Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the new VAT regulations have disrupted market expectations. Interest - rate bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with policy - bank bonds performing weaker than treasury bonds. Credit spreads have compressed across the board. The spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds have mostly declined, while the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds have increased and those of urban investment bonds have remained largely stable [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. New VAT Regulations Disrupt Interest Rates, Credit Spreads Compress Across the Board - The new VAT regulations have disturbed market expectations. Interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, and policy - bank bonds underperformed treasury bonds. The 10Y policy - bank bond yield rose 2BP, while the 1Y and 7Y yields of China Development Bank bonds remained flat, and the 3Y and 5Y yields declined 1BP respectively. Ordinary credit bonds were not affected by the new regulations, performing stronger than interest - rate bonds, with most yields declining, and high - grade varieties performing slightly better. Credit spreads compressed across the board [2][5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 2 - 3BP - The spreads of externally rated AAA, AA +, and AA urban investment platforms declined by 2BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week. By administrative level, the spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms generally declined by 3BP [2][9]. 3. Industrial Bond Spreads Mostly Decline, Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real - Estate Bonds Compress Significantly - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds declined by 1 - 3BP, those of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds declined by 19BP, and those of private real - estate bonds declined by 249BP. The spreads of AAA and AA + coal bonds declined by 2BP and 3BP respectively, and those of AA coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of all grades of steel bonds declined by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads of AAA and AA + chemical bonds declined by 1BP and 3BP respectively [2][18]. 4. Yields of Secondary Perpetual Bonds Decline Across the Board, Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties Perform Slightly Better - This week, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board, with medium - and low - grade varieties performing slightly better, and the spread reduction of high - grade 3 - 5 year varieties being smaller. The 1Y yields of all grades of secondary perpetual bonds declined by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads compressed similarly. The 3Y yields of AAA - secondary perpetual bonds declined by 2 - 3BP, with spreads compressing by 1 - 2BP; the yields of AA + and AA grades declined by 4 - 5BP, with spreads compressing by 3 - 4BP. The 5Y yields of AA + and above grades declined by 1 - 2BP, with spreads compressing by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA grades declined by 4 - 6BP, with spreads compressing by 3 - 4BP [2][24]. 5. Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increase, Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds Remain Largely Stable - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.25BP to 7.41BP, at the 7.41% percentile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 4.17BP to 11.82BP, at the 23.04% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.56BP to 5.16BP, at the 2.79% percentile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 0.42BP to 10.91BP, at the 13.94% percentile [2][26]. 6. Explanation of Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical percentiles starting from the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical percentiles starting from the beginning of 2015 [28][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the public utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The electricity sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of supply-demand tensions. The continuous advancement of electricity market reforms is likely to lead to a stable but slight increase in electricity prices. The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism will clarify the foundational role of coal power [4] - The natural gas sector is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in domestic consumption and the decline in upstream gas prices, with city gas businesses expected to achieve stable margins and high sales growth [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 8, the public utility sector rose by 1.6%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. The electricity sector increased by 1.41%, while the gas sector rose by 3.60% [3][10] - Key companies in the electricity sector saw significant stock performance variations, with Shanghai Electric rising by 11.35% and Guodian Power declining by 2.89% [11][13] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) increased by 23 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 678 CNY/ton as of August 8 [3][19] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port increased by 250,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 5.47 million tons [28] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces rose by 6.42% week-on-week, reaching 4.09 million tons [28] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - As of August 8, the LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,220 CNY/ton, down 14.38% year-on-year [52] - The EU's natural gas supply for week 29 of 2025 was 6.08 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [60] - Domestic natural gas consumption in June 2025 was 35.05 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [4] Key Industry News - The State Grid's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.233 billion kilowatts due to extreme weather conditions [4] - In July, China's natural gas imports totaled 10.632 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [4] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, focus on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [4] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended, such as Xin'ao Group and Guanghui Energy [4]

