www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年6月7日 | 华创医药团队： | | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第129期 痛风用药蓝海大市场，关注在研新药进展 本周专题联系人：朱珂琛 本报告由华 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年6月7日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第129期 痛风用药蓝海大市场，关注在研新药进展 本周专题联系人：朱珂琛 | 华创医药团队： | | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | 本报告由华 ...

综合资金缺口看，刚性因素中，6 月一般存款增长冻结的准备金规模或在 2256 亿元附近，货币发行及非金融机构存款或小幅消耗流动性 1152 亿元左右；工 具到期方面，1.2 万亿的买断式逆回购到期，6 月已前置操作 1 万亿，关注后 续是否有"加场"操作，MLF 到期量在 1820 亿元，规模相对有限，若月末资 金压力增大，或依旧是延续超额续作的思路。财政因素中，6 月财政支出有所 加大，但或主要体现在季末，叠加政府债券发行规模不小，政府存款对于流动 性的补充或在 4000 亿元附近，略低于去年水平。合计 6 月流动性缺口在 1.4 万亿附近，考虑 1 万亿买断式逆回购已经投放，整体资金缺口压力相对有限。 跨半年央行多以呵护为主，预计资金大幅收敛的风险相对可控。6 月初 DR007 中枢较利率的偏离度在 15bp 附近，DR001 接近 1.4%水平，买断式逆回购前置 操作，整体有利于稳定资金预期。从历史情况看，以往 6 月除 2020 年处于货 币政策收紧区间，资金价格明显走高；以及 2019 年 6 月包商银行接管事件爆 发后，央行为维稳大量投放流动性，DR007 资金价格有所下行外，其余年份 DR007 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huamao Technology (603306) [1] Core Views - The acquisition plan exceeds expectations, with Huamao Technology's major shareholder subscribing to supporting funds, demonstrating confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company plans to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue, increasing its ownership from 42.16% to 100% [1] - Fuchuang Youyue is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.78 billion yuan from January to April 2025 [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,213 million, 2,908 million, 3,494 million, and 4,186 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 31.4%, 20.2%, and 19.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 277 million, 590 million, 748 million, and 934 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.6%, 112.7%, 26.8%, and 24.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.84, 1.79, 2.27, and 2.84 yuan for 2024A to 2027E [3] - The target price is set at 51.28 yuan, with the current price at 40.15 yuan [4] Business Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive passive safety market, with significant overseas expansion plans [8] - The global airbag market exceeds 10 billion USD, and the increasing configuration rate of airbags per vehicle is expected to drive market growth [8] - The company has established a new base in Vietnam, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2025 [8] - The company is actively investing in the AI sector, with plans to enhance its capabilities in semiconductor and computing power manufacturing [8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 回归基本面，产业债行业有哪些变化？ ——年报、一季报分析 ❖ 产业债发行主体 2024 年经营整体承压，行业表现分化。产业债主体营业总收 入、净利润整体水平同比均有所下降，亏损企业占比由 2023 年的 18%提升至 2024 年的 21%，其中少数行业营收与净利润正增长。今年中航产融事件进一 步凸显了宏观经济偏弱环境下对发债主体基本面研究的重要性，当前各项宏观 政策继续发力显效，外部环境仍复杂严峻，年内经济基本面预计将延续内需托 底、外需承压、政策护航的特征，关注稳增长政策发力下主体基本面改善情况。 ❖ 各行业年报与一季报表现如何？ 1、整体情况分析：从 2024 年年报来看，产业债主体营收合计同比下降 2%， 净利润合计同比下降 4%，利润亏损企业占比提升，由 2023 年的 18%提升至 2024 年的 21%，近年来持续增长。从披露一季报主体情况来看，2025 年 Q1 产 业债主体营收整体水平同比下降 2%，净利润整体持平。 2、行业表现：2024 年营收实现正增长行业占比约三分之一；净利润实现正增 长行业占比约四成，略高于营收；近半数行业资产负债率有所增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huamao Technology (603306) [1] Core Views - The acquisition plan exceeds expectations, with Huamao Technology's major shareholder subscribing to supporting funds, demonstrating confidence in the company's performance [1] - The company plans to acquire the remaining equity of Fuchuang Youyue, increasing its stake from 42.16% to 100%, with expected net profit of 0.78 billion yuan from Fuchuang Youyue in the first four months of 2025 [1] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the automotive passive safety market and accelerating overseas expansion, with significant revenue contributions expected from its new manufacturing base in Vietnam [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,213 million yuan in 2024 to 4,186 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 934 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 2.84 yuan in 2027 [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 51.28 yuan, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 40.15 yuan [4] Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic automotive passive safety sector, with plans to leverage its overseas production capacity to capture more market share [8] - The report highlights the growing demand for AI-related infrastructure, with Huamao Technology's acquisition of Fuchuang Youyue aimed at establishing a second growth curve in the AI sector [8] - The company is expected to continue investing in semiconductor and computing manufacturing, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [8]

