证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,985 | 5,777 | 5,784 | 5,944 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.1% | -3.5% | 0.1% | 2.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,279 | 1,719 | 1,435 | 1,529 | | 同比增速(%) | 8.7% | 34.4% | -16.5% | 6.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.55 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 0.65 | | 市盈率(倍) | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 2025 | 年 月 日收盘价 10 27 | | 赣粤高速（600269）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 非经大幅增长致 25Q3 业绩同比增长 64.7%， 前三季度业绩同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 780 million yuan, an increase of 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1][8] - New product contributions are driving growth, with the company focusing on the development of new product lines such as the "Light Enjoy" series and jelly wine, which are in the early stages of market penetration. The whiskey business is also progressing, albeit at a slower pace than expected [8][9] - The company is actively managing inventory levels and channel pressures, with cash flow showing an 8.0% increase compared to revenue, indicating a healthy operational resilience [8] Financial Summary - For 2024A, the total revenue is projected at 3.048 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.6%. The net profit is expected to be 719 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year. The EPS for 2024A is estimated at 0.69 yuan [4][15] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 2.4% in 2025E, reaching 3.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 742 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.1% year-on-year. The EPS is projected to rise to 0.71 yuan [4][15] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 70.2%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 20.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]

先抑后扬——20 个领先指标看外需走势 对于明年宏观环境而言，外需好坏至关重要，其直接影响中国出口，也会影响 PPI 的上行动能（《出口价格能带动 PPI 回升吗？——基于历史二者背离复盘 的启示》）。但，当前在关税冲击传导效果以及贸易政策反复摇摆的不确定性下， 对明年出口情况做出预测将变得更加困难，本文尝试从多个逻辑维度出发，寻 找外需的一系列领先指标，以期帮助把握明年出口基准。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 先抑后扬——20 个领先指标看外需走势 核心观点：综合五类外需领先指标的指示来看，全球外需短期（四季度）或面 临调整压力，明年上半年温和回升的概率较高。我们统计的 20 个领先指标中， 能预示到明年数据的有 11 个，其中，7 个指标指示明年 Q1 或整个上半年外需 或趋向回升，1 个指标显示明年 Q1 或趋平、Q2 开启回升，1 个指标显示欧元 区库存周期明年初或震荡，仅有 2 个指标显示明年有回落压力，但都是聚焦于 "局部"的指标，包括行业协会预测电子产业链贸易增速明年微幅下滑，市场 数据预测明年全球汽车销量增速回落。但，需要警惕的是，确实存在外需较大 幅偏高于领先指标当前水平通常指示的中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 33.15 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.781 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.318 billion CNY, up 0.31% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 9.161 billion CNY, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.96% and 23.94%, respectively. The net profit for Q3 was 0.592 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.15% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 28.396 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 1.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.602 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.1%. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.45 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 [4]. - For 2025E, total revenue is estimated at 30.826 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 8.6%. The net profit is projected at 1.867 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.6%. The EPS is expected to rise to 1.69 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 16 [4]. - For 2026E, total revenue is forecasted at 33.137 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.5%. The net profit is expected to reach 2.433 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 30.3%. The EPS is projected at 2.21 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 12 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The company's main segments, including pesticides, fertilizers, specialty chemicals, and organic silicon products, reported revenues of 3.964 billion CNY, 3.244 billion CNY, 3.942 billion CNY, and 2.075 billion CNY, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2025. The year-on-year changes in revenue were -1.0%, +8.2%, -0.7%, and +11.7% [9]. - The sales volume for these segments showed an upward trend, indicating a gradual recovery in downstream demand [9]. Strategic Developments - The company announced plans to acquire Qiaogou Mining, which will increase its phosphate resource reserves from 395 million tons to 580 million tons. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's resource advantages in the phosphate industry [9]. - The company is also advancing several key projects in fine chemicals, which are anticipated to become new profit growth points. These include various production upgrades and expansions in organic silicon and phosphorus-related products [9].

