Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A/H shares and industrial metals, a market weight in government bonds, and an underweight in the US dollar [1][15][16] - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a strong outlook for A/H shares due to the release of micro trading risks and the upcoming policy window as the economy enters the 14th Five-Year Plan [15][16] - The imbalance between financing demand and credit supply leads to a tactical market weight in government bonds, with expectations of improved liquidity supporting bond market sentiment [15][16][17] Group 2 - Demand expectations for industrial commodities are revised upwards, maintaining a tactical overweight view, particularly for copper, driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles [17][18] - The US dollar is under pressure due to adjustments in monetary policy and economic convergence, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar [17][18] - The report highlights that the Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant growth potential, with a favorable risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [15][16][18]

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：外需修复带动供给边际改善，对制造业 PMI 形成支撑。但是原材料、产成品价 格差走阔，反映内需仍需提振。接下来，基建投资修复值得关注。 2、【机械研究】机器人：优必选等企业加码产业布局、斩获大额订单，产业链协同推进，人形机 器人加速产业化。 3、【军工研究】军工：国家航天局发布关于印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动 计划（2025—2027 年）》的通知，指出商业航天是推动航天产业发展、建设航天强国的重要力量。 我们认为，近期我国商业航天产业及政策端利好频发，我国商业航天事业有望驶入快车道。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 侯欢(分析师) 021-23185643 houhuan@gtht.com S0880525040074 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 ...

Market Overview - Global risk appetite has improved significantly, with major equity indices and commodities rising in tandem as of November 28, 2025[7] - Silver and copper prices have reached historical highs, with silver surpassing $56 per ounce and copper closing at $11,175.5 per ton[7] - The MSCI Global Index increased by 3.5%, with developed markets outperforming emerging and frontier markets[20] Equity Performance - Major U.S. indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.9% and the Russell 2000 increasing by 5.5%[20] - In emerging markets, the A-share market saw a 2.9% increase, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 both up by 4.5%[20] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively[20] Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening by 3.7 basis points to 0.42%[36] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rising to 86.4%[37] Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as the South China and CRB rose by 2%, with 10 out of 13 major commodities recording price increases[55] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7%, dropping below 100, while the euro, pound, and yuan appreciated by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.4%, respectively[77] Risk Indicators - The implied offshore RMB exchange rate for gold has broken the 7 mark, indicating significant currency fluctuations[82] - Key risk indicators such as VIX and MOVE have shown a notable decline, reflecting reduced market volatility[7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in the domestic neuro and peripheral interventional medical device market, with strong commercialization capabilities and rapid sales growth driven by the gradual implementation of domestic centralized procurement [2][10]. - The company has a comprehensive product pipeline with 73 products, of which 51 have received NMPA approval and 8 have obtained EU CE certification, positioning it well for future growth [10][14]. - The company has established a wide distribution network covering over 3,000 hospitals, leading to significant revenue growth in both neurovascular and peripheral vascular interventions [10][18]. - The international business has shown robust growth, with a 36.9% increase in revenue from overseas markets in the first half of 2025, indicating strong potential for long-term international market expansion [10][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Neuro and Peripheral Intervention Dual Development - The company focuses on neuro and peripheral vascular interventional medical devices, having developed a range of products with independent intellectual property rights that meet domestic and international standards [14][15]. - The sales revenue for neurovascular intervention products increased by 25.0% and for peripheral vascular intervention products by 46.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [18][19]. 2. Market Growth Potential - The domestic neuro intervention surgery penetration rate is expected to increase, with significant growth in the market size anticipated [32][40]. - The number of neuro intervention surgeries in China is projected to grow from approximately 161,400 in 2020 to about 740,500 by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28.9% [38][40]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 782 million for 2024, increasing to RMB 1,773 million by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 29.1% [4][10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 100 million in 2024 to RMB 393 million in 2027, with a significant increase in profit margins [4][10]. 4. International Market Expansion - The company has successfully penetrated 27 overseas markets, with a focus on Europe and emerging markets such as Brazil, India, and South Africa [22][23]. - The international business is expected to continue its rapid growth, supported by strategic partnerships with over 60 local partners [23][24]. 5. Profitability and Cost Management - The company maintains a stable gross margin of approximately 71.2% while optimizing production and supply chain processes [27][28]. - Research and development expenditures increased by 19.7% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and product development [30].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to shift from a broad market beta approach to a more refined selection of convertible bonds, focusing on four main themes: technology growth, energy-driven investments, anti-involution, and low-volatility bottom positions [1] - In 2025, the convertible bond market showed a strong performance with the CSI Convertible Bond Index achieving a cumulative increase of 16.50%, while the high-price low-premium index surged by 21.48% [7][16] - The report identifies three significant trends in the convertible bond market for 2025: the scarcity of bottom-position convertible bonds, the indexation of allocation tools, and a valuation logic that is increasingly equity-oriented [16][17] Group 2 - The supply of convertible bonds is expected to remain under pressure, with a notable decline in the total outstanding amount, which decreased by 22.49% compared to the beginning of the year [17][24] - The report forecasts that the valuation of convertible bonds will maintain a high level in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market, particularly due to policy incentives and ongoing industrial policies in technology and high-end manufacturing [17][36] - The report suggests that the convertible bond market will continue to face challenges due to ongoing contraction, with large, high-rated, and highly liquid convertible bonds enjoying liquidity premiums due to their scarcity [17][20] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of convertible bond ETFs as a growing allocation tool for institutional investors, with the market size reaching 68.2 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total convertible bond market [12][31] - The investment logic in the convertible bond market has shifted from a focus on debt protection to an emphasis on equity upside, as indicated by the rising median prices and increased conversion premium rates [16][34] - The report outlines three strategic focuses for 2026: selecting convertible bonds that are not subject to early redemption, strategically participating in new bond issuance