1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025, the bond market ended two consecutive years of rapid decline and entered a low - level oscillation. Due to the over - pursuit of interest rate cut expectations and capital gain games at the end of 2024, which over - exhausted the market's upward potential, the yield at the beginning of 2025 was at the annual low. Although the tariff disturbances in early April provided temporary support to the bond market, in the second half of the year, along with the repair of the stock - bond ratio and regulatory disturbances in the fund market, the bond market gradually adjusted, with the adjustment intensifying towards the end of the year and a significant increase in the ultra - long end. Driven by three main lines of central bank policy regulation, tariff games, and the stock - bond seesaw, the yield showed an "N - shaped" trend, and the ultra - long - term spread broke out of the low - level oscillation range, with the 30 - 10y Treasury term spread returning to the level of the second half of 2022 [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Annual Summary: Fast Bull Pause, Low - Level Balance - In 2025, the bond market shifted from a fast - bull market to a low - level balance. The yield started at a low point due to the over - speculation at the end of 2024. Throughout the year, it was affected by central bank policies, tariff games, and the stock - bond seesaw, showing an "N - shaped" trend [5][8]. - From January to March, the central bank tightened funds, causing the yield to rise to the annual high of 1.90%. From April to June, tariff disturbances and growth - stabilizing policies led to a narrow - range oscillation around 1.65%. From July to September, the stock - bond seesaw and regulatory new rules triggered an upward adjustment in yield. From October to the end of the year, factors such as tightened fund regulation, weakened monetary easing expectations, and supply - demand pressure in the ultra - long end led to a significant upward adjustment in the bond market [9]. 3.2 Stage Review: Central Bank → Tariff → Stock - Bond Seesaw, Yield "N - shaped" Trend 3.2.1 First Stage: Continuation of the Late - 2024 Rush - Ahead Market, Bond Market Reached the Annual Low - From late November 2024 to early January 2025, the reduction of non - bank inter - bank deposits in late November 2024 removed interest rate blockages, and the monetary policy turned "moderately loose". With the year - end rush - ahead by institutions, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped below 1.6% to 1.59% in early January 2025 [5][12]. 3.2.2 Second Stage: Central Bank's Tightening of Funds Broke the Interest Rate Downward Inertia, Bond Market Corrected to the Annual High - From early January to the end of March 2025, the central bank tightened funds to address long - term interest rate risks and "fund idling". The bond market returned to a positive carry situation, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.60% to the annual high of 1.89%. After the tax period and at the end of the quarter, with the central bank's active liquidity injection, the bond market stabilized and recovered to around 1.80% [13][18]. 3.2.3 Third Stage: Tariff Friction and Growth - Stabilizing Policy Game, Yield Declined and Then Turned to Oscillation - From April to June 2025, the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US on China in early April and the subsequent domestic growth - stabilizing policies led to a rapid decline in yield, which then entered a narrow - range oscillation around 1.65%. In May, after the implementation of policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, the bond market showed a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" pattern, and the yield oscillated upwards. In June, with the central bank's release of a "loose money" signal and other factors, the yield dropped slightly to 1.65% [2][19]. 3.2.4 Fourth Stage: "Anti - Involution" and Regulatory New Rules Triggered Adjustment Pressure, Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect Prominent - From July to September 2025, after the weakening of external disturbances in July, the "anti - involution" policy made the stock - bond seesaw effect prominent, and the news of new fund sales rules increased the concern of bond fund redemptions. The bond market entered a period of headwinds, with the yield rising significantly and the curve steepening [25]. 3.2.5 Fifth Stage: The Year - End Consensus Expectation Was Broken, Bond Market Oscillated Weakly - From October to December 2025, after the escalation of tariff frictions in October, concerns about fund regulation led to preventive redemptions of bond funds by institutional investors. The central bank's bond - buying scale was lower than expected, and risk events in the real estate market and supply - demand pressure in the ultra - long end led to a significant upward adjustment in the bond market, with the 30 - year Treasury leading the decline and the curve steepening [30].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Zhengte (001238) for the first time [1] Core Views - The company has successfully transformed its flagship product, the "Starry Canopy," into a best-seller and aims to evolve from a single product focus to a platform brand through replicating its successful product methodology and channel asset reuse [6][7] - The company is positioned as a leader in the outdoor canopy industry, with significant growth expected due to innovative product iterations and strong channel partnerships [6][8] - The report anticipates robust revenue growth driven by the successful introduction of the Starry Canopy into major retail channels like Costco and Sam's Club, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 2025 to 2027 [9][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,237 million in 2024 to 2,945 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2] - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 14 million in 2024 to a profit of 235 million by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -0.13 in 2024 to 2.12 in 2027, indicating a strong turnaround [2] Company Overview - Zhejiang Zhengte has been deeply involved in the outdoor leisure furniture and products industry for nearly 30 years, with a focus on three core business lines: shading products, outdoor furniture, and camping [14] - The company has established partnerships with major retailers, including Walmart and Costco, enhancing its market presence [14][46] - The management team is stable and experienced, with a concentrated ownership structure that supports long-term strategic goals [21][14] Competitive Advantages - The company emphasizes innovation and iteration in product design, combining international design with local research and development [32][40] - Strong channel partnerships with high-profile clients create a competitive barrier, ensuring stable and large order volumes [46][48] - The supply chain is vertically integrated, which enhances cost efficiency and delivery capabilities, further strengthening the company's market position [53][56]

PMI Overview - December manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November[1] - The production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value of 50.0%[1] - New orders index improved to 50.8%, up from 49.2%[1] - New export orders index increased to 49.0%, compared to 47.6% previously[1] Influencing Factors - Year-end factors contributed to a rise in construction PMI to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from 49.6%[4] - Seasonal effects led to a strong production index at 51.7%, marking the highest for the quarter[5] - External demand showed resilience with the new export orders index at 49.0%, indicating a recovery in exports[6] Price and Inventory Insights - December's PMI factory price index was 48.9%, slightly up from 48.2%, remaining below the neutral line[2] - The main raw materials purchase price index stood at 53.1%, above the neutral line, indicating ongoing high demand[2] - Inventory indicators showed signs of replenishment, with the purchasing index at 51.1%, up from 49.5%[23] Economic Outlook - Manufacturing activity expectations index rose to 55.5%, up from 53.1%, reflecting improved sentiment[24] - Comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production activities[24]

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 智能眼镜首次纳入国补，看好消费级产品渗 透率加速提升 事项： ❖ 25 年 12 月 30 日，国家发改委、财政部发布 2026 年国补政策，首次将智能眼 镜纳入补贴范围，补贴标准为 15%，单件补贴上限 500 元（单件产品售价不超 过 6000 元）。根据测算，智能眼镜价格超过 3300 元基本可以全额享受国补。 评论： 其他轻工Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | 目标价：63.63 | 港元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：51.80 | 港元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com ❖ 风险提示：智能眼镜发展不及预期、国内渠道拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 宽松过峰，股债重估 ❖ 核心观点 1、由于总量政策"摆脱超常规"叠加央行"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 的表述，我们预计短期政府债增速和贷款增速或边际回落，这一过程或带来一 季度 M2 同比的持续下行。 2、考虑到近期市场波动率的小幅提升，居民存款加速搬家的概率不高的前提 下，M2 同比的回落会引致宏观流动性最宽松的时刻正在过去，历史经验来看， 这会对资产估值造成冲击。 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外， 其景气相对独立，因此国内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供 给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合 理空间，相对视角下，我们的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下 股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资产的话，只要经济 循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事件打破循环，国内政策有望随时加码改善流动性 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.1, representing a potential upside of 64% from the current price of HKD 10.98 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "takeaway war" has ignited a new journey in instant retail, termed "everything to home," highlighting the significant growth potential in the instant retail sector [4][21]. - The company is identified as the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, benefiting from the synergy of its independent third-party status and the broader ecosystem of SF Express [8][9]. - Financial performance shows a continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margins improving from -36.4% to 0.93% over the same period [8][9]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Market - Instant retail is characterized by online ordering and offline fulfillment, aiming to meet local immediate demands, with a projected market size of RMB 781 billion in 2024, growing at 20.15% year-on-year [4][38]. - The competition among major players like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has intensified, with significant subsidies driving daily order volumes to record highs [13][14][15]. - The report outlines three main service models in instant retail: front warehouses, comprehensive instant retail platforms, and store-warehouse integrated self-operated models [23][26][30]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as the leading third-party instant delivery service provider, leveraging the SF Express brand reputation and service capabilities to create a synergistic effect [8][9]. - The internal and external growth mechanisms, termed "dual flywheel," are driving significant revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in net profit from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 707 million by 2027 [9][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 15.746 billion in 2024 to RMB 32.731 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 8.1 billion by 2027, with a corresponding adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [9][5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 推荐（维持） 北京出台楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 31 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.3% | 6.6% | -1.5% | | 相对表现 | -8.1% | -11.5% | -17.8% | -13% -2% 9% 21% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 2024-12-31~2025-12-30 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On December 30, the convertible bond industry showed mixed performance in terms of gains and losses, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose [2]. - The convertible bond valuations increased [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, while in the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.14% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.04% [1]. - **Market Style**: Mid - cap growth was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.57%, large - cap value fell 0.13%, mid - cap growth rose 0.81%, mid - cap value rose 0.66%, small - cap growth rose 0.66%, and small - cap value rose 0.34% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.057 billion yuan, a 2.96% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.161532 trillion yuan, a 0.18% month - on - month increase; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.828 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.02 bp to 1.86% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.53 yuan, a 0.09% month - on - month increase. