1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of March, the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation continued to increase, with crude oil prices oscillating at a high level and rising compared to the previous week. Rising transportation and energy costs supported freight rates and upstream material prices. Terminal demand for products like rebar was steadily recovering seasonally during the "Golden March". In terms of inflation, the decline in pork prices continued to widen, while the decline in food prices slightly narrowed. In terms of exports, export container shipping prices showed a differentiated trend. Although the port container and cargo throughput increased month - on - month, the average monthly value year - on - year was still weaker than that in February. In terms of investment, cement prices stopped falling and rebounded, and downstream construction continued to pick up. In the real estate sector, the average value of new homes in March showed a year - on - year negative growth, while the year - on - year performance of second - hand homes continued to improve compared to the previous week, with the "Little Spring" market being slightly better than the same period [4][29]. - For the bond market, geopolitical disturbances continued, and high - fluctuating oil prices drove up shipping costs and energy product prices. As downstream demand was steadily recovering seasonally, it was necessary to continuously monitor whether the price increase of upstream products would temporarily suppress the release of demand. Overseas, rising shipping costs and geopolitical factors affected some routes, suppressing demand. Although the port throughput increased month - on - month this week, the average value in March was weaker than that in February year - on - year, so attention should be paid to the possibility of export fluctuations in March. Domestically, the resumption rate of construction sites continued to rise this week but was still lower than the same period in the lunar calendar, and the construction intensity was limited. Rebar inventory changed from accumulation to reduction for the first time this year, and the inflection point basically conformed to the seasonality. The "Little Spring" market was mainly reflected in the trading volume of second - hand homes, which continued to increase year - on - year under the high - base situation of last year, while new homes showed a year - on - year negative growth. Attention should be paid to the transmission of volume to price in the future [4][30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation - related: Food prices continued to decline - The decline in pork prices widened. This week, the average wholesale price of pork across the country announced by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and vegetable prices decreased by 2.4% month - on - month. The decline in food prices narrowed, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreasing by 0.9% and 1.0% month - on - month respectively [9]. (2) Import and export - related: Container shipping prices showed a differentiated trend - Due to changes in supply - demand fundamentals, freight rates showed a differentiated trend. This week, the CCFI index increased by 4.5% month - on - month, while the SCFI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. The export container shipping market continued to be affected by the tense geopolitical situation. Relevant routes were greatly affected, and the rest of the routes were affected by supply - demand fundamentals and showed a differentiated trend. Among them, the European route transportation was basically stable, and the booking price continued to rise. The demand on the North American route weakened, and the prices of the West and East US routes decreased by about 7 - 8% month - on - month. The Persian Gulf route was most affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the container shipping market basically stagnated [10]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from March 9th to March 15th, the port's container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 9.3% and 9.5% month - on - month respectively, and the single - week year - on - year increase was 11.1% and 2.3% respectively [10]. - Supported by costs, the BDI and CDFI indices continued to rise. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported that the geopolitical conflict continued to drive up international fuel prices. Supported by rising costs, the freight rates of voyage charter routes in the international dry bulk shipping market remained at a high level. However, high oil prices had a certain impact on the release of local coal and grain transportation demand [10]. (3) Industry - related: Rebar inventory decreased for the first time this year, and demand continued to improve - The decline in coal prices narrowed. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with a narrowing decline. Currently in the consumption off - season, power plant coal consumption was weak. However, due to the deep inversion of imported coal prices, procurement demand shifted to domestic trade, and cargo volumes were released intensively. In terms of price, coal prices in the main producing areas rose slightly and steadily. Coupled with the rigid demand for restocking by downstream enterprises after resuming work, coal mine sales improved, and the week - on - week average decline in coal prices narrowed [16]. - Rebar prices continued to rise, and inventory changed from accumulation to reduction for the first time this year. