债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（1215-1221）：跨年后或进入"供 需双强"格局 债券周报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Sichuan Jiuzhou (000801) [1] Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a radio frequency business asset group from its controlling shareholder, aiming to optimize its industrial layout and enhance its supply chain [1][3] - This acquisition is expected to improve the company's competitiveness and industry position in the radio frequency sector, which primarily serves military markets [2] - The transaction aligns with the company's strategic goal of extending its capabilities from radio frequency modules to integrated solutions, thereby strengthening its market position [2][3] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 4,178 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 4,335 million, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted at 194 million, with a decline of 3.0% year-on-year. By 2025, the net profit is expected to decrease further to 175 million, a drop of 10.1% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.19 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 90 [4] Business Impact - The acquisition is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's performance, with the radio frequency business expected to account for 14% of the company's revenue and 8% of its profit in 2024 [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the contribution is expected to rise to 18% of revenue and 44% of profit [2] - The transaction is seen as a significant step in the context of state-owned enterprise reform, indicating strong support from the group for the listed company [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit spreads have generally widened, with a focus on prioritizing mid-to-short-term coupon assets for investment [1][10] - The current yield for 1-year products is in the range of 1.72%-1.80%, with spreads below the central level since 2024 by 13-19 basis points [2][24] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.83%-2.10%, and spreads are in the range of 19-42 basis points, with a recommendation to prioritize mid-to-short-term coupon assets due to high demand from funds and wealth management [2][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the 4-5 year products have yields ranging from 2.0%-2.35% and spreads between 26-55 basis points, with a marginal recovery in coupon configuration value [3][26] - For products over 5 years, yields are between 2.23%-2.76% with spreads from 24-64 basis points, indicating a need for cautious trading participation due to market volatility [3][26] - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with credit spreads showing weak compression momentum [6][24] Group 3 - Key policies include the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizing the prevention and resolution of financial risks, and the second meeting of bondholders for "22 Vanke MTN004" [4][28] - The report mentions that nearly 70% of bond-issuing entities in Henan have completed the repayment of hidden debts, indicating significant progress in debt resolution and market transformation [4][28] - The report also notes the first appearance of Guizhou's municipal state-owned enterprise in the capital market, marking a significant event in the current round of debt resolution [4][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks and rose, with an increase in valuation [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.40%, large - cap value fell 0.17%, mid - cap growth rose 1.05%, mid - cap value rose 0.91%, small - cap growth rose 0.97%, and small - cap value rose 1.07% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.204 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.42%; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1.748742 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.29%; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.444 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.48bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.77 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 192.56 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 119.54 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.14 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 55.32%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58pct; the largest change occurred in the 110 - 120 (including 120) range, with a proportion of 9.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5pct; there was 1 bond with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 131.51 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 32.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14pct; the overall weighted par value was 99.53 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 84.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10pct [2]. Industry Performance - On December 19, most underlying stock industries rose, with 27 industries rising. In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were commerce and retail (+3.66%), light industry manufacturing (+2.17%), and environmental protection (+2.06%); the top three industries in terms of decline were banking (-0.44%), electronics (-0.29%), and coal (-0.29%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 23 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were environmental protection (+4.16%), building materials (+2.40%), and building decoration (+1.65%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - bank finance (-1.26%), national defense and military industry (-0.16%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector increased by 1.53% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.49%, the technology sector increased by 0.21%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.46%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.68% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.5pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.33pct, the technology sector decreased by 0.96pct, the large - consumption sector decreased by 1.8pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.86pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.65% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.69%, the technology sector increased by 0.99%, the large - consumption sector increased by 1.19%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.47% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.1pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.75pct, the technology sector increased by 0.27pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.56pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.79pct [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the development of oral SERDs for breast cancer treatment. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent FDA approval of Imlunestrant, an oral SERD developed by Eli Lilly, for the treatment of ER+/HER2–/ESR1 mutant advanced or metastatic breast cancer, marking it as the second oral SERD approved after Elacestrant [18][19] - The EMBER-3 trial results indicate that Imlunestrant significantly improves progression-free survival (PFS) compared to standard endocrine therapy, with a median PFS of 5.5 months versus 3.8 months for standard therapy [23] - Giredestrant, developed by Roche, has shown positive results in the III phase evERA trial, demonstrating significant benefits in PFS compared to standard treatment in patients previously treated with CDK4/6 inhibitors [27] - Camizestrant, another oral SERD from AstraZeneca, has shown promising efficacy in the SERENA-6 trial, with a median PFS of 16.6 months when combined with CDK4/6 inhibitors [33] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Innovative Drugs - The report reviews the advancements in innovative drugs, particularly in the field of breast cancer treatment, emphasizing the importance of oral SERDs [2][5] Section 2: Current Status of ER+ Breast Cancer Therapies - The report discusses the current landscape