综合金融 2025 年 10 月 28 日 华创证券研究所 产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 11 期（10 月 4 日-10 月 17 日） 节后新发尚未回暖，保险市场结构性转型 银行理财产品： 根据普益标准数据，本期（10 月 4 日-10 月 17 日）全市场新发理财产品 809 只，较前双周（9 月 18 日-10 月 3 日，880 只）环比变动不大。结构分化趋势 有所减弱：按投资性质划分，固定收益类产品仍占主导地位，但占比有所回落 （本期 97.9%，前值 98.75%）；按机构类型划分，理财公司发行产品 567 只， 占比 70.09%仍为主流，但较前值 76.48%有明显减少。或受假期前后新发数据 尚未稳定、居民投资偏好有所波动等因素影响。 基金产品： 保险产品： 证券分析师：洪锦屏 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516110002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 10 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,214.04 | 0.10 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changshu Automotive Trim (603035) with a target price of 26.19 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase in Q3 2025, achieving 1.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 39% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 132 million CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5% [2][6]. - The report highlights the company's recovery in profitability after four consecutive quarters of decline, driven by new factory ramp-up and strong sales from core customers [6][7]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and has initiated strategic cooperation with Brighter Signals B.V. to develop next-generation tactile sensing technology, which could be applied in both automotive and robotics sectors [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 5.67 billion CNY - 2025E: 6.65 billion CNY (23.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 7.78 billion CNY (17.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 9.15 billion CNY (17.0% YoY growth) [2][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 425 million CNY - 2025E: 465 million CNY (9.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 564 million CNY (21.4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 698 million CNY (23.6% YoY growth) [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 1.16 CNY - 2025E: 1.27 CNY - 2026E: 1.54 CNY - 2027E: 1.90 CNY [2][7] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 14 times [6][7]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of new factories and the expansion into overseas markets, which will enhance its growth prospects [6][7]. - The collaboration with Brighter Signals B.V. opens new growth avenues, particularly in the robotics sector, which could significantly enhance the company's market position [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue of 15.15 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27.48% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.13% [1]. - Despite the revenue growth, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 13.84% year-over-year in Q3 2025, amounting to 1.30 billion yuan [1]. - The company is expanding its presence in the server and humanoid robot connector markets, which are expected to provide significant growth opportunities due to the rapid development of the AI industry [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 40.39 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 21.2%, and a net profit of 3.73 billion yuan, down 18.71% year-over-year [1]. - The projected financial indicators for 2025 to 2027 show a steady increase in total revenue, with estimates of 60.04 billion yuan in 2025, 73.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 88.27 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 28.8%, 23.1%, and 19.4% respectively [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 625 million yuan in 2025 to 1.05 billion yuan in 2027, with a projected growth rate of 21.6% in 2027 [3][9]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a leading domestic connector manufacturer, with a strong focus on consumer electronics connectors and a forward-looking approach to BTB connectors [8]. - The automotive connector business is anticipated to be a key growth driver, benefiting from the rapid development of the automotive market, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles [8]. - The company has established collaborations with major automotive manufacturers, which positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand in this sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 630 million yuan, up 27% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching a historical high of 8.48 billion yuan, a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year [8]. - The company has made significant progress in new fields, including robotics and drones, with successful validations of its heat-resistant materials in various applications [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 27.25 billion yuan, increasing to 39.03 billion yuan by 2027E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2025E to 2027E [4]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 707 million yuan in 2024A to 1.071 billion yuan in 2027E, with a CAGR of 11.1% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to rise from 1.11 yuan in 2024A to 1.67 yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is expected to trade at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 times in 2026, with a target price set at 33.2 yuan based on comparable company valuations [4][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has successfully launched its heat-resistant materials in the market, achieving recognition from leading new energy vehicle manufacturers and establishing partnerships to enhance its product offerings [8]. - The strategic collaboration with Weijing Intelligent aims to accelerate the production of humanoid robots, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation and market expansion [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [1][6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in operations with a gradual improvement in performance. The third quarter saw a slight revenue decline of 0.2%, but overall demand is improving, particularly in high-end product sales [6][7]. - The management team is actively innovating products and expanding market channels, which is expected to drive growth in the coming year [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 29.37 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.27 billion CNY, up 5.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Quarterly Breakdown**: In Q3 2025, total revenue was 8.88 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.37 billion CNY, reflecting a 1.6% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - **Sales Performance**: The company sold 2.162 million kiloliters of beer in Q3, maintaining positive growth, with a slight decrease in price per ton to 4,105.2 CNY per kiloliter [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: The cost per ton decreased by 3.0% to 2,317.0 CNY, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 43.6% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates improved performance in Q4 as the dining scene recovers, with a focus on product innovation and channel expansion [6][7]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 4.73 billion CNY, 5.21 billion CNY, and 5.55 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][7].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 针对潘行长讲话的四个思考——2025年金融 街论坛潘行长主题演讲的学习心得 事 项 2025 年 10 月 27 日，中国人民银行潘行长在 2025 年金融街论坛年会上发表主 题演讲，我们的学习理解如下。 恢复公开市场国债买卖后续跟踪四点观察： 1、关注何时开始实施，对应此时债券收益率为短期央行视角下合理点位； 2、关注再贷款的配合。如果公开市场购买国债期间，央行再贷款投放规模明 显回落，这可能对应着公开市场购买国债仍是流动性管理工具；但如果央行同 步加大再贷款的投放，这可能对应货币政策力度的明显加码。 3、关注银行购买的政府债规模。央行公开市场购买国债期间，如果银行加大 增持国债，这可能对总量流动性产生积极变化，非银存款和 M1 都会受到积极 影响；但如果银行减少增持国债，那对总量流动性的影响可能偏小。 4、公开市场购买国债有助于支持政府债的集中发行。关注明年财政是否会加 码。 特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的两个思考 1、非银存款的多寡与权益市场的成交金额高度相关。稳住非银存款客观上就 是稳住权益市场的成交金额。 2、今年以来稳市政策主动出手降低权益资产的波 ...