Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the industrial automation instrumentation sector, with a comprehensive product range and advanced technology that meets domestic and some international standards [6][7]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the domestic instrumentation market, driven by the trend of domestic substitution and increasing demand for automation in various industries [6][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing capital expenditure in the process industries, particularly in oil, chemical, and metallurgy sectors [8][9]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million) for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 7,592, 7,666, 8,304, and 9,131 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.4%, 1.0%, 8.3%, and 10.0% [2]. - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million) for the same years are 778, 795, 915, and 1,056, with growth rates of 4.6%, 2.1%, 15.2%, and 15.4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.52, 1.55, 1.78, and 2.06 for the years 2024A to 2027E [2]. Company Overview - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with its main shareholder being the Four Link Group, and is transitioning control to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [20][21]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a steady increase in R&D expenditure from 282 million in 2020 to 535 million in 2024, reflecting a commitment to innovation and technology advancement [35][36]. Industry Analysis - The industrial automation instrumentation market in China is characterized by a wide application range, high technical barriers, and a low concentration of industry players [40][41]. - The market for industrial automation instruments has shown consistent growth, with revenues surpassing 1 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2019 to 2024 [43][44]. - The report identifies significant opportunities for domestic brands to increase their market share in the face of foreign competition, particularly in key product categories such as control valves, flow meters, temperature instruments, and pressure transmitters [50][55][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][15]. Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's sales in July were under pressure due to the off-season, but the company is expected to benefit from its high-end product strategy and global expansion efforts [5][6]. - The report notes a total sales volume of 344,000 units in July, with a year-on-year increase of 1% but a month-on-month decrease of 10% [5]. - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings and expanding its global footprint, with significant growth in overseas sales, which increased by 169% year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 777.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,218.4 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29% [5][6]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 67.1 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 34% [5][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 7.36 CNY in 2027 [5][6]. Sales and Market Performance - The report indicates that BYD's sales volume is expected to reach 5.04 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19% [5][6]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas sales, with a total of 81,000 units sold abroad in July, contributing to a cumulative overseas sales figure of approximately 550,000 units from January to July 2025 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of BYD's high-end product launches and the establishment of manufacturing bases in various countries to support its global strategy [5][6].

Employment Data Insights - July non-farm employment increased by 74,000, below the expected 110,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% from May to July, with hourly wages rising from 3.8% to 3.9% year-on-year[4] - Survey response rates for employment data have declined significantly, with May's response rate at 42.9%, down from 59% pre-pandemic[7] Federal Reserve Insights - The number of dissenting votes in the July Federal Reserve meeting reached the highest level in 32 years, with two members opposing the decision to maintain interest rates[10] - Speculative net short positions on the broad dollar fell to 20,000 contracts, the lowest level in four months, indicating reduced bearish sentiment[13] Inflation Expectations - Despite disappointing employment data, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year CPI swap dropping from 3% to 2.9%[16] - The 5-year CPI swap also decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%, aligning with June's CPI year-on-year figure of 2.7%[16] Market Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is currently at 5.2%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, suggesting potential for valuation uplift[19] - The forward arbitrage return on China's 10-year government bonds is 18 basis points, up 48 basis points from December 2016 levels[22] Currency and Commodity Trends - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -19.4 basis points, indicating a higher cost of dollar financing for offshore institutions[25] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.9, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.2, indicating diverging trends in demand and currency valuation[28] Stock and Bond Performance - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 24.9, below the 16-year average, suggesting a return to mean levels and increasing attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[30]

