Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustment in the bond market, particularly with long-term interest rates rising significantly while short-term rates are declining. The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 3.1bps and 3.5bps to 1.88% and 2.30%, respectively, while the 1-year government bond yield fell by 4.9bps to 1.29% [1][9] - The widening yield spread between long-term and short-term bonds has led to discussions about implementing a negative duration strategy, which aims to capitalize on the current market conditions by shorting long-term bonds [2][9] - The negative duration strategy has shown significant excess returns recently, with a hypothetical portfolio consisting of 100% 1-year bonds and a 15% short position in long-term bonds yielding a 1.0% return since November 19, 2022, outperforming the overall bond index [2][10] Market Dynamics - The yield spread between 30-year and 1-year government bonds has widened from 73bps on November 17, 2022, to 101bps on January 9, 2023, marking a near two-year high [2][9] - The report notes that the adjustment in long-term bonds is primarily driven by non-bank institutions, particularly brokerages and funds, which have been reducing their positions [3][11] - As the relative value of long-term bonds improves, institutional investors such as banks and insurance companies are expected to increase their allocations, potentially stabilizing the market [3][11] Valuation and Risk Assessment - The current yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is near the upper limit of a reasonable range, with a fitted central tendency around 38bps and an upper deviation at 41bps, indicating limited room for further increases [5][17] - The report emphasizes that while the negative duration strategy has yielded high returns, it is highly dependent on the continued rise of long-term interest rates. A reversal in this trend could lead to capital losses and interest income losses [3][10] - The bond market is facing multiple pressures, including a strong stock market, rising supply pressures, and limited central bank bond purchases, which could negatively impact bond prices [6][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading platform in new materials, benefiting from high demand in its main business areas [1] - The integration of Zhonghua Lantian has significantly enhanced the company's upstream fluorochemical supply chain, leading to a historical high in net profit for Q3 2025 [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to drive substantial growth, with the company poised to capitalize on this trend as a key supplier of aerospace materials [3] - The company is a leader in electronic-grade PTFE, with potential growth in high-frequency and high-speed resin markets [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 14,523 million in 2023 to 22,436 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 60.2% in 2023 followed by a decline of 3.8% in 2024 [5] - Net profit is expected to rise from 1,183 million in 2023 to 3,206 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 72.6% in 2025 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.92 in 2023 to 2.49 in 2027 [5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 38.8 in 2023 to 14.3 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company has signed a non-binding letter of intent for the acquisition of 100% equity in Best Formulations PC LLC (BFPC), which is expected to optimize its U.S. business structure and enhance overall profitability [1] - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to leverage international capital markets to accelerate its global expansion and diversify its capital operations [2] - The introduction of AI nutritionists and the JsRight precision nutrition brand is a strategic move to tap into the growing demand for personalized nutrition, aligning with consumer trends towards evidence-based health solutions [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.557 billion, 5.021 billion, and 5.539 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of 8.2%, 10.2%, and 10.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is forecasted to be 3.07 billion, 4.07 billion, and 5.00 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.5%, +32.5%, and +22.8% [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 25, 19, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from different regions is as follows: Mainland China 8.2 million, Americas 7.6 million, Europe 3.6 million, and other regions 1.0 million, accounting for 40.1%, 37.2%, 17.6%, and 5.1% of total revenue respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating has been upgraded to "Overweight" [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the coal market requires a "black swan" event to stimulate coal prices, with a focus on the exit of domestic capacity increases as a critical factor [2] - The report highlights the tightening of regulations in Indonesia, which could lead to reduced exports and support coal prices [3] - The report notes that the coal price has started to rebound due to increased daily consumption and cost support [31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3818.02 points, up 6.