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 202.44 yuan, a 1.47% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.85 yuan, a 0.18% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.71 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 59.95%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase. The largest change in proportion occurred in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range, with a proportion of 28.01%, a 1.39 - percentage - point decrease. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.60 yuan, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 33.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the overall weighted par value was 101.88 yuan, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 18.25%, a 1.38 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.78%, a 2.11 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.17%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Market**: Among the A - share industries, the top three decliners were Commerce and Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), and Utilities (-1.14%); the top three gainers were Petroleum and Petrochemical (+2.63%), Automobile (+1.35%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.31%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond industries, the top three gainers were Automobile (+2.08%), Petroleum and Petrochemical (+1.25%), and Textile and Apparel (+0.77%); the top three decliners were Environmental Protection (-2.57%), National Defense and Military Industry (-1.23%), and Building Materials (-1.16%) [3]. - **By Category**: - **Closing Price**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.38%, manufacturing increased by 0.54%, technology decreased by 0.24%, large - consumption increased by 0.10%, and large - finance decreased by 0.05% [3]. - **Conversion Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.21 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.57 percentage points, technology increased by 0.028 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.63 percentage points, and large - finance increased by 0.79 percentage points [3]. - **Conversion Value**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.74%, manufacturing increased by 0.17%, technology decreased by 0.36%, large - consumption decreased by 0.43%, and large - finance decreased by 0.20% [3]. - **Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.55 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.81 percentage points, technology decreased by 0.16 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.12 percentage points, and large - finance decreased by 0.065 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Industries such as Petroleum and Petrochemical, Automobile, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains. For example, Petroleum and Petrochemical had a daily increase of 2.63% in the underlying stock market and 1.25% in the convertible bond market; Automobile had a 1.35% increase in the underlying stock market and 2.08% in the convertible bond market [54].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 格力电器（000651）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 主营承压下盈利能力改善，制造体系持续夯实 事项： ❖ 2025 年 11 月，工信部公示《2025 年度领航级智能工厂项目培育名单》，格力 电器旗下"全价值链格力协同屋空调智能工厂"项目入选（全国首批仅 15 家）， 公司智能制造能力与示范效应获得国家级层面认可。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：新品开拓不及预期、原材料价格上涨。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 190,038 | 179,515 | 187,740 | 196,561 | | 同比增速(%) | -7.3% | -5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 32,185 | 30,058 | 32,279 | 34,156 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.9% | -6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 5.75 | 5. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 87.6 CNY per share [2][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's differentiated innovation capabilities, particularly through the integration of its research and development (R&D) systems, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the pharmaceutical market [8][9]. - The company has made significant strides in its product pipeline, particularly in the controlled narcotics sector, and is poised to become a leader in this field [26][27]. - The integration of Shanghai Chaoyang, focusing on targeted protein degradation, is expected to bolster the company's R&D capabilities and expand its product offerings [9][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 1,350 million, 1,376 million, 1,567 million, and 1,933 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 2.0%, 13.8%, and 23.4% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 238 million, 277 million, 316 million, and 388 million CNY for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 5.1%, 16.2%, 14.0%, and 22.9% [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 44, 38, 34, and 27 for the years 2024A to 2027E [3]. R&D and Product Pipeline - The company has established a robust pipeline in the controlled narcotics sector, with recent approvals for key products such as Buprenorphine and Butorphanol, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth [26][28]. - The report highlights the potential of HP-001, a leading candidate in the targeted protein degradation space, which has shown promising clinical results [9][10]. - The integration of R&D efforts between Chengdu Yuandong and Shanghai Chaoyang is anticipated to create a dual-pathway for innovation, enhancing the company's overall R&D efficiency [9][10].