Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks and rose, with an increase in valuation [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.40%, large - cap value fell 0.17%, mid - cap growth rose 1.05%, mid - cap value rose 0.91%, small - cap growth rose 0.97%, and small - cap value rose 1.07% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.204 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.42%; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1.748742 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.29%; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.444 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.48bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.77 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 192.56 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 119.54 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.14 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 55.32%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58pct; the largest change occurred in the 110 - 120 (including 120) range, with a proportion of 9.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5pct; there was 1 bond with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 131.51 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 32.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14pct; the overall weighted par value was 99.53 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 84.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10pct [2]. Industry Performance - On December 19, most underlying stock industries rose, with 27 industries rising. In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were commerce and retail (+3.66%), light industry manufacturing (+2.17%), and environmental protection (+2.06%); the top three industries in terms of decline were banking (-0.44%), electronics (-0.29%), and coal (-0.29%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 23 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were environmental protection (+4.16%), building materials (+2.40%), and building decoration (+1.65%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - bank finance (-1.26%), national defense and military industry (-0.16%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector increased by 1.53% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.49%, the technology sector increased by 0.21%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.46%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.68% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.5pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.33pct, the technology sector decreased by 0.96pct, the large - consumption sector decreased by 1.8pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.86pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.65% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.69%, the technology sector increased by 0.99%, the large - consumption sector increased by 1.19%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.47% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.1pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.75pct, the technology sector increased by 0.27pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.56pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.79pct [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the development of oral SERDs for breast cancer treatment. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent FDA approval of Imlunestrant, an oral SERD developed by Eli Lilly, for the treatment of ER+/HER2–/ESR1 mutant advanced or metastatic breast cancer, marking it as the second oral SERD approved after Elacestrant [18][19] - The EMBER-3 trial results indicate that Imlunestrant significantly improves progression-free survival (PFS) compared to standard endocrine therapy, with a median PFS of 5.5 months versus 3.8 months for standard therapy [23] - Giredestrant, developed by Roche, has shown positive results in the III phase evERA trial, demonstrating significant benefits in PFS compared to standard treatment in patients previously treated with CDK4/6 inhibitors [27] - Camizestrant, another oral SERD from AstraZeneca, has shown promising efficacy in the SERENA-6 trial, with a median PFS of 16.6 months when combined with CDK4/6 inhibitors [33] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Innovative Drugs - The report reviews the advancements in innovative drugs, particularly in the field of breast cancer treatment, emphasizing the importance of oral SERDs [2][5] Section 2: Current Status of ER+ Breast Cancer Therapies - The report discusses the current landscape of therapies for ER+ breast cancer, including the mechanisms of action for various anti-estrogen therapies and the challenges of resistance faced by patients [10][8] Section 3: Clinical Development of New Oral SERDs - The report details the clinical development progress of several new oral SERDs, including Imlunestrant, Giredestrant, and Camizestrant, highlighting their respective phases and trial outcomes [12][11][33] Section 4: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The report provides insights into the market dynamics of the biotech sector, including stock performance of key companies involved in the development of innovative cancer therapies [46][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, focusing on AI equipment and consumables, as well as nuclear fusion [1]. Core Insights - The AI wave is initiating a new cycle in intelligent manufacturing, shifting investment focus towards assets that can define the future and support the AI trend [18]. - The nuclear fusion sector is accelerating, with significant project announcements indicating a robust investment environment, projecting a global market size nearing 500 billion USD by 2030 [6][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary and fiscal policies in stimulating domestic demand, suggesting a new recovery cycle for the equipment industry [6]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from the AI trend, with human-like robots and AI PCB equipment being key areas of growth [18][20]. - Solid-state batteries are projected to see accelerated development, with significant capital expenditure expected in the equipment sector [21]. - The report highlights the potential of controlled nuclear fusion as a sustainable energy source, with ongoing projects enhancing the industry's viability [22]. - Domestic demand for construction machinery is recovering, supported by large infrastructure projects and a global economic rebound [23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [2][7]. - The report lists several companies across various sectors, including AI equipment, robotics, and engineering machinery, as key investment opportunities [6][19]. Market Performance - The mechanical sector has shown a mixed performance, with a recent decline of 1.7% in the sector index, while individual stocks have varied significantly in their weekly performance [10][14]. - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with fluctuations in stock prices reflecting broader economic conditions [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook due to easing inflation and rising commodity prices [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data has exceeded market expectations, but the reliability