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking 7th in the CITIC sector performance [73] Key Events - Since September 2021, over 500 million tons of coal production capacity have been added, which must be replaced by the end of 2025 to avoid risks of revocation of approvals [2] - The report indicates that the domestic coal market's supply-demand imbalance could be reversed if the exit of increased capacity is implemented [2] International Market Focus - Indonesia's new regulations aim to reduce production and increase domestic consumption, which could lead to a decrease in exports and support coal prices [3] - The report mentions that Indonesia's coal consumption is expected to grow by 9% in 2024, reaching 247 million tons, with significant consumption from the mining and power sectors [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the implementation of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand will positively impact the coal industry [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The C-REITs market has shown positive sentiment due to favorable policies, with the C-REITs total return index rising by 1.89% this week [1][9] - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 223.34 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [2][11] - The report identifies three main investment strategies: focusing on high-quality undervalued projects, recognizing the market's acceptance of weak-cycle assets like affordable housing, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [3] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The C-REITs total return index increased by 1.89%, closing at 1028.9 points, while the C-REITs index rose by 1.86%, closing at 793 points [1][9] - Year-to-date, the C-REITs total return index has also increased by 1.89% [1][9] C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has experienced an overall upward trend, with 72 out of 78 listed REITs rising, averaging a weekly increase of 2.52% [2][11] - The best-performing sectors include municipal water conservancy and data centers, while affordable housing and ecological protection sectors saw smaller gains [2][11] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (9.6%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.5%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REIT (1.8) and the lowest being China Communications Construction REIT (0.7) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector saw a 1.89% increase from January 5 to January 9, 2026, with cement up 1.62%, glass manufacturing up 3.10%, fiberglass manufacturing up 0.75%, and renovation materials up 2.57% [13] - The People's Bank of China emphasized promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key monetary policy considerations [13] - Local government bond issuance decreased significantly in December 2025, indicating potential easing of fiscal pressure and opportunities for municipal engineering projects [13] - The supply-demand imbalance in float glass is expected to ease due to self-regulated production cuts by photovoltaic glass manufacturers [13] - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased efforts in staggered production halts [13] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the national cement price index was 349.52 CNY/ton, down 0.58% week-on-week, with cement output at 2.7175 million tons, down 4.55% [2] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 43.53%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The overall recovery in cement demand is contingent on the rollout of funding for major infrastructure projects and stabilization in the real estate market [2] Glass Industry Tracking - As of January 8, 2026, the average price of float glass was 1121.92 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.06% week-on-week [3] - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces was 51.95 million weight boxes, down 183 thousand from the previous week [3] - The market is expected to see price fluctuations due to changes in supply-side dynamics [3] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with no significant changes in supply or demand [6] - The average price of electronic yarn G75 increased by 1.79% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in high-end product demand [6] Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials continues to show signs of weak recovery, with fluctuations in upstream raw material prices [7] - The price of carbon fiber remained stable, with production costs slightly decreasing, although many companies are still operating at a loss [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Yao Pi Glass (Buy) with projected EPS growth from 0.12 CNY in 2024 to 0.27 CNY in 2027 [8] - Yinlong Co. (Buy) with projected EPS growth from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 0.75 CNY in 2027 [8] - Puhua Co. (Buy) with projected EPS growth from 0.12 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2027 [8] - San Ke Tree (Buy) with projected EPS growth from 0.45 CNY in 2024 to 2.20 CNY in 2027 [8] - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) with projected EPS growth from 2.14 CNY in 2024 to 2.34 CNY in 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for FY2026 [9][30]. Core Insights - Fast Retailing's FY2026 Q1 results exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 14.8% to 1,027.7 billion JPY, operating profit up 31% to 205.6 billion JPY, and net profit rising 11.7% to 147.4 billion JPY. The company has revised its FY2026 earnings forecast, expecting revenue growth of 11.7% to 3,800 billion JPY and operating profit growth of 17.9% to 650 billion JPY [1][12]. - The sports footwear and apparel sector shows strong resilience amid a volatile environment, with long-term growth potential. Recommended stocks include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with current PE ratios of 14 and 18, respectively [3][18]. - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see improved orders in 2026, with recommendations for Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which are entering a capacity release cycle [3][30]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Fast Retailing's FY2026 Q1 report shows significant growth across all regions, particularly in the Uniqlo division, which has seen revenue and operating profit increases [1][12]. Weekly Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector, recommending high-quality stocks such as Anta Sports and Li Ning, while also highlighting the potential for recovery in manufacturing stocks like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [3][18]. Weekly Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the textile manufacturing sector up 2.9% and brand apparel up 2.88% [22]. Recent Reports - The report anticipates stable retail demand in 2025, with a focus on the performance of key companies in the textile and apparel sector [27][28]. Key Company Announcements - The report