Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The alpha of real estate stocks depends on the precision of land acquisition, with the current macroeconomic environment not supporting a general rise in housing prices, making it challenging for companies to ensure project profitability [6][7]. - The value of real estate stocks is derived from the discounted future residual earnings, which are based on the profitability of each project, ultimately reflecting on ROE and valuation [6][7]. - The report highlights that the market for new homes is contracting, and the effective market area for new homes is shrinking, complicating the identification of valuable land parcels [7][24]. - The report suggests that future sector opportunities will primarily arise from improved land acquisition comfort for real estate companies, transitioning from a contracting to an expanding market [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion and a circulating market value of 1,183.334 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.6%, 16.6%, and 3.4% respectively, while the relative performance is 4.4%, -1.9%, and -12.1% [3]. Project Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of real estate companies is increasingly dependent on project-level earnings, with past profits driven by rising property prices and a focus on debt leverage [6][7]. - The report notes that the supply of quality land has increased, leading to heightened competition among projects, and some older projects may face challenges in sales due to new building regulations [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have demonstrated precise land acquisition over the past three years, such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group, while also monitoring companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans and China Jinmao for improvements in land acquisition in the latter half of 2024 [24].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 10.11 yuan [2][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure, with a 7.05% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 15.16% drop in net profit for the first half of 2025. The revenue for 25H1 was 1.79 billion yuan, and the net profit was 108 million yuan [2][9]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, particularly in its product lines, with expectations for performance recovery as new products are launched and adjustments take effect [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Half-Year Performance**: Revenue was 1.79 billion yuan (-7.05% YoY), and net profit was 108 million yuan (-15.16% YoY). The gross margin was 52.3% (+0.5pp YoY), and the net margin was 7.5% (-0.6pp YoY) [2]. - **2025 Q2 Performance**: Revenue was 913 million yuan (-11.7% YoY), and net profit was 57 million yuan (-16.1% YoY). The gross margin was 53.4% (+0.6pp YoY), and the net margin was 7.8% (-0.2pp YoY) [2]. - **Future Financial Projections**: Expected revenues for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3.983 billion, 3.798 billion, 4.189 billion, and 4.598 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 244 million, 248 million, 294 million, and 350 million yuan [5][10]. Business Segment Performance - **Cosmetics Segment**: Revenue was 1.094 billion yuan (-7.73% YoY). The "Yilian" brand showed strong growth with a 23.78% increase in revenue to 554 million yuan, driven by successful marketing and product upgrades [9]. - **Raw Materials Segment**: Revenue was 179 million yuan (+4.15% YoY), with a notable increase in high-value products, particularly in hyaluronic acid (HA) sales, which grew by 287.3% YoY [9]. R&D and Innovation - The company continues to invest in R&D, with expenses increasing by 20.60% YoY to 79 million yuan in the first half of 2025. New product launches, including the "transdermal collagen" technology, are expected to drive future growth [9].

- The September stock selection portfolio achieved an average individual stock return of 5.24%, with a win rate of 57.9%[1][8] - Monthly portfolio return was 4.97%, outperforming Wind All A by 2.17%[1][8] - Year-to-date absolute return reached 50.35%, outperforming Wind All A by 23.93%[1][8] - Macroeconomic data showed PPI year-on-year decline narrowed significantly, CPI year-on-year decline widened, and M1 grew by 6% year-on-year, up 0.4% from the previous month[2][16] - Manufacturing PMI for September was 49.8%, better than the previous value of 49.4[2][16] - RMB appreciated against USD recently, indicating potential inflow of northbound funds[2][16] - Small-cap factor may weaken, while mid-cap and large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks in October[2][16] - Beta factor, market capitalization factor, growth factor, and volatility factor showed strong performance, reflecting market preference for high-elasticity, growth-oriented leading stocks[2][21] - October portfolio construction focuses on three themes: benefiting from weak USD and competitive domestic industries (e.g., non-ferrous metals), high-demand sectors (e.g., semiconductors, solid-state batteries, aerospace), and potential style-switch cyclical stocks with high dividend yields and low valuations[3][23][24] - October portfolio includes stocks such as Zijin Mining, Ningde Times, and Zhaoyi Innovation, with an emphasis on growth-oriented leading stocks[3][25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD with a target price of 130.6 CNY and 142.7 HKD [1] Core Views - The report highlights a moderate month-on-month sales growth in September 2025, with expectations for an upward trend in Q4 [1] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 925.5 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive position and potential for global market share expansion, driven by product innovation and overseas market development [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for BYD are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 925.5 billion CNY - 2026: 1,082.2 billion CNY - 2027: 1,237.6 billion CNY - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are expected to be 29.0% for 2024, 19.1% for 2025, 16.9% for 2026, and 14.4% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 42.6 billion CNY - 2026: 51.4 billion CNY - 2027: 63.2 billion CNY - The net profit growth rates are projected at 34.0% for 2024, 5.8% for 2025, 20.7% for 2026, and 23.0% for 2027 [2] Sales Performance - In September 2025, BYD's total new energy vehicle sales reached 396,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6% but a month-on-month increase of 6% [6] - The breakdown of sales includes: - BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles): 205,000 units, year-on-year increase of 24% - PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles): 188,000 units, year-on-year decrease of 26% - Exports: 71,000 units, year-on-year increase of 134% [6] Market Dynamics - The report notes that multiple regions have suspended vehicle replacement subsidies, which may lead to a significant rush for purchases before the end of the year [6] - The automotive industry is transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, which is expected to enhance profitability for companies like BYD [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated impressive performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 31.3% year-on-year to 2.59 billion and net profit rising by 36.1% to 670 million, aligning with market expectations [1][9]. - The company is expanding its product categories, particularly in the fragrance segment, and has successfully launched high-end perfume series, enhancing its brand positioning [9]. - The dual-channel strategy (online and offline) is showing robust growth, with online sales increasing by 39% and offline sales by 27%, indicating a healthy synergy between the two channels [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 3.885 billion, 2025E at 5.142 billion, 2026E at 6.588 billion, and 2027E at 8.273 billion, with respective growth rates of 34.6%, 32.4%, 28.1%, and 