Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the near future [8]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," with regulatory measures aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1]. - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to generate significant demand for engineering and materials, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. - The chemical sector is witnessing a recovery in prices for certain products due to improved supply dynamics, particularly in TDI, organic silicon, and butanone, driven by production shutdowns and maintenance [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a bullish sentiment towards the chemical sector, with specific stocks recommended for purchase based on their expected performance [8]. Regulatory Environment - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need for legal governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated capacity, reinforcing the "anti-involution" trend in the chemical industry [1]. Market Performance - From September 2021 to February 2024, the basic chemical sector index fell by 59.5%, but recent trends show a recovery with a 5.3% increase in the basic chemical index from July 11 to July 25, 2025 [2]. Key Product Insights - TDI prices have surged from 11,000 yuan/ton in early May to 20,000 yuan/ton by July 24, 2025, due to supply constraints from global production issues [2]. - Organic silicon prices increased to 12,500 yuan/ton by July 25, 2025, following a fire incident that affected supply [2]. - Butanone prices rose from 7,900 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton in early July 2025, reflecting improved market conditions [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in AI applications and hardware materials, particularly in companies that are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of the year, fiscal expenditure was front - loaded, while fiscal revenue was weak. The general budget fiscal deficit increased year - on - year, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. In June, the growth rates of general public budget revenue and expenditure both declined, while those of government - funded revenue and expenditure increased significantly. In the second half of the year, the intensity of fiscal expenditure is expected to decline, and policy - based financial instruments are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, while other incremental fiscal policies may need to wait [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Fiscal Operation - **Revenue and Expenditure Growth**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, remaining negative. The year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 8.9%, indicating front - loaded expenditure. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 2.8% and 17.6% respectively, showing marginal improvement [9]. - **Budget Completion**: Compared with the annual budget, the revenue side fell short of expectations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue was - 0.3% (the annual budget was + 0.1%), mainly due to the actual - 1.2% growth of tax revenue (the annual budget was + 3.7%) and the 3.7% growth of non - tax revenue (the annual budget was - 14.2%). The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of government bond fund revenue was - 2.4%, and it was still challenging to achieve the 0.7% annual budget growth. On the expenditure side, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.4%, slightly lower than the 4.4% annual budget growth. The growth rate of government - funded expenditure was 30%, slightly lower than the 23.1% annual budget growth, and its sustainability needs further observation [1][11]. - **Deficit and Debt**: The general budget fiscal deficit in the first half of the year was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. Assuming a 4% nominal GDP growth this year, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit rate from January to June was 3.7%, at a relatively high level compared with previous years, similar to 2022, indicating strong support from debt income for fiscal expenditure. The issuance of general treasury bonds, replacement special bonds, and special treasury bonds was front - loaded, and the issuance of special bonds was neutral with an accelerating trend since the end of June [1][2][15]. 2. June Fiscal Data Review - **Revenue Side**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue turned negative (- 0.3%), but the structure improved. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Among taxes, personal income tax, domestic VAT, and securities trading stamp duty had relatively high growth rates. The year - on - year growth rate of government - funded revenue was 20.8%, a significant improvement, but its sustainability may be weak due to the continued weak growth of real estate investment [3][22][27]. - **Expenditure Side**: The expenditure intensity of the general public budget decreased, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.38%. The year - on - year growth rate of government - funded expenditure increased significantly to 79.2%, mainly due to the improvement of government - funded revenue in June and the impact of the issuance of special treasury bonds since April. Structurally, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, while expenditure on science and technology and social security had relatively high growth rates [3][30]. 3. Outlook for the Second - half Fiscal Situation - **Expenditure Intensity**: The intensity of fiscal expenditure is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The net financing scale of government bonds is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the net financing of local bonds in the third and fourth quarters will be 1.7 trillion yuan and 537.4 billion yuan respectively, and that of treasury bonds will be 1.6 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan respectively. The net financing of government bonds in the third and fourth quarters will be 3.3 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan respectively, with a significant year - on - year decrease, which may drag down the year - on - year growth of fiscal expenditure. In addition, the scale of special bonds for project expenditure is also expected to decline in the second half of the year [4][34]. - **Policy Expectations**: The third quarter may enter a policy observation period. Policy - based financial instruments are expected to be introduced, but the timing is uncertain. Other incremental fiscal policies may need to wait until after the introduction of policy - based financial instruments or when the domestic economy weakens [5][41].