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the social inventory of rebar decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, entering the inventory reduction phase for the first time since the beginning of the year. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.5% month - on - month and continued to improve. This week, the acceleration of downstream resumption of work drove the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar increased significantly, production continued to rise, inventory changed from increase to decrease, and both factory and social inventories decreased slightly [16]. - The asphalt operating rate declined rapidly. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 1.2 percentage points month - on - month to 21.8%, at a relatively low level. Geopolitical factors in Iran led to uncertainty in raw material supply, and asphalt production continued to decline month - on - month. In terms of demand, current terminal project demand was low, and high prices restricted transactions. Asphalt was in a situation of weak supply and demand [16]. - Due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in risk appetite, the decline in copper prices widened. This week, the average price of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, with the decline continuing to widen. The impact of US - Iran geopolitical factors increased, stagflation expectations trading continued. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the March interest - rate meeting and a hawkish stance, the US dollar index strengthened, and low risk appetite continued to suppress copper prices [19]. - The glass futures price turned down. Although the energy price at the cost end supported the upstream soda ash price and limited the downward space for the finished product price, the current terminal demand had not substantially improved, and downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious. The spot price remained stable [19]. (4) Investment - related: Cement prices stopped falling and rebounded - Cement prices started to rise. This week, the cement price index increased by 1.6% month - on - month, ending the continuous decline. According to the Centennial Building Network, as of March 18th, the resumption rate of construction sites across the country was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 19.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the labor employment rate increased by 17.8 percentage points month - on - month, remaining the same year - on - year in the lunar calendar [23]. - The trading volume of new homes continued to increase. As of Friday this week, the trading area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 12.7% month - on - month and 13% year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase narrowing compared to the previous week. Aligned with the Lunar New Year, as of March 20th, the trading area of new homes in 30 cities (7 - day rolling sum) decreased by 16.3% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, with the decline continuing to widen compared to the previous Friday [24]. - The trading volume of second - hand homes increased rapidly. As of Friday this week, the trading area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 15.1% month - on - month and decreased by 9.7% year - on - year, showing improvement compared to the previous week. Aligned with the Lunar New Year, as of March 20th, the trading volume of second - hand homes (7 - day rolling sum) increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding compared to the previous week. The "Little Spring" market for second - hand homes was better than the same period [24]. (5) Consumption: Oil prices oscillated at a high level - In the first half of March, the retail sales of passenger cars showed a year - on - year negative growth. According to the Passenger Car Association, from March 1st to March 15th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 561,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2% compared to the same period in February. The popularity of the car market was gradually recovering [25]. - The average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities decreased slightly. From last Saturday to this Friday, the average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities was 3.209 million person - times, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The Baidu Migration Index decreased by 2.6% month - on - month, in line with seasonality. The average value in March increased by 28.1% year - on - year, and travel was still at a high level compared to the same period [25]. - The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation remained high, and international oil prices fluctuated at a high level. As of March 20th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 8.8% and decreased by 0.5% respectively compared to last Friday, reaching $112.2 per barrel and $98.2 per barrel. Currently, major oil - producing countries were worried about reducing oil supply due to factors such as受阻 overseas shipping capacity, which supported the rise in oil prices [25][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [10][49]. Core Insights - The domestic flight schedule has decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, while international flights have largely recovered to 98% of 2019 levels. Regional flights have recovered to 89% [11][12]. - The report highlights that the domestic airlines' international passenger flight plans have restored to 98% of 2019 levels, with significant recovery in regions such as Asia and Europe [22][23]. - The