25.6% [3][11]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 881 million in 2024A to 1.936 billion in 2027E, with growth rates of 33.0%, 35.3%, 28.2%, and 26.8% [3][11]. - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 84.2% and a net margin of 25.9% in the first half of 2025, reflecting stable profitability [9]. Business Segmentation - Revenue breakdown shows 55% from color cosmetics, 42% from skincare, 3% from makeup artistry training, and 0.4% from fragrances [9]. - The offline sales contribute 47% of total revenue, while online sales account for 50%, showcasing a balanced distribution between channels [9]. Future Growth Potential - The company has significant room for SKU expansion, currently at approximately 400 SKUs, particularly in lip, eye, and foundation products [9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved store efficiency compared to international brands, suggesting ongoing growth opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 82 yuan [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's domestic business is experiencing temporary pressure, while overseas growth remains robust. In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.185 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.18% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 771 million yuan, down 14.62% year-on-year [2][6]. - The overseas business saw a significant increase, with revenue reaching 952 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.57% [6]. - The company is enhancing its high-end product matrix, with the flagship model MAGLUMIX10 achieving domestic product registration and a testing speed of 1,000 tests per hour, improving its competitive edge in the market [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4.535 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.633 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.4%, 7.4%, 15.9%, and 17.5% respectively [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.828 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.585 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.6%, 1.5%, 16.5%, and 19.6% respectively [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.33 yuan in 2024 to 3.29 yuan in 2027 [2][7]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 29 times in 2024 to 21 times in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 6.3 times to 4.5 times over the same period [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, with 1,835 tertiary hospitals served by the end of H1 2025, achieving a coverage rate of 47.60% [6]. - The sales of high-end models in overseas markets have increased, with 1,971 units of the chemical luminescence immunoassay analyzer sold in H1 2025, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end models reaching 77.02% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 215.56 CNY, while the current price is 181.55 CNY [5][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point in growth driven by external acquisitions and new product launches. The short-term performance is under pressure due to a weak consumption environment and intensified competition, but long-term prospects remain positive due to the synergistic effects of new product iterations, international acquisitions, and R&D barriers [5][9]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 3,026 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4%. However, a decline of 12.2% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 22.9% in 2026 and 16.2% in 2027 [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,958 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.3%. This is expected to decline by 17.2% in 2025, before increasing by 25.7% in 2026 and 15.3% in 2027 [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 6.47 CNY for 2024, decreasing to 5.36 CNY in 2025, and then recovering to 6.74 CNY in 2026 and 7.77 CNY in 2027 [4][10]. Market Performance - The company has faced significant challenges, with a 21.6% decline in total revenue in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, and a 29.6% drop in net profit. The gross margin has slightly decreased to 93.4%, while the net margin stands at 60.9% [9][10]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including an 85% stake in the South Korean company REGEN, which is expected to enhance its international presence and product offerings [9][10]. R&D and Product Pipeline - The company has increased its R&D expenditure, with a rate of 12.0% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a commitment to innovation and a robust pipeline that includes products in advanced fields such as botulinum toxin and recombinant proteins [9][10]. - The diverse product pipeline and ongoing R&D efforts are seen as critical for sustainable business development [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price of 47.75 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned for long-term recovery through its brand matrix and R&D innovations, despite facing short-term performance pressures due to market conditions and strategic adjustments [8]. - The company is expected to gradually recover its performance as it enhances its brand matrix, R&D barriers, and channel development, particularly with the growth of its new brands and improved online member repurchase rates [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5,736 million, 5,406 million, 5,952 million, and 6,655 million respectively, with growth rates of 3.9%, -5.8%, 10.1%, and 11.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 503 million, 547 million, 642 million, and 777 million for the same years, with growth rates of -33.5%, 8.7%, 17.4%, and 21.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 1.19, 1.29, 1.51, and 1.83 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Online channel revenue is expected to show resilience, with a projected income of 17.43 billion, despite a year-on-year decline of 6%. The company has seen growth in emerging content e-commerce platforms [8]. - Offline channel revenue is projected to decline significantly, with an expected income of 4.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 42% [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing member operations to improve profitability. Key strategies include streamlining SKUs, focusing on core products, and implementing differentiated member tier operations [8]. - The company is expanding its multi-brand matrix and entering new market segments, such as high-end anti-aging and infant care, to create additional growth avenues [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Sanofi Biologicals [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.264 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.52% to 181 million yuan [1][7] - The growth in blood glucose monitoring products remains robust, with a revenue contribution of approximately 1.659 billion yuan, accounting for 73.29% of total revenue, and a year-on-year increase of 6.88% [7] - The company is actively expanding its Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) products into global markets, achieving significant registrations in multiple countries [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the projected total revenue is 4.901 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.3% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 434 million yuan in 2025, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 33% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [3] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has successfully registered its CGM products in Brazil, Iran, Nepal, Belarus, Uruguay, and Vietnam, and has established partnerships in Europe to enhance market penetration [7] - Sanofi Biologicals is focusing on localizing operations in key markets such as Indonesia, India, and Thailand, which includes setting up local subsidiaries and professional teams [7] - The company is leveraging international e-commerce platforms like eBay, Amazon, and AliExpress to expand its online presence [7]