Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current bullish foundation of the bond market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - The implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 still has a probability [2]. - The central point of the appropriate yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is around 1.7%. As long - term topics cool down, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Although the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the China - US negotiations in early August may cause bond market fluctuations, the overall yield center is difficult to deviate significantly without new interest rate cut expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week's Data Review - **Funding Rates**: From July 21 to July 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, with a 16BP increase in funding cost; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, with a 15BP increase. The 7 - day rates fluctuated more significantly across the month, with DR007 rising 16BP to 1.65% and FR007 rising 25BP to 1.75% [11]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase volume continued to increase, with a total of 1656.3 billion yuan. With a large total maturity of 1726.8 billion yuan, a net capital withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan was finally achieved. The central bank also conducted a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 495.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [11][27]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 259BP, and the inversion increased in July. The 2 - year and 10 - year spreads between Chinese and US bonds were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [17]. - **Term Spread**: The US bond term spread contracted, while the Chinese bond term spread changed little. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.43%, and the 10 - year was 1.73%, with the 10 - 2 - year spread slightly widening from 29BP to 30BP. The US bond yield continued to correct, with the 2 - year rising to 3.91% and the 10 - year to 4.40%, and the 10 - 2 - year term spread narrowing from 53BP to 49BP [20]. - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yields of both Chinese and US bonds corrected last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall correction range of Chinese bond yields, except for the 3 - month period, was around 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - end of the US bond yield had the largest correction range, with a 5BP correction in the 3 - 5 - year period [21]. 2. Last Week's Key Bond Market Events - **LPR Remained Unchanged**: On July 21, the new LPR quotes released by the People's Bank of China remained unchanged, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus variety at 3.5% [33]. - **Futures Market Cooling Measures**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits. After the cooling measures were released, the trading volume of coking coal and lithium carbonate futures decreased by more than 20%, with the total trading volume decreasing by more than 1.7 million lots [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current foundation of the bond bull market is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - Even if supply - side reform 2.0 measures are introduced in the July Politburo meeting, it will take time for the policies to be implemented and for the PPI to turn positive, and the impact on the bond market reversal also needs time [2]. - There is still a probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70% after the short - term calm of long - term topics such as "anti - involution" and infrastructure [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds Last Week Data Review - **Funding Rates**: From July 21 to 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, a 16BP increase; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, a 15BP increase. DR007 rose 16BP from 1.49% to 1.65%, and FR007 rose 25BP from 1.50% to 1.75% [8]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase投放 reached 16563 billion yuan, with a large total maturity of 17268 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 705 billion yuan [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 259BP. The 2 - year/10 - year Sino - US bond yield spreads were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [14]. - **Term Spreads**: For Chinese bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread widened from 29BP to 30BP. For US bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed from 53BP to 49BP [14]. - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: Both Chinese and US bond yields pulled back last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall pull - back range of Chinese bond yields was about 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - term US bond yields pulled back by about 5BP [15]. - **Industrial and Fiscal Data**: In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The general public budget revenue decreased by 0.31% year - on - year, with tax revenue recovering and non - tax revenue declining [19]. 3.2 Key Bond Market Events Last Week - **LPR Remained Unchanged**: On July 21, the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [24]. - **Bond Market Adjustment**: Last week, due to anti - involution policy expectations and the Yajiang Hydropower Station theme, the bond market significantly adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield once pulled back to around 1.75%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond pulled back to around 1.97% [20]. - **Exchange Measures and Central Bank Operations**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits, resulting in a more than 20% decline in trading volume. The central bank conducted a 4000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 4958 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [1][20].

