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【债券日报】:转债市场日度跟踪20260129-20260129
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 14:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 29, 2026, most industries in the convertible bond market corrected, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The convertible bond market's trading sentiment weakened, and the market style favored large - cap value stocks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.30%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 1.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.80% [2]. - In terms of market style, large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks increased by 0.76%, large - cap value stocks increased by 2.21%, mid - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.02%, mid - cap value stocks increased by 0.50%, small - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.43%, and small - cap value stocks remained unchanged [2]. II. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 81.418 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 325.9418 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.93%. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6.0222 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond increased by 0.10bp to 1.82% [2]. - The share of Boshi Convertible Bond ETF was 4.311 billion shares, with a net increase of 62.2 million shares; the share of Haifutong Convertible Bond ETF was 891 million shares, with a net decrease of 34.5 million shares [37][40]. III. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds decreased to 142.82 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 208.09 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 123.66 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 134.77 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [3]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased by 0.59 pct to 77.87%. The proportion of the 120 - 130 yuan (inclusive) range increased by 0.58 pct to 16.80%. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 140.54 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [3]. - The conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par - value fitting increased to 38.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 pct. The overall weighted par value decreased to 105.83 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [3]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds decreased by 0.95 pct to 19.09%; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds increased by 1.19 pct to 91.95%; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds decreased by 0.77 pct to 29.94% [3]. IV. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were food and beverage (+6.57%), media (+3.53%), and real estate (+2.65%); the top three falling industries were electronics (-3.56%), national defense and military industry (-1.79%), and power equipment (-1.78%) [4]. - In the convertible bond market, 21 industries fell. The top three falling industries were steel (-3.94%), electronics (-2.15%), and machinery and equipment (-2.05%); the top three rising industries were non - ferrous metals (+2.06%), communication (+1.27%), and media (+1.15%) [4]. - In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.66%, manufacturing industries decreased by 1.38%, technology industries decreased by 0.23%, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.17%, and large - finance industries increased by 0.25% [4]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.7 pct, manufacturing industries increased by 0.71 pct, technology industries increased by 0.25 pct, large - consumption industries increased by 0.79 pct, and large - finance industries increased by 0.16 pct [4]. - In terms of conversion value, large - cycle industries increased by 0.05%, manufacturing industries decreased by 2.02%, technology industries decreased by 0.53%, large - consumption industries increased by 0.06%, and large - finance industries increased by 1.35% [4]. - In terms of pure bond premium rate, large - cycle industries decreased by 1.0 pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 2.3 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.47 pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.23 pct, and large - finance industries increased by 0.28 pct [5]. V. Industry Rotation - Food and beverage, media, and real estate led the rise. The daily increase rates of food and beverage, media, and real estate were 6.57%, 3.53%, and 2.65% respectively in the A - share market [55]. - The report also provided the weekly, monthly, and year - to - date increase rates of various industries, as well as their valuation quantiles such as PE (TTM), 3 - year and 10 - year quantiles of PE and PB (LF) [55].
太平洋航运(02343):深度研究报告:经营稳健、穿越周期的小宗散运龙头船东,有望受益于行业持续复苏
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 13:16
港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 太平洋航运(02343.HK)深度研究报告 推荐(首次) 经营稳健、穿越周期的小宗散运龙头船东, 有望受益于行业持续复苏 ❖ 风险提示:宏观经济下行、运力供给过剩、油价大幅波动等。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] 航运 2026 年 01 月 29 日 目标价:3.70 港元 当前价:3.12 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:吴一凡 邮箱:wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360516090002 证券分析师:吴晨玥 邮箱:wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523070001 证券分析师:卢浩敏 邮箱:luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360524090001 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万美元) | 2,582 | 2,336 | 2,369 | 2,423 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.4% | -9.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | | ...
暂停降息,加息并非基准项——美联储1月议息会议点评
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 07:45
债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 暂停降息,加息并非基准项——美联储 1 月 议息会议点评 债券日报 2026 年 01 月 29 日 华创证券研究所 联系人:李阳 邮箱:liyang3@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】非银流动性工具的海外经验和国 内猜想:从 ONRRP 展开》 2026-01-27 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20260126》 2026-01-26 《【华创固收】2025 年度土地成交及城投拿地盘 点》 2026-01-23 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号:证监许可(2009)1210 号 证券分析师:周冠南 邮箱:zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360517090002 ❖ 北京时间 1 月 29 日凌晨,美联储自 2025 年 9 月连续三次降息后如期暂停降 息,将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%-3.75%,储备余额利率、贴现利率 在 3.65%、3.75%。自 2024 年 9 月开启降息周期以来,美联储已合计调降 175BP。 ❖ 一是利率声明方面,对经济前景的判断较 12 月有所改善,尤其是就业层面; ...
