3000 8000 2000 策略观点 等待经济政策为市场定调 投资要点 本周 A 股延续上涨势头。本周主要股指继续全数上涨,其中创业 板指上涨 3.17%表现最佳,其余主要指数中代表权重蓝筹的上证指数 和上证 50 相对较弱,分别上涨 0.69%和 0.28%。风格方面,本周风格 层面出现分化,成长、消费和周期风格继续上涨,金融和稳定风格出 现回调。市值风格方面,本周大中小盘市值风格均有上涨,中盘和小 盘指数表现明显优于大盘指数。本周代表核心资产和成长龙头的茅指 数和宁组合亦有上涨,宁组合整周上涨 1.56%,茅指数上涨 2.29%。 个人投资者情绪下行,与指数走势背离。截至7月19日个人投 资者情绪指数7日移动平均数报 0.58%. 较 7月12日的9.40%明显下 大盘指数 2000 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子签 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email : huangziyin@cnpsec. com 近期研究报告 《红利研究(1):为什么是银行?终点 又在何处》 - 2025.07.14 降。虽然近两周Ａ股指数层面持续上行,但个人投资者情绪却持续走 低,这 ...

发布时间：2025-07-21 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 行业基本情况 | | 收盘点位 | 5199.61 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5230.85 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《滞胀交易驱动金属价格上行》 - 2025.07.06 有色金属行业报告 （2025.07.12-2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company specializes in thermal management products and solutions, with a focus on research, production, and sales of thermal management materials and devices. Its products are widely used in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and communication devices, with significant partnerships with major brands like Samsung, OPPO, and Huawei [4][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 943 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 185 million yuan, which is a 20.26% increase compared to the previous year [4][9]. - The company has developed a strong position in the high-end thermal interface materials market, successfully replacing foreign brands in certain segments due to its proprietary technology and long-term R&D investments [5]. - The growth of the company's graphite film business is supported by the booming consumer electronics market, which has increased the demand for heat dissipation materials [6]. - The company has proactively invested in the development of heat pipes and uniform temperature plates, which have become significant sources of revenue as the demand for high-performance consumer electronics rises [7][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.04 billion yuan in 2025, 1.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.50 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 205 million yuan, 247 million yuan, and 304 million yuan respectively [9][12]. - The report indicates that the current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61 times for 2025, 51 times for 2026, and 41 times for 2027 [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: GRU Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The GRU model integrates fundamental and technical features to predict stock performance, leveraging historical data and recurrent neural network structures for time-series analysis [3][4][5]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Input features include fundamental indicators (e.g., financial ratios) and technical indicators (e.g., momentum, volatility) [3][4]. - The GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) architecture processes sequential data to capture temporal dependencies [3]. - The model is trained on historical data, with optimization targeting the minimization of prediction errors [3]. - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model shows mixed performance across different stock pools, with notable underperformance in certain scenarios [3][5][6]. 2. Model Name: Barra1d - **Model Construction Idea**: The Barra1d model is a factor-based model that emphasizes short-term price movements and volatility [3][4][5]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Factors include short-term momentum and volatility metrics [3][4]. - The model applies a linear regression framework to estimate factor exposures and returns [3]. - Portfolio construction involves long positions in stocks with high factor scores and short positions in stocks with low scores [3][4]. - **Model Evaluation**: Barra1d demonstrates strong performance in multiple stock pools, with consistent positive returns in backtests [4][5][6]. 3. Model Name: Barra5d - **Model Construction Idea**: Barra5d extends the Barra1d model by incorporating a longer time horizon for factor evaluation [3][4][5]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Factors include medium-term momentum and volatility metrics [3][4]. - The model uses a similar regression-based approach as Barra1d but adjusts for longer-term trends [3]. - Portfolio construction follows the same long-short strategy as Barra1d [3][4]. - **Model Evaluation**: Barra5d shows strong year-to-date performance, outperforming benchmarks in multiple scenarios [5][6][7]. --- Model Backtest Results GRU Model - **Close1d**: Weekly return -1.59%, YTD return 8.61% [31] - **Barra1d**: Weekly return 0.80%, YTD return 22.50% [31] - **Barra5d**: Weekly return 0.63%, YTD return 28.18% [31] Multi-Factor Portfolio - Weekly excess return: -0.19% - YTD excess return: 2.73% [34] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures historical sensitivity of stock returns to market movements [15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated as the slope of the regression of stock returns against market returns over a specified period [15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Beta factor showed strong long-side performance in recent weeks [16]. 2. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the persistence of stock price trends [15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated as the mean of historical excess returns over a defined period [15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Long-term momentum factors demonstrated positive returns, while short-term momentum factors underperformed [18][20]. 3. Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the variability of stock returns [15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weighted combination of historical return volatility, cumulative deviation, and residual volatility [15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Volatility factors showed strong positive returns, particularly in long-term horizons [18][20]. 4. Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the growth potential of companies based on financial metrics [15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weighted combination of earnings growth rate and revenue growth rate [15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Growth factors exhibited strong positive returns across multiple stock pools [18][20][23]. --- Factor Backtest Results Beta Factor - Weekly return: Positive [16] Momentum Factor - Long-term momentum: Weekly return 2.87% [22] - Short-term momentum: Weekly return -3.48% [22] Volatility Factor - Long-term volatility: Weekly return 4.01% [22] - Short-term volatility: Weekly return 2.87% [22] Growth Factor - Weekly return: Positive [18][20][23]

