1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the industry investment rating system, "Recommend" indicates that the industry index is expected to rise more than 5% above the benchmark index in the next 3 - 6 months, "Neutral" means the industry index is expected to move within -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index in the same period, and "Avoid" suggests the industry index is expected to fall more than 5% below the benchmark index [58][62]. 2. Core Views of the Report In the fourth week of June, the real estate sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage, investment and construction demand remained weak, port container throughput increased marginally, and overall economic momentum was slightly stronger than the previous week. In terms of inflation, the decline in pork prices widened while the decline in food prices narrowed. For exports, the increase in CCFI narrowed, SCFI continued to fall, and North American route freight rates continued to decline. In industry, the operating rates mostly rebounded, coal prices rose slightly due to high - temperature weather in summer, and industrial product prices mostly continued to decline. In investment, cement demand was suppressed by rainfall and floods in the South, leading to an expanded decline in cement prices. Regarding real estate, near the end of the quarter, both new and second - hand housing sales increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. For the bond market, the year - on - year increase in port containers in June narrowed and was weaker than the performance in April - May. The "rush to export" momentum weakened marginally, and the export growth rate in June might decline. With the decline in the profit and revenue growth rates of industrial enterprises in May, the necessity of boosting domestic demand increased relatively. The bond market might enter a policy waiting period in July, focusing on the introduction of incremental policies around the Politburo meeting in July [4][39][40]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - related: Food Price Decline Narrows - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.33% week - on - week, and the decline widened. Vegetable prices increased by 0.1% week - on - week, while fruit prices decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.12% and 0.14% respectively week - on - week, and the decline in food prices narrowed [10]. 3.2 Import and Export - related: SCFI Index Continues to Decline - The overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, but the freight rates of ocean routes showed differentiation. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week - on - week, while the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week and continued to weaken. In North America, transport demand remained stable, and market freight rates continued to decline. From June 16th to 22nd, port container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 5.9% and 5.6% week - on - week respectively, ending the decline. However, the year - on - year average of single - week data since June was 2.2% and 0.8% respectively, significantly narrowing compared with May [12]. 3.3 Industry - related: Operating Rates Mostly Rebound, Coal Prices Rise Slightly - The price of thermal coal increased marginally. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.2% week - on - week. Due to high - temperature weather, electricity consumption by residents increased, and downstream power plant loads rose significantly, leading to an increase in coal consumption. At the end of the month, production cuts in coal - producing areas increased, supply tightened, and the peak coal - using season began, driving up coal prices. - The decline in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar decreased by 0.73% week - on - week. In the off - season, supply increased while demand was weak, and steel prices remained weak. - Copper prices increased marginally. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 1.0% respectively week - on - week. The spot market was in an off - season trading situation, and downstream restocking was mainly for rigid demand, limiting the elasticity of copper prices. - The spot trading of glass was dull. The overall price remained in a weak consolidation state, and downstream enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventory [19][24]. 3.4 Investment - related: Real Estate Sales Enter the End - of - Quarter Sprint - The decline in cement prices slightly expanded. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.7% week - on - week. Construction demand was weakened by rainfall in the South and floods in some areas, and cement prices generally declined. - New home sales in 30 cities continued to rise. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 2554,000 square meters, a 41.3% week - on - week increase. Developers concentrated on launching new projects in late June, and new home sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage. - Second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 17 cities was 2208,000 square meters, a 5.3% week - on - week increase [28][34]. 3.5 Consumption: Supply Concerns Eased, Crude Oil Prices Declined - From June 1st to 22nd, the year - on - year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded. The year - on - year increase was 24% (the full - month year - on - year increase in May was 13%), and it increased by 8% compared with the previous month. From June 16th to 22nd, the year - on - year and week - on - week increases were 30% and 42% respectively, continuing to strengthen compared with the previous week. - Crude oil prices declined significantly. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 12.0% and 11.3% respectively week - on - week. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran eased the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were significantly alleviated, suppressing oil prices [35].