Group 1: Historical Overview of US Presidential Visits to China - Since Nixon's first visit in 1972, there have been a total of 10 official visits by US presidents to China[1] - Except for Carter and Biden, all US presidents since Nixon have visited China, with Carter's absence attributed to the nascent bilateral relationship and domestic election needs[1] - George W. Bush holds the record for the most visits, totaling 2 official visits, 1 APEC meeting, and 1 attendance at the Beijing Olympics[1] Group 2: Nature of Visits - Only Nixon (1972), Reagan (1984), and Clinton (1998) made dedicated trips to China without other travel arrangements[2] - Most presidential visits since the 21st century have been part of broader Asia-Pacific itineraries, indicating a trend of combined regional travel[2] - Bush's 2001 trip to Shanghai for the APEC summit was not classified as a visit to China by both sides[2] Group 3: Upcoming International Meetings - Significant upcoming international meetings in the Asia-Pacific region include the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia from October 26 to 28, 2025, and the APEC Leaders' Meeting in South Korea from October 28 to November 1, 2025[2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Japan's government bond liquidity has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan government bond liquidity index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels[2] - The relative performance of U.S. cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks is closely tied to forward swap rates linked to interest rates, indicating market optimism about sustained high rates despite expectations of Fed rate cuts[5] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations in Japan[5] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology stocks, reaching the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash and consumer staples[6] - Emerging market sovereign debt and U.S. Treasury yield spreads have narrowed to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of emerging market debt strategies[6] - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship with macroeconomic conditions[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The relative P/E ratios of U.S. and European stock indices are closely linked to the uncertainty of economic policies, with European valuations rising as U.S. policy uncertainty increases[9] - China's 5-year and 1-year interest rate swap spread turned positive in July 2025, reflecting increased investor confidence in inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects[8] - The South African stock index has risen approximately 19% since 2025, driven by increasing gold and platinum prices, outperforming other emerging market indices[13] Group 4: Sentiment and Risk - The SPDR U.S. Dollar ETF's call option volume has been declining, suggesting limited upward momentum for the dollar index in the near future[13] - A significant portion of fund managers (38%) view global trade conflicts as the biggest tail risk, with "shorting the U.S. dollar" identified as the most crowded trade[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the solar industry [6] Core Viewpoints - August silicon material production is expected to increase month-on-month, while module production may see a slight decrease [12][13] - The price of silicon materials has shown a narrowing increase, with N-type recycled material averaging 47,100 CNY/ton, up 0.64% month-on-month, and N-type granular silicon at 44,300 CNY/ton, up 0.68% month-on-month [12][13] - The solar glass inventory has decreased, leading to expectations of price increases for new orders in August [14] Summary by Sections 1. August Production Expectations - Silicon material production is projected to increase by approximately 16% month-on-month, reaching around 125,000 tons [12] - Module production is expected to slightly decline due to cost pressures and cautious sentiment from downstream enterprises [13] 2. Market Review - The industry experienced a 0.46% decline in the comprehensive index, with the electric equipment sector down 2.62% [18] - The top-performing sectors included pharmaceuticals and communications, while real estate and metals faced significant declines [18] 3. Price Trends in the Solar Industry - Silicon material prices: Dense silicon at 44.00 CNY/kg, up 4.76% month-on-month; granular silicon remains stable [42] - Silicon wafer prices: N-type wafers range from 1.20 to 1.55 CNY/piece, with increases of 6.9% to 9.1% month-on-month [42] - Battery prices: TOPCon battery prices increased by 5.6% to 7.4% month-on-month, with current prices at 0.285 to 0.290 CNY/W [47] - Module prices: TOPCon dual-glass modules priced at 0.685 CNY/W, with a slight increase of 0.7% month-on-month [47] - Solar glass prices remain stable, with 3.2mm coated glass priced at 18-19 CNY/m² [55] 4. Industry Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the electric equipment sector is 26x, with the solar equipment sector at 19x [30][33] - The valuation percentile for the electric equipment sector is 25.3%, while the solar equipment sector is at 17.8% [34][39]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: DecompGRU **Model Construction Idea**: The model improves the GRU baseline by introducing two simple de-mean modules to enhance the interaction between temporal and cross-sectional information[14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The DecompGRU model architecture is based on GRU with added de-mean modules for trend decomposition[14] 2. Two versions of the model are trained using different loss functions: IC and weighted MSE[14] 3. The IC-based model and MSE-based model are used to score stocks, and the top 200 stocks are selected for portfolio construction[8][14] **Evaluation**: The model effectively captures temporal and cross-sectional interactions, leading to improved stock selection performance[14] Model Backtesting Results - **DecompGRU Model**: - Cumulative absolute return: 24.54% - Excess return relative to WIND All A