25 billion and 1,584.96 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.03 (+0.20%) and -0.05 (-0.88%) [3]. Coal Industry - In the coal industry, China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 186.24 billion and 795.34 billion respectively, with price changes of -1.98 (-0.78%) and -0.01 (-0.02%) [3]. Power Industry - The power sector, represented by companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power, had market capitalizations of 192.31 billion and 745.30 billion respectively, with price changes of -0.65 (-2.09%) and -0.03 (-0.32%) [4]. Internet Services - Internet service companies such as Dongfang Caifu reported a market capitalization of 371.40 billion, with a price change of +0.37 (+1.60%) [4]. Food and Beverage Sector - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Citic Securities and Haitian Flavoring reported market capitalizations of 414.23 billion and 342.55 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.38 (+1.38%) and -0.10 (-0.26%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Companies in the consumer electronics sector, including Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision, had market capitalizations of 426.17 billion and 246.39 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.42 (+2.00%) and -0.35 (-0.67%) [4]. Home Appliances - In the home appliance sector, Gree Electric and Haier Smart Home reported market capitalizations of 255.76 billion and 234.57 billion respectively, with price changes of +0.16 (+0.35%) and +0.28 (+1.13%) [4]. Logistics Sector - The logistics sector, represented by companies like SF Holding, had a market capitalization of 276.36 billion, with a price change of +0.60 (+1.13%) [4]. Construction Industry - In the construction industry, China State Construction and XD China Communications reported market capitalizations of 240.07 billion and 527.30 billion respectively, with price changes of -0.02 (-0.34%) and +0.05 (+0.95%) [4].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index component stocks showed a mixed performance with bank stocks rising in the afternoon while insurance stocks continued to decline [1][5]. Banking Sector - Bank stocks generally performed well, contributing to the positive movement in the FTSE China A50 Index [1]. Insurance Sector - Major insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and Ping An Insurance experienced declines in their stock prices, with China Pacific Insurance down by 1.05%, China Life down by 0.52%, and Ping An down by 1.42% [3]. Alcohol Industry - In the alcohol sector, Kweichow Moutai saw a slight increase of 0.48%, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye experienced declines of 0.37% and 0.83% respectively [3]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor companies showed varied results, with North Huachuang increasing by 2.72%, while Cambrian and Haiguang Information saw minor declines [3]. Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, BYD's stock fell by 3.39%, while Great Wall Motors and China Railway High-speed experienced minor declines and increases respectively [3]. Shipping and Oil Industry - China COSCO Shipping saw a slight increase of 0.53%, while Sinopec and PetroChina experienced minor declines [3]. Coal and Battery Industry - China Shenhua's stock decreased by 0.27%, while Ningde Times (CATL) saw a decline of 0.83% [3]. Power and Financial Sector - Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power had mixed results, with Longyuan Power increasing by 0.74% and China Nuclear Power declining by 3.63% [4]. Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector showed declines, with companies like Haitian Flavor Industry and Zhongtai Securities experiencing notable decreases [4]. Consumer Electronics and Pharmaceutical Sector - The consumer electronics sector saw a slight increase in stocks like Luxshare Precision, while pharmaceutical companies like Hengrui Medicine experienced a decline [4]. Logistics and Medical Equipment - The logistics sector, represented by SF Holding, saw a minor decline, while medical equipment company Mindray Medical also experienced a decrease [4]. Non-ferrous Metals and Communication Services - Zijin Mining and China Communications Construction had mixed performances, with Zijin Mining showing a slight decline [4].

Group 1 - The current demand for the liquor industry is at a historical low, with a five-year demand index at 28%, indicating limited downside risk [1] - The supportive policies are expected to provide a foundation for consumer recovery, with economic data from January to March showing positive signs, and more supportive policies anticipated to boost liquor demand [1] - Liquor demand is expected to gradually recover at a slow rate, with short-term rigid demand and potential improvement in banquet demand due to a low base in the same period [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is projected to experience a "valuation-performance" double bottom by 2025, entering a mid-cycle buying point [1] - The dividend yield of the sector is high compared to the ten-year government bond yield, indicating attractive investment value [1] - Despite ongoing downward adjustments in profit forecasts, valuations are at historical lows, suggesting that stock prices may stabilize before earnings do [1] - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye, which are expected to show strong profitability stability [1] Group 3 - The Food and Beverage ETF tracks the China Securities Index for the food and beverage sector, focusing on high-barrier and resilient segments like liquor and dairy products [2] - The top ten constituent stocks include major liquor brands, providing investors with a convenient way to invest in core assets of the "food and beverage" sector [2] - The ETF offers a low investment threshold compared to individual stocks, making it accessible for small investors [2]

Core Insights - The traditional liquor market is experiencing slow growth, while "health + mild intoxication" positioned liquor is emerging as a new competitive arena for liquor companies [1] - The liquor market is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2030, with over 5,000 companies currently involved in the sector [1][5] - The rise of health consciousness and consumption upgrades are driving explosive growth in the liquor segment, appealing to both younger consumers and the elderly [1][6] Industry Trends - The concept of "light health" and "micro-health" is becoming mainstream, leading liquor companies to invest in the liquor segment [3] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are launching new liquor products, indicating a shift from niche to mainstream [3][4] - The liquor market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 22%, with sales revenue expected to reach 65 billion yuan by 2025 [5] Market Potential - The unique brewing process and health attributes of liquor are making it a new favorite in the beverage industry [5] - The young consumer market for alcoholic beverages is valued at 400 billion yuan, with a potential audience of 490 million [5] - The liquor segment is expected to see a 30% growth rate, establishing itself as the "third major liquor type" after traditional liquor and beer [4] Consumer Insights - Young consumers are increasingly seeking low-alcohol, health-oriented drinking options, which liquor can provide [6][8] - There is a lack of consumer awareness and understanding of what liquor is, indicating a need for better education and marketing [8][9] - Social media platforms are seeing a rise in discussions about liquor, with users sharing mixing recipes and experiences [6] Development Challenges - Despite the growth potential, the liquor industry faces challenges such as unclear category definitions and low consumer recognition [8] - A comprehensive standard system is needed to clarify the liquor category and enhance consumer understanding [9]