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In May, industrial enterprises' profits decreased by 9.0% year-on-year, compared to a previous increase of 2.9%[2] - Revenue growth in May was 0.8%, down from 2.6% in April, indicating a low level of growth[3] - Cumulative revenue growth from January to May was 2.7%, with a projected annual growth of 2.1% for 2024[3] Group 2: Price and Inventory Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to -3.3% in May from -2.7% in April, reflecting declining industrial product prices[2] - As of May, inventory levels increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.9% in the previous month[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Mining sector profits plummeted by 36.7% in May, while manufacturing profits decreased by 4.0%[2] - In the manufacturing sector, upstream revenue fell by 8.82%, midstream by 3.18%, and downstream by 3.9%[2] Group 4: Profit Margin Insights - The overall profit margin in May was 5.33%, down from 5.91% in the same month last year[2] - Midstream manufacturing profit margin dropped to 5.38% in May, down from 5.74% in April, indicating significant volatility[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting basically continued the previous tone. After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the expression of aggregate monetary policy tools was adjusted to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." - In terms of narrow - liquidity, attention remains on capital use efficiency and capital idling. Since the second quarter, exchange - rate pressure has eased, and the constraint on internal - external balance has weakened. The current capital price center has significantly recovered from a level higher than the policy interest rate, and it is expected that the scope for substantial further easing may be limited. - The meeting continued to retain statements related to the long - end yield trend. Recently, the bond market sentiment has strengthened, and leveraged trading has increased. Given that capital prices are unlikely to decline further, it is expected that the long - end yield will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6 - 1.7% in the short term [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting made more positive statements about economic recovery. The assessment of the economic situation in the meeting communique changed from "the economy is generally stable and making progress while maintaining stability" to "the economy shows a positive trend, and social confidence continues to be boosted," affirming more positive factors in economic recovery. However, the assessment of the external environment changed from "weak growth momentum" to "weakening growth momentum" [2][4][5]. 3.2 Policy Tone - The wording in the communique of this monetary policy regular meeting continued the "moderate easing" stance, changing from "choosing the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." The monetary policy setting followed the "moderate easing" statement in the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2024. The meeting communique continued to "strengthen" counter - cyclical adjustment and reiterated better use of the total and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools. After the "dual cuts" in May, it indicates that the policy maintains a loose orientation in terms of quantity to address domestic demand shortages and external uncertainties, but the form and rhythm of monetary policy operations have high flexibility [2][5][6]. 3.3 Narrow Liquidity - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the monetary policy regular meeting has consistently emphasized "preventing capital idling." Although the first - quarter monetary policy report did not mention "capital idling," this monetary policy regular meeting still emphasized it after "smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve capital use efficiency," continuing the statement since the fourth quarter of 2024. Since April, due to trade frictions, the capital price center has significantly loosened. Currently, DR007 has dropped to around 1.5%, suggesting that capital prices are unlikely to decline significantly further, and the capital environment will remain balanced [2][8][9]. 3.4 Exchange - Rate Stabilization - The intensity of the wording was reduced, and the "three resolutes" were no longer mentioned. The Q1 regular meeting mentioned the "three resolutes" regarding the exchange rate: correcting pro - cyclical behavior, dealing with market disruptions, and preventing over - adjustment risks. In Q2, as the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate eased, the relevant statements were removed from the meeting communique, leaving only the statement of "maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate." Since April, the RMB exchange rate has gradually appreciated from a high of around 7.35 to around 7.17. In the short term, due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited, so the policy's wording on "stabilizing the exchange rate" has also been adjusted [2][13][14]. 3.5 Real - Estate Policy - The previous policies were recognized, and the goal was to "consolidate the stable situation," continuing the statement of the previous Politburo meeting. Compared with the Q1 monetary policy regular meeting, the communique for this meeting changed from emphasizing "promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and recover" to "consolidating the stable situation," following the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the end of April and recognizing the effectiveness of the previous round of policies [2][14][15].