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US is experiencing reduced uncertainty in economic growth due to the resolution of tariff negotiations with major trading partners, but inflation concerns are resurfacing[1] - Global inflation risks are increasing, potentially reversing expectations for interest rate cuts, which may impact financial markets in August and September[1] - The US government recorded a fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first surplus in June in nearly eight years, which may alleviate some fiscal pressure from tax cuts[8] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economic stabilization in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by increased fiscal spending and rapid export growth, but the real estate sector continues to face contraction pressures[1] - The "anti-involution" policy may become a central theme in the second half of the year, potentially improving market supply-demand relationships and restoring market confidence[1] - Real estate sales in the first half of 2025 saw a significant decline, with new residential prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month in June[14] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets have been the main source of profit in July, buoyed by positive sentiment from US-EU trade agreements, offsetting declines in domestic and international bond markets[2] - The strategy for August maintains the July allocations, with a focus on hedging positions in Japanese and Italian stocks against German stocks, while being bearish on the international bond market[2] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil, have seen seasonal increases, while gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power and utilities sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company and the launch of the world's largest single green ammonia project in Jilin, showcasing significant advancements in the energy sector [3][40]. - The report notes that the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.65 billion kilowatts in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal prices in maintaining profitability for thermal power companies, with a stable trend expected in coal prices [9]. Market Performance - The report states that the Shenwan Utilities Index decreased by 0.27% during the week of July 21-27, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.94 percentage points [2][15]. - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various segments within the utilities sector, including thermal power, hydropower, and renewable energy sources [15][21]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of the "136 Document" in Liaoning, which sets a mechanism price of 0.3749 yuan/kWh for existing projects and a bidding range of 0.18 to 0.33 yuan/kWh for new projects [36][37]. - The establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company is noted as a significant development, with a total investment of nearly 11.5 billion yuan from various state-owned enterprises [38][39]. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, indicating that the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) was 645 yuan/ton as of July 25, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 1.74% [44]. - The report also provides data on green certificate transactions, with a total of 31.05 and 15.68 million certificates traded for wind and solar power, respectively, during the week of July 21-27 [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has established itself as a significant player in the CAE field, focusing on core technology research and development, which is crucial for national defense and industrial informationization [13][16] - The CAE software market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of approximately 137.09 billion yuan by 2030, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [2][54] - The company is expanding its technical layout and industry fields, leveraging strong customer resources primarily from military and research institutions, which enhances its competitive position [3][8] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.79 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.78 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.72% from 2019 to 2024 [27][30] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 410 million yuan in 2024 to 1.44 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth rates in the coming years [27][30] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.47 yuan in 2024 to 1.61 yuan by 2027, reflecting strong profitability potential [27][30] Industry Analysis - The CAE industry has high technical barriers due to its complex algorithms and the need for continuous innovation, which presents a significant opportunity for domestic companies to replace imported software [2][39] - The overall industrial software and CAE segments are expected to see substantial growth, supported by government policies and funding aimed at promoting domestic technology [2][56] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for domestic CAE solutions, as the market is currently dominated by foreign players, providing a clear path for growth [54][56]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity driven by the dual logic of "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [1][10]. - The supply side is expected to improve as the industry collectively addresses overcapacity issues through policy guidance and collaboration among enterprises [2][8]. - The demand side is bolstered by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is projected to generate substantial cement demand in Tibet [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry - The cement industry is witnessing a phase of supply-side improvement due to the government's focus on preventing "involution" and the coordinated efforts of leading companies to reduce overproduction [2]. - By the end of 2023, the designed capacity for new dry-process cement clinker in China is 1.84 billion tons, while actual capacity exceeds 2.1 billion tons, resulting in an overproduction rate of over 14% [2]. - The implementation of policies such as the capacity replacement measures is expected to lead to a significant reduction in actual production capacity, with a net decrease of 12.1 million tons achieved by April 2025 [2]. 2. Demand Side - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create a demand for 30-35 million tons of cement, significantly boosting the local market in Tibet [10]. - Infrastructure investment in water management has shown strong growth, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.4% as of June 2025, indicating robust support for economic stability [11]. 3. Price and Profitability - The cement industry's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected profit of 15-20 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the previous year [7]. - The average price of cement in the first quarter of 2025 is 397 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% due to lower coal prices and rising cement prices [7]. 4. Related Industries - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and price competition, leading to a collective 30% production cut by major manufacturers [8]. - The waterproofing industry is also experiencing a collective price increase among leading companies to combat low-price competition and rising costs [9].