债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260130 ❖ 市场概况：今日多数行业回调，估值环比压缩 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 140.94 元，环比昨日下降 1.31%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 206.54 元，环比 下降 0.72%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 122.74 元，环比下降 0.75%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 132.62 元，环比下降 1.60%。从转债收盘价分布情况看，130 元以 上高价券个数占比 74.73%，较昨日环比下降 3.13pct；占比变化最大的区间为 120-130（包含 130），占比 19.95%，较昨日上升 3.15pct；收盘价在 100 元以下 的个券有 0 只。价格中位数为 138.96 元，环比昨日下降 1.12%。 转债估值：估值压缩。百元平价拟合转股溢价率为 37.11%，环比昨日下降 1.89pct；整体加权平价为 104.86 元，环比昨日下降 0.91%。偏股型转债溢价率 为 19.62%，环比上升 0.53pct；偏债型转债溢价率为 94.06%，环比上升 2.11pct； 平衡型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 850 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% to 60.7%, with a median estimate of 950 million yuan, reflecting a 45% increase [7]. - The company is well-positioned in the low-altitude economy sector, driven by its dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft [7]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the new Civil Aviation Law, which encourages the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy, providing a strong legal framework for industry growth [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 16,264 million yuan in 2024 to 19,879 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 653 million yuan in 2024 to 1,429 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 50.6% in 2025 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.31 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [2]. Business Performance - The automotive metal parts lightweight business is optimizing its product and customer structure, leading to improved operational efficiency and profitability [7]. - The general aviation aircraft manufacturing segment is experiencing strong order flow and stable operations, with ongoing improvements in high-value model production processes [7]. - The acquisition of Volocopter GmbH is seen as a strategic move to enhance the eVTOL product matrix and accelerate commercialization efforts in the global low-altitude economy market [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 SK 海力士（000660.KS）FY2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 HBM 构筑核心增长动能，25 年营收利润均破 纪录 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 29 日 SK 海力士发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。 公司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 32.8 万亿韩元，同比增长 66%，环比增长 34%；毛利 率为 69%，同比提升 17pct，环比提升 12pct。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：25Q4 营收 32.8 万亿韩元（QoQ +34%，YoY +66%），创下季度 营收新高。毛利率为 69%（QoQ +12pct，YoY +17pct），主要得益于市场对 HBM 和传统服务器内存的需求大幅增长，致使 DRAM 和 NAND 价格的大幅上涨以 及 NAND 位出货量的增长。25Q4 实现净利润 15.2 万亿韩元（QoQ +21%，YoY +90%），净利率为 46%（QoQ -6pct，YoY +5pct）。 2. 终端市场：1）整体需求，DRAM ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 850 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% to 60.7%, with a median estimate of 950 million yuan, reflecting a 45% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) to drive growth, supported by favorable government policies and market conditions [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the automotive lightweight metal parts business and the robust order book in the general aviation aircraft manufacturing sector [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 16,264 million yuan in 2024 to 19,879 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to increase from 653 million yuan in 2024 to 1,429 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 50.6% in 2025 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.31 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 50 times in 2024 to 23 times in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is strategically positioned as a leader in the low-altitude economy, with a focus on expanding its product matrix through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Volocopter, which enhances its eVTOL offerings [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government support for the low-altitude economy, particularly with the new Civil Aviation Law set to take effect in July 2026, which encourages innovation and development in the general aviation sector [7]. - The company is actively developing new aircraft models and enhancing its production capabilities to meet the growing demand in both the general aviation and eVTOL markets [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 SK 海力士（000660.KS）FY2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 HBM 构筑核心增长动能，25 年营收利润均破 纪录 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 29 日 SK 海力士发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。 公司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 32.8 万亿韩元，同比增长 66%，环比增长 34%；毛利 率为 69%，同比提升 17pct，环比提升 12pct。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：25Q4 营收 32.8 万亿韩元（QoQ +34%，YoY +66%），创下季度 营收新高。毛利率为 69%（QoQ +12pct，YoY +17pct），主要得益于市场对 HBM 和传统服务器内存的需求大幅增长，致使 DRAM 和 NAND 价格的大幅上涨以 及 NAND 位出货量的增长。25Q4 实现净利润 15.2 万亿韩元（QoQ +21%，YoY +90%），净利率为 46%（QoQ -6pct，YoY +5pct）。 2. 终端市场：1）整体需求，DRAM ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 ASML（ASML）2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 AI 驱动需求高增，积压在手订单达 388 亿欧元 会议地点：线上 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ASML 发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。公 司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 97.18 亿欧元，同比增长 4.9%，环比增长 29.3%；毛利 率 52.2%，同比提升 0.5pct，环比提升 0.6pct。2025 全年，公司实现营业收入 326.67 亿欧元，同比增长 15.6%；全年毛利率为 52.8%；全年净利润为 96 亿 欧元。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：1）25Q4，公司实现营业收入 97.18 亿欧元（QoQ+29.3%， YoY+4.9%），高于指引中值（指引范围 92-98 亿欧元）；季度毛利率 52.2% （QoQ+0.6pct，YoY+0.5pct），位于指引(51-53%)中位；季度净利润 28.4 亿欧 元，净利率 29.2%。2）2025 年，全年公司实现营业收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the home appliance industry, specifically for white goods, black goods, and two-wheeled vehicles [1]. Core Insights - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks has slightly increased, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. The over-allocation ratio for home appliances is 0.74%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [10][9]. - The report anticipates that the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 will support domestic sales, while leading home appliance companies are expected to accelerate penetration into emerging markets such as Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, leading to steady growth in export revenues [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a Q4 market value accounting for 1.58% of total fund holdings, up by 0.23 percentage points. The number of funds holding white goods stocks has increased by 79 [18][17]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, are expected to benefit from stable performance and high dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [63][64][65]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance