Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bull market in 2025, but the liquor sector, particularly the high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, is entering a bear market due to poor performance and negative market sentiment [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Moutai's third-quarter report shows stable net income and profit growth, while Wuliangye's performance has drastically declined, with a revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.66%, marking the largest single-quarter revenue drop in over 20 years [3] - Wuliangye's net profit fell to 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year, and its net profit margin dropped from 38.2% to 24.7%, with operating cash flow turning negative at -876 million yuan [3] - Moutai's wholesale price for its 53-degree Flying Moutai has dropped below 1,700 yuan, raising concerns about future market adjustments [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The significant decline in Wuliangye's performance is attributed to excessive inventory at its sales platform companies, leading to price cuts and substantial losses [5] - The shift in consumer behavior, with younger generations drinking less high-end liquor, is not the core reason for the performance decline, but rather the marketing and sales strategies that have resulted in large inventories and cash flow issues [8] - The high prices of premium liquors like Moutai and Wuliangye may become unsustainable, as consumers are becoming more rational and may distance themselves from these brands if prices remain elevated [10]

4 December 2025 | 6:51AM HKT Equity Research Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ): Investor Meeting: More dedicated product/channel reforms for domestic resilience and overseas We hosted Wuliangye mgmt for an investor meeting in Shenzhen on Dec 3rd. The Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as ...

Core Insights - The overall retail price of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market has decreased, ending a period of high price stabilization, with a total price of 9168 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day [1][6] Price Trends - Among the top ten products, most have seen price declines, with Qinghua Lang increasing by 10 yuan per bottle, continuing a five-day upward trend [2][7] - Guojiao 1573 and Xijiu Junpin prices rose by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively, while Wuliangye Pu 58 saw a slight increase of 1 yuan [2][7] - Significant price drops were observed for Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ at 24 yuan, Jian Nan Chun at 12 yuan, and Qinghua Fen 20 at 8 yuan [2][7] Company News - Guizhou Moutai recently held a temporary shareholders' meeting, where new chairman Chen Hua emphasized "high-quality development and sustainable value creation" [2][7] - The brokerage firm Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a positive outlook on Moutai, citing its strong brand barrier and excellent business model, which ensures stable profitability and high cash flow quality [2][7] - Moutai's cash dividend plan for 2024-2026 indicates a minimum annual cash dividend of 75% of the net profit, with an implied dividend yield of 3.6% for 2025, suggesting medium to long-term investment value [2][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent investment by Wuliangye Group in Sichuan Airlines marks a strategic move to extend its brand value and industrial synergy into high-end sectors such as aviation logistics, leveraging its substantial revenue base of nearly 200 billion yuan [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Details - Sichuan Airlines Group has undergone a capital change, with Wuliangye Group becoming the second-largest shareholder, holding 45.83% of the shares, while Sichuan Development holds 54.17% [1]. - Wuliangye Group's registered capital increased from 417 million yuan to approximately 1.219 billion yuan following this investment [1]. - Wuliangye Group has diversified into various sectors, including new energy, logistics, and finance, with 15 subsidiaries, of which only Wuliangye Co., Ltd. focuses on the liquor business [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye Group achieved a sales revenue of 195.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a total profit of 47.243 billion yuan, up 10.86% [2]. - The total tax contribution reached 73.446 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.13% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - Wuliangye Group's recent investments include a 52.93% stake in Sichuan Chuanhong Tea Group and a 20.01% stake in Yibin Yingfa Derui Technology Co., Ltd., indicating a focus on building a complete industrial chain from raw materials to end applications [4][5]. - A strategic partnership with CATL aims to create a new model for zero-carbon industrial transformation, enhancing the group's green development initiatives [4]. Group 4: Brand Expansion - The collaboration with Sichuan Airlines is seen as a significant brand strategy extension, moving Wuliangye's brand presence into the aviation logistics sector, which is expected to enhance brand value by 10%-15% over the next 3-5 years [9]. - Previous joint initiatives, such as the "Cloud Mid-Autumn" themed flight and the "Harmony Global Tour" cultural exchange, have already begun to promote Wuliangye's brand internationally [9].

五粮液12月3日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量6.10万股，成交金额705.16万元，大宗交易成交价为 115.60元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生2笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为907.60万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，五粮液今日收盘价为115.60元，下跌0.83%，日换手率为0.43%，成交额为 19.23亿元，全天主力资金净流出3.19亿元，近5日该股累计下跌2.25%，近5日资金合计净流出6.91亿 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为57.02亿元，近5日减少222.25万元，降幅为0.04%。 据天眼查APP显示，宜宾五粮液股份有限公司成立于1998年04月21日，注册资本388160.8005万人民 币。（数据宝） 12月3日五粮液大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 6.10 | 705.16 | 115.60 | 0.00 ...

