Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of US soybean oil drives the rebound of US soybeans, but the performance of US soybeans is still expected to be under pressure. With favorable weather in South America and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, there will be selling pressure later. Recently, the futures market fluctuates following reserve - related rumors, and the 005 contract is expected to remain relatively weak in the later period. Attention should be paid to domestic customs policies and reserve auctions [7]. - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 23, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 395, down 4; in Rizhao it was 335, down 4; in Tianjin it was 355, down 4. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 355, down 4 [4]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 124, down 10; the M1 - 5 was 302, down 9 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 396, down 8; the price difference between the main contracts was 533 [5]. Supply Situation - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%. As of December 3, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 44.7%. Short - term weather is favorable. There are concerns about the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China due to rumored customs delays. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with high premium [6]. Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the提货 performance is good [6][7]. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory of soybean meal is being depleted slowly. The pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be depleted more quickly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PTA prices continued to rise due to cost - support. Planned restarts and shutdowns of PTA capacities affected the spot basis. The polyester industry maintained a high load, and the demand was expected to be supported by factors such as the cancellation of India's BIS certification. [2] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with coal prices falling and new device production increasing, the price was under pressure, but the demand was expected to be boosted by increased polyester export inquiries. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: On December 22 - 23, 2025, INE crude oil rose from 437.9 yuan/barrel to 440.9 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC increased from 1857.7 yuan/ton to 1877.9 yuan/ton. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 892 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 361 to 356. [2] - **PTA**: The PTA main - contract futures price rose from 5040 yuan/ton to 5082 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4885 yuan/ton to 4955 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee and the on - paper processing fee also increased. [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 3735 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton. The MEG inner - market price decreased from 3633 to 3613. [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The PX operating rate decreased slightly from 86.48% to 86.28%. [2] - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate decreased slightly from 74.77% to 74.49%. [2] - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased slightly from 60.43% to 60.67%. [2] - **Polyester**: The polyester load increased slightly from 88.41% to 88.58%. [2] 3. Product Conditions - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices all increased, but their cash - flows showed different trends. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 62% to 36%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased, and the short - fiber sales rate increased from 40% to 57%. [2] - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price increased slightly, but the chip cash - flow decreased, and the chip sales rate decreased from 85% to 54%. [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on December 24. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Influence factors: Affected by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, precious metal prices have strengthened again. Silver benefits from supply - demand imbalance and continuous inflow of ETF holdings, with funds boosting price elasticity. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain high and strong, but risks of sharp fluctuations exist due to accumulated leverage risks and potential weakening of macro - drivers. The better - than - expected Q3 GDP growth in the US weakens rate - cut expectations and may suppress prices. The short - term unilateral strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6]. - Medium - to - long - term view: In the long run, the Fed's easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased dollar credit risks will drive up the demand for precious metals. Gold prices are likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.4% to $4479.01 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $69.34 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 1.4% to $4511.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $69.41 per ounce. AU2602 rose 1.3% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and AG2602 rose 1.4% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price rose 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price fell 20.0%, the spread of gold TD - London rose 2.6%, and the spread of silver TD - London rose - 12.3%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.1%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.9%. The spread of AU2604 - 2602 rose 30.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 rose 50.0% [5]. 3. Position Data - As of December 22, 2025, compared with December 19, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 1.14% to 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV rose 3.32% to 16599.25081 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 2.74%, non - commercial short positions rose 1.89%, and net long positions rose 2.91%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions rose 10.71%, non - commercial short positions rose 0.92%, and net long positions rose 16.07% [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.18% to 93711 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory fell 0.20% to 899663 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory rose 0.32% to 36120091 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.68% to 450643486 troy ounces [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell - 0.07% to 7.05. The US dollar index fell - 0.46% to 98.26, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell - 1.15% to 3.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.17%, the VIX fell - 5.57% to 14.08, the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6878.49, and NYWEX crude oil rose 2.49% to 57.95 [5]. 6. Market Review - On December 23, 2023, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.73% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 4.3% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5].