report suggests that despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the medium-term supply-demand dynamics remain favorable, supporting revenue levels in the domestic market [10][34]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Schedule - The total domestic flight schedule (including passenger and cargo) has decreased by 2.7% compared to the previous summer-autumn season, but is up by 20.6% compared to 2019 [12][18]. - Major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen show mixed results, with some airports experiencing growth while others see declines [13][17]. International Flight Recovery - Domestic airlines' international flight schedules have recovered to 98% of 2019 levels, with a total of 9,947 planned flights for the summer-autumn season [22][26]. - Recovery rates vary by region, with Asia at 100%, Europe at 133%, and North America at only 26% [23][22]. Regional Flight Recovery - Domestic regional flight schedules have recovered to 89% of 2019 levels, with a total of 1,481 planned flights [29]. - Recovery rates among airlines vary, with some airlines like 吉祥航空 (Spring Airlines) and 华夏航空 (China United Airlines) showing significant growth [20][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as China National Aviation (国航), Southern Airlines (南方航空), and Eastern Airlines (东航) for their potential revenue elasticity [10][34]. - It also highlights the sustainable operational turning point for 华夏航空 and the competitive edge of 春秋航空 due to its low-cost model [10][34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Micron Technology (MU) Core Insights - Micron Technology reported a record revenue of $23.86 billion for FY26 Q2, representing a year-over-year increase of 196% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 75% [2][11] - The Non-GAAP gross margin reached a record 75%, exceeding guidance due to higher pricing and favorable product mix [2][11] - The company anticipates a continued strong demand for DRAM and NAND driven by artificial intelligence and traditional server markets, with server sales expected to grow by 10-15% in 2026 [3][27] - Micron's capital expenditures for FY2026 are projected to exceed $25 billion, primarily driven by cleanroom facility investments [5][13] Summary by Relevant Sections FY2026 Q2 Performance Overview - Micron achieved a record revenue of $23.86 billion, with a gross margin of 75% and net income of $13.79 billion [2][11] - The revenue growth was attributed to AI-driven memory demand and structural supply constraints [2][11] Revenue Breakdown - DRAM revenue was $18.8 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 207% [18] - NAND revenue reached $5 billion, representing 21% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 169% [18] Company Guidance - For FY26 Q3, Micron expects revenue of $33.5 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 81% [34][35] - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures in FY2027 to support HBM and DRAM investments [5][13] Market Expectations - The demand for DRAM and NAND is expected to remain constrained due to supply limitations, with industry DRAM bit shipments projected to grow by about 20% in 2026 [14] - The automotive and industrial sectors are seeing strong revenue growth, with total revenue exceeding $2 billion [29]

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In January-February, the general fiscal revenue decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, while the general fiscal expenditure increased by 6.1%, marking the highest growth since 2022[2][3] - The fiscal deficit for January-February reached 2,552 billion, a significant increase from 1,240 billion last year, indicating a strong subjective willingness to stimulate the economy[3][10] - The general fiscal deficit was recorded at 10,363 billion, the highest for the same period in recent years, compared to 6,217 billion last year[3][10] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Insights - The growth rate of fiscal funds available for physical projects is estimated to reach 26.3% in Q1, the highest since 2022[4][14] - Central and local governments have sufficient projects to support infrastructure growth, with the National Development and Reform Commission approving major projects totaling over 4,000 billion[5][15] - The fiscal funds available for physical projects are projected to increase by 9.7% for the entire year, also the highest since 2022[16][17] Group 3: Sustainability and Challenges - The sustainability of high infrastructure growth is under scrutiny, as local governments face pressure with conservative investment targets set for major projects[6][18] - The fiscal capital provided for projects is expected to grow by 8,416 billion this year, contrasting with a decline of 6,091 billion last year, indicating improved conditions for project initiation[17][18] - The performance of the National Development and Reform Commission in project approvals will be critical, as historical correlations with infrastructure growth have shown variability[7][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Micron Technology (MU) Core Insights - Micron Technology reported a record revenue of $23.86 billion for FY26 Q2, representing a year-over-year increase of 196% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 75% [2][11] - The Non-GAAP gross margin reached a record 75%, exceeding guidance due to higher pricing and favorable product mix [2][11] - The company anticipates a continued strong demand for DRAM and NAND driven by artificial intelligence and traditional server markets, with server sales expected