includes updates on share buybacks and other corporate actions from companies like Jian Sheng Group, indicating ongoing strategic financial management [31]. Industry News - ASICS and FILA have launched new marketing campaigns, reflecting the industry's focus on brand engagement and consumer connection [32]. Raw Material Trends - Cotton prices have shown a year-on-year increase, with domestic cotton prices higher than international prices, indicating potential cost pressures for manufacturers [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the IDC sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [5][10][24]. Core Insights - The IDC market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, driven by marginal improvements in chip supply and the explosive demand for domestic AI applications [2][20]. - Major domestic companies like ByteDance are significantly increasing their capital expenditure plans, leading to a resurgence in data center bidding activities [1][19]. - The release of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform, "Rubin," is set to redefine hardware standards for high-power, fully liquid-cooled data centers, prompting a global technological upgrade in data centers [4][22][26]. Summary by Sections IDC Market Dynamics - The IDC sector is regaining attention as major companies resume bidding for data centers due to improved chip supply and clear capital expenditure plans [3][21]. - The current valuation of the IDC sector is at a bottom range, providing room for recovery as the national integrated computing network accelerates its systematic construction [3][21]. Supply Chain and AI Applications - The easing of external chip restrictions has allowed internet giants to restart data center bidding, with expectations of improved supply from late 2025 [2][20]. - Continuous iterations of domestic large models are creating real and sustained demand for computing power, which is crucial for data center construction [2][20]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on IDC manufacturers such as Dongyangguang, Runze Technology, and Aofei Data, as well as companies in the optical communication and liquid cooling sectors [24][9]. - Key recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, among others, with a focus on the optical module industry and domestic computing supply chain [24][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the stocks of Dongyangguang (600673.SH) and Jingtai Holdings (02228.HK) [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a phase of global resonance, with China's commercial aerospace market expected to grow from 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] - China has applied for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites, indicating a significant expansion in satellite constellations [1] - The focus on 3D printing and upstream materials is crucial for the aerospace sector, particularly in the manufacturing of rocket engines and satellite components [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace market is projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant contributions from various satellite constellation projects [2] - China is actively developing large-scale satellite constellations, with several projects aiming to deploy thousands of satellites [2] Technological Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of 3D printing technology in the aerospace sector, particularly for rocket engines, which can significantly reduce costs and production time [3] - Key materials identified include high-temperature alloys, 3D printing metal powders, and advanced composite materials for satellites [3] Investment Targets - Key investment targets include Dongyangguang and Jingtai Holdings, with projected earnings per share (EPS) increasing significantly from 2024 to 2027 [4] - The report highlights specific companies involved in critical materials and technologies, such as high-modulus carbon fiber and 3D printing materials [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Timing Radar Six-Dimensional Framework **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates multi-dimensional indicators to assess equity market performance, categorizing them into four major dimensions: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Funds & Trends," and "Crowdedness & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within [-1,1] range [1][6][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 21 indicators across liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, funds, technical trends, and crowdedness dimensions [1][6] 2. Aggregate these indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Funds & Trends," and "Crowdedness & Reversal" [1][6] 3. Calculate a composite timing score within the range [-1,1] based on the aggregated indicators [1][6] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, but its effectiveness depends on stable market environments [1][6] Quantitative Factors and Construction Liquidity Factors - **Factor Name**: Monetary Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the direction of monetary policy based on changes in policy rates and short-term market rates [12] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the average change in policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days 2. If the factor > 0, monetary policy is considered loose; if < 0, monetary policy is considered tight [12] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures monetary policy trends [12] - **Factor Name**: Monetary Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates using the "interest rate corridor" concept [15] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 2. Smooth and standardize the deviation using z-score 3. Assign scores: <-1.5 SD = 1 (loose environment), >1.5 SD = -1 (tight environment) [15] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures short-term liquidity deviations effectively [15] - **Factor Name**: Credit Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the transmission of credit from banks to the real economy [18] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use monthly long-term loan data 2. Calculate past 12-month increments and year-over-year changes 3. Compare with three months prior: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1 [18] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into credit transmission trends [18] - **Factor Name**: Credit Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations [21] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = (new RMB loans - median forecast)/forecast SD 2. Assign scores: >1.5 SD = 1 (credit exceeds expectations), <-1.5 SD = -1 (credit falls short) [21] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures unexpected credit changes effectively [21] Economic Factors - **Factor Name**: Growth Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data to assess economic growth trends [23] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use PMI data (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, Caixin manufacturing) 2. Calculate past 12-month averages and year-over-year changes 3. Compare with three months prior: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1 [23] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects economic growth trends effectively [23] - **Factor Name**: Growth Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations [26] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = (PMI - median forecast)/forecast SD 2. Assign scores: >1.5 SD = 1 (growth exceeds expectations), <-1.5 SD = -1 (growth falls short) [26] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures unexpected economic growth changes effectively [26] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses inflation trends based on CPI and PPI data [28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute inflation direction = 0.5 × smoothed CPI YoY + 0.5 × raw PPI YoY 2. Compare with three months prior: downward trend = 1, upward trend = -1 [28] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects inflation trends effectively [28] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation indicators significantly exceed or fall short of expectations [30] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute deviation = (CPI/PPI - median forecast)/forecast SD 2. Assign scores: <-1.5 SD = 1 (inflation falls short), >1.5 SD = -1 (inflation exceeds expectations) [30] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures unexpected inflation changes effectively [30] Valuation Factors - **Factor Name**: Shiller ERP **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjusts earnings for inflation to assess market valuation [31] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute Shiller PE = average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past six years 2. Calculate Shiller ERP = 1/Shiller PE - 10-year bond yield 3. Standardize using z-score over the past six years [31] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust valuation metric [31] - **Factor Name**: PB **Factor Construction Idea**: Standardizes PB to assess market valuation [35] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute PB × (-1) 2. Standardize using z-score over the past six years 3. Truncate at ±1.5 SD and normalize to ±1 range [35] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures valuation trends [35] - **Factor Name**: AIAE **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market-wide equity allocation and risk appetite [37] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute AIAE = total equity market cap/(total equity market cap + total debt) 2. Multiply by (-1) and standardize using z-score over the past six years [37] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures market risk appetite effectively [37] Funds Factors - **Factor Name**: Margin Trading Increment **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures market leverage trends [40] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute margin balance - short balance 2. Compare 120-day average increment with 240-day average increment: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1 [40] **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects leverage trends effectively [40] - **Factor Name**: Turnover Trend **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures market activity and liquidity [43] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute log turnover moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1 2. Assign scores: max(10/30/60) = 1, min(10/30/60) = -1 [43] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures market activity effectively [43] - **Factor Name**: China Sovereign CDS Spread **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects foreign investors' sentiment toward China's credit risk [47] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute smoothed CDS spread 20-day difference 2. Assign scores: <0 = 1 (positive sentiment), >0 = -1 (negative sentiment) [47] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures foreign sentiment effectively [47] - **Factor Name**: Overseas Risk Aversion Index **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects global market risk appetite [49] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute smoothed risk aversion index 20-day difference 2. Assign scores: <0 = 1 (positive sentiment), >0 = -1 (negative sentiment) [49] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures global risk appetite effectively [49] Technical Factors - **Factor Name**: Price Trend **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures market trend direction and strength [52] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1 2. Assign scores: >0 = 1 (upward trend), <0 = -1 (downward trend) 3. Combine trend direction and strength scores [52] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures market trends effectively [52] - **Factor Name**: New Highs and Lows **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects reversal signals based on constituent stocks' highs and lows [54] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute smoothed new lows - new highs