周二期价略偏强运行,现货小涨,但涨价后成交转弱。往后看,从钢厂检修计划来推导,铁水产量尚未见底,但后续可能复 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%,V27%,0. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 1000 产的动力也不差;更重要的是,时间再往后,还有冬储补库的增量需求,给低位价格提供支撑。煤焦的盘面异动是否会带动 现货企稳甚至出现补库的行为,是决定当下行情能否再延续的重要驱动力。从估值的角度,可适当短多,设置止损;止盈 -200 标位观察前一处高点位置。 【硅铁锰硅】能源端犹动较多,同上走强 近期有关能耗双控,清洁能源和反内卷等政策消息较多,双硅价格受情绪助推向上。由于电力和煤炭是双硅的主要成本,短 期情绪发酵下,双硅价格仍将偏强为主。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润不佳,铁水向下调整,直接需求走 焦炭基差(右轴) 弱。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力大。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足, 中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。对比双硅,近期猛硅供需弱于硅铁 = 青岛港: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, as the stock index valuation is repaired to a moderately high level, the rapid - rising phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may be over, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. Macro - policies and marginal warming of inflation are expected to improve corporate earnings expectations. Capital market policies may bring incremental funds to the A - share market, and Central Huijin will support the market. The stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long strategies [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.27 with a - 0.10bp change, DR007 at 1.41 with a - 2.30bp change, GC001 at 1.86 with a 33.50bp change, GC007 at 1.71 with a 13.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a - 0.10bp change, 1 - year Treasury at 1.34 with a - 1.25bp change, 5 - year Treasury at 1.53 with a - 1.50bp change, 10 - year Treasury at 1.84 with a - 0.75bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury at 4.16 with a 1.10bp change [3] - **LPR**: In December, the 1 - year LPR remained at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%, which was in line with expectations due to the stable seven - day reverse repurchase rate, low net interest margins of large banks, and the mortgage rate reset mechanism [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 5.93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40% on the previous day. With 13.53 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 7.6 billion yuan. This week, 45.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits on Monday and 30 billion yuan of MLF on Thursday [3][4] Stock Index Futures - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4621 with a 0.20% increase, the SSE 50 at 3028 with a 0.24% increase, the CSI 500 at 7257 with a 0.02% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 7392 with a - 0.22% decrease. The corresponding futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) also had respective price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume decreased by 0.9% to 92029, and its position increased by 2.7% to 270424 [5] - **Market Turnover**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8998 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with energy metals, batteries, etc. rising, and tourism hotels, education, etc. falling [5] Futures Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 7.22%, 5.24%, 4.48%, and 4.42% respectively [7] - **IH**: The rates were 1.67%, 0.88%, 0.27%, and 0.89% respectively [7] - **IC**: The rates were 6.96%, 7.02%, 7.14%, and 8.93% respectively [7] - **IM**: The rates were 10.17%, 10.68%, 11.07%, and 12.02% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text Core Viewpoints - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, but the PX price has shown strength, supporting the PX-naphtha spread. Despite the lack of fundamental changes such as supply disruptions or sudden demand spikes, PTA plants have maintained high operating loads, and PX consumption has remained stable. The spread between PX and mixed xylene has widened to $120, leading Korean manufacturers to cut STDP operations and plan to shut down relevant facilities in the second half of December. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but the economic benefits of integrated enterprises have improved significantly due to their raw material self-sufficiency advantage. The commissioning of new polyester plants has driven the polyester load to remain at a high level, PTA consumption has remained high, and market hoarding willingness has increased, causing the basis to strengthen rapidly. On the demand side, although it has weakened seasonally in China, due to the medium to low inventory levels of polyester factories, the willingness to cut production is low. Additionally, the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive an increase in exports [2] Summary of Relevant Indicators Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4885 to 4955, a change of 70 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3613 to 3563, a change of -50 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 5040 to 5082, a change of 42 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3735 to 3623, a change of -112 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6480 to 6515, a change of 35 [2] - Short fiber basis increased from 64 to 93, a change of 29 [2] - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 20 to 12, a change of -8 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5275 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber increased from 1205 to 1240, a change of 35 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5811 to 5908, a change of 97 [2] - Hot-fill polyester bottle chip price increased from 5811 to 5908, a change of 97 [2] - Carbonated-grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5911 to 6008, a change of 97 [2] - Outer disk water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 424 to 478, a change of 54 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10320 to 10340, a change of 20 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3840 to 3825, a change of -15 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16290 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14785 to 14895, a change of 110 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1405 to 1340, a change of -65 [2] - Primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7110 to 7150, a change of 40 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 523 to 520, a change of -3 [2] - Primary low-melting staple fiber price increased from 7605 to 7690, a change of 85 [2] Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 84 to 6452. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were relatively strong, and the prices of traders increased slightly. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and on-site trading was cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi-gloss natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6280 - 6550 yuan for cash on delivery, tax included, self-pickup; in the North China market, it was 6400 - 6670 yuan for cash on delivery, tax included, delivered; in the Fujian market, it was 6280 - 6450 yuan for cash on delivery, tax included, delivered [2] - Polyester bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5840 - 5980 yuan/ton, and the average price increased by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures were running warmly, the supply side raised its offers, the market trading atmosphere was cautious, downstream terminals were temporarily on the sidelines, and the market negotiation focus had risen [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct-spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 35.00% to 57.00%, a change of 22.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The crackdown on illegal mining of mineral resources by the Work Safety Committee Office of the State Council has further catalyzed bullish sentiment. Coupled with the market's re - pricing of the delayed resumption time of lithium mines, it has triggered a rise in lithium carbonate futures prices. Based on the destocking logic caused by the mismatch between supply and demand in the fundamentals, it is expected that the futures price will maintain a bullish trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 500 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,850 yuan/ton, with a change of 500 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 1,404 yuan, with a change of 26 yuan [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 125 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,125 yuan, with a change of 205 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 11,425 yuan, with a change of 575 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 12,875 yuan, with a change of 575 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 40,735 yuan, with a change of 122.5 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 164,700 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 147,300 yuan, with a change of 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 147,100 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,650 yuan, with a change of 0 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 20,860 yuan, with a change of - 5,480 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, with a change of - 100 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 110,425 tons, with a change of - 1,044 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 18,090 tons, with a change of - 1,071 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,485 tons, with a change of - 1,253 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 50,850 tons, with a change of 1,280 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 16,651 tons, with a change of 112 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 107,766 yuan, and the profit is - 10,149 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 103,138 yuan, and the profit is - 7,988 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The implementation of a new round of price increase letters is going well, domestic inventories are being reduced, and the market is viewed as oscillating upward [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Data - On December 23, 2025, the week - on - week change of SP2601 futures price was 0.04%, and the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star increased by 2.82%; the week - on - week change of SP2609 futures price was 0.07%, and the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle increased by 3.13%; the week - on - week change of SP2605 futures price was - 0.04%, and the spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish remained unchanged [1] - The month - on - month change of the outer - market quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 2.94%, and the import cost increased by 2.91%; the outer - market quotation of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 1.89%, and the import cost increased by 1.87%; the outer - market quotation and import cost of Chilean Venus remained unchanged [1] Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In October 2025, the shipment volume of paper pulp to China: The shipment volume of coniferous pulp was 173 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.49%; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp was 131,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80% [1] - The import volume of coniferous pulp in October 2025 was 691,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00% [1] - From November 6 to December 11, 2025, the domestic production volume of broad - leaf pulp fluctuated between 22.9 - 25 tons, and the domestic production volume of chemimechanical pulp fluctuated between 23.5 - 23.8 tons [2] - It is reported that in December, the offer of Chilean Arauco's coniferous pulp was 700 US dollars per ton, an increase of 20 US dollars per ton; the offer of broad - leaf pulp Star was 570 US dollars per ton, an increase of 20 US dollars per ton; the offer of natural color pulp Venus was 620 US dollars per ton, remaining unchanged [2] - In Asia, APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced that the price of bleached broad - leaf wood pulp (BHK) for orders received in December would be increased by 20 US dollars per ton [2] Inventory - From October 30 to December 11, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory fluctuated between 200.8 - 217.3 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory fluctuated between 19.9 - 22.4 tons [2] - As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China was 199.3 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%, and the inventory has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks [2] Demand - From October 30 to December 11, 2025, the production volume of double - offset paper fluctuated between 20.6 - 20.9 tons, the production volume of coated paper fluctuated between 8.0 - 8.6 tons, the production volume of tissue paper fluctuated between 28.36 - 28.78 tons, and the production volume of white cardboard fluctuated between 35.7 - 38.4 tons [2] - Currently, the demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while the prices of tissue paper and white cardboard have slightly increased [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

re 国际期货 TTGE _1X2 inks l留朗尚 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 烯数据 25 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:20017251 2025/12/23 | | | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | | | 指标 | | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | | | | WTI | 56. 15 | 56. 66 | 0. 51 | | | | | | 原油& | Brent | 59. 82 | 60. 47 | 0. 65 | | | | | | 石脑油 | 石脑油 | 534. 88 | 530. 88 | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场震荡整理。市场有部分买盘支撑, | | | | | | | | | | 和苯乙烯主力盘整理,江苏港口 ...