农产品日报 | 2025-12-11 现货压力持续释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2754元/吨，较前日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.33%；菜粕2605合约2329元/吨，较前日 变动+12元/吨，幅度+0.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+306， 较前日变动+19；江苏地区豆粕现货3030元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M05+276，较前日变动+39；广东 地区豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动跌+30元/吨，现货基差M05+276，较前日变动+39。福建地区菜粕现货价 格2540元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+18。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部公布的12月供需报告显示，美国2025/26年度大豆产量预估为42.53亿蒲式耳，11月预估 为42.53亿蒲式耳；大豆播种面积预估为8110万英亩；大豆收割面积预估为8030万英亩；大豆单产预估为53蒲式耳/ 英亩；大豆出口量预估为16.35亿蒲式耳；大豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲式耳。巴西全国谷物出口商协 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-11 局部冬储合同释放，市场观望情绪仍存 市场分析 1、12月10日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价2940元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌7元/吨，跌幅 0.24%；持仓205972手，环比上涨4156手，成交141233手，环比下跌26608手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2860—3370元/吨；华南，2930—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3250元/吨。 原油价格反弹遇阻再度转跌，沥青成本端支撑偏弱，盘面则维持低位震荡状态。现货方面，昨日华北地区沥青现 货价格继续上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。个别地区沥青现货资源趋紧，贸易商适当上调沥青报价。当 前沥青基本面维持供需两弱格局，未来随着降温终端需求还有进一步下降的空间，对于具备配额的炼厂利润相对 可观，局部供应竞争较为激烈，压制现货价格。但在绝对价格已经跌至低位后，市场下行空间或有限，底部反弹 需要更多的刺激因素，等待冬储需求进一步释放。就冬储情况而言，本周河北主要炼厂率先放出冬储合同(报价3000 元/吨，提货期至明年3月底)，价格超出多数客户心理预 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-11 美联储利息决议公布在即，镍不锈钢震荡运行 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-10日沪镍主力合约2601开于117620元/吨，收于117090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.56%，当日成交量 为120019（+17609）手，持仓量为102583（-5403）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约震荡下行，延续近期弱势格局，整体呈现高位承压、逐级下行的态势，成交量较前 日略有放大。主要受供需过剩、下游需求疲软和美联储决议前谨慎情绪影响，预计将继续在11.4-12万元/吨区间弱 势震荡。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，但未有成交落地，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面，矿山多履 行前期订单出货为主。矿山多挺价心态。下游镍铁价格回暖，国内工厂多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态 或将放缓。印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25，升水区 间多在+25-26。整体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格121700元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌1,100元/吨。现货交投尚可，各品牌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall terminal demand is average, and the prices of various black building materials show different trends, with some fluctuating up and others down [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,282 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel transactions were good, the market rose, and low-price speculation and futures-spot purchases increased [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve. Although consumption has declined, production has also decreased, and inventory pressure has further eased. The improvement of the supply-demand fundamentals of plates is insufficient, and high inventories continue to suppress plate prices. Appropriate production cuts are needed to reduce the pressure of seasonal inventory accumulation in the later stage. With the continuous cooling in various places, the off-season of building material demand has arrived [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-period, cross-variety, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were relatively strong. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid needs. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 715,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.12% [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: This week, the shipment of iron ore increased slightly, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline. Currently, the iron ore price remains at a relatively high level. However, due to market factors, the inventory of some iron ore varieties is locked, keeping the price high. If external factors are removed later and the inventory is released intensively, the iron ore price will face certain pressure [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward yesterday. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas continued to decline. Currently, end-users such as the chemical industry maintain on-demand procurement, and most coal mines continue to reduce prices to destock. Some steel mills plan to lower the price of wet-quenched coke. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal continued to be weak, dropping to around 960 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coking coal, with the sharp decline in the futures market, the expectation of a decline in coke prices is strong, and the support of rigid demand for raw materials is weak. In the short term, coal prices will still fluctuate weakly and stably. For coke, affected by environmental protection factors, the supply has shrunk slightly. Coupled with the maintenance plans of some steel mills, the demand for coke has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to the hot metal output and the trend of coking coal prices [5][6] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, the trend is expected to be volatile; for cross-variety, cross-period, futures-spot, and options, there are no specific strategies [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices in the main production areas continued to fluctuate downward. Currently, the market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. End-users with rigid demand purchase on demand, and some reduce prices and quantities. Under the spread of pessimistic sentiment, coal prices will fluctuate downward in the short term. In the port market, the recent weak trend has continued, and the price center of gravity has continued to move down. The inventory of northern ports has continued to rise, while downstream end-users have not increased their purchases. Traders are pessimistic, and it is still difficult to sell at low prices, with difficult transactions. In terms of imports, both domestic and foreign trade prices have fallen rapidly recently, and the price of imported coal has fallen faster, still maintaining a cost-effective advantage [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market, and coal prices have fluctuated. In the long term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non-power coal [8] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [8]

