Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index - option products on February 6, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, and their respective changes compared to the previous period [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Option Trading Volume - On February 6, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 799,200 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,025,300 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 2,190,000 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 38,900 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,594,900 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 35,000 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 98,300 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 334,300 contracts [1] 3.2 Option PCR - SSE 50 ETF options: The trading - volume PCR was 0.95, with a month - on - month increase of 0.18; the open - interest PCR was 0.74, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading - volume PCR was 1.04, with a month - on - month increase of 0.07; the open - interest PCR was 0.80, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading - volume PCR was 1.06, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.36; the open - interest PCR was 1.14, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The trading - volume PCR was 1.43, with a month - on - month increase of 0.36; the open - interest PCR was 1.16, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 - ChiNext ETF options: The trading - volume PCR was 1.08, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.06; the open - interest PCR was 1.01, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 - SSE 50 index options: The trading - volume PCR was 0.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the open - interest PCR was 0.60, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 - CSI 300 index options: The trading - volume PCR was 0.72, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the open - interest PCR was 0.63, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 - CSI 1000 index options: The trading - volume PCR was 0.83, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.13; the open - interest PCR was 0.84, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 [2] 3.3 Option VIX - SSE 50 ETF options: The VIX was 17.53%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26% - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 18.09%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17% - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 27.61%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64% - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The VIX was 22.37%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% - ChiNext ETF options: The VIX was 27.75%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.06% - SSE 50 index options: The VIX was 18.43%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.08% - CSI 300 index options: The VIX was 19.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17% - CSI 1000 index options: The VIX was 27.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.72% [3]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-09 市场流动性概况 2026-02-06，股指板块成交9254.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.21%；持仓金额16736.61亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.38%；成交持仓比为54.57%。 国债板块成交4263.23亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.29%；持仓金额9155.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.90%；成交持 仓比为46.67%。 基本金属板块成交8776.26亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.64%；持仓金额6380.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.07%；成 交持仓比为146.35%。 贵金属板块成交14631.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-28.56%；持仓金额4877.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.50%；成 交持仓比为378.51%。 能源化工板块成交5435.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.90%；持仓金额4862.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.27%；成 交持仓比为99.16%。 农产品板块成交2096.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.97%；持仓金额6117.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.09%；成交 持仓比为32.33%。 黑色建材板块成交1753 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

期货研究报告|黑色专题 2026-02-06 双焦 2601 合约交割总结报告 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 xingyawen@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03054449 投资咨询号：Z0016137 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguolaing@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 邢亚文 焦煤 2601 合约交割规模创出历史最高水平，究其原因在于一方面是临近交割月盘面大 幅下跌，给予卖方较好的参与机会；另一方面是现货销售不佳，导致卖方参与交割意 愿较强。焦炭 2601 合约交割规模有限，主要原因在于月差结构有利于卖方转抛远月， 导致实际交割量相对不足。考虑到后期基本面和宏观预期并未出现明显转弱趋势，因 此焦煤和焦炭远月交割风险相对有限。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 本次焦煤交割量达到 41.4 万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on February 5, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, offering a detailed overview of the index option market [1][2][3] Summaries by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 5, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 834,900 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 977,000 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,836,800 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 74,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,568,600 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 37,300 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 103,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 313,100 contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.76, with a month - on - month change of +0.03; the position PCR was 0.76, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02. Similar data for other options are also provided, showing different changes in turnover PCR and position PCR [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 17.26%, with a month - on - month change of +0.01%. The VIX of other options also had corresponding changes, such as CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) at 26.96% with a +1.39% change [3]