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Index Enhanced Portfolio (CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to generate excess returns relative to the CSI 500 index by leveraging quantitative strategies and factor-based stock selection [48] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio is constructed based on a strategy model that selects stocks with favorable factor exposures - The portfolio's holdings and weights are optimized to achieve the desired exposure to selected factors while managing risk and tracking error relative to the CSI 500 index [52] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated significant excess returns over the CSI 500 index since 2020, though it experienced underperformance in the most recent week [48][50] 2. Model Name: Index Enhanced Portfolio (CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio) - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio, this model seeks to outperform the CSI 300 index through quantitative strategies and factor-based optimization [55] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio is constructed using a strategy model that emphasizes stocks with favorable factor exposures - Holdings and weights are optimized to balance factor exposure, risk, and tracking error relative to the CSI 300 index [58] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved consistent excess returns over the CSI 300 index since 2020, despite underperforming in the most recent week [55][56] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 3.04% [48] - **Excess Return (Relative to CSI 500 Index)**: -0.24% [48] - **Cumulative Excess Return (2020 to Present)**: 49.91% [48] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -4.99% [48] 2. CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 1.33% [55] - **Excess Return (Relative to CSI 300 Index)**: -0.36% [55] - **Cumulative Excess Return (2020 to Present)**: 33.78% [55] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -5.86% [55] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta (BETA) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements, capturing the systematic risk of the stock [60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Beta is calculated using regression analysis of a stock's returns against the market index returns over a specified period - The formula is: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the stock return, $R_m$ is the market return, Cov is covariance, and Var is variance [60] - **Factor Evaluation**: Beta factor exhibited high positive excess returns in the recent week, indicating strong market preference for high-beta stocks [61] 2. Factor Name: Residual Volatility (RESVOL) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock, representing the volatility of its returns unexplained by market movements [60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Residual volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the residuals in a regression of stock returns on market returns - The formula is: $ \text{RESVOL} = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (R_i - \alpha - \beta R_m)^2}{n-2}} $ where $R_i$ is the stock return, $R_m$ is the market return, $\alpha$ and $\beta$ are regression coefficients, and $n$ is the number of observations [60] - **Factor Evaluation**: Residual volatility showed significant negative excess returns in the recent week, indicating a market preference for lower idiosyncratic risk [61] 3. Factor Name: Liquidity (LIQUIDITY) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the ease of trading a stock, often associated with trading volume and bid-ask spreads [60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Liquidity is typically quantified using metrics such as turnover ratio or Amihud illiquidity measure - The formula for Amihud illiquidity is: $ \text{ILLIQ} = \frac{|R_i|}{\text{Volume}_i} $ where $R_i$ is the stock return and Volume is the trading volume [60] - **Factor Evaluation**: Liquidity factor performed poorly in the recent week, reflecting weak market demand for highly liquid stocks [61] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **Weekly Pure Factor Return**: Positive [61] 2. Residual Volatility Factor - **Weekly Pure Factor Return**: Negative [61] 3. Liquidity Factor - **Weekly Pure Factor Return**: Negative [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the media sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The media sector saw a 2.09% increase during the week of July 21-25, driven by market momentum and positive expectations for mid-year reports [11][18]. - The report highlights optimism for the gaming sector and AI applications, particularly focusing on new investment opportunities in AI companionship, education, and toys, as well as companies with strong IP advantages [1][2]. - The issuance of 134 game licenses in July, including 127 domestic and 7 imported games, is expected to invigorate the gaming industry and enhance market diversity [3][21]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector's performance is noted with a 2.09% increase, while other sectors like coal and steel performed even better [11][14]. - The top gainers in the media sector include companies like Happiness Blue Sea and Xinhua Media, with significant weekly increases [14]. Sub-sector Insights - **Gaming**: Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Jibite, and Kaixin Network, with additional focus on Perfect World and Iceberg Network [2][18]. - **AI**: Companies such as Dou Shen Education and Sheng Tian Network are highlighted for their potential in AI applications [2][18]. - **Resource Integration**: Companies like China Vision Media and Guangxi Broadcasting are noted for their resource integration expectations [2][18]. - **State-owned Enterprises**: Companies such as Ciwen Media and Anhui New Media are included in this category [2][18]. - **Education**: Focus on companies like Xueda Education and Fenbi [2][18]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Attention is drawn to Alibaba, Tencent, and Pop Mart, among others, indicating an imminent industry explosion [2][18]. Key Events Review - The report discusses the recent updates in AI models, including the Qwen3 upgrade, which shows significant improvements in various capabilities [4][21]. - The anticipated launch of OpenAI's GPT-5 model is also mentioned, which aims to unify multiple internal technologies [5][21]. Sub-sector Data Tracking - The gaming sector is tracking popular upcoming games, with titles like "Modern Warships" and "Dungeon Castle 4" gaining attention [22]. - The box office for the week of July 21-25 reached approximately 508 million yuan, with top films including "The Lychee of Chang'an" and "Nanjing Photo Studio" [25][26]. - TV series