Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Planning, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - Suzhou Planning aims to acquire Dongjin Aviation Technology to enter the low-altitude economy sector, with a transaction price of 250 million yuan, and the acquisition has been approved by the shareholders [5][15]. - Dongjin Aviation is recognized as a pioneer in low-altitude digitalization, providing comprehensive solutions from airspace planning to air traffic management infrastructure [8][25]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies, enhancing profitability and providing new solutions for urban three-dimensional planning [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Suzhou Planning has a total share capital of 11.44 million shares, with a market capitalization of 2.48 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1.62 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.94% and a net asset value per share of 8.38 yuan [2]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Dongjin Aviation involves issuing 10.873 million shares at 17.97 yuan per share, representing 8.68% of the post-transaction total share capital [5][18]. - Dongjin Aviation has committed to achieving net profits of no less than 15 million, 25 million, and 35 million yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [5][19]. Financial Analysis - Suzhou Planning's net profit for 2024 is projected at 29 million yuan, with a significant decline of 62.8% year-on-year [6]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 11 million yuan for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 and 2027, reaching 21 million and 25 million yuan, respectively [6][9]. - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 220, 117, and 98, respectively [9]. Market Potential - The report highlights a significant market opportunity in the low-altitude economy, estimating a government-level market size in the hundreds of billions [10]. - Dongjin Aviation has a robust order backlog of 103 million yuan and is tracking contracts worth 760 million yuan [8][10]. Strategic Fit - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to integrate ground and airspace planning capabilities, addressing industry pain points and aligning with the trends in low-altitude economic development [23][10]. - The report emphasizes the unique positioning of Suzhou Planning in the low-altitude digitalization sector post-acquisition, enhancing its competitive edge [10][12].

宏观研究 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 等待"两大会"召开——政策周观察第 58 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要有以下内容。短期内，关注中央政治局会议和中 央经济工作会议"两大会"召开。 1、12 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《推进党的自我革命 要做到"五个进一步到位"》。文章中，习近平总书记指出"对党的自我革命认 识要进一步到位……我们党进行自我革命，刀刃向内、激浊扬清、刮骨疗毒， 非但不会影响党的形象和威信，反而能够提高党的形象和威信；非但不会挫伤 党员干部的积极性，反而能够更广泛更充分地调动党员干部的积极性；非但不 会影响经济社会发展，反而能够为高质量发展提供坚强政治保证"，"党员干部 增强党性要进一步到位"，"权力规范运行要进一步到位"，"从严监督执纪要进 一步到位"，"落实管党治党责任要进一步到位"。 2、资本市场：1）12 月 5 日，国家金融监管总局调整保险公司相关业务风险 因子，"针对保险公司投资的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数 成分股以及科创板股票的风险因子，根据持仓时间进行了差异 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is limited while demand remains resilient, leading to expectations of fluctuating prices in the future [9][10] - The global oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, with a significant reduction of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to 2021 [9][10] - Major energy companies are cautious with capital expenditures due to long-term low oil prices and increasing decarbonization pressures [9][10] - OPEC+ has announced no further production increases for the next year, indicating limited supply growth [9][10] Crude Oil - Brent crude oil spot price is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.87% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price is $59.33 per barrel, up 1.23% week-on-week [10][32] - The market is responding to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have contributed to price fluctuations [10][32] Coal - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 802.7 yuan per ton, down 3.32% week-on-week, indicating weak demand and rising inventories [11][12] - Total coal inventory at major ports in the Bohai Rim reached 27.61 million tons, up 3.77% week-on-week, while southern ports reported 6.426 million tons, up 2.57% [11][12] - Domestic key power plants reported a daily coal consumption of 4.77 million tons, down 3.44% week-on-week, with coal inventory at 13.01 million tons, up 2.09% [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are declining due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the price of main coking coal at 1,630 yuan per ton, down 2.40% week-on-week [13][14] - Steel mills are showing cautious purchasing behavior due to lower profitability, impacting coking coal demand [13][14] Natural Gas - The EU has reached an agreement to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, which may impact global gas supply dynamics [15][16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas is $4.95 per million British thermal units, up 7.