农产品日报 | 2025-12-11 出栏压力延续，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11310元/吨，较前交易日变动-140.00元/吨，幅度-1.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.27元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03-40，较前交易日变动+150；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.44元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差LH03+130，较前交易日变动+180；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.83元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.17元/公斤，现货基差LH03+520，较前交易日变动+310。 据农业农村部监测，12月10日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.46，比昨天上升0.25个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.21，比昨天上升0.29个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.88元/公斤，比昨天上升1.8%；牛肉66.12 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；羊肉62.73元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋7.50元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%；白条鸡18.00 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%。 市 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-11 市场需求逐步好转，12月下半月运价逐步修正 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1540/2420，WEEK52周报价1480/2300；HPL -SPOT12 月下半月价格介于2535-2735.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特 丹12月下半月船司价格1618/2806; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1550/2600. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船期价格1585/2745,1月上半月船期报价2485/4545；EMC 12月上半 月价格1855/2810，12月下半月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价格 介于2530-2630之间. 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在2025年2月双子座合作启动时，由于红海持续的动荡，A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene has a large real - time arrival pressure, with port inventory accelerating accumulation. The overseas gasoline shortage has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 is weak, and downstream开工 is further decreasing in the off - season. Styrene maintains low - load maintenance, CPL开工 drops to the lowest level of the year, phenol开工 rebounds, and aniline and adipic acid开工 fluctuate within a range [3]. - For styrene, port inventory further declines, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, port inventory continues to decrease, and downstream提货 is acceptable. The downstream开工 shows differentiation. EPS开工 rebounds slightly in the off - season but still has inventory pressure; ABS开工 decreases due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS开工 continues to rise at the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure eases [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+12), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 150 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 156 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton). The pure benzene US - South Korea price difference is 195.0 US dollars/ton (+14.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (- 121 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons). Pure benzene开工 rate data is not provided, and styrene开工 rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 191 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 9 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+89 yuan/ton). EPS开工 rate is 56.36% (+1.61%), PS开工 rate is 59.00% (+1.40%), and ABS开工 rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (+90), phenol - ketone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and adipic acid production profit is - 1,129 yuan/ton (+59). Caprolactam开工 rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), phenol开工 rate is 82.00% (+1.00%), aniline开工 rate is 77.23% (+0.04%), and adipic acid开工 rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

化工日报 | 2025-12-11 EG主港延续累库,检修有所增多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3682元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.24%），EG华东市场现货价3668 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.60%），EG华东现货基差-11元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1155 元/吨（环比-17元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到港 偏 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-11 厂内库存继续去化 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-10，尿素主力收盘1645元/吨（+2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：55 元/吨（+8）；河南基差：45元/吨（+8）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（+10），出口利润885 元/吨（+8）。 供应端：截至2025-12-10，企业产能利用率81.82%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为123.42 万吨（-5.63），港口样本 库存量为10.50 万吨（+0.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-10，复合肥产能利用率40.53%（+3.47%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.66%（+0.86%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.94日（-0.41）。 尿素部分地区低价成交好转，持续性待观察。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企业检修逐步恢复， 目前2025年新增产能全部投产，尿素供应量不减。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复合肥东北、湖北开工 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-11 港口库存再度回落，基差走强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润575元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1980元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差527元/吨（+13），内蒙南线1940元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2228元/吨（+6），鲁 南基差375元/吨（+19）；河南2110元/吨（+0），河南基差257元/吨（+13）；河北2135元/吨（+10），河北基差342元/ 吨（+23）。隆众内地工厂库存352830吨（-8490），西北工厂库存199000吨（-6000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单207471 吨（-32244），西北工厂待发订单101600吨（-26900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2078元/吨（+3），太仓基差25元/吨（+16），CFR中国242美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-28元/ 吨（-3），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2060元/吨（-5），广东基差7元/吨（+8）。隆众港口总库存1234370吨（-115060）， 江苏港口库存635100吨（-68200），浙江港口 ...

