Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a slight increase with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, with a significant decrease in trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% day - on - day, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% [1][7]. - Different style indices had varying performance, with mid - cap growth rising 0.98% and being relatively dominant [1][8]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 90.616 billion yuan, a 17.52% decrease from the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2938.494 billion yuan, a 26.30% decrease [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 50.92 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.50bp to 1.85% [1][13]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.05% to 139.95 yuan, and the proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) rose by 0.19pct to 71.58% [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased by 0.47pct to 36.32%, and the overall weighted par value increased by 0.08% to 104.54 yuan [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.80%), Media (- 2.70%), and Computer (- 2.40%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 1.67%), Basic Chemicals (+ 1.40%), and Non - ferrous Metals (+ 1.37%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were Building Materials (- 3.47%), National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.97%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 2.85%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 2.55%), Commerce and Retail (+ 2.35%), and Automobile (+ 1.87%) [3].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 再论出口强在中游：2026 机电出口或延续景气 ——12 月进出口数据点评 事 项 12 月我国以美元计算出口同比 6.6%，预期 3%，前值 5.9%；12 月以美元计价 进口同比 5.7%，预期 0.9%，前值 1.9%。 主要观点 核心观点： 1、12 月，中国出口同比不仅没因基数问题回落，反而较上月回升 0.7 个点。 与 PMI 新出口订单的大幅回升对应，可能既有外需景气也有年末节前一定的 生产前置因素。 拆分商品来看，边际改善动力主要源自四类机电产品：1）手机：或主要源于 去年价格低基数；2）自动数据处理设备及其零部件，设备篇弱，主要是零附 件强，或受益于 AI 趋势下的科技进口需求景气；3）车：主要是新能源车偏 强，或受益于竞争优势和市场需求扩张；4）集成电路：与电脑零附件类似， 或主要受益于科技进口需求高增。 2、展望 2026：我们认为中游偏强或有望延续。一是从产品结构看，机电产品 四链条或均有景气逻辑支撑：1）信息通讯技术（ICT）产品：或受益于科技进 口需求景气；2）船舶：出口韧性来自手持订单继续高增长；3）汽车，出口韧 性或受益于竞争力提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CITIC Bank with a target price of 10.58 CNY and 9.70 HKD [2][9]. Core Insights - The revenue growth rate has turned upward, primarily due to improved core revenue capabilities, while asset quality remains stable [9]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2025, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.15% [2][9]. - Total assets have surpassed 10 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, CITIC Bank anticipates total revenue of 212.475 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.5% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 70.618 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.0% [2][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio is expected to slightly decrease to 1.15%, while the provision coverage ratio is projected to be stable at 203.6% [2][10]. Financial Metrics Overview - Key financial metrics for 2025 include: - Total revenue: 212,396 million CNY - Net profit: 70,657 million CNY - Earnings per share: 1.24 CNY - Price-to-earnings ratio: 6.11 [4][10]. - The bank's total assets are projected to reach 10,122.93 billion CNY by 2026, with a steady growth trajectory [16][20]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report indicates that the asset quality is improving, with a stable non-performing loan ratio and adequate provision coverage [9][10]. - The bank's risk management practices are highlighted as effective, contributing to the stability of its asset quality [9].

