1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TC of domestic zinc mines continues to decline, and although the zinc ore import window is open due to the convergence of internal and external price ratios after overseas zinc ingot centralized warehousing, the purchasing demand of smelters remains strong, and TC is expected to decline slightly. The current zinc price is undervalued with positive domestic and overseas expectations [1][2] - The production of domestic zinc mines has entered the winter production - reduction cycle, with the output in November 2025 being 311,400 metal tons, 12,000 tons less than expected. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7%. As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons [2] - In December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected due to the continuous decline of TC. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, but it is still expected to be in a net export state in December. The comprehensive smelting of zinc ingots still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots has shown a downward trend [3] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide have all increased slightly. In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.60%, and the cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Concentrate - In December, the domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped 550 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index decreased from $61.25/ton to $43.75/ton. The price negotiation for January is still ongoing, and it is expected to decline slightly [2] - In November 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate output was 311,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 metal tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, 12,000 tons less than expected. It is expected that the output in December will be 320,000 metal tons. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7% [2] - As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons. The raw material inventory of smelters was 388,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons, and the available days increased by 1.5 days to 22.3 days, but the available days of inventory are still low [2] Refined Zinc - According to SMM data, in December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected [3] - Due to the opening of the export window, in November 2025, China's net export of zinc ingots was 24,500 tons, and the cumulative net import from January to November was 228,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, and it is still expected to be in a net export state in December [3] - In terms of smelting profit, both domestic and imported TC have dropped significantly. Although the zinc price is oscillating strongly, the net smelting loss is still - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive smelting still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - The latest inventory of zinc ingots in seven places is 106,000 tons, with a destocking of 38,000 tons in December. The consumption in the off - season at the end of the year shows resilience. Even after the export window is closed, the inventory still shows a downward trend. The warrant inventory is 42,419 tons, the bonded area inventory is 3,300 tons, and the latest LME inventory is 107,625 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of more than 50,000 tons in December [3] Consumption End - The operating rate of galvanizing is 57.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the operating rate of die - casting is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%; the operating rate of zinc oxide is 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [4] - In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.53% and a year - on - year increase of 13.60%. The cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report points out that there is a risk of a swing in policy expectations both at home and abroad. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and global instability will be the norm. The supply - side risks of commodities and loose monetary policies are decisive factors for rising commodity prices. It also mentions bifurcations in domestic and overseas economic outlooks and suggests investment strategies for different asset classes [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: There is a risk of a swing in policy expectations after domestic important meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment. Attention should be paid to specific domestic policies and Trump's Fed chair candidate. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year holiday may lead to supply - side risks for commodities and support price increases [1]. - **Meso**: There is a divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized consumption promotion and "anti - involution." Trade supported the December economic outlook, with consumption leading the industry recovery, and the persistence of new orders' resilience needs attention [2]. - **Micro**: Focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and also look for opportunities in low - valued commodity price hikes. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a preferred choice. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical events and future supply expectations. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3]. Strategy - **Commodities and Stock Index Futures**: Allocate more on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Economic Heat Maps - **US Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, different economic indicators showed various trends. Consumption contributed 66.8% to GDP, investment 26.1%, and fiscal 20.3%. Indicators such as GDP growth, employment, inflation, and consumption had their own fluctuations [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, and credit indicators all had different trends. For example, the inflation rate was around 2% - 2.5% [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: In 2025, net exports contributed 30.3% to GDP, investment 25.2%, and consumption 44.5%. GDP growth, investment in different sectors, consumption, inflation, and financial indicators showed their own characteristics. For instance, the real estate investment growth rate was negative [9].