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in market sentiment driven by the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Station project, which has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, and the upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference [1][9] - The A-share market showed strong buying interest, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.76% during the week of July 21 to July 25, 2025 [1][8] - The report indicates a notable "high-low switch" in market behavior, where funds shifted from cyclical stocks to defensive sectors like finance and high-growth "hard technology" tracks, reflecting a transition from "policy expectations" to "industry implementation" [1][2][8] Group 2 - The cyclical sector is experiencing a revival due to two main factors: the clear policy stance against "price war" style competition and the sensitivity of sectors like steel, cement, and photovoltaics to policy benefits, which have led to valuation recovery [2][19] - The report notes a divergence within the cyclical sector, with commodity prices for coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate rising rapidly, while related cyclical stocks show structural differences in performance [2][19] - The report emphasizes that the core path to resolving the "involution" dilemma lies in enhancing economic growth and expanding overall increments, with AI as a key focus area expected to demonstrate resilience amid market fluctuations [3][20] Group 3 - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference is expected to focus on AI infrastructure and financial technology, which may accelerate capital expenditures for companies like Tencent and Alibaba Cloud due to the easing of chip supply constraints [4][20] - The report suggests that semiconductor companies should be monitored closely, as demand driven by AI computing and automotive electronics is expected to boost performance, especially with the traditional peak season starting in Q3 [20] - The report indicates that the cyclical market's sustainability faces challenges, including potential discrepancies between policy effectiveness and market expectations, as well as the need for substantial recovery in end-user demand [3][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expectations for the industry to perform better than the market in the next six months [4][63]. Core Insights - The national electricity consumption in June 2025 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with total consumption reaching 867 billion kilowatt-hours [3][36]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3][37]. - The national power load reached a historical high of 1.5 billion kilowatts on July 16, 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous records [3][38]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Public Utilities Index fell by 1.37% during the week of July 14-20, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.06 percentage points [2][12]. - The industry valuation as of July 18, 2025, shows a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 17.2, down from 17.43 the previous week, and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.73, down from 1.75 [1][23][26]. Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks for the week included Mindong Electric (+6.75%), Jiufeng Energy (+5.52%), and Langfang Development (+4.79%) [2][29]. - Underperforming stocks included Wanqing Energy (-9.25%), Shaoneng Shares (-7.04%), and Huayin Electric (-6.53%) [2][29]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing trend of stable coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi mixed coal price at 634 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [3][42]. - The report also notes the significant trading volumes in green certificates, with a total of 17.42 thousand wind power and 6.43 thousand photovoltaic power certificates traded from July 14 to July 20, 2025 [3][45]. Recommendations - For thermal power, the report suggests a long-term view on demand-side supply and peak regulation, with expectations for stable profit margins [7]. - For hydropower, it recommends positioning in relatively undervalued leading stocks during times of reduced risk appetite [8]. - In the green energy sector, the report advises focusing on leading companies and regions with declining electricity prices [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Jin Feng Technology, Daikin Heavy Industries, and Yun Da Co., while recommending "Hold" for companies like Tai Sheng Wind Energy and Jin Lei Co. [1][1][1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of wind power construction in coastal provinces, driven by the release of key project lists and favorable regulations [3][6][6] - The report notes significant growth in wind power installations, with a 134.21% year-on-year increase in new installations from January to May 2025, totaling 46.28 GW [1][24][24] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of new regulations in the UK and ongoing projects in China, which are expected to boost the wind power sector [6][10][10] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Power Trading Center has released draft guidelines for the sustainable development pricing mechanism for new energy projects, applicable to projects commissioned after June 1, 2025 [1][10][10] - The report tracks stock performance, noting that companies like Shangwei New Materials and Zhongji United have seen significant stock price increases, while others like Guoda Special Materials have experienced declines [1][18][21] Market Performance - The wind power equipment index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 32.59 and a market-to-book ratio of 1.64, indicating a stable valuation environment [2][20][20] - The report indicates that the wind power equipment sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 0.54% in the wind power equipment index [2][13][13] Installation Data - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China reached approximately 567.49 million kW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.10% [24][30][30] - The report details that the first quarter of 2025 saw 13.64 GW of new land-based wind power installations, a decrease of 7.90%, while offshore installations increased by 42.03% to 0.98 GW [24][28][28] Material Prices - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with increases in medium-thick plates and rebar, while prices for copper and aluminum have decreased [33][37][37]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The commercial and industrial energy storage sector is experiencing a boom, while the rhythm of photovoltaic shipments is adjusting. In June 2025, China's total export value of solar cells and modules was $2.2 billion, down 24.2% year-on-year and 8.6% month-on-month, with an estimated total export volume of 30.03 GW, up 9.3% year-on-year and down 8.4% month-on-month [2] - The inverter exports in June 2025 totaled $917 million, with a year-on-year and month-on-month change of -0.06% and +10.64%, respectively. The export scale reached 5.1289 million units, down 12.4% year-on-year and 13.06% month-on-month [2] - The European inverter channel status has returned to health, with strong demand for commercial energy storage. The overall export value remains stable above 2 billion yuan, with active demand in key Asian markets such as India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Southeast Asia [2] - The past year has seen a decline in the photovoltaic storage industry, with no clear bottom performance in financial reports. However, the production changes and price trends suggest that 2024-2025 may represent a bottoming period for industry profits [3] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Canadian Solar, JA Solar, Junda Co., Sungrow Power, Foster, Deye, Jinlang Technology, Shenghong Co., Dike Co., and Flat Glass [3] Summary by Sections - In June 2025, the export volume of photovoltaic modules to Europe was 9.03 GW, down 6.95% month-on-month, while exports to non-European markets reached 221 GW, up 19.26% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights the performance of various provinces in inverter exports, with Zhejiang exporting 1.9836 million units, Jiangsu 426,500 units, Guangdong 1.6482 million units, and Anhui 59,400 units in June 2025 [2] - The report emphasizes that the supply-side issues in the photovoltaic industry have led to losses in old capacities and delays in new projects, with irrational competition and policy guidance accelerating capacity clearance [3]