Group 1: Inflation Trends in 2025 - In 2025, the US CPI showed a "倒 N" shape trend with year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7% across the four quarters[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% for the same period[1] - The increase in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects[1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Inflation in 2026 - The main risk for inflation in 2026 is additional fiscal stimulus rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Excluding tariff impacts (approximately 0.5%), CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%[2] - The probability of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, with measures taken to lower food prices and oil prices remaining stable due to oversupply[2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Feedback - The inflation trend is largely dependent on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation[2] - If non-farm employment exceeds 100,000 per month, it may indicate an overheating job market, which could lead to inflationary pressures[2] Group 4: Political Influences on Fiscal Policy - The greatest inflationary risk stems from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, particularly concerning the cost of living crisis[3] - Trump may propose additional fiscal measures, such as direct payments funded by tariff revenues, to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail[3] - The timeline for potential fiscal stimulus is likely around mid-year, coinciding with the primary elections from March to September[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of 11.18 CNY [2][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's core competitive advantages built on the "three pillars" of wealth management, investment banking, and investment management, which are expected to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has shown significant recovery in revenue and profitability, achieving record highs in recent quarters, driven by active brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [35][33]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,920 million CNY in 2024 to 5,870 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in 2024 and 33% in 2025 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 728 million CNY in 2024 to 1,512 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 71% in 2024 and 78% in 2025 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 0.58 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 33.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company, Huaxi Securities, is a comprehensive securities firm rooted in Southwest China, focusing on wealth management, investment banking, and investment management as its main business pillars [15][18]. - It has a strong shareholder structure, with significant stakes held by local state-owned enterprises, ensuring stable control [18][19]. Business Analysis - The brokerage and proprietary trading segments are the main drivers of revenue, with brokerage income accounting for 47.2% of total revenue in 2025, significantly above the industry average [27][51]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in client funds, reaching a historical high of 330.9 million CNY, with a market share of 1.7% [58][60]. - The investment banking segment has faced challenges due to regulatory issues but is expected to recover as the company focuses on debt financing and restructuring its operations [62][64]. Market Position - The company has gradually regained market share, with total revenue reaching 34.9 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.5% [33][35]. - The asset scale has also grown, with total assets and net assets increasing by 17.3% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, providing a solid foundation for future business expansion [33][34].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 量化看市场系列之三："看线宝"小程序上线 ❖ 摘要 自 2023 年 1 月开启 K 线量化研究以来，我们在这场深度的探索中已走过近一 千个昼夜。我们始终坚信：唯有在一个角度上的极致深耕，方能孕育出真正触 及市场本质的投资策略。 在过去的三年里，我们的研究路径经历了四个核心阶段的跨越： 但由于部分客户 IP 限制与浏览器问题，形态云在部分客户的电脑上无法正常 显示，我们将形态云的核心服务搬运到微信小程序上，采用 WXML/WXSS、 小程序框架，调用原生组件，启动速度快，操作流畅，体验接近原生系统，并 极易与社交场景结合（如分享给好友/群），也完美连接线上线下（扫码即用）。 我们构建了"看线宝"小程序。 "看线宝"小程序内置了个股、可转债、期货、ETF 形态量化分析、ETF 智能 择时与 ETF 轮动分析等等。深度集成 ECharts (WeChat 适配版)，针对 K 线形 态标注、多轴联动（股价与净值线）进行了深度定制。并采用微信最新官方隐 私授权指引，结合 OAuth 2.0 授权流程进行手机号加密解析。 ❖ 风险提示： 数据基于历史，不代表未来。 金融工程 点评报 ...

Group 1 - The key industries for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 5000 points in 2026 are electronics, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, banking, military industry, machinery, and automobiles [10][12][15] - In the optimistic PE + neutral EPS scenario, the EPS growth rates for 2025 are projected to be 26% for electronics, 46% for non-bank financials, and 31% for non-ferrous metals, with expected growth rates of 42%, 53%, and 36% respectively in 2026 under neutral assumptions [15][12][10] - The banking sector, despite lower EPS growth, holds a significant weight of 17.1% in the index, indicating its potential to contribute to index growth if valuations or earnings improve [15][12] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a surge in short-term premium income and improved mid-term investment returns, driven by a significant amount of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [18][13] - The brokerage sector shows a significant valuation divergence, with a PE of 18.2 times and a PB of 1.41 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery due to strong fundamentals and policy catalysts [21][23] - The electronics industry has seen a substantial increase in its market weight, with its share in the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 1.6% at the end of 2015 to 11.5% by the end of 2025, supported by trends in AI and semiconductor industries [24][4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to tight supply conditions and increased demand from AI and energy sectors, potentially leading to price increases in 2026 [25][5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is anticipated to expand, with strong performances expected in commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, driven by policy support and technological advancements [29][6] - Historical data suggests that the 2015 bull market was significantly driven by financial and real estate sectors, indicating that the current bull market may similarly rely on technology and manufacturing sectors to reach 5000 points [30][7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economic cycle is marked by a shift in the pricing model of dollar assets, transitioning from economic growth to inflation levels following the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [2][5][12] - The imposition of tariffs in 2018 and 2025 has led to fluctuations in the dollar asset pricing model, with high tariffs impacting demand for U.S. Treasury