新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 期货行情： 2026-02-05，沪铜主力合约开于 104000元/吨，收于 100980元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-3.97%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 100,430元/吨，收于 101,430 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降1.43%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货均价贴水70元/吨，较前日上涨30元/吨，铜价区间100260~102020元/吨。期 铜早盘下探后回升，收盘101100元/吨。市场流通货源持续偏紧，持货商挺价意愿强烈，好铜、平水铜贴水报价均 逐步收窄，日内采销情绪小幅回暖。尽管后续进口货源预计将小幅补充市场，但受持货商惜售及部分货源备货交 割影响，现货供应仍显紧张。综合来看，预计明日现货贴水有望继续小幅收敛。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，自2026年2月9日（星期一）收盘结算时起，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下，国际铜 期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整 为12%。此外，隔夜美股集体走弱，市场流动性或再受到冲击，铜价亦受到一定影响。 矿端方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continued. Global trade uncertainty increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.96, with a day - on - day increase of 0.31 (+0.32%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9390, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.004 (-0.06%); SHIBOR 7 days was 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.61%); DR007 was 1.48, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.64%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.00%) [11] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The content mainly includes figures about the closing price trend, price change, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [13][14][16] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The content includes figures about the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [24][25][27] 4. Spread Overview - The content includes figures about the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.), but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [32][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [43][45] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [47][55] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [54] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The content includes figures about the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, but specific numerical data is not described in detail in the text [59][64] 9. Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Policy**: On December 8, the Political Bureau meeting proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, sending a signal of loose money. The Central Economic Working Conference proposed that in 2026, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and flexibly and efficiently use reserve - requirement ratio cuts, interest - rate cuts, and structural policy tools. Starting from January 19, 2026, the interest rates of a basket of re - loans and rediscounts were lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and there was still room for further reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [1] - **Inflation**: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [1] - **Finance**: In 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure did not meet expectations. Revenue was dragged down by the weakening of tax revenue and the high base of non - tax revenue, and the annual general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The expenditure rhythm was advanced, the year - end intensity weakened, and the annual completion rate was low. In terms of structure, people's livelihood expenditures were generally stable, the proportion of infrastructure expenditures decreased, and land fiscal revenue continued to be weak. In 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, emphasizing "increased total amount, better structure", and the expenditure intensity is expected to increase, with the rhythm continuing to be advanced to support stable growth [2] - **Finance (Social Financing and Credit)**: In the first 12 months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. At the end of December, the balance of RMB loans increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the balance of deposits increased by 8.7% year - on - year. In terms of credit, there was an obvious divergence between residents' and enterprises' financing. The decrease in residents' loans reflected the weak endogenous demand, while enterprises' loans increased year - on - year, indicating that the effects of policy support were gradually emerging [2] - **Central Bank**: On February 5, 2026, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 118.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity bidding [2] - **Money Market**: The repurchase interest rates for the main terms of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.319%, 1.464%, 1.614%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2] - **Market**: On February 5, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.32 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, and the price changes were 0.04%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.38% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.022 yuan, - 0.051 yuan, 0.021 yuan, and 0.077 yuan respectively [3] 10. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures oscillated [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of 2603 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term oil prices are influenced by the Iranian situation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have a slim chance of reaching an agreement, but their progress needs close monitoring. Iranian oil competes with Russian oil, and Iran strongly demands the lifting of sanctions. Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position is recommended in the medium term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Key Data - On February 6, Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main crude oil grade for Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply has exceeded demand. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel, which is the lowest since late 2020 [1]. - BP is seeking partners to increase production at the oldest oil field in the Middle East and share costs. The search for potential investors in the Kirkuk oil field in Iraq is underway, and it may last until next year. Large oil companies are showing renewed interest in Iraq, which has abundant and easily - mined oil resources. BP is seeking more international growth in oil and gas production, abandoning its previous pursuit of clean energy and net - zero emissions [1]. - On February 5, due to the US - Iran agreement to hold nuclear negotiations in Oman on Friday, confirmed by the White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, crude oil prices fell in the Asian morning session [1]. Investment Logic - Short - term oil prices are affected by the Iranian situation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations face large differences, with a small hope of agreement, but progress should be closely monitored. Iranian oil competes with Russian oil, and the lifting of sanctions is Iran's strong demand [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position is recommended in the medium term [3].