and variety shows are also tracked, with "Morning Snow Record" and "Speed Racer" leading in viewership [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant drop in new installations of solar and wind power in June, suggesting that the supply-side pressure is easing, and green electricity is expected to experience a reversal [2][10]. - The increase in the proportion of renewable energy is expected to stimulate the demand for flexible power generation, benefiting coal-fired power plants and aiding in the absorption of renewable energy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the power sector, particularly coal-fired power companies with resilient quarterly performance and leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of June 30, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. Solar power capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, up 54.2%, and wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, up 22.7% [7][13]. - In June, new installations of solar and wind power dropped significantly, with solar power adding 14.36 GW and wind power adding 5.11 GW, down 78.56% and 21.21% respectively from May [7][13]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours year-on-year to 1504 hours [7][13]. Electricity Demand - In June, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.4%, with the first, second, and third industries, as well as residential electricity consumption, showing growth rates of 8.7%, 2.4%, 7.1%, and 4.9% respectively [7][10]. - The third industry's electricity demand showed resilience, with internet and related services growing by 27.4% year-on-year [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal-fired power companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Baoneng New Energy, as well as leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation like Qingda Environmental Protection [2]. - It also suggests prioritizing undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and companies with high stock project ratios and short-term revenue certainty [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the electricity and public utilities sector index fell by 0.03%, underperforming the broader market [55][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side disturbances are causing lithium prices to continue to break through previous levels. Additionally, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements [1][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase this week, with a 6.7% rise in the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index. Sub-sectors such as small metals and energy metals experienced even higher gains of 14.3% and 12.4%, respectively [10][17]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price strength driven by tariff easing and anti-involution sentiment. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 13.16% year-on-year to 6.6276 million tons in the first half of the year, despite supply constraints [2]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term price fluctuations due to changing sentiments around anti-involution policies. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 43.975 million tons, with minor production adjustments observed [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Continued supply-side disturbances led to a price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 14.3% to 79,000 yuan/ton. Concerns over mining license renewals may tighten supply further [2][28]. - **Silicon Metal**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to market sentiment influenced by anti-involution policies, despite stable demand from downstream industries [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements, but the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged amid ongoing concerns over global monetary credit and public debt [1][37]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - **Shanxi International** (Buy) - **Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining** (Buy) - **Luoyang Molybdenum** (Buy) - **China Hongqiao Group** (Buy) [5].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] - The report highlights that the IP toy industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size reaching 1,742 billion RMB in 2024, and IP toys accounting for over 43% of this market [2][60] - The report emphasizes the strong financial performance of the company, with projected revenue of 630 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.7% [1][26] Group 2 - The report identifies three core competitive advantages of the company: IP resources, channel coverage, and supply chain efficiency [3][36] - The company has established a unique competitive advantage system in the IP derivative market, creating a complete business loop through self-owned and authorized IP operations [3][36] - The report notes that the company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue projected to reach 147.4 million RMB in 2024, a 152% increase year-on-year [1][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the "Guzi Economy," which refers to the economic activities surrounding secondary cultural products, indicating a broad growth potential in this sector [2][36] - The report forecasts that the overall market size for IP derivatives will exceed 3,357 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of over 14% from 2024 to 2029 [60][64] - The report highlights that the core consumer group for IP toys is primarily under 35 years old, showing a strong interest and emotional connection to IP content [64][68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computing power industry, indicating a positive outlook for related companies [6][23]. Core Insights - The computing power industry is experiencing explosive growth driven by unprecedented capital expenditures (Capex) from global tech giants, fueled by the AI wave [19][20]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by President Trump introduces significant tax cuts and incentives that stimulate growth in the computing power sector [5][20]. - The report emphasizes that the computing power sector is at a critical intersection of surging demand and supportive policies, marking the beginning of a "computing power arms race" [6][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies within the computing power and optical communication sectors, including leaders like Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng, as well as various other related firms [12][23]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with the optical communication index performing particularly well [15][18]. Demand Side Analysis - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their Capex to