[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《运营商投资向算力倾斜，AIDC 具 有持续性》，2025.3.29 2.《中国移动(600941.SH)：HBN 拉 动业务增长，算力转型走深走实》， 2025.3.28 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 我国手机直连卫星实验开始，天地融合通信闭环加速。4 月 1 日，我国成功将 卫星互联网技术试验卫星发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定轨道，发射任务获得圆满成 功。该卫星主要用于开展手机宽带直连卫星、天地网络融合等技术试验验证。我们 认为，如果此次实验成功，或意味着手机等终端将可以直接通过卫星开展业务。这 可能将从需求端拉动卫星互联网建设加速。1、卫星终端需求已被市场初步证实。 2 月 26 日，中国电信发布"20 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《中国旭阳集团（1907.HK）： 传统业务显韧性，新兴领域迎发 展》，2025.4.3 2.《兖矿能源（600188.SH）：成 本管控优异，成长空间广阔》， 2025.3.30 3.《煤炭周报：红利价值不改，把 握低位布局》，2025.3.30 4.《淮北矿业(600985.SH)：成本优 化对冲量价影响，多业务布局持续 成长》，2025.3.29 5.《煤炭周报：预期底部夯实，静 待需求复苏》，2025.3.23 煤炭开采 2025 年 04 月 06 日 煤炭周报：成本支撑显现，煤价 止跌企稳 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 终端需求持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.543 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.98%, but a net profit of 0.2 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 97.66% [4] - The company's coke business faced challenges due to falling prices, with an average price of 1,847.7 yuan per ton in 2024, down 16.1% year-on-year [4] - The chemical business outperformed the coke segment, with revenue of 20.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.97% [4] - The hydrogen energy segment saw a substantial increase in sales volume, reaching 20.1 million cubic meters, a growth of 212% year-on-year [4] - Future projections indicate a potential rebound in coke prices and an increase in revenue and net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 [4] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 47.543 billion yuan in 2024, with projected revenues of 48.323 billion yuan, 50.939 billion yuan, and 53.939 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The net profit is expected to recover to 508 million yuan in 2025, 850 million yuan in 2026, and 915 million yuan in 2027 [5][6] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 7.3% in 2024 to 8.9% by 2027 [6] - The company's total assets are estimated to be 64.620 billion yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 11.403 billion Hong Kong dollars [5]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 美国"吃亏论"或是伪命题 兼论美国制造业回流及关税叙事 [Table_Summary] 摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 深度报告 2025 年 04 月 03 日 宏观专题 核心观点:特朗普所提出的制造业回流与关税保护政策，即所谓"让美国再次伟大" （MAGA）的经济叙事，或是一个伪命题。美国是全球贸易受益者而并非输家，通 过产业结构升级，淘汰低端制造业，成功实现了服务业的高度繁荣和贸易顺差增 长。服务贸易的强劲顺差，尤其是美国在金融、技术、文化娱乐、旅游教育等服务 领域的绝对优势，使美国实际上成为全球贸易的最大受益者之一。特朗普的关税和 制造业回流政策，不仅未必能够带动经济增长和就业增加，还面临盟友反制、衰退 冲击、执政基础不稳等多重内外掣肘因素，从根本上难以实现。 MAGA 有关制造业回流及关税的叙事：特朗普发起的 MAGA 运动主张"让美国再 次伟大"，将提高关税、推动制造业回流作为其核心政策，强调这些政策 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a 25% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2024, reaching 9.026 billion yuan, and a remarkable 119.46% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.764 billion yuan [10] - The production of gold has increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with domestic mines contributing 3.91 tons (up 14.6%) and overseas mines contributing 11.25 tons [10] - The company has successfully reduced production costs, with the cost of gold sales approximately 278 yuan per gram in 2024, down from 280 yuan per gram in 2023 [10] - The company is expected to continue its upward trend in gold production, projecting a total of 16.70 tons for 2025 [10] - The rising gold prices, which have increased by approximately 17.5% since the beginning of 2025, are anticipated to further enhance the company's profitability [10] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 11.425 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to be 2.623 billion yuan [11] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 43.8% in 2024 to 51.7% by 2027 [11] - The company's net asset return is expected to rise from 13.1% in 2024 to 22.8% in 2027 [11] - The company has shown a strong cash flow position, with free cash flow increasing by 279.22% year-on-year to 1.749 billion yuan in 2024 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in production and cost reduction, leading to increased profits. In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.764 billion yuan, up 119.46% year-on-year [10] - The company's gold production has consistently increased, with a projected output of 16.70 tons in 2025, supported by internal exploration and external resource integration [10] - The rising gold prices are expected to continue benefiting the company's performance, with domestic gold prices rising approximately 17.5% since the beginning of 2025 [10] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 1,869.56 million [9] - Total market capitalization: 42.813 billion yuan [9] - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027: 11.