Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Huaxi Biological [2] Core Views - Huaxi Biological is currently undergoing a systematic adjustment phase, with initial positive results on the profit front. The company reported a revenue of 2.261 billion (down 19.57% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 221 million (down 35.38%) for the first half of 2025. However, the second quarter showed a turning point with a net profit of 119 million, up 20.89% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on strategic marketing reductions and effective cost control, leading to a recovery in profitability. The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.99% (down 3.53 percentage points), while the net margin was 9.77% (down 2.39 percentage points) [2][3] - The report highlights the resilience of the sales of Class III medical devices, despite a decline in the skin science innovation transformation business, which saw a revenue drop of 33.97% [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected total revenue is 4.959 billion (down 7.7% year-on-year), with a projected net profit of 458 million (up 162.9% year-on-year). The earnings per share are expected to be 0.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 58 [4][9] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 26.695 billion, with a current share price of 55.42 yuan and a target price of 64.13 yuan [4][5] - The report anticipates a recovery in the core business operations, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 458 million, 618 million, and 748 million respectively [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in demand while supply continues to clear out, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the holiday period [5][6]. - High-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing better turnover, while mid-range products are performing relatively well in certain regions [5]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with stable performance, those undergoing significant transformation, and those with quality products that are clearing out inventory [5]. Industry Basic Data - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,219.12 billion [2]. - The circulating market value stands at 31,214.28 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the liquor industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -4.0%, -6.4%, and -15.6% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index is -7.2% over 1 month, -24.9% over 6 months, and -31.1% over 12 months [3]. Sales Performance Insights - During the holiday period, liquor sales are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [5]. - High-end gifting demand has improved slightly before the holidays, while mid-range business group purchases are still under pressure [5]. - Regional performance varies, with provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results [5]. Brand Performance - Moutai and Wuliangye are performing well, while other brands are experiencing significant declines in sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that brands like Gujing and Jiuzi are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [5]. Channel and Inventory Insights - Channel inventory is slightly decreasing, with supply and demand remaining in a tight balance [5]. - The report anticipates that Q4 will focus on inventory digestion, with price stability expected despite some downward pressure [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with low performance risk, those confirming performance bottoms, and those undergoing deep transformations [5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing, with a focus on dividend yield for Wuliangye and monitoring the performance of Laojiao [5].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 买断式前置投放，呵护思路延续 ——10 月流动性月报 一、9 月资金面回顾：季末短暂摩擦，中枢持稳 资金面回顾：9 月税期央行投放相对克制叠加北交所打新影响，资金价格出现 波动，DR007 短暂突破 1.6%，季末在 14D 逆回购及 MLF 加码投放的呵护下， 资金面整体平稳。 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 超储水平：不考虑逆回购的超储水平或依旧偏低。流动性总量方面，9 月基础 货币全月或增加 1.2 万亿元，其中政府存款对基础货币的补充或在 3000 亿附 近，央行净投放合计 1 万亿，外汇占款延续小幅回笼 700 亿元；此外，准备金 对于超储的冻结或在 2000 亿元附近，取现对超储的冻结或在 2554 亿附近，非 金融机构存款变化对超储的消耗或在 525 亿元附近，故月末超储或增加 7231 亿，超储率或在 1.55%左右，处于季节性水平，扣除逆回购之后的狭义超储水 平或在 0.6%附近，仍属于偏低水平。 证券分析师：宋琦 二、9 月货币政策追踪：14D 招标方式调整，三季度货政例会召开 202 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is expected to be around 4.8%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters[3] - The manufacturing investment growth rate from January to September is projected to be 4.0%, which is the first time since 2021 that it may fall below the GDP growth rate[1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of around -0.2% in September[11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by approximately -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year improvement from -2.9% to -2.5%[12] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to drop to -0.2% for the first nine months, with real estate investment declining by 13.2%[18] - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 3.2% in September, influenced by high base effects from durable goods[21] Policy Adjustments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to real estate purchase restrictions in major cities and the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan to support project capital[2][5] - The government aims to enhance economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments based on economic conditions[1]