农产品日报 | 2026-02-06 临近小年备货，南北价差扩大 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11305元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.18%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.59元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+285，较前交易日变动+210；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.84元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH03+535，较前交易日变动+220；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+945，较前交易日变动+250。 据农业农村部监测，2月5日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.83，比昨天下降0.13个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为132.71，比昨天下降0.16个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.48元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；牛肉66.41 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉64.47元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋8.55元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；白条鸡17.23 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%。 市场分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, indicating that the short - term market for PX/PTA/PF/PR is highly volatile due to external funds [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the downstream terminals are gradually on holiday. The cost side fluctuates around the Iran situation. The PX fundamentals have no obvious changes in the short - term, but the medium - term outlook is good. The PTA near - term supply and demand tend to accumulate, but the long - term processing fee is expected to improve. The polyester load is accelerating its decline, and the demand before the Spring Festival is weak. The polyester bottle - chip processing fee rebounds [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, including TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit, reflecting the profit and spread situation of upstream products [15][19]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures such as the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit, which are related to international spreads and import - export profitability [21][23]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating rates in China and Asia, reflecting the upstream production status [24][27][29]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF, reflecting the inventory situation [35][37][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the inventory days of filament factories, reflecting the downstream production and inventory status [43][45][57]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, and the price difference between raw and recycled materials, providing detailed information on PF [65][66][69]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, and the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, as well as the inter - month spreads of bottle chips, presenting detailed PR fundamentals [81][83][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton supply-demand pattern in the 25/26 season is generally loose, and the domestic cotton production has increased significantly. Although there is a high consumption expectation due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, the overall upward drive is insufficient. The short-term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has entered a definite surplus. Although the short-term trade flow is in a tight balance, the medium and long-term surplus pattern will suppress the sugar price. However, the long - term sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The short and medium - term domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the demand for paper pulp will have marginal incremental growth. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level [7][8] Summary by Related Content Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract yesterday was 14,610 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,743 yuan/ton, a change of +5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,012 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton [1] - In December, Turkey's cotton imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 2025/26 season, Turkey's cumulative cotton imports were 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Brazilian cotton was the main import source, accounting for 38%, followed by US cotton at 25% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is loose, US cotton exports have weakened again, and terminal demand is weak. The short - term ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, US cotton is at a low - valuation range with limited further decline space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 season has seen a significant increase in cotton production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions are good. Textile enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there is a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited domestic demand support and the pressure of internal - external price differences [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5,224 yuan/ton, a change of +14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,300 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,150 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, the same as the same period last season. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar - production rate of 9.27% [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in a definite surplus. Although the short - term trade flow is in a tight - balance pattern, it will tend to be loose in the short and medium - term, suppressing the sugar - price rebound space. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic due to factors such as the expected decline in Brazil's sugar - production ratio and potential impacts of El Nino on India's precipitation [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the current supply is seasonally growing. The pressure of sugar imports in the fourth quarter is high, but the imports are expected to return to a low level in the off - season. The syrup volume in December has also decreased significantly after the adjustment of the control scope [4] Strategy - Neutral. In the short and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and the focus is on the domestic import - related policy changes in 2026 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5,254 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-1.31%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,335 yuan/ton, a change of -40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp changed from stable to falling. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The downstream's pulp - purchasing mentality was rational, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. The prices of some imported pulp grades in various regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, and the domestic import pressure may be relieved to some extent [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity expansion of finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry's profits were squeezed. Downstream paper mills' raw - material purchasing willingness was low, and domestic port inventories were at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and white cardboard and household paper will be the main growth points of demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement in pulp fundamentals is limited, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level [8]

宏观日报 | 2026-02-06 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 上游价格回落，地产下游冷淡 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）工信部等八部门印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030年）》，到2030年，中药工业全产 业链协同发展体系初步形成，重点中药原料持续稳定供应能力进一步增强，数智化、绿色化水平明显提升，一批 关键技术取得突破，产业协同创新水平显著提高。发展质量明显提高，中药工业规模效益稳步提升，产业集约化 程度明显提高，质量管理水平显著提升，培育一批引领带动能力突出的中药工业领航企业，培育60个高标准中药 原料生产基地。 服务行业：1）国家网信办等11部门联合印发《关于提升境外人员入境数字化服务便利性的实施意见》（以下简称 《实施意见》），旨在打通境外人员入境数字化服务堵点、卡点，建立互联互通、包容普惠、标准互认的数字化服 务体系，打造更加国际化、便利化的数字化服务环境，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，加快构建新发展格局。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）能源：国际油价和天然气小幅回调。2）农业 ...