现货价格：华东电石法报价4350元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4350元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+25）；电石利润0元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1019元/吨（-139）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-472元/吨（-8）；PVC出口利润-1.3美元/吨（+0.8）。 烧碱山东江苏库存去化 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4328元/吨（-39）；华东基差22元/吨（+9）;华南基差22元/吨（+9）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-12-11 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.6万吨（+0.3）；PVC社会库存52.9万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.8万吨（+2.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2155元/吨（-11）；山东32%液碱基差64元/吨（+11）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价710元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1180元 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-11 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15215元/吨，较前一日变动+230元/吨；NR主力合约12270元/吨，较前一日变动+190 元/吨；BR主力合约10605元/吨，较前一日变动+155元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14500元/吨，较前 一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1840美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1735美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10500元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年11月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和 新能源），环比今年10月下降约6%，比上年同期的6.85万辆大幅增长约46%。 据隆众资讯了解，进入12月份全钢胎交投表现平淡，受季节性淡季影响，市场需求进一步转弱，市场货源相对充 足情况下， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 买卖双方拉锯 铅价仍呈现震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-10，LME铅现货升水为-49.76美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元 /吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-125元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10250元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-10，沪铅主力合约开于17125元/吨，收于17115元/吨，较前一交易日变化-55元/吨，全天交易日 成交36449手，较前一交易日变化701手，全天交易日持仓39315手，手较前一交易日变化-1305手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17150元/吨，最低点达到170 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Option: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the interest - rate meeting and the delivery date, copper prices may decline slightly. Currently, downstream consumption is relatively poor, and there is significant wait - and - see sentiment in the industry chain. Therefore, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 10, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 91,400 yuan/ton and closed at 91,850 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase from the previous trading day's closing price. The night - session main contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 91,770 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price range of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was a discount of 40 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, a 65 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 91,510 to 91,890 yuan/ton. Due to approaching the 2512 contract delivery, concentrated shipments by holders led to a rapid decline in spot premiums. It is expected that spot trading will continue to be under pressure, and premiums may remain slightly discounted [2] Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%. It is the third rate cut this year. The Fed will start a monthly purchase program of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds from December 12. Fed Chairman Powell said inflation is still high, but non - tariff - driven core inflation has improved significantly. President Trump criticized the Fed for the insufficient rate - cut amplitude [3] Mining End - On December 10, Aterian signed a binding joint - venture agreement with Lithosquare. They will launch an AI - driven exploration plan in 8 copper projects. Lithosquare will invest €1.4 million. If exploration is successful, it can increase its stake [4] Smelting and Import - As of December 8, the number of resource recycling enterprises using "reverse invoicing" reached 14,800, and the "reverse invoicing" amount this year is nearly 900 billion yuan. The resource recycling system in China is becoming more complete. From January to October 2025, the domestic recycling of scrapped cars increased by over 50% year - on - year, and the output of recycled resources from large - scale equipment was close to the 2024 annual output [5] Consumption - In November 2025, the domestic copper tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase. The increase in production was due to more effective production days and market demand from e - commerce promotions and project deliveries [6][7] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,125 tons to 164,975 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 600 tons to 28,931 tons. On December 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, a change of 1,400 tons from the previous week [7] Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 12 - 10 | 2025 - 12 - 04 | 2025 - 11 - 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (premium/discount) - SMM: 1 copper | 30 | 95 | 140 | 55 | | Premium copper | 80 | 160 | 210 | 115 | | Flat - water copper | - 10 | 45 | 85 | 10 | | Wet - process copper | - 50 | - 15 | 0 | - 50 | | Yangshan premium | 48 | 46 | 48 | 43 | | LME (0 - 3) | 0 | 8 | 69 | - 18 | | Inventory - LME | 164,975 | 165,675 | 162,150 | 136,275 | | Inventory - SHFE | 88,905 | - | 97,930 | - | | Inventory - COMEX | 401,925 | 398,717 | 391,848 | 335,086 | | Warehouse receipt - SHFE warehouse receipt | 28,931 | 29,531 | 28,969 | 43,789 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 38.09% | 38.39% | 3.89% | 8.60% | | CU2603 - CU2512 (continuous three - near - term) | 130 | - | 190 | 80 | | CU2602 - CU2512 (main - near - term) | 70 | - | 80 | 60 | | CU2602/AL2602 | 4.19 | 4.18 | 4.07 | 3.98 | | Arbitrage - CU2602/ZN2602 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 3.92 | 3.81 | | Import profit | - 946 | - 1078 | - 1433 | - 585 | | Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) | 7.94 | 7.96 | 7.98 | 8.04 | [26][27][28][29]