Core Conclusions - The report indicates that after a peak in turnover rate during a bull market, there is often a period of sideways consolidation, with fast bull markets experiencing shorter consolidation periods and slow bull markets experiencing longer ones [2][3][9] - It is noted that after consolidation in a bull market, there is a high probability of a change in market style, particularly between large-cap and small-cap stocks, although the transition between growth and value styles does not follow a clear pattern [2][3][8] Market Style Changes During Bull Markets - In the slow bull market period from July to October 2020, the market style shifted from small-cap growth to large-cap growth after a consolidation phase lasting three and a half months. Strong sectors before the consolidation included food and beverage and electric equipment, while electronics and computers weakened afterward [3][11] - Historical examples from the fast bull market of 2005-2007 show that prior to the consolidation periods in June-August 2006, January-February 2007, and June-July 2007, the market styles were small-cap growth, large-cap value, and small-cap value respectively, transitioning to large-cap growth, small-cap value, and large-cap value after the consolidations [3][14][15][16] Current Market Assessment - The report suggests that the current market is likely in the mid-stage of a bull market, with expectations of continued upward movement in the fourth quarter following a narrow consolidation in September. The market is becoming less sensitive to current earnings, and structural profit-making effects have been observed for nearly a year [17][18] - The report highlights that the recent increase in turnover rates and concentrated trading in certain sectors may lead to adjustments, but it does not foresee significant negative impacts, maintaining a bullish outlook for the market [18][21] Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends reallocating within the financial sector from banks to non-bank financials, as the latter is expected to show increased performance elasticity in the context of a rising bull market [22][23] - It also suggests focusing on sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, with an emphasis on the potential for cyclical stocks to perform well in the coming months due to expected policy support for demand stabilization [22][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - Recent developments include the issuance of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [3] - The first batch of 60Ah sulfide all-solid-state batteries is expected to be delivered by Funeng Technology to strategic partners by the end of this year, achieving an energy density of 400Wh/kg [3] Summary by Sections Demand Expectations - The new energy storage development goals for 2025-2027 aim for over 100 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in the next three years, supported by domestic policies [3] - In the first half of 2025, Chinese companies secured 199 overseas energy storage orders/cooperations, totaling over 160GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 220.28% [3] Price and Demand Trends - Battery prices are stabilizing, with expectations for simultaneous volume and price increases in 2025-2026 due to robust demand from energy storage and commercial vehicle electrification [3] - The mainstream price range for 314Ah energy storage cells is between 0.26 CNY/Wh and 0.32 CNY/Wh, with leading companies likely to eliminate rebates as part of a price increase strategy [3] Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is transitioning from pilot lines to mass production, with expectations for full-scale production to begin in 2027 [3] - Key technologies include roller pressing, isostatic pressing, and homogenization, with traditional equipment manufacturers having an advantage [3] - Lithium metal anodes are expected to maintain long-term competitiveness over silicon anodes, and soft-pack aluminum-plastic films are favored for packaging [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on lithium battery leaders such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda due to sustained demand from energy storage and commercial vehicles [4] - Material companies to watch include Tianci Materials, Molybdenum, Putailai, Shangtai Technology, and Fulin Precision [4] - For solid-state batteries, companies with high equipment certainty and advantages in production lines and materials include CATL, Xianlead Intelligent, Nakanor, Honggong Technology, Liyuanheng, Haichen Pharmaceutical, Huasheng Lithium Battery, Shanghai Washba, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, and Zhongyi Technology [4]

长空铸剑追梦空天，AI 算力驱动核聚变 [Table_Industry] ——信达军工 E 周刊第 197 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 国防军工 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 张润毅 军工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050003 邮 箱：zhangrunyi@cindasc.com 孙然 军工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 长空铸剑追梦空天，AI 算力驱动核聚变 ——信达军工 E 周刊第 197 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 21 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [一周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the utility sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in national industrial power generation and a 5.9% increase in natural gas production for August [1][6]. - The utility sector has shown a decline of 2.2% as of September 19, underperforming the broader market [5][13]. - The report suggests that the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment due to ongoing power supply-demand tensions and market reforms [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 19, the utility sector has decreased by 2.2%, with the power sector down by 2.52% and the gas sector up by 1.53% [5][15]. - The report notes that the average daily power generation exceeded 30 billion kWh for the first time in August, reaching 30.2 billion kWh [6]. Power Industry Data Tracking - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) increased by 21 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 699 CNY/ton [5][23]. - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 80,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 6.3 million tons [5][32]. - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir increased by 239.9% year-on-year, reaching 25,900 cubic meters per second [6][47]. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was 4,019 CNY/ton as of September 19, a year-on-year decrease of 21.92% [6][60]. - The EU's natural gas supply for week 36 of 2025 was 5.6 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [6][65]. - Domestic natural gas consumption in July 2025 was 36.17 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [6][60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International due to expected performance improvements [6]. - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the steel sector in investment allocation, particularly in light of expected policy-driven production limits in the fourth quarter [1][2] - Despite current supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [3][2] - The report suggests that the industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 90.4%, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 percentage points [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.41 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47 tons and a year-on-year increase of 176,400 tons [25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.437 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,500 tons [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.503 million tons as of September 19, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 107,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.32% [35] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products is 11.014 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 62,700 tons [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.184 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.14% [43] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,507.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 17.52 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 22 yuan/ton, a significant week-on-week increase of 257.14% [58] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,381 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [58] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 802 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.0 yuan/ton [72] - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,715 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton [72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The new energy storage action plan has been implemented, with expectations for demand to improve significantly. By 2027, the new energy storage capacity is projected to exceed 180 million kilowatts, driving direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [3][15][21]. - The new energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with installed capacity reaching 78.3 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 126.9%. This marks the first time that the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has surpassed that of pumped storage [21][24]. - The shift from "policy-driven" to "market-driven" energy storage is underway, with the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements for new energy projects, which is expected to foster long-term market development [16][17]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 19, the environmental sector has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.42% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][8]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Transport released standards for hydrogen transportation, enhancing safety and promoting the development of the hydrogen transport sector [37]. - A significant milestone was achieved with the delivery of a solid-state hydrogen emergency power supply, marking progress in solid hydrogen storage technology [38]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in energy conservation, environmental protection, and resource recycling sectors. It recommends focusing on companies like Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, while also suggesting attention to companies such as Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co [55].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut in the US and expected demand improvement could catalyze growth in sectors such as smart glasses and new tobacco products [2][3] - The report emphasizes the potential for export recovery due to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit companies with strong overseas production capabilities [2][4] - The smart glasses sector is seeing product improvements and optimization of industry pain points, which may lead to high growth in sales [3][4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Supply disruptions in pulp continue, with UPM extending maintenance at its Kaukas pulp mill until October 11, 2025, impacting production [2] - Price adjustments for various types of pulp are noted, with expectations of price increases from paper companies in Q4 [2] Exports - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and home consumption [2] - Companies with robust overseas production are anticipated to show greater resilience and improved export orders [2][4] New Tobacco - Increased competition in Japan's heated tobacco market is noted, with major players reducing prices to enhance market share [2][3] - The report anticipates growth in sales of new tobacco products, particularly in Europe and North America [3] Smart Glasses - Meta's launch of new AI smart glasses with improved features is expected to enhance market appeal and sales [3] - The report suggests that the industry may see high growth in sales due to these advancements [3] Packaging - The report discusses the strong overseas expansion of packaging leaders, with expectations of increased profitability [2] - Companies are focusing on high-margin clients and expanding their overseas production capabilities [2] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes a positive outlook for traditional jewelry brands despite challenges from rising gold prices [2] - Companies are expected