of therapies for ER+ breast cancer, including the mechanisms of action for various anti-estrogen therapies and the challenges of resistance faced by patients [10][8] Section 3: Clinical Development of New Oral SERDs - The report details the clinical development progress of several new oral SERDs, including Imlunestrant, Giredestrant, and Camizestrant, highlighting their respective phases and trial outcomes [12][11][33] Section 4: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The report provides insights into the market dynamics of the biotech sector, including stock performance of key companies involved in the development of innovative cancer therapies [46][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, focusing on AI equipment and consumables, as well as nuclear fusion [1]. Core Insights - The AI wave is initiating a new cycle in intelligent manufacturing, shifting investment focus towards assets that can define the future and support the AI trend [18]. - The nuclear fusion sector is accelerating, with significant project announcements indicating a robust investment environment, projecting a global market size nearing 500 billion USD by 2030 [6][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary and fiscal policies in stimulating domestic demand, suggesting a new recovery cycle for the equipment industry [6]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from the AI trend, with human-like robots and AI PCB equipment being key areas of growth [18][20]. - Solid-state batteries are projected to see accelerated development, with significant capital expenditure expected in the equipment sector [21]. - The report highlights the potential of controlled nuclear fusion as a sustainable energy source, with ongoing projects enhancing the industry's viability [22]. - Domestic demand for construction machinery is recovering, supported by large infrastructure projects and a global economic rebound [23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [2][7]. - The report lists several companies across various sectors, including AI equipment, robotics, and engineering machinery, as key investment opportunities [6][19]. Market Performance - The mechanical sector has shown a mixed performance, with a recent decline of 1.7% in the sector index, while individual stocks have varied significantly in their weekly performance [10][14]. - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with fluctuations in stock prices reflecting broader economic conditions [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook due to easing inflation and rising commodity prices [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data has exceeded market expectations, but the reliability of new inflation and employment data may be limited due to the recent government shutdown. Precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile, with continued demand for gold as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties. Silver prices have recently surged past $65 per ounce, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints [3][4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for copper concentrate has been set at $0 per ton for 2026, indicating a significant reduction in smelting fees and increasing expectations for production cuts in copper smelting [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that overseas production cut expectations are strengthening, particularly with the announcement of maintenance shutdowns at major aluminum smelting facilities, which, combined with domestic inventory reductions, is expected to support aluminum prices [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **View 1**: U.S. CPI and employment data may lack credibility, leading to volatile precious metal prices. Gold is expected to maintain its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while silver prices are supported by supply-demand imbalances [3]. - **View 2**: New copper concentrate long-term contract prices are set low, increasing expectations for smelting production cuts, which may support higher copper prices [3]. - **View 3**: Strengthening overseas production cut expectations and ongoing domestic inventory reductions are likely to push aluminum prices higher [4]. Company Insights - **Company Activity**: Luoyang Molybdenum plans to acquire South American gold mines, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [10]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The report recommends stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, as well as copper and aluminum stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [11]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Lithium Market**: The recovery progress of the Jiangxi lithium mine may be slower than expected, leading to upward pressure on lithium prices due to supply tightness [12]. - **Cobalt Prices**: Cobalt salt prices have been rising, supported by slow export approval processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to tighter supply conditions [13][14]. - **Company Activity**: Tianqi Lithium's expansion project is progressing, which will enhance its production capacity and improve profitability [15]. Aluminum Industry Data Tracking - **Production and Inventory**: The report tracks significant data on aluminum production, inventory levels, and profit margins, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports price stability [22][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the imminent IPOs of major AI model companies, such as Zhiyu and MiniMax, indicating a significant opportunity for investment in the AI sector as domestic computing power continues to develop [4][18]. - The report emphasizes that 2026 will be a critical window for the commercial application of AI in enterprises, with a focus on multi-modal and physical AI, as well as edge AI [4]. - Zhiyu's upcoming IPO is seen as a pivotal event for independent AI model companies in China, potentially leading to a market consolidation where leading firms gain a larger market share [4][18]. - The report projects that the Chinese large language model market will grow from 5.3 billion RMB in 2024 to 101.1 billion RMB by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 63.5% [4]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 56,738.11 billion RMB and a circulating market value of 51,410.85 billion RMB [1]. - The report notes a recent decline in the computer index by 1.58% over the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase of 0.03% [4]. - The report identifies key players in the AI sector, including Zhiyu and MiniMax, which are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI applications in various industries [4]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the computer industry over the past month is -4.8%, with a 19.5% increase over the past six months and a 13.3% increase over the past year [2]. - The report indicates that the industry is experiencing a beta market trend, driven by the upcoming IPOs and advancements in AI technology [4].

华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20251215-20251221） 推荐（维持） 中小银行"减量提质"加速推进 行业研究 银行 2025 年 12 月 21 日 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -9% 3% 14% 26% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 2024-12-23~2025-12- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 12 月 21 日 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/12/15~2025/12/19） 市场交投活跃度环比下行，贴水幅度有所 推荐（维持） 收敛 1）沪深 300 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.2%/-1.3%/-7.9%；2）中 证 1000 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.6%/-1.7%/-2.7%；3）中证 2000 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为+0.3%/-0.1%/+6.4%；4）微盘股相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为+3%/-4.4%/+42.5%。 1）沪深 300 周/月/年初以来日均成交额分别为 4042/4187/3998 亿元，环比 -12.4%/-48.8%/+0.6%；2）中证 500 周/月/年初以来日均成交额分别为 2913/2855/2802 亿 元，环比 -9.4%/-48%/+0.8% ；3）中 证 1000 周 /月 /年初以来日均成交额分别为 3624/3692/3579 亿元，环比-8.3%/-44.3%/+0.5%；4） ...