to grow by 10-15% in 2026 [3][27] - Micron's capital expenditures for FY2026 are projected to exceed $25 billion, primarily driven by cleanroom facility investments [5][34] Summary by Sections FY2026 Q2 Performance - Micron achieved a record revenue of $23.86 billion, with a gross margin of 75% and net income of $13.79 billion [2][11] - The company noted significant growth in DRAM and NAND segments, with DRAM revenue reaching $18.8 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue [18] Revenue Breakdown - DRAM revenue for FY26 Q2 was $18.8 billion, up 207% year-over-year, while NAND revenue was $5 billion, up 169% year-over-year [18][19] - The cloud memory business unit generated $7.7 billion in revenue, representing 32% of total revenue [19] Company Guidance - For FY26 Q3, Micron expects revenue of $33.5 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 81% [5][34] - The company anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures for FY2027, driven by investments in HBM and DRAM [34] Market Expectations - The demand for DRAM and NAND is expected to remain constrained due to supply limitations, with industry DRAM bit shipments projected to grow by about 20% in 2026 [14] - Micron's data center SSD market share is expected to grow for the fourth consecutive year, driven by strong demand for high-performance storage solutions [30] End Market Analysis - In the PC market, supply constraints may lead to a decline in shipments, but AI applications are expected to drive long-term memory capacity growth [4][27] - The automotive and industrial sectors are seeing increased demand for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), with revenue from these segments exceeding $2 billion [4][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the domestic carbon black industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [15]. Core Insights - International carbon black giants have issued price increase notices, with Cabot China raising prices for specialty carbon black products by 1,800 CNY/ton effective March 15, 2026, marking the second price increase in 2026 [2]. - The carbon black industry is experiencing a price surge due to rising energy costs influenced by geopolitical events, with Brent oil prices increasing by 49.9% and NYMEX natural gas prices by 9.5% since late February [7]. - Domestic carbon black production capacity and output are projected to reach 9.507 million tons/year and 6.08 million tons, respectively, in 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.2% and 8.4% [7]. - The domestic carbon black market price as of March 19, 2026, is 8,252 CNY/ton, up 28.94% from the beginning of 2026 and 40.1% from the Q4 2025 low [7]. - The domestic carbon black industry is consolidating, with leading companies like Black Cat Holdings and Longxing Chemical gaining market share due to stricter environmental policies and increased entry barriers [7]. - The tire industry, which accounts for approximately 58.7% of carbon black consumption, continues to support stable demand for carbon black as global vehicle ownership grows [7]. - The report highlights key domestic carbon black companies to watch, including Black Cat Holdings, Longxing Technology, Yongdong Shares, and Lian Ke Technology, as they are expected to benefit from rising oil and natural gas prices [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][32]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development characterized by a shift in growth dynamics, prioritizing quality and price stability, and an increase in market share for leading companies [3][4]. - The report highlights that the leading companies in the domestic e-commerce express delivery sector are Zhongtong and Yuantong, with Zhongtong expected to further demonstrate its value as a leader in the new phase [3][4]. - The report also emphasizes the potential performance elasticity of Shentong Express and the continued growth prospects for Jitu Express in Southeast Asia, projecting a 74% year-on-year increase in average daily parcel volume by Q4 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that in January-February, the cumulative business volume growth rate was led by Yuantong, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [3][11]. - The report provides detailed revenue data for February, showing Shentong with the highest revenue growth rate of 29.4% year-on-year, followed by Yuantong at 14.9% [3][11]. Company Performance - In February, Shentong's single ticket revenue was 2.44 yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year, while Yuantong's was 2.40 yuan, up 3.15% year-on-year [3][11]. - The report indicates that Shentong's revenue growth is significantly higher than its competitors, with a notable performance in both business volume and revenue [3][11]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry will maintain stable pricing, with leading companies expected to increase their market share [3][4]. - It also highlights the importance of Shentong's "Gain Plan" for optimizing its structure and the potential for collaboration with Jitu Express to enhance growth prospects [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [25]. Core Insights - In January and February 2026, national real estate development investment reached 961.