证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业月度数据跟踪报告 3 月辽宁/广东共 1.8GW 海上风机启动招标 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 资料来源： Wind ，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 1 日收盘价 行业研究 电力设备及新能源 2025 年 04 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：黄麟 邮箱：huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080001 证券分析师：吴含 ❑ 招标量：1-3 月风机招标 21.5GW，同比 14.7% | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | PB（倍） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E 2025E | | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 49.81 | 2.82 | 3.21 | | 17.66 | 15.52 | | 3.85 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 14.52 | 1.19 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 供需有待 【宏观快评】 4、固投：预计 1-3 月固投增速为 4.2%。其中，1-3 月房地产投资增速为-10.0%， 制造业投资增速为 9.8%，基建（不含电力）增速为 5.8%。预计 3 月地产销售 面积增速为-8.0%。 5、生产：预计 3 月工增增速为 5.5%左右。 经济飘红，考验仍在——3 月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 ❖ 核心观点：展望 1 季度经济，经济或将顺利实现"开门红"，预计 1 季度 GDP 5.1%左右，超全年目标增速。预计 3 月工增、社零、制造业投资偏强，出口 尚未回落，社融在政府债继续快速发行背景下增速持平于上月，CPI 降幅收 窄。但 2 季度可能仍将面临一些考验，包括物价能否回升、关税冲击下出口会 如何演变、房价能否企稳等。 ❖ 一、1 季度 GDP：预计同比增速 5.1%左右 主要的分项来看：1）对于工业，增速偏高，预计 1 季度同比 5.7%左右。主要 考虑到在"两新"、"抢出口"、"硬科技"的共振影响下，生产偏强。2）对于 金融业，预计增速低于去年四季度的 6.5%，一方面，1 季度股票交易额的增速 低于去年四季度，另一方面，1-2 月的保费收入增 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 黄金"狂想曲" ——五种极端情形下的金价推演 前言 2023 年 12 月，我们发布《金：百年、十年、今年》从定性层面十年维度战略 看多黄金，强调当前黄金所处的时代背景更类似于1785-1800年以及1925-1940 年这两个百年一遇的全球秩序重构时期。2024 年 3 月，我们进一步发布《黄 金的"非寻常"定价》，从定量层面发现过去 20 年间世界黄金协会对黄金价格 的解释度极高三大模型（几乎包含了所有涉及黄金的常见宏观、金融、供需因 子）近两年对黄金价格的解释力下降，说明黄金背后可能有一股"看不见的力 量"。随着伦敦黄金现货价格突破 2900 美元/盎司关口，越来越多的声音担心 黄金价格可能已经超涨。然而面对百年未有之大变局，对于黄金价格的中长期 上涨区间或应该更大胆一点。根据彭博的黄金价格数据，1971-1980 年，黄金 价格从 37 美元/盎司涨到 850 美元/盎司，涨幅超 20 倍；2001-2011 年，黄金 价格从 272 美元/盎司涨到 1900 美元/盎司，也有近 6 倍的增长。当前，全球旧 秩序正逐渐式微，新秩序的建立仍面临诸多挑战，与前两轮类似 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a target price of 7.56 CNY / 5.99 HKD [2][8]. Core Views - ICBC demonstrated strong resilience in net interest margin and stable asset quality, with a slight decrease in non-performing loan ratio to 1.34% and a provision coverage ratio of 214.9% [2][8]. - The bank's total operating income for 2024 was 821.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 365.9 billion CNY, up 0.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights improvements in loan structure, particularly in retail loans, which saw a growth rate of 3.5% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating income (million CNY): 2024: 821,803; 2025E: 828,128; 2026E: 844,278; 2027E: 883,234 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million CNY): 2024: 365,863; 2025E: 368,388; 2026E: 379,648; 2027E: 392,481 [3]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 2024: 1.01; 2025E: 1.02; 2026E: 1.05; 2027E: 1.09 [3]. - Price-to-earnings ratio: 2024: 6.72; 2025E: 6.67; 2026E: 6.47; 2027E: 6.25 [3]. Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - Non-performing loan ratio: 2024: 1.34%; 2025E: 1.33%; 2026E: 1.31%; 2027E: 1.31% [11]. - Provision coverage ratio: 2024: 215%; 2025E: 212%; 2026E: 208%; 2027E: 205% [11]. - The report notes a decrease in asset impairment losses by 16% year-on-year, contributing positively to profits [8]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.8%, 2.0%, and 4.6% respectively, and net profit growth forecasts to 0.7%, 3.1%, and 3.4% respectively [8]. - The bank's valuation is considered undervalued at 0.63x 2025 PB, with a target PB of 0.7x for 2025E [8].

