Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the bond market adjustment, credit bonds were relatively strong, with the yields of 1Y - term varieties declining against the trend. The yields of interest - rate bonds rose across the board this week due to the increased risk appetite brought by the rise in the equity market. Credit bond yields generally followed the interest - rate increase but showed relative strength. Credit spreads mostly declined, and the spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds also showed various downward trends, while the performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat while those of urban investment bonds increased slightly [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Credit bonds were relatively strong in the bond market adjustment, and the yields of 1Y - term varieties declined against the trend - Affected by the increased risk appetite from the equity market, the yields of interest - rate bonds rose across the board this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y term China Development Bank bonds rose by 5BP, 4BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the interest - rate increase, but 1Y - term and some 10Y - term varieties had declining yields. The yields of 1Y - term credit bonds of all ratings declined by 1 - 2BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with high - grade 7Y - term varieties rising slightly. Rating spreads and term spreads mostly remained flat or declined [2][5]. 2. The spreads of urban investment bonds declined across the board, and medium - and low - grade varieties performed better - The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA - grade urban investment platforms declined by 3BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively. The spreads of most AAA - grade platforms declined by 2 - 4BP, with Inner Mongolia down 8BP; the spreads of most AA + - grade platforms declined by 3 - 5BP, with Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Tibet having relatively large declines; the spreads of most AA - grade platforms declined by 4 - 6BP, with Yunnan down 9BP and Guizhou down 12BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms declined by 3BP, 4BP, and 4BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Most spreads of industrial bonds declined, and the spreads of AAA - grade coal bonds declined significantly - This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds declined by 5 - 6BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds declined by 1BP, and the spreads of private - enterprise real - estate bonds rose by 2BP. Longfor's spreads declined by 20BP, Midea Real Estate's by 5BP, Vanke's by 5BP, and Gemdale's by 4BP, while CIFI's rose by 151BP [2][13]. - The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA - grade coal bonds declined by 13BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + - grade steel bonds declined by 5BP and 2BP respectively; the spreads of all - grade chemical bonds declined by 4 - 6BP [2][13]. 4. The performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the spreads of 3Y - term varieties rose - Affected by the increase in certificate of deposit prices, the performance of secondary perpetual bonds was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds this week, and the spreads of 3Y - term varieties rose. The yields of 1Y - term secondary perpetual bonds of all ratings rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y - term AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rose by 6BP, and those of other ratings rose by 4BP, with spreads rising by 0 - 2BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 5BP, and the spreads rose by 1BP [2][25][27]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds increased slightly - This week, the excess spreads of 3Y - term AAA industrial perpetual bonds remained flat at 3.82BP, at the 0.95% quantile since 2015; the 5Y - term excess spreads remained flat at 8.51BP, at the 6.38% quantile. The excess spreads of 3Y - term AAA urban investment perpetual bonds rose by 0.64BP to 4.40BP, at the 0.59% quantile; the 5Y - term excess spreads rose by 0.21BP to 10.12BP, at the 10.27% quantile [2][29]. 6. Credit spread database compilation instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [35]. - Industrial and urban investment individual - bond credit spreads = individual - bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - same - term China Development Bank bond yield to maturity (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the credit spreads of industries or regional urban investments are obtained by the arithmetic mean method [35]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of bank ordinary bonds of the same rating and term; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of medium - term notes of the same rating and term [35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a 3.90% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and plate steel also experiencing gains [2][10] - Despite a decrease in iron and steel production, the average daily molten iron output remains above last year's levels, indicating resilience in the market [3][25] - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing the market, which may lead to a gradual recovery in steel prices and profitability [3][41] - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting real estate and infrastructure investments [3][34] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 3.90%, with sub-segments like special steel up by 1.64% and plate steel up by 4.51% [2][10] - Iron ore prices increased by 7.16%, indicating strong demand for raw materials [12] 2. Supply Data - As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.9%, down by 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.61 million tons, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous week [25][30] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.73 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.38% [34] - The transaction volume for construction steel was 99,000 tons, down 7.04% week-on-week [34] 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.14 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.23% week-on-week, but down 29.02% year-on-year [41][39] - Factory inventory increased to 4.26 million tons, up 0.42% week-on-week [41][40] 5. Price and Profitability - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,428.5 CNY/ton, up 1.14% week-on-week [47] - The profit for rebar production was 196 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.81% week-on-week [56] - The average cost of molten iron was 2,173 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 25 CNY/ton [56] 6. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in firms like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to see earnings growth [72]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid progress in the construction of zero-carbon parks in China, as announced by three government departments, which sets clear guidelines and eight key tasks for the establishment of these parks [11] - The issuance of ESG bonds in China has reached 3,628, with a total scale of 5.57 trillion RMB, where green bonds account for the largest share at 61.88% [26] - The total net value of existing ESG public funds is 1,055.14 billion RMB, with ESG strategy products making up the largest proportion at 52.97% [32] - The report indicates that major ESG indices have underperformed the market recently, with the CSI 300 ESG index showing the smallest increase of 0.06% [38] Summary by Sections Domestic Highlights - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to promote the construction of zero-carbon parks, outlining basic conditions and key tasks for low-carbon transformation [11] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated significant budgets for environmental governance in 2025, including 10.7 billion RMB for water pollution prevention and 25.4 billion RMB for ecological protection [12] International Highlights - The EU has passed a law to simplify classification reporting by 2026, aiming to reduce compliance burdens for companies [3][20] - The ISS STOXX has released a Sovereign Climate Impact Report to help investors assess climate risks and opportunities [18] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of July 12, 2025, the total number of ESG bonds issued in China is 3,628, with a total issuance amount of 1,212.5 billion RMB in the past year [26] - The market has 904 existing ESG products, with a total net value of 1,055.14 billion RMB, and 238 ESG public funds issued in the past year [32] Index Tracking - Major ESG indices have underperformed the market recently, with the CSI 300 ESG index showing a minimal increase of 0.06% [38] Expert Opinions - Experts highlight that strong governmental support, technological empowerment, and the role of Hong Kong as an international financial center are key factors in China's ESG governance progress [40]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series. It aims to continuously hedge using futures contracts to minimize basis risk[44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to July 11, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantities for both the spot and futures sides based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days. On that day, close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to July 11, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantities for both the spot and futures sides based on the product's net value[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing and select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening positions. Hold the same contract for eight trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days before selecting a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -2.83% (monthly), -2.06% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.87% (monthly), 4.77% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.26% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.9188 (monthly), 0.9405 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -3.58% (monthly), -1.35% (quarterly)[48] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 0.49% (monthly), 0.71% (quarterly)[51] - Volatility: 3.01% (monthly), 3.35% (quarterly)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[51] - Net Value: 1.0144 (monthly), 1.0211 (quarterly)[51] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[51] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.89% (monthly), 0.12% (quarterly)[51] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.03% (monthly), 1.97% (quarterly)[54] - Volatility: 3.12% (monthly), 3.54% (quarterly)[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.76% (quarterly)[54] - Net Value: 1.0307 (monthly), 1.0593 (quarterly)[54] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[54] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.01% (monthly), 0.99% (quarterly)[54] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -6.04% (monthly), -4.45% (quarterly)[59] - Volatility: 4.74% (monthly), 5.79% (quarterly)[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[59] - Net Value: 0.8469 (monthly), 0.8805 (quarterly)[59] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[59] - 2025 YTD Return: -9.11% (monthly), -4.54% (quarterly)[59] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -1.06%[48] - Volatility: 4.67%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[48] - Net Value: 0.9692[48] - Annual Turnover: 17.28[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.96%[48] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.31%[51] - Volatility: 3.14%[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[51] - Net Value: 1.0392[51] - Annual Turnover: 15.25[51] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.56%[51] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.72%[54] - Volatility: 3.14%[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[54] - Net Value: 1.0516[54] - Annual Turnover: 15.93[54] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.04%[54] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -3.83%[59] - Volatility: 5.59%[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[59] - Net Value: 0.8949[59] - Annual Turnover: 15.91[59] - 2025 YTD Return: -3.89%[59] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture expectations over different time horizons[61] - **Factor Construction Process**: Adjusted based on overseas methodologies and tailored to China's options market. The index reflects implied volatility from options pricing[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and risk expectations[61] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme events[69][70] - **Factor Construction Process**: Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves to quantify the degree of skewness, with higher values indicating greater concern for tail risks[69][70] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for identifying market concerns about potential extreme downside risks[70] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 19.77[61] - CSI 300: 18.92[61] - CSI 500: 25.01[61] - CSI 1000: 23.34[61] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 97.27[70] - CSI 300: 99.19[70] - CSI 500: 102.27[70] - CSI 1000: 101.82[70]

