2025 年 05 月 18 日 公用事业及环保产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 公共事业与环保组 分析师：李蓉（执业 S1130525040001） lirong＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张君昊（执业 S1130524070001） zhangjunhao1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：唐执敬（执业 S1130525020002） tangzhijing＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：汪知瑶 wangzhiyao＠gjzq.com.cn 从 GDP 增长的归因分析看电力消费弹性系数的变化 ◼ 本周（5.12-5.16）上证综指上涨 0.76%，创业板指上涨 1.38%。碳中和板块上涨 0.30%，公用事业板块上涨 0.24%， 环保板块上涨 0.17%,煤炭板块上涨 1.81%。 ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好的龙头火电企业，如华能国际、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。核电：建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企 业中国核电。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 历年来 GDP 增长的刺激因子发生结构性变 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 1 percentage point to 43%. The proportion of indicators in the overheated range among 20 micro - indicators rose to 20%, those in the neutral range decreased to 30%, and those in the cold range remained at 50%. Different types of indicators showed various changes in their values and ranges [2][3][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period, the reading of the micro - transaction thermometer dropped 1 percentage point to 43% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" decreased by 1 percentage point to 43%. Indicators with larger declines include TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, market and policy spreads, and commodity price ratio. Indicators with larger increases are 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates, with their percentile values rising by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and fund ultra - long bond buying volume [2][14]. 3.2. This period, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 4 are in the over - heated range (20%), 6 in the neutral range (30%), and 10 in the cold range (50%). The ranges of some indicators have changed: stock - bond price ratio and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range; TL/T long - short ratio dropped from the over - heated to the neutral range; 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates rose from the cold and neutral ranges to the over - heated range respectively; allocation disk strength rose from the cold to the neutral range [3][19]. - Transaction heat percentile value increased by 17 percentage points. Except for the TL/T long - short ratio, whose percentile value dropped by 33 percentage points, other transaction heat indicators' percentile values all increased. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates' percentile values increased significantly by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively. The average percentile value of transaction heat increased by 17 percentage points. Among institutional behavior indicators, except for the allocation disk strength whose percentile value increased by 16 percentage points, other indicators' percentile values dropped. The fund duration and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile values decreased by 25 and 51 percentage points respectively, driving the average percentile value of institutional behavior down by 10 percentage points. Market and policy spread percentile values both increased, driving the average spread percentile value down by 12 percentage points. Stock - bond, commodity, and real estate price ratio percentile values all dropped, while the consumer goods price ratio percentile value increased slightly by 9 percentage points, and the average percentile value of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19]. 3.2.1. Relative turnover rate percentile value increased significantly - In transaction heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 33%, in the neutral range remained at 17%, and in the cold range dropped to 50%. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates' percentile values increased by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively, with the former rising from the cold to the over - heated range and the latter from the neutral to the over - heated range. The TL/T long - short ratio percentile value dropped 33 percentage points to 51%, falling from the over - heated to the neutral range [5][21]. 3.2.2. Allocation disk strength continued to rise - Among institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 25%, 50%, and 25% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile value dropped 51 percentage points to 6%, falling from the neutral to the cold range, while the allocation disk strength percentile value increased 16 percentage points, rising from the cold to the neutral range [6][22]. 3.2.3. Policy spread continued to widen under the bond market correction - The bond market corrected comprehensively. The spread between the 3 - year Treasury bond and OMO increased from 6bp to 11bp, and its percentile value dropped 14 percentage points to 22%, still in the cold range. Credit spread, Agricultural Development - China Development spread continued to compress by 6bp and 1bp to 46bp and 10bp respectively, while the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 13bp to - 5bp. The average spread of the three widened by 2bp to 17bp, and its percentile value dropped 10 percentage points to 41%, in the neutral range [7][29]. 3.2.4. Consumer goods price ratio percentile value increased by 9 percentage points - All price - ratio indicators are in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio percentile value dropped 8 percentage points to 36%, falling from the neutral to the cold range. The commodity price ratio percentile value dropped significantly by 19 percentage points to 8%, still in the cold range [8][31].