农产品月报 | 2026-01-04 减产预期提振棉价，白糖走势依旧承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，截止12月底收盘，棉花2605合约14585元/吨，环比上月上涨900元/吨，涨幅6.58%。现货方面，新 疆地区棉花现货价格15392元/吨，环比上月上涨669元/吨，现货基差CF05+807，环比下跌231。全国棉花现货 加权均价15556元/吨，环比上月上涨660元/吨，现货基差CF05+971，环比下跌240。 国际方面，据USDA，12月中旬出口销售回落至正常水平，巴基斯坦、孟加拉签约明显修复。中国签约装运环比 回落。截止12月18日当周，2025/26美陆地棉周度签约4.14万吨，环比减40%，较四周平均水平降2%，同比降 6%，其中越南签约2.03万吨，巴基斯坦0.67万吨；2026/27年度美陆地棉周度签约0.02万吨；2025/26美陆地棉 周度装运3.33万吨，环比增长9%，较四周平均水平增23%，同比增14%，其中越南装运0.92万吨，巴基斯坦装运 0.36万吨。 国内方面，截止到2026年1月3日24点，2025棉花年度全国共有1094家棉花加工企业按照棉花质量检验体制改革 ...

尿素月报 | 2026-01-04 需求柔性支撑，关注采购节奏及消息扰动 市场要闻与数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1749元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-39元/吨（-6）；河南尿素基差-49元/吨（+4）；江苏尿素基差-39 元/吨（-6）。12月先跌后涨，上半月随着下游畏高情绪凸显，储备节奏放缓，期现价格共振下跌。部分区域环保限 制导致下游开工下降，随后上游部分企业也受影响供应下滑，月中随着印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，尿素 现货成交氛围好转，带动价格上涨，环保预警再现，尿素部分上下游开工受限，现货价格降价吸单，现货采购情 绪再度好转。 供应端：截至2026-01-04，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.9%）；尿素月度产量为600万吨，同比+7.66%。尿素12月部 分气头进入检修，装置检修与复产并行，月度产量较11月小幅增加。8月安徽中能、章丘日月投产，9月九江心连 心投产，10月甘肃金昌投产，11月新疆中能投产。1月暂定3套气头装置计划检修，部分气头检修企业以及前期技 改装置回 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic divergence between China and the US became more apparent. The US labor market continued to cool, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and non - farm payroll growth slowing. The US stock market corrected at the end of the year. In contrast, China's economy remained stable, with the manufacturing PMI rising slightly and the technology sector performing strongly. The RMB exchange rate and asset prices showed positive resonance [1]. - The attractiveness of US dollar assets has been continuously weakening. The short - end interest rate in the US has been declining, and the risk - return ratio of US dollar assets has decreased. The RMB pricing range has shifted downwards, and the RMB is likely to be strong, have low volatility, and its center of gravity will gradually move down in the short term [3]. - In the context of a weak US dollar and changes in the domestic foreign exchange structure, the RMB will maintain a strong and low - volatility pattern in the short term, and the area around 7.00 will gradually become an important operating range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Economic Divergence between China and the US**: In December, the US labor market cooled, with the November unemployment rate at 4.6% and non - farm payroll growth slowing. The government shutdown and tariff policies affected enterprises, leading to a year - end correction in the US stock market. In China, the economy was stable, the manufacturing PMI rose slightly in December, the technology sector was strong, and A - share risk appetite improved [1]. - **Weakening of US Dollar Assets**: The short - end interest rate in the US has been declining, and the market has priced in a faster rate - cut path in 2026. Fiscal expansion and US Treasury supply pressure limit the decline in long - term yields. The risk - return ratio of US dollar assets has decreased, and cross - border capital allocation is being adjusted [2]. - **Changes in Foreign Exchange Supply**: In 2025, China's foreign trade performance exceeded expectations. In November, exports grew by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew by about 1.9% year - on - year. The 12 - month rolling trade surplus was close to $1.2 trillion. The surplus expansion changed the domestic foreign exchange structure, with more foreign exchange remaining in the banking and corporate sectors [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate Breakthrough**: At the end of December, the on - shore and off - shore RMB both broke through the 7.00 mark, breaking the 7.0 - 7.3 range that had lasted for more than a year. The RMB is likely to be strong, have low volatility, and its center of gravity will gradually move down in the short term, and 7.00 is becoming a new operating center [3]. Strategy - In the context of a weak US dollar and changes in the domestic foreign exchange structure, the RMB will maintain a strong and low - volatility pattern in the short term, and the area around 7.00 will gradually become an important operating range [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene processing fees remain low, and domestic pure benzene operations are still sluggish despite the rising ethylene cracking operations. Overseas refined oil crack spreads may reach the bottom. Meanwhile, domestic pure benzene arrivals are rising from the bottom, downstream pick - up is weakening during the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating rapidly to high levels. Styrene maintenance recovery is slow, with