Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [1][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point as it clears inventory and launches new products, particularly with the anticipated release of the next-generation AQ-400 endoscope system in the second half of 2025 [7][9]. - Despite facing performance pressure in 2024 and 2025 due to external factors, the company continues to make progress in R&D and overseas market expansion, which are expected to drive significant growth in 2026 [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of External Environment - The company is undergoing a two-year adjustment period in 2024 and 2025 due to ongoing anti-corruption measures affecting hospital equipment procurement [13]. - The national push for medical equipment upgrades has seen slow execution in some regions, impacting revenue recognition for the company [14][17]. 2. R&D and Overseas Market Development - The company has increased R&D investment, focusing on new product development, including the upcoming AQ-400 system, which is expected to be approved for market release in late 2025 [30][32]. - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with the company’s overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic growth, reaching 42.7% in 2024 [38][44]. 3. Anticipated Breakthrough in 2026 - The company’s share buyback plan and employee stock ownership plan reflect management's confidence in future growth [45]. - The launch of the AQ-400 is expected to drive substantial sales growth in 2026, similar to the sales patterns observed with previous product launches [49][51]. 4. Long-term Industry Outlook - The soft endoscope industry is characterized by strong monopolistic structures and significant market potential, with opportunities for companies to transition towards a semi-consumable business model [9][14]. - The industry is expected to benefit from ongoing trends in minimally invasive surgical instruments and disposable endoscopes, which are seen as future growth directions [9][14].

公司研究 事项： ❖ 公司于 6 月 18 日召开 2024 年度股东大会，管理层重点总结 2024 年经营成 果、指出 2025 年战略方向，并回应市场关心的经营策略、渠道表现、资本支 出等问题。我们前往参会，核心反馈及分析如下： 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 水井坊（600779）2024 年股东大会点评 强推（维持） 修炼内功，注重提效 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,217 | 5,349 | 5,696 | 6,308 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.3% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 10.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,341 | 1,365 | 1,449 | 1,658 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.7% | 1.8% | 6.1% | 14.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.97 | 3.40 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 15 | 14 | ...

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强——6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 4 期 ❖ 投资摘要： —Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6 月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变，对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期，上调通胀预期，其中 2025 年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%，核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或仍为两次，2026 年和 2027 年降息次 数均从 2 次降至 1 次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕，同时对于货币政策限 制性的表述偏弱。 5. 下半年美国出台潜在关税对冲政策，或有利于美元资产，尤其是美股追赶 其他市场表现，除中国以外的新兴市场的企业盈利和股票估值压力或再度加 大。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 陆家嘴论坛后，宽松交易或延续 2025 年 6 月 18 日上午，第十五届陆家嘴论坛开幕。2024 年陆家嘴论坛央行行 长发表关于当前的货币政策立场和未来货币政策框架的相关表态，其后货币政 策框架改革加速推进，故市场对于本次论坛内容较为关注。本文主要回顾 2019 年以来历次会议央行领导的主题发言内容以及债券市场表现。 陆家嘴论坛央行行长讲话回顾 回顾 2019 年以来央行行长的演讲的内容，2019-2020 年：会议主要聚焦上海 "五个中心"定位。2021-2023 年：议题转向绿色金融与普惠金融等，会议主 题呼应"双碳"目标与小微实体支持。2024 年：议题聚焦货币政策框架改革， 推动货币政策实现了数量型和价格型调控并行向以价格型调控为主导、以利率 为核心的货币政策框架转变。 2025 年：本次会议演讲围绕全球金融治理展开。值得关注的是，央行领导在 全球金融稳定体系所面临的挑战中重点提及非银行中介机构的监管仍然薄弱 的问题，关注非银机构的杠杆水平变化以及后续监管落实。 历史陆家嘴论坛后的收益率表现 从债市表现看，由于历次论坛央行领导表态多与绿色发展、国际合作、金融开 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 5 月白羽肉禽月报 综合来看，鸡苗端盈利环比提升、毛鸡养殖端大幅减亏。5 月毛鸡养殖亏损 0.07 元/羽，同比亏损大幅缩减；孵化场盈利 0.26 元/羽，环比盈利大幅提升。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 18 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格微涨，鸡苗价格平稳 5 月毛鸡价格微涨，整体波动幅度较小：1）供给维度：今年 5 月整体饲养成 活率偏低，市场有效供给收窄；2）需求维度：终端消费持续疲软，价格低位 徘徊。 鸡苗价格平稳，均价微降，波动有限。行业白羽鸡苗均价 2.88 元/羽，环比 +0.38%，同比-8%。大厂月末成交价约 3.5 元/羽。本月养殖端补栏较为谨慎， 需求端对鸡苗存在利空影响。鸡肉价格有所反弹，但仍维持下滑趋势。 毛鸡、鸡苗价格保持平稳，养殖端利润有所 恢复 父母代产能方面，2025 年 5 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2383 万套，同比 +7.4%，环比+2.1%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1500 万套，同比-2.4%，环比 +1.5%。5 月父母代鸡苗价格为 43.47 元/套，最新报价 2 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 军工战略资产崛起——大秩序竞合录系列1 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025年6月18日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 3 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 1、黄金价格的惊人涨幅是市场对全球秩序重构预期的直接反映，央行购金热潮、地缘政治风险升温、美元体系 的潜在压力共同构成了这一秩序重构的复杂图景。 • 2、国际地缘政治冲突加剧的背景下，全球国防开支持续加速上升，2024年我国国防支出占 GDP 比重达到 1.7%，相较俄罗斯（7.1%）、美国（3.4%）等全球主要军事大国有较大差距，未来仍有较大增长潜力。 • 3、"中国力量"逐渐展露带 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略快评】 科创金融组合拳 ——陆家嘴论坛点评 科技创新和产业创新融合发展，金融服务加力提速，政策重心或将进一步向新 质生产力倾斜。吴清指出当前金融服务科技创新的短板弱项主要体现在"三个 不完善"：一是适应创新规律的资本形成机制不完善。二是满足科技企业全生 命周期金融需求的产品服务体系不完善。三是对创新的激励约束机制不完善。 基于以上"三个不完善"，证监会从股权、债权、上市公司质量三个视角推动 金融服务创新。这也是针对近期党政要会加强科技创新部署的落地，4/30 习总 书记强调"十五五"时期，必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战 略位置。5/7 国新办新闻发布会上，央行、金融监管总局、证监会分别从货币、 资本市场等角度强调了金融对科技创新的支持。以新质生产力为代表的科技创 新，尤其是人工智能等战略新兴产业，或将成为下一轮政策支持的重点方向。 股权：深化科创板改革"1+6"政策措施，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套 标准上市，培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本。吴清表示要推出科创板进一步深化 改革的"1+6"政策措施。"1"即在科创板设置科创成长层，重启未盈利企业 适用科创板第五套标准上 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [22]. Core Insights - As of Q1 2025, the accumulated fund scale of enterprise annuities reached 3.73 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.38% from the end of 2024, although the growth rate has decreased by 1.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The newly disclosed three-year cumulative return rate for enterprise annuities stands at 7.46%, primarily driven by long-term investment behavior influenced by relevant policy guidance [4][10]. - The number of enterprises establishing annuities has increased to 168,200, a rise of 5.62% from the end of 2024, with the number of participating employees growing by 1.51% to 32.91 million [2][10]. Summary by Sections Fund Scale and Growth - The enterprise annuity fund scale reached 3.73 trillion as of Q1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.38% [2]. - The number of enterprises with annuities increased to 168,200, marking a 5.62% rise from the previous year [2]. Cumulative Returns - The three-year cumulative return rate for enterprise annuities is 7.46%, with single plans showing a return of 7.42% and collective plans at 7.82% [5][10]. - Fixed income portfolios yielded a return of 10.54%, outperforming the average by 3.08 percentage points, while equity-inclusive portfolios returned 7.06%, slightly below the average [5]. Market Outlook - The enterprise annuity sector is expected to continue its growth trend, benefiting from a structural market favoring small-cap growth and technology stocks in Q1 2025 [10]. - The long-term assessment of returns is anticipated to drive investment behaviors towards a balanced approach between absolute and relative returns, leading to a "steady progress" investment style [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The world's first intelligent grading standard for humanoid robots has been officially released, which is expected to promote the large-scale application of humanoid robots in various sectors such as petrochemical inspection and emergency rescue [4]. - Wuhan has established a special fund of 1 billion yuan to support the humanoid robot industry, aiming to break through innovation risk bottlenecks and enhance the industry's development [4]. - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with new technologies being developed and production processes accelerating [4]. Industry Data - The humanoid robot industry consists of 302 listed companies, with a total market value of 48,908.77 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 42,633.07 billion yuan [1]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has increased by 9.8%, while the relative performance has shown a slight increase of 0.2% [2]. Related Developments - The second-generation humanoid robot Codroid 02 was unveiled, showcasing advanced capabilities for industrial tasks and online learning [4]. - Ningbo has introduced policies to promote the humanoid robot industry, including financial support for innovation centers and insurance subsidies for enterprises [4]. - Investment suggestions include companies involved in various components of humanoid robots, such as actuators, sensors, and motors, indicating a broad interest in the sector [4].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国经济的前瞻指标们 核心结论：近期美国经济硬数据与软数据之间的分歧开始收敛，越来越多的硬 数据开始指向经济下行。本文通过对美国就业、库存、投资、消费、金融条件 五个维度的前瞻指标拆分，总结了当前美国经济的现状与前景：经济呈下行趋 势，但爆发风险的概率不大，结构来看：①就业市场呈结构性弱化，供需关系 显著降温；②当前处于补库存周期，未来大规模补库概率不大；③投资方面企 业投资或继续下行，地产投资难有起色；④居民消费能力减弱，但爆发风险的 概率小；⑤金融条件：处于宽松状态。 1、美国就业市场：呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温 就业市场现状：薪资偏强，但就业呈现结构性弱化。根据亚特兰大联储对就业 数据的拆分，将就业数据划分为 5 个维度。从目前的就业数据来看，尽管薪资 增长依然较快（衡量薪资的三个指标均处于过去 10 年 50%-75%分位数水平）， 但就业市场的结构性数据提示就业市场已经在弱化，例如就业市场信心指标、 雇主行为指标等普遍弱于过去 10 年 50%分位数。 从就业市场供需关系来评估当前的就业市场现状，可以看到劳动力市场供需 关系显著降温，工作变得不那么 ...