Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to PX/PTA/PF/PR [4] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of the crude oil market has obvious long - short differences, and geopolitical factors put pressure on oil prices. PX supply is expected to increase, with many overseas restart plans and more imports from arbitrage. TA has a de - stocking balance sheet in December and limited inventory accumulation pressure in January. The polyester start - up rate is 90.8% (up 0.4% month - on - month), but the downstream weaving load is declining. PF has weak demand and increasing inventory, while PR's processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range [1][2][3] - For the strategy, in the short term, PX, PTA, PF, and PR are rated neutral. In the medium term, after a pullback, it is advisable to go long on a hedging basis at low prices [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes charts on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][11][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Charts show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA's export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the start - up loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts display PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [37][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes data on filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, various filament loads, polyester bottle - chip load, and related factory inventory days, as well as the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang's weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [47][49][58] PF Detailed Data - There are details on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, and the start - up rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [69][76][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and various month - on - month spreads of bottle - chips [86][88][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, while plates are constrained by high inventory. After the New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials and potential steel mill restarts for plates should be monitored [1]. - The iron ore market shows a significant decline in global shipments. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the inventory is increasing. Although the short - term price is in high - level oscillation, it faces downward risk once negotiations are finalized [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with a weakening oscillation trend. After the New Year's Day, the demand for coke may improve with steel mill restarts, while coking coal prices may remain weak before winter storage and could be further adjusted after [5][6]. - The thermal coal market sees a recovery in production area supply, and the coal price is stabilizing in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still abundant, and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be watched [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures main contract declined slightly yesterday, and the spot prices generally fell, with rebar down 10 - 20 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have a stable supply - demand situation with limited price fluctuations. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will intensify the game between reality and expectation. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve due to potential mill restarts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, but steel mills' procurement intention was low. Global iron ore shipments dropped significantly, with a 12.6% MoM decrease to 3214 million tons, while the 45 - port arrivals increased by 6% MoM to 2756 million tons [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and inventory is increasing. The market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices, but there is a downward risk once negotiations are settled. In the short term, the price will remain high - level oscillating [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main coking coal and coke futures contracts declined yesterday. The coking profit improved, and the demand from steel mills' blast furnaces increased slightly after New Year's Day. Coal mine production resumed, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered rapidly, with the Mongolian 5 raw coal price at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Supply and demand logic: The demand for coke may improve after New Year's Day, and it will remain oscillating in the short term. Coking coal supply and demand are relatively loose, and its price will remain weakly oscillating before winter storage and could be adjusted further after [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices fluctuated, and the group's purchased - in price and port price stabilized and rebounded. In the ports, the inventory decreased, driving a short - term price increase. The import market was inactive, with limited actual transactions [8]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still low, and the coal price is oscillating with the recovery of production area supply. In the long - term, the supply is abundant [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 5, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors on January 5, 2026, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day. The sectors include stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 711.329 billion yuan, a +21.38% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1502.686 billion yuan, a +7.49% change; the trading - holding ratio was 47.94% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 367.150 billion yuan, a - 9.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 786.980 billion yuan, a +1.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 45.96% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 584.817 billion yuan, a - 36.94% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 736.182 billion yuan, a +6.76% change; the trading - holding ratio was 88.15%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 483.987 billion yuan, a - 67.29% change; the holding amount was 485.009 billion yuan, a +0.53% change; the trading - holding ratio was 133.56% [1]. V. Energy - Chemical Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 366.420 billion yuan, a +0.31% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 427.998 billion yuan, a +4.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 82.22% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 268.712 billion yuan, a +14.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 553.692 billion yuan, a +2.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.04% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 144.749 billion yuan, a - 19.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 298.128 billion yuan, a +3.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 47.99% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 31, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 581,500 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 696,100 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,105,100 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 36,000 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,264,700 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 26,500 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 98,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 221,900 contracts [1]. - The near - day trading volume details of index ETF options on another table show that the total trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 600,100 contracts, CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 789,000 contracts, CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,053,200 contracts, Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 35,000 contracts, ChiNext ETF options was 1,264,700 contracts, SSE 50 index options was 26,500 contracts, CSI 300 index options was 103,200 contracts, and CSI 1000 index options was 221,900 contracts [19]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.80 with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; the position PCR was reported at 0.92 with a month - on - month change of - 0.03. Similar data is provided for other options including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, SSE 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 14.43% with a month - on - month change of - 0.37%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 16.34% with a month - on - month change of - 0.17%. Similar data is provided for other options including CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, SSE 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [3][47].