Global Macro Overview - Global equity markets experienced a rally, benefiting from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rose by 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively from October 1-7. European indices also saw gains, with the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC40 increasing by 1.4%, 2.1%, and 1.0% respectively. Asian markets outperformed, with the Nikkei 225 up 6.7% and the KOSPI up 3.6% [2][9][12] - Precious metals surged, with COMEX gold rising by 3.1% and reaching over $4000 per ounce on October 8. This increase was supported by a backdrop of a U.S. government shutdown and weak employment data, which heightened expectations for Fed rate cuts. In contrast, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.0% and 2.3% respectively, primarily due to OPEC+ considering increased production [2][12][14] - Bitcoin futures on CME rose by 6.55% during the same period, reaching a peak of $125,689 on October 5, surpassing the previous record set on August 14. This increase was part of a broader rally in risk assets [3][16] Domestic Economic Insights - Domestic travel saw a significant increase, with cross-regional movement reaching 2.14 billion trips from October 1-7, a 6.9% increase year-on-year. The number of flights executed during this period was 118,000, averaging 16,800 flights per day, marking a five-year high [5][26][33] - However, urban public transport in major cities showed a decline, with daily subway ridership in first-tier cities averaging 26.65 million, lower than the previous two years. The film market also underperformed during the National Day holiday, with box office revenue of 1.73 billion yuan, only slightly above 2022's figures [5][27][32] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market has shown strong performance this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 16% and the CSI 300 Index up 18%. Small-cap growth stocks have outperformed, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market both rising by 51% [9][37][39] - The market has seen significant excess returns from public funds, with the CSI Equity Fund Index up 32%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 16.4 percentage points. Approximately 75% of actively managed equity funds have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [37][42] - There has been a notable increase in share reductions since July, particularly in the TMT, machinery, and power equipment sectors. The total reduction in shares from July to September reached 1.22 billion yuan, with electronics and machinery being the most affected sectors [10][43][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector index increased by 3% in the 40th week, ranking 4th among 31 primary industry sectors [8] - New home transactions decreased by 17% week-on-week, while second-hand home transactions saw a significant drop of 54% [2][22] - Year-to-date, new home transaction volume in 20 cities is 76.38 million square meters, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decrease [22] - The report highlights three key issues in the real estate market: declining new home demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [30] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 107 - Total market value: 1,233.623 billion yuan - Circulating market value: 1,183.334 billion yuan [2] Sales Data - In the 40th week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 262,000 square meters, with a total transaction area of 1.83 million square meters [22] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 cities was 133,000 square meters, with a total transaction area of 930,000 square meters [25] Policy News - Various local governments have implemented measures to stabilize the real estate market, including increasing housing provident fund loan limits and promoting compliance in real estate operations [17][19] Company Dynamics - China Overseas Development acquired two land parcels in Shenyang for a total of 324 million yuan, continuing to invest in the core business district [20] - China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 billion yuan in preferred shares to support 11 real estate projects, with a total investment of 456.7 billion yuan [20]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report highlights that the first anniversary of the bull market has resulted in absolute returns for dividend assets, but the perceived gains are weak, with relative returns lagging behind the market [17][18][19] - From October 24, 2024, to September 25, 2025, the banking sector contributed +5 percentage points to absolute returns, while coal was a significant drag on performance [17][18][23] - The report indicates that the current AH premium index is at the 2nd percentile over the past 15 years, suggesting potential for upward correction in A-share dividend assets [18][19] Group 2: Financial Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to stabilize its interest margins this year, with insurance funds actively increasing stock allocations [17][18] - Recommendations include focusing on banks with high dividend yields and solid asset quality, particularly smaller regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Jiangsu Bank [17][18] - The report suggests that the economic structural transformation will provide greater elasticity in the fundamentals and valuations of banks, with a focus on banks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank [17][18] Group 3: Transportation and Utilities - The report identifies several high-yield stocks in the transportation sector, emphasizing the investment value of dividend assets [17][18] - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Anhui Expressway, which are noted for their growth potential [17][18] - In the port sector, China Merchants Port is highlighted for its overseas asset layout and increasing dividend payout ratio [17][18] Group 4: Energy and Chemicals - The petrochemical industry is expected to see accelerated transformation and