证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业相对指数表现 -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 国防军工行业报告 河北一硝化棉厂商煮洗釜爆炸，硝化棉供应紧张或 进一步加剧 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年 5 月 30 日 18 时 20 分，衡水市武 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The defense sector is showing signs of recovery, and the commercial aerospace outlook is promising. The company has faced significant revenue declines due to market conditions and project delays but is positioned to benefit from improving demand in the defense industry and expanding opportunities in commercial aerospace [5][6][7]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 54.09 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2.3 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 125.30 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 630 million yuan, a 26% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 47 million yuan, down 41% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenues fell to 86 million yuan, a 53% decline, with a net loss of 18 million yuan, representing a 283% decrease [5][6]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a rebound in net profits from 81 million yuan in 2025 to 166 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 74%, 52%, and 35%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 72, 47, and 35, respectively [7][9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing production and delivery of China's C919 passenger aircraft, with an expected annual production capacity of 75 units by 2025 and 200 units by 2029 [6] - The C919 aircraft has achieved over 50% domestic production rate, although key components like engines and avionics still rely on foreign suppliers [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply chain security for aviation materials, predicting a shift towards domestic production of critical systems and high-value components [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 1508.79, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Recent Developments - The U.S. has suspended the sale of certain technologies to Chinese companies, impacting the development of the C919 aircraft [5] - The report notes that the CJ-1000A engine development is progressing better than expected, which is crucial for the C919's future [9] Market Performance - The relative performance of the defense and military industry shows a fluctuating trend, with a peak increase of 32% observed from June 2024 to June 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit, with a forecasted 2024 net profit of 181 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 100.11% [4][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 927 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.69% [10]. - The company has optimized its business structure, leading to sustained profit growth, particularly in the product sales and operational services segments [4][5]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 33.68 yuan - Total shares: 0.95 billion, circulating shares: 0.64 billion - Total market capitalization: 3.2 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 2.2 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 36.10/22.10 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 39.0% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 17.73 - Largest shareholder: Gao Weirong [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue structure has shifted, with operational services now accounting for the largest share of revenue at 34.74%, followed by product sales at 29.11% [5]. - The gross margin for product sales has improved to 49.29%, an increase of 3.99 percentage points, attributed to the acquisition of Longli Chemical [6]. - The company’s copper extraction agent business has shown strong performance, with Longli Chemical's revenue increasing by over 36% and net profit by 121% post-acquisition [7]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain stable gross margins across its business segments, with projected net profits of 183 million yuan in 2025, 218 million yuan in 2026, and 258 million yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 18.9%, and 18.6% respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 181 million yuan in 2024, with a revenue of 927 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.69% [4][10] - The business structure has been optimized, leading to a significant increase in profit margins, particularly in the product sales segment, which saw a 96% year-on-year revenue growth [5][6] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, such as that of Longli Chemical, which has positively impacted revenue and profit growth [7][10] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 33.68 yuan - Total shares: 0.95 billion, circulating shares: 0.64 billion - Total market capitalization: 3.2 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 2.2 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 36.10/22.10 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 39.0% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 17.73 - Largest shareholder: Gao Weirong [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects a net profit of 181 million yuan, a 100.11% increase year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 116 million yuan, up 54.68% [4][10] - The revenue structure has shifted, with the operational service business now accounting for the largest share of revenue at 34.74%, while the comprehensive solution business has decreased to 32.73% [5] - The gross margin for product sales has improved to 49.29%, an increase of 3.99 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Projections - The company forecasts continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 183 million, 218 million, and 258 million yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 18.9%, and 18.6% [10][12] - The EBITDA is projected to grow from 155.88 million yuan in 2024 to 338.69 million yuan by 2027 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in profitability, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.08%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, up 73.80% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin stands at 43.37%, supported by low-cost inputs and sales growth in non-smart home sectors [4] - The company is expanding its product matrix and customer base, driven by increasing digital penetration and a robust developer ecosystem [5] - The company is also enhancing its software application solutions, including an AIoT cloud platform and Matter solutions, to support new customer development [5] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 141.18 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.1 billion yuan [3] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.61 billion, 3.50 billion, and 4.60 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 450 million, 630 million, and 841 million yuan for the same years [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 2.17 yuan in 2024 to 5.37 yuan in 2027 [8] - The projected net profit growth rates are 149.13%, 32.77%, and 40.46% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in profitability, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.08%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, up 73.80% year-on-year [4] - The company is expanding its product matrix across multiple digitalization fields, with rapid growth in new customer acquisition supporting future business growth [5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.61 billion, 3.50 billion, and 4.60 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 450 million, 630 million, and 840 million yuan for the same years, maintaining a "Buy" rating [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 141.18 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.1 billion yuan and a total share capital of 1.57 billion shares [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.71 [3] Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - The company is projected to have a revenue growth rate of 40.04% in 