equal-weight index: 9.80% - Maximum drawdown: 10.08% - Weekly win rate: 72.22% - Monthly win rate: 100%[10] - **ETF Rotation Portfolio (Based on DecompGRU Scores)**: - Cumulative absolute return: 12.97% - Excess return relative to WIND ETF index: 8.65% - Maximum drawdown: 6.16% - Weekly win rate: 68.42% - Monthly win rate: 75%[12] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Heat Indicator **Factor Construction Idea**: The indicator aggregates stock-level attention metrics (views, favorites, clicks) to represent market sentiment at broader levels (indices, industries, concepts)[17][18] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the sum of views, favorites, and clicks for each stock[18] 2. Normalize the sum as a percentage of the total market activity on the same day[18] 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to derive the final indicator, with a range of [0, 10,000][18] **Evaluation**: The factor serves as a proxy for sentiment-driven mispricing, particularly effective at the stock level[18] Factor Backtesting Results - **Broad Index Heat Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized return since 2017: 8.74% - Maximum drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 YTD return: 18.8% - Benchmark return: 17.1%[27] - **Concept Heat BOTTOM Portfolio**: - Annualized return: 15.71% - Maximum drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 YTD return: 27%[44] Additional Observations - **Broad Index Heat Changes**: - Largest increase: CSI 500 (+10.21%) - Largest decrease: CSI 2000 (-6.02%)[27][29] - **Industry Heat Changes**: - Top 5 positive changes: Building Materials (+83.5%), Building Decoration, Social Services, Steel, Food & Beverage - Top 5 negative changes: Light Manufacturing (-32.5%), Textile & Apparel, Automotive, Real Estate, Utilities[38] - **Concept Heat Changes**: - Top 5 concepts: Dairy (+233.5%), Football (+194.9%), NMN (+115), Short Drama Games (+113.6%), Rent-Sale Rights (+109.6)[39][47][48]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" with a target price of 80 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in the electric two-wheeler segment, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 11.74 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 76.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.24 billion CNY, up 108.5% year-on-year [2][8]. - The performance in Q2 2025 also exceeded expectations, with revenue of 6.63 billion CNY, a 61.5% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 790 million CNY, a 70.8% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The electric two-wheeler business is entering a phase of performance realization, supported by rapid channel expansion and a strong product lineup targeting young consumers [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 20.02 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.0% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 2.05 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 89.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 28.50 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 31.0% in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.8%, both showing year-on-year increases [8]. Business Performance - The electric two-wheeler segment generated revenue of 3.96 billion CNY in Q2 2025, marking an 80.6% increase year-on-year, driven by store expansion and high-end product sales [8]. - The self-branded retail scooter segment achieved revenue of 930 million CNY, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, supported by industry growth and strong product competitiveness [8]. - The company’s flagship lawn mower product line has received positive recognition in overseas markets, indicating potential for future growth [8].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融行业数据周报（20250728-20250801） 推荐（维持） 保险板块跑赢大盘，市场活跃度边际下滑 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 37.10 | 4.87 | 4.99 | 5.10 | 7.61 | 7.44 | 7.28 | 1.08 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 40.74 | 3.09 | 3.19 | 3.25 | 13.17 | 12.79 | 12.54 | 2.25 | 推荐 | | 广发证券 | 19.34 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1.68 | 13.36 | 12.46 | 11.50 | 1.17 | 推荐 | | 中信证券 | 28.75 | 1.82 | ...

Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - In August, the focus will be on the verification of policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery[1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to lead to moderate price recovery, although short-term trends remain uncertain[1] - External factors indicate a potential 90-day extension of the exemption period, with reduced uncertainty in tariff policies, but the downward trend in exports is expected to continue[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that August is a month with potential liquidity fluctuations, but risks are limited under current monetary policy targets[2] - The liquidity gap in August is projected to be around 1.8 trillion, with a central tendency likely to remain around 1.5%[2] - The supply of government bonds is expected to accelerate, with net financing projected between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion[3] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Demand for bonds may weaken due to increased supply and limited institutional buying power, with a supply-demand index for August expected to be at 59%, significantly lower than the second quarter average[3] - The market is likely to experience structural pressure due to the imbalance between supply and demand[3] Group 4: Market Strategy - The bond market is entering the second phase of a "three-step" strategy, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%[3] - Investors are advised to be flexible and consider timely profit-taking in response to key market events and policy announcements[3]