金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/05/05~2025/05/09） 推荐（维持） 成交量有所增长，超额有所回升 行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 05 月 11 日 | 华创证券研究所 | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | 证券分析师：刘潇伟 | | 电话：021-20572556 | 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360525020001 | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 上周量化私募超额有所回升，中性策略正收益。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下： 1）300 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/-1.3%/-1.8%，周/月/年初以来平均 超额分别为+0.1%/+0.9%/+3.3%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.4%/- 1.7%/+2.3%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.3%/+2%/+7.1%；3）A500 增强策略周/月 /年初以来平均收益分别为-0.2%/+1.5%/+5.6%，周/月/年初以来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.4 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a price turning point for its core product, Mancozeb, and is anticipated to see contributions from new products in the future [1][6]. - The agricultural pesticide industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales volumes and pricing expected in the coming periods [6][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 4,643 million CNY, -20.9% YoY - 2025E: 5,367 million CNY, +15.6% YoY - 2026E: 6,092 million CNY, +13.5% YoY - 2027E: 6,849 million CNY, +12.4% YoY [2][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 779 million CNY, -45.9% YoY - 2025E: 875 million CNY, +12.4% YoY - 2026E: 1,066 million CNY, +21.9% YoY - 2027E: 1,237 million CNY, +16.0% YoY [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.86 CNY - 2025E: 0.96 CNY - 2026E: 1.17 CNY - 2027E: 1.36 CNY [2][7] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13, 11, 9, and 8 for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2][7]. Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant decline of 34% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. Product Insights - The company’s main pesticide raw materials saw a sales volume increase of 37.16% YoY in 2024, despite a price drop of 33.78% [6][7]. - The price of Mancozeb is expected to rise from 32,800 CNY/ton to 37,000 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend for the company's performance [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to leverage its integrated capabilities and cost advantages, with a strong return on equity (ROE) and significant cash reserves for capital expenditures [6][7]. - The adjusted profit expectations for 2025-2027 are 875 million CNY, 1,066 million CNY, and 1,237 million CNY respectively, with a corresponding P/E of 11, 9, and 8 [6][7].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 38 期） 国际局势下雷达军贸成热点，上市公司陆续 推荐（维持） 中标低空项目 交通运输 2025 年 05 月 10 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | | 32,496.40 | ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年5月9日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第125期 从招投标数据看医疗设备更新进展 本周专题联系人：李婵娟 陈俊威 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | --- | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360520110002 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520120002 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520110004 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070002 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080006 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070007 邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 6.36 CNY / 5.04 HKD [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 164.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.90% to 54.36 billion CNY [1][6]. - Non-interest income was a significant contributor to revenue growth, with a notable increase of 18.91% year-on-year, amounting to 57.20 billion CNY [6]. - The asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio holding steady at 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 197.97%, down 2.63 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 164.93 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.36 billion CNY, down 2.90% year-on-year [1][6]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income reached 57.20 billion CNY, up 18.91% year-on-year, driven by significant contributions from foreign exchange gains and other business revenues [6]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The total loan and advance amount reached 22.61 trillion CNY, an increase of 4.7% from the beginning of the year. Deposits also grew by 5.82% to 25.61 trillion CNY [6]. - **Net Interest Margin**: The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, a decrease of 11 basis points from the end of 2024, primarily due to downward pressure on asset pricing [6]. - **Asset Quality**: The NPL balance increased to 281.2 billion CNY, with the NPL ratio stable at 1.25%. The provision coverage ratio was 198%, reflecting a slight decrease [6][10]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected to be 2.2%, 3.7%, and 4.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Net profit growth is expected to be 0.4%, 3.2%, and 3.4% for the same years [6][7]. - The target price is based on a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.75x for 2025, with a current valuation of 0.66x [6].

