农产品日报 | 2026-02-10 棉价窄幅波动，郑糖小幅反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14580元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15689元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨，现货基差CF05+1109，较前一日变动-75；3128B棉全国均价15967元/吨， 较前一日变动-58元/吨，现货基差CF05+1387，较前一日变动-58。 近期市场资讯，1月巴西棉出口量为31.7万吨，环比（45.2万吨）减少29.9%，同比（41.6万吨）减少23.7%。截至 目前，巴西2025/26年度（2025.7-2026.6）累计出口棉花约172.2万吨，同比（约163.0万吨）增加5.6%。从累计出口 目的地看，中国（47.9万吨）为巴西棉花最大出口国，占总出口量的约27.8%；孟加拉（26.8万吨）位居第二，占 比约15.6%；土耳其（21.2万吨）排第三，占比约12.3%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价横盘整理。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，美棉出口签约进度仍偏慢，终端需求 受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-02-10 上游价格持续回落 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）商务部召开汽车企业座谈会，研究汽车流通消费有关工作。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上指出，我国 超大规模市场基础牢，汽车消费链条长潜力大，政策接续实施支撑稳，全链条扩大汽车消费大有可为。2026年， 商务部将会同相关部门，坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，存量措施和增量政策集成发力，优化实施汽车以旧换新， 开展汽车流通消费改革试点，完善行业管理制度，多措并举推动汽车消费扩容提质。 服务行业：1）财政部、海关总署、税务总局发布关于跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策的公告。支持跨境 电子商务新业态发展，现将跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策公告如下：对自2026年1月1日至2027年12月 31日期间在跨境电子商务海关监管代码（1210、9610、9710、9810）项下申报出口，因滞销、退货原因，自出口 之日起6个月内原状退运进境的商品（不含食品），免征进口关税和进口环节增值税、消费税；出口时已征收的出 口关税准予退还，出口时已征收的增值税、消费税参照内销货物发生退货有关税收规定执行。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游： ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-10 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材盘面震荡下行，现货方面，周末杭州螺纹库存77万吨，螺纹出库1.6万吨，去年同期库存55.5 万吨，出库3.0万吨。钢银数据显示，建材库存季节性增长，卷板库存呈现累库趋势。 供需与逻辑：目前钢材整体矛盾暂未突显，建材需求表现不佳，下游采购情绪偏弱，季节性累库略高于去年，压 制螺纹价格。板材需求相对维稳，然而高库存压制热卷价格空间。总体来说，节前钢材库存持续增长，供需压力 略有加大，叠加原料价格走弱，钢材保持震荡偏弱运行，后期关注冬储补库及原料价格变化。 策略 风险 地缘政治、库存变化、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾加剧，铁矿弱势运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格弱势运行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。本期全球铁矿石发运明显回落，全球发运总量2535万吨，环比减少18.1%；本 期45港到港量持续回落，到港总量2361万吨，环比下跌5.0%。 供需与 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 下游企业备货基本结束 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 2026-02-09，沪铜主力合约开于 101000元/吨，收于 101840元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.74%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 101,740元/吨，收于 102,450 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.93%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货报价在贴水30元至升水100元/吨之间，均价升水35元/吨，较前日小幅收窄。期铜主 力合约高开后震荡回落，日内波动于101,300-102,120元/吨区间。市场交投情绪分化，销售情绪指数微升，而采购 情绪略有回落。早间平水铜报价以贴水为主，部分优质品牌如金川、贵溪因货源紧张维持较高升水。至第二交易 时段，持货商普遍挺价，湿法及非注册铜以贴水成交。进口窗口此前开启带来的货源正逐步到港，市场供应预期 趋于宽松。同时，随着春节临近，下游企业备货基本结束，实际采购需求减弱。综合来看，在供应增加而需求转 淡的背景下，预计今日现货升贴水将承压下行。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美国就业增长数据预计将出现放缓， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Wash trade, the aluminum price has significantly corrected, releasing industrial contradictions. However, at the current time and price level, it is difficult to stimulate downstream active procurement. With downstream entering the holiday period, the social inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, the aluminum price is unlikely to perform well under inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and with a strong macro environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad, the long - term aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall [6] - The domestic supply pressure of alumina has not been alleviated. Although there are rumors about an alumina plant in Hebei, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact. The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and social inventory continues to increase. With the decline in the price of domestic ore in the north, the procurement enthusiasm of alumina plants for ore has decreased, and the import ore price is also falling. The cost side is difficult to provide strong support, and alumina plants are unlikely to initiate large - scale production cuts. The futures price is still at a premium, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change, with social inventory continuing to rise. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory, and the winter storage expectation is low. Although the current futures price discount to the spot price will relieve the pressure on warehouse receipts, it is difficult to change the inventory pressure [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,400 yuan/ton, a change of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,280 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed 15 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,500 yuan/ton, closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 23,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 304,640 lots, and the position was 197,639 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 857,000 tons, a change of 21,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 164,512 tons, a change of 8,979 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 488,975 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On February 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,840 yuan/ton, closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, a change of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.45%. The highest price reached 2,937 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,769 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,076,076 lots, and the position was 333,870 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 84,600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [5]