12 !""#+$%&'(")*+,-./012345 ——!"#$%&'! !"#$$%&'$ (/01234567892025-12-11 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3 点，美联储公布 12 月利率决议，宣布降息 25bp，将 利率下调至在 3.5%-3.75%，符合预期；将超额准备金利率从 3.9%下降至 3.65%，符合 预期。 1）缩表正式结束＋启动储备管理购买：美联储从持续收紧转向通过增持短券来稳定流 动性，这是政策方向上的关键转折。 2）内部分歧：本次会议内部出现 2019 年以来首次 "三票反对"，显示决策层对后续降 息路径分歧加大。 n !"# 12 $%& 25bp 本次会议的核心特征是政策框架转折以及内部分歧加大。美联储连续第三次降息 25bp， 与预期一致，但点阵图维持明年仅一次降息的指引， ...

宏观日报 | 2025-12-10 关注AI上游供给变动 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。彭博社记者提问，美国总统特朗普称将批准向中 国出售英伟达H200人工智能芯片。请问中方是否会允许购买这些H200芯片？另外，特朗普何时将这一决定告知中 方？中美领导人之间是否通过电话？对此，郭嘉昆表示："我们注意到有关报道。中方一贯主张中美通过合作实现 互利共赢。" 服务行业：1）12月9日，国务院总理李强在北京分别会见来华出席"1+10"对话会的世界银行行长彭安杰、国际货 币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃和联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘。李强表示，将坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，促 进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：铜价持续回升。2）能源：液化天然气价格持续回落。3）化工：化工品价格近期集体小幅震荡。 中游：1）化工：PX、PTA、聚酯开工率下行；尿素开工持稳，处三年期高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量提高。3）基 建：沥青开工淡季 下游：1）地产：一、二、三线城市商品房销售近期持续回暖。2）服务：国 ...

Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint presented in the given reports. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 939,000 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,093,300 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,137,400 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 102,500 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2,065,000 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 22,300 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 139,200 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 178,800 contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 321,000 call and 254,400 put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options with a total of 575,400 contracts [19]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.70, with a month - on - month change of +0.17; the open interest PCR was 1.00, with a month - on - month change of - 0.07. Similar data are provided for other types of options [2][34]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 14.01%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.23%. Other options also have their respective VIX values and month - on - month changes, like the CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) with a VIX of 15.32% and a month - on - month change of - 0.33% [3][47].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-10 关注中国11月通胀数据和美联储利率决议 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明年经 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-10 指数盘整等待重要会议 市场分析 高层态度积极。宏观方面，国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强强调，今年中国 经济顶压前行，取得新的发展成绩，我们有信心有能力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。中国经济将保持稳健向 好势头，经济总量将再上新台阶，产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。海外方面，ADP 最新数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私营雇主平均每周新增4750个就业岗位，结束了此前连续四周的就 业流失；美国10月JOLTS职位空缺767万人，远超预期的711.7万人。 股指分化。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，沪指跌0.37%收于3909.52点，创业板指涨0.61%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，仅通信、电子、商贸零售、国防军工行业收红，有色金属、钢铁、房地产、煤炭行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额回落至1.9万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨0.13%报23576.49点。 期指活跃度下降。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM的贴水修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指成交量减少，IC、IM的持 仓量增加。 策略 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 市场清淡，镍不锈钢偏弱震荡运行 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-09日沪镍主力合约2601开于118040元/吨，收于117350元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.58%，当日成交量 为102410（-22103）手，持仓量为107986（-3599）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约延续近期震荡偏弱的整体趋势，价格在20日均线附近震荡，收盘位于20均线之上， 但均线方向向下。在美联储议息会议前交投谨慎，短期内价格大概率维持116,000-120,000元/吨区间波动，突破方 向将取决于美联储的政策决定。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场偶有询盘，但未有成交落地，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面，矿山多履 行前期订单出货为主。下游镍铁价格略有回探，国内工厂多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印 尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 整体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格122800元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨100元/吨。现货交投一般， ...