Group 1 - The environmental industry has shown significant growth, with the Shenwan (2021) environmental industry index rising by 3.34% as of June 20, 2025, ranking 9th among 31 industries. Key sectors such as monitoring/detection, air pollution control, and solid waste treatment have experienced substantial increases of 18.3%, 7.9%, and 7.8% respectively [8][10][11] - The overall PE ratio for the environmental sector is 35.62X as of June 20, 2025, indicating a notable increase compared to the first half of 2024. Specific sectors like water treatment and solid waste management have PE ratios of 23.8X and 30.2X respectively, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry driven by policy incentives and market mechanisms [10][12][17] Group 2 - The public utility price reform is progressing, with water price adjustments becoming a trend. Major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have implemented water price increases ranging from 10% to 30%, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable pricing mechanism [18][21][22] - The ongoing debt reduction efforts are expected to improve the accounts receivable situation for some operational companies in the water and solid waste sectors. The government’s commitment to resolving local debt risks is anticipated to facilitate quicker recovery of receivables [28][30][31] Group 3 - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitution and intelligent upgrades in the environmental sector, particularly in scientific instruments and sanitation equipment. The demand for carbon measurement and monitoring devices is expected to rise due to supportive national policies and the expansion of the carbon trading market [17][19] - The sanitation equipment market is poised for growth, with a notable increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, which reached a penetration rate of 15.4% in Q1 2025. The integration of autonomous sanitation solutions is also gaining traction [19][21][26] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on stable operational assets in the waste incineration and water sectors, as well as growth opportunities in scientific instruments and sanitation equipment. Companies such as Huanlan Environment, Xinyuan Environment, and Hongcheng Environment are highlighted for their strong performance and dividend potential [5][6][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with high operational efficiency and significant water service revenue, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated water price increases [24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has reported better-than-expected performance, with a forecasted revenue of 7.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.25 billion and 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5% to 15% [1][2] - The impact of tariff changes has been mitigated, and the company is expected to return to a stable growth trajectory due to its global production capacity layout, new product launches in electric tools, and innovations in cross-border e-commerce channels [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 790 million and 910 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 1.6% to 16.9% [1][2] - The company’s gross margin continues to improve, driven by price increases in the downstream markets and increased sales of new products, particularly electric tools [2] Tariff and Global Strategy - The company faced significant operational disruptions due to U.S. tariff policy changes, with approximately 40 days of order delivery being affected in Q2. However, the company has successfully adjusted prices and increased overseas shipments to maintain revenue stability [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is diminishing, with a new agreement reached between Vietnam and the U.S. regarding a 20% tariff, allowing the company to accelerate its production capacity in Southeast Asia [2] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current low point in industry prosperity may soon reverse, as the impacts of tariff friction are gradually fading. The company is well-positioned to gain market share due to its integrated global operations and cost advantages [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.92 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.5X, 9.5X, and 8.2X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the net repayment of urban investment bonds decreased but was weaker than the seasonal trend. The number of first - time bond - issuing entities increased significantly, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in bond issuance increased slightly. The number of new financing entities increased, still mainly in the transportation infrastructure sector. Also, 30 new urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" [5][9][29]. Summary According to the Directory 1. In June, the net repayment of urban investment bonds decreased but was weaker than the seasonal trend, and the number of first - time bond - issuing entities increased significantly - **Net Repayment Situation**: In June, the net repayment of urban investment bonds was 43.6 billion yuan. Although the net repayment scale decreased compared to May, the decline compared to the same period in previous years further expanded. The net financing scale of exchange - traded urban investment bonds turned negative, and the net repayment scale of association - issued urban investment bonds decreased. Zhejiang, Anhui, Jilin and other 11 provinces had positive net financing, while Sichuan, Hunan, Shanghai and other 19 provinces had net repayment [5][9]. - **Early Repayment**: The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in June increased by 4.6 billion yuan to 9.7 billion yuan compared to May, but the scale of announced early repayment and cash tender offers decreased slightly [5]. - **Termination of Approval**: The number and scale of exchange - traded urban investment bonds whose approval was terminated in June increased compared to May [5]. - **First - time Bond - issuing Entities**: There were 30 first - time bond - issuing entities in June, 13 more than in May. They were mainly distributed in Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu. Most of the funds raised were used to repay interest - bearing debts, and the issuance was mainly through exchange - traded private placement bonds [23]. 