- The report discusses the construction and performance of various quantitative models and factors related to stock index futures and options markets[2][4][6] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Stock Index Futures Basis Adjustment Model** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to adjust the basis of stock index futures by considering the impact of dividends during the contract period[9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The basis is defined as the difference between the futures contract closing price and the underlying index closing price - The formula for the expected dividend-adjusted basis is: $ \text{Expected Dividend-Adjusted Basis} = \text{Actual Basis} + \text{Expected Dividends during the Contract Period} $ - The annualized basis is calculated as: $ \text{Annualized Basis} = (\text{Actual Basis} + \text{Expected Dividend Points}) / \text{Index Price} \times 360 / \text{Remaining Days of the Contract} $[21] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively adjusts the basis by accounting for the impact of dividends, providing a more accurate measure of the futures contract's value[21] 2. **Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy** - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy aims to hedge the spot index by continuously holding futures contracts and adjusting positions based on the contract's expiration[44] - **Model Construction Process**: - The strategy involves holding the total return index of the corresponding underlying index on the spot side - On the futures side, 70% of the funds are used for the spot side, and the same nominal principal amount is used for short hedging with stock index futures contracts - The positions are adjusted continuously by holding the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days, then rolling over to the next contract[45] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy provides a systematic approach to hedging, reducing the impact of market fluctuations on the portfolio[45] 3. **Model Name: Minimum Discount Strategy** - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - The strategy involves holding the total return index of the corresponding underlying index on the spot side - On the futures side, 70% of the funds are used for the spot side, and the same nominal principal amount is used for short hedging with stock index futures contracts - The positions are adjusted by selecting the futures contract with the smallest annualized basis discount and holding it for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days[46] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy aims to optimize the hedging performance by selecting contracts with the least discount, potentially improving returns[46] Model Backtesting Results 1. **IC Hedging Strategy** - Annualized Return: -2.87% (Monthly Continuous Hedging), -1.87% (Quarterly Continuous Hedging), -1.12% (Minimum Discount Strategy), 0.18% (Index Performance) - Volatility: 3.83%, 4.72%, 4.61%, 20.97% - Maximum Drawdown: -8.65%, -8.34%, -7.97%, -31.46% - Net Value: 0.9155, 0.9443, 0.9665, 1.0054 - Annual Turnover: 12, 4, 17.15 - 2025 YTD Return: -3.90%, -0.97%, -1.22%, 14.02%[48] 2. **IF Hedging Strategy** - Annualized Return: 0.55% (Monthly Continuous Hedging), 0.78% (Quarterly Continuous Hedging), 1.36% (Minimum Discount Strategy), -1.05% (Index Performance) - Volatility: 2.97%, 3.32%, 3.10%, 17.08% - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95%, -4.03%, -4.06%, -25.59% - Net Value: 1.0169, 1.0239, 1.0417, 0.9686 - Annual Turnover: 12, 4, 15.17 - 2025 YTD Return: -0.65%, 0.40%, 0.80%, 7.45%[51] 3. **IH Hedging Strategy** - Annualized Return: 1.11% (Monthly Continuous Hedging), 2.04% (Quarterly Continuous Hedging), 1.77% (Minimum Discount Strategy), -0.69% (Index Performance) - Volatility: 3.08%, 3.50%, 3.10%, 16.29% - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22%, -3.76%, -3.91%, -22.96% - Net Value: 1.0340, 1.0630, 1.0548, 0.9792 - Annual Turnover: 12, 4, 15.83 - 2025 YTD Return: 0.32%, 1.36%, 1.36%, 6.85%[54] 4. **IM Hedging Strategy** - Annualized Return: -6.07% (Monthly Continuous Hedging), -4.44% (Quarterly Continuous Hedging), -3.88% (Minimum Discount Strategy), -0.49% (Index Performance) - Volatility: 4.72%, 5.76%, 5.56%, 25.72% - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01%, -12.63%, -11.11%, -41.60% - Net Value: 0.8346, 0.8629, 0.8725, 0.9185 - Annual Turnover: 12, 4, 15.85 - 2025 YTD Return: -9.60%, -4.77%, -4.37%, 17.96%[59] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Cinda-VIX** - **Factor Construction Idea**: The Cinda-VIX index reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset based on option prices[61] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The index is constructed by adjusting the methodology used in international markets to suit the Chinese market - It captures the implied volatility of options on major indices over different time horizons[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Cinda-VIX index provides valuable insights into market sentiment and expected volatility, aiding in risk management and investment decisions[61] 2. **Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW** - **Factor Construction Idea**: The Cinda-SKEW index measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, indicating market expectations of tail risk[67] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The index captures the skewness in implied volatility by analyzing the differences in implied volatility for options with different strike prices - A higher SKEW index indicates greater concern about potential market downturns[67] - **Factor Evaluation**: The Cinda-SKEW index is a useful tool for assessing market sentiment regarding tail risks and potential extreme events[67] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Cinda-VIX** - 30-day VIX values as of August 8, 2025: 18.48 (SSE 50), 18.32 (CSI 300), 23.46 (CSI 500), 23.00 (CSI 