growth, with a focus on energy security and long-term cash flow stability [17][18] - Recommendations include major players like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [17][18] - The report suggests that coal prices may strengthen due to recent policy measures, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [17][18] Group 5: Food and Beverage Sector - The report notes that leading companies in the food and beverage sector are showing resilience, with a focus on improving bottom-line signals [17][18] - Recommendations include high-dividend stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to maintain strong cash flows [17][18] - The report also highlights the stability of traditional leaders like Yili and Shuanghui, emphasizing their shareholder return strategies [17][18] Group 6: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is characterized by quality and cyclical dividends, with a focus on leading companies [17][18] - Recommendations include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improving domestic sales [17][18] - The report also suggests monitoring small appliance leaders like Supor, which are positioned to capitalize on changing consumer demands [17][18] Group 7: Real Estate - The report indicates a recovery in new home transactions from a low base, with a focus on core segments [17][18] - Recommended stocks include Greentown China and Swire Properties, which are noted for their stable cash flows and dividend commitments [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring rental income and occupancy rates in the commercial real estate sector [17][18] Group 8: Metals - The report highlights the recovery of profitability in the metals sector, particularly in aluminum, which is seen as a resilient dividend asset [17][18] - Recommendations include China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum, which are expected to maintain or increase dividend payouts [17][18] - The report also notes the potential for high-dividend stocks in the sector, such as Zhongfu Industrial [17][18] Group 9: Publishing - The education publishing sector is characterized by stability and high dividend yields, with a focus on companies like Southern Publishing [17][18] - The report suggests that companies are actively exploring new business directions, such as AI education, which may provide upside potential [17][18] - Recommendations include Zhongyuan Publishing and Changjiang Publishing, which are noted for their solid fundamentals and dividend policies [17][18] Group 10: Selected Dividend Asset Portfolio - The report presents a curated list of stable dividend assets, including Sichuan Chengyu in transportation and Wuliangye in food and beverage [12][17] - Quality dividend assets highlighted include Midea Group and Southern Publishing, while cyclical dividend assets include Shaanxi Coal and China Hongqiao [12][17] - Potential dividend assets include China Merchants Port in the transportation sector, indicating a diversified approach to dividend investing [12][17]

Travel Insights - During the National Day holiday, inter-regional passenger flow increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slower than the 7.9% growth during the May Day holiday[2] - Air travel and railway growth rates were below 4%, while waterway and outbound travel saw higher growth, with waterway passenger transport up by 8.7%[12] Retail Performance - Retail sales for key enterprises grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, indicating potential pressure on October's retail sales[3] - Home appliances and green food consumption achieved double-digit growth, with green organic food sales up by 20.1%[18] Price Trends - Food prices remained stable, while some regions saw a decline in liquor prices; for instance, the average price of movie tickets dropped nearly 8% year-on-year[4] - Airfare prices increased by 9.2% compared to the previous year, while hotel prices varied significantly between first-tier and lower-tier cities[24] Movie Industry - Box office revenue for the National Day holiday was down 19.2% year-on-year, potentially due to scheduling issues with popular films released in the preceding months[26] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macroeconomic activity index was at 6.65% as of September 28, showing a decline of 2.12 percentage points from the previous week[28] - The manufacturing PMI remained above the growth line at 50.8%, indicating resilience in external demand[38]

Market Performance - Global major stock indices rose significantly, with the Nikkei 225 up 6.7%, the KOSPI up 3.6%, and the STOXX 600 up 2.2% from October 1 to 6[1] - Major 10-year government bond yields increased, with French bonds rising by 3.2bps, UK bonds by 2.1bps, and US bonds by 2.0bps during the same period[1] - Precious metals saw substantial gains, with silver up 5.2%, gold up 3.2%, and copper up 3.0%, while Brent crude oil and WTI fell by 2.3% and 1.1% respectively[1] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.6%, while the Russian ruble, British pound, and US dollar index appreciated by 1.2%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively from October 1 to 6[2] Key Events - Gold prices hit a historic high of $4000 per ounce on October 7, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases[3] - The US federal government entered a shutdown on October 1, affecting numerous federal employees and halting economic data releases, yet the stock market remained resilient, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching record highs[4] - High-profile political changes occurred in Japan, with Sanae Takaichi winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, potentially becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, leading