of new inflation and employment data may be limited due to the recent government shutdown. Precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile, with continued demand for gold as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties. Silver prices have recently surged past $65 per ounce, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints [3][4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for copper concentrate has been set at $0 per ton for 2026, indicating a significant reduction in smelting fees and increasing expectations for production cuts in copper smelting [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that overseas production cut expectations are strengthening, particularly with the announcement of maintenance shutdowns at major aluminum smelting facilities, which, combined with domestic inventory reductions, is expected to support aluminum prices [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **View 1**: U.S. CPI and employment data may lack credibility, leading to volatile precious metal prices. Gold is expected to maintain its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while silver prices are supported by supply-demand imbalances [3]. - **View 2**: New copper concentrate long-term contract prices are set low, increasing expectations for smelting production cuts, which may support higher copper prices [3]. - **View 3**: Strengthening overseas production cut expectations and ongoing domestic inventory reductions are likely to push aluminum prices higher [4]. Company Insights - **Company Activity**: Luoyang Molybdenum plans to acquire South American gold mines, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [10]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The report recommends stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, as well as copper and aluminum stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [11]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Lithium Market**: The recovery progress of the Jiangxi lithium mine may be slower than expected, leading to upward pressure on lithium prices due to supply tightness [12]. - **Cobalt Prices**: Cobalt salt prices have been rising, supported by slow export approval processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to tighter supply conditions [13][14]. - **Company Activity**: Tianqi Lithium's expansion project is progressing, which will enhance its production capacity and improve profitability [15]. Aluminum Industry Data Tracking - **Production and Inventory**: The report tracks significant data on aluminum production, inventory levels, and profit margins, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports price stability [22][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the imminent IPOs of major AI model companies, such as Zhiyu and MiniMax, indicating a significant opportunity for investment in the AI sector as domestic computing power continues to develop [4][18]. - The report emphasizes that 2026 will be a critical window for the commercial application of AI in enterprises, with a focus on multi-modal and physical AI, as well as edge AI [4]. - Zhiyu's upcoming IPO is seen as a pivotal event for independent AI model companies in China, potentially leading to a market consolidation where leading firms gain a larger market share [4][18]. - The report projects that the Chinese large language model market will grow from 5.3 billion RMB in 2024 to 101.1 billion RMB by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 63.5% [4]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 56,738.11 billion RMB and a circulating market value of 51,410.85 billion RMB [1]. - The report notes a recent decline in the computer index by 1.58% over the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase of 0.03% [4]. - The report identifies key players in the AI sector, including Zhiyu and MiniMax, which are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI applications in various industries [4]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the computer industry over the past month is -4.8%, with a 19.5% increase over the past six months and a 13.3% increase over the past year [2]. - The report indicates that the industry is experiencing a beta market trend, driven by the upcoming IPOs and advancements in AI technology [4].

华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20251215-20251221） 推荐（维持） 中小银行"减量提质"加速推进 行业研究 银行 2025 年 12 月 21 日 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -9% 3% 14% 26% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 2024-12-23~2025-12- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 12 月 21 日 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/12/15~2025/12/19） 市场交投活跃度环比下行，贴水幅度有所 推荐（维持） 收敛 1）沪深 300 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.2%/-1.3%/-7.9%；2）中 证 1000 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.6%/-1.7%/-2.7%；3）中证 2000 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为+0.3%/-0.1%/+6.4%；4）微盘股相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为+3%/-4.4%/+42.5%。 1）沪深 300 周/月/年初以来日均成交额分别为 4042/4187/3998 亿元，环比 -12.4%/-48.8%/+0.6%；2）中证 500 周/月/年初以来日均成交额分别为 2913/2855/2802 亿 元，环比 -9.4%/-48%/+0.8% ；3）中 证 1000 周 /月 /年初以来日均成交额分别为 3624/3692/3579 亿元，环比-8.3%/-44.3%/+0.5%；4） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, suggesting that the sector is expected to bottom out and presents a good opportunity for early investment in the upcoming year [3]. Core Insights - Traditional vehicle stocks continue to show weak performance, which is anticipated as the market awaits clarity on 1Q policies and retail trends. The report suggests that the current moment is a favorable time for positioning [3]. - The report highlights significant interest in the intelligent driving sector, particularly with L3 level autonomous driving vehicles, which are expected to gain traction in 2026 due to potential policy and standard implementations [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the automotive sector's recovery, particularly focusing on companies like Geely and JAC, which are expected to benefit from high-end product strategies and international expansion [5]. Data Tracking - In early December, the discount rate for vehicles decreased slightly, with an average discount amount of 22,156 yuan, down 1,238 yuan from the previous month. The discount rate was reported at 9.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - In October, wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. However, retail sales fell to 2.09 million units, down 9.2% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month [5]. - In November, BYD's delivery volume was 480,186 units, showing a significant month-on-month increase of 8.7%, while traditional automaker Geely's sales reached 310,000 units, up 24.0% year-on-year [6][26]. Industry News - On December 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two L3 level autonomous driving vehicle models from Changan Automobile and BAIC Blue Valley [9][32]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance index increased by 0.09% this week, ranking 9th out of 29 sectors [10]. - The report mentions that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units in December, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.4% but a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [34].