发布时间：2025-07-21 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《红利研究（1）：为什么是银行？终点 又在何处》 - 2025.07.14 策略观点 等待经济政策为市场定调 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股延续上涨势头。本周主要股指继续全数上涨，其中创业 板指上涨 3.17%表现最佳，其余主要指数中代表权重蓝筹的上证指数 和上证 50 相对较弱，分别上涨 0.69%和 0.28%。风格方面，本周风格 层面出现分化，成长、消费和周期风格继续上涨，金融和稳定风格出 现回调。市值风格方面，本周大中小盘市值风格均有上涨，中盘和小 盘指数表现明显优于大盘指数。本周代表核心资产和成长龙头的茅指 数和宁组合亦有上涨，宁组合整周上涨 1.56%，茅指数上涨 2.29%。 个人投 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture with overlapping policy dividends, technological inflection points, and capital enthusiasm, presenting both opportunities and risks [7][8] - Short-term focus should be on regional cluster models and landmark technologies that drive practical applications, while long-term investment should consider technological convergence and cost reduction capabilities [8] Industry Overview - The humanoid robot index increased by 6.79% in the week of July 14-18, 2025, outperforming other indices such as the ChiNext (+3.17%) and the CSI 300 (+1.09%) [5][15] - Year-to-date, the humanoid robot index has risen by 30.67%, ranking second among 31 sub-industry indices [5][16] Important Industry Dynamics 1. **Industry Development**: - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, will debut in a Los Angeles restaurant, showcasing its service capabilities [21] - Meta announced a multi-billion dollar investment in AI and data centers to accelerate its AI development [22] - UBTECH introduced a hot-swappable battery system for its humanoid robots, enabling 24/7 operation [24] - A domestically developed humanoid robot named "Photon" was unveiled in Hubei, with a production capacity of 300 units per year [25] - Hefei Zero Point Robotics showcased its humanoid robots for various applications, securing significant orders [26] 2. **Policy News**: - The Hubei Chain Expo highlighted the humanoid robot industry, aiming for a scale of over 10 billion by 2027 [33] - Huang Renxun emphasized the role of AI in reshaping global supply chains during the Chain Expo [34] - The first global humanoid robot sports event was launched, promoting technological engagement [35] 3. **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - Hubei Kofeng Intelligent released new joint modules to enhance humanoid robot performance [39] - Noli Co. is collaborating with Zhejiang University to accelerate the development of intelligent logistics robots [40] Related Companies - Key suppliers include Henggong Precision, Zhongdali De, and Fulin Precision [9] - System integrators and partners include Lingyi Intelligent, Junpu Intelligent, and Blues Technology [9] - Potential supply chain participants include Zhenyu Technology, Zhengyu Industrial, and Shuanglin Co. [9] Market Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Shangwei New Materials: +148.85% - Zhongdali De: +30.62% - Zhejiang Rongtai: +27.97% [16]

Economic Growth - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, resulting in a 5.3% growth rate for the first half of the year, easing pressure to meet the annual target of around 5%[1] - A growth rate of approximately 4.7% in the second half of the year is sufficient to meet the annual target[1] - Capital formation showed the most significant marginal improvement in driving economic growth, while external demand weakened[1] Consumption Trends - The monthly funding scale for the "old-for-new" policy was 27 billion yuan (approximately 162 billion yuan total) in the first half, decreasing to 23 billion yuan (approximately 138 billion yuan total) in the second half, indicating a potential decline in its impact on consumption[3] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52.3% in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points from Q1, while capital formation contributed 24.7%, up 7.9 percentage points[9] - Retail sales growth is expected to decline by 1% in the second half compared to the first half due to the impacts of the "old-for-new" policy and a slowdown in restaurant income growth[3][22] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance has intensified, with a supply-demand gap of 3.76% in June, an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Industrial value-added growth was 6.4% in Q2, with a month-on-month increase observed, but the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a continuous decline, indicating weakening price pressures[12] Risks and Challenges - Effective demand insufficiency remains a critical issue that could undermine sustainable production growth, with the "anti-involution" policy potentially impacting short-term production[2][26] - Risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[28]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights strong price support for TDI, with multi-crystalline and mono-crystalline silicon responding positively to the "anti-involution" policy. The focus is on preventing cutthroat competition in sectors such as silicon materials, coal chemical, and chlor-alkali chemical, with attention on performance and price increases in potassium fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer, TDI, and pesticides as the mid-year report period approaches [5][9] - The basic chemical sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.09%, resulting in a 0.69 percentage point advantage [6][19] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is 3635.87, with a 52-week high of 3635.87 and a low of 2687.54 [2] Price Movements - Major price increases were observed in multi-crystalline silicon (28.21%), liquid chlorine (21.78%), and TDI (18.83%) [9][25] - The report also notes a decline in prices for strontium carbonate (-16.67%) and vitamin