2024, followed by 30.11% in 2025, and 34.19% in 2026 [8] - The expected net profit growth rates are 149.13% for 2024, 32.77% for 2025, and 40.46% for 2026 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.17 yuan in 2024, increasing to 5.37 yuan by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.278 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.67%, and a net profit of 1.030 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71.57% [2][10]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, with all five major business segments showing positive growth, particularly in optical components and film optical panels, which contributed significantly to the main revenue [2][3]. - The company has established a global presence with six production bases and is actively expanding its international market reach, enhancing its collaboration with major clients [3][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.346 billion yuan, 8.596 billion yuan, and 10.059 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.207 billion yuan, 1.416 billion yuan, and 1.664 billion yuan [7][10]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 22 times, 19 times, and 16 times, respectively [7][10]. Business Strategy - The company has acquired a 95.60% stake in Guangdong Aikesi, enhancing its strategic development in the AR/VR sector and positioning itself as a comprehensive optical solution provider [6][7]. - The company is transitioning from a product-driven model to a technology innovation-driven model, aiming to become a leading optical solution supplier [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.278 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.67%, and a net profit of 1.030 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71.57% [2][10]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, with all five major business segments showing positive growth. The optical components and film optical panel segments are the primary revenue contributors, accounting for 47% and 40% of total revenue, respectively [2][3]. - The company has established a global presence with six production bases and is actively expanding its international market reach [3][5]. - The acquisition of a 95.60% stake in Guangdong Aikesi enhances the company's capabilities in AR/VR and 3D visual recognition solutions, positioning it as a competitive player in the market [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 7.346 billion yuan, 8.596 billion yuan, and 10.059 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.207 billion yuan, 1.416 billion yuan, and 1.664 billion yuan [7][10]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22 times, 19 times, and 16 times, respectively [7][10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods GRU Model - **Model Name**: GRU - **Model Construction Idea**: The GRU model is used to mine volume and price information, and this report explores its ability to incorporate financial information[2][14]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Range**: 20130101-20250430, all market stocks (excluding Beijing Stock Exchange)[16] - **Input**: Each stock has one sample at the end of each month, containing volume and price information for the past 240 trading days, including 7 fields: opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, trading volume, trading amount, and turnover rate. Each field is standardized using z-score for 240 values[16]. - **Prediction Target**: Next month's return rate standardized by cross-section (opening price at the beginning of the month to closing price at the end of the month)[16]. - **Training Set**: Samples from the past 6 years, divided into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio according to time sequence[16]. - **Training Method**: Rolling training every month, early stopping if the loss function does not decrease for 10 consecutive rounds[16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model can simultaneously mine volume and price information and financial information. The high-frequency processing of financial information improves the model results to some extent[2][18]. - **Model Testing Results**: - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.75% - **IR**: 2.25 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 4.71%[3][19][23] GRU Model with Financial Information - **Model Name**: GRU with Financial Information - **Model Construction Idea**: Incorporating financial information into the GRU model to improve its performance[4][24]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Simple Splicing of Financial Information**: Financial data is calculated as TTM value according to the latest available quarterly report for each trading day, then spliced into new columns. The matrix containing volume and price information and fundamental information is standardized and input into the GRU network[25]. - **Adjusted Financial Information**: Assuming the TTM value of financial indicators grows steadily at the quarterly growth rate, the daily adjustment formula for TTM values is: $$ \mathrm{DFTTM}_{\mathrm{q1}}={\frac{\mathrm{FactorTTM}_{\mathrm{q1}}-\mathrm{FactorTTM}_{\mathrm{q0}}}{a b s\big(\mathrm{FactorTTM}_{\mathrm{q0}}\big)}} $$ $$ \mathrm{Factort} = \mathrm{FactorTTMq} + \mathrm{abs(FactorTTMq)} \times \left(\frac{90}{1}\right) $$ where t is the trading day, q is the financial report period (March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31)[36][38]. - **Model Evaluation**: Incorporating financial information improves the overall performance of the baseline model, especially before 2022. However, after 2023, the improvement is weaker or even negative[4][35][42]. - **Model Testing Results**: - **Annualized Excess Return**: 7.76% - **IR**: 1.65 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 5.40%[41][44] GRU Model with Simplified Financial Information - **Model Name**: GRU with Simplified Financial Information - **Model Construction Idea**: Simplifying the financial indicators to only include important ones like net profit TTM and market value[45]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Simplified Financial Information**: Only retaining important indicators like net profit TTM and market value, and incorporating them into the GRU model[45]. - **Model Evaluation**: Simplifying the financial indicators improves the overall performance of the model, especially before 2022. After 2023, the improvement is weaker but still positive[45][55]. - **Model Testing Results**: - **Annualized Excess Return**: 9.97% - **IR**: 1.93 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 5.70%[51][52] Mixed Frequency Model - **Model Name**: Mixed Frequency Model (barra5d + daily GRU) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combining long-term and short-term prediction capabilities by integrating barra5d and daily GRU models[56][65]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Input**: Combining the daily GRU model with the barra5d model, which is trained on 240-minute intraday data to predict the next 1-5 days' returns[56][65]. - **Model Evaluation**: The mixed frequency model significantly improves the performance of the barra5d model, especially after October 2024. Adding fundamental information further stabilizes the annual excess performance[65][72][80]. - **Model Testing Results**: - **Annualized Excess Return**: 11.82% - **IR**: 2.39 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 5.70%[77][78] Model Backtesting Results GRU Model - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.75% - **IR**: 2.25 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 4.71%[3][19][23] GRU Model with Financial Information - **Annualized Excess Return**: 7.76% - **IR**: 1.65 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 5.40%[41][44] GRU Model with Simplified Financial Information - **Annualized Excess Return**: 9.97% - **IR**: 1.93 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 5.70%[51][52] Mixed Frequency Model (barra5d + daily GRU) - **Annualized Excess Return**: 11.82% - **IR**: 2.39 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 5.70%[77][78]