2. In June, the proportion of borrowing new to repay old in bond issuance increased slightly, and the number of new financing entities increased but still mainly in the transportation infrastructure sector - **Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old**: The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in urban investment bond issuance in June increased slightly by 0.9 percentage points to 82.62%. The proportion of repaying interest - bearing debts continued to rise, while the proportion of supplementary working capital, project construction, and equity investment decreased. In terms of regions, the borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio in Guizhou, Ningxia, Tianjin, Tibet, and Yunnan remained at 100%, and the ratio in 11 provinces such as Beijing, Shanxi, and Chongqing increased, while that in 9 provinces such as Guangxi, Hubei, and Hebei decreased [29][30]. - **New Financing Entities**: In June, the association issued 26 bonds involving 19 entities with a total issuance scale of 28.91 billion yuan, mainly in Jiangxi, Fujian, and Jiangsu, and mostly transportation infrastructure entities. The exchange issued 59 bonds involving 52 entities with a total issuance scale of 40.71 billion yuan [31][32]. 3. In June, 30 new entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities - **Accumulated Declaration Situation**: As of the end of June, a total of 403 urban investment entities declared themselves as "market - oriented operating entities" when issuing bonds. In terms of regions, 10 provinces including Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu had a total of 334 entities making such declarations, accounting for 82.88%. In terms of levels, AA + entities accounted for 53.35% [39]. - **New Declaration in June**: In June, 30 new urban investment entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, including 22 in the association and 8 in the exchange. Only Shenzhen Anju and Xuzhou Metro achieved new financing among them [6]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spread deviation between market - oriented operating entities and non - declared entities continued to converge, and there was still no significant differentiation [6].

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Zhujiang Beer, particularly with the rapid expansion of its 97 Pure Draft product since its launch in 2019, which has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 99% from 2.79 million tons in 2019 to 22.07 million tons in 2022 [7][17] - Despite concerns about the slowdown in the premium beer segment, regional beers, particularly in the 8-10 yuan price range, continue to show strong growth, with Zhujiang Beer positioned favorably in the Guangdong market [15][17] - The report anticipates that Zhujiang Beer will achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45, 0.56, and 0.67 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2025 to 2027 [7][8] Company Overview - Zhujiang Beer, established in 1985, is a major state-owned enterprise in the beer brewing and cultural industry, with a brand value of 18.8 billion yuan [19][22] - The company has a strong market presence in Guangdong, which is the second-largest beer-producing province in China, with a beer production of 4.54 million tons in 2023 [16][19] Industry Review - The report notes that regional beers have outperformed leading brands since 2021, with Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Chongqing Beer showing CAGRs of 4.8%, 4.3%, and 3.7% respectively, while leading brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery have seen CAGRs of only 0.4% and 0.5% [15][41] - The overall beer industry faced challenges in 2024, with a reported decline in production of 8.42% from March to December [41][47] Investment Highlights - Zhujiang Beer is expected to benefit from its strong positioning in the Guangdong market, where the economic environment and consumer demographics favor beer consumption [16][75] - The company is actively expanding its product line with the introduction of the 980ml Zhujiang Original Draft, which emphasizes cultural branding and competitive pricing [18][75]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the significance of the "Touch and Go" feature in elevator media and the collaboration with Alipay, which is expected to enhance advertising efficiency and contribute to revenue growth [3][5] - The acquisition of Chengdu Xinchao Media Group is projected to increase the company's coverage and improve single-point efficiency, further solidifying its market leadership [9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Focus Media (分众传媒), is a leading player in elevator media advertising in China, with a total of 3.06 million advertising points as of March 2025, including 1.26 million elevator TV media and 1.8 million elevator poster media [3] Recent Developments - On June 24, 2025, Alipay announced the launch of the "Touch and Go" feature, allowing users to interact with advertisements in elevators to receive rewards, thereby linking online and offline advertising [3] - The company plans to acquire 100% of Chengdu Xinchao Media Group for an estimated valuation of 8.3 billion [2] Market Dynamics - The instant retail market is experiencing rapid growth, and the competition is intensifying. Focus Media is expected to benefit from increased advertising budgets from instant retail companies [5] - The report notes that the outdoor advertising market is showing a steady increase, with a 6% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 13.53 billion, 14.49 billion, and 15.54 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 7.1%, and 7.2% [9] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 5.56 billion, 5.98 billion, and 6.53 billion, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.7%, and 9.1% [9][10] Strategic Implications - The integration of Xinchao Media is anticipated to enhance the company's bargaining power and improve the efficiency of advertising points, benefiting both the company and its advertisers [8] - The "Touch and Go" feature is expected to reshape marketing value by providing detailed consumer data and enhancing user engagement for Alipay [8]