Policy Changes - The meeting removed the phrase "combine the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform" and added "place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic circulation" [2] - The monetary policy approach changed from "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasp the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [2] - The statement regarding exchange rates was modified, removing "strengthen market management and resolutely correct market pro-cyclical behavior" [2] Consistent Policy Stance - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing "smooth monetary policy transmission mechanisms and improve fund utilization efficiency" [5] - The focus on the scale of household deposits moving to non-bank institutions is critical for understanding the balance between monetary policy and preventing fund idling [6] Liquidity Injection Methods - Over the past 20 years, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now includes more comprehensive methods like buying government bonds and facilitating stock repurchases [7] - The current liquidity injection aims not only to support commercial banks' credit expansion but also to stabilize the liquidity in stock and bond markets [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the medical industry, particularly the minimally invasive surgery sector, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% for minimally invasive surgeries from 2023 to 2028 [20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advantages of minimally invasive surgery (MIS) over traditional surgery, including reduced patient trauma, lower costs, and faster recovery times, which are driving the growth of this sector [12][15]. - The aging population in China is expected to increase the demand for surgeries, with the number of individuals aged 65 and above projected to rise from 88.21 million in 2000 to 220 million by 2024, representing a growth from 7% to 16% of the total population [15][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the minimally invasive surgery market, noting that China's penetration rate of 44% in 2022 is significantly lower than the United States' 81%, indicating substantial room for improvement [15][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The medical device market for minimally invasive surgical instruments and consumables is projected to grow from 23.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 40.7 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 11.5% [28]. - The report identifies key products in the market, including laparoscopic staplers, surgical sutures, and ultrasonic knives, which are expected to dominate the market share [30]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the market is currently dominated by foreign companies, with domestic firms having significant opportunities for market share growth through local production and innovation [36]. - The report highlights the importance of collective procurement initiatives in accelerating the penetration and localization of surgical instruments, which will benefit domestic manufacturers [39]. Company Focus - 康基医疗 (Kangji Medical) is identified as a leading domestic player in the minimally invasive surgical consumables market, holding a 3.8% market share and expanding its product offerings through partnerships and innovation [43]. - 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray Medical) is also highlighted for its growth in the minimally invasive surgery segment, with a reported growth rate exceeding 30% in this area [44]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a continued increase in the volume of minimally invasive surgeries driven by demographic changes and advancements in surgical technology [20]. - It suggests that the domestic market for minimally invasive surgical instruments will benefit from ongoing policy support and an increasing focus on healthcare quality and efficiency [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic policy aims to support consumption upgrade, with the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds to be issued in July, and a series of financial support measures for consumption [1][11][12] - Fiscal policy emphasizes using proactive policies, implementing incremental policies in a timely manner, and over half of the 500 billion yuan fiscal injection into large banks has been used [2][16][17] - Monetary policy conducts additional operations of repurchase agreements, focuses on non - bank leverage, and continues to pay attention to long - term bond interest rate risks [3][20][21] - Financial regulatory policies include the introduction of risk management measures for banks and restrictions on the dividend levels of insurance [4][24][25] - Real estate policies aim to optimize existing policies and promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market [5][29][30] - In terms of tariff policies, China and the US have further confirmed the framework details of the Geneva economic and trade talks [6][34][35] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Macro - economic Tone - A military parade will be held on September 3rd to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War, showcasing new military achievements [10][15] - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan quota for service consumption and elderly care, and promoting auto loans [11][15] - The suspension of national subsidies in some regions is temporary, and the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July, with a more balanced and sequential plan for fund use [12][15] 2. Fiscal Policy - The government will make full use of proactive fiscal policies, implement existing policies effectively, and introduce incremental policies in a timely manner [16] - The 500 billion yuan fiscal injection into large banks has been more than half used, and Bank of Communications and Bank of China have completed over - 100 billion yuan private placements [17][19] - Many local governments have disclosed the progress of using special bonds to clear arrears to enterprises, with a total of 55.6 billion yuan earmarked for "arrears clearance" and about 146.5 billion yuan including "arrears clearance" in the use of special bond funds [17][18][19] 3. Monetary Policy - The central bank carried