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a defensive stance in the bond market, with long-term interest rates declining initially before concerns about liquidity resurfaced [2][7] - The market has shown a tendency towards a defensive posture, as evidenced by a decrease in the median duration of medium to long-term bond funds and a significant sell-off in ultra-long bonds [2][7] - The report highlights that most assets have completed over 80% of their recovery from the recent volatility, with equity assets showing strong rebounds while commodities lag behind [3][10][14] Group 2 - The report discusses the potential risks of a repeat of the tight liquidity scenario seen in the first quarter, noting that while there are some similarities in the macro environment, there are also significant differences, particularly regarding domestic demand uncertainty [4][16] - It is suggested that the current long-term interest rates are at the lower end of a reasonable range, with key indicators such as credit growth and return on invested capital (ROIC) providing context for this assessment [4][17] - The report emphasizes that further opening of long-term interest rate space will depend on effective movement in short-term rates, which currently lack downward momentum without triggering factors [5][20][33] Group 3 - The report outlines that the bond market's recovery is contingent on the central bank's actions regarding currency stability and potential resumption of government bond trading operations [5][25][29] - It notes that the current market valuation is at the lower end of a reasonable range, with the yield curve expected to remain flat and weakly oscillating [5][33] - The report also mentions that the central bank's recent actions, including net withdrawals of funds, have influenced the bond market's performance, with various maturities experiencing upward pressure on yields [34][39]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a limited expected change in performance compared to the market over the next 3-6 months [72]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a slight increase of 0.05% during the week [12][13]. - The report highlights the ongoing fluctuations in pig prices, with a current average price of 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.42% [19][30]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price adjustments due to seasonal demand and external factors like avian influenza, with white feather chicken prices currently at 7.40 yuan/kg [30][35]. - The dairy and beef sectors are expected to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints continue, with a potential upward trend in raw milk prices anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][36]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market cycle, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2620.55 points, with a weekly increase of 0.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors included beauty care and non-bank financials, while the agricultural sector ranked 20th [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.71 kg, with a stable trend compared to previous weeks [19]. - The report indicates a potential downward pressure on pig prices due to increased supply and inventory adjustments [20]. - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are positioned for better profitability amid market fluctuations [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices have seen a slight decrease, but there is an expectation of recovery as consumer demand improves [30][35]. - The report notes a significant reduction in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to external factors, which may impact future production [35]. 2.3 Livestock - The beef market is showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for calves and live cattle, indicating a potential new cycle in the beef sector [36]. - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as supply constraints are addressed, with raw milk prices projected to recover in the latter half of 2025 [4][36]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies on commodity prices, with fluctuations observed in major agricultural products [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [5][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various fish species [58]. - The report indicates that aquaculture prices are holding steady, suggesting a stable market environment for aquatic products [58].

Group 1: Consumption Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth new consumption sectors, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional companies transitioning to new consumption [3][13] - High-growth new consumption opportunities include new tobacco products, beauty care, trendy toys, pet products, and tea beverages [3][13] - Dividend defensive stocks are prioritized due to unclear policy signals and ongoing domestic demand impacts, with a focus on white goods [3][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Midstream Consumption Tracking - In April, the domestic CPI remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.5% [4][14] - April's export growth reached 8.1% year-on-year, marking the highest since 2022, although it showed signs of slowing due to a decrease in home appliance exports [4][16] Group 3: Home Appliances - In April, the overall retail sales of home appliances increased by 21.8% online and 18.6% offline, with the national subsidy for 11 major categories growing by 18.2% [7][28] - Specific categories