Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - In February, M2 growth remained stable, M1 growth declined, social financing growth rebounded, and credit growth decreased. The demand for financing remains robust despite low new home sales, with replacement bonds and corporate loans substituting for each other [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the government bond net financing is strong, indicating that the demand for real economy financing is not weak. In January and February, a total of 854.2 billion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, contributing significantly to the increase in government bonds [3][16]. - The social financing pulse is showing signs of bottoming out and recovering, with M1 and corporate profits expected to trend upward. The report highlights the importance of monitoring M1, corporate profits, and price levels as key variables for economic recovery [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Events - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for February 2025 on March 14, 2025 [8]. 2. Loans: Replacement Bonds and Corporate Loans Substituting Each Other - In January and February, the new RMB loans amounted to 6.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion yuan. The structure of loans shows a decrease in short-term loans for residents and a steady demand for medium to long-term loans [10][11]. 3. Social Financing: Strong Government Bond Net Financing, Real Economy Financing Demand Not Weak - The new social financing in January and February reached 9.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32 trillion yuan. The report indicates that the strong net financing of government bonds is a major contributor to this increase [16][17]. 4. Deposits: M1 Growth Short-term Focus on Debt Reduction, Medium-term Focus on Prices - In January and February, new RMB deposits increased by 8.74 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in resident deposits. The report suggests that M1 growth will depend on debt reduction measures and the activity level of the real economy [22][23]. 5. Bond Market: Loose Credit May Drive Interest Rates Up, Favorable for Bond Allocation - The report discusses the government's intention to implement loose monetary policy as a means to achieve loose credit, which may lead to increased bond market supply and rising interest rates, benefiting bond allocation [27][29].

彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 白鑫 资格编号：S0120524080003 邮箱：baixin3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《光伏产业链发展良好，各环节降 价有望刺激 23 年需求》，2022.12.16 2.《风电行业策略年度报告-不惧一 番 寒彻骨，已闻梅花扑鼻香》， 2022.12.16 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 电气设备 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 3.《发挥新能源战略性新型产业优 势 ，推动扩大内需战略发展》， 2022.12.15 4.《内蒙古能源局印发实施细则推动 源网荷储、风光制氢等项目发展》， 2022.12.15 5.《11 月欧洲新能源车销量点评：环 比高增，政策收紧》，2022.12.15 电气设备 2025 年 3 月 16 日 硅料价格维持稳定，硅片价格探涨 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 如何看待特朗普冲击？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | 图 1：近两周全球主要股票市场指数涨跌幅（%） 4 | | --- | | 图 2：上周全球主要商品涨跌幅 4 | | 图 3：近两周美股小盘风格指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 4：近两周美股标普 500 行业指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 5：近两周港股风格指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 6：近两周港股行业指数涨跌幅（%） 5 | | 图 7：美股 VIX指数走势 5 | | 图 8：全球主要股票市场估值 6 | | 图 9：标普 500 股债收益比 6 | | 图 10：纳斯达克股债收益比 6 | | 图 11：恒生指数股债收益比 7 | | 图 12：恒生科技股债收益比 7 | | 图 13：美 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价 格震荡反弹》，2025.3.9 2.《煤炭周报：协会倡议书出台， 静待需求发力》，2025.3.2 3.《煤炭周报：政策&基本面共振， 看好煤焦钢估值修复》，2025.2.23 4.《煤炭周报："金三银四"旺季将 至，关注煤焦钢弹性》，2025.2.16 5.《煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税 支撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情》，2025.2.9 煤炭周报：进口煤管控开启，煤 价有望企稳 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 投资建议：2024 年 9 月政治局会议开启经济支持新篇章，结合近两年供给持续弱 化，煤炭板块基本面底部再度确认，市场对于 EPS 担 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhenyou Technology (688418.SH) [1] Core Views - Zhenyou Technology is positioned as a leading enterprise in satellite core networks and is expected to benefit from the growth of overseas business [3] - The company has a strong technological layout and is well-supported by policies promoting communication infrastructure [5] - The satellite internet demand is beginning to materialize, with significant user and terminal growth anticipated [5] - The company has secured key contracts, including the core network construction for the Tian Tong satellite project, establishing itself as a unique supplier [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhenyou Technology has focused on communication systems for 20 years, currently in an expansion phase [10] - The company has a stable shareholding structure and a management team with extensive industry experience [13] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 20.16% from 2019 to 2023, and is projected to achieve revenues of 949 million, 1,251 million, and 1,588 million yuan from 2024 to 2026 [16] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with projections of 26 million, 113 million, and 176 million yuan for the same period [16] Market Opportunities - The rollout of 5G-A is expected to drive growth in both public and private networks, with significant opportunities in specialized networks [29] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the satellite internet market, with a strong presence in overseas markets [5][12] Technological Edge - Zhenyou Technology is one of the few companies capable of providing IMS core networks and has a comprehensive range of 10G-PON products [5] - The company has established a strong technological barrier through continuous R&D investment, making it a key player in the satellite communication sector [22][39] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of satellite internet infrastructure and the expansion of its overseas business [5] - The market for specialized communication networks is projected to grow at around 10% annually, with significant demand for small base stations [43][45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a sustained increase in gold prices driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and ongoing de-dollarization trends, which are expected to support long-term growth in gold prices [5][7] - The report suggests that the recent rise in market expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by lower consumer price index (CPI) data, may lead to a rebound in gold prices after a period of fluctuation [7] - The report recommends several stocks in the gold sector, including Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and others, as potential investment opportunities due to favorable market conditions [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, showing a range of -18% to +24% compared to the CSI 300 index from March 2024 to November 2024 [3] Related Research - The report references two related studies: "Jinhui Co.: Industry Continues to Prosper, Company Performance on the Rise" and "Electrolytic Aluminum: Rapid Profit Expansion, Industry Prosperity Expected to Continue" [4] Investment Recommendations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various stocks, all rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance: - Shengda Resources: EPS 0.21 (2023), PE 69.57 - Yintai Gold: EPS 0.51 (2023), PE 33.38 - Hunan Gold: EPS 0.41 (2023), PE 58.51 - Hengbang Co.: EPS 0.45 (2023), PE 24.36 - Zhongjin Gold: EPS 0.61 (2023), PE 20.89 - Shandong Gold: EPS 0.42 (2023), PE 58.26 - Chifeng Gold: EPS 0.49 (2023), PE 38.53 - Zijin Mining: EPS 0.80 (2023), PE 20.86 [7]