FICC日报 | 2026-02-10 市场压力缓解，股指反弹 市场分析 关注科技。宏观方面，总书记在察看代表性科技创新成果展示时指出，建设社会主义现代化强国，关键在科技自 立自强。要充分发挥我们国家集中力量办大事的优势，把各种优质要素集合起来攻关，加快解决突出短板问题， 实现我们的战略目标。海外方面，哈塞特表示，美国就业增长数据预计将出现放缓，但这并不意味着经济增长势 头减弱，而是反映了劳动力市场结构性变化。1月非农就业报告将于周三公布，市场预计将新增就业约7万人。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，上证指数涨1.41%收于4123.09点，创业板指涨2.98%。行业方面， 板块指数全部收红，通信、传媒、电子、计算机、机械设备行业领涨。当日沪深两市成交额约为2.2万亿元。沪深 北交易所宣布优化再融资一揽子措施，聚焦优质上市公司和科技创新领域，主要举措包括：提高审核效率；修订"轻 资产、高研发投入"认定标准；支持募集资金用于与主业有协同的新产业、新业态、新技术领域；对未盈利上市企 业缩短融资间隔等。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.04%报50135.87点，续创收盘新高。 期指升水。期货市场 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-10 青岛港口库存环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16245元/吨，较前一日变动+165元/吨；NR主力合约13150元/吨，较前一日变动+100 元/吨；BR主力合约12810元/吨，较前一日变动+20元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16100元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15200元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1955美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1895美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价12600元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2026年1月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约10.1万辆，同比增长约40%。 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of propylene are still supported, but attention should be paid to the cost - side fluctuations. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, the downstream rigid demand continues to support, but the demand follow - up may be limited after the profit is compressed. The cost - side fluctuations are intensifying, and the future main drivers lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the start - up follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the single - side trading. There is no suggestion for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the spread between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][8][15] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [21][23][29] III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - The report shows figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][49] IV. Propylene Inventory - Figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory are presented [66]

甲醇日报 | 2026-02-10 伊朗冬检恢复仍慢 甲醇观点 跨期：无 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤505元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润388元/吨（+68）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1873元/吨（+68），内蒙北线基差242元/吨（+81），内蒙南线1800元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2183元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差152元/吨（+13）；河南2020元/吨（+20），河南基差-11元/吨（+33）；河北2040元/吨（+0），河北基差69 元/吨（+13）。隆众内地工厂库存368900吨（-55820），西北工厂库存189000吨（-53100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 287051吨（+21391），西北工厂待发订单166000吨（+2200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2205元/吨（-2），太仓基差-26元/吨（+11），CFR中国262美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-25元/ 吨（-4），常州甲醇2265元/吨；广东甲醇2225元/吨（+15），广东基差-6元/吨（+28）。隆众港口总库存1411048吨 （-61003），江苏港口库存697148吨（-33703）， ...

尿素日报 | 2026-02-10 印标提振市场情绪 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-09，尿素主力收盘1788元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：2 元/吨（-2）；河南基差：2元/吨（+18）；江苏基差：12元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润225元/吨（+10），出口利润1081 元/吨（+148）。 供应端：截至2026-02-09，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.85 万吨（-2.64），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-09，复合肥产能利用率41.79%（+0.45%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.82日（+2.23）。 部分厂家收单好转，农业需求跟进，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应 量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入后期，部分淡 ...