bonds more significantly than the strength of the dollar [2][5][28] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from overseas investors is driven by yield spreads and duration needs, while the demand for U.S. equities is influenced by differences in labor productivity due to intangible asset investments [2][6][28] Group 2 - Over the past 20 years, the demand for overseas dollar assets has shifted from risk diversification to a focus on labor productivity differences, which may lead to significant asset price bubbles [3][6] - The report highlights that the private sector's balance sheets and cash flows have improved, supporting actual consumption demand, which alters the macroeconomic risks faced by the U.S. economy [5][27] - The report emphasizes that the marginal risk switch is hindered, leading to a new pricing model for dollar assets that oscillates between unexpected inflation risks and unexpected economic growth downturn risks [5][27] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on the pricing of dollar assets is significant, as they are seen as a demand shock that hinders the return of offshore dollars, particularly affecting the demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [28][31] - The report notes that the structure of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds has shifted from official institutions to the private sector, indicating a change in the dynamics of dollar asset demand [34][35] - The report also discusses how the imposition of tariffs has a more pronounced negative effect on the demand for U.S. equities compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, as it raises costs for the private sector and increases recession risks [42][44] Group 4 - The evolution of overseas dollar asset demand shows that private sector investors have increasingly replaced official institutions as the main holders of U.S. assets, driven by the pursuit of higher returns and duration supply [52][70] - The report highlights that the labor productivity differences between the U.S. and other developed economies have led to a sustained increase in overseas investment in U.S. equities, as U.S. companies benefit from higher profit margins [70][75] - The report concludes that the shift in overseas dollar asset demand reflects a correction of previous trends where emerging markets diversified away from dollar assets, returning to a focus on labor productivity differences [77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the convertible bond market experienced a correction, with valuations compressing on a环比 basis. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 1.10%环比 [1]. - The large - cap value style was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth decreased by 0.54%环比, while large - cap value rose by 0.25%环比 [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 102.232 billion yuan, a环比 decrease of 5.32% [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 515.07, down 1.10%环比, up 3.22% in the recent week, 7.02% in the recent month, and 4.71% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76, down 0.64%环比, up 2.87% in the recent week, 6.85% in the recent month, and 4.28% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.40, down 1.37%环比, up 2.46% in the recent week, 7.77% in the recent month, and 4.76% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 102.232 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 3698.811 billion yuan. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 5.32%环比, while that of the A - share market increased by 1.49%环比 [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 128.654 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.66bp环比 to 1.85% [1]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 35.83%, a环比 decrease of 1.44pct, and the overall weighted par value was 104.79 yuan, a环比 decrease of 1.15% [2]. - The price median of convertible bonds was 137.18 yuan, a环比 decrease of 1.38% [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 71.05%, a环比 decrease of 1.91pct, and the proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range increased by 1.37pct环比 [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three sectors with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (- 5.50%), electronics (- 3.30%), and communications (- 2.88%); the top three sectors with the largest increases were petroleum and petrochemicals (+ 1.62%), pharmaceutical biology (+ 1.21%), and non - ferrous metals (+ 0.91%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three sectors with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (- 5.24%), building materials (- 4.74%), and electronics (- 3.27%); the top three sectors with the largest increases were pharmaceutical biology (+ 0.54%), steel (+ 0.07%), and banks (+ 0.04%) [3]. - In terms of different styles, the closing prices of large - cycle, manufacturing, technology, large - consumption, and large - finance sectors decreased by 1.53%, 1.04%, 2.91%, 0.96%, and 0.96%环比 respectively; the conversion premium rates changed by - 0.42pct, - 0.2pct, + 0.74pct, - 0.3pct, and - 0.085pct环比 respectively; the conversion values decreased by 1.38%, 0.66%, 3.92%, 0.60%, and 0.84%环比 respectively; the pure bond premium rates decreased by 2.1pct, 1.5pct, 5.7pct, 1.3pct, and 1.2pct环比 respectively [3][4].

Economic Indicators - The ratio of U.S. household net wealth to disposable income has risen to 7.9 times, up from 7.7 times in Q3 2024, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022, indicating recovery from the negative impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes[4] - The debt leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the U.S. has fallen below 100% for the first time in a decade, now at 98.8%[10] - The global share of U.S. dollars in foreign reserves has dropped to 56.9%, the lowest in 30 years, while the euro's share has increased to 20.3%[12] Market Performance - As of Q3 2025, the S&P 500 index has risen to 6,689 points, while the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has decreased to 329[4] - U.S. pension funds increased their equity holdings to $9.7 trillion in Q3 2025, up from $8.8 trillion in Q2 2025, with a funding gap now below $2 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2008[6] Productivity and Returns - U.S. labor productivity has increased by 66.8% since 1991, significantly outpacing other developed economies, with the Eurozone at 28.9%, Japan at 19.7%, and the UK at 17.6%[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is currently at 4%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[19] Financial Market Dynamics - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is currently at 37 basis points, which is 67 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -17 basis points, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 122.7 basis points, reflecting a rise in the use of the Fed's standing repo facility[25]