Macro Policy Updates - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection's fifth plenary session will be held from January 12 to 14, 2026[2] - The National People's Congress will convene its fourth session on March 5, 2026[2] Fiscal Policy - The national fiscal work conference on December 27 emphasized expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools[3] - New special bond quotas will be allocated to regions with high investment efficiency and project readiness[3] - The Ministry of Finance will enforce strict accountability for local government debt and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts[3] Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China suggested integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance financial support for key sectors[4] - The 2025 Financial Stability Report aims to improve the investment scale and proportion of long-term funds in A-shares[4] Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on optimizing traditional industries and regulating competition in emerging sectors[5] - The industrial and information technology conference highlighted the need for technological innovation and the development of new industries[5] Risk Management - There is a risk of delayed policy updates affecting economic stability[5]

Group 1: CDS Prices and Market Trends - Oracle's 5-year CDS price reached 145.5 basis points, significantly higher than Apple's 25.7, Amazon's 35.9, Google's 39.9, and Microsoft's 35.9 basis points, but lower than the high-yield bond basket's 315.1 basis points[4] - Despite Oracle's CDS price increase, the North American high-yield bond basket's CDS price fell to 315.1 basis points, the lowest since September 26[6] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts to be lower and delayed, with the SOFR futures curve's low point at 3.1%, unchanged from October but lower than December's 3.2%[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 rose to 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since Q3 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[15] - The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index's equity risk premium (ERP) stands at 4.2%, below the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] - China's 10-year government bond forward arbitrage return is at 35 basis points, 65 basis points higher than December 2016 levels[21] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Investors maintain expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates further, with the Euribor futures curve's low point at 2.1%, higher than previous months[12] - The divergence in the copper-gold price ratio and offshore RMB exchange rate signals inconsistent trends, with the copper-gold ratio dropping to 2.7 and the offshore RMB rising to 7.0[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 2.98%, outperforming the broader market by 1.03 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.74%), Ping An (+3.51%), and China Pacific (+3.14%) [1]. - As of November 2025, the insurance industry is projected to achieve a cumulative original premium of 5.76 trillion yuan, with property insurance at 1.34 trillion yuan and life insurance at 4.42 trillion yuan [2]. - The report highlights a potential short-term upward trend in long-term interest rates, which may benefit the insurance sector. Despite anticipated performance pressure due to high investment bases in 2026, the report suggests that stabilizing interest rates and improving "spread" (investment income minus comprehensive liability costs) could drive valuation recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's absolute performance over the past 12 months is 33.4%, with a relative performance of 16.6% compared to the benchmark [6]. Company Valuations - The report provides PEV valuations for life insurance companies: China Life at 0.89x, Ping An at 0.86x, New China at 0.8x, and China Pacific at 0.69x. For H-shares, Ping An is at 0.74x, New China at 0.57x, and China Pacific at 0.54x [4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant valuation recovery potential, such as China Life H and China Pacific [3]. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025E for key companies are as follows: China Pacific at 5.68 yuan, China Life at 6.34 yuan, New China at 12.62 yuan, China Pacific at 3.00 yuan, and China Property at 2.07 yuan. The report also provides PE and PB ratios for these companies, indicating a favorable investment outlook [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of Hainan's customs closure and the winter sports season on service consumption, predicting a robust demand for hospitality and travel services in 2026. Notably, Hainan's first week of duty-free shopping post-closure saw sales of 1.1 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 54.9% [4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic ski and ice tourism ticket bookings, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 70% from November 2025 to February 2026 [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resources services, the duty-free sector, and internet platforms that integrate online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion RMB and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion RMB [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 1.05% in the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, while the overall A-share market rose by 2.77% [7][10]. - The report notes that the hospitality sector, including hotels, saw varied performance, with some companies like Green Tea Group and Dingdong Maicai showing significant gains [16][19]. Important Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the consumer services sector include share buybacks and financial updates, such as Guilin Tourism's court ruling to recover illegal profits of 52.15 million RMB [31][30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the upcoming month, including Nanjing Commercial Travel and Changbai Mountain [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anker Innovations, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][26]. Core Insights - Anker Innovations is focusing on long-term value and has shown a commitment to innovation and employee engagement through its recent anniversary celebration and product demonstrations [2][3]. - The company has experienced a recovery in marginal data since November, with sales growth of approximately 10% year-on-year in October and nearly 20% in November, indicating a positive trend [3][4]. - The upcoming CES exhibition in January is anticipated to showcase new products, potentially enhancing the company's valuation [3][4]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 24,710 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.1%. This is expected to grow to 45,675 million by 2027, with a decreasing growth rate of 19.7% [4][19]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2,114 million in 2024, growing to 3,785 million by 2027, with a growth rate of 30.9% in 2024 [4][19]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.94 yuan in 2024 to 7.06 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 29 to 16 over the same period [4][19]. Market Performance - Anker Innovations has shown a significant stock price recovery potential, with a target price set at 145 yuan, compared to the current price of 113.63 yuan [4][5].

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 化妆品行业跟踪：林清轩通过港交所聆讯 2025年12月29日 分析师 汤秀洁 执业编号：S0360525080008 邮箱：tangxiujie@hcyjs.com 联系人 王笑飞 执业编号：S0360125090005 邮箱：wangxiaofei@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。华创证券对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考， 并不构成本公司对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 摘要 证券研究报告 此页包含机密资料，其全部或任何部分不可被复制或再发送。本页不构成对任何产品的要约出售/购买、招揽或建议。关于免责声明全文，详见本PPT最后部分。 2 林清轩：甄选高山红山茶花，开创以油养肤理念，连续11年位居精华油榜首，线下554家门店并逐步发力电商，精耕细作铸就国货高端品牌。 行业：预测2025年以油养肤市场规模从2024年77亿元同比增长45%至 ...