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream is entering the holiday period, with the operating rate continuously declining. Even though zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers are still mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The seasonal off - season this year is in sync with previous years, and the previous increase in absolute prices did not have a negative impact on downstream consumption. Social inventories are starting the initial stage of accumulation, with the expected peak of inventory accumulation at 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, integrated smelting still faces partial losses. There is no obvious pressure on the supply of zinc ingots falling short of expectations, and there is still long - term optimism about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$22.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,580 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 340 yuan per ton to 24,560 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,530 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,785 yuan per ton, closed at 24,395 yuan per ton, down 440 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 196,623 lots, and the position was 70,531 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,980 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,390 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 133,900 tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 107,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The downstream is in the holiday period with falling operating rates. Social inventories are starting to accumulate, and the expected peak is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore is on a downward trend, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Integrated smelting has partial losses, and there is no obvious pressure on supply falling short of expectations. Long - term optimism remains for consumption and macro factors [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slowdown in Chinese arrivals has materialized, leading to a decline in port inventories this week. However, the winter maintenance units in Iran have started to resume production, and ZPC has restarted one production line. Attention should be paid to the subsequent resumption progress, as the resumption of Iranian units may suppress the market, while also keeping an eye on the development of the geopolitical situation in Iran. [2] - The coal - based methanol plants maintain high - level operation. The downstream pending orders are performing well, and the inventory of inland factories has further decreased, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival. [3] - In the traditional downstream sector, acetic acid remains in a loss - making and low - load operation state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and the MTBE production rate shows a good performance. [3] - The MTO units are in the maintenance period, and Xingxing and Shenghong are still under maintenance. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis and Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between spot methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, such as in Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong. It also shows the inter - period spreads between different futures contracts like methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7][13] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. [6][26][27] 3.3 Methanol Production Rate and Inventory - The report shows data on the total methanol port inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated units). [6][34][41] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It includes price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. [6][38][46] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production profits of traditional downstream products, such as the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][50][54]

果蔬品日报 | 2026-02-06 昨日苹果期价窄幅震荡收涨，随着春节临近，备货节奏明显加快，消费端需求持续升温，市场成交活跃度同步提 升。从流通环节来看，节前集中采购逐步释放，商品周转效率普遍提高，但部分经销商在采购产地货源时，仍对 价格保持一定的谈判空间。尽管当前整体价格水平相较砂糖橘、车厘子等替代品类仍处于高位，但在品质表现突 出的前提下，优质货源价格整体运行平稳。后续需重点关注终端市场的实际消费表现。2026年1月苹果市场呈现"产 区备货拉动出货、销区需求承接乏力"的分化特征，新旧库存叠加，虽然去库速度加快但仍处高位。春节备货带动 晚富士出货环比加速但同比放缓，价格两极分化明显，好货因稀缺性价格坚挺，果农统货受急售心态影响普遍让 价，山东、陕西走货清淡，甘肃产区果农货成交相对集中。广东三大核心市场早间日均到车量均环比减少，月内 整体走货不畅，中转库积压加剧，虽月末备货带动到车量回升，但终端消化不足，叠加砂糖橘、车厘子等替代品 价格冲击，市场表现旺季不旺。 策略 苹果市场承压运行，红枣现货价格平稳 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9586元/吨，较前一日变动-8元/吨， ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-06 豆一备货收窄，花生购销趋淡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4382.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.16%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+58，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北地区大豆行情保持稳定，市场整体呈现平稳运行态势。据贸易商反映，当前市场购销活 跃度趋于下降，产地基层余粮较为有限，交易多围绕现有库存进行消化。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等 蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元 /斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元 /斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格升高回落。南方大豆主产区购销平稳，现货价格持稳，优质优价特征依然明显，但整 体成交节奏未见明显放量。销区市场近期采购 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of the February contract valuation is expected to be around 1700 points, and factors such as ship delays and the online cargo collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final settlement price [5] - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price support in March after the holiday [6] - For more distant contracts, there is intense speculation about the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to rise. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [7] Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of February 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 60,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 52,502 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1743.00, 1268.20, 1568.20, 1630.50, 1131.80, and 1420.20 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - On February 1, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1101.40 points [8] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) were delivered. In the future, the delivery volume of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships), 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; the delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships is 192,900 TEU (8 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships), and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [3] Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in February was 263,100 TEU, with capacities of 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU in weeks 6 - 9. The average weekly capacity in March was 313,400 TEU, with capacities of 245,200 TEU, 321,000 TEU, 365,000 TEU, 317,000 TEU, and 319,000 TEU in weeks 10 - 14. The average weekly capacity in April was 279,000 TEU, with capacities of 291,300 TEU, 317,700 TEU, 266,500 TEU, and 241,200 TEU in weeks 15 - 18. There were 12 blank sailings in February, and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBN in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. The full resumption of the Red Sea has no clear schedule, and multiple conditions need to be met. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route has been adjusted, and subsequent adjustments to AE12 and AE15 services are also planned [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [6] Strategies Unilateral - The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate [9] Arbitrage - None at present [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The overall contradiction of steel products in the off - season is limited, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. Iron ore inventory accumulates, and the price fluctuates downward. Coking coal and coke are in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating. The supply and demand of thermal coal weaken during the Spring Festival holiday, and the price fluctuates [2][4][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - The futures market of steel products fluctuates downward. The main contract of rebar futures closes at 3101 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closes at 3263 yuan/ton. The actual national building materials output decreases by 81500 tons compared with last week, the total inventory increases by 440400 tons, and the apparent demand decreases by 287600 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils increases by 112900 tons, and the apparent demand decreases by 58700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - In the off - season, the demand for building materials slows down, and the procurement sentiment is weak, which significantly suppresses the demand for rebar. The demand for plates is relatively stable, but the downstream manufacturing procurement sentiment is also cautious. The steel inventory accumulates before the festival, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. Attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [2] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The price of iron ore decreases slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port are weakly declining. Traders' quotation enthusiasm is average, and steel mills' procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports today is 986000 tons, a 4.64% decrease from the previous day [4] Supply - Demand and Logic - The global shipping volume increases slightly, the shipping volume from Australia decreases, and the shipping volume from Brazil increases significantly. The arrival volume of imported iron ore is stable but at a historical high. Although the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the molten iron output is at a medium - high level. The port inventory and steel mills' inventory continue to increase. The end - demand support weakens as the winter storage replenishment of steel mills is nearing the end. Attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation progress of iron ore and the steel mills' replenishment [5] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is to short on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - The main contract of coking coal futures closes at 1172 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke closes at 1738 yuan/ton. The price of coking coal stabilizes, and individual coal varieties decline slightly. Coking plants mainly produce normally, with good coke shipping enthusiasm and low inventory. Steel mills' procurement is for rigid demand, and the speculative demand is weak. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment, and the coke inventory is at a high level. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is in the range of 1030 - 1050 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Demand and Logic - For coke, the supply is stable, the demand is suppressed by the weakening of steel products, and steel mills purchase as needed. The market contradiction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, following cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the domestic supply tightens marginally due to holidays, the demand replenishment is nearing the end, and the trading is light. Before the Spring Festival, the coal price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment. The total inventory is accumulating but still low, and the fundamental contradiction is not large. Attention should be paid to overseas demand and post - festival supply recovery [8] Strategy - Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [9] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the coal price fluctuates. Before the Spring Festival, the long - term agreement shipment is stable, and some terminals make small - scale preparations. However, as more downstream factories are on holiday, the overall demand declines, some coal mines have poor sales, and the price is under pressure. At the northern ports, the market trading is light, and the quotation is basically stable. The import market is stable and slightly strong recently. Due to policy disturbances in Indonesia, the quantity of foreign ore reported for shipment decreases, and the future import volume is expected to shrink, with strong short - term support for the price of imported coal from Indonesia [10] Supply - Demand and Logic - Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand weaken, and the coal price fluctuates. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [10] Strategy - No strategy is provided [11]

FICC日报 | 2026-02-06 指数震荡，防御偏强 市场分析 中美元首通话。宏观方面，2026年全国服务消费和服务贸易工作会议在京召开。会议强调，当前消费结构加快从 商品消费主导向服务消费主导转变，要培育服务消费新增长点，鼓励支持服务出口，创新发展数字贸易。海外方 面，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最差。去年12月职位空 缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数意外大增2.2万至23.1万。 指数收跌。现货市场，A股三大指数收跌，上证指数跌0.64%收于4075.92点，创业板指跌1.55%。行业方面，板块 指数涨跌互现，美容护理、银行、食品饮料行业领涨，有色金属、电力设备、通信行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交额约为2.5万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌1.59%报22540.59点。 IH增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM基差回升，当月合约升水。成交持仓方面，IH、IF、IC的交量和持仓量同 步增加。 策略 近期美元持续走强，引发全球多数风险资产价格回落。国内市场方面，随着春节假期临近，节前最后几个交 ...