流动性日报 | 2026-01-05 市场流动性概况 2025-12-31，股指板块成交5860.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.06%；持仓金额13980.17亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.70%；成交持仓比为42.16%。 国债板块成交4077.39亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.39%；持仓金额7765.03亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.10%；成交 持仓比为52.38%。 基本金属板块成交9274.03亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.95%；持仓金额6895.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.50%；成 交持仓比为138.10%。 贵金属板块成交14795.39亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.36%；持仓金额4824.61亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.18%；成 交持仓比为452.11%。 能源化工板块成交3652.96亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.45%；持仓金额4100.90亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.98%；成 交持仓比为86.06%。 农产品板块成交2340.10亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.35%；持仓金额5396.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.74%；成交 持仓比为41.22%。 黑色建材板块成交1 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2026-01-05 12 月制造业景气回升 ——宏观景气度系列十二 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 12 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.1（+0.9pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2（+0.7pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：小幅改善。12 月生产指数为 51.7，较上月变化 1.7 。供应商配送时间指数为 50.2， 较上月变化 0.1 。 需求：外需降幅收窄。12 月新订单指数为 50.8，较上月变化 1.6 。新出口订单指数为 49，较上月变化 1.4 。在手订单指数为 46，较上月变化 0.5 。 供求平衡：仍待改善。12 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.9 ，较上月变化-0.1 ，较去年 同期变化 0.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 0.2 。 价格：盈利收缩。12月原材料价格指数为 53.1，较上月变化-0.5 。出厂价格指数为 48.9， 较上月变化 0.7 。出厂价格-原材料价格差值为-4.2 ， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [4]. - Supply: Slightly declined. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, while 10 industries declined [4]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined [4]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease [4]. Non - Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [5]. - Supply: Employment remained at a low level. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Both the service and construction sectors increased by 0.4 percentage points [5]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points [5]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [10]. - Non - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [10]. Demand - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. Pay attention to the improvement in textiles and pharmaceuticals and the decline in petroleum [16]. Supply - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 48.3, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service and construction sectors both increased by 0.4 percentage points. Eleven industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 3 industries declined. Pay attention to the decline in non - ferrous metals and农副食品 and the improvement in ferrous metals [25]. Price - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in December was 48.2, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Seven industries saw their ex - factory prices improve, and 8 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in December increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the overall continued to converge. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in December was 48.3, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector increased by 0.3 percentage points, and the construction sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Eight industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 7 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit in December remained unchanged. The service sector decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction sector increased by 0.5 percentage points. Pay attention to the improvement in non - ferrous metals and the decline in petroleum [34]. Inventory - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. The manufacturing PMI raw - material inventory in November decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.5. Seven industries saw inventory increase, and 8 industries saw inventory decrease. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. Pay attention to the destocking of non - metallic products and the increase in construction inventory [42]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides data on the PMI of various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, computers, motors, pharmaceuticals,农副食品, textiles, non - ferrous metals, petroleum, chemicals, ferrous metals, non - metallic products, metal products, and chemical fiber and rubber products, showing values, month - on - month changes, three - year averages, and year - on - year changes [53][54][57][58][59][66][67][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of mismatch between production and demand still exists. Polysilicon shows a strong and wide - range oscillation, while industrial silicon prices oscillate within a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with cost maintaining support [1][4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 57,000 - 61,000 yuan/ton, waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer [4][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Situation Review - Industrial silicon: The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of the main contract on the futures market first fell and then rose. The overall profit level is relatively average. The consumption side has a slight decline, and the inventory may maintain a slight accumulation. - Polysilicon: The supply side decreased slightly in December. The downstream prices increased, but the high - inventory pressure and weak demand recovery have not been fundamentally resolved. The price increased slightly in December, and the futures market first rose and then fell [4][5][6]. 2. Supply - side Data - **Industrial silicon**: As of December 25, the total number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces was 796, and the number of open furnaces increased by 23 compared with November. The overall furnace - opening rate was 30.53%. The monthly output increased significantly compared with the previous month. The expected supply is expected to weaken. The import volume from January to November 2025 decreased by 64% year - on - year [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The total output in December was about 115,000 tons. Some leading enterprises reduced production at the end of the year, and the output decreased to match the demand due to factors such as industry self - discipline and the traditional off - season of demand [4]. 3. Consumption - side Review - **Industrial silicon**: In December, the downstream demand continued to tighten. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the organic silicon start - up rate declined, and the aluminum alloy industry mainly purchased on demand. The export volume in November 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the gradual consumption of inventory, the replenishment demand is expected to be released, but the overall consumption side will decline slightly [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices increased. The domestic silicon wafer production in December decreased by 19.3% month - on - month, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The battery cell production increased in September. The component price continued to oscillate, and the production in December was about 38.7GW, with the production schedule in January expected to decline slightly [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Basis Analysis - **Industrial silicon**: The current basis is about 340 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the basis expanded. It is expected that the 553 basis will oscillate around 400 yuan/ton in January 2026, and the 421 basis will oscillate around 850 yuan/ton. The reverse - spread strategy between the January and February contracts can be concerned [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The current N - type dense material average price is at a discount of - 6420 yuan/ton to the futures main contract. Due to the influence of the establishment of the platform company and the expected storage policy, the basis has continued to expand. If the policy has no obvious progress, the basis is expected to be strong but show a recovery state, moving towards - 4000 yuan/ton [11].

化工月报 | 2026-01-04 新装置计划投产，1月EG累库压力仍偏大 核心观点 市场要闻与数据 库存：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布的数 据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。12月，EG平衡表累库20万吨附近，乙二醇港口库存也继续 回升，聚酯工厂EG库存也提升至偏高位。1月新装置存投产预期，同时检修计划偏少，平衡表维持累库预期，预计 在20万吨附近，港口库存压力预计将继续提升。 进出口：中国乙二醇月度进口量583398吨（环比-70764吨）；中国乙二醇月度出口量17042吨（环比+5653吨）。进 口市场来看，11月净进口量56.6万吨，部分货源延迟至12月到港。根据已到船及未来船期情况，预估 12月份进口 量在80万吨附近，1月前进口压力都偏大，2月后将有所缓解。 市场分析 国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供应和需求转弱下累库压 力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓解。需求端，织造订单边际转弱 负荷加速下滑，效益转弱 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 高价抑制下游需求 但操作仍可持续逢低买入套保 市场要闻与重要数据 1. 矿端供应方面，12月铜矿供应围绕"零加工费"与潜在罢工两条主线展开。12月25日CSPT正式将2026年Q1现货TC 指导价空缺，长单Benchmark定格在0美元/吨，较2025年的21.25美元/吨"腰斩再归零"，凸显精矿持续紧张。现货 TC结算-44.98美元/干吨，环比再跌1.3美元。矿企动态方面，Kaz Minerals缩减对中国直供、转向贸易商招标，中标 价-50美元，进一步压缩中国冶炼厂原料选择。刚果Kamoa 50万吨粗炼产能12月29日产出首批阳极板，增量预期落 在2026年Q2之后，短期无实质舒缓。智利Mantoverde（年产3万吨铜）工会12月24日进入5+5天调解期，罢工窗口 覆盖1月上旬，供给扰动概率高。综合来看，矿端维持"极紧+高扰动"格局，1月若无罢工兑现，TC或继续横盘-40~-45 美元区间；一旦Mantoverde停产，干净矿现货或再收紧，TC不排除下探-50美元。 2. 粗铜供应方面，12月全球粗铜与阳极板贸易维持"长单锁定、现货稀缺"格局。国内南方粗 ...