1月FOMC会议点评:今年联储降息的焦点在哪?
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 07:30
宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月 FOMC 会议点评 今年联储降息的焦点在哪? 主要观点 ❖ 1 月 FOMC 会议:暂停降息,符合预期 1、暂停降息,利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%,符合市场预期。12 位 FOMC 票委中, 2 票反对,理事米兰和沃勒希望降息 25BP。 2、与暂停降息相一致,本次会议声明对经济和就业的表述边际转向乐观。对 经济增长的表述从"温和扩张"转为"稳健扩张"。虽然"就业增长依然较低", 但是失业率从"上升"转为"呈现企稳迹象"。对通胀的表述,删除了"2025 年以来有所上升",但"依然较高"。 3、发布会上,鲍威尔认为通胀上行风险和就业下行风险有所减弱,后续决策 并未预设,加息不是基本假设。媒体关注重点在"美联储人事"、"金融市场波 动"(美元汇率波动、贵金属价格上涨)上,鲍威尔均直接回避,不予置评。 ❖ 今年联储降息的焦点在哪? 关于今年降息节奏和幅度,经济因素来看,重点在就业修复趋势,而非通胀掣 肘。非经济因素来看,重点在选举压力下的潜在财政刺激,而非联储人事变动。 从经济因素来看,重点在于就业修复趋势,而非通胀的掣肘。 关于就业,10 万或是分水岭。2 ...
1月美联储议息会议点评2026年第1期:美联储重回观望模式
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 05:45
多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 5 期 美联储重回"观望"模式 ——1 月美联储议息会议点评 2026 年第 1 期 投资摘要: The way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket. —Andrew Carnegie 1. 美联储 1 月份议息会议宣布,将联邦基金利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%区间不 变,删除就业市场下行风险的表述。 证券分析师:郭忠良 邮箱:guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 4 期:Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-01-26 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 3 期:Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-01-19 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 2 期:Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-01-13 ...
25年多数疫苗品种批签发均同比增长,兽药VPI指数同比上涨7.2%:动保行业12月跟踪报告
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 04:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the animal health industry, indicating an expectation of growth in the sector over the next 3-6 months, surpassing the benchmark index by more than 5% [4][80]. Core Insights - In 2025, the majority of vaccine varieties saw a year-on-year increase in batch approvals, with notable growth in new vaccine products [6][7]. - The Veterinary Product Index (VPI) for animal medicines increased by 7.2% year-on-year, although there was significant differentiation among product categories [51][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in driving performance among companies in the sector, highlighting that successful firms exhibit strong product, marketing, and capital operation innovations [68][71]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Batch Approvals - In December 2025, most vaccine products showed year-on-year growth in batch approvals, particularly in swine vaccines, with notable increases in foot-and-mouth disease vaccine (+24.2%) and pseudorabies vaccine (+1.2%) [6][7]. - For the entire year of 2025, swine vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease, pseudorabies, and swine fever vaccines saw increases of +6.4%, +5.1%, and +11.7% respectively, while some vaccines like blue ear and swine parvovirus vaccines experienced declines of -3.7% and -4.5% [7][8]. Animal Medicine Raw Materials - The VPI index for animal medicines rose by 7.2% year-on-year in 2025, with significant price increases in macrolide products such as tylosin (+29.5%) and tiamulin (+29.8%), while others like florfenicol and amoxicillin saw declines of -5.9% and -21.0% respectively [51][56]. - The report notes that the market for animal medicines is expected to remain weak in the short term due to ongoing pressures in the breeding sector and seasonal factors [56][68]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with improvement potential, particularly those demonstrating innovation in products and operations. Recommended companies include Zhongmu Co., Ltd., Reap Bio, and others [68][71].
