- The report includes multiple quantitative models for market timing, such as short-term, mid-term, and long-term models, which are integrated into a multi-cycle, multi-strategy system[11][13][68] - Short-term models include the volume model (neutral for most broad-based indices), low volatility model (neutral), institutional feature model (bullish), feature volume model (bearish), and intelligent algorithm models for CSI 300 (bearish) and CSI 500 (neutral)[13][68][76] - Mid-term models include the limit-up-and-down model (neutral) and calendar effect model (neutral)[14][69] - Long-term models include the momentum model, which is bullish[15][70] - Comprehensive models such as the A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 model and the A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 model are bearish[16][71] - For Hong Kong stocks, the mid-term turnover inverse volatility model is bearish[17][72] Model Backtesting Results - The short-term institutional feature model is bullish for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, while the feature volume model is bearish for CSI 300[13][68] - The long-term momentum model shows bullish signals across broad-based indices[15][70] - Comprehensive models indicate bearish signals for CSI 2000 and other indices[16][71] - The turnover inverse volatility model for Hong Kong stocks has turned bearish[17][72]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20251009-20251010） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，中证 500 下跌 0.19%，中证 1000 下跌 0.54%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 16.15%，相对于上周下跌了 1.54%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 19.98%，相对于上周下跌了 5.13%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 20.93%，相对于上周下跌了 4.16%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 16.61%，相 对于上周下跌了 1.67%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 9 月 19 日到 2025 年 9 月 25 日正 面信号共出现了 3059 次，未来高点平均胜率为 46.09%，负面信号出现 3051 次，未来低点平均胜率为 52.79%。 从宽基择时策略来看，创业板指、上证 50、中证 800、万得微盘股指数、中证 500、沪深 300、恒生金融类、恒生香港 35、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生 等权重、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数出现看多信号，其余宽基信 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chaoyun Group (06601.HK) with a target price of HKD 3.03 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 1.34 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 174 million, down 3.3% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 49.3%, up 2.9 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased to 12.8%, down 1.3 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the company's solid foundation in pesticide products and the synergistic growth driven by multiple product categories [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: HKD 1.82 billion - 2025: HKD 2.02 billion - 2026: HKD 2.21 billion - 2027: HKD 2.38 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 12.6% for 2024, 11.0% for 2025, 9.5% for 2026, and 7.6% for 2027 [3][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2024: HKD 203 million - 2025: HKD 218 million - 2026: HKD 243 million - 2027: HKD 274 million - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 12.1% [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on three main strategies to maintain profitability: 1. Significant scale effects from core products, optimizing production processes to reduce unit costs. 2. Increasing the proportion of high-margin new products, such as pet care and high-end cleaning products, to enhance overall gross margin structure. 3. Long-term partnerships in the supply chain and digital management to secure key raw material supplies, ensuring cost control [7]. - The multi-brand and multi-category strategy is deepening, with traditional brands like "Chao Wei" consolidating their market position while new brands like "Beibeijian" and "Jueqiang de Weiba" are rapidly penetrating niche markets [7]. Market Positioning - The report emphasizes that Chaoyun Group is a leading home care group in China, with a solid foundation in traditional categories and significant progress in new brands and markets [7]. - The company's collaborative effect from its "multi-brand + multi-category + omni-channel" strategy is expected to become more evident as consumer upgrades and segmented market demands continue to be released [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1) New products in the medical beauty sector, emphasizing the importance of product lifecycle and the potential of rare new products for growth and stability. Companies to watch include Qihuang Pharmaceutical and Lepu Medical [3]. 2) The rise of operational agencies, particularly those leveraging AI technology, with a focus on companies like Yiwang Yichuang and Qingmu Technology [3]. 3) The cosmetics sector, recommending attention to companies such as Shiseido, Maogeping, and Proya, which have strong brand matrices and growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of stocks in the industry is 104, with a total market value of 948.33 billion and a circulating market value of 885.12 billion [6]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Proya: - EPS forecast for 2025E: 4.6, 2026E: 5.1, 2027E: 5.6 - PE ratios: 2025E: 17.5, 2026E: 15.9, 2027E: 14.5 - PB ratio: 4.7 - Rating: Recommended [5] - Juzi Biological: - EPS forecast for 2025E: 2.3, 2026E: 2.8, 2027E: 3.4 - PE ratios: 2025E: 20.9, 2026E: 17.4, 2027E: 14.3 - PB ratio: 6.5 - Rating: Recommended [5] - Maogeping: - EPS forecast for 2025E: 2.4, 2026E: 3.1, 2027E: 4.0 - PE ratios: 2025E: 37.4, 2026E: 29.1, 2027E: 23.0 - PB ratio: 9.7 - Rating: Strongly Recommended [5]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month is -4.9%, 6 months is +10.4%, and 12 months is +32.4%. The relative performance shows a decline of -8.7% over 1 month, -13.2% over 6 months, and an increase of +16.9% over 12 months [7]. Upcoming Promotions - The report discusses the upcoming Double 11 promotions, highlighting changes in discount strategies across platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and JD, with Tmall extending its promotional period to 31 days and implementing a direct discount strategy [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][70]. Core Insights - In the first eight months of 2025, China's total vehicle exports reached 4.26 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, but the export volume now accounts for approximately 20.2% of China's total vehicle wholesale [2][10]. - The export of new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 35% of total vehicle exports, with 1.51 million NEVs exported in the same period, significantly up from 22% in 2024 [2][9]. - Major contributors to the export growth include Chery, BYD, and SAIC, with Chery exporting 800,000 units (19% share) and BYD exporting 630,000 units (15% share), marking a substantial increase from previous years [9][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Export Performance - China's total vehicle exports in the first eight months of 2025 reached 4.26 million units, up 13% year-on-year, with a monthly export volume consistently above 500,000 units since March 2025, peaking over 600,000 units in August [2][10]. - The share of vehicle exports in total vehicle wholesale has increased by approximately 1.6 percentage points compared to 2024 [2]. Breakdown by Structure - In terms of vehicle type, commercial vehicles accounted for 15% of exports, while passenger vehicles made up 85%, showing little change from 2024 [9]. - The NEV export volume reached 1.51 million units, with a notable increase in market penetration, particularly driven by domestic manufacturers like BYD [9][10]. Breakdown by Brand - Chery led the exports with 800,000 units, followed by BYD with 630,000 units, and SAIC with 330,000 units. The rankings reflect a significant rise in BYD's market share from 7% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [9][10]. Breakdown by Region - Mexico was the largest market for Chinese vehicle