宏观研究 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 52 期 沥青开工率明显改善 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡回升。截至 12 月 21 日，该指数为 5.22%，环比前 一周上行 0.06 个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。我们统计的 67 个城 市，截至 12 月 26 日当周，商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12 月前 26 日累计同 比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善。截至 12 月 24 当周，开工率为 31.3%， 较上周环比回升 3.7 个点，较去年同期高 5.4 个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4546.2 美金/盎司，上 涨 4.6%；LME 三个月铜价收于 12218 美元/吨，上涨 4.1%；美油收于 56.7 美 元/桶，上涨 1.1%，布油收于 60.6 美元/桶，上涨 1.4% （二）景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行。12 月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速- 11%，前值-17%。12 月前三周累计同比-18.8%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2025, global major asset classes showed strong performance, particularly precious metals and equity markets, with gold rising by 63.8% and silver by 158% since the beginning of the year [2][10][13] - Chinese equity assets performed notably well, with the A-share market increasing by 18.3% and Hong Kong stocks by 28.7%, surpassing the performance of US stocks (17.8%) and European stocks (17.4%) [2][10][13] - The report indicates that the bond market saw a slight increase in US Treasury yields (3.4%) while domestic bonds decreased by 1.1%, and oil prices fell by 8.8% [2][10][13] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market exhibited a clear preference for technology growth styles, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising by 63.1%, the ChiNext 50 by 59.9%, and the ChiNext index by 51.5%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 (18.4%) and the Shanghai 50 (13.4%) [3][20] - The performance of the technology sector reflects a high market valuation for innovation and growth, indicating strong investor sentiment towards these areas [3][20] Group 3 - The report states that various public funds have rebounded significantly in the bull market, with active equity funds showing median returns of 28.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 9.7 percentage points [5][11][23] - The report emphasizes that active management has regained its value in the current market environment, with ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds yielding 29.2% and 28.5% respectively, while flexible allocation funds yielded 22.1% [5][11][23] Group 4 - The report discusses the easing of external liquidity disturbances and the acceleration of domestic real estate stabilization policies, suggesting that a spring market rally may have begun [6][12] - It highlights sectors to focus on during this market rally, including non-bank financials, technology manufacturing (electronics, new energy), and cyclical sectors (coal, non-ferrous metals) [7][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has emphasized increasing efforts in nuclear fusion technology, indicating a strategic shift from basic research to engineering and industrialization [8][10] - Trump Media Technology Group has reached a merger agreement with TAE Technologies, valuing the deal at over $6 billion, with plans to construct the world's first commercial nuclear fusion power plant by mid-2026 [10][11] - The Chengdu quasi-ring symmetric stellarator project has successfully completed its main structure, expected to operate by 2027, filling a significant gap in China's stellarator research [12] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 331.83 billion yuan, with 121 listed companies [4] - The industry has shown a 3.1% absolute performance over the last month and a 5.1% performance over the last six months [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Hezhong Intelligent and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, with a suggestion to pay attention to Guoguang Electric [3][35] - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see significant capital expenditure growth, with an estimated investment of 146.5 billion yuan in major domestic projects over the next 3-5 years [7][30] - The magnet segment holds a high value proportion, with recommendations to focus on Xibu Superconductor, Yongding Co., and Jingda Co. [35][42] Market Trends - Recent bidding activity has shown a total of 5.21 billion yuan in awarded projects, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the nuclear fusion sector [17][21] - The market has experienced significant stock price movements, with top gainers including Zhongtung High-tech and Zhongke Technology, each rising by 18% in the last half of December [30][33]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 124.5 CNY based on a 35x PE for 2026 [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) market, focusing on the integration of "smart security, smartphones, and automotive electronics" for collaborative growth [6][8]. - The report highlights the company's successful transition from a focus on security to a diversified business model that includes smartphones and automotive applications, showcasing significant growth potential [7][8]. - The anticipated approval of L3 autonomous driving is expected to accelerate the deployment of intelligent driving technologies, further driving demand for the company's products [6][8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 5,968 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 108.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 15,142 million CNY, with a growth rate of 23.9% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 393 million CNY in 2024, with an astonishing growth rate of 2,662.8%. By 2027, net profit is expected to reach 1,902 million CNY, with a growth rate of 32.9% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.98 CNY in 2024 to 4.73 CNY in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [2]. Business Development - The company has established itself as a global leader in the security CIS market, with a significant market share and a strong customer base. It has successfully expanded into the smartphone and automotive sectors, achieving notable breakthroughs [6][14]. - The automotive electronics segment has shown remarkable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 107.97% in the first half of 2025, driven by the demand for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [6][14]. - The smartphone business has become the largest revenue contributor, with a year-on-year growth of 40.49% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the successful launch of high-end products [6][14]. Market Trends - The report identifies two key drivers for the CIS market: structural upgrades in downstream applications such as machine vision and automotive, and the opportunity for domestic manufacturers to replace international competitors due to strategic shifts by major players [7][8]. - The global CMOS sensor market is expected to grow from 19 billion USD in 2023 to 29.6 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.67% [41][42]. - The smartphone segment remains the primary application for CMOS sensors, accounting for over 60% of the market, while automotive and security sectors are also experiencing rapid growth [41][42].