windows, and identifying bonds with strong conversion intentions [17][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 61.15 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is intensifying its efforts in the power generation business and seizing opportunities from global digitalization, having secured over 100 million USD in orders in the North American data center market [2][11]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with significant growth in its natural gas business and accelerated capacity construction to ensure delivery [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 13,912 million CNY in 2023 to 25,259 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [3][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,454 million CNY in 2023 to 4,810 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of about 21.1% [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.40 CNY in 2023 to 4.70 CNY in 2027 [3][12]. - The company maintains a healthy return on equity (ROE) projected to reach 16.4% by 2027 [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has made significant inroads into the North American data center market, marking a key business breakthrough with a major contract [11]. - It is enhancing its integrated capabilities in data centers, focusing on areas such as small modular reactors (SMR) power supply and gas turbine rapid power supply [11]. - The company is also advancing its self-developed gas turbine generator sets, which are expected to provide stable and reliable power solutions [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current price of the stock is 51.30 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 28.33 CNY to 57.45 CNY [6]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 52,524 million CNY [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.40 in 2023 to 10.92 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 33.30 CNY, compared to the current price of 26.30 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's main products continue to see growth in both production and sales, with ongoing projects in diol, bio-based new materials, and light stabilizers ensuring long-term growth [2]. - The company demonstrated resilience in Q3 performance, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year, but maintained a stable gross margin and net margin [12]. - The company has a rich project reserve and is steadily advancing capacity construction, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,181 million CNY, with a slight increase to 2,220 million CNY in 2024, and further growth to 2,900 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 13.4% from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 250 million CNY in 2023 to 207 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 292 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.20 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.00 CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 1.40 CNY by 2027 [4]. Project Development - The company is actively pursuing the construction of various projects, including a 35,000 tons/year light stabilizer project expected to be completed by December 2024, and a new 25,000 tons/year light stabilizer project to enhance product variety and competitiveness [12]. - Technological innovations are being implemented to improve product performance and reduce reliance on traditional fossil resources, with several patents filed and granted in 2024 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto [2][6]. Core Views - Li Auto's profitability in Q3 2025 was impacted by the Mega recall, but the company is expected to benefit from accelerated technology iterations and strong intelligent features [2]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 111.68 billion RMB, with net profit forecasted at 1.704 billion RMB [10]. - The company is transitioning back to a "startup" management model to adapt to its growth phase and industry environment [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. However, a decline of 22.7% is expected in 2025 [4]. - Gross profit for 2023 is estimated at 27.497 billion RMB, with a significant increase of 681.7% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 11.704 billion RMB in 2023, but is expected to drop to 1.704 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 78.8% [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 72.55 HKD, with a market capitalization of 155.321 billion HKD [6][7]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 68.65 to 128.70 HKD [7]. Delivery and Revenue Expectations - In Q3 2025, the company delivered 93,000 vehicles, a decrease of 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [10]. - For Q4 2025, vehicle deliveries are expected to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 31% to 37% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has successfully completed a placement to introduce strategic investors and is increasing its investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other technology sectors, reinforcing its AI-first strategy and outlook for value recovery [2][10]. - The company plans to use approximately 70% of the net proceeds from the placement for long-term funding in AI, cloud, and industrial software development, while the remaining 30% will be allocated for general working capital [10]. - The board has proposed changing the company's registered location to Hong Kong, which is expected to simplify compliance and enhance investor confidence [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,294 million RMB in 2023 to 11,001 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 202 million RMB in 2023 to 892 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 69.9% in 2023 and 90.8% in 2024 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 38.13 in 2023 to 8.71 by 2027, indicating improving profitability [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 7.32 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 8,935 million HKD [1][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 3.07 to 10.83 HKD over the past 52 weeks [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.34 RMB in 2024 to 0.77 RMB in 2027 [10][13]. - The expected net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 553 million RMB, 703 million RMB, and 892 million RMB, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales continue to improve, driven by pricing jewelry and its first entry into the Vietnamese market [2][3]. - The company plans to increase its overseas store count and expand into at least three new countries over the next three years [10]. Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company reported revenue of HKD 6.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, with a gross profit of HKD 2.373 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 34.7% [10]. - The operating profit reached HKD 780 million, reflecting a 45.4% year-on-year increase, with an operating margin of 11.4% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 619 million, a 42.5% increase year-on-year, with a net margin of 8.8% [10]. Same-Store Sales and Market Expansion - Overall same-store sales increased by 7.7% year-on-year in FY26H1, with gold and platinum same-store sales up 2.7% and pricing jewelry same-store sales up 22.2% [10]. - The company plans to add 20 new stores overseas in FY26 and aims to increase its global store count [10]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 34.7%, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of pricing jewelry sales [10]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 16.3%, and the administrative expense ratio fell to 2.7%, indicating effective cost management [10]. Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY26, FY27, and FY28 is HKD 1.578 billion, HKD 1.800 billion, and HKD 1.977 billion, respectively [10]. - The report assigns a target price of HKD 40.35 based on a 15x PE ratio for FY26 [10].