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, down 13.5% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 81.86 billion yuan, a decline of 20.2% [4]. - The sales of newly built commercial housing remain weak, contrasting with the increase in second-hand housing transactions. The monitored second-hand housing transaction area in 11 cities increased by 6% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period [5]. - The current second-hand housing transactions are seen as a natural release of demand after significant price corrections, and the sustainability of this demand depends on the overall economic recovery [5]. - The decline in new housing starts is significant, with the new housing start area in January and February 2026 at 50.84 million square meters, indicating a larger decline compared to the sales area [15]. - The valuation of real estate companies should consider both historical burdens and future value creation capabilities, focusing on the return on equity (ROE) levels [14]. Summary by Sections National Real Estate Market Overview - In the first two months of 2026, the national real estate market showed a significant decline in both investment and sales, with a total investment of 961.2 billion yuan and a sales area of 92.93 million square meters [4]. Sales Performance - The sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions showed a positive trend with a 6% increase in selected cities [5]. New Housing Starts - The new housing start area was reported at 50.84 million square meters, reflecting a substantial decline, indicating ongoing pressures in the market [15]. Company Valuation Insights - The valuation of real estate companies is influenced by their historical land reserves and future operational capabilities, with a focus on achieving a return on equity that meets shareholder expectations [14][16]. Investment Recommendations - For development-oriented real estate companies, high land acquisition precision is crucial for ensuring asset returns. Companies like Greentown China, China Resources Land, and others are recommended for their regional expertise [17]. - For stable dividend assets, leading shopping centers are suggested due to their strong alpha attributes, with recommendations for companies like Swire Properties [17]. - The report also highlights the importance of leading real estate agencies, such as Beike-W, for their efficiency in transaction systems and market share [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the pesticide industry, indicating an expected upward trend in the industry over the next 3-6 months [2]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry is experiencing a price increase driven by high oil prices, with 49% of tracked pesticide products seeing price rises as of March 15, 2026 [2]. - The report highlights that the industry has faced three consecutive years of downturn, but the current conditions suggest a potential reversal in the cycle, supported by improved planting profitability and regulatory changes [2][8]. - Key companies identified for investment include Yangnong Chemical, Xingfa Group, Jiangshan Co., and others, which are positioned well within the market [2][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pesticide industry is currently valued at approximately 262.97 billion yuan, with 32 listed companies contributing to this market [5]. - The market has shown a 30% increase over the past 12 months, indicating a recovery trend [6]. Price Trends - Significant price increases have been noted for key pesticide products, with herbicides like glyphosate and glufosinate seeing price hikes of 16.38% and 6.59% year-on-year, respectively [8]. - The report attributes the price increases to rising raw material costs, active market transactions, and strong demand during the spring planting season [8]. Company Forecasts - Yangnong Chemical is projected to have an EPS of 3.13 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 23.39, while Xingfa Group is expected to have an EPS of 1.55 yuan and a PE ratio of 20.73 for the same year [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential of these companies, recommending them as top picks in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strategic bullish outlook on the coal chemical sector due to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures surpassing $104 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures exceeding $97 per barrel, indicating a significant increase in profitability for coal chemical products when oil prices rise above $80 per barrel [8]. - The report emphasizes the strategic value of coal in China's energy security, noting that coal consumption accounts for 51.4% of total energy consumption, with domestic coal production projected to reach 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 1.4% increase year-on-year [8]. - The report identifies key products to focus on, including coal-to-olefins, coal-to-methanol, and PVC produced via the calcium carbide method, recommending specific companies such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng for investment [8]. Company Summaries - **Baofeng Energy (600989.SH)**: Expected EPS of 2.04 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 16.02 and a strong buy rating [4]. - **Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ)**: Expected EPS of 2.10 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 12.57 and a strong buy rating [4]. - **Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH)**: Expected EPS of 1.96 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 18.57 and a strong buy rating [4]. - **Yuntu Holdings (002539.SZ)**: Expected EPS of 1.13 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 12.51 and a recommendation rating [4]. - **Guanghui Energy (600256.SH)**: Expected EPS of 0.35 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 20.19 and a strong buy rating [4].