Sector - The report indicates a slight recovery in the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14% and an over-allocation ratio of 0.74% [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen a recovery in fund holdings, with a market value of 1.58% of total fund holdings, and an increase in the number of funds holding these stocks [18][17]. - The black goods sector has also experienced a slight increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.22%, up by 0.03 percentage points [28][29]. - The two-wheeled vehicle sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.74%, up by 0.08 percentage points [32][35]. Investment Recommendations - For white goods, the report recommends Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their strong performance and high dividend yields [63]. - In the black goods sector, companies like Hisense Visual and TCL Technology are highlighted for their technological leadership in the MiniLED field [63]. - For two-wheeled vehicles, the report suggests focusing on Ninebot, Aima Technology, and Yadea Holdings, as market demand is expected to concentrate on leading companies [63]. - In the kitchen small appliances sector, companies like Supor, Bear Electric, and Beiding Co. are recommended for their growth potential through brand expansion [63]. - The report also highlights electric tools companies such as Techtronic Industries and Greebo for their expected order growth due to rising market demand [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 101 million to 151 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 68.85% to 53.44% [2]. - The company has introduced a 2026 restricted stock incentive plan, granting 2.2025 million shares at a price of 12.21 yuan per share, covering 85 management and core technical personnel [2]. - The company aims for revenue targets of no less than 50.90 billion yuan, 53.83 billion yuan, and 58.32 billion yuan for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively [2]. - The company plans to dispose of its non-core personal care business, BFPC, and has fully provided for asset impairment of 195 million yuan, which is expected to enhance focus on its core business [8]. - The global nutrition and health food solutions market is projected to grow from 29.4 billion USD in 2024 to 42.4 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to reach 4.533 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 121 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant decline of 62.7% compared to the previous year [10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.39 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 60 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xianle Health, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 101 million to 151 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 68.85% to 53.44% [2]. - The company has introduced a 2026 restricted stock incentive plan, granting 2.2025 million shares at a price of 12.21 yuan per share, covering 85 management and core technical personnel [2]. - The company aims to achieve revenue targets of no less than 50.90 billion yuan, 53.83 billion yuan, and 58.32 billion yuan for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively [2]. - The company has also revised its 2023/2025 equity incentive plans, adjusting revenue targets downwards for 2026 [2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4.211 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.536 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.8% [10]. - The net profit is expected to recover significantly from 121 million yuan in 2025 to 458 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 19.5% [10]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 53.22%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [5]. Market Position - The global nutrition and health solutions market is expected to grow from 29.4 billion USD in 2024 to 42.4 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.6% [11]. - Xianle Health ranks third globally in the nutrition and health food solutions market, holding a 2.0% market share, with notable strengths in gummy and soft capsule segments [9][11]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its strong R&D capabilities and a robust supply chain [9]. Incentive Plans - The 2026 restricted stock incentive plan aims to align management and technical personnel's performance with company growth, focusing on both revenue and profit targets [2]. - The employee stock ownership plan covers up to 12 core management members, with profit targets set at no less than 3.8 billion yuan for 2026 and 4.5 billion yuan for 2027 [2][21].

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in allocation to non-ferrous metals and communications, while reducing allocation to electronics and pharmaceuticals. The top five industries with increased holdings are non-ferrous metals (up 2.1 percentage points), communications (1.8 percentage points), non-bank financials (0.9 percentage points), chemicals (0.8 percentage points), and machinery (0.7 percentage points). The top five industries with reduced holdings are electronics (-1.6 percentage points), pharmaceuticals (-1.6 percentage points), media (-1.2 percentage points), electric new energy (-0.9 percentage points), and computers (-0.8 percentage points) [1][8][12] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme style. The increasing funds focus on growth style, adding positions in industrial metals, military electronics, and photovoltaic equipment, while reducing positions in batteries, digital media, and social networks. Decreasing funds are shifting from growth to value, adding positions in components, liquor, and coal mining, while reducing positions in communication equipment, semiconductors, and passenger vehicles. Adjusting funds show a balanced configuration, adding positions in semiconductors, industrial metals, and insurance, while reducing positions in consumer electronics, batteries, and state-owned banks. Extreme style funds make internal adjustments within their styles, adding communication equipment and renovation materials while reducing consumer electronics and bioproducts [7][15][16] Group 3 - The report highlights that the consensus for selling includes bioproducts, internet e-commerce, consumer electronics, social media, batteries, and digital media, while the consensus for buying includes insurance, securities, chemical products, components, photovoltaic equipment, and industrial metals [15][16][18] Group 4 - The analysis indicates that increasing funds prefer large-cap and high-valuation stocks, while decreasing and adjusting funds focus on both growth and profitability. Extreme growth funds tend to hold small-cap, high-valuation stocks with pressured profitability, while extreme value funds focus on low-valuation, large-cap stocks with low earnings growth [7][18][25]