exports, receiving 360,000 units, followed by the UAE and Belgium with 320,000 and 290,000 units, respectively [9][10]. - The share of Chinese vehicles in overseas markets has increased from approximately 2% in 2020 to 9.4% in the first eight months of 2025 [9][10]. Export Value - The export value of complete vehicles and auto parts reached $84.29 billion and $64.46 billion, respectively, accounting for 3.4% and 2.6% of China's total exports [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that all three major indices have experienced five consecutive months of gains, with the ChiNext 50 index rising by 59.45% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.73% in Q3 2025 [1][9][10] - In terms of industry performance, only a few sectors reported negative returns, with the telecommunications sector up by 50.20% and the electronics sector up by 44.49% [1][11] - The report highlights that the timing models for Q3 2025 generally achieved absolute positive returns, although it was challenging to outperform the benchmark itself [1][5] Group 2 - The report suggests a positive outlook for Q4 2025, particularly favoring sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, telecommunications, and comprehensive sectors [2] - The report emphasizes the development of various effective strategies based on historical timing, industry rotation, and stock selection models [5][6] - The report outlines the performance of different types of funds, noting that equity mixed funds had the best average return of 25.83% during a period of rising market indices [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, convertible bonds followed the decline of underlying stocks, and the valuation compressed on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, while the overall market capitalization decreased [1]. - The large - cap value style was relatively dominant [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.45% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.70%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.55%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.49% [1]. - Market style: Large - cap growth decreased by 3.45%, large - cap value increased by 0.50%, mid - cap growth decreased by 2.74%, mid - cap value increased by 0.15%, small - cap growth decreased by 2.24%, and small - cap value increased by 0.13% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 70.395 billion yuan, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.534146 trillion yuan, a 5.15% month - on - month decrease; the net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 92.96 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.06bp to 1.85% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.54 yuan, a 0.45% decrease from yesterday. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 183.44 yuan, a 1.22% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.86 yuan, a 0.06% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 128.15 yuan, with no change [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 57.97%, a 1.36 - percentage - point decrease from yesterday. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range increased by 2.44 percentage points to 29.47%. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.31 yuan, a 0.37% decrease from yesterday [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation compressed. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 30.39%, a 0.17 - percentage - point decrease from yesterday; the overall weighted par value was 101.40 yuan, a 0.76% decrease from yesterday. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 10.70%, a 0.02 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.97%, a 4.02 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.33%, a 0.52 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, 18 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were building materials (+1.92%), coal (+1.37%), and textile and apparel (+1.30%); the top three industries in terms of decline were electronics (-4.71%), power equipment (-4.46%), and computer (-3.70%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were beauty care (+2.25%), steel (+1.06%), and banking (+0.69%); the top three industries in terms of decline were environmental protection (-5.77%), communication (-3.12%), and electronics (-2.81%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.88%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.67%, the technology sector decreased by 2.27%, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.10%, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.42% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.79 percentage points, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.8 percentage points, the technology sector increased by 0.58 percentage points, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.34 percentage points, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.15 percentage points [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.50%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.97%, the technology sector decreased by 2.61%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.28%, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.71% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.3 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.93 percentage points, the technology sector decreased by 3.6 percentage points, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.19 percentage points, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.49 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Building materials, coal, and textile and apparel led the rise. For example, building materials had a daily increase of 1.92% in the underlying stock market and 0.64% in the convertible bond market; coal had a daily increase of 1.37% in the underlying stock market and 0.37% in the convertible bond market; textile and apparel had a daily increase of 1.30% in the underlying stock market and - 0.10% in the convertible bond market [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

Group 1: Market Performance - Global equities outperformed other asset classes with a return of 3.31% in September, followed by global bonds at 0.65% and commodities at 0.05%[1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached historical highs despite the U.S. government shutdown, driven by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - The Bloomberg U.S. high-yield corporate bond credit spread narrowed to 2.67%, indicating strong investor confidence in corporate credit quality[4] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers increased their allocations to equities, particularly in sectors like technology and healthcare, while reducing exposure to utilities and emerging markets[4] - The Indian stock market lagged behind the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence in outlook between domestic and foreign investors[5] - Speculative net positions in the Japanese yen decreased to 79,500 contracts, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards a weaker yen[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ratio of exchange rate volatility between emerging markets and G7 countries fell to 0.76, the lowest level since 2013, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades[7] - The Federal Reserve's reserve balances dropped below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to increased Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening[8] - The correlation between the S&P 500 and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) reached -0.88, indicating that stock market gains are supported by low interest rate volatility[9] Group 4: Regional Developments - Hong Kong's overnight interbank lending rate surged to 5.35%, the highest in nearly a year, due to liquidity tightening measures by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority[10] - Gold prices continued to rise, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties[2]