2025 年 05 月 13 日 天然碱产能释放驱动增长，高股息提升投资性价 比 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-05-12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 5.18 | | 总市值（亿元） | 194 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3739 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3318 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 4.97-8.14 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 272.29 | —远兴能源（000683.SZ）公司事件点评报告 远兴能源发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报：2024 全年公 司实现营业总收入 132.64 亿元，同比增长 10.13%；实现归 母净利润 18.11 亿元，同比增长 28.46%。2025Q1 单季度实现 营业收入 28.69 亿元，同比下降-7.33%、环比下降 0.8%；实 现归母净利润 3.39 亿元，同比下降 40%。 投资要点 ▌产能释放对冲价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Chengde Lululemon (000848.SZ) [1][10] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival, but cost benefits are gradually emerging. The total revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be 3.287 billion and 666 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [2][10] - The company is expected to continue its steady growth in almond milk products while launching new products that combine with coffee and tea, aiming to capture the health-conscious market [3][10] - The northern region is leading growth, with direct sales channels performing well, particularly through effective online strategies [4][10] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 1.002 billion and 215 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 18% and 13% respectively. The gross margin improved due to lower almond costs, while increased market investment raised expense ratios [2][3] Product Performance - Revenue from almond milk, walnut milk, and almond milk drinks for 2024 were 3.188 billion, 85 million, and 12 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 11.38%, -2.29%, and 248.62% respectively. The main product, almond milk, continues to grow steadily [3][10] Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from the northern, central, and other regions for 2024 were 2.990 billion, 191 million, and 106 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 11.73%, 9.16%, and 2.51% respectively. Direct sales channels showed strong performance, particularly through e-commerce platforms [4][9] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.67, 0.76, and 0.82 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times. The revenue growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 3.3% [10][12]

2025 年 05 月 13 日 全年利润释放，Q1 业绩短期承压 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-05-12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 24.37 | | 总市值（亿元） | 307 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1260 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1260 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 17.88-26.85 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 78.96 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 养元饮品 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《养元饮品（603156）：利润不 及预期，投资收益影响盈利》2024- 10-27 2、《养元饮品（603156）：业绩符 合预期，成本控制能力较强》2024- 08-26 3、《养元饮品（603156）：一季度 业绩稳增，高分红价值凸显》2024- 04-24 —养元饮品（603156.SH） ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 业绩短期承压，期待新品反馈 —承德露露（000848.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 23 日，承德露露发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报。 投资要点 ▌Q1 业绩表现承压，成本利好逐步显现 业绩符合预期，春节错期影响致 Q1 业绩承压。2024 年总营 收 / 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 32.87/6.66 亿元，分别同比 +11%/+4%；其中，2024Q4 分别为 11.28/2.47 亿元，分别同 比+23%/+27%。2025Q1 分别为 10.02/2.15 亿元，分别同比- 18%/-13%。Q1 毛利率提升受益于杏仁成本下降，市场投入加 大致费用率提升。2024 年毛利率/净利率分别为 41%/20%，分 别同比 -0.5/-1.3pcts ， 销 售 / 管 理 费 用 率 分 别 同 比 +1.1/+0.6pcts。2025Q1 毛利率/净利率分别为 48%/22%，分 别同比 +4.4/+1.4pcts ， 销 售 / 管 理 费 用 率 分 别 同 比 +2.1/+0.5pcts。经营净现金流表现稳健 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 2、大数据主题：近日，国务院常务会议审议通过《政务 数据共享条例(草案)》。会议指出，要在确保数据安全基础 上打通数据壁垒，推动公共服务更加普惠便捷。要构建全国 一体化政务大数据体系，推动数据资源融合应用，更好赋能 社会治理和繁荣产业生态，增强经济发展新动能。相关标 的：奥飞数据(300738)、浪潮信息(000977) 3、苹果链主题：据科技媒体报道，苹果首款折叠屏 iPhone 预计将于 2026 年秋季与 iPhone 18 Pro 系列和 "Air"系列机型一同发布。与此同时，标准版的 iPhone18 将为苹果折叠手机"让路"，推迟至 2027 年春季，与 iPhone 16E 的后续机型一同发布。随着折叠屏机型的加入，公司需 要重新规划产品发布时间表，以确保产品线的管理和市场推 广更加高效。相关标的：领益智造(002600)、长盈精密 (300115) 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 全年利润释放，Q1 业绩短期承压 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-05-12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 24.37 | | 总市值（亿元） | 307 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1260 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1260 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 17.88-26.85 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 78.96 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 养元饮品 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《养元饮品（603156）：利润不 及预期，投资收益影响盈利》2024- 10-27 2、《养元饮品（603156）：业绩符 合预期，成本控制能力较强》2024- 08-26 3、《养元饮品（603156）：一季度 业绩稳增，高分红价值凸显》2024- 04-24 —养元饮品（603156.SH） ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 业绩符合预期，盈利能力持续提升 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 13.15 | | 总市值（亿元） | 52 | | 总股本（百万股） | 394 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 394 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 7.96-15.15 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 107.21 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 李子园 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《李子园（605337）：成本受益 叠加费投优化，盈利能力提升》 2024-10-30 2、《李子园（605337）：费投力度 加大，利润承压明显》2024-08-28 3、《李子园（605337）：利润略不 及预期，直销渠道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance faced slight pressure, but overall profitability continues to improve. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 73.44 billion and 25.89 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9% and 13% [5] - The company is experiencing a stable growth in its product structure, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 13.76% while ordinary liquor revenue decreased by 6.53% in 2024 [6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages in product strength, brand power, and channel distribution, leading to continuous profit growth in the coming years [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 20.47 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.29 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 76%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 was 19.07 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, while sales collection was 78.34 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year [5] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 57.13 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 81.07%, while ordinary liquor revenue was 12.89 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 57.93% [6] - Revenue from direct sales (including group purchases) increased by 34.62% to 4.45 billion yuan, while wholesale and agency revenue grew by 8.01% to 65.57 billion yuan [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 3.26, 3.53, and 3.85 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [9][11]

2025 年 05 月 12 日 OpenAI 计划加大海外投资，持续看好 AIDC 环节 —电力设备行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) 5.6 -5.1 0.4 沪深 300 2.6 -1.9 4.9 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 ▌ 投资观点 从板块来看，我们认为柴发依然是量利齐升且逻辑最顺的板 块，推荐关注潍柴重机，其次建议关注渗透率逐步提升的 HVDC 环节，推荐关注科华数据、通合科技，最后建议关注伴 随功率提升而受益的服务器电源以及液冷环节，推荐关注英 维克（新能源车组覆盖）、申菱环境（新能源车组覆盖）、 欧陆通。 对电力设备板块维持"推荐"评级。 ▌ 风险提示 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：海外云厂 财报超预期，A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance faced slight pressure, but overall profitability continues to improve. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 73.44 billion and 25.89 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9% and 13% [5] - The company is experiencing a stable growth in its product structure, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 13.76% while ordinary liquor revenue decreased by 6.53% in 2024 [6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages in product strength, brand power, and distribution channels, leading to continuous profit growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's total revenue was 73.44 billion yuan, with a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% and 13% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 74%, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 35%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.26, 3.53, and 3.85 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [9][11] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 57.13 billion yuan, while ordinary liquor revenue was 12.89 billion yuan, with respective gross margins of 81.07% and 57.93% [6] - Revenue from direct sales (including group purchases) grew by 34.62%, while wholesale and agency revenue increased by 8.01% in 2024 [6] - The company's revenue from domestic sales reached 50.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%, while revenue from outside the province was 19.09 billion yuan, up by 1.31% [6]