to a surge in Japanese stock prices[6] Economic Outlook - The OPEC+ group agreed to a slight production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, reflecting a compromise between Saudi Arabia and Russia amid concerns of oversupply[8] - France's political instability was highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, raising concerns over the country's fiscal health and increasing borrowing costs, with 10-year bond yields surpassing those of Greece[9] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in determining interest rate paths due to the government shutdown, with a 92.5% probability of a rate cut expected in October[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the overall default rate of bonds continued to decline, and the repayment rate increased significantly. There were no newly - added first - time default entities, and the default rate of private enterprise credit bonds decreased. The cumulative default repayment rate continued to rise, mainly due to debt restructuring of defaulting enterprises [1][8]. - The Zhongzhuang Construction convertible bond defaulted, and many construction - related enterprises triggered debt restructuring. The cash flow recovery efficiency of the construction industry is expected to improve, and the subsequent pressure may be alleviated [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Q3: Overall Default Rate Continued to Decline, Repayment Rate Increased Significantly 3.1.1 Bond Default Rate - The overall default rate of credit bonds showed a downward trend. In Q3, there were no newly - added first - time substantial default entities. The total default scale of credit bonds in Q3 was 592 million yuan. From July to September, the overall default rates of credit bonds were 0.98%, 0.97%, and 0.96% respectively [8]. - The default rate of private enterprise credit bonds continued to decline. From July to September, the default amounts of private enterprise bonds were 1.671 billion yuan, 829 million yuan, and 2.126 billion yuan respectively; the default rates were 8.94%, 8.90%, and 8.89% respectively, lower than those in Q2 [8]. 3.1.2 Default Repayment Rate - The cumulative default repayment rate in Q3 2025 continued to rise. From July to September, the cumulative default repayment rates were 14.29%, 14.40%, and 14.42% respectively. The high repayment amount in July drove the repayment rate to rise significantly compared with the previous quarter [13]. - The principal repayment scale of default bonds increased compared with the previous quarter. The debt restructuring of private real - estate enterprises accelerated the bond repurchase progress. Longfor Group, Sunac Group, and Furi Group promoted debt restructuring, and Furi Group completed the merger and restructuring [16]. - In the future, enterprises such as CIFI and Zhenro Properties will successively launch domestic debt restructuring plans, and the default repayment rate of real - estate enterprises is expected to further increase. However, the cash repayment obtained by investors after the restructuring plan is reached is limited, and the overall interests are still difficult to guarantee [17]. 3.1.3 Credit Event Statistics - In Q3 2025, a total of 31 new default bonds were added to domestic bonds, with a total balance of 3.4677 billion yuan. Among them, 26 bonds reached an extension agreement, mostly second - time extensions of bonds of troubled real - estate industry entities. Other industries included Contemporary Technology (medical), Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (agriculture), and Pengbo Telecom (telecom). There were 5 first - time extension bonds and 4 substantial default bonds [20]. 3.1.4 Urban Investment Sentiment - In Q3 2025, the number of non - standard risk events of urban investment decreased by 3 compared with the previous quarter, mainly distributed in Shandong, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of administrative levels, they were mainly distributed at the district - county and prefecture - city levels, with 3 and 2 cases respectively in Q3 2025, accounting for 60% and 40% respectively. The proportion of non - standard risk events of district - county - level urban investment decreased [24]. - The number of urban investment commercial paper overdue entities remained high. In July and August 2025, the number of urban investment entities with continuous commercial paper overdue (i.e., the acceptor had more than 3 times of bill overdue within 6 months) was 59 and 55 respectively, similar to the level in Q2 2025, and still mainly distributed in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other places [27]. 3.2 Hotspot Analysis: Zhongzhuang Construction Convertible Bond Default, Many Construction - Related Enterprises Triggered Restructuring - Zhongzhuang Construction is a private construction enterprise. Due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry in recent years, the company's construction decoration business has faced pressure, and its profit has been mainly contributed by the property management service business. In Q3 2025, the company's convertible bond stopped trading and converting shares. The non - converted scale was 192.5902 million yuan, and the non - converted proportion was 16.06% [30][31]. - Many private and mixed - ownership construction enterprises have defaulted on debts and undergone bankruptcy restructuring. For construction enterprises that have not yet encountered problems, the central government has recently issued the "Accelerating and Strengthening the Clearance of Arrears Owed to Enterprises" plan, which is expected to improve the cash flow recovery efficiency of the construction industry and relieve the subsequent pressure [44][45].