K3 (-6.85%) [10][27] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include significant increases for companies such as Shangwei New Materials (148.85%) and Dongcai Technology (33.16%) [7][20] - Conversely, stocks like Xingmin Zhitong (-16.56%) and Hongbai New Materials (-14.77%) experienced substantial declines [8][22] Key Companies and Ratings - Key companies with investment ratings include: - Wanhua Chemical: Buy, closing price 59.7, market cap 186.95 billion, 2025E EPS 139.5, PE 13.4 [12] - Runfeng Co.: Buy, closing price 61.6, market cap 17.31 billion, 2025E EPS 10.4, PE 16.6 [12] - Yangnong Chemical: Buy, closing price 61.1, market cap 24.78 billion, 2025E EPS 13.8, PE 17.9 [12] - Sailun Tire: Buy, closing price 13.3, market cap 43.57 billion, 2025E EPS 43.1, PE 10.1 [12]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: July 21, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data shows that production is heating up, the real estate market is declining marginally, prices are diverging, and shipping indices are also showing a differentiated trend. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stimulation policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and international geopolitical changes [2] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: In the week of July 18, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 7.6 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of July 16, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants increased by 0.1 pct [9] - Chemical Industry: The operating rates of PX and PTA remained flat compared to the previous week [9] - Automobile Tires: In the week of July 17, the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 0.54 pct, and that of semi-steel tires increased by 3.07 pct [9] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land transaction area declined, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: In the week of July 13, the total national movie box office revenue decreased by 123 million yuan compared to the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of July 13, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.8 million vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 0.7 million vehicles [15] - Shipping Indices: In the week of July 18, SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.77%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 23.39% [18] Prices - Energy: On July 18, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.53% to $69.28 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price increased by 2.53% to 932.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: On July 18, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.36%, +1.38%, and +3.14% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.73% [21] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products decreased. The wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 decreased by 0.54%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.29%, +0%, -1.36%, and -2.55% respectively compared to the previous week [23] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On July 17, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased by 66,400 person-times, and that in Shanghai increased by 438,600 person-times [26] - Flight Volume: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 252.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 7.43 flights, and that of international flight volume increased by 14.71 flights [27] - Urban Traffic: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities decreased by 0.06 [27]

- The report focuses on the application scenarios of stablecoins, including DeFi, local payments, cross-border settlements, and Real World Assets (RWA), analyzing their full circulation processes and loss-profit dynamics[3][4][25] - Stablecoins are categorized into three types: fiat-backed stablecoins (e.g., USDT, USDC), crypto-collateralized stablecoins (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic stablecoins, each with distinct mechanisms for maintaining value stability[11][12] - USDC's core business model is built on compliance and transparency, supported by reserves in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bills, and strategic partnerships with regulated crypto exchanges like Coinbase[15][16][17] - USDC demonstrates efficiency improvements across four key scenarios: DeFi transactions, local and cross-border payments, and RWA investments, significantly reducing costs and transaction times compared to traditional systems[18][19][25][45] - DeFi applications of stablecoins include borrowing/lending protocols, liquidity pools in decentralized exchanges (DEXs), derivatives markets, and serving as a safe haven during market volatility[25][33][34] - Local payment systems integrate stablecoins into existing networks like Visa, enabling T+0 settlements and reducing merchant fees to 0.3%-0.7%, compared to traditional rates of 2%-3%[35][38][41] - Cross-border settlements using stablecoins bypass SWIFT systems, achieving near-instant transactions with fees below 1%, compared to traditional costs of 3%-6%[42][45][48] - RWA tokenization leverages stablecoins for efficient fund subscription, automated yield distribution, and 24/7 liquidity, reducing transaction costs and enhancing accessibility[49][55][58] - The stablecoin market is dominated by USD-backed assets, with USDT leading at $1606 billion and USDC rapidly growing to $620 billion, driven by compliance and transparency[66][68][73] - USDC is positioned as the "compliance-first" choice across multiple scenarios, while USDT dominates offshore and less-regulated markets, facing challenges in transparency and auditability[75][76] - Bank-issued stablecoins target B2B wholesale clearing, while tech giants like PayPal leverage native user bases for retail payments, constrained by regulatory limits[77][78] - CBDCs are designed as government-operated RTGS systems, focusing on cross-border applications through projects like m-Bridge[79][80] - The stablecoin ecosystem is reshaping traditional financial intermediaries, benefiting end-users and digital infrastructure providers while challenging legacy systems like SWIFT and correspondent banks[63][72][73]