build computing power infrastructure, with Google raising its 2025 Capex target from approximately $75 billion to $85 billion, a record high [21][23]. - Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions to develop superintelligent systems, with substantial increases in its Capex budget [21][23]. Policy Impact - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" reduces the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, permanently easing the tax burden on companies and encouraging reinvestment [5][22]. - The act also restores full expensing for capital investments, enhancing investment returns and accelerating the expansion of the computing power industry [5][22]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the computing power supply chain, including optical communication leaders and companies involved in liquid cooling and edge computing platforms [7][12][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The liquor industry is strengthening its internal capabilities, with companies focusing on management, product, and channel improvements. The industry is currently at a low valuation and is expected to stabilize as sales pressure eases [2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, East Peak Beverage reported impressive mid-year results, while the industry continues to show high growth potential despite intense competition [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in product selection at Sam's Club, emphasizing operational efficiency through local supply chain adjustments [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is in a phase of continuous improvement, with major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu enhancing their management and product offerings. The industry is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn, but valuations are low, suggesting potential for recovery [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment is advised to focus on high-growth products and structural performance, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted. East Peak Beverage's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% [3]. Food Sector - Sam's Club is undergoing a significant product selection transformation, with a shift towards national best-selling items to improve operational efficiency. The report notes that the low-temperature dairy market is performing better than the ambient temperature segment [4][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 25Q2, the scale of convertible bonds held by public - offering funds accounted for 42.44% of the total market value of convertible bonds, with a slight decrease in positions. The convertible bond market showed a net outflow trend due to large - scale bond delistings and an increase in forced redemptions [2][12]. - The market value and proportion of convertible bonds held by first - tier bond funds increased, while those of second - tier bond funds, other funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds decreased [2][13]. - The market value of convertible bonds held by convertible bond funds decreased by 3.42% quarter - on - quarter, but the convertible bond position and leverage ratio increased slightly. The average return of convertible bond funds in 25Q2 was slightly lower than the CSI Convertible Bond Index [4][23][29]. - Public - offering funds significantly increased their positions in industries such as social services, non - bank finance, beauty care, food and beverage, and basic chemicals, and reduced their positions in industries such as steel, banks, and household appliances [6][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Public - Offering Fund Convertible Bond Holdings - In 25Q2, the balance of the convertible bond market was 642.481 billion yuan, a 7.16% decrease from 25Q1. Public - offering funds held convertible bonds worth 272.661 billion yuan, accounting for 42.44% of the total market value of convertible bonds, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from 25Q1. The position of public - offering funds in convertible bonds was 0.73%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decrease from 25Q1 [2][12]. - First - tier bond funds increased their holdings of convertible bonds by 6517 million yuan (+3.56%), while second - tier bond funds decreased their holdings by 7933 million yuan (-1.06%), other funds by 1991 million yuan (-0.55%), partial - debt hybrid funds by 1969 million yuan (-0.38%), flexible allocation funds by 1215 million yuan (-0.29%), and convertible bond funds by 3022 million yuan (+0.57%) [2][13]. - As of 25Q2, there were 60 public - offering funds (excluding convertible bond funds) with a convertible bond market value of over 1 billion yuan, with a total market value of 170.987 billion yuan, a 3.41% decrease from 25Q1, accounting for 62.71% of the market value of public - offering funds investing in convertible bonds. There were 311 public - offering funds (excluding convertible bond funds) with a convertible bond market value of over 100 million yuan, with a total market value of 249.435 billion yuan, a 3.30% decrease from 25Q1, accounting for 91.48% of the market value of public - offering funds investing in convertible bonds [3][18]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Fund Convertible Bond Holdings - As of 25Q2, there were 40 convertible bond funds, holding convertible bonds worth 8.5233 billion yuan, a decrease of 302.2 million yuan from 2025Q1, a 3.42% quarter - on - quarter decrease [4][23]. - The convertible bond position of convertible bond funds increased from 84.49% in 25Q1 to 84.99%, a 0.50 - percentage - point increase. The leverage ratio increased from 137% to 142%, a 5 - percentage - point increase [4][26]. - In 25Q2, the average annualized return of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was 17.32%, and the average annualized return of convertible bond funds was 15.90%. There were 11 convertible bond funds that outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index, with a winning rate of 27.5%; 15 outperformed the convertible bond fund index, with a winning rate of 37.5% [5][29]. - Public - offering funds significantly increased their positions in social services, non - bank finance, beauty care, food and beverage, basic chemicals, and other industries. Industries such as steel, banks, and household appliances saw a significant decrease in the market value of public - offering fund holdings in 25Q2 [6][35]. - The top five heavy - position convertible bonds of convertible bond funds were Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds, Shanghai United Bank Convertible Bonds, 25 Treasury Bond 01, Shanghai Pufa Bank Convertible Bonds, and Chongqing Bank Convertible Bonds [6][38].