Economic Comparison - In 2024, Guangdong's GDP reached 14.16 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 3.5%, while Jiangsu's GDP was 13.7 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 5.8%, narrowing the GDP gap to 462.5 billion yuan from 968.3 billion yuan the previous year[19] - Guangdong's GDP concentration is higher, with the last two cities contributing only 4% of the total GDP, the largest disparity among 24 provinces, while Jiangsu's last two cities contribute 21%, ranking fifth in terms of balance[22] Fiscal Dynamics - From 2019 to 2024, Jiangsu's average net contribution to the central government was approximately 280 billion yuan annually, while Guangdong's was about 780 billion yuan, resulting in an annual gap of 500 billion yuan, equivalent to 25.7% of Guangdong's average fiscal revenue[3] - In 2024, Guangdong's local revenue accounted for 22.6% of its total, while Jiangsu's was only 2.5%, the lowest among 31 provinces, indicating a more centralized fiscal structure in Guangdong[4] Infrastructure Investment - Jiangsu's infrastructure growth rate was 13.3% in 2024, significantly higher than Guangdong's 0.2%, which reflects a divergence in investment trends since 2022[53] - In 2024, Jiangsu's investment in electricity and heat production grew by 98.7%, while Guangdong's was only 3.9%[56] Real Estate Sector - In 2024, Jiangsu's land finance dependency was 49%, compared to Guangdong's 31%, indicating a higher reliance on land finance in Jiangsu[11] - From 2020 to 2024, Jiangsu's land-related revenue decreased from 1.28 trillion yuan to 900 billion yuan, a drop of 3.8 billion yuan, while Guangdong's fell from 1.16 trillion yuan to 520 billion yuan, a reduction of 6.4 billion yuan[11] Consumer Spending - Since the pandemic, Guangdong's consumer spending growth has lagged behind Jiangsu's, attributed to differences in income growth and consumer behavior[12] - In 2024, Jiangsu's rural residents had a higher disposable income compared to Guangdong, contributing to a more robust consumption pattern in rural areas[12] Industrial Structure - Guangdong's industry is more downstream, producing 44% of the nation's industrial robots and 39% of optical electronic devices, while Jiangsu focuses on midstream production, contributing 33% of chemical fibers and 46% of ships[13] - In 2024, Jiangsu's exports to Belt and Road countries accounted for 47.5% of its total exports, surpassing Guangdong's nearly 40%[13]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国巨石（600176）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 价格复苏释放盈利空间，规模优势凸显 目标价：16 元 2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入 44.79 亿元，同比增长 32.42%，归母净利润 7.3 亿元，同比增长 108.52%。 评论： 风险提示：产能建设进展不及预期，原材料价格波动。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,856 | 17,415 | 19,470 | 21,389 | | 同比增速(%) | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,444 | 3,205 | 3,510 | 4,234 | | 同比增速(%) | -19.7% | 31.1% | 9.5% | 20.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.61 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 1.06 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 15 | 14 | 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 115 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 22 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational performance, achieving a revenue of 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, which is a 59.6% increase [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth momentum, particularly in the charging and energy storage segment, which generated 12.67 billion yuan in revenue, a 47.2% increase year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 32.13 billion yuan in 2025, 40.08 billion yuan in 2026, and 47.92 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 30.0%, 24.7%, and 19.6% [4]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.74 billion yuan in 2025, 3.44 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.16 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 29.4%, 25.7%, and 20.9% respectively [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 5.15 yuan in 2025, 6.47 yuan in 2026, and 7.83 yuan in 2027 [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The report indicates a PE ratio of 22 for 2025, decreasing to 14 in 2026 and 11 in 2027, while the PB ratio is projected to decline from 5.3 to 3.2 over the same period [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has experienced a significant correction, attributed to tariff concerns, but the report suggests that the underlying business fundamentals remain strong, with multiple quarters of exceeding market expectations [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 115 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 22 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational performance, achieving a revenue of 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, which is a 59.6% increase [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth momentum, particularly in the charging and energy storage segment, which generated 12.67 billion yuan in revenue, a 47.2% increase year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 24,710 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 41.1% - Net profit: 2,114 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 30.9% - Earnings per share (EPS): 3.98 yuan [4][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 32,128 million yuan - Expected year-on-year growth: 30.0% - Expected net profit: 2,737 million yuan - Expected year-on-year growth: 29.4% - Expected EPS: 5.15 yuan [4][8]. - **Long-term Projections**: - 2026 expected revenue: 40,075 million yuan, with a growth rate of 24.7% - 2027 expected revenue: 47,916 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19.6% [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has experienced a significant correction, attributed to tariff concerns, but the report suggests that the fundamentals remain strong with multiple quarters of exceeding market expectations [8]. - The report emphasizes that the company has successfully shifted production capacity to Southeast Asia, mitigating potential tariff impacts [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite recent stock price fluctuations, the company's strong financial performance and growth potential present a compelling long-term investment opportunity [8]. - The adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 5.15 yuan and 6.47 yuan respectively, indicating a positive outlook for earnings growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.753 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 541 million yuan, up 5.89% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its global presence with early overseas production base layouts and ongoing globalization of its proprietary brand [1][6]. - The target price is set at 30.23 yuan, with the current price at 23.26 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2,753 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 541 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [8]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 614 million yuan, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, but a net profit of 200 million yuan, which is an increase of 21.36% year-on-year [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.921 billion yuan, 3.300 billion yuan, and 3.659 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 13.0%, and 10.9% [7][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 642 million yuan in 2025, 679 million yuan in 2026, and 781 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 18.6%, 5.8%, and 15.1% respectively [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its global distribution channels and product series, with a focus on intelligent equipment [6]. - The establishment of a production base in Thailand is expected to improve competitiveness in the U.S. market amid tariff changes [6]. - The company aims to leverage its high proportion of proprietary brands and expand its market share through global channel development and new product introductions [7].