showed varied performance: air conditioners up 34.8%, refrigerators up 1.0%, and washing machines up 10.8% online [7][28][29] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is experiencing upward momentum, with clear growth trends in the HNB industry and potential market share gains for companies like Smoore International [7][30] - The trendy toy market remains robust, with GMV growth of 109% in April year-on-year, driven by new company entries and innovative operational strategies [7][30] Group 5: Textile and Apparel - The easing of US tariffs is expected to boost export and domestic demand, with a focus on new consumption and brands with unique advantages [7][33][37] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery in client confidence following tariff reductions, which may lead to increased orders and improved domestic factory utilization [7][37] Group 6: Social Services - The tea beverage sector is benefiting from improved same-store sales and competitive dynamics in the takeaway market, with expectations for further growth [7][35] - Hotel performance showed strong leisure demand during the May holiday, although business travel remains weak [7][35] Group 7: Retail and E-commerce - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market is evolving, with regulatory pressures on major platforms like Meituan and JD, although the overall competition remains intense [7][36] - Meituan's initiatives in instant retail and national subsidies are expected to impact JD's core categories significantly [7][38]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative large model companies such as iFLYTEK, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications, recommending companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology [2] Core Insights - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with computing power sustaining high levels and application acceleration [11] - The report anticipates that overall demand in the second half of the year may be stronger than in the first half, driven by policy and funding support [11] - The report identifies several sectors with varying degrees of prosperity, including AI, intelligent driving, software outsourcing, and financial IT, with some sectors like construction and medical IT showing weaker prospects [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report discusses the launch of image generation features by Manus and video generation models by Huoshan Engine, emphasizing the flexibility and commercial potential of these technologies [11] - It notes that approximately 90% of computing demand comes from domestic G-end and large B-end users, indicating a lag in demand response to policy changes [11] 2. Sector Performance - The report categorizes the prosperity of various sub-sectors, indicating that AI applications and intelligent driving are accelerating upwards, while sectors like construction IT and medical IT are at a low point [10][12] 3. Market Review - From May 12 to May 16, 2025, the computer industry index fell by 1.26%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [16] 4. Upcoming Events - The report highlights several upcoming industry events, including the VR/AR Expo in Shanghai and the Google I/O Developer Conference, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [30][31]

通信周观点： 1）美国商务部 5 月 13 日升级对华芯片管制，撤销《AI 扩散规则》并出台三项新规：全球禁用华为昇腾芯片、限制美 芯片用于中国 AI 训练、强化供应链审查。此外黄仁勋受访时表示英伟达将重新推出面向中国市场的芯片，但不会再 推出 Hopper 系列产品，预计将采用 GDDR7 显存替代 HBM 高带宽内存，以满足美国出口限制要求。我们认为从性能看， 国产芯片性能或将大超英伟达改版后芯片性能，利好国产算力芯片。2）因英伟达 AI 芯片出货量不及预期（GB200 出 货不及预期，且 H20 受到管制，NVIDIA 计提约 55 亿美元的与 H20 相关的费用损失），而国内芯片供应增长需要时间， 阿里、腾讯等互联网厂商 1Q25 资本支出略低于市场预期。我们认为短期看，互联网厂商全年资本开支可能略有下滑， 但这也将加速 AI 芯片的国产替代进程。长期看伴随国产 AI 芯片的起量，AI 仍将驱动业务增长。3）英伟达 5 月 14 日 宣布在上海设立 AI 芯片研发中心，并与沙特签署 18000 台 GB300 服务器订单。此举凸显其全球布局战略，将推动高 速光模块及液冷技术需求。海外算力基建需求激增， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, highlighting key companies such as Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar for continued recommendation [2][5]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from a state of excess supply to a more balanced market, driven by both policy support and self-initiated industry adjustments. The easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as a significant benefit for large-scale energy storage [2][5]. - In the wind energy sector, major contracts and investments are being made, indicating a robust growth trajectory for leading turbine manufacturers [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence in the power grid, suggesting that companies involved in grid informatization will benefit from this trend [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with government policies aimed at resolving structural issues. The focus is shifting from forced interventions to voluntary industry cooperation [2][5]. - Key developments include the issuance of manufacturing standards by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the publication of a white paper on artificial intelligence in the power sector [5][8]. - Recommended companies include Sungrow Power, Canadian Solar, and others that are expected to benefit from the easing of trade tensions and new pricing policies [5][8]. Wind Energy - Major contracts, such as a €1 billion order from a European offshore wind project, highlight the growth potential in this sector. The report anticipates nearly 20 GW of offshore wind projects to be tendered between 2025 and 2026 [5][6]. - Companies like Goldwind and Envision are expected to see improved profitability as they expand their international presence [5][6]. Electric Grid - The National Grid's white