【华创策略】 跨行业均衡布局 ——广发恒生消费 ETF 投资价值分析 证 券 研 究 报 告 消费政策持续加力，静待内需回暖 提振消费政策持续加码 今年两会《政府工作报告》进一步强调"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方 位扩大国内需求"，并就实施提振消费专项行动作出部署，提出要"制定提升 消费能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境专项措施，释放多样化、差异化消费 潜力，推动消费提质升级"。3/16《提振消费专项行动方案》落地，部署七大行 动，全面助力提振消费、扩大内需。此外，从今年特别国债的用途来看，当前 政策端对于消费的重视也在明显增多。 展望牛市下半场，以消费内需代表的核心资产有望迎来估值修复 本轮牛市来自双宽政策下，金融资产再通胀向实物资产再通胀的传导。若经济 基本面出现回暖，下半场市场的进一步上行需要更多空间来容纳更大量的资 金，故前期表现相对滞后的以消费内需为代表的核心资产的估值或将迎来明显 抬升。 恒生消费指数投资价值分析 （一）兼具刚需消费的稳定性与新兴消费的成长性 恒生消费指数从恒生综合指数中筛选市值排名前 50 的消费行业股票，覆盖了 必需消费与非必需消费两大领域，兼具刚需消费的稳定性与新兴消费的成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 43.90 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 2.06 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and a net profit of HKD 428 million, up 31.0% year-on-year [1][8]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to increased customer orders and the appreciation of the US dollar [8]. - The company has a diversified product line with significant growth in functional lenses, which achieved revenue of HKD 760 million, a 32.4% increase year-on-year [8]. - The company is actively expanding into the smart glasses market, collaborating with leading consumer electronics firms, which is expected to drive future growth [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 38.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 20.8%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to HKD 2.57 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.6% [3][11]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is HKD 547 million, reflecting a growth rate of 27.6% [3][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from HKD 1.00 in 2024 to HKD 1.14 in 2025 [3][10]. Product and Market Performance - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that functional lenses accounted for 36.6% of total revenue, standard lenses 44.0%, and custom lenses 19.2% [8]. - The company’s sales volume reached 180 million pieces in 2024, a 12.1% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of HKD 11.6 per piece [8]. - Revenue by region indicates strong performance in mainland China, the Americas, and Asia (excluding mainland China), with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 16.9%, and 37.9% respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.6% to 1.40 billion yuan [2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback of 5.175 million shares, totaling approximately 150 million yuan, and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per share, which represents 65.6% of net profit [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its new business segments while its traditional core business faces pressure [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 24.23 billion yuan, net profit of 1.40 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 26.90 billion yuan, net profit of 1.59 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 29.54 billion yuan, net profit of 1.78 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 32.07 billion yuan, net profit of 1.95 billion yuan [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 1.51 yuan - 2025E: 1.72 yuan - 2026E: 1.93 yuan - 2027E: 2.11 yuan [2][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 18 times, decreasing to 15 times by 2027E [2][8]. Market Performance - The target price for the company's stock is set at 37.2 yuan, with the current price at 31.81 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3]. Business Segments - The traditional core business generated revenue of 9.33 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase of 2.1%. However, the second half of 2024 saw a decline of 2.8% [2]. - The company is actively developing products appealing to younger consumers through IP collaborations and has seen significant growth in its online sales, achieving 1.14 billion yuan in revenue, a 33% increase year-on-year [2]. - The retail segment, including the "Morning Light Life Hall," achieved revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a 10.8% increase, with a total of 779 retail stores nationwide [2]. Conclusion - The report indicates a solid long-term outlook for the company, driven by its core business strengths and growth in new segments, despite short-term challenges in traditional operations [2].

事项：截至 3 月末，共计 21 家上市券商发布 2024 年度报告，归母净利润合 计 1130.8 亿元，同比+14.6%。16 家券商实现归母净利润正增长，自营业务仍 是业绩分化的胜负手，Q4 权益市场反弹带来经纪业务回暖。 轻资产业务上看：①经纪业务净收入合计 759.9 亿元/同比+9.5%，东方证券、 中金公司经纪业务收入下滑，主要系席位、代销净收入下滑，Q4 代理买卖业 务回暖使得全年净收入同比降幅收窄。②投行业务净收入合计 212.1 亿元/同 比-28.1%，股权融资仍呈现收紧态势，17 家券商投行业务收入下滑，约五成降 幅超过 30%。③资管业务净收入合计 354.3 亿元/同比-3.2%，国联民生资管业 务净收入同比+49.0%，预计主要受中融基金并表、国联资管开业的影响。 重资本业务上看：①利息净收入合计 241.3 亿元/同比-13.8%，仅 8 家券商实现 正增。②自营业务收入 1244.4 亿元/同比+27.8%，华林、红塔及南京证券增幅 靠前，分别同比+3417.2%、+198.8%、+139.7%，绝对值上同比+4.0、+7.0、+6.6 亿元，带动净利润分别同比+1014.5 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 不同寻常的 Q2 国债发行计划 线索二：5 月起超长期普通国债发行暂停，或为超长期特别国债发行让位。 ❖ 三、后续政府债供给节奏怎么看？ 1、国债：二季度净融资或为 1.9 万亿，包括 1.1 万亿普通国债和 8000 亿特别 国债。4 月国债到期压力下净融资为 1200 亿，5-6 月或上行至 7000 亿和 1 万 亿；三季度、四季度国债净融资分别为 2.3 万亿和 1 万亿。 2、地方债：二季度净融资或为 1.8 万亿，4-5 月净融资在 7000 亿附近，6 月下 行至 4700 亿，但需要关注后续"自审自发"地区存在落地试点方案以及进一 步提速专项债发行节奏的可能；三季度、四季度地方债净融资或分别为 2 万亿 和 0.7 万亿，净融资高峰期或在 8 月，单月净融资有望接近 1 万亿。 3、政府债：关注 5-6 月、以及 8-9 月的供给压力。二季度净融资为 3.7 万亿， 4 月压力不大，5-6 月净融资或上行至 1.4-1.5 万亿，关注超长期特别国债发行 放量可能，以及央行是否对冲操作；三季度超长期特别国债发行叠加新增专项 债发行"赶进度"，净融资或放量至 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 工控行业 2025 年度投资策略 出海加速、国产化助力、人形孕育新场景 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2024E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 67.71 | 1.80 | 2.16 | 2.58 | 37.60 | 31.53 | 26.29 | 6.51 | 强推 | | 信捷电气 | 60.19 | 1.86 | 2.30 | 2.80 | 32.29 | 26.11 | 21.47 | 3.52 | 强推 | | 伟创电气 | 53.01 | 1.27 | 1.71 | 2.32 | 41.81 | 30.95 | 22.87 | 5.30 | 强推 | 资料来源： Wind ，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 1 日收盘 ...