Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [28]. Core Insights - The total amount raised through IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market from January to July 2025 has exceeded the total for each year from 2022 to 2024, with a total of HKD 127.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 604% [2]. - In the A-share market, the number of IPO applications accelerated significantly, with 148 companies applying in June 2025, accounting for 84% of the total for January to July [3]. - The reactivation of the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the introduction of the third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market are expected to broaden financing channels for unprofitable technology companies, thereby accelerating the IPO process and increasing the scale of equity financing in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections IPO Market Performance - In the Hong Kong market, 52 new stocks were listed from January to July 2025, marking a 30% year-on-year increase [2]. - The significant fundraising success is highlighted by the listing of CATL, which raised HKD 41 billion, accounting for 32.1% of the total fundraising amount [2]. A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share IPO acceptance rate saw a notable increase in June 2025, with 148 companies applying compared to only 29 in June 2024 [3]. - The concentration of applications in June is attributed to the financial reporting deadline, prompting many companies to submit their applications before June 30 [3]. Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Key companies in the industry, such as GF Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, have been rated as "Recommended" with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 estimated at CNY 1.45, CNY 1.82, and CNY 1.91 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are projected to be 13.36, 15.76, and 10.38 for 2025, indicating favorable valuations [5]. Market Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is reported at 42.8%, with a relative performance of 24.3% compared to the benchmark [7]. - As of August 1, 2025, the PE TTM valuation for the brokerage sector stands at 21.21x, which is at the 50.5% percentile over the past five years [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Heli [1] Core Views - The successful completion of the first material transport by the 2-ton eVTOL from the offshore platform marks a significant milestone for low-altitude logistics applications, indicating potential for scalable use [7] - The strategic cooperation agreement between CITIC Heli, CITIC Jinzu, and Fengfei Aviation includes an intention to purchase 100 large eVTOL aircraft, which enhances the company's growth prospects in the eVTOL sector [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for CITIC Heli are as follows: - 2024: 2,163 million - 2025: 2,378 million - 2026: 2,634 million - 2027: 2,923 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9.8% for 2024, 9.9% for 2025, 10.8% for 2026, and 11.0% for 2027 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2024: 303 million - 2025: 360 million - 2026: 400 million - 2027: 436 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be 26.8% in 2024, 18.7% in 2025, 11.1% in 2026, and 9.0% in 2027 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2024: 0.39 - 2025: 0.46 - 2026: 0.52 - 2027: 0.56 [3] Company Data - Total shares outstanding: 77,577.01 million - Total market capitalization: 170.90 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 22.85% - Book value per share: 6.98 [4]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The State Council announced the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy on July 31, 2023[2] - At least three regions, including Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hangzhou's Yuhang District, have initiated personal consumption loan interest subsidies since 2024[2] Group 2: Subsidy Details - Subsidy standards are generally around 1.5%, with Sichuan at 1.5%, Chongqing initially at 1.5% (later raised to 2%), and Yuhang District not exceeding 1.5%[4][13] - The current market consumption loan rates are above 3%, with few options below this threshold[4][13] Group 3: Funding and Process - Funding primarily comes from local government finances, with Sichuan's subsidy shared at an 80:20 ratio between provincial and municipal levels[5][15] - The process involves residents signing loan contracts, submitting materials for subsidy applications, and undergoing multiple levels of review[4][14][16] Group 4: Impact Assessment - As of April 2025, Sichuan has disbursed nearly 60 million yuan in subsidies, impacting over 40 billion yuan in consumption loans and benefiting approximately 27,000 individuals[7][17] - The net increase in personal consumption loans in Sichuan for 2024 was 1,335 billion yuan, with the subsidy effect estimated at around 3%[7][17]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, marking an increase of 0.52 percentage points[2] - The land premium rate increased to 9% for the week ending July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June[11] Consumer Trends - Subway ridership in 27 cities averaged 81.53 million daily in July, roughly unchanged from last year, while domestic flight numbers increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 14,700 flights in early August[9] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 5% year-on-year as of July 27, down from 17% previously, indicating a slowdown in durable goods consumption[9] Trade and Shipping - Port container throughput fell by 6.5% week-on-week as of July 27, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.6%[24] - U.S. imports showed a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 20.5% in late July, and imports from China decreased by 25.6%[25] Commodity Prices - Prices for upstream photovoltaic materials and lithium carbonate have significantly dropped, with rebar prices down by 2.9% and lithium carbonate futures down by 13.7%[3] - The South China Glass Index fell by 19.1%, indicating a broader decline in commodity prices amid reduced "involution" sentiment[41] Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance reached 2.82 trillion yuan, achieving 64% of the annual target, faster than the previous year[5] - The Ministry of Finance reported six cases of local government hidden debt, emphasizing the need to manage and mitigate hidden debt risks[53]