- The report discusses multiple quantitative timing models for A-shares, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. The short-term models include the Volume Model (neutral for all broad-based indices), Feature Institutional Model (bullish), Feature Volume Model (bearish), and Smart Algorithm Models (bullish for CSI 300, bearish for CSI 500)[1][12][77]. Medium-term models include the Limit-Up-Limit-Down Model (neutral) and the Up-Down Return Difference Model (bullish for all broad-based indices)[13][78]. The long-term model, the Long-Term Momentum Model, is bullish[14][79]. Comprehensive models like the A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model and the A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model are bearish[15][80] - For Hong Kong stocks, the medium-term models include the Turnover-to-Volatility Model (bullish) and the Hang Seng Index Up-Down Return Difference Model (neutral)[16][81] - The report emphasizes that timing strategies are not achieved through a single model but require a multi-cycle, multi-strategy system. It highlights the use of price-volume, acceleration, trend, momentum, and limit-up-limit-down perspectives to construct eight major models for market timing[9] - Backtesting results for the Double-Bottom Pattern show a weekly return of 0.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27% during the same period. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the Double-Bottom Pattern portfolio is 11.79%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 12.02%[44] - Backtesting results for the Cup-and-Handle Pattern show a weekly return of 0.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27% during the same period. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the Cup-and-Handle Pattern portfolio is 9.27%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 12.02%[44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the third week of December, year - end food prices continued to rise, the operating rate continued to decline, and real estate sales started the year - end sprint, but the slope was significantly lower than that of last year. In terms of inflation, the increase in the food price index narrowed, and the decline in pork prices widened. In terms of exports, container shipping prices continued a slight increase, mainly boosted by the year - end signing season. In terms of investment, cement prices increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to rising demand and price hikes in the central and southern regions, while demand in other regions remained weak. The apparent demand for building materials and rebar improved slightly. In the real estate sector, both new and second - hand housing sales increased month - on - month, and the year - end sprint slope may be similar to the rhythm of 2023. For the bond market, the economic data in November showed a continued decline in momentum, but the bond market was insensitive. There may be certain expectations for the "good start" in the first quarter of next year. In the short term, potential disturbances to the bond market sentiment such as the new regulations on fund fees still exist, but as the cross - year allocation window approaches, some allocation funds have begun to enter the market gradually. Looking forward to 2026, fiscal and macro - policies may continue to be implemented earlier, and the probability of a "good start" in data is relatively high, which may jointly suppress sentiment. Especially with the base adjustment in 2026, the inflation performance in the first quarter may further affect expectations and requires careful observation [3][37]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related: Food price increases narrowed - This week, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products increased by 0.8% and 1.0% week - on - week respectively, with the increase lower than last week. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and the decline widened; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, turning from an increase to a decrease; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits increased by 1.7% week - on - week, and the increase narrowed [6][7]. Import and Export - related: Container shipping prices continued a slight increase - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 3.1% week - on - week. Affected by the year - end signing season, the spot booking prices on the North American routes continued to rise, and the freight rates on the West and East US routes increased by 11.9% and 7.3% respectively compared with last week. From December 8th to December 14th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively, continuing to decline compared with the previous week. The decline of the BDI and CDFI indices widened [8][11]. Industry - related: The operating rate generally declined - The decline of coal prices continued to expand. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 5.5% week - on - week. The rebar price stopped falling and rebounded, with the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increasing by 0.3% week - on - week. The asphalt operating rate continued to decline, with the asphalt plant operating rate decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 27.6% week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. The increase of international copper prices converged, and the glass price continued to fall [16][20]. Investment - related: New home sales increased slightly - Cement prices continued a slight increase. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week, rising for three consecutive weeks. The transaction area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities stopped falling and rebounded, with a week - on - week increase of 15.4% from December 12th to December 18th. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 5.3% week - on - week, showing a seasonal upward trend [25][28]. Consumption: Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early December decreased by 24% year - on - year - From December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. As of December 19th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.1% and 1.6% week - on - week respectively, continuing to fall [31].