out additional operations of 6 - month repurchase agreements, with a total net injection of 20 billion yuan in June, and continued a relatively active MLF operation at the end of the month [20][23] - At the Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor focused on global financial governance and the supervision of non - bank institutions' leverage [20] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will issue a new batch of QDII investment quotas [21][22] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and continued to emphasize long - term bond interest rate risks and preventing capital idling [21][23] 4. Financial Supervision - At the Lujiazui Forum, the chairmen of the CSRC and the financial regulatory authority put forward measures such as setting up a science and technology growth layer on the STAR Market and promoting pilot projects for financial asset investment companies [24][27] - The General Administration of Financial Supervision issued the "Measures for the Market Risk Management of Commercial Banks", and a bank wealth management product participated in offline new - share subscriptions for the first time [25][27][28] - Insurance regulators prohibited the random increase of dividend levels for dividend - paying insurance products, and jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of inclusive finance in the banking and insurance industries [25][26][28] 5. Real Estate Policy - The State Council executive meeting and the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasized promoting the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market and increasing the utilization of existing commercial housing and land [29][33] - Five cities including Shenzhen and Meizhou plan to allow cross - regional housing provident fund withdrawals for home purchases by the end of the year, and Hangzhou has launched a service for direct payment of housing down - payments with provident funds [30][33] - Xi'an has implemented a policy of installment payment for land transfer fees, and Shenzhen has allowed the adjustment of a certain proportion of affordable housing to commercial housing [31][33][34] 6. Tariff Policy - China and the US have further confirmed the framework details of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China will approve the export applications of eligible controlled items according to law, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [6][34][35]

Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors across provinces in 2024 are 0.70 and 0.72, respectively, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and policy support[3] - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on the relationship between economic uncertainty factors and policy factors: 14 provinces with higher economic uncertainty than policy support (48% of national GDP), 16 provinces with lower economic uncertainty (48% of national GDP), and Beijing where both factors are approximately equal[3] - Provinces with economic uncertainty factors lower than policy factors show better GDP growth, averaging 5.1%, compared to 4.76% for those with higher uncertainty[3] Group 2: Real Estate Factor - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP for six major economic provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%[4] - The land finance dependency for major economic provinces is significantly higher, with an average of 41% compared to the national average of 24.3%[4] - Provinces like Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Shandong have land finance dependency exceeding 40%[4] Group 3: Export Factor - The six major economic provinces account for 65% of national exports, significantly higher than their 44% share of national GDP[5] - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern coastal provinces is 28.6%, compared to the national average of 18.8% and much lower ratios for western provinces[5] - Provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong have export-to-GDP ratios of 43.3% and 41.6%, respectively, indicating a strong reliance on exports[5] Group 4: Policy Factor - The total central government subsidies for 2024 are estimated at 11.3 trillion CNY, with major economic provinces receiving only 23.5% of this, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4%[8] - The net financing from local debts and credits for major economic provinces is 40.7%, also below their GDP share of 44.4%[9] - The financial resources allocated to major economic provinces have been declining, with their share of social financing dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024[9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 关税豁免期临近到期，关注贸易格局演变 ——6 月海外月度观察 油价：6 月，国际原油先受中美元首通话提振油需前景，后受中东局势引发 供给担忧双重因素带动下强势上涨至 75.60 美元/桶，随后中东局势缓和，油 价回落至 64.92 美元/桶。 美国就业市场超预期疲软；金融市场流动性紧缩。 债券研究 经济方面，全球制造业景气度收缩，服务业保持高景气度。贸易方面，波罗 的海干散货指数先升后降，5 月前 20 日韩国出口同比跌幅收缩至-2.5%。货 币政策方面，关税政策加剧经济前景的不确定性，主要央行保持谨慎态度。 财政政策方面，德国政府内阁批准 2025 年财政预算草案和 2026 年财政预 算框架。 ❖ 发达经济体：关税冲击经济前景，通胀继续降温 美国经济景气度回落，制造业和服务业景气度均处于收缩区间；劳动力市场 温和走弱，时薪增速超预期；通胀继续降温，关税影响暂未体现；零售销售 继续走弱，消费者支出放缓；房贷利率居高不下以及持续上涨的房价加剧居 民购房负担。英国、日本制造业和服务业景气度分化，欧元区增长乏力。通 胀方面，欧元区、英国通胀降温，日本通胀水平继续处于政策目标上 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 美光科技（MU）FY2025Q3 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 HBM 带动强劲增长，FY25Q3 业绩超预期 会议地点：线上 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 6 月 26 日，美光科技发布 FY25 Q3 报告，并召开业绩说明会。 ❖ 评论： 1. 总 体业 绩 情况 ：FY2025Q3 实现营 收 93.01 亿美元（QoQ+15.5%， YoY+36.6%），高于指引中值（指引中值为 88 亿美元），营收环比增长主要受 益于终端市场增长，其中数据中心收入创纪录，消费者导向的市场也实现强劲 环比增长。FY25Q3 的 Non-gaap 毛利率为 39.0%（QoQ+1.1pct，YoY+10.9pct）， 超过指引区间上限（指引为 36.5%上下浮动 100 个基点），主要得益于 DRAM 和 NAND 价格上涨。FY25Q3 公司 DRAM 收入创下新高，主要得益于 HBM 收入环比增长近 50%。 2. 数据中心市场预期及进展情况：美光 FY25Q3 数据中心 DRAM 收入连续第 四个季度创下新高，得益于 HBM 带来的强劲增长，以及行业领先的高容量 DIMM 和低功耗服务器 DRAM ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 生猪行业 5 月跟踪报告 价格小幅回落，体重延续上行 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 101 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 13,111.51 | 1.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,904.42 | 1.22 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | 8.2% | -3.6% | -16% -3% 10% 22% 24/06 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 2024-06-26~2025-06-26 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《华创农业 5 月白羽肉禽月报：毛鸡、鸡苗价格 保持平 ...