Inflation Data Summary - In February, the U.S. CPI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to +2.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, down from +0.5% previously[3][5]. - The core CPI (excluding food and energy) in February recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, better than the expected 3.2% and down from 3.3% in January, marking the lowest level since May 2021[4][5]. Food and Energy Prices - Food inflation in February was +2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, while energy prices returned to negative growth at -0.3% year-on-year[5][8]. - Energy prices month-on-month increased by +0.2%, down from +1.1% in January, indicating a significant cooling in energy price growth[5][8]. Core Services and Goods - Core services inflation decreased slightly to 4.1% year-on-year from 4.3% in January, while core goods inflation remained stable at 0.0% year-on-year[6][7]. - The contribution rates to CPI from core services, core goods, food, and energy were +0.153%, +0.042%, +0.022%, and +0.012% respectively on a year-on-year basis[7]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the inflation data, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices saw increases of 1.22% and 0.49% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2%[4]. Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to remain below 3.0% for the period from March to November 2025, with December's CPI projected at approximately 3.1%[7]. - The probability of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) exceeding 2.5% over the next 12 months is expected to rise from 11.5% in October 2024 to 41.3% in February 2025[7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Baofeng Energy is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant growth in production and sales of polyethylene and polypropylene due to new capacity coming online [5][6] - The company reported a revenue of 32.983 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and a net profit of 6.338 billion yuan, up 12.2% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates continued improvement in profitability driven by the recovery of price differentials and the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.51%, 5.32%, and 5.64% over the last three months [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.708 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year but an increase of 18.0% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The production volumes for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 1.133 million tons, 1.173 million tons, and 7.039 million tons respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 35.0%, 56.7%, and 0.9% [5] - The average prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 7,089 yuan, 6,697 yuan, and 1,388 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +0.1%, -0.9%, and -11.9% respectively [5] Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully launched its first series of 1 million tons of coal-to-olefins in Inner Mongolia, with further expansions planned for 2025 [5] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned for growth with ongoing projects in Xinjiang and Ningdong, which are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [5][6] Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 14.305 billion yuan, 17.022 billion yuan, and 18.927 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 125.7%, 19.0%, and 11.2% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million yuan [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance profitability and support the strategic integration of the company's Sanqi business [6] - The stable landing of centralized procurement is anticipated to lead to a recovery in product prices, providing a favorable outlook for future earnings [6] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan and a net profit of 203 million yuan [6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3 yuan per ten shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 35.04% [6] - The company’s core products, including "Kun Traditional Chinese Medicine 1381," have shown significant growth, with combined revenue from key products increasing by 20% [6] Strategic Developments - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo into the company’s financials is expected to bolster profits and establish a benchmark in the Sanqi industry chain [6] - The company is focusing on brand building and channel development, which are progressing steadily [6] - The centralized procurement renewal in December 2024 has stabilized prices for key products, ensuring a stable revenue stream until December 31, 2027 [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 750 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.135 billion yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18, 15, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2][6] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.401 billion yuan (down 0.34% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 648 million yuan (up 19.86%) [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance profitability and support the strategic integration of the company's product lines [6] - The stable landing of centralized procurement is anticipated to lead to a recovery in the company's product prices [6] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 9.301 billion yuan, 10.102 billion yuan, and 11.041 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 747 million yuan, 912 million yuan, and 1.135 billion yuan [9] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3 yuan per ten shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 35.04% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 43.5% in 2024 to 48.2% by 2027 [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on brand building and channel development, with significant growth in key products such as "Kunchinese Medicine 1381" and "Shu Gan Granules" [6] - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to create a benchmark enterprise in the Sanqi industry chain [6] - The company has successfully maintained stable prices for its products under the centralized procurement policy, which is set to last until December 31, 2027 [6]