paper on artificial intelligence outlines a comprehensive plan for integrating AI into power production, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. - The report notes that the upcoming high-voltage direct current projects are set to commence in December 2025, indicating a significant investment phase for related companies [7][8]. New Energy Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - The report indicates a slowdown in year-on-year growth for new energy vehicles, with a current growth rate of approximately 5%. However, a month-on-month increase of 30% suggests seasonal fluctuations are normal [3][9]. - The reduction of tariffs on lithium batteries is expected to boost exports to the US, with companies like BETTERRY and Guoxuan High-Tech launching new solid-state battery products [3][11]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The development of green liquid fuels is gaining momentum, with pilot projects being initiated in Jiangsu province. This is expected to create new opportunities in the hydrogen sector [10][12]. - The report highlights the importance of hydrogen highways as a key application for hydrogen vehicles, with several provinces implementing toll exemptions to promote this initiative [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with high growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly in AI-PCB, SOC chips, computing power chips, and the Apple supply chain [5][27]. Core Insights - The upcoming COMPUTEX 2025 will showcase significant advancements in AI and related technologies, with major companies like NVIDIA and AMD presenting their latest innovations [2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for consumer electronics driven by product upgrades and AI innovations, predicting a 13.37% revenue growth in the consumer electronics sector for 2024 [6]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a robust recovery, with significant growth in demand for AI-related hardware and components [24][25]. Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Revenue for consumer electronics in 2024 is projected at 1,642.456 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.25% and a net profit increase of 13.37% [6]. - The demand is driven by both traditional product upgrades and new AI applications, including AI smartphones and robotics [6]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with expectations of continued high demand due to AI and consumer electronics [9]. - The report indicates a strong recovery in the PCB sector, particularly in copper-clad laminate, with anticipated substantial growth in Q2 2025 [9]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is projected to benefit from increased capital expenditures from cloud computing companies, with a notable rise in DRAM and NAND Flash prices expected [23]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of geopolitical tensions and export controls [24]. Key Companies - Companies such as North Huachuang and Hengxuan Technology are highlighted for their strong positions in the semiconductor equipment and AIoT sectors, respectively [29][30]. - Jiangfeng Electronics is noted for its growth in ultra-pure target materials, which are crucial for semiconductor manufacturing [32]. - The report also emphasizes the potential of companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Huiding Technology in benefiting from the AI-driven storage upgrade trend [34][31].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the carbon fiber sector, particularly for companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Shenying, due to increasing demand driven by the low-altitude economy and UAV applications [14][15]. Core Insights - Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet 3K carbon fiber products, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [14]. - The carbon fiber composite materials are critical for lightweighting in low-altitude economy aircraft, comprising approximately 60-80% of the total structure weight of UAVs [14]. - The eVTOL market in China is projected to exceed 100,000 units by 2030, potentially increasing carbon fiber demand by approximately 20,400 tons [14]. - The report highlights ongoing supportive policies for the low-altitude economy, including a 300 million yuan annual fund in Sichuan to promote development [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - Jilin Chemical Fiber's price adjustment reflects the growing demand in the low-altitude economy and UAV sectors, with carbon fiber being a key material [14]. 2. Belt and Road Initiative - Recent developments include Colombia's intention to join the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation agreements signed between China and Brazil [15]. 3. Cyclical Linkage - The report provides insights into various construction materials, noting a slight decline in cement prices and stable pricing in the glass and fiberglass sectors [16][19]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The home appliance market shows significant growth during the May Day holiday, with online retail sales increasing by 24.7% year-on-year [17]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between the US and China, which may positively impact trade dynamics [18]. 6. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a slight decline of 0.29% during the week, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing experiencing a 0.60% drop [19]. 7. Building Material Price Changes - Cement prices have decreased by 1.1%, with regional variations noted, while glass prices have also shown a downward trend due to weak demand [28][41].