Group 1 - The report indicates that August marks the second phase of the "three-step" strategy for the bond market, with a focus on timely adjustments and profit-taking opportunities [6][5][4] - The fundamental outlook for August suggests a verification period for policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery [15][16][17] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to influence pricing and production, although short-term trends remain uncertain [21][22][25] Group 2 - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain supportive, with the central bank's actions likely to mitigate potential funding disruptions during the high payment month of August [31][32][38] - Historical data shows that August typically experiences significant government bond issuance, which may lead to increased net financing [40][41] - The supply-demand structure in the bond market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand from institutions [2][3][4] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade negotiations and tariff policies, which may impact market sentiment and bond performance [25][26][27] - The anticipated issuance of new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate investment demand, particularly in infrastructure projects [16][17][19] - The report emphasizes the need for flexible trading strategies, particularly in response to key events and market sentiment shifts [6][5][4]

Macro Policy - The macro policy emphasizes the release of existing policy effects, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The meeting did not reiterate the previous mention of "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" from April[1] - The Ministry of Finance has reported six cases of hidden debt accountability, stressing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task[1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is tightening regarding debt management, with a focus on actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts[2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strict accountability for those responsible for hidden debts, reinforcing the crackdown on illegal activities related to new hidden debts[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has not mentioned "timely interest rate cuts" but emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and promoting a decline in overall financing costs[3] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting service consumption and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, and healthcare sectors[4] - Investment strategies include high-quality promotion of "two重" construction and the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance investment returns[4] Market Competition - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, with a focus on regulating chaotic competition among enterprises[5] - Specific measures include conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues[5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

S of In F 证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 进入政策效应观察期——7月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 左观研究 宏观快评 2025年08月03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:陆银波 邮箱:luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360519100003 证券分析师:文若愚 3)对于企业利润与现金流。在政府化债与偿还企业欠款、财政支出规模增加、 "反内卷"下大企业对中小企业账期进行调整、居民消费回暖等因素作用下, 关注企业现金流是否能持续改善(企业存款增速、企业活期存款增速)以及企 业盈利能力是否能保持稳定(如 ROA、ROE 等指标)。这对于改善企业资产 负债表,提升企业的支出意愿(如增加费用支出、提升员工薪酬)帮助较大。 一、物价:PPI环比跌幅或明显收窄 * 预计 7月份 PPI同比从-3.6%回升至-3.5%,PPI 环比约-0.1%,较上月的-0.4% 明显收窄。预计7月份 CPI 同比约-0.1%,CPI 环比约 0.3%。PPI 环比依然为 负,一方面是物价上涨反映到 PPI 上存在一定的时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, with an optimistic outlook for sales and pricing in the second half of the year [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that July marks the end of the off-season, and there is an optimistic expectation for sales volume and pricing in the second half of the year, despite ongoing weak investment sentiment in the automotive sector [1][2]. - The impact of marketing activities and public opinion on high-end brands (priced between 200,000 to 600,000 yuan) is emphasized, indicating that poor execution can significantly affect sales and pricing [2]. Data Tracking - In July, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant year-on-year growth for Xpeng, with deliveries of 37,000 units, a 229.4% increase year-on-year and a 6.1% increase month-on-month. BYD delivered 344,296 units, a 0.6% increase year-on-year but a 10.0% decrease month-on-month. Li Auto's deliveries were 30,731 units, down 39.7% year-on-year and 15.3% month-on-month [4][20]. - Traditional automakers also saw growth, with Geely's sales reaching 236,000 units in June, a 42.1% increase year-on-year. SAIC Motor ranked first with 365,000 units sold, a 21.6% increase year-on-year [4][23]. - The average discount rate in the automotive industry increased slightly to 10.0% in late July, with an average discount amount of 22,311 yuan, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase year-on-year [4][25]. Industry Research 1. **Complete Vehicles**: The report continues to recommend Jianghuai Automobile for its luxury vehicle offerings and strong competitiveness. It also recommends SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors, while suggesting to pay attention to BAIC Blue Valley due to management reforms and the upcoming launch of the S9T model [6]. 2. **Auto Parts**: The report suggests selecting stocks based on low valuations this year and a projected growth rate of over 15% next year, recommending companies like Xingyu Co., Aikodi, and suggesting to watch New Spring Co., Jifeng Co., and Horizon Robotics [6]. 3. **Heavy Trucks**: The report notes a 42% year-on-year increase in heavy truck wholesale in July, with expectations for continued double-digit growth from August to October, recommending Shandong Heavy Industry and Weichai Power for current investments [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 2.11% this week, ranking 16th out of 29 sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, while the automotive index saw declines across various segments, including parts and passenger vehicles [8][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances, with a target price of 33 yuan, corresponding to a 12x PE for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.34 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year to 24.5 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 8.3% year-on-year to 0.95 billion yuan [2][8]. - The external sales continue to grow, with overseas revenue increasing by 12.3% year-on-year, while domestic revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% [8]. - The air conditioning segment reported a revenue of 23.69 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 4.1% year-on-year, although central air conditioning faced a decline of 6.0% due to a weak real estate market [8]. - The washing machine business within the refrigeration and washing segment saw a significant revenue increase of 37.6% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [8]. - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming quarters due to favorable weather conditions and government subsidies, despite facing high base pressure in Q2 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the main revenue is projected at 92.746 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.348 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.0% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is adjusted to 2.68 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][9]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 69.702 billion yuan in 2024A to 84.298 billion yuan in 2027E, indicating a steady increase in financial strength [9].