Core Insights - Sichuan Airlines Group has undergone a significant change in its corporate structure by adding Wuliangye Group as a shareholder with a 45.83% stake, increasing its registered capital from 417 million to approximately 1.219 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Corporate Changes - The addition of Wuliangye Group as a shareholder is part of a strategic initiative to help Sichuan Airlines recover from the impacts of the pandemic, with a focus on transforming crises into opportunities through reform [1] - The capital increase of 5.048 billion yuan from Wuliangye Group is aimed at enhancing the operational capabilities of Sichuan Airlines [1] Group 2: Strategic Collaboration - Both companies are exploring the development of smart air cargo logistics, aiming to create a new model for intelligent aviation logistics that promotes resource sharing and business collaboration [1] - The successful completion of this capital increase is viewed as a critical strategic leap in the development history of Sichuan Airlines Group, marking a milestone in its growth [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector experienced a decline, with the Consumer ETF (159928) dropping by 0.49%, marking its third consecutive day of decline, and a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) saw a net subscription of 26 million units during the day, with a net inflow of 107 million yuan yesterday, accumulating over 390 million yuan in the past 20 days [1] - As of December 2, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeded 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] Group 2: Policy and Support Measures - Hunan province introduced 11 measures to boost consumption, emphasizing increased financial support for key consumption areas such as trade circulation and life services [3] - Hainan province issued a child-rearing subsidy plan, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for eligible families starting from January 1, 2025 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.89, which is at the 4.41% percentile over the past decade, indicating a high valuation attractiveness [5] - Seasonal trends suggest that Q4 often sees shifts in investment styles, with December being a period where low valuation stocks may gain favor [5] Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - According to Jiangyin International, consumer spending is expected to see a slight recovery in 2025, with moderate growth continuing into 2026, driven by structural changes in consumer demand [7] - The consumer confidence index is gradually improving but remains below the threshold, indicating cautious consumer sentiment [7] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector Insights - Huachuang Securities anticipates that traditional leading companies in the food and beverage sector will improve their market share, while new industry trends are emerging [8] - The food and beverage industry is expected to stabilize after a period of supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on traditional products like beer and dairy [9] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards new demands and business models, with opportunities in functional foods and health products [9]

Core Insights - Sichuan Airlines Group has completed a business change, adding Sichuan Yibin Wuliangye Group as a shareholder and increasing its registered capital from 417 million to 1.219 billion yuan [1][5][10] Group 1: Shareholding Structure - The new shareholding structure includes Sichuan Development (Holding) Co., Ltd. holding 54.1694% and Wuliangye Group holding 45.8306% [4][9] - This is not the first investment from Wuliangye Group, as they previously signed a capital increase agreement with Sichuan Airlines Group for approximately 5 billion yuan in December 2022 [4][9] Group 2: Strategic Collaboration - Wuliangye Group's management expressed intentions to continue supporting Sichuan Airlines Group's development and to strengthen cooperation in related industries [5][10] - Both companies are exploring smart logistics solutions in air freight, aiming to create a new model for intelligent aviation logistics [5][10]

Core Insights - Sichuan Airlines Group has increased its registered capital from 417 million to 1.219 billion yuan, indicating a significant financial restructuring [1] - Wuliangye Group has become the second-largest shareholder of Sichuan Airlines Group, holding just over 45.8% of the shares, following Sichuan Development Holding Co., Ltd. [1] - This capital increase marks the completion of the investment partnership between Wuliangye Group and Sichuan Airlines Group, which has been in progress for five years [1] Company Developments - The registered capital increase of Sichuan Airlines Group reflects a strategic move to strengthen its financial position and operational capabilities [1] - The entry of Wuliangye Group as a major shareholder signifies a potential collaboration between the liquor and aviation sectors in Sichuan [1] - The completion of this investment partnership may lead to new business opportunities and synergies between the two companies [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring and bubble clearing as of late 2025, with prices of premium products like Moutai dropping below official guidance and high inventory levels leading to widespread losses among distributors [1][3][5] Price Collapse and Inventory Issues - The price system in the liquor industry is experiencing a comprehensive loosening, with Moutai's wholesale price falling below 1600 yuan and e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1299 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2021 [3][5] - This "benchmark effect" has spread across the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price drops, leading to over 60% of liquor companies facing price inversions [5][7] - The industry is facing severe inventory issues, with turnover days reaching 900 days and a 300% increase in private inventory circulation, indicating a collapse of speculative buying expectations [5][7] Performance Data - The liquor industry reported its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies in A-shares generating a total revenue of 3177.79 billion yuan (down 5.90% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1225.71 billion yuan (down 6.93% year-on-year) [7][9] - Over 80% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52% and Yanghe's profit dropping by 158% [7] Changing Consumer Logic - The core issue facing the industry is the failure of traditional growth logic, as government and business consumption models have become ineffective due to strict regulations and economic downturns [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the traditional liquor culture, leading to a significant decline in white liquor consumption at social events [9][11] - Consumer demand is shifting from a focus on social consumption to a balance of social and personal enjoyment, with new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and home consumption emerging as growth areas [11][12] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, with a revenue increase of 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its product advantages and market strategies [15][18] - The company plans to adopt a "dual-line" strategy focusing on traditional markets and expanding into younger and international markets, with new product lines aimed at attracting younger consumers [15][18] Industry Transformation - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on investment to a focus on quality, with a projected decline in consumption volume over the next decade [19][20] - Companies are expected to prioritize producing better quality liquor and adapting to changing consumer demands, with a notable increase in the storage of high-quality base liquor [20] - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by social drinking, personal enjoyment, and investment collection, necessitating higher standards for product innovation and brand management [19][20]