1000)[61] 2. **Cinda-SKEW** - SKEW values as of August 8, 2025: 102.35 (SSE 50), 109.58 (CSI 300), 105.49 (CSI 500), 114.07 (CSI 1000)[68]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - Duolingo's Q2 2025 results exceeded expectations with revenue of $252 million, surpassing the guidance of $243.5 to $246.5 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.2%, exceeding the guidance of 24.5% to 25.5% [3] - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew by 24% year-over-year to 128 million, while Daily Active Users (DAUs) increased by 40% to 48 million, indicating strong user engagement [3] - The paid user base reached 10.9 million, a 36% increase year-over-year, with a paid penetration rate of 9%, up 0.4 percentage points year-over-year [3] - Revenue growth was robust at 41% year-over-year, with subscription revenue increasing by 46.4% [3] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $1.011 to $1.019 billion, up from the previous guidance of $987 to $996 million [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for non-linear growth driven by AI applications in the education sector, recommending a focus on companies leading in educational AI agent development [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Duolingo achieved revenue of $252 million in Q2 2025, exceeding guidance [3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 31.2%, surpassing previous expectations [3] User Engagement - MAUs reached 128 million, with a year-over-year growth of 24% [3] - DAUs increased to 48 million, reflecting a 40% year-over-year growth [3] - User stickiness improved, with DAUs/MAUs ratio at 37.2%, up 4.3 percentage points year-over-year [3] Paid User Metrics - Paid users grew to 10.9 million, a 36% increase year-over-year [3] - Paid penetration rate reached 9%, with a slight increase from the previous year [3] Future Outlook - Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $1.011 to $1.019 billion [3] - The report suggests focusing on companies at the forefront of educational AI development [3]

Group 1: Export Trends - July exports exceeded expectations due to underestimated "export rush" effects, with a significant low base from last year contributing to this growth[5] - The global manufacturing PMI shifted from expansion to contraction in July, indicating weaker global manufacturing demand, which contradicts the export growth logic[5] - China's exports to non-US regions showed steady growth, with a cumulative growth rate of 9.2% as of July, outperforming the -12.4% decline in exports to the US[16] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "export rush" effect is expected to contribute to exports from August to November, but its impact is anticipated to weaken over time[26] - The contribution of non-major countries to export growth was greater than that of major countries, with non-major regions increasing their contribution by 1.1 percentage points[22] - Exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries have outperformed total exports, with a cumulative growth rate improvement of 0.8 percentage points[22] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential expiration of the 24% tariff on China in Q4 could create a weak export window, highlighting the importance of non-US markets for long-term support[27] - Risks include the possibility of insufficient growth policies and lower-than-expected global economic conditions[29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the growth metrics and strategic initiatives discussed. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable operational trends with high growth in its CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business, achieving a revenue of 22.91 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [2] - The new molecular business layout is expected to create new growth points, with significant investments in peptide, conjugate, and small nucleic acid drug platforms [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 28.71 billion yuan, a 3.86% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.70% growth [1] - The operating cash flow net amount reached 8.45 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase of 164.50% [1] CDMO Business - The CDMO segment continues to thrive, with a revenue of 22.91 billion yuan in H1 2025, maintaining a gross margin of 41.02% [2] - The project pipeline has expanded significantly, with 1,214 projects under contract, including 1,086 in clinical phases I and II, and 90 in phase III [2] API Business - The API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) business saw a decline in revenue to 5.23 billion yuan, down 28.48% year-on-year, attributed to reduced demand for respiratory disease-related products [3] New Molecular Business - The company is actively expanding its new molecular business, having onboarded over 20 new clients in H1 2025, with a notable increase in overseas orders [4] - The global market for TEDIS (including peptides and oligonucleotides) CRDMO is projected to grow from 5.5 billion USD in 2023 to 37.3 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 23.8% [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 55.09 billion yuan, 61.77 billion yuan, and 68.42 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 9.28 billion yuan, 10.66 billion yuan, and 12.07 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 579 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.69%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 189 million yuan, which is a year-over-year increase of 31.41% [1][3]. - The profit growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating enhanced profitability with a net profit margin of 32.63%, an increase of 6.