operations increasing slower than expected. CPL operations continue at a low level, terminal consumption is weak, and PA6 and nylon loads are low. Aniline operations are at historical lows, dragged down by the year - on - year decline in refrigerator production schedules. Phenol operations have rebounded from a low level, but PC operations are still average. Adipic acid operations are acceptable. [7] - Styrene port inventories have changed little, and the original inventory replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled. This is due to Bohua's short - term maintenance and the boost from previous styrene export orders. Downstream pick - up still has some resilience, but downstream operations are seasonally low. During the off - season, EPS operations have rebounded slightly, PS operations have increased again after inventory reduction, and ABS operations have remained low due to continuous inventory pressure. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Strategy Analysis - **Basis Status**: In December, the basis of styrene in Jiangsu against the EB2602 contract declined in the first and middle of the month and then rose to around +80 yuan/ton in the second half of the month. The basis of pure benzene in Jiangsu against the BZ2603 contract further dropped to the range of - 100 to - 150 yuan/ton. [12] - **Basis Analysis and Forecast**: In the first and middle of December, the styrene basis weakened due to the anticipation of inventory accumulation. However, in the second half of the month, it rebounded because of improved styrene exports and Bohua's short - term maintenance. It is expected that in January, as styrene operations further recover and it is the downstream off - season, the basis may fall to the range of +30 to +60 yuan/ton, depending on the styrene resumption rate. The pure benzene basis was dragged down by the further accumulation of port inventories to a historical high in December. In January, the port inventory pressure will continue, and the basis is expected to remain weak at - 80 to - 130 yuan/ton. [12] - **Basis Strategy**: For styrene, conduct a reverse spread on EB2602 - EB2603 when the spread is high, but it is currently at a low level. For pure benzene, continue the reverse spread on BZ2603 - BZ2605. [12] 3.2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period - Not summarized as the content mainly lists the figures without further text descriptions 3.3. Styrene Supply - **Production and Capacity**: Styrene monthly output was 1,457,526 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.93%. The plant operation rate was 70.70% (+1.57%). New capacity includes Guoen Chemical's 200,000 - ton/year EB/PO plant, which was put into production in early December. Future planned capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 30,000 - ton/year C8 extraction plant in 2026 and Huajin Aramco's 700,000 - ton/year ethylbenzene dehydrogenation plant in Q4 2026. [1][23] - **Import and Export**: Monthly styrene imports were 18,836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.00%, and exports were 23,688 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5780.29%. [1] 3.4. Styrene Downstream Demand - **Output**: EPS output was 380,286 tons (+12.52% y/y), PS output was 394,000 tons (+4.27% y/y), ABS output was 658,000 tons (+20.29% y/y), UPR output was 282,000 tons (-23.78% y/y), and SBS output was 103,386 tons (+20.90% y/y). [2] - **Operation Rate**: EPS operation rate was 43.64% (-8.92%), PS operation rate was 60.40% (+1.80%), ABS operation rate was 69.40% (-0.70%), UPR operation rate was 35.00% (-3.00%), and styrene - butadiene rubber operation rate was 80.80% (+1.42%). [2] - **Terminal Demand**: In December, the air - conditioning production schedule was still weak. From January to February 2026, the production schedule was flat year - on - year, with an increase in export plans, mainly dragged down by the high domestic sales base. [2] 3.5. Styrene Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Styrene inventory at East China ports was 138,800 tons (-500), and it did not further decrease in December, nor did it meet the pre - holiday inventory accumulation expectation. [3] - **Factory Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 171,760 tons (+800). Due to the slow recovery of styrene operations, factory inventory continued to decline. [3] 3.6. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - **Production and Capacity**: Pure benzene output was 1.936 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09%. The operation rate was 75.18% (+0.29%). New capacity concentrated production period has passed. In the first quarter of 2026, attention should be paid to the production progress of BASF's 150,000 - ton/year cracked pure benzene, Shandong Ruilin's 280,000 - ton/year thermal hydro - demethylated pure benzene, and Tangshan Mudi's 400,000 - ton/year disproportionated pure benzene. [4] - **Import and Port Inventory**: Monthly pure benzene imports were 459,625 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. East China port inventory was 300,000 tons (+27,000). In December, port inventory pressure further increased to a historical high due to arrival pressure and low downstream pick - up. [3] 3.7. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - **Output**: Caprolactam output was 560,000 tons (-9.13% y/y), aniline output was 303,000 tons (-9.62% y/y), phenol output was 487,000 tons (-2.77% y/y), and adipic acid output was 207,000 tons (+14.78% y/y). [4] - **Operation Rate**: Caprolactam operation rate was 74.04% (-0.12%), phenol - acetone operation rate was 81.00% (+2.50), aniline operation rate was 62.98% (+1.63), and adipic acid operation rate was 63.60% (+4.00). [4][5] - **Industrial Chain Conditions**: In the CPL industrial chain, caprolactam operations continued to decline, CPL factory inventory decreased rapidly, but PA6 and nylon filament factory inventory pressure remained. In the phenol - acetone industrial chain, phenol operations rebounded, driven by the rebound of bisphenol A, but PC operations were average. In the aniline industrial chain, aniline operations fell to a historical low due to MDI operations, but MDI factory inventory pressure eased. In the adipic acid industrial chain, operations increased slightly in December. [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - As of December 31, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate futures closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, with the futures price rising by 26.09% in November, and the futures premium over spot battery-grade lithium carbonate was 2,140 yuan/ton [1]. - On December 31, the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot was quoted at 118,500 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 115,500 yuan/ton, with spot prices rising following futures in December [1]. - As of December 31, the lithium spodumene price index was 1430 US dollars/ton; the average market price of African SC5% was 1300 US dollars/ton; the average CIF market price of Australian 6% lithium spodumene was 1640 US dollars/ton. In November, the lithium ore import market showed a simultaneous increase in volume and price [1]. - In December, the domestic lithium carbonate production was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. New production capacity in Hunan was released, and a factory in Jiangxi restarted production after ignition. High prices stimulated the production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants, and new production capacity continued to ramp up [2]. - Terminal demand remained high, but the production of material factories decreased slightly. Some downstream and battery factories announced maintenance plans at the end of the month, which would affect demand in January 2026 [2]. - The domestic lithium ore supply tightened, and the demand for lithium ore increased. The overall profit of the lithium carbonate industry improved, and the profit margins of self - owned mine and salt lake enterprises expanded, while the processing fees of contract - processing enterprises increased slightly [3]. - Inventories continued to decline during the month, and the de - stocking speed slowed down at the end of the month, so the inventory inflection point needed to be monitored [3]. - In December, the market price of lithium hydroxide rose significantly following lithium carbonate. The cost of lithium hydroxide production was rigidly supported, and the market bottom was solid. The supply in the spot market was tight, and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was limited [4]. - The current lithium carbonate futures price is mainly influenced by capital sentiment, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot, and short - term callback risks need to be vigilant [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices rose in December. The futures price showed an overall upward trend with a slight correction at the end of the month, and the spot price followed the futures [1]. - The price of lithium hydroxide also rose significantly in December, following the trend of lithium carbonate [4]. - The base difference between the mainstream brand of lithium carbonate and the futures main - contract closing price changed greatly in December, with the futures rising more and the spot rising slower. The base difference was expected to fluctuate widely between 2,000 yuan/ton and - 4,000 yuan/ton [10]. Supply - side Data - In December, domestic lithium carbonate production was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. New production capacity in Hunan was released, and a factory in Jiangxi restarted production. However, the production of a few enterprises was lower than expected due to maintenance [2]. - In November 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.187 tons. The main import countries were Chile and Argentina. The export volume of Chile to China decreased slightly month - on - month, while the import volumes from Argentina and Indonesia remained high [2]. Consumption Data - Terminal demand remained high, but the production of material factories decreased slightly. Some downstream and battery factories announced maintenance plans at the end of the month, which would affect demand in January 2026 [2]. - The increase in lithium carbonate prices made it difficult to find suitable - price spot orders. Downstream procurement was mainly based on long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials, and inventory was consumed. The signing of new long - term contracts was difficult [2]. Import and Export Data - In November 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.187 tons, mainly from Chile and Argentina [2]. Inventory Data - Inventories continued to decline during the month. According to SMM's monthly inventory statistics, the total inventory was 64,560 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,674 tons. The inventory of lithium salt plants was 22,530 tons, and the downstream inventory was 42,030 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down