CPU:供需格局优化,国产龙头或迎价值重估机遇:计算机行业重大事项点评
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 04:29
证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 CPU:供需格局优化,国产龙头或迎价值重估机遇 事项: 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 01 月 29 日 推荐(维持) 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:吴鸣远 邮箱:wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523040001 近期 KeyBanc 数据显示,受超大规模云服务商集中采购影响,英特尔与 AMD2026 年服务器 CPU 产能已基本售罄。为应对供需失衡,两家公司计划将 服务器 CPU 价格上调 10%-15%。 行业基本数据 评论: | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 64,097.52 | 4.97 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 57,930.71 | 5.58 | 计算机行业重大事项点评 计算机组团队介绍 首席分析师、组长:吴鸣远 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 10.8% | 20.3% | 41.3% | | 相对表现 | 9.5 ...
——1月美联储议息会议点评2026年第1期:美联储重回观望模式
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 04:10
多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 5 期 美联储重回"观望"模式 ——1 月美联储议息会议点评 2026 年第 1 期 投资摘要: The way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket. —Andrew Carnegie 1. 美联储 1 月份议息会议宣布,将联邦基金利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%区间不 变,删除就业市场下行风险的表述。 2. 美联储主席鲍威尔,比较罕见的提及货币政策立场的"正常化",这意味着 其剩余任期的降息门槛可能较高。 3. 暂停降息得到了广泛支持,即使鲍威尔卸任,打破这个暂停降息的共识也 是阻力重重。 4. 2026 年投资者可能转向美国科技风险和经济回暖风险的定价,相应海外 股市表现从估值差异驱动,回到盈利前景差异驱动。 风险提示: 中东爆发地缘政治冲突,欧债危机再度爆发,新兴市场债务危机 华创证券研究所 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 4 期:Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026- ...
业绩比较基准新规落地,比较及影响
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 02:50
证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 业绩比较基准新规落地,比较及影响 1 月 23 日,证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》,同日基 金业协会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则》。上述两项文 件分别从规则和实操层面对公募基金业绩比较基准的制定与执行作出规范。 本文聚焦债基视角,从正式稿与征求意见稿对比、债基业绩比较基准概况以及 新规对债市投资的影响三方面展开分析。 一、正式稿 VS 征求意见稿 《指引》作为顶层设计,划定监管红线与核心原则,共有六章二十一条。主要 内容包括明确基准的选取规范,严格基准的变更要求,加强基准的信息披露, 强化基准的约束作用,突出基准衡量业绩的作用等。 《操作细则》为《指引》的配套实操文件,对业绩比较基准相关内容进行了更 为详细的规定。此处重点关注明确提及债券基金业绩比较基准要求的三点:(1) 基准匹配:正式稿第十条,例如"对于基金合同中明确专注于特定市场、券种、 久期、信用等级的产品,原则上以相应市场、券种、久期、信用等级的债券指 数作为业绩比较基准要素"等。(2)基准信披:正式稿第十三条,货基、债基 定期报告的基准信披有所弱化。(3)基准跟踪:正式 ...
华创交运 红利资产月报(2026年1月):港口集装箱景气度相对较好,强调交运红利板块配置价值
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-29 00:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the transportation sector, emphasizing the value of transportation assets [1]. Core Insights - The port container sector shows relatively good market conditions, with only the port segment outperforming the CSI 300 and transportation indices [4][10]. - The overall performance of transportation assets is average, with highway and railway sectors underperforming [10][11]. - The report highlights a low interest rate environment, which is conducive to capital operations and market activity [20][21]. Monthly Market Performance - In January 2026, the performance of transportation assets was generally average, with only the port sector showing positive growth [4][8]. - The cumulative performance from January 1 to January 27, 2026, showed highways down by 1.50%, railways down by 3.14%, and ports up by 2.96% [10][11]. - The average daily transaction volume for ports increased significantly, while highway transaction volumes decreased [22]. Industry Data - Highway passenger traffic in November 2025 was 961 million, down 2.4% year-on-year, while freight traffic increased by 3.6% [33]. - Railway passenger volume in December 2025 was 323 million, up 8.5% year-on-year, while freight volume decreased by 2.6% [51]. - Port cargo throughput for the four weeks from December 29, 2025, to January 25, 2026, was 1.036 billion tons, up 4.3% year-on-year [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies high-dividend quality stocks in the transportation sector, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Daqin Railway for their stable growth and high dividend yields [4][19]. - It emphasizes the importance of capital operations and strategic investments in the highway and port sectors to enhance overall performance [29][30].