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 13.8 billion yuan respectively [10] - Net profit forecast for 2025-2027: 2.623 billion, 3.121 billion, and 3.523 billion yuan respectively [10] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 43.8% in 2024 to 51.7% in 2027 [11] - The company’s cash flow from operations reached 3.268 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase in subsequent years [11]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2025年3月31日 IDC：供需格局改善，AIDC开启行业新周期 证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 0 核心逻辑 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。 1 IDC向AIDC演进，智算需求或推动行业景气度回暖。数据中心作为人工智能、云计算等新一代信息通信技术的重要载体，已经成为新型数字基础设施的算力底座，具有空前重要的战略 地位，堪称"数字经济发动机"。我国数据中心市场规模稳定攀升，2023年全国在用算力中心机架总规模超810万标准机架，同比增长25%，算力总规模达230EFLOPS，位居全球第二。 近些年，我国数据中心的快速供给也致使行业经历了短期的供给过剩。当前，在生成式AI浪潮下，智算需求的爆发或推动我国IDC行业景气度再次回升。 20-23年：新基建强供给&互联网监管弱需求， ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, with strong industrial production growth and continued high manufacturing investment, offsetting the negative impact of declining real estate investment[2] - The economy is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, indicating a systemic change in mid-term macro logic, suggesting it is time to adjust expectations[11] - Key factors influencing asset allocation include the emergence of AI applications, the unsustainability of high interest rates and a strong dollar, and the gradual reduction of negative impacts from real estate[11] Sector-Specific Recommendations - **Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH)**: The company is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of approximately 500,000 tons by June 2024, and is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the biodiesel market[14] - **Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH)**: The company is experiencing a supply-demand turning point with inventory at a low level, and is expected to benefit from a favorable long-term supply-demand structure[18] - **New Fengming (603225.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from a supply-demand turning point in polyester filament, with inventory levels remaining low and expected demand growth[21] Financial Performance Highlights - **China Mobile (600941.SH)**: The company reported a revenue of RMB 4,837 billion in the personal market, with a mobile ARPU of RMB 48.5, reflecting a slight decline of 1.62% year-on-year[24] - **Shandong Gold (600547.SH)**: The company's gold production increased by 10.51% to 46.17 tons in 2024, driven by improved mining capabilities and higher gold prices, with an average price of RMB 557.19 per gram, up 23.8% year-on-year[30] - **China Coal Energy (601898.SH)**: The company reported a coal production of 137.57 million tons in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 49.9%[32] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, economic recovery not progressing as anticipated, and fluctuations in raw material prices impacting profitability[8] - The company’s performance may be affected by uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and domestic price pressures, particularly in sectors closely tied to domestic demand[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with operating income of 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [5][6] - The investment income from the company's subsidiary, Giant Dragon Copper Industry, accounted for 74.72% of the net profit, with a total investment income of 1.928 billion yuan, an increase of 48.72% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its potassium salt production and has achieved a production target of 1.073 million tons, exceeding its goal [5] - The lithium segment is progressing with projects in Tibet, with significant lithium reserves and production plans in place [5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.251 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.79% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.580 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.56% [6] - Forecasted revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 3.036 billion yuan and 4.248 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.052 billion yuan and 5.415 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 49.6% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute gains of 9.78%, 16.42%, and 28.35% over 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively [4]

5[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 藏格矿业(000408.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 31 日 所属行业：有色金属/能源金属 当前价格(元)：35.81 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 藏格矿业 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.78 | 16.42 | 28.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 11.11 | 13.85 | 30.45 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 买入（维持） 1.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长；结则茶卡与龙 木错盐湖项目进展顺利》，2024.10.25 2.《铜行业跟踪：24Q3 降息影响定价， ...