at the end of the month [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [4]. - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, the price showed a trend of being weak first and then strong in December. The supply and demand situation in January is complex, with both supply and demand increasing in the middle and late January, and attention should be paid to the price game. The supply in the first quarter of this year is relatively sufficient [1][2][3]. - In the egg market, the spot price fluctuated in the first half - month, declined rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand support during festivals is less than expected. The current egg market is in a seasonal consumption off - season with over - capacity [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: On December 31, 2025, the closing price of the live hog 2603 contract was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 545 yuan/ton from the previous month, a rise of 4.84% [1]. - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 11.67 yuan/kg, 11.90 yuan/kg, and 11.94 yuan/kg respectively. The prices in Henan and Jiangsu decreased slightly from the previous month, while that in Sichuan increased. The spot basis in different regions changed accordingly [1]. - Supply: In November, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 0.37% month - on - month; the elimination volume increased. The inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. In December, the average slaughter weight of live hogs increased slightly [2]. - Demand: In December, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 39.44%, an increase of 5.32 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Inventory: In December, the frozen product storage capacity rate of domestic key slaughter enterprises was 17.91%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [2]. Market Analysis - In December, the pig price was weak in the first half and strong in the second half. The supply rhythm of large - scale enterprises was different in the first and second half of the month. The consumption expectation during the Winter Solstice and curing season supported the price. The epidemic situation affected the slaughter structure, but the overall impact on price was controllable. The demand in December was in the seasonal peak, but the fresh sales rate was lower than last year, and the frozen product inventory digestion was not as expected [2][3]. - In January, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises is not large in the first half, and the tight supply of large hogs may be alleviated in the second half. The demand has pre - festival stocking support, but it is difficult to form a concentrated demand. The supply in the first quarter is relatively sufficient [3]. Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is neutral [4]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg futures main 2603 contract last month was 2,951 yuan/500 kg, a decrease of 160 yuan from the previous month, a decline of 5.14% [4]. - Spot: The egg spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong increased from the previous month, and the spot basis also changed accordingly [4]. - Supply: In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased by 0.92% month - on - month, and the elimination volume of old hens increased. The average elimination age decreased [4]. - Demand: The arrival volume in Beijing and Guangdong markets increased. The production - link and circulation - link inventories decreased [4]. Market Analysis - The egg spot price fluctuated in the first half of the month, declined rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The supply pressure decreased but was still at a high level. The demand support during festivals was less than expected, and the egg market was in a seasonal consumption off - season with over - capacity [5]. Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]. Table 1: Breeding Sector Basis - The current basis situation shows different changes in different regions for live hogs and eggs. The basis is expected to strengthen, and the basis strategy suggests that the breeding sector is in a situation of oversupply, and the seasonal consumption support has a stronger boosting effect on live hogs than on eggs. It is recommended to mainly adopt the reverse spread strategy [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, with stable and rising upstream operations. There is a short - term lack of obvious PDH loss - induced maintenance, but some PDH units are expected to be maintained in January, which may lead to a temporary shortage in the propylene market supply. The market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [4]. - Downstream device planned maintenance is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [4]. - The recent trend of international oil prices is weak, but geopolitical tensions are rising, which may increase oil - price fluctuations. Saudi Aramco has announced that the official CP price for January is $525/ton, a month - on - month increase of $30/ton, exceeding market expectations. The price of propane in the external market is expected to rise significantly, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. The market should pay attention to cost - side changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, cost - side support has increased, but supply - demand drivers are limited, and the market may fluctuate within a range. Wait for the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance. For