to adapt their strategies to maintain sales growth [2] Two-Wheel Vehicles - The electric three-wheeler market is seen as having growth potential, with new product launches from leading companies [2] - The report highlights strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing performance in the electric motorcycle segment [2] E-commerce - The report indicates that cross-border e-commerce sellers are expected to maintain stable performance, with a focus on optimizing operations [2] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to drive sales growth [4] Pet Products - The pet industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, with new high-end products being introduced [2] - Companies are focusing on brand development to enhance market presence [4] IP Retail - The report highlights the strong performance of brands like Pop Mart in the global market, with plans for further expansion [2] - New product launches are expected to drive sales during the upcoming holiday season [4] Maternal and Child Products - Recent government policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to benefit the maternal and child retail sector [5] - Leading companies are positioned to capitalize on these policy changes [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The report highlights that coal prices have shown signs of stabilization, and there is an expectation for price increases due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [5][13] - The report emphasizes the continued investment logic of coal capacity shortages, with a short-term balance and a long-term gap in supply [13][14] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of September 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1610 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][33] - International thermal coal prices have also seen fluctuations, with Newcastle thermal coal at 69.6 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.4 USD/ton [4][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 4.10 thousand tons/day (+1.22%) [5][13] - The report notes that the supply side is still constrained by policies, and the demand is expected to rise as winter heating needs begin [5][13] Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.59%, outperforming the broader market [16] - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their stable operations and strong performance [14][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the analysis of growth and profitability metrics. Core Insights - The company has a diversified customer structure with approximately 40% of revenue from consumer electronics, 30% from home appliances, 10% from the automotive and new energy vehicle supply chain, and 10% from liquor, among others. This strategic focus on high-margin clients enhances its profitability compared to peers [1]. - The company has experienced significant growth in overseas sales, with a 40.4% year-on-year increase, while domestic revenue declined by 6.5%. The gross margin for overseas sales stands at 33.6%, indicating a more favorable competitive landscape abroad [2]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with five factories in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico, which is expected to enhance its market share and maintain high growth rates in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Customer Structure - The company’s customer base is well-diversified, with a focus on high-margin sectors, leading to superior profitability compared to industry peers [1]. Financial Performance - Domestic revenue for H1 2025 was 1.23 billion (down 6.5% YoY), while overseas revenue reached 652 million (up 40.4% YoY). The gross margin for domestic sales was 20.8%, while for overseas it was 33.6% [2]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 370 million, 444 million, and 533 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.4X, 16.2X, and 13.5X [2]. Production Capacity - The company has established a strong overseas production presence, with plans for further expansion, particularly in Mexico, which is expected to come online soon. This strategic positioning is anticipated to enhance overall profitability and market share [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [146] Core Viewpoints - The EVA supply remains tight, leading to continued price and margin increases [2] - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 19, 2025, was $67.55 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.62% [2][3] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have seen slight increases, with domestic refined oil price margins narrowing and overseas margins widening [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Domestic key refining project price margin was 2380.87 CNY/ton, a decrease of 15.72 CNY/ton (-0.66%) week-on-week, while the international margin was 1176.66 CNY/ton, down 16.22 CNY/ton (-1.36%) [2][3] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices on September 19, 2025, were $66.68 and $62.68 per barrel, respectively, showing slight declines from the previous week [16] - Domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene average prices were 6936.14 CNY/ton, 8019.29 CNY/ton, and 5976.50 CNY/ton, respectively, with corresponding price margins against crude oil [16] Chemical Sector - EVA prices continued to rise, with an average price of 11842.86 CNY/ton, and the EVA-crude oil price margin increased to 8338.71 CNY/ton [56] - Polypropylene prices showed a downward trend due to weak demand, with average prices for various types of polypropylene reported [72] - MMA prices increased significantly due to supply-side factors and pre-holiday stocking demand, with an average price of 9882.14 CNY/ton [72] Polyester & Nylon Sector - PX prices showed a slight decline, with the current average price at 5926.85 CNY/ton, and the PX-crude oil price margin at 2423.52 CNY/ton [87] - PTA prices decreased, with the average price at 4592.86 CNY/ton and the industry average profit margin remaining negative [96] - The average price for polyester filament yarns decreased due to weak demand, with average prices reported for different types of yarns [104]