❖ 核心观点：综合考虑关税不确定性下出口主要矛盾、数据可得性、跟踪及时性 等因素后，我们构建出口 6 大类别、16 大指标高频跟踪框架（图 1），这些指 标目前显示的出口叙事是：4 月美国新增关税对需求的压制似乎逐渐体现在 5 月出口数据上，用于跟踪出口"量"的主要高频指标均边际走弱。此外，5 月 12 日，中美签署日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，市场预期的"抢出口"潮目前 只从运价指标（北美航线运价暴涨）以及美国 Markit 制造业 PMI 新订单和 采购库存指数上看到一些端倪，出口"量"的高频似乎还看不到有"抢出口" 的迹象。 ❖ 一、把握关税不确定性对出口冲击的核心矛盾 特朗普关税反复无常，静态估算关税对中国整体出口冲击，误差可能较大。因 此，对市场而言更重要的可能是，从宏观层面把握关税对出口传导路径的核心 矛盾，抓住影响核心矛盾的关键变量，以及从客观高频或者同步指标层面密切 跟踪关键变量的变化。本文旨在构建一个关税不确定性背景下更加实用的出口 高频跟踪框架。 ❖ 二、关税不确定性下的出口高频跟踪框架 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 不止是"出口"——中国出口研判进阶手册 （一）如何跟踪全球贸易需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company held an investor communication meeting on June 5, 2025, where management addressed strategic planning, product planning, and reform progress, providing guidance for investors [2]. - Yanjing Beer is focusing on the U8 product line, which has shown strong sales momentum, achieving over 400,000 tons in the first five months of 2025, representing a 45% completion of the annual target [7]. - The company is committed to optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency through digital systems and cost management reforms, which are expected to release profit elasticity [7]. - The management aims to catch up with leading companies in the industry during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing innovation and operational improvements [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 14,667 million CNY in 2024 to 15,439 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 1,056 million CNY in 2024 to 1,451 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.4% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.37 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown a strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, indicating a positive market sentiment towards Yanjing Beer [6].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 买断式逆回购前进一步 ——0605 央行操作点评 2025 年 6 月 5 日，公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告[2025]第 1 号发布。公告显 示为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025 年 6 月 6 日，中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限 3 个月。 一、买断式逆回购前置操作 （1）操作规模延续小幅净回笼。2025 年 4 至 6 月连续三月买断式逆回购延续 净回笼状态，当前买断式余额在 4.2 万亿附近。6 月买断式逆回购前置操作， 或主要考虑下周起存单大量到期以及政府债券集中发行的影响。 （2）操作时间前置，到账节奏或加快。6 月买断式逆回购操作首次在操作前 日披露具体操作规模。后续月份或延续前一天发布公告的方式，与 MLF 操作 模式保持一致，有利于参与机构提前做好流动性安排。 （3）操作频次原则上 1 次，后续关注是否"加场"。2024 年 10 月 28 日，买 断式逆回购操作设立时显示，原则上每月开展一次操作。本次工具开展后，考 虑 6 月资金缺口压力依然偏大，且未进行 6 个月期限操作， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250605 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.17%、上证综指环比上涨 0.23%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.58%、创业板指环比上涨 1.17%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.05%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.72%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.42%、大盘价值环比下降 0.25%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.28%、中盘价值环比下降 0.50%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.73%、小盘价值环比下降 0.33%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 673.96 亿元，环比 增长 4.69%；万得全 A 总成交额为 13169.62 亿元，环比增长 11.85%；沪深两 市主力净流出 3.59 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.37bp 至 1.67%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 119.78 元，环比昨日上升 0.22%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 163.72 元，环比 上升 2.22%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 111.02 ...