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3]. - The company is a leader in tumor drug companion diagnostics, with a comprehensive product system covering various technology platforms [3]. - The internationalization process is ongoing, with the company generating 137 million yuan in international sales in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.36% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 171 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.59% [1]. - The revenue from testing reagents was 483 million yuan, showing a year-over-year growth of 7.93%, while the revenue from testing services was 33 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 0.92% [3]. - The company expects revenues of 1.255 billion yuan, 1.499 billion yuan, and 1.771 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 13.1%, 19.5%, and 18.2% [3][4]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 355 million yuan, 439 million yuan, and 535 million yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 39.2%, 23.6%, and 22.0% [4]. Business Segmentation - The domestic sales for the first half of 2025 reached 442 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.11% despite industry pressures [3]. - The company has a dedicated international business team of over 70 people, covering more than 60 countries and regions, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its global footprint [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, Chiplet Technology Co., Ltd. (芯原股份), is expected to achieve approximately 584 million yuan in revenue for Q2 2025, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 49.90% and a significant improvement in profitability [2] - The company's IP licensing revenue reached 187 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 99.63% [5] - The company has a record high backlog of orders at 3.025 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.17%, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [5] - The company has been investing heavily in R&D, particularly in Chiplet technology, which is expected to support its growth in emerging markets [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 2.338 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 3.016 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 29.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to improve from a loss of 296 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 237 million yuan by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [6] Order Backlog and Future Growth - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company’s backlog of orders reached a historical high, with approximately 81% of these orders expected to convert within a year, providing a solid foundation for future revenue growth [5] R&D Investment - The company has been focusing on R&D investments, with a decreasing proportion of R&D expenses relative to revenue, as it aims to allocate more resources to customer projects [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.016 billion yuan, 4.321 billion yuan, and 5.627 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be -281 million yuan, 25 million yuan, and 237 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall performance and growth indicators suggest a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.432 billion yuan (up 24.3% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 203 million yuan (up 42.6% year-on-year) [1]. - The domestic market showed strong performance, with domestic revenue of 857 million yuan (up 38.9% year-on-year), accounting for approximately 35% of total revenue [2]. - The overseas market also demonstrated growth, with overseas revenue of 1.575 billion yuan (up 17.6% year-on-year) and an increase in gross margin to 28.0% [3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 31.4% (up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year), indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - The domestic brand "Wang Pi" ranked highly in the pet snack sector, with a sales index increase of 99% year-on-year [2]. - The domestic gross margin was reported at 37.7%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Overseas Performance - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with new factories in the U.S. and Canada expected to mitigate tariff impacts [3]. - The establishment of a factory in Mexico represents a strategic move to enhance the global supply chain [3]. Profitability and Operational Efficiency - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 235 million yuan, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 468 million yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 37.4x [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in dry bulk throughput and a positive year-on-year change in crude oil throughput for June [1][3] - Overall cargo throughput performance remains stable, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the shipping and port sector [6] Summary by Sections Overview: National Import and Export Volume and Cargo Throughput - In the first half of 2025, the national import and export total reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The import total was 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%, while the export total was 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2% [5][13] - Coastal major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 5.703 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5][30] Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput - As of August 1, 2025, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1232.29 points, down 43.49% year-on-year [5][34] - Container throughput for the first half of 2025 reached 15.227 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [5][40] Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 965 points on August 4, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.66% [6][42] - Crude oil imports for the first half of 2025 totaled 279 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6][50] Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 1970 points on August 4, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.47% [6][57] - Iron ore throughput for the first half of 2025 was 686 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.56% [6][63] Monthly Throughput of Key Port Listed Companies - In June 2025, Shanghai Port Group's cargo throughput was 0.52 billion tons, down 1.57% year-on-year, while Ningbo Port's cargo throughput was 1.01 billion tons, up 11.63% year-on-year [6][75]