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have decreased [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies supporting energy security and capital expenditures [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally is reported at 1,800, with a slight decrease in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the consumer services industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The integration pace in the cultural tourism industry is accelerating, with significant mergers and acquisitions indicating a shift from fragmented growth to resource optimization and brand specialization [2] - The acquisition of Junting Hotel by Hubei Cultural Tourism Group for approximately 1.5 billion yuan highlights the trend of state-owned enterprises and leading private companies enhancing their core competitiveness through asset integration [6] - The tourism sector is increasingly recognized as a vital driver of domestic demand and consumption, with a strategic role in local economic development [6] Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 457.1 billion yuan [3] Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.65% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.28% [4][9] Important Announcements - Junting Hotel has become a subsidiary of Hubei Cultural Tourism Group, marking a significant shift in ownership and control [33] - Meituan reported a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, but faced substantial losses in its core local business segment [34] - Yadu Group achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [34] Future Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in December, including ST United and Xi'an Tourism [36]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 49 期 出口高频维持韧性 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装 箱吞吐量环比-0.3%，上周环比为+5.4%，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6%，上周为 10%，10 月 26 日四周同比为 6.6%。 2、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售同比增速+2%，前值-7%。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比-7%。10 月全月同比为+5.8%。 3、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品房成交面积同比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。10 月同比为- 26%。11 月 24 日当周，二手房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线 城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1%，全国累计下跌 5.5%。 4、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨。本周南华综合指数、RJ/CRB 商品价格指数分别上涨 1%、1.5%。蔬菜批价上涨 2.4%，鸡蛋批价上涨 1. ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦 从量、价、高低切看，本轮指数调整或已到位 11/21 上证指数跌破 MA60，为近半年首次。历史数据显示牛市中跌破 MA60 前 10 日平均跌幅达 5%，跌破后 10 日仅跌 2%，且 30 日内多收复失地。当前 指数自跌破 MA60 仅微跌 1%，显示调整或已到位。量能方面，全 A 成交额与 换手率分别回落至 16962 亿元和 3.19%，低于历史跌破后 10 日均值（测算成 交额 17147 亿元、换手率 3.38%），显示缩量基本完成。此外，行业分化指标 （前 5-后 5 行业涨幅差）从 10/9 的 69pct 高位回落至 11/21 的 47pct，目前已 回升至 60pct，叠加通信、有色、电新等前期领跌板块反弹，高低切或已结束。 当下需重点关注万科债务展期或在短期内加剧地产风险 尽管万科展期暂避违约，但若融资环境恶化，或引发房企信用连锁反应。当下 核心风险在于可能触发金融机构对国有房企的系统性信任危机，影响已超个体 流动性困境，或重塑国企地产信用评估逻辑，并对宏观流动性构成潜在冲击。 本轮春季躁动的启动可能受内外关键事件所驱 ...

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the need to monitor redemption disturbances and suggests seizing the value of coupon assets during high points [2][11] - Current yields for 1-year products range from 1.73% to 1.82%, with spreads within 20 basis points, which is lower by 10-16 basis points compared to the lowest point in 2024, indicating low cost-effectiveness [2][32] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.87% and 2.12%, with spreads from 17 to 35 basis points, still having 1-8 basis points of room compared to 2024's lowest spreads [2][32] - The 4-5 year products show yields from 2.03% to 2.31%, with spreads between 23 and 47 basis points, which have compressed slightly due to institutional configurations, enhancing cost-effectiveness [2][32] - Long-term credit products (5 years and above) offer coupon advantages but test the stability of liabilities, with institutions needing to be cautious in the current volatile market [3][34] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general rise in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, influenced by new fund sales regulations and policy expectations ahead of major meetings [11][12] - Short and medium-term pure bond fund net values have declined, with a cumulative drop of 1.71 basis points and 11.82 basis points respectively over the week [12][18] - The report notes that institutional investors have been net sellers of bonds, with a total net sell-off of 22.477 billion yuan, particularly in the 7-10 year category, while insurance and wealth management products continue to increase their credit bond allocations [22][24] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights the optimization of merger note mechanisms by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, which broadens the support for mergers and enhances funding flexibility [4][36] - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi province aims to improve strategic decision-making efficiency and clarify regulatory boundaries [4][37] - In Chongqing, several state-owned enterprises have consolidated financial equity through stock transfers, leading to more effective management of financial resources [4][37]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（1201-1207）：财政助益下，跨年 压力或有限 债券周报 2025 年 12 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会— ...