inter - period trading, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high. There is no suggestion for cross - variety trading [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Strategy Analysis - The basis of propylene in the mainstream Shandong region against the PL2603 contract fluctuated widely in December. The basis strengthened in the early stage due to the divergence between the spot and futures trends of propylene, with the futures price continuously falling due to weak supply - demand expectations. The weakening of the basis in the later stage was mainly due to the boost in market sentiment and the recovery of cost - side support, which led to a rebound in the futures price and a structure where the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis in East China also fluctuated widely between 50 and 300 [11]. - There is a strong expectation of PDH device maintenance in the first quarter, and the price of propane on the cost side is rising. In the short term, the basis may continue to fluctuate weakly. The basis is expected to be mainly weakly fluctuating, and for the inter - period spread, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high [11]. II. Propylene Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - period Spread No specific summary information other than the data sources and chart titles is provided in the given text. III. Propylene Supply - As of December 2025, China's monthly propylene production was 5.4575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.33%. The propylene operating rate was 75.00% (+0.89%), among which the operating rate of PDH - produced propylene was 76.36% (+1.36%), the operating rate of methanol - to - propylene was 87.81% (-0.51%), and the operating rate of major refineries was 75.11% (+0.00) [1]. - The expected new production capacity of 500,000 tons of BASF in Guangdong has been realized. The production pressure in the first quarter is relatively small, but 2026 is still a domestic propylene production cycle, with an expected annual new production capacity of 7.36 million tons, and the nominal production capacity growth rate is 9.3% (the actual production capacity growth rate weighted by the production time is about 4.4%), significantly lower than the production capacity growth rate in 2025 [1]. - In terms of existing device maintenance, some PDH devices are expected to stop in January. Currently, one PDH unit of Jinneng Chemical and the PDH device of Guangxi Hongyi are under maintenance. Dongming Petrochemical and Binhuaxin Materials will gradually resume external sales after restarting. The planned maintenance volume of existing PDH devices is still small. As the CP price rises unexpectedly and compresses PDH profits, the market's expectation of PDH device maintenance has increased, and the market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [2]. IV. Propylene Import and Export - In November, the propylene import volume was 142,825 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.40%, and the export volume was 2,740 tons, a year - on - year increase of 920.97% [3]. - The increase in the propylene import volume in November compared to the previous month and the decrease compared to the same period last year were mainly due to the end of maintenance of some Korean devices in November, which increased the available supply and led to a slight month - on - month increase in the import volume [3]. V. Propylene Downstream Demand - In terms of downstream new production, a 300,000 - ton/year PO device of Lianhong was newly put into production in December. There will be less downstream production in the first quarter of 2026, and the new downstream production capacity will mainly be realized in the third and fourth quarters. The demand support from the new downstream production capacity of propylene is limited in the short term [3]. - In terms of downstream existing operations, the planned maintenance of downstream devices is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3][4]. - In December, the monthly production of PP pellets was 355,630 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%; the monthly production of PP powder was 30,780 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the monthly production of propylene oxide was 59,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.90%; the monthly production of acrylic acid was 34,280 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.75%; the monthly production of acrylonitrile was 404,166 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.43%; the monthly production of octanol was 27,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.85%; the monthly production of n - butanol was 22,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.95%; the monthly production of phenol was 48,710 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% [2]. - The weekly operating rate of PP powder was 38% (+0.69%); the weekly operating rate of propylene oxide was 74% (-2%); the weekly operating rate of acrylic acid was 79.85% (+0.43%); the weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile was 78.33% (-1.95%); the weekly operating rate of octanol was 82% (-3%); the weekly operating rate of n - butanol was 79.87% (+2.09%); the weekly operating rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+3%) [2]. VI. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene was 46,010 tons (-550), the in - plant inventory of PP powder was 30,050 tons (-7,116), and the in - plant inventory of acrylonitrile was 61,000 tons (-500). Currently, the in - plant inventory of propylene is still higher than the same period in previous years, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory before the increase in supply - side maintenance is realized. The pressure to reduce inventory of downstream PP is also relatively large, with the inventory of PP traders at a high level in the same period and the inventory of PP powder also relatively high in the same period [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment boost drives the polyolefin market to stop falling and rebound, but the change in the supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. - For PE, the supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited new planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand remains weak, and there is still pressure on price and inventory removal. - For PP, although there is an expectation of supply reduction and cost support, the short - term rebound depends on whether the scale of device maintenance can increase, and the price increase space is limited due to insufficient demand improvement. - Suggested strategies include short - term cautious short - selling hedging for LLDPE, waiting and seeing for PP, and specific operations for cross - period and cross - variety spread trading [3][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11）, PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27）. LL华北现货6300元/吨（+0）, LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50）, PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0）. LL华北基差 - 172元/吨（+9）, LL华东基差 - 72元/吨（ - 11）, PP华东基差 - 188元/吨（ - 17） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE上月产量301万吨（+12）, LLDPE产量143万吨（+9）, PE开工率84%（+0%）; PP上月产量356万吨（+9）, PP开工率77%（ - 3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3）, PP油制生产利润 - 415.5元/吨（+78.3）, PDH制PP生产利润 - 828.8元/吨（ - 35.7） [1]. - **Import and Export**: PE11月进口量106万吨（+5）, 11月出口量9万吨（+0）; PP11月进口量30万吨（+3）, 11月出口量26万吨（+2）. LL进口利润99.3元/吨（ - 2.5）, PP进口利润 - 351.2元/吨（+7.4）, PP出口利润 - 22.4美元/吨（ - 0.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率45%（ - 5%）, PE下游包装膜开工率49%（ - 2%）, PP下游塑编开工率44%（+0%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率63%（+0%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply and demand issues. In late December, it rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Only a new 50 - million - ton/year FDPE device of Zhanjiang BASF was put into production in December. In 2026, the new production slows down, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%. There is a new production vacuum period in Q1. The planned maintenance in January is limited, and the import window is open again, increasing supply pressure. Some devices may switch production [3]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the import volume was 106.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The import window reopened in December, and the expected increase in low - cost imported goods may impact domestic supply [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall downstream PE开工 continues to decline. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak, and the demand support remains weak [4]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory accumulates. The inventory removal of each link in the industrial chain may slow down, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure around the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply - demand imbalance. Near the end of the month, it rebounded, but the rebound height depends on whether the device maintenance can be realized [6]. - **Supply**: No new device was put into production in December. Only a 15 - million - ton external - propylene - purchasing PP device of Huizhou Lituo is expected to be put into production in Q1 2026, but there is uncertainty. The profit pressure may lead to more device maintenance [6]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import volume was 30.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.64%, and the export volume was 25.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.49%. The import window is not open, and the export may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工 is weak, except for BOPP. The policy in 2026 is beneficial to demand, but the overall support is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The upstream inventory pressure exists, and the inventory removal of each link is not smooth. There is still inventory removal pressure due to limited demand [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell and hedge for LLDPE at high prices; wait and see for PP, and pay attention to device maintenance and cost disturbances [8]. - **Cross - period**: Do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 contract spreads at high prices [8]. - **Cross - variety**: Do short - selling operations for the long - term L - PP spread at high prices [8]. 3.4 Polyolefin Basis Strategy - **PE Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of LLDPE continues to weaken. In January, the basis may fluctuate weakly in the range of - 100 to - 200. It is recommended to do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 spreads at high prices [13]. - **PP Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of PP fluctuates weakly in the range of - 130 to - 210. The basis may continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the realization of device maintenance, and the month - spread fluctuates within a range [13].